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Messages - Titan Q

#8161
Region 8 women's basketball / Re: CCIW
November 27, 2009, 02:39:10 PM
Rog, there are a few different ways to calculate # of possessions in a single boxscore, or a season cumulative boxscore.  The one I have used is:

Possessions = FGA - Off Reb + T.O. + (.475 * FTA)

Last season on the men's board, Dan Sand posted offensive and defensive Points per 100 Possession throughout the season...

Quote from: dansand on February 12, 2009, 10:23:33 PM

Overall   Offense   Defense
---------------------------
Team       P/100P    P/100P
Augie...... 108.7      93.0
Carthage... 109.7     106.2
Elmhurst... 113.3     103.9
IWU........ 109.3     104.0
Millikin...  98.2      97.7
NCC........ 109.3      99.5
NPU........ 103.8     114.1
Wheaton.... 114.2      93.5
                  
CCIW      Offense   Defense
---------------------------
Team       P/100P    P/100P
Augie...... 104.0      94.1
Carthage... 109.4     109.2
Elmhurst... 112.0     105.1
IWU........ 111.5     112.3
Millikin...  97.3     106.4
NCC........ 108.5     103.9
NPU........  99.5     120.4
Wheaton.... 108.3      97.9
---------------------------
CCIW Avg... 106.3     106.3


Factoring in possessions is definitely the best way to evaluate a team's offensive and defensive efficiency, in my opinion.
#8162
I told a friend of mine a few days ago that the IWU/UW-Whitewater line is Warhawks -24.  The average of the Triple Take predictions is 26...

Ryan's take: UW-Whitewater 38, Illinois Wesleyan 14
Keith's take: UW-Whitewater 49, Illinois Wesleyan 21
Pat's take: UW-Whitewater 38, Illinois Wesleyan 13


http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2009/11/27/triple-take-round-2-a-close-eye-on-the-road/


Whitewater's smallest margin of victory this year is 24...

at Dickinson St.  W, 38-3     
Midland Lutheran  W, 58-0     
Puget Sound   W, 42-7     
UW-Platteville   W, 35-3     
UW-Eau Claire   W, 38-14     
UW-Stout   W, 38-3     
UW-River Falls   W, 38-14     
UW-Stevens Point   W, 41-12     
UW-Oshkosh   W, 40-7     
UW-La Crosse   W, 58-21     
Lakeland  W, 70-7     


The Titans need to find a way to withstand that initial Whitewater blow, then settle in and make a few things happen...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1pGoHSz6rw
#8163
Quote from: dad of a titan on November 27, 2009, 08:02:46 AM
Game time yet ??

Not quite...but we're getting there.

Might want to make sure #80 doesn't load up on Thanksgiving leftovers today.  Gotta get that Tryptophan out of his system!
#8164
Respectfully, Izzy, I just don't think that is a rational assessment.  I mean, you're saying Olivet Nazarene should be compared athletically to University of Illinois, just because both give athletic scholarships.  We all know those two schools are not in the same "group" though...for a bunch of reasons.

I just look at it from a common sense standpoint.  Consider what would happen if Olivet Nazarene head coach Ralph Hodge tried to recruit current high school seniors Jereme Richmond (Waukegan) or Meyers Leonard (Robinson).  He'd get laughed at.  Heck, he'd get laughed at if he tried to recruit the kids mid-major Illinois State goes after.  Olivet Nazarene can't touch an Osiris Eldridge or Jeremy Robinson...not even close.

In general, Olivet Nazarene recruits the same level of kids the CCIW schools do.  The list of high school seniors that IWU and ONU have gone head-to-head on in the last 15 years is a long one.  Most recently, IWU won the battle for Sean Johnson (Washington, IL) and lost on Jordan Harks (Glenbard South).  A few years back, Scott Trost landed Zach Freeman (Normal Community), who ONU pursued aggressively.  Olivet has certain competitive advantages over a D3 like IWU when it comes to getting good players (scholarships being a biggie), but a school like IWU also has its own competitive advantages vs ONU.  IWU junior Doug Sexauer was recruited hard by St. Xavier, and had a scholarship to SXU...but he's at IWU.  At the small college level, scholarships are not the end all, be all.  

