Great Lakes Region

Started by sac, February 21, 2007, 06:46:48 PM

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dcahill44

Quote from: sac on February 08, 2016, 12:31:50 AM
per the whole conversation about great records and poor SOS.  There are 4 of those types of teams to watch how they're ranked on Wednesday.

NE---Johnson & Wales    19-1    .455
E-----Lancaster Bible      17-0    .421
GL---John Carroll            21-0    .498
GL---PSU-Behrend         18-1     .418

It is baffling to me that a team in the East like Lancaster Bible doesn't get in over a team that has 6-7 losses. I mean if a team that is undefeated cant get into the rankings that tells me the NCAA has to go back to the drawing board and find different criteria. Another example Penn St Behrend a team who was 19-1 going into the rankings in the Great Lakes cant get into the top 9 in there region!! I just think its a bit ridiculous that NCAA is rewarding teams that have a bunch of losses over teams that win the games on there schedule.

I get the SOS factor but reward teams that win there games. Its not like these teams can just go join the NESCAC or UAA OR SUNYAC or other really good conferences.

Lancaster and Behrend also ranked top 15 and top 25 in the D3hoops poll.

rant over.

would love to here what people think

scottiedawg

A given team's strength of conference has a huge influence on that teams' potential SOS.

Additionally, other factors can limit a team's flexibility in increasing their SOS  (geography, budget, etc).

That said, the NCAA wants to select the best teams for the tourney (is that a fair assumption??).  To select the best teams, you have to evaluate not purely wins, but the quality of those wins.

If they're selecting a 6-7 loss team over a 0-2 loss team like Lancaster or PSU-B, it must be because the evaluation of their criteria and the weightings of said criteria indicate that the 6-7 loss team is a better team.   

I'd be interested if anyone has done research on whether WPCT or SOS is more indicative of wins in the NCAA tournament. 

I have no inside info, but I would bet that in any NCAA criteria discussions they have made statements like "really, any "win" versus a bottom 100 or 150 D3 team doesn't tell us anything about the winning team"

It's definitely a tough discussion that doesn't arise in major sports, or even in D1 bball.  D3 has so much variation between quality of teams.

dcahill44

Good stuff and good explanation. It is a great debate

scottiedawg

Yep, I think the NCAA has settled on RPI for D1 selection.

Matt Snyder uses RPI to generate his D3 rankings.   http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Now I'm not sure if he's trying to predict the actual D3 tourney field.....but the RPI numbers probably do as good a job as any one stat on ranking all teams based on their D3 resume.

Lancaster Bible is in the 70s
PSU-B is in the 110s

RPI says they are not tourney quality teams.

Again, I'd be fascinated to see how these small conf, 22-2 bad SOS and middling RPI teams have fared against 17-8, great SOS, decent RPI teams, big conf teams in the tournament.

KnightSlappy

Quote from: scottiedawg on February 11, 2016, 11:48:44 AM
Yep, I think the NCAA has settled on RPI for D1 selection.

Matt Snyder uses RPI to generate his D3 rankings.   http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Now I'm not sure if he's trying to predict the actual D3 tourney field.....but the RPI numbers probably do as good a job as any one stat on ranking all teams based on their D3 resume.

Lancaster Bible is in the 70s
PSU-B is in the 110s

RPI says they are not tourney quality teams.

Again, I'd be fascinated to see how these small conf, 22-2 bad SOS and middling RPI teams have fared against 17-8, great SOS, decent RPI teams, big conf teams in the tournament.

My use for RPI is as a quick guide to 'rank' teams with zero thought (or personal bias). It gets us closer than ranking by winning percentage or alphabetical order. It's a good starting place before adjusting for results versus regional rankings, head-to-head, and common opponents.

sac

Went through and added the current RRO's for each team   First parenthesis is RRO's with bold being wins, second parenthesis is games remaining not including conference tournaments.

As far as rankable teams in this region, this is pretty much it.  I even added Wittenberg and they would be a big long shot even if they won out their regular season.  Even if Trine lost again Saturday to Alma I would not be surprised if they remained #9.

Two changes would be compelling and that's Marietta to #1, JCU to #2 (which gets settled tomorrow anyway)  and I would look hard at Alma to #4, Hope #5.

1.  John Carroll          2-0 (Marietta, Mt. Union)      (Marietta, Mt. Union)
2.  Marietta                4-1 (Catholic, John Carroll, Wooster, Mt. Union, Mt. Union)      (John Carroll)
3.  Ohio Wesleyan     4-2 (Alma, Trine, Wooster, Hiram, Wooster, Hiram)         (none)
4.  Hope                    3-1  (Alma, Trine, Alma, Trine)     (none)
5.  Alma                     5-3 (Ohio Wesleyan, Elmhurst, North Central, Texas Lutheran, St. Norbert Hope, Trine, Hope)        (Trine)
6.  Wooster               2-4 (Ohio Wesleyan, Salisbury, Marietta, Hiram, Ohio Wesleyan, Hiram)        (none)
7.  Mt. Union              1-4 (North Central, Chicago, John Carroll, Marietta, Marietta)      (John Carroll)
8.  Hiram                    2-2 (Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster, Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster)     (none)
9.  Trine                     0-4 (Ohio Wesleyan, Hope, Alma, Hope)      (Alma)

PSU-Behrend             0-0     (none)        (none)
Mt. St. Joseph            0-1  (Marietta)
Hilbert                        0-0          (none)       (none)
St. Vincent                  1-1  (Marietta, Catholic)     (none)
Wittenberg                 1-3  (Ohio Wesleyan, Hiram, Wooster,, Ohio Wesleyan)      (Wooster, Hiram)

sac

If Trine wants any shot at all at a pool C they really have to win at Alma Saturday.

