2017 Great Lakes Region

Started by Domino1195, February 28, 2017, 04:29:17 PM

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Domino1195

Massey Ratings as of this morning - current rating, current and future SOS:

Position
Team
Record
Δ
Rat
Team
SoS
Team
SSF
1
Kenyon
North Coast AC
4-1
0.800
-3
9
1.23
Carnegie Mellon
University AA
10
2.28
Case Western
University AA
2
1.99
2
John Carroll
Ohio AC
3-0
1.000
45
14
1.09
DePauw
North Coast AC
17
1.91
Carnegie Mellon
University AA
9
1.73
3
Carnegie Mellon
University AA
2-1
0.667
14
18
1.04
John Carroll
Ohio AC
25
1.77
Ohio Wesleyan
North Coast AC
21
1.39
4
Oberlin
North Coast AC
3-1
0.750
8
36
0.79
Kenyon
North Coast AC
29
1.65
Denison
North Coast AC
42
1.10
5
Case Western
University AA
2-1-1
0.625
6
43
0.73
Denison
North Coast AC
47
1.44
Allegheny
North Coast AC
48
1.04
6
Ohio Northern
Ohio AC
3-1-1
0.700
-9
45
0.70
Ohio Wesleyan
North Coast AC
52
1.35
DePauw
North Coast AC
52
1.01
7
Geneva
Presidents' AC
3-0
1.000
87
55
0.62
PSU-Behrend
Allegheny Mtn
55
1.33
Oberlin
North Coast AC
54
0.99
8
Ohio Wesleyan
North Coast AC
2-2
0.500
1
57
0.62
Case Western
University AA
62
1.22
Hiram
North Coast AC
55
0.99
9
Capital
Ohio AC
3-1
0.750
48
61
0.61
Hanover
Heartland CAC
69
1.15
Capital
Ohio AC
58
0.93
10
DePauw
North Coast AC
1-1-1
0.500
-5
62
0.61
Otterbein
Ohio AC
73
1.11
Ohio Northern
Ohio AC
87
0.70
11
Grove City
Presidents' AC
3-0-1
0.875
30
73
0.54
Thomas More
Presidents' AC
92
0.96
Mt Union
Ohio AC
91
0.69
12
PSU-Behrend
Allegheny Mtn
2-1
0.667
77
76
0.53
Wilmington OH
Ohio AC
107
0.80
Otterbein
Ohio AC
104
0.60
13
Medaille
Allegheny Mtn
4-0
1.000
130
83
0.50
Capital
Ohio AC
110
0.73

bestfancle

Quote from: Domino1195 on September 10, 2017, 07:15:01 PM
Massey Ratings as of this morning - current rating, current and future SOS:

Position
Team
Record
Δ
Rat
Team
SoS
Team
SSF
1
Kenyon
North Coast AC
4-1
0.800
-3
9
1.23
Carnegie Mellon
University AA
10
2.28
Case Western
University AA
2
1.99
2
John Carroll
Ohio AC
3-0
1.000
45
14
1.09
DePauw
North Coast AC
17
1.91
Carnegie Mellon
University AA
9
1.73
3
Carnegie Mellon
University AA
2-1
0.667
14
18
1.04
John Carroll
Ohio AC
25
1.77
Ohio Wesleyan
North Coast AC
21
1.39
4
Oberlin
North Coast AC
3-1
0.750
8
36
0.79
Kenyon
North Coast AC
29
1.65
Denison
North Coast AC
42
1.10
5
Case Western
University AA
2-1-1
0.625
6
43
0.73
Denison
North Coast AC
47
1.44
Allegheny
North Coast AC
48
1.04
6
Ohio Northern
Ohio AC
3-1-1
0.700
-9
45
0.70
Ohio Wesleyan
North Coast AC
52
1.35
DePauw
North Coast AC
52
1.01
7
Geneva
Presidents' AC
3-0
1.000
87
55
0.62
PSU-Behrend
Allegheny Mtn
55
1.33
Oberlin
North Coast AC
54
0.99
8
Ohio Wesleyan
North Coast AC
2-2
0.500
1
57
0.62
Case Western
University AA
62
1.22
Hiram
North Coast AC
55
0.99
9
Capital
Ohio AC
3-1
0.750
48
61
0.61
Hanover
Heartland CAC
69
1.15
Capital
Ohio AC
58
0.93
10
DePauw
North Coast AC
1-1-1
0.500
-5
62
0.61
Otterbein
Ohio AC
73
1.11
Ohio Northern
Ohio AC
87
0.70
11
Grove City
Presidents' AC
3-0-1
0.875
30
73
0.54
Thomas More
Presidents' AC
92
0.96
Mt Union
Ohio AC
91
0.69
12
PSU-Behrend
Allegheny Mtn
2-1
0.667
77
76
0.53
Wilmington OH
Ohio AC
107
0.80
Otterbein
Ohio AC
104
0.60
13
Medaille
Allegheny Mtn
4-0
1.000
130
83
0.50
Capital
Ohio AC
110
0.73