To me, when you "group" schools, you have to do so based on what caliber players each can reasonably attract.  Blackburn can't get a high school basketball player Illinois Wesleyan wants...can't even touch him.  Yet Blackburn and IWU are both non-scholarship schools.  On the flipside, IWU can get a kid Olivet Nazarene wants...even though IWU can't give scholarships and ONU can.  And as I mentioned above, ONU can't begin to pursue a kid Illinois State wants...even though both are in the "scholarship" world.      

One final thought...

Many Division III fans think that every kid at an NAIA school, like a St. Xavier or Olivet Nazarene, has a full scholarship.  The reality is that very few NAIA student-athletes are going to school for free.  Coaches divide out money, not scholarships...one kid might get a 75% scholarship, another 50%, another 25%, etc...very rarely does an NAIA student-athlete have a "full scholarship."  The final price tag differential between an NAIA and a D3 is not always huge...sometimes yes, always no.  

The nephew of a good friend of mine was making a college decision between St. Xavier and UW-Whitewater 3 years ago.  The kid was a stud high school offensive lineman who got some D1 looks, but no offers.  The parents were shocked to learn that the final cost at D3 Whitewater was significantly cheaper than NAIA St. Xavier...even though he was given an athletic scholarship at SXU.  He ended up choosing Whitewater.  It would surprise many here to know that this type of thing actually happens on occasion when an SXU or ONU competes for a kid with a few of the CCIW schools.  (Not as often as when going up against a WIAC, but it does happen.)  

Bottom line, I think there are a lot of misconceptions out there about NAIA athletic scholarships.
#8165
Quote from: y_jack_lok on November 25, 2009, 03:30:37 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on November 25, 2009, 02:33:35 PM
To me, Western Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville are on the extreme low end of low-D1. I believe top-15 caliber D3 teams - like the best in the CCIW, WIAC, and UAA - are better than these teams.  

TQ, I don't know how far, geographically, your D3 exploration goes, but from reading the ODAC board so far this pre-season/early season, they think they have one of the top conferences in the country. If you haven't already, you might enjoy peeking in on what those folks are saying.

I enjoy exploring, y-jack.  I've been to 10 of the last 12 D3 Final Fours and a dozen+ Sectionals over the course of the last 20 years (from Randolph-Macon, to Roanoke, to UW-Platteville, to Wooster, etc).  I always like learning more about the different teams, leagues, regions, etc.

It certainly sounds like the ODAC is one of the best leagues in D3 this season.  It has emerged as a "power conference" (if that is a term used in D3) over the course of the last 5 years or so.
#8166
I understand your points, hope, and I think they're fair.  Here is my take, for what it's worth...

In my opinion, a team good enough to contend for the SLIAC title (which I believe most think Webster is this year), should compete very well with a team expected to be near the bottom of the CCIW.  For example, Fontbonne vs Illinois Wesleyan last year (I saw both multiple times) would have been a good game...Fontbonne tied for 1st in the SLIAC, IWU finished 7th in the CCIW.  I believe it's accurate to say the SLIAC #1 usually equals about CCIW #7.   Looking at Webster vs Millikin, if there was a line on the game last night, it might have been Millikin -3 or so (the 3 due to the game being in Decatur).   I guess I just can't see that called a "great win", when the teams are pretty even.   To draw a Division I analogy, if Murray State (the favorite in the Ohio Valley Conference this year) beats Northwestern, is that really a "great win"?  I guess some might say "yes" because Northwestern is in the Big Ten...but is Northwestern any good?  Just a matter of semantics really.

To your point about low-D1 vs top D3's...

