Great Lakes Region

[kiltedbryan]

I added Westminster to the listing I made above- David's right, they appear to be in better shape than most GL teams for a C.  I didn't realize that Pool B teams can become Pool C teams.  Gotta read that handbook closer!

[kiltedbryan]

I think that Wooster's QOWI went up to 10.1 with Calvin's win, which raised their in-region record to .667.  Hope's must have gone up as well, but I haven't done those calculations.

Wooster QoWI:  200/20 games + 2 (for Calvin's increase) = 202/20, 10.100

Hope QoWI:  174/18 games + 6 (Calvin increase x 3 meetings) = 180/18, 10.000

[kiltedbryan]

Great Lakes Region (Adjusted through Wed. games)

Team            Overall      In-Region (%)       QoWI (Double-checking welcome!)

Lake Erie            23-2          19-1  (.950)      10.600 (Hosts Hilbert Fri.- AMCC Semis)
Wooster             23-3          18-2  (.900)      10.100 (Hosts Wabash Fri.- NCAC semis
Hope                  22-3          15-3  (.833)      10.000 (Hosts Adrian Fri.- MIAA semis)
John Carroll        18-8          17-6  (.739)      10.130 (Plays B-W Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
Westminster      18-7          16-3  (.842)        9.737 (Hosts Grove City Thurs.- PrAC semis)
Wittenberg         22-4          17-4  (.810)        9.476 (Plays OWU Fri.- NCAC semis)
Ohio Northern    19-7          14-7  (.667)        9.619 (lost to Otterbein in OAC quarters)
Capital               17-8          17-8  (.680)        9.520 (Hosts Otterbein Fri.- OAC semis)
Baldwin-Wallace 18-8          15-6  (.714)        9.381 (Plays JCU Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)

[kiltedbryan]

cmhscots,

I did make the adjustments to Wooster and Hope's QoWI for Calvin's increase, but the extra points may be short-lived, because unless Calvin wins the MIAA Tournament, the extra in-region loss will push them back below the .667 threshold- going 1-1 leaves Calvin at 13-7, .650%.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I have Calvin at 13-6 currently, so if they reach the finals they'd be 14-6, and could only fall to 14-7 (still .667).  If they lose in the semis, they fall below .667, but then 3state has reached .667!

If my numbers are correct, Hope looks pretty darn safe.  Win out, they are of course AQ.  Lose to Calvin, their QOWI is up enough to make them a pretty certain C.  Lose to Tri State, they win the AQ since 3State is ineligible.  Their only danger would be lose in the semis to Adrian, but since they led (in Adrian) by 57-14 before coasting to whatever the final was, I'd say Hope is a lock.

[David Collinge]

This thought just got me out of bed...

A non-trivial aspect of ONU's loss to Otterbein tonight is that they will surely now not be among the six "ranked" teams in the final Super-Secret GL ranking.  That improves Wooster and Wittenberg in "results vs. regionally ranked opponents" (by one game each,) and this is one of the five primary selection/ranking criterion.  Furthermore, it significantly hurts JCU and Capital in the same criterion, as both teams swept the PBs.

Good night again. 

[Pat Coleman]

LOL, that's awesome that you came back to post that.

[Toph]

This thought just got me out of bed...

A non-trivial aspect of ONU's loss to Otterbein tonight is that they will surely now not be among the six "ranked" teams in the final Super-Secret GL ranking.  That improves Wooster and Wittenberg in "results vs. regionally ranked opponents" (by one game each,) and this is one of the five primary selection/ranking criterion.  Furthermore, it significantly hurts JCU and Capital in the same criterion, as both teams swept the PBs.

Good night again. 

Wow.  I don't know if my brain ever works this hard.

[sac]

Fun With QOWI

Since Hope is the only viable Pool C candidate from the MIAA, I can't see a 7 in-region loss Calvin having even the remotist of chances.


Lets say Tri-State win the MIAA Tournament Championship

Regardless of who TSU beat in the final Hope would get the automatic bid by being the MIAA's regular season champ, talk about a stressless matchup if they face TSU.

Hope's QOWI would like this

TSU win over Hope.............9.8
TSU win over Adrian...........9.58

Damaging for seeding purposes, but the Dutchmen would be dancing which is what we in Holland want.