Thanks Domino!

In my opinion. Case and JCU look the best. I think Ohio Northern is a little high, especially after that Geneva game. I'm excited for Kenyon's next few games. They play a lot of OAC opponents, and I expect them to have a good showing.

PSU-B should go up in rankings the next few weeks. Like you mentioned in another thread, Medaille didn't look great (I think PSU-B was better). Heidelberg and Marietta may jump into the rankings. Heidelberg is a sleeper team of sorts, have a strong freshman class.

TableMax

Massey Ratings look like CNN and Fake News...  JCU should be Number 1 team....

PaulNewman

A couple of you are mentioning Case and I can't tell if you are confusing Case and JCU.  On what basis would you all be so high on Case so far?

JCU obviously is doing well.  Kenyon has rebounded from that "could have gone either way" away loss, especially with a nice away win over Centre which has a history of faring well against Kenyon, OWU, DePauw, etc.

In terms of overlooking, don't overlook CMU, which had two nice wins on the West Coast.  The CMU coach never stops screaming at the refs but the Tartans are a very good, tough team.

Also, Oberlin had a very respectable showing against Calvin, as the Yeomen were only 4-5 minutes away from a major upset win.  Unfortunately, they conceded twice within a minute and lost 3-2.  The Calvin coach (who along with Shapiro at Tufts I consider perhaps the top young coach in D3) gave his now almost formulaic-sounding post-game comments about how much respect he has for the Oberlin coaching staff and the program or whatever.

UAA Insider

I agree, Paul. I think everyone is high on Case's SOS, but keep looking past JCU's hot start. They play on Wednesday, should be a good gauge on the GL region.

bestfancle

Agreed Paul, sorry if I came off confusing. Anyways, I am excited for the JCU games this week. Case and Ohio Wesleyan (who JCU haven't played in about 6 years).

I haven't had the chance to watch Oberlin, I will try to catch one of their games this week. I know they graduated some really talented guys from last season.

Domino1195


These next two weeks kick off the Battle for Ohio contests between NCAC and OAC teams.  OAC with a respectable start YTD - but there are more top tier match-ups coming up that will provide more insight as to whether the top teams in the OAC have gained ground on the historically stronger NCAC. Current and future SOS - as of what I posted yesterday - still reflects history, to a degree. Head-to-head will be far more telling.




Tue. 12   Allegheny   Baldwin Wallace       7:00 PM   
Wed. 13   Kenyon       Marietta       4:30 PM
           Denison       Capital       7:00 PM
           Ohio Wesleyan   Ohio Northern   7:00 PM   
            Otterbein           Hiram       7:30 PM
Thu. 14   Baldwin Wallace   Wooster       5:00 PM   
Fri. 15   Wittenberg   Wilmington   7:30 PM
Sat. 16      Ohio Northern   Oberlin       7:00 PM   
            Ohio Wesleyan   John Carroll   7:00 PM   
            Mount Union   Denison       7:00 PM
Wed. 20   Denison       Otterbein       7:00 PM   
            Baldwin Wallace   Oberlin       7:00 PM   
            Wooster       Capital       7:00 PM   
            Hiram       John Carroll   7:00 PM   
Thu. 21   Heidelberg           Kenyon       5:15 PM

TableMax

The mighty "Tommies" came into Franklin County and left with a 0-2 defeat but rebounded nicely in Delaware County.  Didn't even have to save a shot on goal except from own team..  Interesting how Massey has OWU so high in the "RANKINGS"....

