Author Topic: Great Lakes Region  (Read 226685 times)

Offline sac

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #30 on: February 22, 2007, 09:35:56 pm »
Would that difference in QOWI from letting Adrian win and lose to Calvin have more of an effect than the obvious addition of an in-region loss, however? QOWI is weighed against the regional record still, correct?

The in-region loss would definately balance it out............but the fact that losing helps this supposedly important number in the selection, seeding and pairings considerations is just absolutely looney!
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Offline ziggy

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2007, 09:52:07 pm »
Would that difference in QOWI from letting Adrian win and lose to Calvin have more of an effect than the obvious addition of an in-region loss, however? QOWI is weighed against the regional record still, correct?

The voters clearly prefer John Carroll's better QOWI to Wittenberg's better regional W-L record
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Offline sac

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2007, 09:53:55 pm »
Would that difference in QOWI from letting Adrian win and lose to Calvin have more of an effect than the obvious addition of an in-region loss, however? QOWI is weighed against the regional record still, correct?

The voters clearly prefer John Carroll's better QOWI to Wittenberg's better regional W-L record

There's other criteria there, like record vs ranked teams, head-to-head.  If I remember an earlier post somewhere JCU graded out better..........but ONU was included in the rankings.....they'll surely drop now.
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Offline kiltedbryan

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #33 on: February 22, 2007, 10:04:21 pm »
I have Calvin at 13-6 currently, so if they reach the finals they'd be 14-6, and could only fall to 14-7 (still .667).  If they lose in the semis, they fall below .667, but then 3state has reached .667!

If my numbers are correct, Hope looks pretty darn safe.  Win out, they are of course AQ.  Lose to Calvin, their QOWI is up enough to make them a pretty certain C.  Lose to Tri State, they win the AQ since 3State is ineligible.  Their only danger would be lose in the semis to Adrian, but since they led (in Adrian) by 57-14 before coasting to whatever the final was, I'd say Hope is a lock.

D3Hoops has Calvin at 12-6.  Does either of the Carthage/Wheaton games count for Calvin?  Neither is marked as in-region on their results page.

Offline KnightSlappy

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2007, 10:09:18 pm »
D3Hoops has Calvin at 12-6.  Does either of the Carthage/Wheaton games count for Calvin?  Neither is marked as in-region on their results page.

This is for my fellow MIAAers

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Online Mr. Ypsi

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #35 on: February 22, 2007, 10:13:07 pm »
I have Calvin at 13-6 currently, so if they reach the finals they'd be 14-6, and could only fall to 14-7 (still .667).  If they lose in the semis, they fall below .667, but then 3state has reached .667!

If my numbers are correct, Hope looks pretty darn safe.  Win out, they are of course AQ.  Lose to Calvin, their QOWI is up enough to make them a pretty certain C.  Lose to Tri State, they win the AQ since 3State is ineligible.  Their only danger would be lose in the semis to Adrian, but since they led (in Adrian) by 57-14 before coasting to whatever the final was, I'd say Hope is a lock.

D3Hoops has Calvin at 12-6.  Does either of the Carthage/Wheaton games count for Calvin?  Neither is marked as in-region on their results page.

You are correct - I used the same source, but must have miscounted.

KS, the 'dead horse' was unfair - my arithmetic was in question, not the regional nature of games!

Offline ziggy

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2007, 10:14:34 pm »
D3Hoops has Calvin at 12-6.  Does either of the Carthage/Wheaton games count for Calvin?  Neither is marked as in-region on their results page.

This is for my fellow MIAAers



To determine whether or not Wheaton or Carthage are in-region for Hope and Calvin there are some questions you need to ask yourself

1.  What year is this?
2.  What mapping software are you using?
3.  Is a ferry available?
4.  Is it opposite day?

If you have any problems answering any of those questions, revert to flipping a coin.  Or, you can never go wrong by answering, "maybe"
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Offline sac

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #37 on: February 22, 2007, 10:20:14 pm »
Carthage and Wheaton are not in region for Calvin .........this year :P
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Offline kiltedbryan

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #38 on: February 22, 2007, 10:58:17 pm »
I'm going to attemp a breakdown of the GL Pool C contenders on almost all the primary criteria.  I'm going to use Wednesday's regional rankings for the "results vs. regionally ranked teams;" however, I am going to use italics where ONU falling from the regional rankings will affect things, or where Capital joining them would.  I bolded the italics where something must change (ie. JCU and BW play tomorrow night). 

Also, since I find it hard to consider all the possible results vs. common regional opponents, and I assume this criterion is best evaluated between two particular teams, and not in a general sense, I left it out of my stats.

