Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2013, 10:39:56 PM
Time to start a new thread (and pull the Pool C talk off the Pool B board.)
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2013, 08:18:46 AM
A few early observations:
1) this is a rarity anyway, but there will likely be no Pool B teams that spill into Pool C as realistic playoff candidates. The last Pool C in is likely to have one or two losses as it is, and the "fourth" team in B is almost guaranteed to have two losses. The only way this gets funky is if Wesley's odd schedule bites them and somehow they are docked for the low number of D3 games.
2) with that out of the way: the east has already beaten itself up so much that I can't see hardly anyone getting to Pool C with just one loss (short of SJF or Hobart getting upset / if Salisbury beats SJF this week, they go into the E8 driver's seat and SJF becomes out first logical Pool C candidate from the East).
3) the MIAC has a mess on its hands. Several games played to sort this out yet but it's very plausible that their runner up will have two losses. A conference that usually produces a Pool C team that acquits itself well.
4) the CCIW and OAC look like good bets to produce a one loss runner up; each conference has three very good teams and no one that looks REALLY threatening to beat any of the top three, thus I expect each will produce a one loss runner up that will be a strong candidate. This is also likely with the two power teams in the NCAC (since Witt's loss to Butler doesn't count, although we have previously noted that it must be somehow considered that Witt was demolished and Franklin nearly best Butler the next week).
5) the NWC had a number of key games coming up, but Pacific, Willamette, and (most likely) Pacific Lutheran all stand a chance of coming to the table with one loss
6) the MWC could produce an interesting problem as a fairly weak conference with two teams undefeated in conference play that don't play one another. We are currently assuming that Illinois College will likely get the Pool A if they don't stumble, so St. Norbert is on the bubble (but given their lopsided loss to John Carroll, I expect they would be placed behind other quality 1-loss Pool C teams).
7) the WIAC has three highly-ranked teams that have to start playing one another so we can figure out who is best and if anyone's getting through with 1 loss into Pool C.
8) I made a prediction that at least one Pool C team will have two losses, even with the low number of slots available. I stand by that - so many games to be played yet, I don't think that we'll have more than a couple of highly-ranked runners-up with only one loss.
Sorry I went back and forth between east, west, north regions there. But this could start some conversation :)
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 19, 2013, 10:01:38 PM
Scratch Huntingdon. The at-large game is cruel.
Quote from: D3MAFAN on October 19, 2013, 10:32:38 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on October 19, 2013, 10:01:38 PM
Scratch Huntingdon. The at-large game is cruel.
Very Cruel!
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 20, 2013, 07:41:54 AMQuote from: D3MAFAN on October 19, 2013, 10:32:38 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on October 19, 2013, 10:01:38 PM
Scratch Huntingdon. The at-large game is cruel.
Very Cruel!
Maryville's win over Christopher Newport basically rules out a Pool C from the USA South. Huntingdon could still win their way in as a Pool A with a win over now-leader Maryville in the finale, but I think we can rule out a 2-loss USAC team, even CNU with a quality OOC win, as a Pool C.
Quote from: smedindy on October 20, 2013, 01:48:38 PM
Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 20, 2013, 02:47:10 PMQuote from: smedindy on October 20, 2013, 01:48:38 PM
Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.
They are all "regional" games this year. All D3 games get counted in the SOS math so long as you play a certain percentage of your games in region (I think it's 75%).
Either way, the winner of JCU/HBerg is about as close to lock status as anybody will get in this year's pool C. As long as the don't lose again to a not-UMU team.
Quote from: jknezek on October 20, 2013, 03:21:42 PMGround Hog Day in October?
Pat said that was the math breakdown, but last I heard the book wasn't out, so it wasn't completely a given.
Quote from: HScoach on October 20, 2013, 04:39:42 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on October 20, 2013, 02:47:10 PMQuote from: smedindy on October 20, 2013, 01:48:38 PM
Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.
They are all "regional" games this year. All D3 games get counted in the SOS math so long as you play a certain percentage of your games in region (I think it's 75%).
Either way, the winner of JCU/HBerg is about as close to lock status as anybody will get in this year's pool C. As long as the don't lose again to a not-UMU team.
The OAC isn't the lock that it's been for the last 20 years. Any of the 3 could win it. And all 3 finishing 9-1 is a distinct possibility. H'Berg might have the toughest route to 10-0 as they play at JCU the week after hosting Mount. Going to tough for Berg to rise again the next week. Especially if they beat Mount.
League | Team |
ASC | UMHB |
CC | Johns Hopkins |
CCIW | North Central |
ECFC | Gallaudet |
E8 | Salisbury |
HCAC | Franklin |
IIAC | Wartburg |
LL | Hobart |
MAC | Lebanon Valley |
MIAC | Bethel |
MWC | Illinois College |
MIAA | Adrian |
NACC | Concordia (Wis.) |
NCAC | Wabash |
NEFC | Salve Regina |
NJAC | TCNJ |
NWC | Linfield |
OAC | Mount Union |
ODAC | Hampden-Sydney |
PAC | Washington & Jefferson |
SCIAC | Redlands |
UMAC | Greenville |
USAC | Maryville |
WIAC | UW-Whitewater |
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 01:16:24 PM(https://www.d3boards.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.pandawhale.com%2F28228-Thats-Unpossible-Ralph-wiggum-PcuI.jpeg&hash=4c5002545c1da9a5e103f55f8b25b771475acccc)
Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 01:16:24 PMOkay, I have behaved myself since I got off frequent postings on the politics message board back in 2009, but this comment is just too ripe to pass over.
Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong. I'll explain on the front page.
Quote from: AO on October 21, 2013, 01:27:00 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 01:16:24 PM(https://www.d3boards.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.pandawhale.com%2F28228-Thats-Unpossible-Ralph-wiggum-PcuI.jpeg&hash=4c5002545c1da9a5e103f55f8b25b771475acccc)
Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong.
Quote from: HScoach on October 21, 2013, 12:33:24 PM
The ever-shrinking size of Pool C makes for an interesting problem come Selection Sunday. A 9-1 OAC runner-up has always been a sure-fire lock to make the field, but that might not be the case with only 5 spots open. With 9 in-conference games each year, the OAC has little chance to make their SoS diverge from 500 point that conferences like the CCIW and E-8 have. And if H'Berg is the runner-up, they really screwed themselves by playing Alma. Whereas Mount beat Franklin who should be regionally ranked and win the HCAC and John Carrol beat St Norbert who could finish 9-1 themselves.
Though I don't want to be in this position, the surest Pool C qualifier from the OAC would be Mount Union. Would be awfully hard to keep the defending and 11-time National Champion out of the field simply because their SoS number isn't much above 500. In my mind John Carroll has a good chance to make it at 9-1 if they get there based on a quality opener and they would have beaten either H'Berg or Mount to end the year. H'Berg is the most sketchy due to the Alma opener. What becomes really messy is if all 3 finish 9-1. I have no idea what the OAC's tie breaker is, but knowing the geniuses in the league office it's probably something like the old Big Ten Rose Bowl rule.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 02:22:36 PMThanks. When I went to the front page earlier, I missed the link.
Paging Ralph Turner. Ralph Turner, please pick up the courtesy phone:
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2013/10/playoff-adjustment
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PMI hope they take one someday!
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 21, 2013, 01:49:44 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 01:16:24 PMOkay, I have behaved myself since I got off frequent postings on the politics message board back in 2009, but this comment is just too ripe to pass over.
Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong. I'll explain on the front page.
Which will be corrected first?
The Obamacare website?
Or the NCAA Division-III Championship Handbooks?
Quote from: D3MAFAN on October 21, 2013, 04:18:28 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.
Quote from: ADL70 on October 21, 2013, 05:08:51 PMQuote from: D3MAFAN on October 21, 2013, 04:18:28 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.
Check the front page. Pat confirmed with the conference office that they aren't participating.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 22, 2013, 10:53:46 AM
As far as I know, that nine-game thing is a myth. It may have been true at one point but I have never seen it codified in black and white.
What would "legally" keep Trinity (or Wesleyan) from declaring eligible for the playoffs? I would think it likely they would get kicked out of the NESCAC if they did so.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 22, 2013, 10:53:46 AM
As far as I know, that nine-game thing is a myth. It may have been true at one point but I have never seen it codified in black and white.
What would "legally" keep Trinity (or Wesleyan) from declaring eligible for the playoffs? I would think it likely they would get kicked out of the NESCAC if they did so.
Quote from: D3MAFAN on October 21, 2013, 04:18:28 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 21, 2013, 03:30:01 PMThat would be too funny! Maybe the new asst in the AD office would take the call/message & inform the team/coach of their 1st ever playoff birth.Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2013, 03:27:33 PM
Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.
Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?
I know this is probably not how it works, but I'm laughing at the image of some NCAA rep calling either the NESCAC office or the NESCAC champion's AD to congratulate them on their playoff invitation and make arrangements for the first-round game, only to be told "Uh, we don't play in the playoffs."
League | Team |
ASC | UMHB |
CC | Johns Hopkins |
CCIW | North Central |
ECFC | Gallaudet |
E8 | Salisbury |
HCAC | Franklin |
IIAC | Wartburg |
LL | Hobart |
MAC | Lebanon Valley |
MIAC | Bethel |
MWC | Illinois College |
MIAA | Albion |
NACC | Concordia (Wis.) |
NCAC | Wabash |
NEFC | Salve Regina |
NJAC | Rowan |
NWC | Linfield |
OAC | Mount Union |
ODAC | Guilford |
PAC | Washington & Jefferson |
SCIAC | Redlands |
UMAC | Greenville |
USAC | Maryville |
WIAC | UW-Whitewater |
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2013, 11:41:44 AM
To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 28, 2013, 12:27:14 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2013, 11:41:44 AM
To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead
Interesting stuff. I would think Concordia-Moorhead would still be considered for a Pool C if they were to get that dreaded second season loss (against UST). Looking around the country, I don't see any potential one-loss (Non Pool A) teams that stand out to me for a strong consideration for a Pool C. Wabash maybe (if Wittenberg can beat them)? Many potential one-loss teams, who would finish runners up in their conference, have sub par SOS. With that being said, I would think the committee would have to consider a two-loss team with a strong SOS in a strong conference instead.
Since I think it's highly doubtful three teams would get in from the same conference....that leaves Concordia-Moorhead from the MIAC looking good (even if they were to lose to UST).
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2013, 12:44:52 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on October 28, 2013, 12:27:14 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2013, 11:41:44 AM
To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead
Interesting stuff. I would think Concordia-Moorhead would still be considered for a Pool C if they were to get that dreaded second season loss (against UST). Looking around the country, I don't see any potential one-loss (Non Pool A) teams that stand out to me for a strong consideration for a Pool C. Wabash maybe (if Wittenberg can beat them)? Many potential one-loss teams, who would finish runners up in their conference, have sub par SOS. With that being said, I would think the committee would have to consider a two-loss team with a strong SOS in a strong conference instead.
Since I think it's highly doubtful three teams would get in from the same conference....that leaves Concordia-Moorhead from the MIAC looking good (even if they were to lose to UST).
I wouldn't want to lose and pick up a second loss in week 10. Especially to a team that would also have just two losses. Checking common opponents...C-M would have beaten St. Johns who beat St. Thomas. But St. Thomas has a h2h win and played a better game with regionally ranked Bethel. Then if you want to factor in performance over the last 3-4 games leading into Selection Sunday, I really start to lean against the Cobbers. St. Thomas might be ranked ahead of C-M if that's how all of this plays out.
The West is a tough, tough place to start stacking up 2-loss teams. You have to also consider PLU as a one loss team, Oskhosh or Platteville as a one loss team, St. Johns could be a one loss team (which would gak up the order of things in the MIAC, possibly knocking Bethel into Pool C which crushes both St. Thomas and C-M)...and you also have to consider St. Norbert if they run the table and have only a loss to John Carroll on their sheet. Or Lake Forest as a one loss team. Lots of interesting possibilities remain in the west. But the moral of the story is that I don't think C-M looks good at all if they lose to St. Thomas. It's bad timing as much as anything else.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 28, 2013, 12:51:54 PMIf Concordia beats St. Thomas and St. John's beats Bethel by less than 17 points, the 3 way tie-breaker would go to Bethel. At that point I'd think it's all about whose opponents are regionally ranked.
If St. John's somehow knocks off Bethel, wouldn't SJU get the pool A? Then most likely Bethel would be a pool C. Like you said, that would crush St. Thomas and C-M.
I thought about St. Norberts, but their conference and SOS will hurt their chances. I remember a one-oss St. Norberts team in 2009 getting left out. So, I would a two-loss St. N team would be left out as well.
Good point about St. Thomas though. If they do beat C-M, then St. Thomas makes their way back into the discussion for pool C (only if Bethel beats St. John's).
Quote from: smedindy on October 28, 2013, 01:13:44 PMI'd be even more thankful if I was in a weaker conference with an A.
If you're a "C" you should just be thankful you have playoff consideration anyway.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 28, 2013, 12:27:14 PM
Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 29, 2013, 10:40:32 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on October 28, 2013, 12:27:14 PM
Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.
I agree, but WashU is a possible Pool B team; if they don't get in that route, they won't get in as a Pool C, IMO.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 28, 2013, 07:26:44 PM
Unless something semi-miraculous happens, maybe never. Don't see where they find three more FB schools unless HSU decides they want to be the next TLU and they have said numerous times they are happy in the ASC. Even then you would need to have something like Colorado College reinstate FB (incredibly unlikely) AND have Schreiner or Centenary or UDallas also decide to add it. UD tried a few years back and failed pretty miserably if memory serves.
