MIAC 2016

Started by gustiefan04, August 28, 2016, 11:18:14 AM

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CarlEtonDad

RE: Seems like it's one of those years for them. I expect luck to swing their way as the conference season continues.

gustiefan04

Some interesting MIAC matches this weekend....

Hamline vs MAC - The pipers are maybe the biggest surprise of the year so far...If HU can muster a tie or even a win in this one, it would be HUGE. Hammies are scoring at will leading the MIAC with 24 goals scored on the season.

Carelton vs SJU - SJU looking to rebound. They seem to have been in every game so far, with the results just not falling their way. Carleton also looking to pick up their first MIAC win of the season.

GAC vs St Thomas - Gustavus needs a W. Hopefully UST is starting their annual slide back to mediocrity a little early this year.

St. Marys vs Bethel - Meh...

Concordia vs St. Olaf - Ditto

repete

Glad to see SJU finally show up with a league W, although it appearerd like another tie might be fair. Wondering how it was getting to that game with the early arriving football tailgaters for the 16K at Clemens.

gustiefan04

Looks like the Johnnies had an exciting match down in Dubuque, but weren't able to hold on for the result.

MAC draws with St. Olaf, putting UST in the drivers seat. UST still has MAC, Olaf and Carleton and a few bottom table teams on the conference schedule. So certainly some opportunity to drop points.

GAC with an important win over Carleton. Gusties have a pretty favorable schedule to close out conference play and can hopefully continue to improve and build on these last two victories to close out he season strong and get into the MIAC tourney.

Carleton on the other hand, could very well miss the conference tournament without some HUGE wins down the stretch. The CarlEy's still have to play, MAC, UST, Olaf and St. Mary, who all sit at the top of the conference currently....ouch

CarlEtonDad

Things are looking a little grim at the moment for the Knights, but I suspect the group will turn things around in a hurry and qualify for the playoffs. If not, the Knights will look back at some of the close games thus far and kick themselves that they couldn't salvage better results.

Here is where I think everyone will finish

1. MAC: The most consistent and best team in the MIAC
2. UST: right there with MAC, impressive run of shutouts
3. Gustavus: they'll emerge as #3 in the standings and gain some momentum with the friendlier back half of their schedule
4. St. John's: another solid campaign
5. Carleton: the game at Bell vs. Olaf will be large, I suspect it will swing in the Knights favor on alumni weekend
6. St. Olaf: jury is still out on this side who were none too impressive out of conference
7. Hamline: Don't let their poor record fool you. They are still contenders.
8. St. Mary's: I just don't buy it. Not yet.
9. Augsburg: they've actually only won 3 games this year
10. Bethel: they'll muster up a few more points but not playoff contenders
11. Concordia: Halfway through the season and they haven't put the ball in the net yet. Has there ever been a scoreless MIAC season??

CarlEtonDad

Unfortunately tuned into the 2nd half and OTs for the CarlEton vs Hamline match today. Slow and boring game, finished 0-0. Neither team looked very positive. The Knights had a little bit more of the ball but couldn't connect anything in the final third. Their only offense was forcing the ball up each wing and sending hopeful balls into the penalty area. And the service was terrible today. Nonetheless, a draw is better than a loss for the Knights who are very much alive with 8 points and 4 matches remaining.


repete

#21
Don't know what to think about the Jays: Lose at home to Bethel and win on road at GAC. From what I've seen they are just inconsistent in the attacking third.

Looks like the Gusties were a bit flustered, but I didn't see the match. Stats don't seem to support Mike's claim of second-half domination. Interesting card stats, though it sounds like the first red was tactical:

GACM     #3    John Anderson     Red card    19:41
GACM     #5    Jack Conroy     Yellow card    32:50
SJU     #15    Ryley Sullivan     Yellow card    47:44
GACM     #12    Arthur Parens     Yellow card    72:06
GACM     #9    Henry Brose     Yellow card    86:34
GACM     #9    Henry Brose     Red card    86:54

gustiefan04

I was able to catch a good portion of the match...

Game started pretty even until the take down in the box, awarding SJU the PK and a Red card to Gustavus. From the video feed, the call looked legit. The Johnnies had control of the rest of the first half.

Second half, Gustavus came out with a slightly different formation, and had probably 60%+ possession, but were only able to muster a couple of good scoring opportunities. The Johnnies seemed content to sit in and counter. I suspect with the 1 goal lead they didn't see the need to press, and GAC couldn't seem to get enough players forward to get on the end of some decent crosses.

Although the distribution of cards seems really uneven looking at the box score, I would say that both teams were pretty chippy as the game wore on.

Unfortunate result for GAC as a win would have put some separation between them and the rest of the pack, and put the Gusties in a very good spot for MIAC playoffs.

Johnnies did what they needed in this one to get the W, and in my mind this was a must win for them if they are to qualify for the MIAC playoffs, as they still have MAC and STO left to play in conference. Two games that will be very tough to sneak out some points.

CarlEtonDad

Mammoth road win for the Knights! Great goal from Griese who has 6 points in the Knights last 3 fixtures (2G, 2A). It was clear that Mac had an athletic advantage at several positions but the teams were very even technically. So a good result for the Knights.