I hope Capital can survive week against the NCAC and a highly  ranked Washington and Lee side....   

bestfancle

OAC News:

POW: Joseph Schulte, Ohio Northern, Junior, Midfielder. 3 goals in Northern's 3 victories.

Standings (non-conference):
t-1. John Carroll (4-0)
t-1. Marietta (4-0)
3. Heidelburg (3-0)
4. Capital (3-1)
5. ONU (3-1-1)
6. Otterbein (2-1)
7. Mount Union (2-2)
8. Wilmington (1-3-1)
9. BW (1-3)
10. Muskingum (0-4-1)

Games to watch:

9/12:
Allegany at BW

9/13:
Kenyon at Marietta
Mount at Geneva
OWU at ONU
JCU at Case

9/16:
Marietta at Case
Capital at W&L
ONU at Oberlin
OWU at JCU
Mount at Denison
Grove City at Otterbein 

A lot should clear up this weekend. I would look at Capital, Marietta, and Northern. OAC has typically been top heavy (JCU and ONU in the past 5 years). It will be interesting to see if Capital and Marietta can cause some damage, and if ONU's rough start was just a fluke.

Domino1195

Not even a single nod to Marietta???  4-0 - all clean sheets - 3 of 4 on the road - one at Wooster who RV???  Not a killer schedule but that's still an impressive start.  They can have a say in next week's rankings - hosting Kenyon tomorrow and visiting Case on Saturday.

United Soccer Coaches NCAA Division III Men - Great Lakes - Poll 1 - September 12, 2017

Rank   School   Prev.   W-L-T
1   John Carroll University
DH Penn State-Behrend 3-1; DA Medaille College 3-0;   NR   4-0-0
2   Kenyon College
DH Otterbein University 4-1; DH Spalding University 1-0; DA Centre College 2-0;   NR   4-1-0
3   Carnegie Mellon University
DA University of Redlands 1-0; DA Pomona-Pitzer Colleges 1-0;   NR   3-1-0
4   Geneva College
DA La Roche College 6-2;   NR   3-0-0
5   Transylvania University
DH Birmingham-Southern College 1-0; DA Berry College 2-0;   NR   3-0-0
6   Oberlin College
DH Brooklyn College 6-1; LH Calvin College 0-3;   NR   3-1-0
7   Capital University
DH University of St. Thomas 2-0; DH Millikin University 3-1;   NR   3-1-0
8   Ohio Northern University
DH Wittenberg University 2-1; DH Kalamazoo College 3-1; DH Thomas More College 3-0;   NR   3-1-1
9   Grove City College
DH College of Wooster 1-0; DH Allegheny College 2-1;   NR   3-0-1
10   Penn State-Behrend
LA John Carroll University 1-3; DH Hiram College 4-0;   NR   2-1-0
Also receiving votes: Hanover College (3), Medaille College (3), Heidelberg University (2), College of Wooster (1), DePauw University (1), Otterbein (1)

Ryan Harmanis

Nice to see the GL thread up and running.  My thoughts, having seen only a few teams play:

(1) John Carroll has been the best team so far. If they knock off OWU and Case they should be a Pool C lock barring a total collapse, and they look like the clear #1 in the OAC.

(2) Kenyon still looks like the best team in the NCAC. The win over Carnegie could come in handy. I don't think they'll be as dominant as the last few years. But not sure the rest of the NCAC has closed the gap.

