FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

Started by Adam Sayer, December 24, 2006, 10:01:33 PM

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firstdown

Wabashcpa

No question that shutouts are nice, but Wabash has elected to substitute a great deal during the season on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.  As a result, some potential shutouts during the season were traded for a lot of playing time for the second and third team players.  It has been fun to watch the progression of these players during the season.  The Wabash second/third string defense became  probably the number 3 defense in the NCAC after the Wabash starting defense and Witt's defense.

As a result, when an injury occurs to Justin Woods, (by the way best wishes to Justin for a speedy recovery from his knee surgery),  Peter Fouts was ready to step in and take his place in the Bell Game as he did against OWU.  Justin plays with passion and a wreckless abandon, and that will be missed.

I have no doubt that Coach Leonard will have his team ready with some interesting wrinkles, and not a lot of 7 step drops.  However, Wabash plays a tight man to man defense that will give Welp an interesting Hobbs choice of throwing quickly into tight coverage and risking an interception, or waiting for his receiver to get an opening and face the wrath of a Buresh. or whomever else gets loose in the backfield.  If you try to double on one or both of  the Buresh brothers, there are a lot of other very quick defensive players that will be only to happy to do the honors.  Add some rain into the mix, making for a slippery football, and it will be an interesting game on Saturday.  For Wabash on offense, they have play their game with a top priority avoiding mistakes as they did for most of the season.  As we saw at Witt, the whole game turned on a blocked punt and fumble recovery.

ExTartanPlayer

Today's fun/random stat in support of "why Franklin might have a chance in this game"

Franklin scored two touchdowns in the first quarter against UWW.  Those were the only touchdowns UWW allowed in the first quarter the entire season.

Is it heresy to suggest that the Franklin offense might be better than any offensive unit Wabash has played against? 

Note that I said unit, not player, and that I said might be.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

firstdown

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Today's fun/random stat in support of "why Franklin might have a chance in this game"

Franklin scored two touchdowns in the first quarter against UWW.  Those were the only touchdowns UWW allowed in the first quarter the entire season.

Is it heresy to suggest that the Franklin offense might be better than any offensive unit Wabash has played against? 

Note that I said unit, not player, and that I said might be.

ExTartan Player - I don't think any of the Wabash faithful have suggested that Franklin doesn't have a chance on Saturday.  Coach Leonard will have his team well prepared, and his strategy of playing the top opponents for his non-conference games sets Franklin aside other teams in the weaker conferences and has established Franklin as a team not to be taken lightly in the playoffs.

Comparing Franklin and Hampden-Sydney in the NCAA stats is interesting. Passing Offence Franklin #7, HS #27; Rushing Offense - Franklin #131, HS #154; and scoring offense Franklin #18 and HS #36. By these stats, Franklin is clearly the best passing offense that Wabash has seen all year.

The real question is whether the Wabash defense (and the weather) can slow Franklin down?  Also, Wabash's offense is #19 in scoring offense, and uses its power running game to eat up big chunks of clock.  The time of possession differences in the H-S and DePauw games remind us that the best defense is letting a powerful offense sit on the bench.  They can score if they aren't on the field.


bashgiant

Quote from: firstdown on November 20, 2014, 11:31:27 AM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2014, 10:31:38 AM
Today's fun/random stat in support of "why Franklin might have a chance in this game"

Franklin scored two touchdowns in the first quarter against UWW.  Those were the only touchdowns UWW allowed in the first quarter the entire season.

Is it heresy to suggest that the Franklin offense might be better than any offensive unit Wabash has played against? 

Note that I said unit, not player, and that I said might be.

ExTartan Player - I don't think any of the Wabash faithful have suggested that Franklin doesn't have a chance on Saturday.  Coach Leonard will have his team well prepared, and his strategy of playing the top opponents for his non-conference games sets Franklin aside other teams in the weaker conferences and has established Franklin as a team not to be taken lightly in the playoffs.

Comparing Franklin and Hampden-Sydney in the NCAA stats is interesting. Passing Offence Franklin #7, HS #27; Rushing Offense - Franklin #131, HS #154; and scoring offense Franklin #18 and HS #36. By these stats, Franklin is clearly the best passing offense that Wabash has seen all year.

The real question is whether the Wabash defense (and the weather) can slow Franklin down?  Also, Wabash's offense is #19 in scoring offense, and uses its power running game to eat up big chunks of clock.  The time of possession differences in the H-S and DePauw games remind us that the best defense is letting a powerful offense sit on the bench.  They can score if they aren't on the field.

Not for sure but from what I read on the boards I believe the ODAC is a much better league than the HCAC. Please correct me if I am wrong.

jknezek

I would take the ODAC over the HCAC with the possible exception of Franklin. Franklin and the top ODAC team would be a good battle that I think Franklin wins more years than not. Other than that, 2 in the ODAC versus 2 in the HCAC and down the line, I think the ODAC is much better.

emma17

There aren't any statistics that I can point to that would support me saying Franklin should win this game.  Most stats suggest they should get run over. 

