Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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Ralph Turner

#165
My West Region Projections (Games thru 11/04)
1. UW-Oshkosh 7-0 +                       WIAC Pool A
2. Linfield 7-1                                   NWC  Pool A
2. Wartburg 8-0                                IIAC Pool A
4. St. Thomas 7-1                             MIAC Pool A
5. St. John's 7-1 +                            Pool C
6. UW-La Crosse 7-2
7. Monmouth 8-1                               MWC Pool A (Projecting Monmouth over St Norbert)
8. Concordia-Moorhead 8-1           
9. UW-Platteville 6-3
10. George Fox 6-3   

Chapman 6-2                                    SCIAC  Pool A
Eureka   8-2                                      UMAC  Pool A

Ralph Turner

#166
My North Region Projections  (Games thru 11/04)
1. Mount Union 9-0             OAC Pool A
2. Wittenberg 9-0                NCAC Pool A
3. Trine 9-0                         MIAA Pool A
4. North Central 7-1
5. DePauw 8-1
6. Illinois Wesleyan 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1                    HCAC Pool A
8. Heidelberg 6-3
9. Wheaton (Ill.) 7-2
10. Millikin 7-2

Lakeland 7-2                            NACC  Pool A




CCIW  Still up for grabs

Ralph Turner

#167
My East Region Projections  (Games thru 11/04)

1. Delaware Valley 8-0                 (Widener at Del Val; winner take all)
2. Brockport 9-0                            Empire 8 Pool A
3. Springfield 9-0                           NEWMAC Pool B #2
4. Wesley 8-1                                 NJAC Pool A
5. Frostburg State 8-1
6. Husson 7-1 +                            ECFC Pool A
7. Union 8-1  7-2                            Hosting RPI for the Shoes & LL Pool A bid; RPI can earn the bid with a win.
8. Western Connecticut 7-2
9. Plymouth State 9-1                      MASCAC Pool A
10. Curry 7-2

Western New England  7-2                CCC Pool A bid   

bleedpurple

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2017, 01:55:29 PM
My West Region Projections (Games thru 11/04)
1. UW-Oshkosh 7-0 +                       WIAC Pool A
2. Linfield 7-1                                   NWC  Pool A
2. Wartburg 8-0                                IIAC Pool A
4. St. Thomas 7-1                             MIAC Pool A
5. St. John's 7-1 +                            Pool C
6. UW-La Crosse 7-2
7. Monmouth 8-1                               MWC Pool A (Projecting Monmouth over St Norbert)
8. Concordia-Moorhead 8-1           
9. UW-Platteville 6-3
10. George Fox 6-3   

Chapman 6-2                                    SCIAC  Pool A
Eureka   8-2                                      UMAC  Pool A

Ralph,
Just curious as to your reasoning for projecting UW-P to be regionally ranked and not UW-W, given:
Both teams are 6-3 and UW-W won the head to head match-up.
Common opponents: UW-W beat UW-L and UW-P lost to them.
Conference standings: UW-W is second in the WIAC (5-1) UW-P is tied for fourth (3-3)

I know these facts aren't criteria, but I would think they would matter.

cubs

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 05, 2017, 09:45:00 PM
Ralph,
Just curious as to your reasoning for projecting UW-P to be regionally ranked and not UW-W, given:
Both teams are 6-3 and UW-W won the head to head match-up.
Common opponents: UW-W beat UW-L and UW-P lost to them.
Conference standings: UW-W is second in the WIAC (5-1) UW-P is tied for fourth (3-3)

I know these facts aren't criteria, but I would think they would matter.
Pretty sure Ralph is using the last set of Regional Rankings that were released last week, and not predicting what this week's Regional Rankings might look like...
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2008-09 WIAC Pick'Em Tri-Champion

wally_wabash

I'm really interested to see what happens this week with Concordia-Moorhead and La Crosse, particularly if Whitewater gets ranked.  The SOS difference is still large (though not quite as large as last week), and the Cobbers have a favorable common opponent result (Whitewater).  We also know they don't take into account RRO in the first rankings (lazy, imo), but we could see UWW in and UWP out which swings an RRO win over to the Cobbers as well. 

What I'm saying is that I think C-M could and maybe should be ranked ahead of La Crosse- even if they end up losing to St. John's by a non-comical margin. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 05, 2017, 09:45:00 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2017, 01:55:29 PM
My West Region Projections (Games thru 11/04)
1. UW-Oshkosh 7-0 +                       WIAC Pool A
2. Linfield 7-1                                   NWC  Pool A
2. Wartburg 8-0                                IIAC Pool A
4. St. Thomas 7-1                             MIAC Pool A
5. St. John's 7-1 +                            Pool C
6. UW-La Crosse 7-2
7. Monmouth 8-1                               MWC Pool A (Projecting Monmouth over St Norbert)
8. Concordia-Moorhead 8-1           
9. UW-Platteville 6-3
10. George Fox 6-3   

Chapman 6-2                                    SCIAC  Pool A
Eureka   8-2                                      UMAC  Pool A

Ralph,
Just curious as to your reasoning for projecting UW-P to be regionally ranked and not UW-W, given:
Both teams are 6-3 and UW-W won the head to head match-up.
Common opponents: UW-W beat UW-L and UW-P lost to them.
Conference standings: UW-W is second in the WIAC (5-1) UW-P is tied for fourth (3-3)

I know these facts aren't criteria, but I would think they would matter.
Quote from: cubs on November 05, 2017, 10:11:32 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 05, 2017, 09:45:00 PM
Ralph,
Just curious as to your reasoning for projecting UW-P to be regionally ranked and not UW-W, given:
Both teams are 6-3 and UW-W won the head to head match-up.
Common opponents: UW-W beat UW-L and UW-P lost to them.
Conference standings: UW-W is second in the WIAC (5-1) UW-P is tied for fourth (3-3)

I know these facts aren't criteria, but I would think they would matter.
Pretty sure Ralph is using the last set of Regional Rankings that were released last week, and not predicting what this week's Regional Rankings might look like...