Mac has several solid attacking players but they don't combine to do anything dangerous. The team lacks an elite distributor to put their size and speed in the right attacking positions. Everyone is forced to create their own offense individually. They can't seem to get any shots off and everything from 35 yards and in turns into a scrum. Winning the scrums in front of goal and the set piece is the extent of their attack.

It was better tonight from CarlEton, which had a lot to do with the return of 3 key starters (including both captains). There was a lot more patience on the ball all over the field with the freshman Younkins continuing to take charge of the midfield. They moved it from side to side, got the ball into the wide areas, and were always looking to shoot or play a dangerous ball. Playing with the lead definitely helped. Keep in mind this Knights team has allowed just 8 goals in 14 games. This includes 4 consecutive shutouts and just one game that they've conceded multiple goals. Impeccable!!! Especially considering the amount of change in the Knights back line due to injuries. CarlEton has started 7 different defenders and only 1 defender has started every game this season. A large part of the defensive success is a credit to Brandon Hilliard, whose presence in net has been outstanding! The junior goalkeeper played the part again as he confidently intercepted crosses and covered up the ball in the penalty area countless times. The Knights are tough to beat with Hilliard in goal and when they defend this tough.

That said, the game was very even, with Macalester having 3 legitimate scoring chances in the last 20 minutes. The Knights were coming undone as Scots were streaking wide open on set plays. Macalester found another gear that they usually bring much earlier in the match (It was lackadaisical from the Scots for most of this one.) The best chance came with ten minutes left when a looping cross was met with a thumping heading from 6 yards out that skidded off the crossbar and over and went begging into the brisk St Paul night. CarlEton survived the barrage for a 1-0 win.

The result really clears our view of the six playoff teams! We'll just have to see if they each hold up and how the seeding shapes up in the coming weeks.

CarlEtonSon

Hamline and Concordia were the spoilers this weekend, Hamline spoiling the Johnnies' chances of a high-playoff seeding and Concordia spoiling Bethel's shot a .500 record and improving self esteem. Mac falls to third with a disappointing draw against a gritty Augsburg team but still has a reasonable chance at a first round bye with tuesday's 1v2 Tommies v CarlEton matchup. The Tommies' D-1 transfer-laden ship continued to run full steam ahead by brushing aside St Mary's and CarlEton's underperforming undergrads are starting to get hot at the right time with two big wins on the last two saturdays. UST ended CarlEton's season last year so the knights will be out for revenge. My prediction is 3-2 CarlEton. The Tommies will go up 2-0 but will be down to ten-men after Erickson is sent off with two yellows, one for excessive celebration and one for being a total dick. Without their spiritual leader the Tommies will crumble under sustained pressure with the a hat trick from Kevin DoyHole off 2 assists from Mark Moth and 1 from John PetMe making this the greatest day in Evanston history.

CarlEtonDad

Another classic alumni weekend for the Knights! I have to praise my son for his insights but scold him for his vulgarity and crude humor. Amazing that CarlEton is in 2nd place with 2 games to go! It seems this team shows up when it matters most. That was true on Saturday when they made the Oles look like Northfield's middle school team. Although that is nothing new as the Oles have embarrassed themselves in their last 5 games at Bell Field.

Here's a reminder of the last time St 0 visited CarlEton (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7DZnw4S5_I). How did that go again? If you don't remember, they lost to the Knights in a down year and then they were embarrassed on their home field in the playoffs. Both spoiled their at-large chances. Haven't seen another hype video in a while.

I expect the Knights to keep the train moving against St Thomas (who still could blow the MIAC). I will take the Knights 2-0 and goals from Roth and Onuoha.

gustiefan04

St. Thomas has secured the regular season championship. At worst, they would finish Co-Champs, assuming Carleton and/or MAC can win out and the Tommies lose their last two games (which is pretty unlikely).

Carelton certainly has found their stride at the right time, with the UST game shaping up to be HUGE.

The MIAC playoff's should produce some very tight and exciting matches over the next few weeks. Just a few weeks ago, I would have said its very unlikely that 2 MIAC teams make the NCAA. But it seems more feasible now that someone could upset UST and get the AQ, and leave the Tommies vying for a Pool C.

CarlEtonDad

I agree that the MIAC will send 2 teams this year. It would take a Tommie-like collapse to keep UST out of the NCAA tournament. As long as they don't lose their last two regular season games, they should be fine.

Tomorrow is a big day for everyone. I've been pretty on point with my analysis all season so I'm going to put my money where my mouth is with some score predictions.

Hamline  3  @  Bethel  1

Concordia  0  @  Gustavus  2

Macalester  1  @  St. John's  1 -- 2OT

St. Thomas  0  @  CarlEton  2

St. Olaf  2  @  Augsburg  1  --  OT

CarlEtonDad

Heydt with a great goal but he certainly is winning the award for the biggest bitch on the field.

CarlEtonSon

I have to praise my dad for his insights but scold him for his vulgarity. He's not wrong, though.