MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

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Titan Q

#52635
I am surprised Benedictine is ahead of NCC at this point. https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/mens-third-regional-ranking

As I see it, the teams have to be lined up regionally in the right order so that the region's Pool C candidates hit the board in the right order -- and so the region maximizes its Pool C chances.  I would think every RAC and the national committee would want this.  It's how the process is meant to play out.  What you don't want to happen is a team hitting the board during Pool C and blocking teams behind them - either blocking entirely, or for several rounds - with better resumes.

That is what would happen currently if Benedictine and North Central were Pool C teams.  For context, see my 20 round Pool C projection here - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1979937#msg1979937.

Resumes:
* Benedictine: .800/.506/3-0
* North Central: .840/.538/2-2

North Central has the better resume here.  There is a significant amount of separation in NCC's combination of WP and SOS.  While RRO clearly favors BU (3-0 is better than 2-2), it is not enough of a difference to trump the WP/SOS advantage. 

Demonstrated more objectively, Matt Snyder creates an RPI from the combination of WP and SOS -- NCC's is .614 and BU's is .580.  That is a huge difference.  While the RPI isn't a real thing in the process, this is simply a way to understand the difference in NCC and BU's WP/SOS combination. https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

Most importantly, going back to the real test of how these teams fair in the Pool C process (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1979937#msg1979937)...

* NCC's resume fits in at about spot #6, ahead of where I have LeTourneau.
* BU's resume fits in at about spot #13, ahead of where I have UW-Oshkosh.

BU would sit on the board several rounds longer than NCC would.  I don't think there is any real question about that.

I get the importance of the head-to-head result (BU over NCC) as long as the numbers are almost a tie.  But after two recent BU losses, the numbers are no longer a tie.  NCC's resume is better, and NCC should be ranked ahead of Benedictine.

Greek Tragedy

I agree with this. I hear all too often that excuse, "Yeah, but we beat you." How long can a team use that against another team when all the other criteria are favored towards the team that is 0-1 H2H? It's ONE of the criteria, not #1, #2, #3 etc, if I'm correct.
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lmitzel

Quote from: Titan Q on February 26, 2020, 07:10:10 AM
I am surprised Benedictine is ahead of NCC at this point. https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/mens-third-regional-ranking

As I see it, the teams have to be lined up regionally in the right order so that the region's Pool C candidates hit the board in the right order -- and so the region maximizes its Pool C chances.  I would think every RAC and the national committee would want this.  It's how the process is meant to play out.  What you don't want to happen is a team hitting the board during Pool C and blocking teams behind them - either blocking entirely, or for several rounds - with better resumes.

That is what would happen currently if Benedictine and North Central were Pool C teams.  For context, see my 20 round Pool C projection here - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1979937#msg1979937.

Resumes:
* Benedictine: .800/.506/3-0
* North Central: .840/.538/2-2

North Central has the better resume here.  There is a significant amount of separation in NCC's combination of WP and SOS.  While RRO clearly favors BU (3-0 is better than 2-2), it is not enough of a difference to trump the WP/SOS advantage. 

Demonstrated more objectively, Matt Snyder creates an RPI from the combination of WP and SOS -- NCC's is .614 and BU's is .580.  That is a huge difference.  While the RPI isn't a real thing in the process, this is simply a way to understand the difference in NCC and BU's WP/SOS combination. https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

Most importantly, going back to the real test of how these teams fair in the Pool C process (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1979937#msg1979937)...

* NCC's resume fits in at about spot #6, ahead of where I have LeTourneau.
* BU's resume fits in at about spot #13, ahead of where I have UW-Oshkosh.

BU would sit on the board several rounds longer than NCC would.  I don't think there is any real question about that.

I get the importance of the head-to-head result (BU over NCC) as long as the numbers are almost a tie.  But after two recent BU losses, the numbers are no longer a tie.  NCC's resume is better, and NCC should be ranked ahead of Benedictine.

I'm hoping NCC gets the AQ and ultimately none of this matters, but I'd have to think their respective conference tournaments would add more evidence that NCC should be ahead. BenU has, at most, two more games that I'm assuming won't do a ton for their SOS. NCC, meanwhile, will get a little bit of a bump in SOS and has at least one more vRRO game.

Say NCC makes the title game and loses to Augie, as a hypothetical, while the Eagles fall in their title game. You're then looking at .815/.540+/3-2 (unless Augie's 2-0 week somehow bumps them up into the Central for the final set, at which point change that number to 5-3). Who can, in good conscience, rank a .778/.510ish maybe/3-0 ahead of that solely based on head to head? If the Central RAC/national committee can... let's just say I'll have questions.
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Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

1) I do believe BenU and NCC have close enough resumes to use the head-to-head as a tiebreaker.  NCC does have a better resume (and I think Elmhurst does, too), but they're not so much better as to ignore the head to head.  We've seen elsewhere that the committee is looking at roughly a 4-game winning percentage difference before they go there.  The SOS difference is probably not significant enough, either.  You can certainly make a case for NCC (and Elmhurst) over BenU, but it's not a faultless case and the committee seems to be prioritizing different things this season.