Like I said, semi-miraculous. Maybe even fully.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2013, 11:15:07 AMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 29, 2013, 10:40:32 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on October 28, 2013, 12:27:14 PM
Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.
I agree, but WashU is a possible Pool B team; if they don't get in that route, they won't get in as a Pool C, IMO.
At the moment, I have WashU at the top of my South region C board. C-M's SOS is strong enough that I couldn't quite place the Bears with their extra loss in over the Cobbers. But as discussed, if the Cobbers lose again, they're going to be looking up not just at WashU, but probably St. Thomas as well and they'll be out of the conversation.
I think as long WashU keeps winning, they'll have a shot at the end of Pool C, if they miss out on Pool B. They could be aided greatly in week 11 by Rhodes defeating Millsaps...which would give the Bears a common opponent advantage over Millsaps to go along with a huge SOS advantage...might just be enough to put WashU at the top of the Pool B pecking order. Or at least ahead of Millsaps and Rhodes.
Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 11:15:56 AM
The ASC will be down to six soon, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps for football playoffs only, you all become some amalgamation. Then add Wesley as a satellite member, and a Frankenfootballconference is born!
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 29, 2013, 12:04:23 PMQuote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 11:15:56 AM
The ASC will be down to six soon, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps for football playoffs only, you all become some amalgamation. Then add Wesley as a satellite member, and a Frankenfootballconference is born!
Speculation is that UT-Tyler (or, less likely, UT-Dallas) will add FB, which would take care of the ASC's # issue.
I've said this on the ASC board and been chastised for it, but I don't see the SCAC re-aligning with a conference than many of them chose to break away from once already just for access to a Pool A bid they can basically never win as long as you have the monster that is UMHB. Yes, it would make football scheduling easier and a better draw for the student-athletes, but I don't know if the SCAC decision makers have that as their primary concern.
Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 06:06:27 PM
So, what is the MWC tie-breaker since both Illinois College and St. Norbert can finish undefeated? While with a very crowded field I can see a 1-loss St. Norbert's team excluded (but would that be fair to SNC since their league goes to 11 now that Cornell joined) but if the tiebreakers work against IC then we have a 10-0 team in the "C" mix.
Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 06:06:27 PM
So, what is the MWC tie-breaker since both Illinois College and St. Norbert can finish undefeated? While with a very crowded field I can see a 1-loss St. Norbert's team excluded (but would that be fair to SNC since their league goes to 11 now that Cornell joined) but if the tiebreakers work against IC then we have a 10-0 team in the "C" mix.
Quote from: d-train on October 29, 2013, 07:27:43 PM
If it takes that long just to explain how it's possible, I'm thinking 10-15% probably overstates the odds.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2013, 12:52:50 PMWhile McMurry was in the ASC, I saw too many double- and triple-monkey stomps. What good does it do a team that realistically has no chance of beating UMHB? UMHB captures so many players that would start at other programs, that a 100-player limit might disperse a few. The rest of the players want to be with a winner. "Winning cures cancer!"Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 29, 2013, 12:04:23 PMQuote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 11:15:56 AM
The ASC will be down to six soon, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps for football playoffs only, you all become some amalgamation. Then add Wesley as a satellite member, and a Frankenfootballconference is born!
Speculation is that UT-Tyler (or, less likely, UT-Dallas) will add FB, which would take care of the ASC's # issue.
I've said this on the ASC board and been chastised for it, but I don't see the SCAC re-aligning with a conference than many of them chose to break away from once already just for access to a Pool A bid they can basically never win as long as you have the monster that is UMHB. Yes, it would make football scheduling easier and a better draw for the student-athletes, but I don't know if the SCAC decision makers have that as their primary concern.
So it's better to play games with SWAG and play some teams twice than to have a consistent schedule that happens to include UMHB? I don't know how that is better for the student-athletes. And if the student-athletes aren't the primary concern for these administrators, then they're largely in the wrong line of work.
I know there's more to it than that....lots of sports other than football to be concerned with there. Seems to me that the practicality of the SCAC sponsoring a football championship has outlived its usefulness.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 29, 2013, 06:22:24 PMQuote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 06:06:27 PM
So, what is the MWC tie-breaker since both Illinois College and St. Norbert can finish undefeated? While with a very crowded field I can see a 1-loss St. Norbert's team excluded (but would that be fair to SNC since their league goes to 11 now that Cornell joined) but if the tiebreakers work against IC then we have a 10-0 team in the "C" mix.
Discussed this a week or two back. MWC board suggests that it is "quarters led" which is likely to favor IC since they've been killing everybody while St. Norbert has pulled out a few squeakers. I am of the mind that 10-0 IC should get in whether they get the Pool A bid or not, while 9-1 St. Norbert is on shaky ground for a Pool C because of the blowout loss to John Carroll. I'm well aware that IC may have lost just as badly to John Carroll, but we don't "know" that yet. Cleanest scenario is for 10-0 Illinois College to win the league, eliminating the debate about an undefeated team in Pool C, and then see how 9-1 SNC stacks up. Or, better yet, for Lake Forest to beat SNC in the finale and eliminate the debate altogether.
Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 09:03:25 PMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 29, 2013, 06:22:24 PMQuote from: smedindy on October 29, 2013, 06:06:27 PM
So, what is the MWC tie-breaker since both Illinois College and St. Norbert can finish undefeated? While with a very crowded field I can see a 1-loss St. Norbert's team excluded (but would that be fair to SNC since their league goes to 11 now that Cornell joined) but if the tiebreakers work against IC then we have a 10-0 team in the "C" mix.
Discussed this a week or two back. MWC board suggests that it is "quarters led" which is likely to favor IC since they've been killing everybody while St. Norbert has pulled out a few squeakers. I am of the mind that 10-0 IC should get in whether they get the Pool A bid or not, while 9-1 St. Norbert is on shaky ground for a Pool C because of the blowout loss to John Carroll. I'm well aware that IC may have lost just as badly to John Carroll, but we don't "know" that yet. Cleanest scenario is for 10-0 Illinois College to win the league, eliminating the debate about an undefeated team in Pool C, and then see how 9-1 SNC stacks up. Or, better yet, for Lake Forest to beat SNC in the finale and eliminate the debate altogether.
Ah, quarters led. It almost makes sense!
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2013, 12:34:27 PMThanks Pat!
No, next Wednesday.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 30, 2013, 12:59:46 PM
You got it in one, Ex. HSU was never provided the opportunity to kick the PAT (because why would you after winning the game in OT with the TD). UMHB was rooked out of a Pool C bid that year despite going 9-1 and that was the last time they didn't make the playoffs. They were pretty new to football and would not win their first playoff game until the following year - and haven't looked back since.
That was also the flash in the pan year for East Texas Baptist, which has but a single season over .500 since (6-4, 2005). So maybe it's a good thing the tie breaker turned out the way it did, and ETBU even got a playoff win out of it (against Trinity, sigh) before narrowly dropping a second-round contest at Lycoming.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 30, 2013, 02:37:35 PMThat SNAFU caused a change in the tie breaker for the ASC. The rule for football now is:Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 30, 2013, 12:59:46 PM
You got it in one, Ex. HSU was never provided the opportunity to kick the PAT (because why would you after winning the game in OT with the TD). UMHB was rooked out of a Pool C bid that year despite going 9-1 and that was the last time they didn't make the playoffs. They were pretty new to football and would not win their first playoff game until the following year - and haven't looked back since.
That was also the flash in the pan year for East Texas Baptist, which has but a single season over .500 since (6-4, 2005). So maybe it's a good thing the tie breaker turned out the way it did, and ETBU even got a playoff win out of it (against Trinity, sigh) before narrowly dropping a second-round contest at Lycoming.
Thanks for confirming, Ron. I'm sure we've had this exact conversation once before, but this is honestly still one of my favorite miniscule pieces of football trivia, and my go-to example for a) why PAT's should always be kicked even on game-ending plays as long as MOV/points-scored tiebreakers are in place and b) why margin of victory or points scored really should never be used in any tie-breakers.
QuoteIn the event of a three-way or more tie that cannot be broken by the record against
the tied teams followed by record against other conference opponents in descending order, the Commissioner
shall conduct a draw with the tied teams to determine the conference's automatic qualifier to the NCAA
Division III Football Championship
Quote from: AUPepBand on October 22, 2013, 11:03:45 AMQuote from: Pat Coleman on October 22, 2013, 10:53:46 AM
As far as I know, that nine-game thing is a myth. It may have been true at one point but I have never seen it codified in black and white.
What would "legally" keep Trinity (or Wesleyan) from declaring eligible for the playoffs? I would think it likely they would get kicked out of the NESCAC if they did so.
Heck, that (champ declaring eligible for NCAA playoffs and then being kicked out of NESCAC) would solve the NESCAC's scheduling dilemma as it would reduce the NESCAC number to nine and facilitate genuine round-robin scheduling in the NESCAC's "old school" eight-game schedule. Are there any revolutionists in New England (at Trinity or Wesleyan)? ;D
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2013, 05:24:31 PM
Well it was fun to what-if the Merchant Marine thing for a couple of days anyway.
The Gusties just did everybody a huge favor by knocking off St. John's.
TLU is going to beat LC.
Rhodes loses to Birmingham Southern, making life a little easier for Wesley. Rhodes went for a deuce with 1:18 left and had the try intercepted. They lose by one point. Whoa.
Good stuff out there today.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 02, 2013, 06:41:53 PM
Assuming they don't get upset the next two weeks, IWU is likely to be the first C off the board. They lost to NCC today, 46-17 (though that is misleading - they trailed 25-17 midway thru the 4th), virtually eliminating them from the AQ. (The only way they could still get it, is Wheaton beat NCC AND NCC lose to Augie at home; I'd sooner bet on a snowball's chances in hell ::).)
In the event of a 3-way NCC/Wheaton/IWU tie, IWU is out, but (assuming NCC is the AQ, which is virtually certain after the 29-point win today), the h-to-h over Wheaton should give IWU precedence over Wheaton if they're both 9-1, and I like the odds of a 9-1 CCIW runner-up being the first to go (though a 9-1 runner-up in the OAC or WIAC would be a stiff competitor).
On reconsideration - barring upsets, I think IWU is one of the first three off the C board! ;D
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 02, 2013, 08:03:09 PMI don't think any Pool C's will come from the South, or maybe not even the East.
Yeah, I'm well aware that conference membership doesn't mean squat for selection. That was just shorthand for the 3-headed monsters that the OAC, WIAC, and CCIW are this year. And I shouldn't have left out PLU. While the MIAC has a legitimate argument for being THE best conference this year, I strongly suspect their #2 team will have 2 losses.
Eagerly awaiting the RRs. I have a sneaking suspicion that all 5 Cs will be from the North and West. Can't wait for the cries of outrage elsewhere, but who is worthy from the South and East who won't be either an A or B?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2013, 08:38:31 PMThe rivalry game with Mount St Joseph (Bridge Bowl XVIII) will have a lot on the line!
Thomas More is a possibility out of the South region. Perhaps the only possibility. The East has fully cannibalized itself. The best Pool C shot there is probably Framingham State at the moment. Hobart would assume that spot (I think) if they should lose to St. Lawrence next week. In the West, Concordia-Moorhead can still finish 9-1 and be a third really strong team out of the West if they win their final two games (at St. Thomas and vs. Gustavus Adolphus...not an easy finish there). If they lose, St. Norbert at 9-1 might be the third team up in the West after PLU and the Oshkosh/Platteville winner.
But any of those teams mentioned above would all be hard to select until the very end of the selection process. Thomas More, Framingham, Norbert (or a 2-loss MIAC runner up...probably St. Thomas if it comes to that) and then a North team (I'm thinking the Wabash/Witt loser or another CCIW or OAC team in the event of tri-champs there) would probably be up for the 5th and final golden ticket.
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Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2013, 08:52:29 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2013, 08:38:31 PMThe rivalry game with Mount St Joseph (Bridge Bowl XVIII) will have a lot on the line!
Thomas More is a possibility out of the South region. Perhaps the only possibility. The East has fully cannibalized itself. The best Pool C shot there is probably Framingham State at the moment. Hobart would assume that spot (I think) if they should lose to St. Lawrence next week. In the West, Concordia-Moorhead can still finish 9-1 and be a third really strong team out of the West if they win their final two games (at St. Thomas and vs. Gustavus Adolphus...not an easy finish there). If they lose, St. Norbert at 9-1 might be the third team up in the West after PLU and the Oshkosh/Platteville winner.
But any of those teams mentioned above would all be hard to select until the very end of the selection process. Thomas More, Framingham, Norbert (or a 2-loss MIAC runner up...probably St. Thomas if it comes to that) and then a North team (I'm thinking the Wabash/Witt loser or another CCIW or OAC team in the event of tri-champs there) would probably be up for the 5th and final golden ticket.
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Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2013, 07:29:39 PMQuote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 02, 2013, 06:41:53 PM
In the event of a 3-way NCC/Wheaton/IWU tie, IWU is out, but (assuming NCC is the AQ, which is virtually certain after the 29-point win today), the h-to-h over Wheaton should give IWU precedence over Wheaton if they're both 9-1, and I like the odds of a 9-1 CCIW runner-up being the first to go (though a 9-1 runner-up in the OAC or WIAC would be a stiff competitor).
