Big Dance

Started by Falconer, November 11, 2019, 02:34:57 PM

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LetteroftheLaw

My bracket buster is Rowan. They have a very favorable first round matchup before facing off with UMW. I think they can beat UMW as they proved in September they can play with top competition (Chicago, North Park, Montclair St). I also have seen UMW play and they play a very nice brand of possession soccer with a strong central midfield but they lack the dominate goal scorer up top which I think could lead to an unexpectedly early exit. 11 of their games have been decided by one goal or have been draws so they aren't dominating teams by any means.

blue_jays

Quote from: Mr.Right on November 14, 2019, 05:38:46 PM
I have seen WPI play twice this season. D4Pace is correct they will be no pushover. They will be parking the bus BUT they have more all around talent than they have in the past. This allows them to be effective on the counter and watch for the Frosh Valagussa in the middle of the park. WPI is your typical "cold weather team". They have enough size to deal with Tufts and are quite organized in the back. They also play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and are becoming more and more of a physical team each year under this Head Coach. They are 12-3-4 but those 3 Losses were all 1-0 losses in tight games. They are battle tested and have played a challenging schedule and will give Tufts a fight.


Question:  WHERE ARE ALL THE NIGHT GAMES?????

The NCAA is making a conscious decision to avoid night games as much as possible. Mid-November at night can be significantly worse than mid-November during the day.

Hopkins92

Absolutely gorgeous day here in the DMV for the Catholic hosted pod.

EastCoastSoccer

Round of 32:
Amherst, Ithaca, Mary Washington, Rowan, RPI, Middlebury, Messiah, Babson
John Carroll, Kalamazoo, CMS, Trinity, Franklin & Marshall, Montclair St, Kenyon, Rochester
Johns Hopkins, Conn College, Christopher Newport, Roanoke, Tufts, WPI, Wash & Lee, Oglethorpe
Chicago, Ohio Wesleyan, Luther, Wis. Superior, Calvin, Ohio Northern, North Park, Gust. Adolphus

Sweet 16:
Amherst, Rowan, Middlebury, Messiah
John Carroll, Trinity, Franklin & Marshall, Rochester
Johns Hopkins, Christopher Newport, Tufts, Washington & Lee
Chicago, Luther, Calvin, Gust. Adolphus

Elite 8:
Amherst, Messiah
John Carroll, Franklin & Marshall
Johns Hopkins, Tufts
Chicago, Calvin

Final Four:
Amherst, Franklin & Marshall, Johns Hopkins, Chicago

Finals:
Amherst, Chicago

Champion:
Chicago

PaulNewman

Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 14, 2019, 10:29:25 PM
My bracket buster is Rowan. They have a very favorable first round matchup before facing off with UMW. I think they can beat UMW as they proved in September they can play with top competition (Chicago, North Park, Montclair St). I also have seen UMW play and they play a very nice brand of possession soccer with a strong central midfield but they lack the dominate goal scorer up top which I think could lead to an unexpectedly early exit. 11 of their games have been decided by one goal or have been draws so they aren’t dominating teams by any means.

IMO a bracket buster is a team that beats a big-time team in the 1st or 2nd round and/or one that gets beyond the Sweet 16.  Rowan is a big-time team, and I think most would call a potential MW versus Rowan tilt pretty much a toss-up.  In any case, the winner (if it happens) will advance for the privilege of facing Amherst.  Now, if either takes out Amherst then I would call Rowan or MW a bracket buster.  Maybe 'sleeper' pick is more what you meant, and ironically MW is one of my sleeper picks as well as W&L.

LetteroftheLaw

Quote from: YoungBuck on November 13, 2019, 02:56:12 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 13, 2019, 01:28:28 PM

Interesting you list Roanoke as a bracket buster when they were twice outplayed by W&L who is overrated. I don't dispute W&L, should they get there, will have a real tough draw against Tufts. But I don't see Roanoke being better. Box score on the W&L/Roanoke tie was 24(7) 11(3) shots in favor of W&L. Corners 10 to 7. Frankly, W&L was very unlucky not to win that game. As for the ODAC tournament semifinal, W&L won 2-1. 11(4) 6(4) shots in favor for W&L 3-3 corners in a much more even game on a neutral site field.