That said, I will be surprised if this isn't a close game that comes down to the fourth quarter.  I believe this because the Franklin coaching staff is very much accustomed to putting together game plans against teams with legitimate dominating stats, dominating running games, dominating passing games and dominating defenses.  I don't know (yet) that Wabash is a legitimate dominating team in any of the areas because I haven't seen them do it against top competition.  They may well be the real deal, but too early to say.     

   

wally_wabash

Quote from: emma17 on November 20, 2014, 12:55:56 PM
I don't know (yet) that Wabash is a legitimate dominating team in any of the areas because I haven't seen them do it against top competition.  They may well be the real deal, but too early to say.     

This is where these debates gets sticky depending on who is participating.  Because your idea of "top competition" is pretty different from the idea that the other 99% of D3 have. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

firstdown

Jknezek

Based upon the stats, and Franklin has slightly better stats, Franklin has a slightly better passing offense.  If you factor in the opponents, H-S has clearly played a more difficult schedule, with the exception of Franklin having playing UWW.  With a common opponent on Saturday, it will be much easier to make the more subjective, qualitative comparison.  I still think that Holton Walker is the best wide receiver in Division 3, and Nash is very good quarterback.

To ExTartan Player's comment's, Franklin did play UWW pretty well early in the game.  However, UWW has one of the best defenses in the nation, and once UWW got rolling, they didn't look up until it was 42-13.  I believe UWW has around 300 yards rushing that day.

I believe that the Wabash defense will match up with the Franklin offense.  Franklin has only played 2 teams that rank higher then Wabash in total offense, and were 1 and 1 against those 2 teams.  Franklin's defense is the weakest link.  If they can't stop the Wabash rushing game, then Wabash will use the run game to pile up a big disparity in the time of possession and if it can't get on the field, the Franklin offense can't score.  Further, this also keeps the Wabash defense off the field so it will be better rested and can maintain fresh legs and its speedy pursuit when they are on the field.

Emma17 - to your point, the Wabash defense has played quite well against its best opponents two playoff teams - H-S and Witt.  Witt was a very close game, and the outcome came down as often happens in such games to fumble recovery by Witt, otherwise Wabash wins 15 to 14. 

jknezek

Quote from: firstdown on November 20, 2014, 01:05:52 PM
Jknezek

Based upon the stats, and Franklin has slightly better stats, Franklin has a slightly better passing offense.  If you factor in the opponents, H-S has clearly played a more difficult schedule, with the exception of Franklin having playing UWW.  With a common opponent on Saturday, it will be much easier to make the more subjective, qualitative comparison.  I still think that Holton Walker is the best wide receiver in Division 3, and Nash is very good quarterback.


Agreed on all of this. I wasn't just talking about this year however. I was thinking about a reasonable sample size of a couple years. Franklin this year and H-SC would be a fun game to watch. Over the last five years I think Franklin wins more often than not.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: firstdown on November 20, 2014, 01:05:52 PM
To ExTartan Player's comment's, Franklin did play UWW pretty well early in the game.  However, UWW has one of the best defenses in the nation, and once UWW got rolling, they didn't look up until it was 42-13.  I believe UWW has around 300 yards rushing that day.

You, like, entirely missed my point.  Nowhere did my post say anything about Franklin's run defense, nor did it say anything about the final score of the game, or how Franklin would compare against UWW in another game.  I'm well aware that UWW has one of the best defenses in the nation - that was the entire basis of my post!

I brought that little nugget - that Franklin scored two first-quarter touchdowns against a team that allowed zero first-quarter points in the next 9 games - to point out that Franklin has shown the ability to score against very good defenses, and that's one of the shreds of data we can dredge up supporting Franklin's chance to come out with a win this weekend.  Most everything else supports Wabash.  Franklin wants a track meet in this game.  Scoring a couple of quick TD's would be a good start, even if their defense is bound to wear down again.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

BashBacker#16

With so many references to the Wabash/Witt game, let me just point out a few things:

- the Bash D. Played extremely well that day.  With the exception of Witt's long drive in the 2nd half, they couldn't move the ball.  They had 74 yards of offense in the 1st half.
- the Bash D held Witt to 200 total yards
- Witt blocked a punt and that gave Witt the ball on the Wabash 17 - you can't pin that score on the Bash D
- Wabash ran 51 offensive plays in the 1st half.  They rushed for over 240
- Wabash had over 350 in total offense

Credit to Witt for winning the game but as BashDad called it, it was a "looney" game.  2 huge plays did it:  the blocked punt and the sack/fumble/scoop&score...

