MBB: North Coast Athletic Conference

Started by WoosterFAN, January 27, 2005, 10:51:56 AM

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fantastic50

Wooster brought a 48-game winning streak against Oberlin (dating back to 1990) into tonight's game against the Yeomen, who had lost 17 in a row since beating Alfred State before Thanksgiving.  Both streaks very nearly ended, but Wooster escaped by a 69-68 score.  In the last minute, Oberlin was called for charging and missed make-able shots on two possessions, including one just before the buzzer. 

Oberlin's scores suggest that they are much better than their record would indicate, with close defeats to #12 Denison (72-69), #15 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (60-57), Witt, OWU, DePauw, and now Wooster.

TheOsprey

OWU about to take down Denison.

Three way tie on top. 

woolax

This Saturday Wooster goes to Denison who is coming off a mid-week loss to OWU. What are people's thoughts on the matchup?

Dr. Acula

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 01, 2017, 09:25:45 PM
Wooster brought a 48-game winning streak against Oberlin (dating back to 1990) into tonight's game against the Yeomen, who had lost 17 in a row since beating Alfred State before Thanksgiving.  Both streaks very nearly ended, but Wooster escaped by a 69-68 score.  In the last minute, Oberlin was called for charging and missed make-able shots on two possessions, including one just before the buzzer. 

Oberlin's scores suggest that they are much better than their record would indicate, with close defeats to #12 Denison (72-69), #15 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (60-57), Witt, OWU, DePauw, and now Wooster.

They're 1-19.  Aren't they probably just really bad this year?  Occam's razor.  If they weren't they'd have won an NCAC game or 3.  It's not like the bottom half is a meat grinder.  I'd say those close scores would more likely be teams being asleep at the wheel against them.  But Oberlin has appeared to play their best ball recently.  Hopefully they can notch a few conference W's down the stretch.   

Gregory Sager

Quote from: Dr. Acula on February 02, 2017, 05:42:20 PM
Quote from: fantastic50 on February 01, 2017, 09:25:45 PM
Wooster brought a 48-game winning streak against Oberlin (dating back to 1990) into tonight's game against the Yeomen, who had lost 17 in a row since beating Alfred State before Thanksgiving.  Both streaks very nearly ended, but Wooster escaped by a 69-68 score.  In the last minute, Oberlin was called for charging and missed make-able shots on two possessions, including one just before the buzzer. 

Oberlin's scores suggest that they are much better than their record would indicate, with close defeats to #12 Denison (72-69), #15 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (60-57), Witt, OWU, DePauw, and now Wooster.

They're 1-19.  Aren't they probably just really bad this year?  Occam's razor.  If they weren't they'd have won an NCAC game or 3.  It's not like the bottom half is a meat grinder.  I'd say those close scores would more likely be teams being asleep at the wheel against them.  But Oberlin has appeared to play their best ball recently.  Hopefully they can notch a few conference W's down the stretch.

Occam's Razor is a good way to describe a series of close shaves. ;)

Seriously, though, one consolation for the Yeomen is that they're probably among a tiny percentage of college basketball players who would understand a reference to Occam's Razor.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

ScotsFan

Quote from: sac on January 26, 2017, 07:45:02 PM


Also speaking of Denison, next 3 games for them will go a long way to settling the NCAC race.

1-28   Wittenberg
2-1    at Ohio Wesleyan
2-4    Wooster

NCAC standings
Denison                    11-0   17-1
Ohio Wesleyan       9-2   12-6
Wooster                      9-2   12-6
Wittenberg              6-5   12-6

Well, Denison had a 2 game lead in the NCAC prior to that 3 game stretch and now sit a game back having lost all 3 games...

Wooster used a 20-0 run in the 2nd half to pull away for the easy win over the Big Red!  Wooster seemed in control most of the first half only to see DU grab a bit of momentum to start the 2nd half and actually pulled within 2 and had the crowd back in the game.  But a little over 5 minutes later, the lead was 22 for the Scots and Wooster was never really threatened the rest of the way.   

With OWU and Wooster now tied atop the standings, Saturday's showdown in Delaware is a HUGE game in deciding the regular season conference title.

Wittenberg will also have a chance to factor in the outcome of the conference title in the role of spoiler as OWU has to travel to Springfield and Wooster will host Witt on the final game of the regular season.

