FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

Started by admin, August 16, 2005, 05:04:00 AM

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USee

Greg,

Can you PM me too? I'd love more info about NPU recruits! Any Samoa trips this year?

Gregory Sager

Quote from: 79jaybird on June 24, 2015, 10:24:17 AM
I would put Washington at the level of a Elmhurst/Carthage/Millikin tier.   They are not (IMO) the first tier which would include NC/Wheaton, nor second tier  (IWU/AC  historically),  and amongst the EC/CAR/MU middle of the pack tier that once in awhile gets a good squad.

I think that you're hard-pressed to prove that Carthage and Millikin belong in a "middle-of-the-pack tier" within the CCIW, Mark. Carthage, which has finished with a losing CCIW record and a second-division finish in each of the past five seasons, has gone 2-5, 0-7, 1-6, and 2-5 over the past four years in CCIW play. And Millikin? You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last season in which the Big Blue ended up on the positive side of the CCIW ledger and finished as high as a fourth-place tie. In this decade they've gone 1-6, 1-6, 2-5, 2-5, and 1-6. Tellingly, both Carthage and Millikin have lost their last two contests against traditional CCIW doormat North Park -- and last year's games against the Vikings (NPU 26, MU 7 and NPU 36, CC 14) weren't close.

I think that you're seriously underestimating your Bluejays in terms of how CCIW programs have lined up over the course of this decade. Elmhurst has consistently performed even with, or better than, Augustana, and the Bluejays are only one game off of Illinois Wesleyan's pace thus far over the course of the Teens -- and EC can claim a CCIW co-championship and a playoff win in this decade, which IWU can't.

If there's a middle-of-the-pack tier over recent seasons in CCIW play, it has consisted of Illinois Wesleyan, Elmhurst, and Augustana.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

kiko

Quote from: Gregory Sager on June 25, 2015, 05:04:14 PM
Quote from: 79jaybird on June 24, 2015, 10:24:17 AM
I would put Washington at the level of a Elmhurst/Carthage/Millikin tier.   They are not (IMO) the first tier which would include NC/Wheaton, nor second tier  (IWU/AC  historically),  and amongst the EC/CAR/MU middle of the pack tier that once in awhile gets a good squad.

I think that you're hard-pressed to prove that Carthage and Millikin belong in a "middle-of-the-pack tier" within the CCIW, Mark. Carthage, which has finished with a losing CCIW record and a second-division finish in each of the past five seasons, has gone 2-5, 0-7, 1-6, and 2-5 over the past four years in CCIW play. And Millikin? You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last season in which the Big Blue ended up on the positive side of the CCIW ledger and finished as high as a fourth-place tie. In this decade they've gone 1-6, 1-6, 2-5, 2-5, and 1-6. Tellingly, both Carthage and Millikin have lost their last two contests against traditional CCIW doormat North Park -- and last year's games against the Vikings (NPU 26, MU 7 and NPU 36, CC 14) weren't close.

I think that you're seriously underestimating your Bluejays in terms of how CCIW programs have lined up over the course of this decade. Elmhurst has consistently performed even with, or better than, Augustana, and the Bluejays are only one game off of Illinois Wesleyan's pace thus far over the course of the Teens -- and EC can claim a CCIW co-championship and a playoff win in this decade, which IWU can't.

If there's a middle-of-the-pack tier over recent seasons in CCIW play, it has consisted of Illinois Wesleyan, Elmhurst, and Augustana.

To put some numbers behind this, here are cumulative regular season records over the past five years:

North Central 33-2 / 45-5
Wheaton 29-6 / 43-7
-----
Ill. Wesleyan 21-14 / 35-15
Elmhurst 20-15 / 30-20
Augustana 17-18 / 23-27
-----
Carthage 8-27 / 18-32
Millikin 7-28 / 18-32
North Park 5-30 / 11-39

If you go back six years, it looks like this:

North Central 39-3 / 53-7
Wheaton 33-9 / 50-10
-----
Ill. Wesleyan 27-15 / 44-16
-----
Elmhurst 21-21 / 34-26
Augustana 21-21 / 29-31
-----
Carthage 12-30 / 25-35
Millikin 10-32 / 24-36
North Park 5-37 / 12-48

Couple of thoughts on this:

1. You can pick any arbitrary timeline you want to look at something like this, and these two are actually a great example of how a story might look different depending on what you look at.  Adding in the sixth year, when Illinois Wesleyan went 6-1/9-1 and Elmhurst went 1-6/4-6, will create separation and show the Titans on a tier above Elmhurst and Augie.  In reality, the Titans have been an elevator team that has sometimes been in the North Central/Wheaton tier (three 6-1/9-1 seasons in the past six) and sometimes in that middle tier (9-12/17-13 in the other three seasons).  And Elmhurst has been consistently in the 3-4 or 4-3 range in conference play, with one really good year and one really bad year in the past six.

