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Messages - Smitty Oom

#1216
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
February 20, 2017, 10:23:34 PM
Despite rattling off 13 straight wins, the Knights and The Goat BeltTM could only manage a 3rd place finish in the competitive and balanced MIAC this year. Actually quite the impressive run considering they started 1-6 in the conference, but most of those loses can be contributed to the Knights not wielding The Goat BaldricTM! The MIAC playoffs start tomorrow night when the #6 Augsburg Auggies come to Northfield in a third attempt to take The Goat BeltTM away from the #3 Carleton Knights.

Since the MIAC champ will be taking The Goat BeltTM to the NCAA's here is the MIAC Playoff Website, that contains a preview of the tournament.
#1217
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
February 20, 2017, 10:13:50 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 20, 2017, 07:03:51 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 20, 2017, 01:43:04 AM
While exceptions could be made for BeltTH holders who pulled obvious upsets and then almost immediately lost ItTM, anyone who has successfully defended The BeltTM /sup] (sorry - by decree of Just Bill, as long as Carleton can succeed in defense, it shall be known as The Goat BeltTM ) as many times as they have should not just be in the top 25 but probably the top 10! ;D

The Goat BeltTM is not getting proper respect! :o ;D  At least Carleton did rise from 1 point to 8 points.

Could not agree more!! The Goat BeltTM has been playing some punishing D and rebounding at an unbelievable clip, both things will get you far this time of the year. Interestingly enough Bethel also had 9 votes, topping MIAC foes Carleton with only 8 and St. Thomas with 2.
#1218
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
February 20, 2017, 12:28:30 AM
Quote from: Darryl Nester on February 19, 2017, 05:35:20 PM
How They Fared (Complete)

Top 25

Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#1614Babson24-1def. Coast Guard, 103-88; def. #28 MIT, 70-67
#2611Whitman25-0def. Lewis and Clark, 97-73; def. George Fox, 109-95
#3573Christopher Newport23-2won at Southern Virginia, 69-45; won at York (Pa.), 70-59
#4528UW-River Falls22-3LOST at #31 UW-Eau Claire, 80-83; won at UW-Platteville, 65-61
#5520Whitworth22-3def. George Fox, 91-70; def. Lewis and Clark, 82-73
#6483Rochester21-3def. Carnegie Mellon, 82-67; LOST to Case Western Reserve, 72-76
#7450Washington U.20-4won at New York University, 91-66; won at Brandeis, 95-91
#8431Ramapo23-2won at Rowan, 90-71
#9426Marietta21-4def. Muskingum, 94-76; def. T#34 Ohio Northern, 100-85
#10410Middlebury22-3won at Plattsburgh State, 91-70; def. Bates, 88-84
#11373Salisbury19-6LOST at St. Mary's (Md.), 73-85; LOST at Frostburg State, 80-86 OT
#12320Benedictine21-4def. Lakeland, 78-67
#13295Tufts20-5def. Hamilton, 81-63
#14290St. Norbert19-4def. Lake Forest, 64-58; def. Beloit, 73-62
#15281Susquehanna21-4LOST at Scranton, 66-75; won at Elizabethtown, 82-69
#16247Hope20-5def. Kalamazoo, 72-65; LOST to Calvin, 62-65 OT
#17199UW-Whitewater20-5LOST to UW-Oshkosh, 63-67; def. #31 UW-Eau Claire, 70-68 OT
#18194Amherst17-7LOST to Williams, 69-76
#19165Denison21-4def. Hiram, 80-66; def. Wabash, 76-65
#20137Neumann23-2def. Cabrini, 73-69; won at Marywood, 86-66
#21130Swarthmore20-5won at Haverford, 86-63; LOST at Franklin and Marshall, 66-93
#2288Hanover21-3won at Mount St. Joseph, 72-64; won at Bluffton, 65-64
#2384Augustana18-6LOST at North Park, 82-87 OT
#2483Wesleyan19-6LOST to Trinity (Conn.), 49-51
#2559Claremont-Mudd-Scripps19-4LOST to Cal Lutheran, 58-61; def. Chapman, 62-50


