Author Topic: Great Lakes Region  (Read 250367 times)

Offline sac

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 13512
  • Karma: +2421/-1890
  • Rejoice in Hope
    • View Profile
    • Speaking of Alaska - my basketball blog
Great Lakes Region
« on: February 21, 2007, 06:46:48 pm »
Thought we could start a region room to discuss the rankings, etc.

Great Lakes Region
1. Lake Erie 23-2 19-1
2. Wooster 22-3 17-2
3. John Carroll 17-8 16-6
4. Hope 21-3 14-3
5. Ohio Northern 19-6 14-6
6. Wittenberg 21-4 16-4
Give to Hope
Twitter

Now with 35.3% less posting

Offline smedindy

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 9789
  • Karma: +1060/-878
  • ‘Heliotrope, Hell!’ orated he: ‘We want blood!’
    • View Profile
    • Music reviews for one and all, or me at least.
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2007, 07:35:59 pm »
Ah, what a fine mess the NCAA has gotten themselves into. Arguably the second or third best team is #6 and in danger of not making the field, while arguably the weakest of those six is #1.

 :-[

Offline sac

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 13512
  • Karma: +2421/-1890
  • Rejoice in Hope
    • View Profile
    • Speaking of Alaska - my basketball blog
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2007, 09:45:15 pm »
Final: Otterbein 52, Ohio Northern 51. Last second shot by OTT's Ousely goes in. The Cards advance to take on Capital for round three Friday night.

This will have a big impact on next weeks secret rankings.
Give to Hope
Twitter

Now with 35.3% less posting

Offline ChicagoHopeNut

  • All-Region
  • *****
  • Posts: 1121
  • Karma: +145/-89
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2007, 09:48:50 pm »
Final: Otterbein 52, Ohio Northern 51. Last second shot by OTT's Ousely goes in. The Cards advance to take on Capital for round three Friday night.

This will have a big impact on next weeks secret rankings.

Secrets, secrets are no fun...

I think it will be very interesting to see where these 6 teams end up in the tourney, where they play, and against whom.
Tribes of primitve hunters, with rhinestone codpieces rampant, should build pyramids of Chevy engines covered in butterscotch syrup to exalt the diastolic, ineffable, scintillated and cacophonous salamander of truth which slimes and distracts from each and every orifice of your holy refrigerator.

Offline kiltedbryan

  • All-Conference
  • ****
  • Posts: 864
  • Karma: +61/-12
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2007, 09:49:27 pm »
Final: Otterbein 52, Ohio Northern 51. Last second shot by OTT's Ousely goes in. The Cards advance to take on Capital for round three Friday night.

This will have a big impact on next weeks secret rankings.

Namely, the impact of helping the NCAC Pool C and hurting ONU's chances of even being invited to the dance.  What a fall for ONU.  After starting the season 11-1, including wins over Wittenberg and Wooster, they end the season 8-6 and are in serious Pool C danger.

Offline sac

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 13512
  • Karma: +2421/-1890
  • Rejoice in Hope
    • View Profile
    • Speaking of Alaska - my basketball blog
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2007, 09:53:35 pm »
I think they are done
Give to Hope
Twitter

Now with 35.3% less posting

Offline kiltedbryan

  • All-Conference
  • ****
  • Posts: 864
  • Karma: +61/-12
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2007, 09:59:24 pm »
Sac,

You're probably right.  David argued on the NCAC board that Wittenberg probably can't get a C bid either.  We could be looking at only the four AQ bids making it from this entire region:  Lake Erie, Wooster, Hope, and John Carroll.  Those are also the only four that are solid "if not As, then Cs" in the whole region.

Offline sac

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 13512
  • Karma: +2421/-1890
  • Rejoice in Hope
    • View Profile
    • Speaking of Alaska - my basketball blog
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2007, 10:02:29 pm »
Well losing in the conference final is better than losing in a quarterfinal.  Semi-Final conference tournament losers rarely get C's.  I think Witt's in a lot better shape after tonight.  They probably only have to worry if someone other than JCU wins the OAC tournament.   Capital can't be far off the regional rankings.
Give to Hope
Twitter

Now with 35.3% less posting

Offline kiltedbryan

  • All-Conference
  • ****
  • Posts: 864
  • Karma: +61/-12
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2007, 11:00:53 pm »
Great Lakes Region (Adjusted through Wed. games)

    Team               Overall      In-Region (%)        QoWI (May be missing changes in opp.'s win % levels)

1. Lake Erie            23-2          19-1  (.950)      10.600 (Hosts Hilbert Fri.- AMCC Semis)
2. Wooster             23-3          18-2  (.900)      10.000 (Hosts Wabash Fri.- NCAC semis
3. John Carroll        18-8          17-6  (.739)      10.130 (Plays B-W Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
4. Hope                  22-3          15-3  (.833)        9.667 (Hosts Adrian Fri.- MIAA semis)
5. Ohio Northern    19-7          14-7  (.667)        9.619 (lost to Otterbein in OAC quarters)
6. Wittenberg         22-4          17-4  (.810)        9.476 (Plays OWU Fri.- NCAC semis)
    Capital               17-8           17-8  (.680)        9.520 (Hosts Otterbein Fri.- OAC semis)
   Baldwin-Wallace  18-8           15-6  (.714)        9.381 (Plays JCU Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
   Westminster       18-7           16-3  (.842)        9.737 (Hosts Grove City Thurs.- PrAC semis)

Edit:  Added matchups; fixed Wittenberg's QoWI; Added Westminster, per David's post below.
 