Last year when Millikin beat new D1 SIU-Edwardsville, I think it caught a lot of people by surprise because Millikin has been a CCIW bottom-feeder for a decade now.  So yes, I would call that a "great win" for the Big Blue.  Had Wheaton or Elmhurst or Augustana done the same last year, I don't think it would have even been a big upset.  "Good win"...sure.  "Great win"...no.

Keep in mind, there are differing levels within what is called "low-D1."  To me, Western Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville are on the extreme low end of low-D1.  I believe top-15 caliber D3 teams - like the best in the CCIW, WIAC, and UAA - are better than these teams.  (That should change as those programs build...Jim Molinari should do a good job at WIU, and SIU-E is just getting started.)   If a Wash U or UW-Stevens Point beat SIU-E or Western Illinois this year, I don't think it would be a "great win."  Now, when you get up any higher than that lowest rung of "low-D1" (say, middle-of-the-pack Ohio Valley or Summit League, then yes, any D3 win becomes really impressive in my opinion.

I enjoyed watching several SLIAC games last year and I think I have a good appreciation for how the top teams stack up in the D3 world.  I don't think you should consider a good SLIAC team a big underdog when facing a team towards the bottom of a great league.
#8167
Quote from: PointSpecial on November 24, 2009, 11:28:23 PM
Hmm...  How good was Anderson?  I know their conference, the HCAC can be pretty tough (a bunch of Indiana boys, after all) but they've been down the last few years.  Looks like Anderson was selected #3 in their league this year but got more first place votes (3) than the second place team Defiance (2).  Transylvania (4 first place votes) was picked to repeat again this year.

I thought that Platteville wouldn't drop off too much this year, even though they didn't have Skemp.  I'm not going to say they've completely dropped off... but they've struggled more than I thought they would.

Anderson only beat Kalamazoo (9-16, 5-9 MIAA last year) by 2 at home.  Yesterday, Manchester (same league as Anderson) beat Kalamazoo by 35.
#8168
Quote from: fcnews on November 24, 2009, 11:19:10 PM
I don't care if the SLIAC beats a CCIW member in washers, that's a win.

Right.  But if the CCIW team is really bad at washers, and has been for a long time, then it's not a "great win."
#8169
Quote from: izzy stradlin on November 24, 2009, 11:32:58 PM
With all due respect to the above posters, I have a hard time hearing NAIA-DI programs considered to be "powers" or "strong programs."   To me, the programs mentioned are simply weak scholarship-basketball programs.  

We can keep creating divisions and subdivisions for schools to join until everyone can consider themselves a strong program by achieving a lofty ranking, but in IMO there are only strong scholarship programs (the top of the  ACC, SEC, Big Ten etc) and strong non-scholarship programs (the top of the cciw, wiac, uaa, ivy league etc).

Obviously there are differences on average in resources, total scholarship dollars, enrollment etc between NCAA D1 and other scholarship basketball, but the disparities are also there between fellow NCAA D1 schools.  

The Chicago States of the world could be considered good programs if people would just stop comparing them to the darn Big Ten or even MVC schools.....   all they need to do is group themselves in the right "scholarship" division.

I'm not following your point.  You do realize that the best NAIA I teams are generally better than the best NCAA III teams, right?  And that, just as the case with any division, there are certain NAIA programs that are traditionally strong within the NAIA world (like Concordia of California, Azusa Pacific, Georgetown of Kentucky, Mountain State, etc)...just as the UW-Stevens Point's, Hope's, Wooster's, Amherst's, Wash U's, etc are in D3.  Locally, Robert Morris has become an NAIA powerhouse, Olivet Nazarene is a terrific program overall, and St. Xavier is also strong most years.

I don't think there is a CCIW team this season as good as this year's Olivet Nazarene team.  And in terms of overall small college basketball "programs", there are probably only 3-4 CCIW programs that have been on par with ONU over the course of the last decade or so.