I don't see either going past the round of 16, but I'd put my money on W&L getting there over Roanoke. We will see, however.

For me, a bracket buster is inherently an outsider team (outside the top 16) with a chance to make it further than you might think, due to matchups, bracket draw, etc.  I think that Roanoke has a pretty winnable pod and will make it further than other people are predicting.  Maybe Cinderella would be a good way to describe them (although I don't want to risk offending anyone with a gender normative description... ;)).

As for W&L, as I've said before, I think that losses by multiple goals are pretty incriminating in D3 soccer.  So by my count, W&L falls in the 12-18 range, and as such, might be one of the bottom teams remaining when we get to the Sweet 16.  I definitely have W&L ranked ahead of Roanoke, but they're too good to be included as a "Bracket Buster".  Sorry, I had to cut my rankings off somewhere, and they just missed the cut.

I was using YoungBucks definition when claiming Rowan was a "bracket buster." I agree they are probably more of a sleeper pick because no one is talking about them and a lot of attention has been given to UMW. I'm not so sure an 11 win team getting an at large bid is a "big time team" however.

PaulNewman

Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 15, 2019, 11:28:06 AM
Quote from: YoungBuck on November 13, 2019, 02:56:12 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 13, 2019, 01:28:28 PM

Interesting you list Roanoke as a bracket buster when they were twice outplayed by W&L who is overrated. I don't dispute W&L, should they get there, will have a real tough draw against Tufts. But I don't see Roanoke being better. Box score on the W&L/Roanoke tie was 24(7) 11(3) shots in favor of W&L. Corners 10 to 7. Frankly, W&L was very unlucky not to win that game. As for the ODAC tournament semifinal, W&L won 2-1. 11(4) 6(4) shots in favor for W&L 3-3 corners in a much more even game on a neutral site field.

I don't see either going past the round of 16, but I'd put my money on W&L getting there over Roanoke. We will see, however.

For me, a bracket buster is inherently an outsider team (outside the top 16) with a chance to make it further than you might think, due to matchups, bracket draw, etc.  I think that Roanoke has a pretty winnable pod and will make it further than other people are predicting.  Maybe Cinderella would be a good way to describe them (although I don't want to risk offending anyone with a gender normative description... ;)).

As for W&L, as I've said before, I think that losses by multiple goals are pretty incriminating in D3 soccer.  So by my count, W&L falls in the 12-18 range, and as such, might be one of the bottom teams remaining when we get to the Sweet 16.  I definitely have W&L ranked ahead of Roanoke, but they're too good to be included as a "Bracket Buster".  Sorry, I had to cut my rankings off somewhere, and they just missed the cut.

I was using YoungBucks definition when claiming Rowan was a "bracket buster." I agree they are probably more of a sleeper pick because no one is talking about them and a lot of attention has been given to UMW. I'm not so sure an 11 win team getting an at large bid is a "big time team" however.

I follow you, but Roanoke isn't a team that anyone (I don't think anyone here) projected as even making the tournament.  And while Rowan may or may not be a big-time team right now they are a big-time program and they have played other big-time programs this year.  Just a couple of years ago I believe they were one of the top 2-3 picks to win the national title but were ousted at home by Tufts in a tight 1-0 affair.  Anyway, you are forecasting Rowan to win only one more game than you might expect, or are you also forecasting that they will knock Amherst out, or that MW would knock out Amherst if not beaten by Rowan?

blooter442

Quote from: blue_jays on November 14, 2019, 10:41:24 PM
The NCAA is making a conscious decision to avoid night games as much as possible. Mid-November at night can be significantly worse than mid-November during the day.

