2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

Started by PaulNewman, August 24, 2014, 02:13:42 PM

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Mr.Right

CMU of all the UAA bubble teams has the least wiggle room IMO.

PaulNewman

Chicago wins in 90th minute in horrid conditions.

Rochester and Emory game getting a bit nasty.

Mr.Right

Chicago gets two goals after the 82 minute. Big win for them and a showdown against Brandeis on Sunday for possibly 1st place and the AQ of the UAA

PaulNewman

Quote from: Mr.Right on October 31, 2014, 06:27:14 PM
CMU of all the UAA bubble teams has the least wiggle room IMO.

I think loser of Case @ CMU is toast.

Chicago in my opinion went from out to still with decent chance in those last 8 minutes and of course if they win the AQ it's moot point.

PaulNewman

Wow.  CMU ties it up under 10.  Remember Case was a bad PK call away from getting draw at Brandeis..

Great action in the UAA today.

PaulNewman

Emory finally scores a goal in the UAA.  Last 5 minutes are gonna be wild.

And going to OT in Pittsburgh.

Mr.Right

Emory defeats Rochester. Emory in pretty solid ground I think especially being #1 in South. Rochester now 7-5-3 with some good win against SLU, Brandeis and a tie against Oneonta but they only have two games left and I think one more loss and they will be done as a 8-6-3 record will not do it.

Flying Weasel

Quote from: wchandy22 on October 31, 2014, 05:47:33 PM
Quote from: Christan Shirk on October 30, 2014, 03:29:24 PM
D3soccer.com has been informed by the D-III Men's Soccer Committee that no .500 SOS threshold exists in order to be ranked.  Despite our request for an alternate explanation for Luther's drop from the No. 2 position in the first North Region rankings to unranked in the second weekly rankings, the Committee declined to provide any explanation on the grounds that the committee's conversations/discussions are intended to be confidential.


There are a few reasons why the committee would not want to explain its thought process with regards to regional rankings just one of those being the complexity involved with such decisions.  From what I have discerned, this process uses complex differential equations with unknown roots.  The two diagrams below highlight just some of the difficulties the committee is faced with when assigning these regional rankings.

Luther -- Regional Rankings (Oct. 22, 2014)
http://www.undisputedsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dart-Board-2.png

Luther -- Regional Rankings (Oct. 29, 2014)
http://www.undisputedsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/DART-BOARD-0.png

As they say, a picture speaks a thousand words!  I think that clears it all up for me.  Thanks, wchandy22! 

PaulNewman

Sounds like Soboff not playing for Brandeis.  0-0 at half at Wash U.

Case and CMU closing in on a draw although CMU pressing hard.  A draw probably hurts both teams.

Rochester has good chance to win last two at CMU and home with Case.

Case just missed on a great chance.

But even with 2 wins UR seems like a very borderline at-large.

Case and CMU is a draw.

PaulNewman

Brandeis ties up UWash with 41 secs left.  Going OT.  Brandeis was frustrated and fairly chippy with 18 fouls to 5 and 4 yellows, but they have a ton of talent on the field.  They dominated last 25 minutes.  I don't think there is any NESCAC team they can't handle this year, and Tufts might be only one that can match them talent-wise but I doubt they have the resolve that Brandeis does.

PaulNewman

#535
Brandeis wins it in OT....really dominating last 35 minutes with wave after wave up the field and Wash U maintaining no possession at all.  Wash U must be the hardest luck decent team in the country...a ton of close losses but they were outclassed by Brandeis.  Judges score on a free kick and beautiful header from defender Robbie Lynch who is only 5'8 but consistently beats 6'2 kids for headers and has long youth, high school, and college careers for big moments.  Brandeis has a toughness and edge this year that should serve them well.  They may lose a tight one in the tournament but it won't be because they are intimidated or overpowered physically.

Addendum:  And Soboff did enter game with 16 min left and played rest of match from there.  They must have been trying to save him and he did make a difference with some penetrating passes right on target.

Brandeis is a legit final four and national title contender.

PaulNewman

Ryan H's column reminded of the controversial Messiah goal against Alvernia.  I meant to note this the next day after the game that the Alvernia game recap made no excuse and indeed made no mention of what happened.  On the other hand, the Messiah recap reads very self-consciously regarding the play...