Hopester

Quote from: sac on February 12, 2016, 02:05:35 PM
Went through and added the current RRO's for each team   First parenthesis is RRO's with bold being wins, second parenthesis is games remaining not including conference tournaments.

As far as rankable teams in this region, this is pretty much it.  I even added Wittenberg and they would be a big long shot even if they won out their regular season.  Even if Trine lost again Saturday to Alma I would not be surprised if they remained #9.

Two changes would be compelling and that's Marietta to #1, JCU to #2 (which gets settled tomorrow anyway)  and I would look hard at Alma to #4, Hope #5.

1.  John Carroll          2-0 (Marietta, Mt. Union)      (Marietta, Mt. Union)
2.  Marietta                4-1 (Catholic, John Carroll, Wooster, Mt. Union, Mt. Union)      (John Carroll)
3.  Ohio Wesleyan     4-2 (Alma, Trine, Wooster, Hiram, Wooster, Hiram)         (none)
4.  Hope                    3-1  (Alma, Trine, Alma, Trine)     (none)
5.  Alma                     5-3 (Ohio Wesleyan, Elmhurst, North Central, Texas Lutheran, St. Norbert Hope, Trine, Hope)        (Trine)
6.  Wooster               2-4 (Ohio Wesleyan, Salisbury, Marietta, Hiram, Ohio Wesleyan, Hiram)        (none)
7.  Mt. Union              1-4 (North Central, Chicago, John Carroll, Marietta, Marietta)      (John Carroll)
8.  Hiram                    2-2 (Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster, Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster)     (none)
9.  Trine                     0-4 (Ohio Wesleyan, Hope, Alma, Hope)      (Alma)

PSU-Behrend             0-0     (none)        (none)
Mt. St. Joseph            0-1  (Marietta)
Hilbert                        0-0          (none)       (none)
St. Vincent                  1-1  (Marietta, Catholic)     (none)
Wittenberg                 1-3  (Ohio Wesleyan, Hiram, Wooster,, Ohio Wesleyan)      (Wooster, Hiram)

For Hope, it will be of great benefit for either Albion or UW LaCrosse to sneak into the rankings at some point. That could help significantly in comparing to John Carroll or OWU.
Its a great day to be a Dutchman!

sac

I would say Albion is a real long shot to ever be ranked with a current 10-9 in-region record.  LaCrosse is a maybe but there would have to be some big losses by a couple of  Chicago, Aurora, North Central and Carroll with LaCrosse winning out probably.

scottiedawg

#1839
Heidelberg 87, Mount Union 70

Albion 81, Olivet 66

Penn St Behrend 87, Mt Aloysius 76

Hiram 78, Oberlin 68

Ohio Wesleyan 105, Alleghany 84

Marietta 86, John Carroll 81

UW La Crosse - OW Oshkosh: http://sidearmstats.com/uwlax/mbball/

Trine - Alma: http://www.goalmascots.com/sports/mbkb/2015-16/boxscores/20160213_0uvb.xml

Hope - Adrian: http://livestats.hope.edu/bb/

Wittenberg - Wooster: http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2015-16/boxscores/20160213_vche.xml

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Marietta has put their foot on this region. Wow.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Fifth and Putnam

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 13, 2016, 09:51:04 PM
Marietta has put their foot on this region. Wow.

Certainly a surprise to me considering the losses this team took heading into the season between graduation and other issues. I really thought they'd still be a good squad, finish in the top 3 of the OAC and maybe sneak out an at-large bid if they could get to 20 wins. Here they are now at 21-2 and one hand on the OAC title probably sitting on top of the Great Lakes Regional Rankings next week. Heck of a job by Coach VanderWal and crew.

sac

St. Vincent beating Marietta now becomes the most baffling loss of the season.

sac

1.  John Carroll---lost--lost
2.  Marietta---won--won
3.  Ohio Wesleyan--lost--won
4.  Hope---won--won
5.  Alma---won--won
6.  Wooster---lost--won
7.  Mt. Union---lost--lost
8.  Hiram--won--won
9.  Trine---lost--lost

PSU-Behrend---lost--won
Mt. St. Joseph---lost--won
Hilbert---idle--won
St. Vincent---won--lost

Still don't think anyone outside the already ranked nine has the criteria to be ranked next week.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: sac on February 14, 2016, 02:04:54 AM
St. Vincent beating Marietta now becomes the most baffling loss of the season.

Yes... but in a season like we have with parity... there are hundreds of those games around the country.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.