Author Topic: NJAC TALK  (Read 174867 times)

Offline NJBALLERZ

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1080 on: February 11, 2017, 07:57:16 am »
NJCU @ Ramapo today.... who ya got?!?! I cannot see Ramapo being swept in league, especially at home...

Roadrunners 79 Gothic Knights 70

Offline TheOsprey

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1081 on: February 11, 2017, 03:52:32 pm »
Stockton up 48 to 18 at the half. :o

The Ospreys beat Kean on a tip-in, last month. ::)

Offline TheOsprey

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1082 on: February 11, 2017, 07:13:29 pm »
NJCU @ Ramapo today.... who ya got?!?! I cannot see Ramapo being swept in league, especially at home...

Roadrunners 79 Gothic Knights 70

Sweet prediction NJB...!! Final 78-70 Ramapo

Tourney teams are set 1 thru 6.  Other than the one seed, I don't think any other seeds are locked in yet.

Online Knightstalker

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1083 on: February 11, 2017, 09:07:20 pm »
NJCU @ Ramapo today.... who ya got?!?! I cannot see Ramapo being swept in league, especially at home...

Roadrunners 79 Gothic Knights 70

Sweet prediction NJB...!! Final 78-70 Ramapo

Tourney teams are set 1 thru 6.  Other than the one seed, I don't think any other seeds are locked in yet.

I am not sure what the tie breaker would be if NJCU wins Wednesday against Stockton and TCNJ loses to Rutgers Newark.  I doubt that TCNJ will lose so they should get the 2 seed and again not sure of the tiebreaker if NJCU and Rowan tie for the third seed.  Rowan hosts Ramapo on Wednesday.  It will take someone besides Ramapo winning the tournament to get two NJAC teams into the NCAA's this year.  Again the league beat up on itself.

"In the end we will survive rather than perish not because we accumulate comfort and luxury but because we accumulate wisdom"  Colonel Jack Jacobs US Army (Ret).

Offline irapthor

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1084 on: February 12, 2017, 10:25:50 am »
Knightstalker,

With our loss at Ramapo, TCNJ clinched the No. 2 seed. Even if we end up tied, it goes to tiebreakers. TCNJ and NJCU split against each other, Ramapo and Rowan but TCNJ swept Stockton and NJCU lost at Stockton.

If NJCU beats Stockton Wednesday or Rowan loses to Ramapo, NJCU is the No. 3 seed no matter what. If NJCU loses at home to Stockton (where it has a 17-game home court regular season winning streak) AND Rowan beats Ramapo in Glassboro, then Rowan is the No. 3 and NJCU will fall to No. 4
Ira Thor
Director of Athletic Communications/NJCU...President of D3SIDA, CoSIDA Board of Directors...ESPN3 PBP announcer...New York/New Jersey public address announcer...Putrid golfer...Wine and scotch lover

Offline NJBALLERZ

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1085 on: February 15, 2017, 03:22:23 pm »
New regional rankings released... Ramapo taking over the 1 seed! Surprising NJCU is ranked over TCNJ when TCNJ has the stronger SOS and are above them in the league standings.

Final regular season games for the league tonight. Playoff seeds will be set and locked late this evening.

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1086 on: February 15, 2017, 04:03:47 pm »
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Let's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1087 on: February 15, 2017, 05:06:24 pm »

I'm leaving for Rowan in a few minutes - looking forward to a great environment there tonight.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1088 on: February 16, 2017, 12:29:13 pm »
New regional rankings released... Ramapo taking over the 1 seed! Surprising NJCU is ranked over TCNJ when TCNJ has the stronger SOS and are above them in the league standings.

Final regular season games for the league tonight. Playoff seeds will be set and locked late this evening.

I spoke about this on our Hoopsville special yesterday... not that surprising, actually. SOS is only one of five or six primarily criteria. You win the SOS it does NOT mean you get ranked ahead of someone else. You can see this across the board in all regions.

Win-loss% = NJCU .750 (18-6) / TCNJ .708 (17-7)
SOS = NJCU .499 / TCNJ .519
Head-to-Head = 1-1 (season split, so far)
Results vs Common Opponents = this could be long, so I will keep it at this: probably pretty even... TCNJ has one less loss in conference, so this might have gone TCNJ's favor
Results vs Regionally Ranked Opponents = NJCU 4-3 (.571) / TCNJ 3-4 (.429)

Some of these go TCNJ's way, some go NJCU's way. The SOS difference is not significant (below the .030 bench-mark we talk about a lot) - and no, being at .020 is not "close." The committee will not use their .030 = 2 games modifier until it hits .030... so being close doesn't count like in many things in life LOL.

vRRO is definitely in NJCU's favor. If I was making the decision on just this criteria, I would probably give it a nod to NJCU as well. There is secondary criteria listed (Non-D3 win/loss percentage and results vs common Non-D3 opponents) and not listed (committees try and dive into the data as much as they can). Not sure what the committee did specifically, but I am sure they got into the nitty gritty and went with NJCU. It may change two more times between now and selections.