Others receiving votes
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#2647Guilford20-5LOST to Emory and Henry, 60-65; won at Bridgewater (Va.), 63-57
#2718New Jersey City20-6def. Stockton, 73-63; def. Stockton, 97-87
#2817MIT19-6def. Emerson, 74-70 OT; LOST at #1 Babson, 67-70
#2914Brockport19-6LOST to Cortland, 74-79; def. #32 Oswego State, 80-75
#3010Ohio Wesleyan19-6won at Wittenberg, 72-70; won at Allegheny, 110-55
#318UW-Eau Claire18-7def. #4 UW-River Falls, 83-80; LOST at #17 UW-Whitewater, 68-70 OT
#325Oswego State19-6won at SUNY Geneseo, 80-75; LOST at #29 Brockport, 75-80
#334John Carroll17-7won at Heidelberg, 88-75; LOST to Capital, 75-76
T#342Endicott20-5def. Salve Regina, 79-44; def. Western New England, 84-72
T#342Illinois Wesleyan     16-8LOST at Wheaton (Ill.), 67-81; LOST to North Central (Ill.), 80-82 OT
T#342Ohio Northern16-9def. Otterbein, 98-55; LOST at #9 Marietta, 85-100
T#342St. John Fisher20-5def. Elmira, 75-63; won at Stevens, 94-86 OT; won at Hartwick, 90-88 OT
T#342St. Thomas19-6LOST at St. Olaf, 65-74; def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 65-57; won at Concordia-Moorhead, 81-70
#391Carleton17-8def. Concordia-Moorhead, 84-58; won at St. Olaf, 67-49; won at Gustavus Adolphus, 63-60

Will be interesting to see what happens to Carleton in the polls today...They have to be one of the hottest teams in the nation currently. They will be on more ballots for sure this week around but will it be enough to get into the top 25? Probably not, but a strong case could (and should IMO) be made for them.
#1219
Quote from: UWSAlum on February 19, 2017, 04:02:52 PM
UMAC Conference Tournament is all set up.

Quarterfinal
Monday, February 20, 2017

7:30 - (5) Morris (14-11) at (4) Northland (13-12)

Semifinals
Wednesday, February 22, 2017

7:30 - (3) St. Scholastica (16-9) @ (2) Bethany Lutheran (17-8)
7:30 - Winner of Quaterfinal @ (1) Northwestern (18-7)

Championship
Saturday, February 25, 2017

7:30 - Winners of Semifinals games (@ Highest Remaining Seed)

Who gets the AQ out of the UMAC in your opinion UWS? Northwestern?
#1220
Quote from: Drake Palmer on February 17, 2017, 03:57:54 PM
Wow, what a great way to wrap up the season!  Since the weather is going to be decent tomorrow, maybe  a short road trip to Northfield to watch the Oles take on the Dawgs in a fight for the playoffs.  Or, perhaps a little bit longer drive to St. Peter to watch the Knights defend possession of that glorious item that shall not be named  ;D( or at least until I learn how to use the trademark code) against the Gusties.  Or, stay in town and watch the Pipes play the neighbors from the south end of Snelling – the Scots.  Decisions, decisions! Nice!

Carleton is for real.  Their young guards Joh Farmer & Henry Bensen have grown immensely since the beginning of the year when UST abused them at Carleton.  Senior guards Mitch Biewen, Peter Bakker Arkema & Beau Smit have been solid. FY small forward Kent Hanson has exploded over the last half of the season and uses his "leftiness" to a great advantage. And then you add Twin Tower Freddie Gillespie to the mix with Kevin Grow, and this is a very dangerous team. It's gotten to the point that JR forward Ryan Casperson rarely gets off the bench.

Can the once proud Gusties stop this Knight Train and proudly hoist the objectTM that cannot be named for an entire off season?

A lot of great games most of them with a lot on the line! I would be most interested in the Dawgs and Oles. Who will have the big game and will their squad into the playoffs for a chance at the MIAC ship? My guess is the Oles sneak out a big win. Would be hard to see a team that swept the Tommies miss the playoffs...