I keep missing the part in the criteria where what league a team plays in matters. I keep missing it because it isn't there.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 11:12:25 AM
Safe to say that most likely a Pool C bid will come from the WIAC. I've read in previous pages on this thread that UWP is projected to get the bid. However, after many of us WIAC fans have seen both teams play, the WIAC faithful (including myself) are confident that Oshkosh will take down UWP...capturing that at-large bid.
Platteville's high-powered offense really struggled the other day against Whitewater's defense (just one offensive TD). In two weeks when Platteville travels to Oshkosh, the Pioneers are going to experience similar frustrations as Oshkosh's D can really get after the QB. Also, UWP's defense is very average at best. They won't be able to stop Oshkosh.
It kills me to admit that UWO is the better team, because I really thought UWP was the real deal back in August (better than UWW and UWO).
Quote from: smedindy on November 04, 2013, 01:57:21 PM
I think it will be interesting to see where Framingham is ranked and if they don't get a "B" how they will stack up in the criteria against an OAC or CCIW team.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 02:23:18 PMYeah, Concordia-Moorehead is getting a bit overlooked in the recent discussion. They could definitely beat UST on Saturday. GAC won't be a pushover either, but if the Cobbers win out they'll have a strong SOS and resume just as impressive as any one loss runner-up from the CCIW, WIAC, NWC or OAC.
A lot of Pool C bubble teams (especially those programs not in the WIAC, NWC, CCIW, and OAC) are pulling for a St. Thomas win this week. That could all but eliminate the MIAC getting two teams in.
That could be good news for the Wabash/Wittenberg game loser.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 02:23:18 PMThere is no justice if the best conference in the land can't get a single at-large bid.
A lot of Pool C bubble teams (especially those programs not in the WIAC, NWC, CCIW, and OAC) are pulling for a St. Thomas win this week. That could all but eliminate the MIAC getting two teams in.
That could be good news for the Wabash/Wittenberg game loser.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:30:16 PMPacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them. Also Linfield is 7-0 (not 8-0)
My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 03:34:10 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:30:16 PMPacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.
My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:35:47 PMAnd really, Redlands may not even be on the list. They have 2 losses and will not have any wins against a ranked opponent. They have a good SOS but that probably won't count for enough to get them that high on the list. If they are on it at all, it would be at the bottom (IMO).Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 03:34:10 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:30:16 PMPacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.
My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)
Good call. Revised:
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 03:37:58 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:35:47 PMAnd really, Redlands may not even be on the list. They have 2 losses and will not have any wins against a ranked opponent. They have a good SOS but that probably won't count for enough to get them that high on the list. If they are on it at all, it would be at the bottom (IMO).Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 03:34:10 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:30:16 PMPacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.
My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)
Good call. Revised:
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:43:25 PMnah--being a conference champ (in this case) gets them a spot in the playoffs but not a regional ranking!Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 03:37:58 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:35:47 PMAnd really, Redlands may not even be on the list. They have 2 losses and will not have any wins against a ranked opponent. They have a good SOS but that probably won't count for enough to get them that high on the list. If they are on it at all, it would be at the bottom (IMO).Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 04, 2013, 03:34:10 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 04, 2013, 03:30:16 PMPacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.
My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)
Good call. Revised:
Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)
You could very well be right. I thought being conference champs and having a crazy good SOS would count for something.
Quote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 05:20:15 PM
My take:
Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)
You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).
How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.
Quote from: TitanPride on November 04, 2013, 08:57:19 PMQuote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 05:20:15 PM
My take:
Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)
You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).
How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.
Hazzben -- what's the logic for putting Platteville above IC? Platteville has a loss and a lower SOS. Do you think a result against regionally ranked outweighs those two factors?
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 08:23:25 AMQuote from: TitanPride on November 04, 2013, 08:57:19 PMQuote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 05:20:15 PM
My take:
Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)
You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).
How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.
Hazzben -- what's the logic for putting Platteville above IC? Platteville has a loss and a lower SOS. Do you think a result against regionally ranked outweighs those two factors?
Agreed, as it stands today, I would think IC is regionally ranked. Of course that could change if Platteville can beat Oshkosh in the final week of the season
Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AMIsn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?
... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AMQuote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AMIsn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?
... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 11:39:09 AMQuote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AMQuote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AMIsn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?
... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Sure, but not eveybody is undefeatd like IC
Quote from: D3MAFAN on November 05, 2013, 07:27:51 PM;) LOL!Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 11:39:09 AMQuote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AMQuote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AMIsn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?
... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Sure, but not everybody is undefeatd like IC
Undebeaten ;)
Quote from: D3MAFAN on November 05, 2013, 07:27:51 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 11:39:09 AMQuote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AMQuote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AMIsn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?
... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Sure, but not eveybody is undefeatd like IC
Undebeaten ;)
League | Team |
ASC | UMHB |
CC | Johns Hopkins |
CCIW | North Central |
ECFC | Gallaudet |
E8 | Alfred |
HCAC | Franklin |
IIAC | Wartburg |
LL | Hobart |
MAC | Lebanon Valley |
MIAC | Bethel |
MWC | Illinois College |
MIAA | Albion |
NACC | Concordia (Wis.) |
NCAC | Wabash |
NEFC | Salve Regina |
NJAC | Rowan |
NWC | Linfield |
OAC | Mount Union |
ODAC | Hampden-Sydney |
PAC | Washington & Jefferson |
SCIAC | Redlands |
UMAC | Greenville |
USAC | Maryville |
WIAC | UW-Whitewater |
Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan. Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will too). No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 03:38:11 PMQuote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan. Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will too). No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...
Yup - any Pool C hopefuls need the OAC and CCIW to become clean 10-0/9-1/8-2 splits, methinks. I also wonder if it would help the rest of Pool C if Framingham gets in through Pool B along with TLU and Millsaps; not sure whether you prefer being on the board against 9-1 Framingham with a possible win over RRO (if Endicott wins out, see Pool B board) or Wesley who HAS played a very difficult schedule but doesn't have any wins vs. RRO, but I think Wesley's resume looks a little thinner than Framingham's for the Pool C folks.
Quote from: wesleydad on November 06, 2013, 04:23:50 PMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 03:38:11 PMQuote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan. Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will too). No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...
Yup - any Pool C hopefuls need the OAC and CCIW to become clean 10-0/9-1/8-2 splits, methinks. I also wonder if it would help the rest of Pool C if Framingham gets in through Pool B along with TLU and Millsaps; not sure whether you prefer being on the board against 9-1 Framingham with a possible win over RRO (if Endicott wins out, see Pool B board) or Wesley who HAS played a very difficult schedule but doesn't have any wins vs. RRO, but I think Wesley's resume looks a little thinner than Framingham's for the Pool C folks.
ex tartan, playing hypotheticals here. if salisbury beats ithaca and huntingdon wins this week, both could end up ranked and wesley then has 2 wins against regionally ranked teams. if that occurs they are a strong B likely pushing framingham into the C pool.
Quote from: art76 on November 07, 2013, 01:49:17 PMYeah--who knows what they are thinking. But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking. I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....
One has to wonder a bit if the Regional Ranking committee didn't rank Redlands or PacificLutheranin this first ranking because of the current uncertainty in the MIAC and IIAC? If St. Thomas loses to Concordia this week and St. John's loses to Bethel next week, or if Wartburg stumbles, then, as a committee, you could slip one or both of these West Coast teams in later Regional Rankings and everything is right with the world. I don't know that they would think that way as a collective, but it seems plausible now.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2013, 03:20:17 PM
But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking. I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....
Quote from: hazzben on November 07, 2013, 04:32:56 PMGood points-PLU is done after this week (against Whitworth) so they will have a long, long week of waiting, followed by a long, long night of waiting. :)Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2013, 03:20:17 PM
But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking. I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....
PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.
But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?
I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.
How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).
It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.
Quote from: hazzben on November 07, 2013, 04:32:56 PMQuote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2013, 03:20:17 PM
But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking. I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....
PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.
But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?
I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.
How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).
It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2013, 04:40:01 PMI think Linfield is probably stuck where they are unless a) they lose a game or b) Bethel and/or Whitewater lose a game. I just don't see the Cats SOS or wins vs. regional opponents gaining enough to pass those two teams. However, PLU would benefit from Pacific (and/or Redlands) jumping into the mix.Quote from: hazzben on November 07, 2013, 04:32:56 PMQuote from: MonroviaCat on November 07, 2013, 03:20:17 PM
But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking. I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....
PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.
But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?
I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.
How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).
It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.
PLU and Linfield both could really use a big Pacific win over Willamette this week combined with one of the lower-level teams losing THIS WEEK so Pacific sneaks in once. Assuming they lose to Linfield the following week, they probably won't get in. So PLU needs a little bit of armageddon at the bottom of the rankings this week that allows Pacific to get in there this week, giving both PLU and Linfield that win over a RRO.
Also, you listed Illinois College as a possible team that could sneak in, but I thought IC was already ranked #8?
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2013, 04:40:01 PM
Also, you listed Illinois College as a possible team that could sneak in, but I thought IC was already ranked #8?
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2013, 05:01:36 PMQuite likely even if Hobart wins out.
How about this?
If Hobart loses against SLU or Rochester, then there isn't a power team to be the #1 seed in the East.
Does that move UMU to the top of the "East" bracket and make way for UWW (a "North" bracket) and Bethel (a "West" bracket) to head brackets?
That would let Linfield move to the #2 in the "West" bracket.
Quote from: d-train on November 07, 2013, 05:07:06 PMQuote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2013, 05:01:36 PMQuite likely even if Hobart wins out.
How about this?
If Hobart loses against SLU or Rochester, then there isn't a power team to be the #1 seed in the East.
Does that move UMU to the top of the "East" bracket and make way for UWW (a "North" bracket) and Bethel (a "West" bracket) to head brackets?
That would let Linfield move to the #2 in the "West" bracket.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:35:52 PMReally? ...very interesting. That changes quite a bit of the analysis/hope that some fans have scraped together.
By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:35:52 PM
By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 07, 2013, 05:47:57 PM
Pat, that is news! When (and why?) did they drop 'once ranked, always ranked'?
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2013, 05:51:02 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:35:52 PM
By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.
whoa, whoa, whoa, really?
We've been making all of our assumptions based on that! Wow, this changes a lot!
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:35:52 PM
By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.
Quote from: hazzben on November 07, 2013, 06:11:36 PM
Whoa! So Pacific is probably meaningless for PLU, unless they pull off a huge upset.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:56:25 PMI agree. If a team is that good by the 9th week of the season, then they have to be on the edge of the Top 10. In parts of the countyry where it is unlikely to schedule other ranked teams, or in conferences where you only have one OOC game (e.g., Centennial, OAC), I want every datum that I can get.Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 07, 2013, 05:47:57 PM
Pat, that is news! When (and why?) did they drop 'once ranked, always ranked'?
Honestly, they have gone back and forth several times in the course of this playoff structure. I know the why is likely because they feel that a win against a team that could well end up 7-3 or 6-3 is not necessarily a valuable data point.
I feel any data point is a worthy data point.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2013, 06:39:44 PM
I agree. If a team is that good by the 9th week of the season, then they have to be on the edge of the Top 10. In parts of the countyry where it is unlikely to schedule other ranked teams, or in conferences where you only have one OOC game (e.g., Centennial, OAC), I want every datum that I can get.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 07, 2013, 06:00:39 PMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2013, 05:51:02 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:35:52 PM
By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.
whoa, whoa, whoa, really?
We've been making all of our assumptions based on that! Wow, this changes a lot!
Yeah, I'd root for Hope over Albion in week 11 anyway, but now it is really important for seeding purposes for IWU (I feel pretty confident of a pool C either way) - 2-1 vs. RROs looks considerably better than 1-1! ;)
Quote from: AO on November 08, 2013, 07:32:22 AM
Do they only count the regionally ranked wins after the final secret regional rankings have been decided? Or are they counting based upon the previous week's regional rankings?
Quote from: hazzben on November 07, 2013, 06:11:36 PMQuote from: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2013, 05:35:52 PM
By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.
Whoa! So Pacific is probably meaningless for PLU, unless they pull off a huge upset.
UWW should be cheering hard for Wash U v. Chicago.
Bethel wants Wartburg to win out. Roll of the dice if the Cobbers could survive a 2nd loss to UST and still remain ranked. Maybe both get in, depending on how things play out. But probably safer to hope Cobbers and Wartburg prevail and count our blessings that we could be 2-0 v. RRO. If both lose, it's possible Bethel finishes 0-0 v. RRO. Talk about a shift!
Man, that is a huge swing in how the seeding and Pool C criteria will play out!
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 09:40:17 AMI don't know if anything is safe to say. I think St. Thomas gets in to the regional rankings after beating Concordia giving them the best win of any of the 2 loss teams. This in turn also gives St. John's a regionally ranked win that will be counted in the secret rankings?
So it's safe to say that Bethel probably can't count on St. John's as a regional win? Assuming Bethel takes care of the Johnnies? ;)
You're right about Whitewater becoming a huge Wash U fan now!! Hopefully whoever loses between UWP and UWO doesn't fall off the rankings.
Quote from: AO on November 08, 2013, 10:00:16 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 09:40:17 AMI don't know if anything is safe to say. I think St. Thomas gets in to the regional rankings after beating Concordia giving them the best win of any of the 2 loss teams. This in turn also gives St. John's a regionally ranked win that will be counted in the secret rankings?