(3) Impressed with Capital against St. Thomas. The St. Mary's loss is a head scratcher, and they rode their luck against St. Thomas, but you take it. The reaction at full-time was a little too celebratory, which made the slow start against a terrible Millikin team unsurprising. But nice job to turn it around at half. I don't see them topping JCU in the regular season. But wins over W&L and/or OWU plus a stronger SOS could help with a Pool C.

(4) Disappointed with OWU against St. Thomas. OWU played Calvin dead even, so was expecting a better showing. Gifted an own goal but couldn't create much else. St. Thomas was good - better than Calvin in my opinion. Doesn't get easier, with trips to ONU and John Carroll this week and Case (home) and Oberlin (away) the next. OWU is even younger this year - started 0 seniors, 2 juniors, 7 sophs, and 2 frosh against Calvin. Bright side to that is OWU has a chance to grow a ton from now to the end of the season. But they need to put some wins together now or else they'll have to win the NCAC tournament.

(5) NCAC still looks a little stronger, but it's an open question, more than at any point in the last decade. OAC might have the best team in JCU. Capital continues to get better. Should balance a dropoff from ONU. Kenyon and DePauw look weaker than last year, and OWU isn't there yet. Wabash and Oberlin probably make the NCAC deeper. Denison has been disappointing. We'll see what happens in the next two weeks.

(6) Marietta hasn't earned it yet. This was a topic of discussion last year, but to get votes/respect you have to either (a) beat teams people respect, (b) rattle off a bunch of wins (8, 9, 10), or (c) have a reputation from prior years. Marietta was average (at best) last year, and they haven't beaten anyone of note yet. If they knock off Case or Kenyon, people will notice.

(7) Wooster receiving a vote is absurd. They've won an average of 4 games for the last 5 years and have not even sniffed the conference tournament once. They have zero good (or even decent) wins this year. Nothing more to say on it.

bestfancle

Unfortunately, I won't be able to attend the JCU vs. Case game tonight. In the past, it has always seemed like the home team wins that match-up, which is odd because the schools are only a short 20 minutes apart. I expect this to be JCU's 4th toughest game left on the schedule (Behind at CMU, vs Ohio Northern in conference, and the OAC tournament final) ahead of Saturday's game against OWU.

I expect this game to me very tough for JCU, the physical play of their cross-town rival will test their freshman, and JCU's back line is not necessarily sound.

Case has a great stream that will be available here at game-time:
http://athletics.case.edu/sports/msoc/live

UAA Insider

Quote from: bestfancle on September 13, 2017, 09:16:06 AM
Unfortunately, I won't be able to attend the JCU vs. Case game tonight. In the past, it has always seemed like the home team wins that match-up, which is odd because the schools are only a short 20 minutes apart. I expect this to be JCU's 4th toughest game left on the schedule (Behind at CMU, vs Ohio Northern in conference, and the OAC tournament final) ahead of Saturday's game against OWU.

I expect this game to me very tough for JCU, the physical play of their cross-town rival will test their freshman, and JCU's back line is not necessarily sound.

Case has a great stream that will be available here at game-time:
http://athletics.case.edu/sports/msoc/live

Case has taken three of the last four against JCU, will be interesting to see the matchup tonight.

Domino1195

Finals: Marietta vs Kenyon 0-0. Oberlin vs Grove City 1-1.

PaulNewman

Miserable outing for Kenyon.  Yes, conditions were poor but zero excuse for not scoring.  Chance after chance after chance around the six or closer.  And another week will go by with some thinking Marietta is decent but they aren't.  They kicked the ball out at every chance, threw the ball as high in the air as they could, and kicked the ball away every time they gave away a re-start.  Kudos to the Marietta GK who made some miraculous saves in very poor conditions for a GK.  The even worse news from this vantage point is that Kenyon indeed is just a notch over mediocre right now.  The defense at full strength is still probably top-tier but the troubles scoring is going to force the defense out of shape with pressure on Myers and Wynn to keep pulling out wins for them.  The senior class needs to step up and the Lords need to get in a habit of scoring early instead of leaving games in the balance 0-0 or 1-1 late.

Not a great result for Oberlin either, but Grove City is pretty good and letdown after Calvin probably to be expected.