2) We also have to remember, the committee cannot make a distinction about "which team is better;" that's essentially bringing in subjective criteria.  They can only rank which resume is better.  That's a very real distinction.
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GoPerry

Quote from: Titan Q on February 26, 2020, 07:10:10 AM
I am surprised Benedictine is ahead of NCC at this point. https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/mens-third-regional-ranking

As I see it, the teams have to be lined up regionally in the right order so that the region's Pool C candidates hit the board in the right order -- and so the region maximizes its Pool C chances.  I would think every RAC and the national committee would want this.  It's how the process is meant to play out.  What you don't want to happen is a team hitting the board during Pool C and blocking teams behind them - either blocking entirely, or for several rounds - with better resumes.


That's an interesting comment Bob.  It begs the question of how common it is for the national committee to overrule the RAC and adjust their rankings.  And will the regional chair/national member, Mike Schauer for the Central this year, proactively bring up a tough situation to the national committee once the RRs get to them on Sunday to affirm or possibly adjust?  I would hope so since both NCC's Todd Raridon and BU's Keith Bunkenburg are members of the Central RAC meaning fewer unattached voices are weighing in on NCC vs BU ranking on the regional level. 

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: GoPerry on February 26, 2020, 08:47:19 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 26, 2020, 07:10:10 AM
I am surprised Benedictine is ahead of NCC at this point. https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/mens-third-regional-ranking

As I see it, the teams have to be lined up regionally in the right order so that the region's Pool C candidates hit the board in the right order -- and so the region maximizes its Pool C chances.  I would think every RAC and the national committee would want this.  It's how the process is meant to play out.  What you don't want to happen is a team hitting the board during Pool C and blocking teams behind them - either blocking entirely, or for several rounds - with better resumes.


That's an interesting comment Bob.  It begs the question of how common it is for the national committee to overrule the RAC and adjust their rankings.  And will the regional chair/national member, Mike Schauer for the Central this year, proactively bring up a tough situation to the national committee once the RRs get to them on Sunday to affirm or possibly adjust?  I would hope so since both NCC's Todd Raridon and BU's Keith Bunkenburg are members of the Central RAC meaning fewer unattached voices are weighing in on NCC vs BU ranking on the regional level.

The only way this will actually be a problem, though, is if BenU loses in the conference tournament.
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Titan Q

#52641
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 26, 2020, 08:09:20 AM
I agree with this. I hear all too often that excuse, "Yeah, but we beat you." How long can a team use that against another team when all the other criteria are favored towards the team that is 0-1 H2H? It's ONE of the criteria, not #1, #2, #3 etc, if I'm correct.
The best example I can remember is way back in like 2009, IWU was 3-0 vs Wheaton...but Wheaton ended up regionally ranked higher because they had the better overall resume.  Their WP was something like .730 and IWU was like .692 - something like that.  It was the right decision by the RAC, because Wheaton had the best Pool C resume.  Wheaton got in, IWU did not.  Had they reversed the order, neither would have gotten in.

It seems to me that NCC should be ahead of BU right now for the reasons I outlined above.  I feel like that one criterion (head-to-head) is being weighted too heavily.

Greek Tragedy

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 26, 2020, 08:49:30 AM
Quote from: GoPerry on February 26, 2020, 08:47:19 AM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 26, 2020, 07:10:10 AM
I am surprised Benedictine is ahead of NCC at this point. https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/mens-third-regional-ranking

As I see it, the teams have to be lined up regionally in the right order so that the region's Pool C candidates hit the board in the right order -- and so the region maximizes its Pool C chances.  I would think every RAC and the national committee would want this.  It's how the process is meant to play out.  What you don't want to happen is a team hitting the board during Pool C and blocking teams behind them - either blocking entirely, or for several rounds - with better resumes.


That's an interesting comment Bob.  It begs the question of how common it is for the national committee to overrule the RAC and adjust their rankings.  And will the regional chair/national member, Mike Schauer for the Central this year, proactively bring up a tough situation to the national committee once the RRs get to them on Sunday to affirm or possibly adjust?  I would hope so since both NCC's Todd Raridon and BU's Keith Bunkenburg are members of the Central RAC meaning fewer unattached voices are weighing in on NCC vs BU ranking on the regional level.

The only way this will actually be a problem, though, is if BenU loses in the conference tournament.