Bishopleftiesdad

OWU wins 81-72 against Wooster at Branch Rickey. They have Witt and Allegheny left to play.

fantastic50

Nice win for the Bishops.  Here's the update...

Based on simulations (including tiebreakers), here are the tourney seed probabilities, coming into the day

1) OWU(14-2, split with Woo & Den) - 66% #1, 24% #2, 10% #3
2) Wooster(13-3) - 26% #1, 41% #2, 23% #3
3) Denison(13-3) - 8% #1, 35% #2, 57% #3
4) Witt (11-5) - 0.3% #2 or #3, 99.7% #4
5) Wabash(7-9, swept Hiram) - 60% #5, 12% #6, 28% #7
6) Hiram(7-9) - 33% #5, 55% #6, 12% #7
7) DePauw(6-10) - 7% #5, 32% #6, 60% #7, 1% #8
8) Allegheny(4-12, split with Kenyon) - 1% #7, 59% #8, 40% out
9) Kenyon(4-12) - 41% #8, 59% out
10) Oberlin(1-15) - 100% out

fantastic50

Obviously, OWU would be the top seed with two more wins, but here are the applicable tiebreakers.

If an OWU loss to Witt led to ties for first at 15-3, then Wooster would win any tiebreakers. OWU, Denison, and Wooster all split against each other, and Wooster would be the only one to sweep Witt.  A tie between only OWU and Denison in this scenario would come down to a coin flip, as both would have lost to the same three opponents.

An OWU win over Allegheny locks up the top seed for the Bishops, as even if they lost to Allegheny, OWU would hold the tiebreaker over Denison by sweeping Witt, and over Wooster by sweeping Hiram.

Wabash holds the tiebreaker over Hiram based on a head-to-head sweep. If Wabash finishes the sweep of DePauw on Wednesday night, they would hold that tiebreaker as well. However, if DePauw beats Wabash, then the Tigers win the tiebreaker (split head-to-head, both 0-6 vs top three, DePauw would have the only win over 4th-place Witt.) Hiram would win a tiebreaker over DePauw, because of beating Wooster.

A Kenyon/Allegheny tie for 8th is more uncertain, and might come down to the results of other games this week.

Bishopleftiesdad

With their win over the Gators, OWU, takes the NCAC regular season title , and the 1 seed for the tournament.

fantastic50

Saturday's scores
OWU 110, Allegheny 55
Denison 76, Wabash 65
Hiram 58, Kenyon 55
DePauw 71, Oberlin 68
Wooster 99, Wittenberg 71

Quarterfinals - Tuesday evening
#8 Kenyon (5-20, 4-14) at #1 Ohio Wesleyan (19-6, 16-2)
#5 Hiram (11-14, 8-10) at #4 Wittenberg (17-8, 11-7)
#6 DePauw (12-13, 8-10) at #3 Denison (21-4, 15-3)
#7 Wabash (11-14, 7-11) at #2 Wooster (18-7, 15-3)

Assuming that OWU wins their quarterfinal, they will host the weekend games.  Due to the relatively small capacity of Branch Rickey Arena, Friday night would be a split session, with games at 5:30 and 8:30, and the gym cleared in between.  Saturday's championship will be a 4:00 tip.

The only likely way that the NCAC gets multiple bids in the national tournament is if Wooster loses the final, and even that is no guarantee.  OWU and Denison might have an outside chance at a Pool C berth by losing the final, but that seems unlikely.

TheOsprey


Wooster Booster

Quote from: TheOsprey on February 21, 2017, 07:35:47 PM
Why is Fanelly not in lineup?

I just came on here to hopefully find out the same thing. :)  Wooster won 89-68 and Fanelly didn't play at all.  The story, which surely will provide some information, isn't up yet.  Most likely an injury in practice, but we'll know for sure soon.  Wooster started four guards and a forward!

Wooster Booster

To whomever wrote the story on the Wooster website about last night's game.  Did you not think it was news that Dan Fanelly did not play?  Really?  To not even mention that he did not play isn't bad journalism, it's a joke.  Go get a job in the Trump administration, Kellyanne.

imderekpoe

Per The Daily Record it was a coaches decision and his status for Friday isn't known.