Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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Pat Coleman

Oh no, I disagree. St. Thomas beating Concordia-Moorhead more or less knocks Moorhead out. (Not entirely but pretty close.) St. Thomas losing practically guarantees two MIAC Pool C teams. St. Thomas winning practically guarantees just one.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

K-Mack

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2012, 11:19:32 PM
Oh no, I disagree. St. Thomas beating Concordia-Moorhead more or less knocks Moorhead out. (Not entirely but pretty close.) St. Thomas losing practically guarantees two MIAC Pool C teams. St. Thomas winning practically guarantees just one.

Right. I was reading the phrase "Pool C teams don't want to see new players here, like Widener and St. Thomas" to only consider the St. Thomas loses scenario against Wally's current projections, which take both Bethel and C-M.

I understand what you're saying, something is going to happen either way after Saturday.
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Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 10:05:05 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 31, 2012, 09:47:23 PM
This may or may not be relevant to pool C, but I noted on the NJAC board that the Cortland @ Willy Pat game for Saturday has been canceled (and will not be re-scheduled) due to aftereffects of 'Frankenstorm'.  Any word on any other cancellations?  Any stadia that might have hosted tourney games too badly damaged to host?

It's not relevant, and I am asking around. So far three games affected but just the one cancelled. Looking at the map and where Sandy hit, really SUNY-Maritime is the one I think might have gotten it the worst, and I'd like to check in with them if possible.

While I haven't followed pool C as intensely as Wally (has anyone?), I knew the Cortland/Willy Pat game was not relevant per se (might matter for seeding, giving them one less game, but actually improves Cortland's SoS ;)), but wondered about other games that would directly matter.  You seem to be on top of the situation - good work.

BashDad

Quote from: pg04 on October 31, 2012, 10:53:21 PM
Wally, Everything you are doing here is superb. It's awesome to read as a D3 fan and I am glad someone is so dedicated to take the time to do that on these boards. I can't believe your karma isn't through the roof (not that it matters). Lots of +K from me coming!

Agreed. This is fantastic work.

K-Mack

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 01, 2012, 01:26:10 AM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 10:05:05 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 31, 2012, 09:47:23 PM
This may or may not be relevant to pool C, but I noted on the NJAC board that the Cortland @ Willy Pat game for Saturday has been canceled (and will not be re-scheduled) due to aftereffects of 'Frankenstorm'.  Any word on any other cancellations?  Any stadia that might have hosted tourney games too badly damaged to host?

It's not relevant, and I am asking around. So far three games affected but just the one cancelled. Looking at the map and where Sandy hit, really SUNY-Maritime is the one I think might have gotten it the worst, and I'd like to check in with them if possible.

While I haven't followed pool C as intensely as Wally (has anyone?), I knew the Cortland/Willy Pat game was not relevant per se (might matter for seeding, giving them one less game, but actually improves Cortland's SoS ;)), but wondered about other games that would directly matter.  You seem to be on top of the situation - good work.

I only meant it is irrelevant to Pool C since Cortland has clinched and is now a Pool A team.

Speaking of good work, I couldn't find the MIAA tiebreaker last night, and it was 2 a.m. so I couldn't call the MIAA office to clarify. Lo and behold a post of yours from 2007, located on these very boards but through Google, finally answered my question after about 15 minutes of searching.
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FCGrizzliesGrad

Just looked and D3F now has the Kean-Rowan game as cancelled.
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Pat Coleman

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 01, 2012, 08:47:18 PM
Just looked and D3F now has the Kean-Rowan game as cancelled.

That hurts. Means it came from Kean, since we use the same website platform and share schedule and results data. It's reliable then.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Mr. Ypsi

Wally, does the cancellation of Kean/Rowan affect your prediction?  (You had Rowan in as the sixth pick; was that JUST as of week 9, or were you assuming a win over Kean?)

wally_wabash

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 01, 2012, 09:31:22 PM
Wally, does the cancellation of Kean/Rowan affect your prediction?  (You had Rowan in as the sixth pick; was that JUST as of week 9, or were you assuming a win over Kean?)