So it's safe to say that Bethel probably can't count on St. John's as a regional win? Assuming Bethel takes care of the Johnnies? ;)
You're right about Whitewater becoming a huge Wash U fan now!! Hopefully whoever loses between UWP and UWO doesn't fall off the rankings.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 10:03:33 AMQuote from: AO on November 08, 2013, 10:00:16 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 09:40:17 AMI don't know if anything is safe to say. I think St. Thomas gets in to the regional rankings after beating Concordia giving them the best win of any of the 2 loss teams. This in turn also gives St. John's a regionally ranked win that will be counted in the secret rankings?
So it's safe to say that Bethel probably can't count on St. John's as a regional win? Assuming Bethel takes care of the Johnnies? ;)
You're right about Whitewater becoming a huge Wash U fan now!! Hopefully whoever loses between UWP and UWO doesn't fall off the rankings.
Seems like Bethel can only count on a receiving a regional win against St. John's or St. thomas...but not both. If Concordia can knocks off UST (which is very possible), then Wartburg might be their only hope for a second regional win.
things just got a helluva lot interesting for the top spot in the West.
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:05:42 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 10:03:33 AMQuote from: AO on November 08, 2013, 10:00:16 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 09:40:17 AMI don't know if anything is safe to say. I think St. Thomas gets in to the regional rankings after beating Concordia giving them the best win of any of the 2 loss teams. This in turn also gives St. John's a regionally ranked win that will be counted in the secret rankings?
So it's safe to say that Bethel probably can't count on St. John's as a regional win? Assuming Bethel takes care of the Johnnies? ;)
You're right about Whitewater becoming a huge Wash U fan now!! Hopefully whoever loses between UWP and UWO doesn't fall off the rankings.
Seems like Bethel can only count on a receiving a regional win against St. John's or St. thomas...but not both. If Concordia can knocks off UST (which is very possible), then Wartburg might be their only hope for a second regional win.
things just got a helluva lot interesting for the top spot in the West.
Yep, a 3 loss SJU is gone from the rankings, regardless of how UST v. Cobbers shakes out. If UST were to beat Concordia, there's a slight chance Concordia could stay in the rankings. They'd have to have a competitive loss, IMO. Then it's a question of how the committee stacks up all the two loss teams (Redlands, SJU, UST, Concordia, Wartburg, etc.)
For Whitewater's sake, I think you should be cheering for UWP. If UWO loses they could still stay in, UWP's SOS will be a big millstone to overcome.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 11:23:19 AM
I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.
Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.
Quote from: smedindy on November 09, 2013, 05:07:49 PM
Well, let me just say that this will be an INTERESTING week in Pool C and playoff projection land. Sigh.
I think it's very safe to say that no "B" will cross into "C" land and unless there's a shock in the RR's, or something nuts happens it'll probably be Framingham, Wesley and Millsaps. as a "B".
Franklin lost to Bluffton this week so insanity can happen.
My gut is that the "C"s will be JCU (or Mt. Union, heck, JCU looked that good), the WIAC runner up, Illinois Wesleyan, PLU (if they beat Whitworth), and dealer's choice from Wabash, Thomas More or Illinois College. Perhaps St. Thomas or St. John's could horn in if the West committee ranks them ahead of Illinois College.
Quote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:43:27 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 11:23:19 AM
I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.
Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.
Correct, we'll only see next Wednesday's rankings. The final ones are secret.
But we'll get some more clarity this week. How the UST game shakes out and how the committee responds will give us some clues. If Pacific wins it gets interesting. And if Wash U beats Chicago I think we can assume they'll stay ranked and remain a boost for UWW. If they loose, we should assume they fall out, as they'd have 3 losses.
Going into this weekend, I'd lean towards both UWW and Bethel having two. In which case, I don't see how UWW doesn't remain #1 in the West. Although I haven't looked at how their SOS or Bethel's will be affected by the remaining games.
Quote from: HSCTiger74 on November 09, 2013, 06:35:18 PMQuote from: hazzben on November 08, 2013, 11:43:27 AMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 08, 2013, 11:23:19 AM
I have a feeling when it's all said and done. Bethel and UWW will be sitting with only two regional wins.
Since UWO and UWP play on the last week, we'll never now what the loser of that game will be regionally ranked. We don't get the regional rankings after the final week....because the tournament brackets released, right? If I'm looking at it correctly, we only get one more regional rankings, next week.
Correct, we'll only see next Wednesday's rankings. The final ones are secret.
But we'll get some more clarity this week. How the UST game shakes out and how the committee responds will give us some clues. If Pacific wins it gets interesting. And if Wash U beats Chicago I think we can assume they'll stay ranked and remain a boost for UWW. If they loose, we should assume they fall out, as they'd have 3 losses.
Going into this weekend, I'd lean towards both UWW and Bethel having two. In which case, I don't see how UWW doesn't remain #1 in the West. Although I haven't looked at how their SOS or Bethel's will be affected by the remaining games.
Whenever I read this in a post my first thought is "Oh yeah, the Dean Wormer Rankings". :)
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMGonna get interesting with 4 of the 10 losing today.....Quote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 09:17:02 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMGonna get interesting with 4 of the 10 losing today.....Quote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:36:36 PMyes--good point. The West Regional Rankings could be very interesting though----3 MIAC teams with 2 losses, 2 WIAC teams with 1 loss but with low SOS.......it will mostly work itself out by the end but for this week it could be a big mess!Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2013, 09:17:02 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMGonna get interesting with 4 of the 10 losing today.....Quote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
How they get ordered could be interesting, but really, I think the 10 you saw on Wednesday are going to be the same 10 you see this week. Those 10 have pretty seriously lapped the field in the North region. Those losses aren't going to knock anybody out of the rankings. With the possible exception that a second MIAA team makes a brief cameo before picking up a 3rd loss next week.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 10:11:41 PM
I have looked at the criteria for pool C. And I know that records against RRO is one of them. My question is: what are the criteria for Regional Rankings? More specifically, does it have anything to do with RRO? I"m guessing it can't because there's no way of knowing how another region will rank teams. For example, the committee for the West couldn't have known that Wash U would be ranked when they ranked UW-W #1, right?
Quote from: hazzben on November 09, 2013, 11:25:48 PMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 10:11:41 PM
I have looked at the criteria for pool C. And I know that records against RRO is one of them. My question is: what are the criteria for Regional Rankings? More specifically, does it have anything to do with RRO? I"m guessing it can't because there's no way of knowing how another region will rank teams. For example, the committee for the West couldn't have known that Wash U would be ranked when they ranked UW-W #1, right?
RRO is a criteria for Regional Rankings. The first ranking is especially tricky, since for example, the West Com had no idea if Wash U would get ranked. The final RR can be adjusted by the national committee I believe. The RRO is certainly adjusted, especially this year since they just dropped the once-ranked-always-ranked criteria.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 10, 2013, 12:12:30 AM
I know there aren't that many inter-region games like the UW-W/Wash U example. So maybe that makes it inconsequential. But according to Keith (I believe), the committees' conversations start well before the rankings are announced on Wednesdays. I wonder if there might be some communication between the committees as well. I know St. Thomas or St. John's could sneak into the West rankings this week and the #1 seed could flip. On the other hand, if UW-W was ranked #1 with the committee NOT knowing Wash U was ranked, maybe their ACTUAL presence in the rankings helps UW-W. Again, my hat's off to you guys who study this and track it. I just need the experts to tell me who are the winners and losers (both in terms of seedings and pool C contenders) of this weekend and we are good to go! :)
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 10:11:41 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
Not suggesting it would matter, was just curious. Didn't realize the north was quite so shallow that the 9th ranked team would lose by 6 touchdowns and stay ranked. But I don't follow all this criteria stuff all that closely. I do love reading this board and thanks all of you who put the work in to sort it out for us.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 10, 2013, 07:27:15 AM
There is a chance that your deep West Region will rank St. Norbert this week with Illinois College's loss; you'll note that SNC lost by 41 points to that same John Carroll team in the opener.
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 10, 2013, 07:27:15 AMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 10:11:41 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
Not suggesting it would matter, was just curious. Didn't realize the north was quite so shallow that the 9th ranked team would lose by 6 touchdowns and stay ranked. But I don't follow all this criteria stuff all that closely. I do love reading this board and thanks all of you who put the work in to sort it out for us.
I don't necessarily think this shows that the North is that shallow. That 9th-ranked team lost by 10 to the first-ranked team the week before. I think it shows common sense among committee members to consider that a good team can struggle against another really good team (John Carroll is really, really, really effing good in case you haven't noticed) a week after losing their biggest game of the season. Heidelberg's body of work suggests that they should stay in (ranking a team from a lesser conference just because they didn't have to play the region's best teams is even dumber than ranking a team that lost by 6 touchdowns). There are comparable examples in just about every region. Pacific Lutheran lost by four touchdowns to the third-ranked team in the West (I'm well aware that game was competitive late, just making a statement similar to yours) and is still ranked seventh (as they should be). Wesley got as obliterated as you can get by UMHB (I don't care that the score was 'only' 35-7, they were outgained 400 to 26 through three quarters) and is fourth in the South (a criminally high ranking, BTW, but a ranking nevertheless). A blowout loss does not preclude a team from sticking around the bottom of the rankings. There is a chance that your deep West Region will rank St. Norbert this week with Illinois College's loss; you'll note that SNC lost by 41 points to that same John Carroll team in the opener.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 11:39:09 AMSo much for THAT!
Sure, but not everybody is undefeated like IC
QuotePool C (Seven for five spots)
John Carroll/Mount Union loser
UW-Platteville/UW-Oshkosh winner
Pacific Lutheran, 8-1, .545
Illinois Wesleyan, 8-1, .502
Wabash, 8-1, .514
Thomas More, 8-1, .470
Illinois College, 8-1, .460
That's not including Chapman, which is 7-1 with a .428
Quote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
Quote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PMHow could the SOS get much better? The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Quote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.
Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 10, 2013, 07:25:22 PM
I imagine the better experts are waiting for the new RRs on Wednesday before prognosticating, but I can't wait. ;)
Locks:
(9-1) loser of UMU/JCU
(9-1) winner of UWP/UWO
(9-1) IWU (assuming no monumental upset at home vs Elmhurst)
Veritable Lock:
(8-1) Pac Lu (end of regular season)
That leaves for spot #5:
9-1 Wabash (assuming they win the Monon Bell)
9-1 Thomas More (assuming they win the Bridge Bowl)
the top 8-2 MIAC team (SJU if they upset Bethel, otherwise UST)
the top 8-2 E8 team (the winner of SJF/Alfred)
[I don't think one-loss Illinois College or Tx Lu has a prayer. Nor do I think Wheaton, Heidelberg, or the UWP/UWO loser has a chance.]]
Anyone I've inadvertently omitted?
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 10, 2013, 01:45:48 PMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 10, 2013, 07:27:15 AMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 10:11:41 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2013, 09:09:00 PMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 09, 2013, 08:59:39 PM
Mount Union. Now there's a team that is not talked about too often in this thread!
I have a question. With Franklin losing and Heidelberg getting destroyed today, the probability exists that, if John Carroll beat the Raiders next week, Mount will have zero wins against regionally ranked opponents. Assuming the Raiders are still a pool C lock, what kind of seed are they looking at with no RRO wins?
Mount Union hasn't lost a road game in 20 years. I'm not sure it matters what their seed would be.
Even so, I think you're probably assuming that Heidelberg is dropping out of the North's RRs and I don't believe that they will. I can't find a logical reason why the RAC wouldn't recognize Heidelberg as one of the top 10 teams in the region.
To whit- The teams you would be looking at here are Concordia (Wis), Benedictine, Albion, and Hope. The NACC teams both have worse SOSs than Heidelberg (which is no small feat). Albion or Hope are going to pick up a loss. So that pushes Heidelberg back in after week 11, even if they slipped out this week.
Not suggesting it would matter, was just curious. Didn't realize the north was quite so shallow that the 9th ranked team would lose by 6 touchdowns and stay ranked. But I don't follow all this criteria stuff all that closely. I do love reading this board and thanks all of you who put the work in to sort it out for us.
I don't necessarily think this shows that the North is that shallow. That 9th-ranked team lost by 10 to the first-ranked team the week before. I think it shows common sense among committee members to consider that a good team can struggle against another really good team (John Carroll is really, really, really effing good in case you haven't noticed) a week after losing their biggest game of the season. Heidelberg's body of work suggests that they should stay in (ranking a team from a lesser conference just because they didn't have to play the region's best teams is even dumber than ranking a team that lost by 6 touchdowns). There are comparable examples in just about every region. Pacific Lutheran lost by four touchdowns to the third-ranked team in the West (I'm well aware that game was competitive late, just making a statement similar to yours) and is still ranked seventh (as they should be). Wesley got as obliterated as you can get by UMHB (I don't care that the score was 'only' 35-7, they were outgained 400 to 26 through three quarters) and is fourth in the South (a criminally high ranking, BTW, but a ranking nevertheless). A blowout loss does not preclude a team from sticking around the bottom of the rankings. There is a chance that your deep West Region will rank St. Norbert this week with Illinois College's loss; you'll note that SNC lost by 41 points to that same John Carroll team in the opener.
Poor choice of words. My bad. I wasn't trying to slap the north. I was trying to make my point without being too wordy. What I should have said was that I didn't realize quite how set the top 10 must be in the North that a team could lose by 42 in week 10 and still probably remain ranked. I think highly of the north. That's why I was thinking there must be a team on the edges of the Top 10 that would be ready to jump in there upon a result like that.
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PMHow could the SOS get much better? The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John'sQuote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.
Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.
Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
How could the SOS get much better? The MIAC has one non-conference loss.
Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 04:42:53 PMQuote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PMHow could the SOS get much better? The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John'sQuote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.
Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460
That is phenomenal. It also doesn't mean that God's own D-III conference is out there wailing away on D-III elites on the reg. Among the giants slain by the mighty MIAC:
0-9 UW-River Falls...twice
1-8 UW-Eau Claire...twice
3-6 Buena Vista...twice
3-6 Macalester...twice
2-7 Grinnell
3-7 Minnesota-Morris
something called Jamestown, which appears to be a 3-7 NAIA team
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 04:42:53 PMYou exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP. The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid. They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PMHow could the SOS get much better? The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John'sQuote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.
Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460
That is phenomenal. It also doesn't mean that God's own D-III conference is out there wailing away on D-III elites on the reg. Among the giants slain by the mighty MIAC:
0-9 UW-River Falls...twice
1-8 UW-Eau Claire...twice
3-6 Buena Vista...twice
3-6 Macalester...twice
2-7 Grinnell
3-7 Minnesota-Morris
something called Jamestown, which appears to be a 3-7 NAIA team
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 11, 2013, 04:31:51 PMQuote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 10, 2013, 07:25:22 PM
I imagine the better experts are waiting for the new RRs on Wednesday before prognosticating, but I can't wait. ;)
Locks:
(9-1) loser of UMU/JCU
(9-1) winner of UWP/UWO
(9-1) IWU (assuming no monumental upset at home vs Elmhurst)
Veritable Lock:
(8-1) Pac Lu (end of regular season)
That leaves for spot #5:
9-1 Wabash (assuming they win the Monon Bell)
9-1 Thomas More (assuming they win the Bridge Bowl)
the top 8-2 MIAC team (SJU if they upset Bethel, otherwise UST)
the top 8-2 E8 team (the winner of SJF/Alfred)
[I don't think one-loss Illinois College or Tx Lu has a prayer. Nor do I think Wheaton, Heidelberg, or the UWP/UWO loser has a chance.]]
Anyone I've inadvertently omitted?
Basically my take as well, under the assumption that the three Pool B teams are Millsaps, Wesley, and Framingham State. If TLU somehow gets picked over Framingham for the third Pool B bid, then I think Framingham will be atop the East's Pool C board and have a decent chance to get in. I don't think that really should happen, but who knows exactly what we'll see. Further out on the fringes is WashU, but that is wayyyy on the fringes (and being ranked behind TMC at the moment in the RR's, I think they're unlikely to ever reach the table for discussion).
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM[/b]Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 04:42:53 PMYou exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP. The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid. They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PMHow could the SOS get much better? The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John'sQuote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?
I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.
Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460
That is phenomenal. It also doesn't mean that God's own D-III conference is out there wailing away on D-III elites on the reg. Among the giants slain by the mighty MIAC:
0-9 UW-River Falls...twice
1-8 UW-Eau Claire...twice
3-6 Buena Vista...twice
3-6 Macalester...twice
2-7 Grinnell
3-7 Minnesota-Morris
something called Jamestown, which appears to be a 3-7 NAIA team
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP. The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid. They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 06:34:21 PMQuote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP. The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid. They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.
Wait. Do we know this? I don't think we know this.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 06:34:21 PMQuote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP. The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid. They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.
Wait. Do we know this? I don't think we know this.
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PMdang it, I was mistaken. You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt.
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 08:29:23 PMQuote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PMdang it, I was mistaken. You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt.
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best. The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I
But, Oregon is nice this time of year ? ;)
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 08:29:23 PMQuote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PMdang it, I was mistaken. You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt.
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best. The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I don't think enough to cover the spread between the two. I've got to think it's likely Concordia would stay in the regional rankings with a win over Gustavus, giving St. Thomas another advantage.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 09:39:18 PMQuote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 08:29:23 PMQuote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PMdang it, I was mistaken. You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt.
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best. The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I don't think enough to cover the spread between the two. I've got to think it's likely Concordia would stay in the regional rankings with a win over Gustavus, giving St. Thomas another advantage.
We probably shouldn't forget win-loss percentage as a primary criteria. That one is important, too.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 12, 2013, 08:41:16 AMThe one loss teams didn't win their games either. We see plenty of examples of 2 loss teams ranked ahead of 1 loss teams in the regional rankings.
After listening to this week's podcast and hearing the list of one loss teams (and seeing who they play this week), I think the chances of any two loss teams making it are very, very slim. And the good thing is, none of them would have a valid complaint. Win your games.
Quote from: art76 on November 12, 2013, 10:29:26 AM
It is unlikely that any of us discussing the possibilities on this board will be sitting in the selection committee. Do they lurk? Unknown to me, Pat might know. One could hope that it was required reading because then they would have a feel for what "the country" is thinking in a collective sense. (Or at least what the vocal fans were saying/thinking.) Every year for the past 5 or so that I've been following closely here on D3.com a similar song gets sung - "my 2 or 3 loss team can beat your 1 loss team, so it should get in to Pool C".
Quote from: hazzben on November 12, 2013, 10:55:02 AMQuote from: art76 on November 12, 2013, 10:29:26 AM
It is unlikely that any of us discussing the possibilities on this board will be sitting in the selection committee. Do they lurk? Unknown to me, Pat might know. One could hope that it was required reading because then they would have a feel for what "the country" is thinking in a collective sense. (Or at least what the vocal fans were saying/thinking.) Every year for the past 5 or so that I've been following closely here on D3.com a similar song gets sung - "my 2 or 3 loss team can beat your 1 loss team, so it should get in to Pool C".
I'd disagree with this for the following reasons:
1. There is a good deal of homerism on these boards. Some posters are well informed and others just aren't. Unless you follow the boards closely for the duration of a season, and even over the course of a few years, you don't know who to lend an ear to and who to tune out.
2. They shouldn't be making this decision at all based on what the fans are saying/thinking. Not...at...all. I've said before, I'd love to see Pat or Keith get a seat on the nominating committee, to bring in an exhaustive knowledge of D3, the playoff history, a national perspective, etc. But I don't want even the most knowledgable fan anywhere close to the selection criteria.
3. Added to this is that what is represented here on the boards is in no way, shape, or form a fair sampling of what 'the country is thinking.' Not that it should even matter, but what we see on here is anecdotal evidence of opinions. Some teams are more represented, and their fans post more frequently and more vocally. That shouldn't bias the selection process. Where a team having a good season, but with few d3football.com posters doesn't pass the 'smell test' because they aren't getting mentioned as much or as passionately in the conversation.
4. As the Regional Committees are now set up, they are generally representative of the regions. Members can speak to the teams they've seen and played against. Representation is happening. And let's be honest, the coach who spends 80-90 hours preparing to face team X, then actually faces off against them on the field, has a much better sense of who they are than any of us casual fans. I've seen every Bethel game this year and watched portions or full games of a dozen other teams that are in the hunt. But I don't for a second think I have the best read on UST, Concordia and SJU. Johnson and Horan have hundreds of hours seeing these teams. Same goes for the other reps. The AD's have no doubt been informed of their respective coaches opinions.
I just don't want the Regional or National committees sniffing anywhere around these boards. Some great things find there way on here. But there's also plenty that is way out in left field. Just my 22¢ :)
Quote from: AO on November 12, 2013, 09:06:41 AMQuote from: bleedpurple on November 12, 2013, 08:41:16 AMThe one loss teams didn't win their games either. We see plenty of examples of 2 loss teams ranked ahead of 1 loss teams in the regional rankings.
After listening to this week's podcast and hearing the list of one loss teams (and seeing who they play this week), I think the chances of any two loss teams making it are very, very slim. And the good thing is, none of them would have a valid complaint. Win your games.
Quote from: AO on November 12, 2013, 11:48:33 AM
I think we're giving a little too much credit to the committees. They are restrained by the criteria. They can't use their knowledge from watching film or even a ranking system that utilizes margin of victory in its calculation. We're left to guess which criteria the current makeup of the committee favors.
Quote from: AO on November 12, 2013, 11:48:33 AM
I think we're giving a little too much credit to the committees. They are restrained by the criteria. They can't use their knowledge from watching film or even a ranking system that utilizes margin of victory in its calculation. We're left to guess which criteria the current makeup of the committee favors.
Quote from: smedindy on November 13, 2013, 12:59:14 PM
The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.
Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 13, 2013, 12:59:14 PM
The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.
Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.
I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.
If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
Quote from: smedindy on November 13, 2013, 12:59:14 PM
Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 01:27:43 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 PM
I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.
If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane. If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 13, 2013, 12:59:14 PM
The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.
Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.
I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.
If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
Quote from: d-train on November 13, 2013, 01:45:39 PMThat raises my previous question about what is a regionally ranked win. If St. John's was in the ranking last week, Concordia would have a regionally ranked win this week but perhaps not in the secret rankings if the Johnnies fall out.Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 01:27:43 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 PM
I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.
If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane. If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation.
But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right? Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 01:55:37 PMQuote from: d-train on November 13, 2013, 01:45:39 PMThat raises my previous question about what is a regionally ranked win. If St. John's was in the ranking last week, Concordia would have a regionally ranked win this week but perhaps not in the secret rankings if the Johnnies fall out.Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 01:27:43 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 PM
I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.
If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane. If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation.
But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right? Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:02:57 PMLet me see if I have this right.
That's correct. I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:10:09 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:02:57 PMLet me see if I have this right.
That's correct. I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt.
On Selection Sunday the regional rankings are done using the previous week's public regional rankings to count which games are regionally ranked. Then when the pool C teams get to the table in front of the national committee the number of regionally ranked wins and losses is calculated again based on the secret regional rankings?
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:10:09 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:02:57 PMLet me see if I have this right.
That's correct. I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt.
On Selection Sunday the regional rankings are done using the previous week's public regional rankings to count which games are regionally ranked. Then when the pool C teams get to the table in front of the national committee the number of regionally ranked wins and losses is calculated again based on the secret regional rankings?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Quote from: d-train on November 13, 2013, 01:45:39 PMyes. CM #9Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 01:27:43 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 PM
I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.
If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane. If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation.
But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right? Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:18:42 PMWhy would they be constrained to regional data if they're using the previous week's rankings? The national committee uses the secret rankings to compare teams from different regions, but I'd still think the East RAC would count the SJF win over WJ.
Seems that would be the case, but I think maybe that the regional committees are a little more constrained to strictly regional data...so for instance, SJF's win against WJ probably means more to the national committee than it does to the East RAC. Otherwise, you're right. I'm not sure how each RAC can ever settle on a list of 10 if they require the other region's list to make decisions. It's a cycle that never ends. This is why it's really kind of absurd to toss away the once ranked, always ranked instruction. That's valuable data (like recognizing that beating SJU is noteworthy) that's going to be ignored.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:42:25 PMI meant to say regionally ranked wins, not just regional wins.Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Bethels wins are all in-region. That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings. There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:47:34 PM
This means that next week Bethel will move ahead of Whitewater in the secret regional rankings...
So, we know exactly what data the regional committee is using...
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:10:36 PMThen it's going to be really weird next week when the regional committee sees that Bethel moved from 2 to 4 regionally ranked wins despite the fact that St. John's will likely fall out of the rankings.Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Bethel hasn't actually played St. John's yet.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 03:14:05 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:10:36 PMThen it's going to be really weird next week when the regional committee sees that Bethel moved from 2 to 4 regionally ranked wins despite St. John's falling out of the rankings.Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Bethel hasn't actually played St. John's yet.
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 13, 2013, 03:15:18 PMHave you been following along at all? The regional committee counts it as a regionally ranked win as they don't anticipate their own regional rankings.
St Johns wouldn't be ranked then.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:16:02 PM2013:
However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:16:02 PM
I'm pretty thrilled that I nailed a bunch of observations in the primer -- that Brockport was the 10th East team, that nobody new would move in in the North, that Millsaps would leap Wesley (by saying that an unbeaten can't go before a two-loss) and that all four of Bethel's opponents would be ranked in the West.
No major surprises in there for me.
However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.
League | Team |
ASC | UMHB |
CC | Johns Hopkins |
CCIW | North Central |
ECFC | Gallaudet |
E8 | Itahca |
HCAC | Franklin |
IIAC | Wartburg |
LL | Hobart |
MAC | Lebanon Valley |
MIAC | Bethel |
MWC | St. Norbert |
MIAA | Albion |
NACC | Concordia (Wis.) |
NCAC | Wittenberg |
NEFC | Salve Regina |
NJAC | Rowan |
NWC | Linfield |
OAC | Mount Union |
ODAC | Hampden-Sydney |
PAC | Washington & Jefferson |
SCIAC | Redlands |
UMAC | St. Scholastica |
USAC | Maryville |
WIAC | UW-Whitewater |
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 13, 2013, 03:31:35 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:16:02 PM
I'm pretty thrilled that I nailed a bunch of observations in the primer -- that Brockport was the 10th East team, that nobody new would move in in the North, that Millsaps would leap Wesley (by saying that an unbeaten can't go before a two-loss) and that all four of Bethel's opponents would be ranked in the West.
No major surprises in there for me.
However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.
Definitely a great job! +k
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 03:54:46 PMSJF/Alfred could go from 2 RR wins to O with a little help from Waynesburg/Morrisville State and if the East RAC drops the loser out (more likely if Alfred loses).
So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins. That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 04:08:55 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 03:54:46 PMSJF/Alfred could go from 2 RR wins to O with a little help from Waynesburg/Morrisville State and if the East RAC drops the loser out (more likely if Alfred loses).