Which is very possible. They split with MSOE and WLC during the season. And BU isn't playing lights out lately.
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Titan Q

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 26, 2020, 09:09:44 AM
Which is very possible. They split with MSOE and WLC during the season. And BU isn't playing lights out lately.

Having watched a lot of BU's last 2 games, I am thinking they are heading for Pool C. 

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Viking Mike

I have to agree with Bob Q on this.  Been watching div 3 basketball for 30+ yrs and have come away with some feel for how teams are selected for the NCAA tourney.  Ben U is a quality team but their head to head should ONLY come into play if their resume is somewhat similar to North Central's.

NC clearly has the better overall resume.  Ranking Ben U at #3 hurts NC, Elmhurst, and every other team below them from getting to the table.  It's like a blockade that will have detrimental effects for everyone below them.  I personally hope Ben U wins their tournament but if they don't, the RAC and NCAA will have some answering to do to many here in the Central Region.

Ben U has been struggling as of late, with 2 losses in their last 4, yet no fall in rankings b/c of this "November game that supposedly as important as the games at then end of the season"  Once could argue the the RAC/NCAA is weighing this game significantly more than all others. 

It just doesn't look right.  Hopefully, Elmhurst, Oshkosh, and Lacrosse won't suffer because of it!

79jaybird

Solid win for Elmhurst last night.   Hoping last night's win punches their ticket to the big dance, but know anything/everything could (and does) happen over the years.   

Elmhurst is going to need Lavon to be a force Saturday.  Their last trip to N-Ville was a No show from a Jays standpoint.  Things could unravel quickly if the Jays aren't ready to play at the tip off.
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Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


I just don't think you can say "NCC clearly has a better resume than Benedictine" right now.  NCC is one game better in winning percentage, .03 in SOS.  Both of those go in NCC's favor, for sure.  Benedictine is 3-0 against regionally ranked competition, NCC is 2-2, with those two wins both being over Elmhurst; those wins compare similarly to BenU's wins over LeTourneau and SNC.  The difference there being the win over NCC.  So if you give head to head and vRRO to Benedictine, you have to move to the secondary criteria, where BenU's nonconference SOS is pretty spectacular, compared to NCC's sub .500 number.

To me it's a very even resume at the moment, given the criteria - and head to head results have always held strong weight with the committee.

I agree, if NCC wins the CCIW tourney and BenU loses in theirs, they have to switch places.  Right now, though, and if both win out, you can argue BenU stay ahead... clearly the committee thinks so.

I think we'd all pick NCC to win in a rematch, but that doesn't factor in.  NCC has to take care of business and hope BenU loses.  All of this may be moot, though - the only way it changes much of anything is if they need another host for geography.
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Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 26, 2020, 10:00:32 AM

I think we'd all pick NCC to win in a rematch, but that doesn't factor in.  NCC has to take care of business and hope BenU loses.  All of this may be moot, though - the only way it changes much of anything is if they need another host for geography.

Agreed. Both Benedictine (due to quality wins) and NCC (due to W/L and SOS) should both be firmly in unless there is crazy chaos in the upcoming week and weekend. 

I don't see a ton of Pool C's being "stolen" this year because there are a lot of two-bid leagues that both are LOCKS, so presume one of those two locks win their conference tournament.  For instance, it will be hard for a bid stealer in the CENT to knock off Hopkins AND Swat back to back.

And then there are just a handful (AMC/SUNYAC/GNAC/SKY/MACF/SAA/MWC/NACC/MIAA), 9 by my quick count, that are one bid type leagues. I guess you can throw the LL and the CAC in there too with Hobart and York both being on the bubble. At most maybe 2-3 of those teams get upset on their home floor?

The team that should be concerned with being blocked in the Central should be Augustana by La Crosse.  La Crosse beat Augustana at home right after Christmas, but has zero regionally-ranked wins on their resume from yesterday's most recent rankings (Augsburg lost last night so do not see them getting back into the West RR's). If La Crosse loses to Oshkosh Thursday, they end 21-6 (.778), .540-ish SOS, and 0-5 R v RRO's.  It also doesn't help their NCSOS according to Snyder's page is 0.464 if their resume ends up being compared to one or two other teams in a different region.

GoPerry

Elmhurst 71 Wheaton 58

The Thunder got off to a slow start, falling behind early and never led the entire game.  Rhode and Dotlich combined for only 12 pts but the rest of the BlueJays played well all around.  Jay Militello, Lavon Thomas, and Dominic Gencoc significantly contributed.  Adom and Cruickshank played well but didn't get much offensive support from Spencer, Alioth and Anthony who were a pretty ugly combined 2-25 from the field.

Congratulations to lone senior Anajuwon Spencer for completing 4 yrs of terrific contribution to Wheaton basketball.  Wishing him well for future endeavors.