Cubs is correct.  With only 5 Pool C bids,  three strong Pool B candidates (undefeated UMHB, undefeated Springfield and HSU #2 in the South Region), and potentially an undefeated CWRU from the Pres AC, I only see other 3 Pool C bids to award.

I posted my update to prompt some discussion on how tight this is gonna be!

More accurately, I might "reserve" one of those Pool C bids for the winner of the Concordia-Moorhead/ Johnnies game.

Bombers798891

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2017, 02:17:54 PM

7. Union 8-1                                     Hosting RPI for the Shoes & LL Pool A bid


Union is 7-2 and eliminated from Pool A contention. A Union win gives Ithaca the Pool A

USee

I am skeptical it will get to this but if LAX and Wheaton are on the table as 2 loss pool C candidates, I think there is an interesting discussion. Of course a lot can happen but when Depauw loses to my good friends in Crawfordsville this weekend and if IWU beats Millikin,  Wheaton stands to be the highest rated team in the north after IWU. IWU will be 2-1 v RRO's (assuming UWW ends up ranked) and will get selected early. The East and CWRU will have a lot to say with what's left but  if the cards fall right, those two could be there at the end.

ITH radio

Wally -

I'm guessing in the Rd 2 ERR's you'll see West Conn, Curry and Union drop out. Plymouth St will move up one, Fram St will get a spot, and my guess is barring a huge surprise of a 8-1 SUNY-M team, WNE and RPI round out the Top 10.
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Ralph Turner

#175
Quote from: Bombers798891 on November 06, 2017, 09:03:18 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2017, 02:17:54 PM

7. Union 8-1                                     Hosting RPI for the Shoes & LL Pool A bid


Union is 7-2 and eliminated from Pool A contention. A Union win gives Ithaca the Pool A
+1, thanks Bombers and good luck!

MRMIKESMITH

Quote from: ITH radio on November 06, 2017, 09:58:23 AM
Wally -

I'm guessing in the Rd 2 ERR's you'll see West Conn, Curry and Union drop out. Plymouth St will move up one, Fram St will get a spot, and my guess is barring a huge surprise of a 8-1 SUNY-M team, WNE and RPI round out the Top 10.

I think an 7-2 Albright or Widener team may get consideration. I would also think my Gulls may get some consideration as well.

wally_wabash

Quote from: MANDGSU on November 06, 2017, 10:50:35 AM
Quote from: ITH radio on November 06, 2017, 09:58:23 AM
Wally -

I'm guessing in the Rd 2 ERR's you'll see West Conn, Curry and Union drop out. Plymouth St will move up one, Fram St will get a spot, and my guess is barring a huge surprise of a 8-1 SUNY-M team, WNE and RPI round out the Top 10.

I think an 7-2 Albright or Widener team may get consideration. I would also think my Gulls may get some consideration as well.

Albright is out of play.  Widener can only qualify automatically with a win this weekend.  A loss and they're definitely out also. 

Salisbury needs to win, probably impressively.  The at-large scenario in the East is fairly thin behind Springfield.  Salisbury could definitely leapfrog all the way up behind Springfield in the at-large line with a win this weekend. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Quote from: ITH radio on November 06, 2017, 09:58:23 AM
Wally -

I'm guessing in the Rd 2 ERR's you'll see West Conn, Curry and Union drop out. Plymouth St will move up one, Fram St will get a spot, and my guess is barring a huge surprise of a 8-1 SUNY-M team, WNE and RPI round out the Top 10.

You might also see Wesley go in front of Springfield. Those SOS's traded places this week.  Does Springfield at 4E instead of 3E make them less sexy for the second Pool B?  Maybe?  Would that even matter?  I think it does for Frostburg. 

But then Springfield is going to get a boost on Saturday with MIT while Wesley is about to eat the 9 Ls on William Patterson's record, so nevermind.  Any swapping due to SOS fluctuation will be undone after Saturday anyway.  Scratch all of that.   :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wesleydad

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 06, 2017, 03:26:17 PM
Quote from: ITH radio on November 06, 2017, 09:58:23 AM
Wally -

I'm guessing in the Rd 2 ERR's you'll see West Conn, Curry and Union drop out. Plymouth St will move up one, Fram St will get a spot, and my guess is barring a huge surprise of a 8-1 SUNY-M team, WNE and RPI round out the Top 10.

You might also see Wesley go in front of Springfield. Those SOS's traded places this week.  Does Springfield at 4E instead of 3E make them less sexy for the second Pool B?  Maybe?  Would that even matter?  I think it does for Frostburg. 

But then Springfield is going to get a boost on Saturday with MIT while Wesley is about to eat the 9 Ls on William Patterson's record, so nevermind.  Any swapping due to SOS fluctuation will be undone after Saturday anyway.  Scratch all of that.   :)

Wally, Wesley plays CNU on Saturday.  Already ate the 9L's from willy p.