So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins. That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 03:54:46 PM
So anyway, my Pool C's are:
John Carroll
IWU
UW-Oskhosh/Platteville winner
Pacific Lutheran
Wabash
This is in no way groundbreaking as this is what we've kind of been pointing toward since Saturday evening and was pretty strongly alluded to (if not said outright) in the ATN piece that went up today.
Quote from: art76 on November 13, 2013, 04:42:26 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 03:54:46 PM
So anyway, my Pool C's are:
John Carroll
IWU
UW-Oskhosh/Platteville winner
Pacific Lutheran
Wabash
This is in no way groundbreaking as this is what we've kind of been pointing toward since Saturday evening and was pretty strongly alluded to (if not said outright) in the ATN piece that went up today.
Wally, you do a great job of this every year, thanx! If John Caroll does beat Mount Union so that UMU is now in the Pool C festivities, does it really change anything?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:42:25 PMQuote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Bethels wins are all in-region. That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings. There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 14, 2013, 08:03:55 AMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:42:25 PMQuote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Bethels wins are all in-region. That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings. There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.
First of all, you do an awesome job in analyzing and explaining all this. +k!
But I do have a question...
Is there something in the handbook that suggests that all RRO must be considered exactly equal? In other words, is a win over Mount Union to be treated the exact same way as a win over Brockport State (3 losses)? If the answer is yes, then that's ridiculous. If the answer is no, I don't understand your position AT ALL. Bethel's three RRO all have two losses. Two of UW-W's opponents haven't lost a single game other than to them (obviously, that makes them ONE loss teams). The other has two losses. In addition, coming into this week UW-W is ranked 13th compared to 23rd for Bethel in SOS (Maybe the margin is negligible, but for sure it isn't a huge Bethel edge). I'm not sure what the criteria based excuse would be to put Bethel ahead of Whitewater. I'm sure I am missing something because you rarely do. If you could explain it to me, that would be great.
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 04:08:55 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 03:54:46 PMSJF/Alfred could go from 2 RR wins to O with a little help from Waynesburg/Morrisville State and if the East RAC drops the loser out (more likely if Alfred loses).
So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins. That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates.
Quote from: smedindy on November 13, 2013, 06:27:52 PM
Also thinking of how much more intrigue there'd be for SJF / Alfred had the Saxons' not screwed up against RPI way back when.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 14, 2013, 08:03:55 AMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:42:25 PMQuote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PMI think this proves my theory correct. The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings. They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.
RRs are out. STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West. Bethel is #2. If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2. Just can't. Total whiff by the West RAC. The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming.
Alright...projections coming shortly.
Bethels wins are all in-region. That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings. There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.
First of all, you do an awesome job in analyzing and explaining all this. +k!
But I do have a question...
Is there something in the handbook that suggests that all RRO must be considered exactly equal? In other words, is a win over Mount Union to be treated the exact same way as a win over Brockport State (3 losses)? If the answer is yes, then that's ridiculous. If the answer is no, I don't understand your position AT ALL. Bethel's three RRO all have two losses. Two of UW-W's opponents haven't lost a single game other than to them (obviously, that makes them ONE loss teams). The other has two losses. In addition, coming into this week UW-W is ranked 13th compared to 23rd for Bethel in SOS (Maybe the margin is negligible, but for sure it isn't a huge Bethel edge). I'm not sure what the criteria based excuse would be to put Bethel ahead of Whitewater. I'm sure I am missing something because you rarely do. If you could explain it to me, that would be great.
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 14, 2013, 10:08:24 AM
So the lose of PLU to Linfield is a good thing? 29-0 They held linfield to only 7 points for 3qt's and then held them to a season low 29 points? If I read you right .. Good thing for PLU.. ;) they are a very good team. Would win most other 1st round games if they could get moved east,north,south anywhere but the catdome. ;)
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2013, 09:49:29 AM
A little mea culpa on this. Somebody had brought up that Bethel had not yet played SJU so they don't get credit for that RRO win just yet. And if they do beat SJU, then SJU is getting bounced off the back of the West RR wagon anyway. That's my bad. One other thing that I admittedly overlooked is Washington being regionally ranked in the South. I keep forgetting that either 1) UWW played Washington and/or 2) WashU is ranked. I also missed the part where Whitewater had a better SOS than Bethel. So that's my bad. Whitewater is a perfectly good choice for #1 in the West.
As for your question...the answer is an emphatic NO. The committee doesn't have to treat all RRO wins the same. In fact, they aren't even limited to just reviewing RRO wins. The criteria uses the phrase "results against regionally ranked opponents" which opens up the opportunity for a committee to take into acount any result against RROs, win or loss. How the committee members want to weigh those results is up to the individual member I would guess.
Quote from: hazzben on November 14, 2013, 10:29:56 AM
^^ And to get way ahead of ourselves, the team that gets the 1 spot in the final West Ranking would be in a better position to host a semifinal game should they win their region. Not a lock, but I think the team that gets slotted 2 and then seeded 1 is probably the lowest 1 seed in the bracket.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2013, 10:19:23 AMQuote from: desertcat1 on November 14, 2013, 10:08:24 AM
So the lose of PLU to Linfield is a good thing? 29-0 They held linfield to only 7 points for 3qt's and then held them to a season low 29 points? If I read you right .. Good thing for PLU.. ;) they are a very good team. Would win most other 1st round games if they could get moved east,north,south anywhere but the catdome. ;)
I think the general feeling is that it is better to play against an RRO and lose than to not play against an RRO at all. So, strange as it may sound, PLU being 8-1 and 0-1 vs. RRO is probably better than being 8-1 and 0-0 vs. RRO. As long as you don't lose by 70 or something silly like that, which PLU didn't. I'm pretty confident that PLU is going to be fine on Sunday.
Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome.. Always a tough game for both teams. It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else? but the $$$ will rule again this year I think. :(
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 14, 2013, 10:46:46 AM
Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome.. Always a tough game for both teams. It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else? but the $$$ will rule again this year I think. :(
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2013, 11:18:09 AMQuote from: desertcat1 on November 14, 2013, 10:46:46 AM
Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome.. Always a tough game for both teams. It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else? but the $$$ will rule again this year I think. :(
I've got to dive into this later when I have more time to see if there is any reasonable way to split up the NWC teams. Right now it doesn't look like it, unfortunately. Redlands is orphaned and is going to have to go somewhere. Somebody is going to have to go to Texas. I think Millsaps can just barely drive to UMHB, but I doubt that will happen if you can easily fly Redlands to Texas. But I'll have to see the rest of the field and try to pair teams off to see if there are any odd teams out in the midwest/mid-Atlantic/northeast. Last year North Central was the odd team out and got paired up out West for their games. If there's another situation like that, then maybe you can bus Millsaps to Texas, fly Redlands to McMinnville, and let PLU go play anybody other than Linfield. Maybe.
Quote from: hazzben on November 14, 2013, 10:29:56 AM
^^ And to get way ahead of ourselves, the team that gets the 1 spot in the final West Ranking would be in a better position to host a semifinal game should they win their region. Not a lock, but I think the team that gets slotted 2 and then seeded 1 is probably the lowest 1 seed in the bracket.
Quote from: jknezek on November 14, 2013, 11:22:08 AMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2013, 11:18:09 AMQuote from: desertcat1 on November 14, 2013, 10:46:46 AM
Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome.. Always a tough game for both teams. It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else? but the $$$ will rule again this year I think. :(
I've got to dive into this later when I have more time to see if there is any reasonable way to split up the NWC teams. Right now it doesn't look like it, unfortunately. Redlands is orphaned and is going to have to go somewhere. Somebody is going to have to go to Texas. I think Millsaps can just barely drive to UMHB, but I doubt that will happen if you can easily fly Redlands to Texas. But I'll have to see the rest of the field and try to pair teams off to see if there are any odd teams out in the midwest/mid-Atlantic/northeast. Last year North Central was the odd team out and got paired up out West for their games. If there's another situation like that, then maybe you can bus Millsaps to Texas, fly Redlands to McMinnville, and let PLU go play anybody other than Linfield. Maybe.
Wally, don't forget about Maryville from the USASC. As a Pool A, they can only bus to Millsaps (490) or the ODAC champion (more likely the 2 loss ODAC champ would go to Maryville). Everyone else is 500+ miles for them (JHU at 543 is closest I believe). I think they would pretty much guarantee Redlands to UMHB, Maryville to Millsaps, winners to meet in Rd 2 with the committee thinking the home teams would then be a bus ride. If it works out for the favorites, you would get away with 1 flight and eliminate 3 orphans in a somewhat legitimate 4 team pod.
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 14, 2013, 10:42:50 AMQuote from: hazzben on November 14, 2013, 10:29:56 AM
^^ And to get way ahead of ourselves, the team that gets the 1 spot in the final West Ranking would be in a better position to host a semifinal game should they win their region. Not a lock, but I think the team that gets slotted 2 and then seeded 1 is probably the lowest 1 seed in the bracket.
Wouldn't mind a road trip to Bethel! And a win. ;) ;D
Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:34:57 PM
Any word if there's going to be some sort of selection show (ESPNU? ESPN3? ect..). As well as a time on sunday?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2013, 01:47:14 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:34:57 PM
Any word if there's going to be some sort of selection show (ESPNU? ESPN3? ect..). As well as a time on sunday?
Not on a network I'm fairly sure. The NCAA is streaming the selection show at 6pm ET Sunday from ncaa.com.
Quote from: wesleydad on November 14, 2013, 01:43:18 PMfixedQuote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX, Washington, Oregon and continually get screwed in the first round.
Agreed. Have gotten to see Hobart and Linfield in the last couple of years which has made for interesting match ups earlier than the quarters or semis. It is tough on the CA and TX teams.
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:46:33 PMFWIW--PLU is from Washington. :)Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.
Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 14, 2013, 01:52:08 PMThere was Cal Lu, they were from Phoenix; Pacific Lutheran, they were from Detroit. Texas Lutheran, well I don't remember where Tex come from.Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:46:33 PMFWIW--PLU is from Washington. :)Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.
Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran
Quote from: middlerelief on November 14, 2013, 02:11:57 PM
Pool Cs =. PAC Lutheran, UW-Oshkosh, IL-Wes, Wanash and MUC (or John Carrol, I think JC has a real chance though )
That's it -- that's the list
Notables that are probably good enough to be there be but just not enough slots: SJF, STU, Platteville, and Concordia
Team that wi be there buy shouldn't: Wesley
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 14, 2013, 01:52:08 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:46:33 PMFWIW--PLU is from Washington. :)Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.
Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran
Quote from: middlerelief on November 14, 2013, 02:11:57 PM
Team that wi be there buy shouldn't: Wesley
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 02:44:27 PMNO way--one has cheese....the other lakes, right?Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 14, 2013, 01:52:08 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:46:33 PMFWIW--PLU is from Washington. :)Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.
Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran
I'm sure you consider WI and MN the same out here. ;D
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 14, 2013, 03:12:18 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 02:44:27 PMNO way--one has cheese....the other lakes, right?Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 14, 2013, 01:52:08 PMQuote from: 02 Warhawk on November 14, 2013, 01:46:33 PMFWIW--PLU is from Washington. :)Quote from: HScoach on November 14, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking. The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago. Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too. I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year. As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.
More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.
Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran
I'm sure you consider WI and MN the same out here. ;D
Quote from: retagent on November 14, 2013, 04:24:58 PMRedlands has a very strong SOS.. I think they'd slide in over a three-loss SJU. I certainly hope so for PLU's sake.
Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?
Quote from: d-train on November 14, 2013, 04:35:24 PMWhile that would help PLU, I think the feeling seems to be that PLU is a pretty safe bet for Pool C. And it's not like seeding is going to matter as we all know where PLU is going to end up......Quote from: retagent on November 14, 2013, 04:24:58 PMRedlands has a very strong SOS.. I think they'd slide in over a three-loss SJU. I certainly hope so for PLU's sake.
Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?
Quote from: retagent on November 14, 2013, 04:24:58 PM
Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?
Quote from: USee on November 14, 2013, 06:22:30 PM
Ypsi,
That's just not going to happen. No way Wheaton gets in over a 2 loss St Thomas (I can't believe I even thought about that long enough to type it).
Some perspective on Albion's loss to Wheaton, Albion played without their starting QB, who was hurt the week before at the end of the game (concussion). Their backup was atrocious and they never threatened to score.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 15, 2013, 08:21:54 PMI like this one best--and then, since we (Linfield) get the cheapskate rematch again, they can reward us with the winner of St. Norbert v. Wartburg for round 2.... ;D
Conversely, if you wanted to ultra-regionalize it, you'd probably "ship" UMU east and UWW north and wind up with something that looks like this:
East:
W&J (8) @ Mount Union (1)
Rowan (5) @ Lebanon Valley (4)
Framingham State (7) @ Hobart (2)
Gallaudet (6) @ Ithaca (3)
South:
Redlands (8-ish...sorry) @ UMHB (1)
Maryville (5) @ Millsaps (3)
Salve Regina (7) @ Johns Hopkins (2)
Hampden Sydney (6) @ Wesley (4)
North:
Albion (8) @ UW-Whitewater (1)'
IWU (5) @ Witt (4)
Franklin (7) @ North Central (2)
Wabash (6) @ John Carroll (3)
West:
St. Scholastica (7/8) @ Bethel (1)
St. Norbert (6) @ Wartburg (5)
Concordia (Wis) (7/8) @ UW-Oshkosh (3)
PLU (4) @ Linfield (2)...boo to this
That is in no way a better way to put this thing together.