Really? If so, why didn't they do this in years past?

I'm not trying to be antagonistic — I just don't get why, if this is a conscious decision, it allegedly wasn't made (or at least not explicitly) in previous years given that cold mid-November weather is not new. Perhaps the recent cold snap would have something to do with it?

LetteroftheLaw

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 15, 2019, 11:37:19 AM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 15, 2019, 11:28:06 AM
Quote from: YoungBuck on November 13, 2019, 02:56:12 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 13, 2019, 01:28:28 PM

Interesting you list Roanoke as a bracket buster when they were twice outplayed by W&L who is overrated. I don't dispute W&L, should they get there, will have a real tough draw against Tufts. But I don't see Roanoke being better. Box score on the W&L/Roanoke tie was 24(7) 11(3) shots in favor of W&L. Corners 10 to 7. Frankly, W&L was very unlucky not to win that game. As for the ODAC tournament semifinal, W&L won 2-1. 11(4) 6(4) shots in favor for W&L 3-3 corners in a much more even game on a neutral site field.

I don't see either going past the round of 16, but I'd put my money on W&L getting there over Roanoke. We will see, however.

For me, a bracket buster is inherently an outsider team (outside the top 16) with a chance to make it further than you might think, due to matchups, bracket draw, etc.  I think that Roanoke has a pretty winnable pod and will make it further than other people are predicting.  Maybe Cinderella would be a good way to describe them (although I don't want to risk offending anyone with a gender normative description... ;)).

As for W&L, as I've said before, I think that losses by multiple goals are pretty incriminating in D3 soccer.  So by my count, W&L falls in the 12-18 range, and as such, might be one of the bottom teams remaining when we get to the Sweet 16.  I definitely have W&L ranked ahead of Roanoke, but they're too good to be included as a "Bracket Buster".  Sorry, I had to cut my rankings off somewhere, and they just missed the cut.

I was using YoungBucks definition when claiming Rowan was a "bracket buster." I agree they are probably more of a sleeper pick because no one is talking about them and a lot of attention has been given to UMW. I'm not so sure an 11 win team getting an at large bid is a "big time team" however.

I follow you, but Roanoke isn't a team that anyone (I don't think anyone here) projected as even making the tournament.  And while Rowan may or may not be a big-time team right now they are a big-time program and they have played other big-time programs this year.  Just a couple of years ago I believe they were one of the top 2-3 picks to win the national title but were ousted at home by Tufts in a tight 1-0 affair.  Anyway, you are forecasting Rowan to win only one more game than you might expect, or are you also forecasting that they will knock Amherst out, or that MW would knock out Amherst if not beaten by Rowan?

Understood, I was just going off of this year. This year I personally am more impressed with Nokes season than Rowan's, I might be alone thinking that. Seems like everyone is picking a guaranteed UMW-Amherst sweet sixteen matchup and I'm picking Rowan-Amherst. I'll stop there with my long shot predictions though and think Amherst will advance.

lastguyoffthebench

Round of 32:
Amherst, Ithaca, Mary Washington, Rowan, RPI, Middlebury, Messiah, Oneonta St
John Carroll, Centre, CMS, Trinity, Franklin & Marshall, Hobart, Kenyon, Rochester
Johns Hopkins, Conn College, Christopher Newport, Swat, Tufts, WPI, Wash & Lee, Oglethorpe
Chicago, Hope, Luther, Central, Calvin, St. Norbert, North Park, GAC

Sweet 16:
Amherst, UMW, Middlebury, Messiah
John Carroll, CMS, Franklin & Marshall, Rochester
Conn College, Christopher Newport, Tufts, Washington & Lee
Chicago, Luther, Calvin, GAC

Elite 8:
UMW, Messiah
John Carroll, Franklin & Marshall
Conn College, W&L
Chicago, Calvin

Final Four:
Messiah, Franklin & Marshall, W&L, Chicago

Finals:
Messiah, Chicago

Champion:
Chicago

LetteroftheLaw

Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 15, 2019, 09:11:28 AM
Absolutely gorgeous day here in the DMV for the Catholic hosted pod.