Carleton has put a stranglehold on The BeltTM and I would love for them to bring ItTM into the MIAC playoffs, but having ItTM hang out in St. Peter for the summer isn't a bad consolation prize!
#1221
Region 9 women's basketball / Re: MIAC
February 17, 2017, 07:51:07 AM
Don't follow the men's as closely as the women's.... what are the chances BU gets a Pool C birth?
#1222
Quote from: Pat Coleman on February 15, 2017, 04:09:38 PM
Regional rankings: http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2017/02/men-regional-rankings-second

I am kinda shocked to see the SCIAC have 3 teams, including La Verne and Pamona Pitzer ranked. PP has only played 17 regional games. I'm probably very biased but I think Bethel sitting at 19-6 should be regionally ranked next week, although their sub. 500 SOS sure isn't helping. Carleton's hot streak should also be taken into consideration. Maybe a W-L in last 10 as a criteria to be added? What teams are playing well as of tourney time. Or is that flawed?

EDIT: Those teams had higher SOS than I thought. I assumed since CMS had such a low SOS, LV and PP would as well. How does the committee treat a team like PP who played 5 games, which is a lot of games, that presumably don't count as they were against non-D3?

Getting one or two of those teams ranked would be good for MIACs Pool C chances to increase W vs. RRO.
#1223
Games tonight provided clarity into the playoff situation.

St. Thomas beats SMU at home and keeps pace, needing a win in Moorhead on Saturday to secure the Number 1 seed and keep the hopes at a Pool C alive

Bethel wins on senior night agaisnt the Cobbs. Game felt more of blowout then it actually was. Great game by Magnuson in his limited minutes, never seems to play more than 25 minutes on any night. The bigs for the Cobbs were out matched. Congrats to Trevor Hall on his 1000 point and both Hall and Wjota on senior night, both have been outstanding players for the Royals the past four years and helped bring this program to were it currently is. Although finishing the regular season at 19-6, I think the sub .500 SOS leaves them out of Pool C birth, which is too bad this is a very tough game, the loss against meddling Heidelberg to start the season is hurting the resume. Best case scenario for their Pool C birth is they beat Carleton and lose to St. Thomas which probably brings the SOS over .500 and ends at 20-7 (WP .740) but that still probably isn't enough with only one win against RRO. St. Thomas loses on Sat. and they claim the first non-purple regular season title and one seed in 12 years...

Carleton keeps rolling and playing stifling D. They lead the MIAC (and currently 6 in nation, could climb to 3 by the end of the season) in scoring defense at 61.8 points per game. They also have a +7.8 rebound margin per game, can you say winning formula? They appear to be locked in at the three seed no matter the outcome Saturday. This streak is unbelievable right now and they have to be one of the hottest teams in all of D3. Would be interesting to see what happens if they beat the sixth seed and Bethel (could end up being a W vs. a RRO...) and a loss to St. Thomas in the champion ship. The last two games help and already impressive .540 SOS for the Knights. They would then be 18-8 vs. D3 (WP of .692) which is probably not goo enough for a Pool C birth, although winning what would be 15 straight. Too bad, I want to see them make some noise in the NCAA, they will have to do it the old fashioned way with the AQ!

St. John's beats Hamline to secure the 4 seed and at least one home playoff game. Hamline came sneaking back in here but fell just short at the end. St. John's has no Pool C hopes but could be a dangerous team in the playoffs if Stokman and company get hot. Interesting to see John Oliver play 32 minutes tonight, box score said he did well!

Hamline clinches a playoff birth by sneaking in the backdoor. A win Sat. will secure them a 5 seed. Not going over tiebreaks should they finish at a tie at 10 wins. Although they swept the Oles and Cobbs and got swept by the Auggies I believe.

Last playoff spot is up for grabs:
Saturday games are Auggies at Oles and Tommies at Cobbs.


  • Auggie wins and they get it.
  • Oles win and Cobbs lose, Oles get it.
  • Oles win and Cobbs win, Cobbs get it.

It is anyones guess to what will happen but my guess is AUG has best chance as they control own destiny.

As far as NCAAs go, at best we will get 2 bids and more than likely just 1 if St. Thomas wins the AQ.

Another great MIAC season coming down to a close. I will be in Moorhead to celebrate Coach Rich Glas' last career regular season game, and hopefully not last!  What a career he has had with 600+ total wins!