From the website...."Alvernia reacted in shock to the goal, as they perhaps expected a whistle from the center official to restart the play. But in contrast, Ramirez quickly placed the ball as the official looked on in approval." 

Not sure I buy the part about the referee "looking on in approval" for Ramirez to go ahead and play.  A heady play no doubt but clearly taking advantage over confusion that was about his own injured player.  The video clip is on the website too, and the video clip conveniently skips 5-10 secs to (seemingly) minimize how it really went down, and even then you still see the injured player almost go back to the ground as Ramirez as about to take the kick.

Flying Weasel

Quote from: NCAC New England on October 31, 2014, 09:03:29 PM
Ryan H's column reminded of the controversial Messiah goal against Alvernia.  I meant to note this the next day after the game that the Alvernia game recap made no excuse and indeed made no mention of what happened.  On the other hand, the Messiah recap reads very self-consciously regarding the play...

From the website...."Alvernia reacted in shock to the goal, as they perhaps expected a whistle from the center official to restart the play. But in contrast, Ramirez quickly placed the ball as the official looked on in approval." 

Not sure I buy the part about the referee "looking on in approval" for Ramirez to go ahead and play.  A heady play no doubt but clearly taking advantage over confusion that was about his own injured player.  The video clip is on the website too, and the video clip conveniently skips 5-10 secs to (seemingly) minimize how it really went down, and even then you still see the injured player almost go back to the ground as Ramirez as about to take the kick.

I'm a Messiah fan and I watched the video feed live.  As it happened, I was surprised by the quick kick only because the down player was initially almost in the way, but he did get up as Ramirez positioned himself  and took the kick.  Messiah has been looking for and taking quick kicks of late, so no surprise there. It was only afterwards that I wondered if the defense was not ready out of concern for the downed player or at least expectation that he might need attention.  But they showed the replay shortly afterwards and I didn't see any evidence that the defense was relaxing on account of the downed player and he really didn't stay down long at all.  The defense seemed to be focused on and busy getting positioned.  But they probably were expecting the whole song-and-dance of setting up the wall closer than 10-yds, Messiah asking the ref for 10-yards, the ref halting play and marching off 10-yds, returning to his position and finally blowing his whistle.  Alvernia even had a player standing right in front of the ball directing the positioning of the wall.  But Messiah never asked the referee for 10 yards nor did the referee ever halt play for the downed player.  The Alvernia announcers were in shock and claimed that a free kick requires a set amount of time and that both teams need to be set.  That was news to me as I thought that as long as there's been no whistle to signal a stop in play, that the kicking team could take the kick as soon as the ball was stopped and positioned to the referee's satisfaction.  Only if the kicking team asks the referee to enforce the 10-yard distance would the option of taking the kick be lost until after the referee's whistle, right?

You can watch the game on the Alvernia site: http://athletics.alvernia.edu/watch/?Archive=42  The foul occurs at the 2:26:00 mark, however to jump there you may have to watch up to 15 minutes of commercials (first time it let me jump there after one commercial, the second time it was 15 minutes of commercials).

PaulNewman

I'm going to disagree with you on this one, FW.  I won't disagree that the referee didn't stop play (he should have) or that Messiah made a smart play given the situation, but there is no way Alvernia wasn't at least confused and hesitant because of the injured player (and may well have been waiting for a card).  They had proven earlier that they knew how to stand in front of the ball to prevent a quick kick.   And while the Messiah player gingerly got to his feet he almost went down again.  He clearly was not OK and this is demonstrated by watching the video after the goal and the injured player does not celebrate at all and has trouble walking off the field.  I'll put it this way...it was not the ending that the game deserved.  We can blame the ref instead of Messiah.

Mr.Right

I still feel Brandeis is not a Final 4 team. They will most likely get the easiest 1st and 2nd round pod in the country. They will also get to stay on their turf until the Final 4. They play excellent on their turf but until they can go on the road and win on grass against a Nescac then I will wait to anoint them the New England region champion and representative to the Final 4. I realize this year and last year are very different but Brandeis is basically the same team as last year where they lost to Williams at Amherst and at Tufts. They most likely will have to beat both Amherst and Tufts in the sweet 16 and Final 8. Even at home that will prove to difficult