Quote from: hazzben on November 15, 2013, 09:49:57 PM
Yeah, version 1 all but gives UWW a semifinal berth. Their quad was noticeably weaker than the other 3.
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 15, 2013, 10:18:26 PM
My initial "bracket" here had the Wesley/LebVal/Salve/Hopkins pod lumped in the UMU region and the Franklin/Witt/Norbert/NCC pod with Whitewater. I switched it thinking that the UMU region looked really unbalanced. But then doesn't any region look unbalanced when Mount Union is at the top?
The beauty of building 4-team pods around the top 8 teams is that you can pretty much mix and match them any way you want.
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 15, 2013, 10:06:57 PMQuote from: hazzben on November 15, 2013, 09:49:57 PM
Yeah, version 1 all but gives UWW a semifinal berth. Their quad was noticeably weaker than the other 3.
Who was the big challenge to UMHB in version 1?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 15, 2013, 08:04:29 PM
So this was fun...I went ahead and made a mock bracket with the 32 teams that I selected on Wednesday. Here's how I did it. First, I ranked the teams 1-32 (full disclosure- I didn't scrub every schedule for common opponents so there may be something glaring that I missed and have a team way out of whack but I went through this fairly quickly...I did use the regional rankings as a guide here, so hopefully that takes care of most of that for me). Grabbed the top four seeds based on the criteria. They are:
1- Mount Union (not as big of an SOS as Bethel or UWW, but this is where previous tournament performance comes into play)
2- UWW
3- Bethel
4- UMHB
Then I grabbed the next four teams:
North Central, Linfield, Hobart, Johns Hopkins.
Keeping geography in mind, I tried to match these 8 teams up with another team in the bottom 8 of my list. Then I took the teams ranked 9-16 and 17-24 and paired them off (I'm trying to keep some semblance of competitve balance here). So I got 16 games. I paired them in groups of two games (four teams) that helped avoid egregious travel in the second round and this is what I've got.
Starting in the upper left corner of your mind's bracket:
Albion @ Mount Union
Gallaudet @ Rowan
Franklin @ Wittenberg
St. Norbert @ North Central
Bottom half, left side:
Redlands @ UMHB (sorry for the rematch...only way to do this with one flight)
Maryville @ Millsaps
Framingham State @ Ithaca
W&J @ Hobart
Upper half, right side:
Concordia (Wis) @ UW-Whitewater
Wartburg @ IWU
Wesley @ Lebanon Valley
Salve Regina @ Johns Hopkins
Lower half, right side:
St. Scholastica @ Bethel
Wabash @ UW-Oshkosh
Hampden Sydney @ John Carroll (499 miles! this one might not be ok)
PLU @ Linfield (sorry again)
So yeah, Hampden Sydney/John Carroll might have to go to Oregon, but somebody has to go and you can pretty much pick any game you want to pair up with PLU/Linfield. There are about a zillion ways to put this together. Just thought I'd share what I came up going through it quickly.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 06:06:09 PM
Ok, scores are in, here's going to be the Pool C Bids!
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific
Wabash
Ill-Wesleyan
That leaves 3 Saints on the outside looking in: a 9-1 Thomas More (W&J gets AQ I believe) and 2 solid 8-2 teams in St. Thomas and St. John Fisher
I do not agree with the concept that the highest non-AQ team in the "Regionally Rankings" gets a nod. I was under the impression that "regionalizing" the brackets came to an end a few years ago. Instead of an East, West, North South they have just given the top seed to the highest ranked teams period.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 06:06:09 PM
Ok, scores are in, here's going to be the Pool C Bids!
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific
Wabash
Ill-Wesleyan
That leaves 3 Saints on the outside looking in: a 9-1 Thomas More (W&J gets AQ I believe) and 2 solid 8-2 teams in St. Thomas and St. John Fisher
I do not agree with the concept that the highest non-AQ team in the "Regionally Rankings" gets a nod. I was under the impression that "regionalizing" the brackets came to an end a few years ago. Instead of an East, West, North South they have just given the top seed to the highest ranked teams period.
Quote from: TitanPride on November 16, 2013, 06:11:02 PMQuote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 06:06:09 PM
Ok, scores are in, here's going to be the Pool C Bids!
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific
Wabash
Ill-Wesleyan
That leaves 3 Saints on the outside looking in: a 9-1 Thomas More (W&J gets AQ I believe) and 2 solid 8-2 teams in St. Thomas and St. John Fisher
I do not agree with the concept that the highest non-AQ team in the "Regionally Rankings" gets a nod. I was under the impression that "regionalizing" the brackets came to an end a few years ago. Instead of an East, West, North South they have just given the top seed to the highest ranked teams period.
Perhaps he means Pac Lutheran?
Quote from: art76 on November 16, 2013, 06:30:24 PM
Bethel now leads UW Whitewater as unbeaten teams by 39 teams in the SOS Rankings. All the scores are not in yet so there may be some more motion, but I think Bethel will have the best in the country this year.
Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 06:24:50 PM
The only one I can see if SJF, since their SOS is miles above any one else's that will be on the board with them. The only rankings that matter are regional rankings, too, so it will be interesting to see if the crash and burn of many of the East's RR teams help SJF at all.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 06:39:12 PMI'm curious as to why?Quote from: art76 on November 16, 2013, 06:30:24 PM
Bethel now leads UW Whitewater as unbeaten teams by 39 teams in the SOS Rankings. All the scores are not in yet so there may be some more motion, but I think Bethel will have the best in the country this year.
I don't buy MHB's ranking year in and year out. Should be great tourney this year, MUC played three ranked teams, all of them gave them a pretty strong challenge compared to prior years.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 06:44:55 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 06:24:50 PM
The only one I can see if SJF, since their SOS is miles above any one else's that will be on the board with them. The only rankings that matter are regional rankings, too, so it will be interesting to see if the crash and burn of many of the East's RR teams help SJF at all.
where can I see strength of schedule?
Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 06:46:33 PM
...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.
Quote from: HScoach on November 16, 2013, 06:54:59 PMAn argument could be made that the West has 3 teams that are #1 worthy (when comparing them to MHB anyway).Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 06:46:33 PM
...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.
I agree 100%. The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's. My prediction is as follows:
1. Whitewater
2. Mount
3. Bethel
4. MHB
I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall. Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season. They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.
What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind. Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds. Not this season.
Quote from: HScoach on November 16, 2013, 06:54:59 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 06:46:33 PM
...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.
I agree 100%. The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's. My prediction is as follows:
1. Whitewater
2. Mount
3. Bethel
4. MHB
I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall. Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season. They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.
What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind. Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds. Not this season.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 07:19:26 PMYou say that as if they scheduled doormats. They played their conference schedule, and their non conference schedule was set 2 years ago the year after Kean, Wesley and Trinity were all playoff teams. Redlands was a fill in game because TLU bailed on the conference. not much you can do if they turn out to be doormats at that point.Quote from: HScoach on November 16, 2013, 06:54:59 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 06:46:33 PM
...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.
I agree 100%. The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's. My prediction is as follows:
1. Whitewater
2. Mount
3. Bethel
4. MHB
I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall. Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season. They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.
What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind. Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds. Not this season.
Linfield gets a top seed over MHB in my opine. MHB season was filled with door mats except 1 game I think.
Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 07:36:28 PM
Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 07:50:52 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 07:36:28 PM
Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?
I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful. Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.
The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB, they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference. To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 07:50:52 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 07:36:28 PM
Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?
I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful. Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.
The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB, they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference. To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.
Quote from: wesleydad on November 16, 2013, 08:20:27 PMQuote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 07:50:52 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 07:36:28 PM
Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?
I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful. Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.
The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB, they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference. To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.
Having seen both UMHB and the E8 winner, you are insulting UMHB to mention them in the same sentence. Ithaca lost to a very average Cortland St team today. They would get steamrolled by UMHB If you are unsure of how good UMHB is, just ask Mount from last year or anyone who plays them in the playoffs. They are a top notch program and will be a tough out for anyone who plays them this year.
Quote from: middlerelief on November 16, 2013, 07:50:52 PMI'm pretty sure UMHB would roll the E8 every year too.Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 07:36:28 PM
Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?
I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful. Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.
The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB, they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference. To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.
League | Team |
ASC | UMHB |
CC | Johns Hopkins |
CCIW | North Central |
ECFC | Gallaudet |
E8 | Itahca |
HCAC | Franklin |
IIAC | Wartburg |
LL | Hobart |
MAC | Lebanon Valley |
MIAC | Bethel |
MWC | St. Norbert |
MIAA | Albion |
NACC | Concordia (Wis.) |
NCAC | Wittenberg |
NEFC | Endicott |
NJAC | Rowan |
NWC | Linfield |
OAC | Mount Union |
ODAC | Hampden-Sydney |
PAC | Washington & Jefferson |
SCIAC | Redlands |
UMAC | St. Scholastica |
USAC | Maryville |
WIAC | UW-Whitewater |
Quote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 10:35:36 PM
So they pick Wash U. over Millsaps due to common opponents, and SJF over Wabash due to SOS. Hmmm...
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 16, 2013, 10:38:45 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 16, 2013, 10:35:36 PM
So they pick Wash U. over Millsaps due to common opponents, and SJF over Wabash due to SOS. Hmmm...
And RRO wins. Alfred ought not be ranked, but they probably will be. That move was beautifully hedged last week.
Rank Wooster. It's the right thing to do.
Quote from: smedindy on November 17, 2013, 11:01:54 AM
Albion is 8-2 and won the MIAA, though, so they'll probably get the last spot.
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 16, 2013, 11:11:45 PM
I ended up using the teams Wally had in trying to project a bracket... I'm not perfectly satisfied with it, but it's something that everyone can contemplate... I could have done it in just 1 flight, but I didn't really like what that forced so I went with 2 flights in the first round which I think is a reasonable decision.I haven't ranked the #1 seeds or anything, just tried to put some 4 team pods together and keep teams reasonably close to where I think they should be seeded
1) Mount Union 1) UW-Whitewater
8) Albion 8) Concordia (WI)
4) Ithaca 4) Illinois Wesleyan
5) Framingham St 5) Wabash
3) Rowan 3) Wittenberg
6) Lebanon Valley 6) Maryville
2) Hobart 2) North Central
7) Endicott 7) Franklin
1) Bethel 1) Mary Hardin-Baylor
8) St. Scholastica 5) Millsaps
4) UW-Plattsburg 4) Wesley
5) Wartburg 6) Hampden-Sydney
3) Pacific Lutheran 3) John Carroll
6) Redlands 7) Wash & Jeff
2) Linfield 2) Johns Hopkins
7) St Norbert 8) Gallaudet
Maryville ends up at Witt because that's the only team worthy of hosting within 500 miles. By sending Redlands to Pac Lutheran you can bring one of the weaker teams out west to Linfield and avoid a first round rematch.
Quote from: USee on November 17, 2013, 11:23:06 AMQuote from: smedindy on November 17, 2013, 11:01:54 AM
Albion is 8-2 and won the MIAA, though, so they'll probably get the last spot.
True, but Wally has pointed out that the East RAC has been very intentional last year(STJ made it as only 2 loss team) and this year, to position their pool C candidates for success. If the North RAC were to take that kind of action they would absolutely consider ranking Wooster to help Wabash as ranking Albion, who gets in via AQ, does nothing for anyone except Wheaton, who is decidedly behind Wabash in the North regionals.
You have to fight fire with fire boys and its time for the North Region to come together and kick some D3 butt.
Quote from: Upstate on November 17, 2013, 12:38:23 PMQuote from: USee on November 17, 2013, 11:23:06 AMQuote from: smedindy on November 17, 2013, 11:01:54 AM
Albion is 8-2 and won the MIAA, though, so they'll probably get the last spot.
True, but Wally has pointed out that the East RAC has been very intentional last year(STJ made it as only 2 loss team) and this year, to position their pool C candidates for success. If the North RAC were to take that kind of action they would absolutely consider ranking Wooster to help Wabash as ranking Albion, who gets in via AQ, does nothing for anyone except Wheaton, who is decidedly behind Wabash in the North regionals.
You have to fight fire with fire boys and its time for the North Region to come together and kick some D3 butt.
So you're saying Fisher didn't belong in the NCAA's when they made it as a 2 loss team?
Even though they went on the road and knocked off the 10-0 and 13th ranked Johns Hopkins and 11-0, 11th ranked Delaware Valley you're still bitching about their inclusion?
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 19, 2013, 12:02:47 PM
"With five at large Pool C teams in the country, you're not gonna get three from one region." - Duey Naatz
We'll just go ahead and leave this here for future reference. Turns out not all of the criteria are spelled out in the handbook.
Quote from: smedindy on November 14, 2013, 11:55:29 AM
This is where I'm torn.
I really don't like the whining about, "Well, we have to play X and Y early and..." since you had to beat X and Y anyway to win the title. Admittedly, it's worse in the NCAA D-1 hoops land, where the commentators who slurp the BCS conferences complain about tough matchups for the 4th place teams in the Big 12. But part of me doesn't like the fact that X has to play Y so early. Play early, play late - you still have to beat them.
HOWEVER...there really shouldn't be any rematches in the first week. And the NCAA should actually follow a reasonable facsimile of seeding so you don't have the third and fourth best team in the region playing in week one just because they're close and no one else can get there without a flight.
Instead of spending time disqualifying cross country runners for participating in a fun run for charity, the NCAA should cough up some dough to fix the travel for the best football tournament in the land!