And by the way, the league standings have nothing to do with the ranking or selection criteria one single bit.

Host of Hoopsville and The #WhyD3 Show. Broadcast Director, play-by-play and analyst for D3sports.com. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Offline gordonmann

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1089 on: February 16, 2017, 12:44:58 pm »
Quote
Some of these go TCNJ's way, some go NJCU's way. The SOS difference is not significant (below the .030 bench-mark we talk about a lot) - and no, being at .020 is not "close." The committee will not use their .030 = 2 games modifier until it hits .030... so being close doesn't count like in many things in life LOL.

You lost me here. Is the SOS difference (0.020) too small to be significant or no?

Offline hoya73

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1090 on: February 16, 2017, 12:46:18 pm »
Thanks for the deep dive, Dave.  I am always amazed about the level of knowledge you and D3 hoops has and your willingness to share it with us dopey fans.  I feel bad for TCNJ because, I believe, they have only lost 2 games when their starters have been healthy for the whole game.  But, obviously, every team has a story, and if everyone can get healthy for next week, they have every opportunity to earn it and that's totally fair.  Can't ask for more than that.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1091 on: February 16, 2017, 12:52:20 pm »
Quote
Some of these go TCNJ's way, some go NJCU's way. The SOS difference is not significant (below the .030 bench-mark we talk about a lot) - and no, being at .020 is not "close." The committee will not use their .030 = 2 games modifier until it hits .030... so being close doesn't count like in many things in life LOL.

You lost me here. Is the SOS difference (0.020) too small to be significant or no?

Yes.. it is not significant. It has to be at .030 to be significant. I was basically trying to say that some would argue .020 is "close" to .030... but the committee has said countless times it doesn't matter until it hits .030. ... .020 could shift in one game.
Host of Hoopsville and The #WhyD3 Show. Broadcast Director, play-by-play and analyst for D3sports.com. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Offline NJBALLERZ

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1092 on: February 16, 2017, 01:47:47 pm »
New regional rankings released... Ramapo taking over the 1 seed! Surprising NJCU is ranked over TCNJ when TCNJ has the stronger SOS and are above them in the league standings.

Final regular season games for the league tonight. Playoff seeds will be set and locked late this evening.

I spoke about this on our Hoopsville special yesterday... not that surprising, actually. SOS is only one of five or six primarily criteria. You win the SOS it does NOT mean you get ranked ahead of someone else. You can see this across the board in all regions.

Win-loss% = NJCU .750 (18-6) / TCNJ .708 (17-7)
SOS = NJCU .499 / TCNJ .519
Head-to-Head = 1-1 (season split, so far)
Results vs Common Opponents = this could be long, so I will keep it at this: probably pretty even... TCNJ has one less loss in conference, so this might have gone TCNJ's favor
Results vs Regionally Ranked Opponents = NJCU 4-3 (.571) / TCNJ 3-4 (.429)

Some of these go TCNJ's way, some go NJCU's way. The SOS difference is not significant (below the .030 bench-mark we talk about a lot) - and no, being at .020 is not "close." The committee will not use their .030 = 2 games modifier until it hits .030... so being close doesn't count like in many things in life LOL.

vRRO is definitely in NJCU's favor. If I was making the decision on just this criteria, I would probably give it a nod to NJCU as well. There is secondary criteria listed (Non-D3 win/loss percentage and results vs common Non-D3 opponents) and not listed (committees try and dive into the data as much as they can). Not sure what the committee did specifically, but I am sure they got into the nitty gritty and went with NJCU. It may change two more times between now and selections.

And by the way, the league standings have nothing to do with the ranking or selection criteria one single bit.

With the playoffs all set in stone, the two are very likely to matchup in the semi's so I'm sure whoever wins that game between the two of them will get the nod in the regional rankings and have the best shot, if any at all for an at large bid.

However, do not count out the Ospreys... Bittner is one of the best coach's in the league and he will get his guys ready for a battle in Jersey City on Saturday afternoon! PLAYOFF BAKSETBALL IS BACK AND I COULDN"T BE HAPPIER :)

Offline gordonmann

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1093 on: February 16, 2017, 04:18:30 pm »
Quote
Yes.. it is not significant. It has to be at .030 to be significant. I was basically trying to say that some would argue .020 is "close" to .030... but the committee has said countless times it doesn't matter until it hits .030. ... .020 could shift in one game.

Got it. Thanks.

Offline NJBALLERZ

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Re: NJAC TALK
« Reply #1094 on: February 18, 2017, 12:02:18 pm »
First round of the playoffs today!

Stockton at NJCU and MSU at Rowan both slated for a 3PM start.

Who ya got!?