NAIA II has some great "programs" too, like Bethel (IN), Cornerstone, etc.
#8170
Quote from: hopefan on November 24, 2009, 10:13:58 PMOn the other hand, what a GREAT win for Webster and the SLIAC  -  Congrats to Coach Bunch and the players

I'm not sure beating Millikin can be called a great win by any D3 team, hope. 
#8171
Quote from: WUH on November 24, 2009, 10:21:41 PM
I used to work at Saint Xavier years ago.  They are perennial powers in almost every sport including basketball.  I watched them give DePaul and Loyola very close games a few years ago.  And, they have taken out a host of Division II and III schools, though I think they had a down year last year.  One of the basketball coaches told me that specifically that he viewed NAIA Division I as equivalent to NCAA Division II and cited the lack of Chicago-area and Division II schools (only Lewis and Wisconsin-Parkside) as evidence.  That was his opinion, of course, because his theory would not explain why Illinois-Springfield joined the GLVC.

I have seen McKendree (vs. Lindenwood) play this year and they look very good, though I think Washington University will take them at home where they are very strong.

Typically, good St. Xavier and Olivet Nazarene teams are on par with the top 1-2 CCIW teams.  Fellow CCAC member Robert Morris, and their steady stream of D1 major transfers, is in another class.

I also favor Wash U over McKendree.
#8172
I don't think we'll all be traveling to Decatur for the conference tournament this year.
#8173
Final from Dubuque....

Wheaton 82
Loras 60

* Ben Panner: 29 pts
* Tim McCrary: 16 pts, 6 reb, 4 assists
* Andrew Jahns: 10 pts, 7 reb, 4 assists
#8174
Final from Decatur...

Webster 46
Millikin 44

Check out this final minute of play...

01:24 Millikin GOOD! 3 PTR by Wooten, Derron Wumbb 46 - Millikin 44 (Wumbb by 2)
   ASSIST by Warren, Charles
01:18 Wumbb TIMEOUT 20sec  
01:10 Wumbb FOUL by Restoff, Scott
01:10 Wumbb TURNOVR by Restoff, Scott
00:57 Millikin TURNOVR by Wooten, Derron
00:51 Wumbb TIMEOUT 20sec  
00:46 Wumbb TURNOVR by Moore, Drew
00:34 Millikin STEAL by Ferguson, Sedric
00:28 Millikin TURNOVR by Warren, Charles
00:41 Wumbb TURNOVR by Strickland, Jerry
00:38 Millikin TIMEOUT 30sec  
00:25 Millikin MISSED JUMPER by Mitchell, Corey
   REBOUND (OFF) by Warren, Charles
00:20 Millikin MISSED JUMPER by Warren, Charles
00:20 Wumbb BLOCK by Moore, Drew
   REBOUND (DEF) by (TEAM)
00:15 Wumbb TURNOVR by Moore, Drew
00:14 Millikin STEAL by Mitchell, Corey
00:11 Millikin TIMEOUT 20sec  
00:06 Millikin MISSED JUMPER by Demby, Joscar
   REBOUND (OFF) by Mitchell, Corey
00:04 Wumbb FOUL by Restoff, Scott
00:04 Millikin MISSED FT SHOT by Mitchell, Corey
   REBOUND (OFF) by (DEADBALL)
00:04 Millikin MISSED FT SHOT by Mitchell, Corey
   REBOUND (DEF) by (TEAM)




If I'm reading that right, after Millikin cut it to 46-44 with 1:24 to play, Webster did not have a field goal or free attempt the rest of the game...Millikin was 0-3 from the field and 0-2 from the FT line...and Webster had 4 turnovers and Millikin 2.

Ugly!
#8175
Webster @ Millikin live stats...

https://www.millikin.edu/sites/athletics/mbasketball/Pages/LiveStats.aspx


Millikin was picked 6th, out of 8, in the CCIW preseason poll.  This is a game Webster can win.