No, it doesn't affect what I did this week and it won't affect Rowan too much going forward as Kean isn't likely to get ranked.  Rowan may have gotten a slight SOS boost from the game, but it's really pretty negligible. 

Where this cancellation could manifest itself is in the hypothetical...specifically that this was a game Rowan could lose which would open the door for Lycoming or SJF or maybe even Bridgewater State.  Incidentally, the Widener/FDU cancellation has opened the door for Lycoming to bypass all of this Pool C business, which introduces Widener as a serious player to Pool C. 

If Widener does lose to Del Val and does wind up in Pool C as a result, it will be interesting to see how the East lines up their teams.  Widener will have a quality win and a better regional win pct., but Rowan will have a better SOS and a better result against a common opponent (Del Val).  It's an interesting situation because I think Widener probably is probably a better Pool C candidate (quality win) but they could very well get caught behind Rowan who could take some time to get picked. 
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MonroviaCat

#279
Just killing time till Saturday at this point but here's a hypothetical:  What if St. Olaf beats Bethel and St. Thomas beats Concordia MH?  Do either of those teams (Bethel/CM) still make it?  Or does St. Olaf then jump into the picture?  Of course then there is next week when St. Olaf plays St. Thomas...if they managed to win that.....Could, potentially have St. Thomas still with Pool A but then 3-way tie for 2nd.....that could get quite muddy.....
Go Cats!

smedindy

If Widener gets booted to a "C" and St. Thomas takes care of C-M, and nothing else out of the ordinary happens (HAH!) then I think that Widener will just replace C-M in the grand scheme of things.

Of course, I'll leave the final calculations to the Nate Silver of "Pool C". I argued with him last year and he was right about CWRU.

wally_wabash

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 02, 2012, 10:15:25 AM
Just killing time till Saturday at this point but here's a hypothetical:  What if St. Olaf beats Bethel and St. Thomas beats Concordia MH?  Do either of those teams (Bethel/CM) still make it?  Or does St. Olaf then jump into the picture?  Of course then there is next week when St. Olaf plays St. Thomas...if they managed to win that.....Could, potentially have St. Thomas still with Pool A but then 3-way tie for 2nd.....that could get quite muddy.....

Man, this is messy.  It all depends on if St. Olaf gets ranked by beating Bethel.  If they do, then Moorhead gets a RRO win and then I have no idea how you properly order Bethel/Moorhead/St. Olaf.  My guess is that you'd still have the order Bethel-Moorhead-St. Olaf using common opponent results (namely the Augsburg results), but then what happens to Concordia-Moorhead changes completely if St. Olaf does get ranked. 

Without St. Olaf being ranked, I think Concordia-Moorhead probably gets knocked just out of Pool C.  I think they'd probably fall behind 2-loss PLU in the West and I'd have a hard time seeing a third 2-loss team from one region being selected.  If the Oles do get ranked, Concordia-Moorhead stays ahead of PLU and will be fighting it out with 1-loss teams without quality wins for that last golden ticket.   

Now if St. Olaf managed to beat both Bethel and St. Thomas and got to 8-2 that way, I think the Oles jump to the top of the West board.  That's two strong wins against RROs and it's happening in the last 25% of the season which can also be taken into consideration. 

Lots of interesting possibilities in the MIAC right now. 
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wally_wabash

What's really fun is that in a little over 24 hours, everything we've talked about in here since Wednesday afternoon gets scratched and we start all over again.   :)
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desertcat1

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2012, 02:54:18 PM
What's really fun is that in a little over 24 hours, everything we've talked about in here since Wednesday afternoon gets scratched and we start all over again.   :)

nice job wally keep it up  8-)
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MonroviaCat

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2012, 02:54:18 PM
What's really fun is that in a little over 24 hours, everything we've talked about in here since Wednesday afternoon gets scratched and we start all over again.   :)
Yup--and then the next week, it happens again and you have to work even quicker because they announce the actual brackets and you can't really post possible selections after the real thing is out :)
Go Cats!