Not that that can't happen again this Saturday but lets not pretend this will be Franklin's recipe to win the game. 

Wabash Hokie

Wabash just posted their game notes.  See link below.  I checked Franklin's site and no game notes have been posted as yet.  When do they normally come out?


http://sports.wabash.edu/documents/2014/11/20/2014NCAA1Gamenotes.pdf


The forecast for Saturday seems to be getting warmer but wetter and windy.   Hope any rain holds off until after the game.

BashDad


USee

Quote from: BashBacker#16 on November 19, 2014, 09:03:00 PM
WabashCPA,

You're posting in true Phi Psi fashion.  Leonard is a very good coach, I'm not saying that at all.  But, for you to think the Grizzlies will be running up and down the field is nuts.  Have other teams tried the catch and throw approach?  You think Pettiford will be sitting back in a 10 yard cushion?  Do you think the Bash D will close in hurry before a big gain?  How good is Griffith?  Cmehil?

Wabash isn't any of the following:  Manchester, Rose-Hulman (great D btw), Hanover, Defiance, Blufton, Anderson, Mt St Joe, etc.  They're far from it. 

We will see.  I'm giving Franklin 21 points which includes a late score.  I'm giving Wabash 49.  This D is one of the best we've ever had - and we've had some really good ones!

WAF

BashDad made the claim on the NCAC board that this is the best Bash D ever. I replied that in my 20+ years of seeing Wabash (a little every year) I tend to agree. I also think this is a statement best made 2 weeks from now if the LG's are prepping for the quarterfinals. While this Wabash Defense passes the look and sniff test they have not been tested to the extent they will be in these coming weeks.

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 20, 2014, 12:59:54 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 20, 2014, 12:55:56 PM
I don't know (yet) that Wabash is a legitimate dominating team in any of the areas because I haven't seen them do it against top competition.  They may well be the real deal, but too early to say.     

This is where these debates gets sticky depending on who is participating.  Because your idea of "top competition" is pretty different from the idea that the other 99% of D3 have. 

This we can attempt to quantify a little. Wabash has the #3 rated defense in the land. They have put up some dominating numbers and if you watch them you can see they come down hill and attack the LOS and the QB with reckless abandon. They lead the country in sacks per game. And for teams with worse personnel and no schematic answer, it got ugly fast. Wabash has faced zero offenses ranked higher than #50 in the nation. In their 10 games they have faced (and dominated) offenses ranked #55(HSC), #50(Den), #202(Gheny), #102(Woo), #94 (OWU), #211 (Keny), #212 (Obe), #114 (Hiram), #96 (Witt), #110 (DeP). It's hard to tell much from many of those games. Doesn't mean by any stretch this D isn't for real, just means we may not know how good, YET.

This weekend they face, very arguably, the best offense they have faced this year. Franklin is ranked #20 and is the #7 ranked pass offense in the land. Now before you guys go off on how they got that ranking lets admit they didn't exactly face many great defenses except for 1 (I think IWU was better than most of the HCAC defenses they faced as well). But I think its fair to say with the history and talent Franklin has and Mike Leonard at the helm, this is likely the best offense Bash will have faced so far. That means its a great opportunity.

So to say "No way Franklin scores more than 21" is a bit more bravado than fact. It may prove to be fact but I would be very surprised if Franklin was held to less than 3 scores. Wabash hasn't faced anyone that had personnel AND scheme to answer their relentless attack. I don't know if Mike Leonard has the horses, but I am confident he will have the scheme.

I have no answer for how Franklin will stop the Bash attack. The numbers look scary. All this to say I think the Bash D has its stiffest test and if Franklin figures out a way to score 28 pts it wouldn't surprise me. But it probably won't be enough.

USee

Quote from: BashBacker#16 on November 20, 2014, 01:46:32 PM
With so many references to the Wabash/Witt game, let me just point out a few things:

- the Bash D. Played extremely well that day.  With the exception of Witt's long drive in the 2nd half, they couldn't move the ball.  They had 74 yards of offense in the 1st half.
- the Bash D held Witt to 200 total yards
- Witt blocked a punt and that gave Witt the ball on the Wabash 17 - you can't pin that score on the Bash D
- Wabash ran 51 offensive plays in the 1st half.  They rushed for over 240
- Wabash had over 350 in total offense

Credit to Witt for winning the game but as BashDad called it, it was a "looney" game.  2 huge plays did it:  the blocked punt and the sack/fumble/scoop&score...

Not that that can't happen again this Saturday but lets not pretend this will be Franklin's recipe to win the game.

Witt's D played pretty well too. They shut out Wabash in the 2nd half. Wabash D came in giving up 3.2 yds per play. Witt gained 3.3 yds per play. Witt D came in giving up 4.2 yds per play, Wabash gained 4.3 yds per play. In games played that tight with two great teams, a couple plays will often determine the outcome.