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2013, 12:05:23 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 19, 2013, 12:02:47 PM
"With five at large Pool C teams in the country, you're not gonna get three from one region." - Duey Naatz
We'll just go ahead and leave this here for future reference. Turns out not all of the criteria are spelled out in the handbook.
We're already piling on this on the NCAC board, but it's probably more relevant here. This is bad. All of the posters on the NCAC board are pretty unanimous, regardless of affiliation or rooting interest, that this absolutely should not be part of the thought process. It just shouldn't. The four teams on the board at a given time should be considered as though it's a new discussion each time.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 19, 2013, 01:48:15 PMI'd agree with Duey if he's referring to the lack of objective data available to compare teams from different regions because very few teams play many non-conference games outside of their region. The St. John Fisher SOS wouldn't be nearly as high if more East teams played teams from the West and the North. This is a national tournament selecting at-large bids by using regional criteria.Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2013, 12:05:23 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 19, 2013, 12:02:47 PM
"With five at large Pool C teams in the country, you're not gonna get three from one region." - Duey Naatz
We'll just go ahead and leave this here for future reference. Turns out not all of the criteria are spelled out in the handbook.
We're already piling on this on the NCAC board, but it's probably more relevant here. This is bad. All of the posters on the NCAC board are pretty unanimous, regardless of affiliation or rooting interest, that this absolutely should not be part of the thought process. It just shouldn't. The four teams on the board at a given time should be considered as though it's a new discussion each time.
To be fair, don't you think Duey could be saying "it's unrealistic to expect three teams to get in when there's only five to go around" and not "we did not/would not consider a third team from one region?"
Obviously I would have a problem if the latter were true. The at-large process is the at-large process, and five West region teams are the five next-best teams by criteria, they should be who gets in.
Sometimes I think though we listen to the committee chair, not always a polished public speaker, and wait to pick out a moment where they misspeak in 30-40 minutes of answering questions.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 19, 2013, 01:48:15 PMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2013, 12:05:23 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 19, 2013, 12:02:47 PM
"With five at large Pool C teams in the country, you're not gonna get three from one region." - Duey Naatz
We'll just go ahead and leave this here for future reference. Turns out not all of the criteria are spelled out in the handbook.
We're already piling on this on the NCAC board, but it's probably more relevant here. This is bad. All of the posters on the NCAC board are pretty unanimous, regardless of affiliation or rooting interest, that this absolutely should not be part of the thought process. It just shouldn't. The four teams on the board at a given time should be considered as though it's a new discussion each time.
To be fair, don't you think Duey could be saying "it's unrealistic to expect three teams to get in when there's only five to go around" and not "we did not/would not consider a third team from one region?"
Obviously I would have a problem if the latter were true. The at-large process is the at-large process, and five West region teams are the five next-best teams by criteria, they should be who gets in.
Sometimes I think though we listen to the committee chair, not always a polished public speaker, and wait to pick out a moment where they misspeak in 30-40 minutes of answering questions.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 19, 2013, 01:48:15 PMQuote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2013, 12:05:23 PMQuote from: wally_wabash on November 19, 2013, 12:02:47 PM
"With five at large Pool C teams in the country, you're not gonna get three from one region." - Duey Naatz
We'll just go ahead and leave this here for future reference. Turns out not all of the criteria are spelled out in the handbook.
We're already piling on this on the NCAC board, but it's probably more relevant here. This is bad. All of the posters on the NCAC board are pretty unanimous, regardless of affiliation or rooting interest, that this absolutely should not be part of the thought process. It just shouldn't. The four teams on the board at a given time should be considered as though it's a new discussion each time.
To be fair, don't you think Duey could be saying "it's unrealistic to expect three teams to get in when there's only five to go around" and not "we did not/would not consider a third team from one region?"
Obviously I would have a problem if the latter were true. The at-large process is the at-large process, and five West region teams are the five next-best teams by criteria, they should be who gets in.
Sometimes I think though we listen to the committee chair, not always a polished public speaker, and wait to pick out a moment where they misspeak in 30-40 minutes of answering questions.
Quote from: K-Mack on November 19, 2013, 01:43:38 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 14, 2013, 11:55:29 AM
This is where I'm torn.
I really don't like the whining about, "Well, we have to play X and Y early and..." since you had to beat X and Y anyway to win the title. Admittedly, it's worse in the NCAA D-1 hoops land, where the commentators who slurp the BCS conferences complain about tough matchups for the 4th place teams in the Big 12. But part of me doesn't like the fact that X has to play Y so early. Play early, play late - you still have to beat them.
HOWEVER...there really shouldn't be any rematches in the first week. And the NCAA should actually follow a reasonable facsimile of seeding so you don't have the third and fourth best team in the region playing in week one just because they're close and no one else can get there without a flight.
Instead of spending time disqualifying cross country runners for participating in a fun run for charity, the NCAA should cough up some dough to fix the travel for the best football tournament in the land!
I'm with you right up until the very end. I'm never a big fan of people saying "well, xxx has enough money and should just pay for it." That's like a homeless guy coming up to you and saying "you look like you're pretty well off, you should just give me $100."
Analogy aside, if the money source were identified, I would get behind the idea.
Considering that D-III gate probably wouldn't pay for all the travel in the D-III tournament, I'm a little hesitant to complain about the focus on money.
That said, PLU (in my top 8) at Linfield (in my top 3) in Round 1 will always stink.
Quote from: smedindy on November 19, 2013, 04:22:08 PM
Heck, he could have even said, "It's going to be hard for a region to have three out of five at large teams in a given year," and be fine by me. Because normally, it is.
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 20, 2013, 10:48:43 AMI just wanted to emphasize Ron's point. :)
And we have to pray that the upper echelons of D1 football and D1 basketball don't decide to take their ball and go form their own exclusive non-NCAA org so they can keep ALL of the money generated by those sports.
Quote from: wabndy on November 21, 2013, 04:10:40 PM
Did I see a stat somewhere that all of Division III amounted to something like 6% of the NCAA's total budget?
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 21, 2013, 09:27:29 PM
The WORST non-transparency is the secret final regional rankings. Since they did away with 'once ranked, always ranked', the secret final RRs are the ONLY ones that matter. It is therefore impossible to know one of the key criteria, results vs. RROs. (We can speculate, and probably come pretty close, but we can't KNOW.) This alone makes the whole process open to conspiracy theorists!
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 21, 2013, 09:27:29 PM
The WORST non-transparency is the secret final regional rankings. Since they did away with 'once ranked, always ranked', the secret final RRs are the ONLY ones that matter. It is therefore impossible to know one of the key criteria, results vs. RROs. (We can speculate, and probably come pretty close, but we can't KNOW.) This alone makes the whole process open to conspiracy theorists!
Quote from: smedindy on November 19, 2013, 04:25:44 PMQuote from: K-Mack on November 19, 2013, 01:43:38 PMQuote from: smedindy on November 14, 2013, 11:55:29 AM
This is where I'm torn.
I really don't like the whining about, "Well, we have to play X and Y early and..." since you had to beat X and Y anyway to win the title. Admittedly, it's worse in the NCAA D-1 hoops land, where the commentators who slurp the BCS conferences complain about tough matchups for the 4th place teams in the Big 12. But part of me doesn't like the fact that X has to play Y so early. Play early, play late - you still have to beat them.
HOWEVER...there really shouldn't be any rematches in the first week. And the NCAA should actually follow a reasonable facsimile of seeding so you don't have the third and fourth best team in the region playing in week one just because they're close and no one else can get there without a flight.
Instead of spending time disqualifying cross country runners for participating in a fun run for charity, the NCAA should cough up some dough to fix the travel for the best football tournament in the land!
I'm with you right up until the very end. I'm never a big fan of people saying "well, xxx has enough money and should just pay for it." That's like a homeless guy coming up to you and saying "you look like you're pretty well off, you should just give me $100."
Analogy aside, if the money source were identified, I would get behind the idea.
Considering that D-III gate probably wouldn't pay for all the travel in the D-III tournament, I'm a little hesitant to complain about the focus on money.
That said, PLU (in my top 8) at Linfield (in my top 3) in Round 1 will always stink.
As much as we'd like to have each are self-sufficient in a large organization such as the NCAA, or even at College or University, many times they are not, and funds get moved from one area to another.
I think other sports would also benefit for a tournament structure that eliminates first round re-matches and a better bracket. Sure, you gotta beat em all to win it, but knock heads against someone else at first.
Quote from: Boxer7806 on November 21, 2013, 09:52:29 PMQuote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 21, 2013, 09:27:29 PM
The WORST non-transparency is the secret final regional rankings. Since they did away with 'once ranked, always ranked', the secret final RRs are the ONLY ones that matter. It is therefore impossible to know one of the key criteria, results vs. RROs. (We can speculate, and probably come pretty close, but we can't KNOW.) This alone makes the whole process open to conspiracy theorists!
100% True. +k
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 24, 2013, 08:05:53 AMGood assessment. +1!
Soooo, Jonny, how did our Pool C contestants do?
UW-Platteville 54, Concordia 20: UWP was never really in question as a slam-dunk Pool C choice, but this game doesn't really tell us much as it came against one of the lesser Pool A entrants. Nonetheless, they won handily. Well done UWP.
Linfield 42, Pacific Lutheran 21: The one team in the field that I can feel "bad" for, as much as I can feel "bad" for any playoff team, is PLU just because we don't get to see how they would have done against a few other teams. Nonetheless, I think we all would agree that PLU was a deserving Pool C choice and it's their bad fortune to get stuck with a Linfield rematch.
Wartburg 41, Illinois Wesleyan 7: the "WTF happened here?" award goes to Illinois Wesleyan! Is Wartburg a fine team? Of course! They played Bethel quite respectably in their OOC loss and the only in-conference blemish came against a decent Coe squad that made last year's playoffs and defeated 2013 playoff team WashU as well as Wartburg. But Illinois Wesleyan was, on paper, one of the strongest Pool C teams if not THE strongest, and I really expected them to win this one. Perhaps I should heed the comments from the CCIW folks that the conference as a whole is a notch down from its peak strength.
St. John Fisher 25, John Carroll 16: annnnnd two of our Pool C entrants played one another! (I didn't even really notice this quirk until now, but that seems a bit awkward to me; I know we're already discussing the vagaries of bracketology and the fact that we would prefer to avoid first-round rematches, but I also wonder if perhaps we should in theory match all of the Pool C selections against Pool A teams in the first round? Something doesn't strike me as quite right that AQ teams have to play against/eliminate one another while one at-large team is guaranteed to get into the sweet 16; this might be an unpopular opinion among those who argue that the Pool C teams are stronger than many of the Pool A teams in the field, but that's fine, even that is an argument to split the five Pool C teams and distribute them against Pool A's as much as possible). This was also a surprising result to me. The E8 always handles itself well in the playoffs but I had the feeling that the conference's top teams were not quite as good as in years past and that JCU was a legit title contender.
Two of the five Pool C teams advance, although one was eliminated by another. IWU is definitely the biggest disappointment in Pool C, IMO, and PLU did about what could be expected. UWP vs. North Central next week might be one of the best second-round games!
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 24, 2013, 08:05:53 AM
Soooo, Jonny, how did our Pool C contestants do?
UW-Platteville 54, Concordia 20: UWP was never really in question as a slam-dunk Pool C choice, but this game doesn't really tell us much as it came against one of the lesser Pool A entrants. Nonetheless, they won handily. Well done UWP.
Linfield 42, Pacific Lutheran 21: The one team in the field that I can feel "bad" for, as much as I can feel "bad" for any playoff team, is PLU just because we don't get to see how they would have done against a few other teams. Nonetheless, I think we all would agree that PLU was a deserving Pool C choice and it's their bad fortune to get stuck with a Linfield rematch.
Wartburg 41, Illinois Wesleyan 7: the "WTF happened here?" award goes to Illinois Wesleyan! Is Wartburg a fine team? Of course! They played Bethel quite respectably in their OOC loss and the only in-conference blemish came against a decent Coe squad that made last year's playoffs and defeated 2013 playoff team WashU as well as Wartburg. But Illinois Wesleyan was, on paper, one of the strongest Pool C teams if not THE strongest, and I really expected them to win this one. Perhaps I should heed the comments from the CCIW folks that the conference as a whole is a notch down from its peak strength.
St. John Fisher 25, John Carroll 16: annnnnd two of our Pool C entrants played one another! (I didn't even really notice this quirk until now, but that seems a bit awkward to me; I know we're already discussing the vagaries of bracketology and the fact that we would prefer to avoid first-round rematches, but I also wonder if perhaps we should in theory match all of the Pool C selections against Pool A teams in the first round? Something doesn't strike me as quite right that AQ teams have to play against/eliminate one another while one at-large team is guaranteed to get into the sweet 16; this might be an unpopular opinion among those who argue that the Pool C teams are stronger than many of the Pool A teams in the field, but that's fine, even that is an argument to split the five Pool C teams and distribute them against Pool A's as much as possible). This was also a surprising result to me. The E8 always handles itself well in the playoffs but I had the feeling that the conference's top teams were not quite as good as in years past and that JCU was a legit title contender.
Two of the five Pool C teams advance, although one was eliminated by another. IWU is definitely the biggest disappointment in Pool C, IMO, and PLU did about what could be expected. UWP vs. North Central next week might be one of the best second-round games!
QuoteThey will make a nice archive for our review when we want to compare Pool C's in the future, like when a columnist has to write a year-in-review thingamabob.