I'm guessing the visiting teams have arrived and are training on the field today, including Hopkins? Is Hopkins staying down in DC tonight?

Hopkins92

Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 15, 2019, 12:34:25 PM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 15, 2019, 09:11:28 AM
Absolutely gorgeous day here in the DMV for the Catholic hosted pod.

I'm guessing the visiting teams have arrived and are training on the field today, including Hopkins? Is Hopkins staying down in DC tonight?

It's a good question. I posted earlier, it's a REALLY short drive. You could get down there in 45 minutes, train for 60-90 and be back home in time for an early dinner. Just not sure the AD would spring for an overnight at that point.

Christan Shirk

Quote from: blooter442 on November 15, 2019, 11:45:06 AM
Quote from: blue_jays on November 14, 2019, 10:41:24 PM
The NCAA is making a conscious decision to avoid night games as much as possible. Mid-November at night can be significantly worse than mid-November during the day.

Really? If so, why didn't they do this in years past?

I'm not trying to be antagonistic — I just don't get why, if this is a conscious decision, it allegedly wasn't made (or at least not explicitly) in previous years given that cold mid-November weather is not new. Perhaps the recent cold snap would have something to do with it?

This push to daytime games started several years ago on the women's side and starting last year was required for both men and women.  In both last years's and this year's Pre-Championship Manual the default games times were the following:

Option 1: Day 1 - 11:00 am & 1:30 pm, Day 2 - 1:00 pm
Option 2: Day 1 - 1:00 pm & 3:30 pm, Day 2 - 3:00 pm

Requests for exceptions to these two options need to be made a week before the tournament starts when submitting facility evaluation forms.  I think since last year was the first year under the new policy on the men's side, they may have been more lenient in granting exceptions.  Who knows.  And since the preference for women to play day games was pushed, there have always been exceptions granted.  I think one of the acceptable reasons for granting an exception is when a campus has multiple sporting events on the same day and staffing, parking, broadcasting, etc. would be over-stretched/inadequate with too many events happening simultaneous.  But the default is day time games starting last year.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

blooter442

Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 15, 2019, 12:45:00 PM
This push to daytime games started several years ago on the women's side and starting last year was required for both men and women.  In both last years's and this year's Pre-Championship Manual the default games times were the following:

Option 1: Day 1 - 11:00 am & 1:30 pm, Day 2 - 1:00 pm
Option 2: Day 1 - 1:00 pm & 3:30 pm, Day 2 - 3:00 pm

Requests for exceptions to these two options need to be made a week before the tournament starts when submitting facility evaluation forms.  I think since last year was the first year under the new policy on the men's side, they may have been more lenient in granting exceptions.  Who knows.  And since the preference for women to play day games was pushed, there have always been exceptions granted.  I think one of the acceptable reasons for granting an exception is when a campus has multiple sporting events on the same day and staffing, parking, broadcasting, etc. would be over-stretched/inadequate with too many events happening simultaneous.  But the default is day time games starting last year.

Interesting. Offhand, while not the 1st and 2nd Round games, I remember the CWRU sectional games being at night last year — although perhaps that has something to do with Calvin not playing on Sundays. That would seem to be a legitimate exception.

RollToms

My "bracket buster" (if they can be considered as such) is Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. They haven't given up many goals this year, which tends to bode well for tournament success. On top of that, they are battle-tested with a good non-conference schedule where they ended up coming out on top a majority of the time. They have a LB (I believe he was an all american last year), William Birchard, who has elite ability from dead ball situations both in terms of service from corners and deeper free kicks, as well as shooting situations. Taking advantage of set pieces can make or break teams in the tournament, and they have the ability to do so. I definitely like their odds getting into the sweet 16, which sets up a potential matchup with John Carroll, in which I think they could sneak a W.