What if Adrian wins the MIAA Tournament.

Hope's QOWI would look like this

Adrian win over Tri-State........9.36
Adrian win over Calvin............9.36

Either of these results would be the death of Hope's Pool C chances.
So you can see, Adrian winning Friday would put Hope in the already known postition of having to root against the Bulldogs.

What if Calvin wins the MIAA Tournanment.......gets a bit interesting here

Hope QOWI
Calvin win over Hope.............9.9---respectable, but firmly on the bubble as a Pool C candidate.

Calvin win over Adrian...........10.21--- respectable, but probably enough to get a C bid, but would likely be one the last C's taken.

What if Hope wins the MIAA Tournament.........
Obviously the auto-bid goes to Hope, but QOWI would still factor in seeding and pairings, and possibly hosting although doubtfull Hope's in that position.

Hope win over TSU........9.9------not real impressive for seeding, but hey it would be a stressfree game, since Hope would be in win or lose

Hope win over Calvin......10.11----looks good, might get a 3 or 4 seed,

.......wait a minute lets back things up here

Hope over Calvin  = 10.11
Calvin over Adrian = 10.21

So, let me get this straight, its more beneficial to Hope's QOWI to lose to Adrian and root for Calvin to beat Adrian ? 

Lets also keep in mind Wheaton is still alive, winning the CCIW tournament would add .1 to all of Hope's QOWI calculation.

So    Go Wheaton,  Go Calvin ?

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Sac, thanks for that fascinating list of scenarios.
And that list proves to me why the QoWI is such a mess. Hope is somehow better of losing tomorrow as long as Calvin wins out than it is if it wins out or if it wins tomorrow then loses Saturday. That is absolutely ridiculous! What a mess!

[Flying Dutch Fan]

sac

- I love it, you always seem to find these little things that once again point out how futile the NCAA and in this case QOWI are.  

and I hate the thought that (strictly focusing on QOWI) we should lose tomorrow and then root for Calvin.  I don't know which would be worse or harder to take - losing tomorrow or rooting for Calvin.  

It's just so ridiculous that a loss could provide a better seeding thatn 2 wins (of course QOWI isn't the only criteria)

[Civic Minded]

Sac, thanks for that fascinating list of scenarios.
And that list proves to me why the QoWI is such a mess. Hope is somehow better of losing tomorrow as long as Calvin wins out than it is if it wins out or if it wins tomorrow then loses Saturday. That is absolutely ridiculous! What a mess!

I think I might puke!    (Anyone have a green-faced smiley?)

[kiltedbryan]

Great Lakes Region (Adjusted through Wed. games)

Team            Overall      In-Region (%)       QoWI (Double-checking welcome!)

Lake Erie            23-2          19-1  (.950)      10.600 (Hosts Hilbert Fri.- AMCC Semis)
Wooster             23-3          18-2  (.900)      10.100 (Hosts Wabash Fri.- NCAC semis
Hope                  22-3          15-3  (.833)      10.000 (Hosts Adrian Fri.- MIAA semis)
John Carroll        18-8          17-6  (.739)      10.130 (Plays B-W Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)
Westminster*    18-7          16-3  (.842)        9.737 (Hosts Grove City Thurs.- PrAC semis)
Wittenberg         22-4          17-4  (.810)        9.476 (Plays OWU Fri.- NCAC semis)
Ohio Northern    19-7          14-7  (.667)        9.619 (lost to Otterbein in OAC quarters)
Capital               17-8          17-8  (.680)        9.520 (Hosts Otterbein Fri.- OAC semis)
Baldwin-Wallace 18-8          15-6  (.714)        9.381 (Plays JCU Fri. @ Capital- OAC semis)

* Westminster is now likely a Pool B selection, with the sudden expansion of Pool B and the shrinking Pool C.

[HopeConvert]

You absolutely have to be joking. Losing to Adrian could actually increase their QoWI. We're not in Kansas anymore.

Good work sac.

[AndersDY]

Would that difference in QOWI from letting Adrian win and lose to Calvin have more of an effect than the obvious addition of an in-region loss, however? QOWI is weighed against the regional record still, correct?