#1224
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
February 15, 2017, 11:17:50 PM
Quote from: AO on February 15, 2017, 11:02:28 PM
I can confirm the goat has been taken by the Carls for the first time in 6 years and the Belt™ has been defended.
 

Not pictured is Coach Guy Kalland off in the corner of the gym shinning The BeltTM and preparing it for the game against the MIAC Playoff eliminated Gustavus Gusties... Could The Dream ScenarioTM happen on Saturday? Personally I came into this season excited for the possibility, but I don't want to see this Carleton streak end!
#1225
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
February 15, 2017, 02:13:29 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 15, 2017, 12:33:52 PM
Warning: long, nerdy post!

I analyzed the data regarding Pool C selections over the last four seasons (2013-2016).  This graph shows WP & SOS of teams that were candidates for Pool C, and whether or not they were selected.  Moving up or to the right indicates a stronger resume.

The top left represents teams with good records but soft schedules, and the bottom right includes teams with so-so records versus tough schedules.  We could find lots more mediocre teams that didn't make the field to fill out the bottom and left portions (except for the extreme top-left), but I included only about 40 per season. 


If the image doesn't display above, it's located here: http://imgur.com/a/5UxNp

The solid line is the generic bubble mark (50% shot at getting a Pool C berth), and the dashed lines above and below represent 90% and 10% chances, respectively (without considering the number of qualified bubble teams that year)  The moderately-sloped portions toward the center of the 50% and 90% lines represent the "2 wins [or .080 WP] equals .030 SOS" principle.  Moving toward the edges, the slopes change in ways that represent that the committee values a balanced resume more than one with either a weak SOS (and a great record) or a weak WP (against a tough schedule). 

For any engineers, etc. interested in the gory details, the formula is as follows:
P = SOS - 3/8*(1-WP) - 1.2*max(.720-WP,0) - 1.5*max(.510-SOS,0)
The first two terms are .030 SOS = .080 WP, the next term penalizes WP<.720 and the last penalizes SOS<.510. 
Fitting a single-variable logistic regression model to the outcomes (bid or no bid) yields the probabilities.

The outliers of teams that would appear less qualified but got in were as follows:
Randolph '13 (.714, .520, 4-5), which the model gives only a 5% chance
Bowdoin '14 (.792, .503, 1-3) 10%
Wittenberg '14 (.750, .517, 3-6) 21%

On the flip side, the teams that appear deserving but didn't get in were:
Albright '13 (.769, .546, 3-1) 88%
Buena Vista '13 (.720, .563, 1-2) 87%
Carroll '16 (.800, .530, 0-3) 83%
Thomas More '13 (.846, .512, 1-3) 82%

Overall, it's interesting that there were very few outliers in the last couple of years, perhaps indicating a shift to a more quantitative approach by the national committee.  This model does reasonably well despite not including results versus regionally ranked opponents (and Carroll's lack of a vRRO win last year helps explain why they got left out), although my current one does consider that.

I wasn't following D3 as close during the '13 season but I would be interested to know what the committees reasons were for leaving Albright out and putting Randolph in. Any of you guys know?

Oohh and Fantastic... as a math major I thoroughly enjoyed this post and graph. Well done!
#1226
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on February 14, 2017, 11:22:03 AM
Quote from: AO on February 14, 2017, 11:10:59 AM
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on February 14, 2017, 10:58:16 AM
So what's the BU tiebreaker with Carleton, should BU drop their last game vs. Concordia and end up with the same record, given that they split in the regular season head to head?
Carleton would get the 2 seed since they beat the Tommies.

1. Results head-to-head amongst all teams tied.
2. Combined results against teams above those tied.
3. Results against teams above those tied in rank order. (In the case of a multiple tie the teams that remain after this breaker will return to breaker #1 and so forth).
4. Record against teams below tied teams in descending order.
5. Random draw.

Thanks AO.  So BU needs to close out a Cobber team that needs 1 more win, and is sure to view BU as the more likely opportunity than UST...fun!

This is what February Bball is all about! Robertson Center should be a fun place to be Wed. night!
#1227
Quote from: txg on February 14, 2017, 10:37:08 AM
Quote from: Smitty Oom on February 13, 2017, 05:44:18 PM
If you don't mind and it isn't too difficult... could you lay out the Massey probabilities each team makes the playoffs?