The Five Primary Criteria:

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-Wins-Index (only contests versus regional competition)
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams

Taking the contenders (arranged by win %; each team has two lines of info):

Team                    Region Win % (Record)            QoWI
In-region head-to-head results; Results vs. regionally ranked teams (Wed. rankings)

Lake Erie                      .950 (19-1)                           10.600
No head-to-head results with Pool C contenders; No results vs. regionally ranked teams

Wooster                       .900 (18-2)                           10.100
Witt: 1-1, ONU 0-1; 1-2 vs. regionally ranked teams

Hope                            .833 (15-3)                           10.000
No head-to-head results with Pool C contenders; no results vs. regionally ranked teams

Wittenberg                   .810  (17-4)                           9.476
Woo: 1-1, ONU 0-1, Capital 1-0; 1-2 vs. regionally ranked teams

Westminster                .800 (16-4)                            9.450
No head-to-head results with Pool C contenders; no results vs. regionally ranked teams

John Carroll                 .739 (17-6)                           10.130
ONU: 2-0, Capital: 1-1, B-W: 0-2; 2-0 vs. regionally ranked teams

Baldwin-Wallace           .714 (15-6)                            9.381
ONU: 1-1, Capital: 1-1, JCU: 2-0; 3-1 vs. regionally ranked teams

Capital                        .680 (17-8)                             9.520
ONU: 2-0, B-W: 1-1, JCU: 1-1; 3-1 vs. regionally ranked teams

Ohio Northern             .667 (14-7)                             9.619
Woo: 1-0, Witt 1-0, Capital: 0-2, B-W: 1-1, JCU: 0-2; 2-2 vs. regionally ranked teams

Offline Flying Dutch Fan

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #39 on: February 23, 2007, 08:33:41 am »
scotsbrod - it looks like there is something amiss in your QOWI for Hope.  According to the QOWI posted by Pat yesterday, Hope should be at 9.667.  I'm assuming this is due to Carthage's loss to Wheaton, which put them under .667 in region for the year.
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #40 on: February 23, 2007, 08:58:13 am »
Stevens Tech lost, so there goes another "C". Stevens Tech, Messiah, Guilford...any other 'locks' for a "C"??

What this means is that the GL may have some issues.

Offline hopefan

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #41 on: February 23, 2007, 10:32:17 am »
Smed - don't forget about the UAA teams - loser of Wash U and Chicago tomorrow would be a lock, Rochester, Brandeis Rochester all under consideration.

Offline David Collinge

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #42 on: February 23, 2007, 11:03:55 am »
I haven't looked at Stevens or Messiah, but I don't think Guilford is a lock.  I do think Oshkosh is, though, and so is the loser of Saturday's Stevens Point/La Crosse game.

Offline ScotsFan

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #43 on: February 23, 2007, 11:15:34 am »
I haven't looked at Stevens or Messiah, but I don't think Guilford is a lock.  I do think Oshkosh is, though, and so is the loser of Saturday's Stevens Point/La Crosse game.
You think the WIAC is going to get 3 teams in David?  Not that they aren't deserving for 3 teams, it's just that most years the WIAC struggles to get 2 teams in (udeservedly so).  Personally, I'm not sold on LAX being a lock if they lose to SP.  If SP loses, I'd say the chances are better for 3 WIAC teams getting in as the Pointers would be a lock for a C.

Offline David Collinge

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Re: Great Lakes Region
« Reply #44 on: February 23, 2007, 11:30:02 am »
Yes, I think the WIAC gets three teams in, this year:

UW-La Crosse defeats UW-Oshkosh and advances to the WIAC finals against UW-Stevens Point.  I think this result removes any lingering doubt about whether the WIAC will get three teams in.  (The answer is 'yes.')  So there's two Pool C's by the wayside: one to Oshkosh, the other to Saturday's LaX/SP loser.

Oshkosh is now at .750 in-region and should end up with a QoWI of 10.041.  They beat Stevens Point and Grinnell (regionally ranked teams.)
If LaX loses to SP tomorrow, they'll be at .708 and 9.917, with wins over Oshkosh (3x!) and St. Thomas.

I think they're both in.  Oh, and so is Stevens Point. ;)

Compare them to Guilford, who finishes the season with .833 in-region win percentage (admittedly better than the WIACs) and a QoWI of something in the 9.6-9.7 range:

All right, bubble watchers.  Guilford was defeated by Bridgewater (South Region 7-15).  We need Bridgewater to lose in the next round (and bring their South Region record to 7-16 .304) to keep the Guilford defeat worth "1" QOWI point!

I calculate the new Guilford QOWI as 231 points divided 24 games = 9.625.