« Last Edit: February 22, 2007, 12:51:40 am by scotsbrod »

Offline sac

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 13512
  • Karma: +2421/-1890
  • Rejoice in Hope
    • View Profile
    • Speaking of Alaska - my basketball blog
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2007, 11:05:42 pm »
Looking at that........if everyone wins who's supposed to, we might not get any Great Lakes Pool C's. :-\

A Capital loss in the next round drops everyone's qowi by 4pts as they drop below .667........that would hurt any OAC's teams chances.
Give to Hope
Twitter

Now with 35.3% less posting

Offline kiltedbryan

  • All-Conference
  • ****
  • Posts: 864
  • Karma: +61/-12
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2007, 11:26:03 pm »
Yes.  I think Wittenberg, Capital, and Baldwin-Wallace all have to plan on winning the Pool A bid to make the tournament.  Witt's QoWI really hurts them, and a win over OWU (+13) coupled with a loss to Wooster (+7) only raises their QoWI to 9.523.  If Capital loses, it's 9.435.  Plus, going 1-1 lowers their in-region winning percentage to 18-5 (.783)- still good, but not incredible.

Offline wooscotsfan

  • All-Region
  • *****
  • Posts: 1984
  • Karma: +121/-244
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2007, 12:09:59 am »
Yes.  I think Wittenberg, Capital, and Baldwin-Wallace all have to plan on winning the Pool A bid to make the tournament.  Witt's QoWI really hurts them, and a win over OWU (+13) coupled with a loss to Wooster (+7) only raises their QoWI to 9.523.  If Capital loses, it's 9.435.  Plus, going 1-1 lowers their in-region winning percentage to 18-5 (.783)- still good, but not incredible.

scotsbrod and sac - I agree with both of you that the Great Lakes region probably won't get any Pool C bids this year unless Lake Erie, Wooster, John Carroll or Hope fail to win a Pool A bid.  >:(

As smedindy noted, the current Great Lakes Region rankings show why the QoWI is such a miserable system.  My guess is that #6 Wittenberg would beat the pants off #1 Lake Erie on a neutral floor by 20 points or more....yet the Tigers are at risk of not even making the dance because the stupid QoWI methodology rewards teams like Lake Erie for beating up on all the cupcakes in the AMCC conference.

Last year, Witt beat Lake Erie by 36 points in the first round of the NCAA tourney and I like to see that matchup again (same result likely) but the NCAA selection committee probably will prevent that scenario.

As David's excellent analysis (QoWI list) on the Pool C board demonstrates, the 19 Pool C bids will likely go to teams that have a QoWI of 9.70 or higher



Offline kiltedbryan

  • All-Conference
  • ****
  • Posts: 864
  • Karma: +61/-12
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2007, 12:16:24 am »
Last year, Witt beat Lake Erie by 36 points in the first round of the NCAA tourney and I like to see that matchup again (same result likely) but the NCAA selection committee probably will prevent that scenario.

I think this year the Lake Erie-Wittenberg matchup would be closer.  Witt is not quite the final-four bound team it was last year, and Lake Erie is probably somewhat better this year than they were last year.

That said, I entirely agree with you that the other GL regionally ranked teams would probably all beat Lake Erie.  Erie would probably be lucky to go 1-4 in a round robin against them.  They will need to beat someone in the NCAAs to be given national credibility.

Offline David Collinge

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 6938
  • Karma: +785/-123
  • Good advice.
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2007, 12:41:53 am »
ONU is done.  Mark it down.

Don't forget about Westminster (PA) in this discussion.  They're at 9.737 on QoWI, and have an in-region win % of .842.  They're in a Pool B conference, but it looks like they might miss out on a B bid, which makes them eligible for a C.  As of this moment, I think they're ahead of ONU and quite close to Witt--and they can win out and still be a 'C' candidate (unlike the other teams, who are only 'C' candidates if they lose again.)
« Last Edit: February 22, 2007, 01:03:47 am by David Collinge »

Offline imderekpoe

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 463
  • Karma: +39/-4
    • View Profile
Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2007, 12:48:10 am »
Great Lakes Region (Adjusted through Wed. games)

    Team               Overall      In-Region (%)        QoWI (May be missing changes in opp.'s win % levels)

1. Lake Erie            23-2          19-1  (.950)      10.600 (Hosts Hilbert Fri.- AMCC Semis)
2. Wooster             23-3          18-2  (.900)      10.000 (Hosts Wabash Fri.- NCAC semis
3. John Carroll        18-8          17-6  (.739)      10.130 (Plays B-W Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
4. Hope                  22-3          15-3  (.833)        9.667 (Hosts Adrian Fri.- MIAA semis)
5. Ohio Northern    19-7          14-7  (.667)        9.619 (lost to Otterbein in OAC quarters)
6. Wittenberg         22-4          17-4  (.810)        9.476 (Plays OWU Fri.- NCAC semis)
    Capital               17-8           17-8  (.680)        9.520 (Hosts Otterbein Fri.- OAC semis)
   Baldwin-Wallace  18-8           15-6  (.714)        9.381 (Plays JCU Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)


Edit:  Added Friday matchups; fixed Wittenberg's QoWI.
 

I think that Wooster's QOWI went up to 10.1 with Calvin's win, which raised their in-region record to .667.  Hope's must have gone up as well, but I haven't done those calculations.