That would be very difficult with all the tiebreaker scenarios.  UST, Bethel, Carleton in, STJ and Hamline practically in.  For this simplistic analysis I'm assuming Carleton beats St. Olaf, which I think very likely.

Oles need to beat Auggie and have the Cobbers lose out.  About 40%.

If Oles beat Auggie, Cobbers need one more win to clinch as they have the tiebreaker with STO.  If Auggie wins, Cobbers need to beat the Tommies to get in.  They would win that tiebreaker if Bethel finished first.  About 35%.

That leaves 25% for Augsburg.

This is very rough and also takes the Massey probabilities as given (including STO 72% over Augsburg which seems too high).

It does seem quite high.. My personal take would be basically 50/50 neutral court, swing it maybe 60/40 given the home court for the Oles. but the Massey probably gives St. Olaf higher rank/probability due to their higher SOS and non-conference schedule.
#1228
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on February 14, 2017, 09:01:54 AM
Wow, given the UST loss last night, Bethel has to be kicking themselves for that road loss to Concordia earlier this year.  They could be looking at a 1 seed if not for that clunker.  Unfortunately, the Tommies will close out with 2 wins and lock it up.

Impressed by the fight that Gustavus is showing late in the year with nothing on the line.  They took UST to the last second a few games back, and played a tough 40 minutes vs. BU last night.  Well done.

What about St. Olaf and Coach Koz has them able to see past the purple reign and play their best games against the Tommies??.... Either way a season sweep of the 11-time MIAC champ isn't too shabby. Big win for their playoff outlook.

Concordia, STO and Auggie all have hard games coming down the stretch... Concordia probably being the hardest but they are the six seed currently. I think that if the Cobbs get one win of the two remaining they will be the 6 seed. If not it will come down to the winner of the Ole-Auggie matchup on Saturday.

Hamline vs. St. John's on Wednesday suddenly comes down to a fight for the 4th seed and the ability to host a playoff game! This will most likely be a preview of the 4-5 game in the first round of the playoffs and SJU won an exciting game in OT first time around in Hutton.

I watched the end of the MAC-SJU game and wow how entertaining was that? I will say that the Scots were playing as if it was their MIAC Championship game! Very inspired and a HUGE student section as far as MAC goes! Finally seeing the talent of MAC coming along, possibly giving Auggie all they can handle and knocking them out of the playoff hunt Wednesday! The bottom of the MIAC has to be some of the talented teams/rosters in all of D3, especially given the fact it is one of the largest conferences in the nation.
#1229
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
February 13, 2017, 10:52:00 PM
Quote from: sac on February 13, 2017, 09:41:57 PM
Carleton 84  Corn 58

The Carleton train rolls on.  I believe Carleton has clinched a spot in the MIAC tournament if they already hadn't.  With two games to go the scenarios are getting clear.

Carleton wins their next two they carry The BeltTm into the MIAC Tournament

Carleton travels across town to St. Olaf on Wed.  If St. Olaf wins the Oles would just about qualify for the playoff but would have a game with Augsburg who is technically still alive for a playoff spot.

Carleton travels to Gustavus Adolphus on Saturday , Gustavus has been eliminated from playoff contention.


There was also mention of a goat on the broadcast.  I....have no idea.

The cross town rivalry in the D3 hotbed of Northfield, MN is home to this beautiful trophy for the two basketball teams. The Goat!



Coach Guy Kalland defeated his alma mater today (Yes he is a fellow Cobb!) as the Knights shoot it crazy from deep, for a team not known for its 3-pt shooting. That coupled with the great defense Coach Kalland hangs his hat they are tough to beat...

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 13, 2017, 10:22:49 PM

That game against the Golden Gusties could be the golden opportunity for The Dream ScenarioTM.

Yes Gustavus is just bad enough at being good that they could swipe The BeltTM from the Knigts who are rolling... What a game that would be if Carleton holds on to it Wednesday.
#1230
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
February 13, 2017, 06:35:13 PM
I know it is not likely... But if RIC and Amherst are trying to reschedule the game, when is the last date a regular season game could be played? Is it Saturday?