2. That sixth year also starts to show some separation between North Central and Wheaton that is misleading as it was one of the two worst seasons the Wheaties have had, record-wise, in the past decade.

robertgoulet

Per an NCC twitter: 10th game has been scheduled. Hosting Wesley on 9/26.
You win! You always do!

USee


D3MAFAN

Quote from: USee on July 07, 2015, 04:53:01 PM
Wow. Big game. Way to go NCC.

Just got a big jolt. Can't wait for the season to start.

izzy stradlin

Quote from: robertgoulet on July 07, 2015, 04:51:21 PM
Per an NCC twitter: 10th game has been scheduled. Hosting Wesley on 9/26.

That's awesome.

I am always conflicted this time of year.   While I don't want summer to end, I can't wait for CCIW/D3fb.

wally_wabash

9/26 is turning out to be a seriously heavy weekend.  This NCC/Wesley game joins Wabash/Witt, the Tommie Johnnie game, Hopkins/Muhlenberg, and Montclair/Rowan.  Giant September weekend there. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

matblake

Quote from: robertgoulet on July 07, 2015, 04:51:21 PM
Per an NCC twitter: 10th game has been scheduled. Hosting Wesley on 9/26.

Nice job.  With Trine and Platteville, that's a good non-conference schedule.

New Tradition

Quote from: robertgoulet on July 07, 2015, 04:51:21 PM
Per an NCC twitter: 10th game has been scheduled. Hosting Wesley on 9/26.

WOW!!!  I'm a fan of this.  They're not messing around with the scheduling bringing in a big dog early like that.  The past shows mixed results with tough non-con opponents, with the Cards ending up on the losing side of it more often than they'd like.  It is also a pretty surefire way to determine whether or not the season will turn out the way the Cards hope.  Here is a list of early non-con losses and the result of the season over the past 10 years:

2014 - L to UWSP: did not make playoffs
2012 - L to UWLC: ousted in the second round by Linfield
2011 - L to Redlands: ousted in the second round by Wabash
2009 - L to Ohio Northern: did not make playoffs
2006 - L to Concordia WI: ousted in the second round by Capital

2010 and 2013 were, without question, the 2 best years in the history of the program.  The non-con schedule was pretty light in 2010, but they played 3 mid-tier UW schools in 2013.  In both seasons, the Cardinals rolled through their non-conference opponents.  Granted, none of the opponents are of the caliber of Wesley; however, if history holds, how the Cardinals handle the Wolves should be a pretty good indicator as to how the season will end for NCC.

NCC had better bring it--and I believe they will!
I am a NATIONAL Champion, and I refuse to lose!

2015 CCIW Pickem Champ
2015 WIAC Playoff Pickem Champ

kiko

Quote from: robertgoulet on July 07, 2015, 04:51:21 PM
Per an NCC twitter: 10th game has been scheduled. Hosting Wesley on 9/26.

I love this.  It obviously carries big risk if the Cardinals end up staring at Pool C rather than A, but even after the Platteville loss helped to scuttle the Cards' playoff chances last year, I would much rather see a test against a premier program than a Bethel/TN-type of non-D3 opponent.

(The obvious-though-never-easy elixir to any Pool C worries this might create is "win the AQ".)



AndOne

Over the past five years Wesley has won 56 games while losing only 10. North Central is 52-9 over that same period. 🏈 💥
Over the past ten seasons Wesley is 114-18, and North Central is 98-20.

Kovo

How Exciting!  Probably home for the playoffs again this year.  Let's see, we have a UWP team that is 16-5 in the WIAC over the past three years (I use three years since it is relevant to the guys wearing the uniforms), 16-2 if you take out UWW, on the road and follow it up with a Wesley team that has won 32 games the past 3 years. 

Kind of has the feeling of a split doesn't it?  Which of course means that the next seven games are effectively playoff games since the NCAA and pollsters don't ever give you credit for your schedule.  SOS is a joke as a playoff criteria---and we all know it, and witnessed it again last year.  But, what the heck, let's throw the new head coach into the fire and see if he gets burned.  Noboday in Cardinal nation will be displeased if he opens his career 2-1 (or 1-2 for that matter), will they?

I conceed that it is good for D3 Football and I understand why the Crusaders and Weenies are gushing all over this game---but excuse me while I contain my euphoria.  We should stop messing around and next year open with Mt. Union, Whitewater and Linfield all on the road-----that will show everyone who the big dog is!!

But as a Cardinal Alum let me read my talking point------"I'm so very excited about this quality nonconference game that will be a big challenge to our team and help us take the next step to our goal of an undefeated National Championship."

GO CARDINALS!

wesleydad

Just booked the flight to Chicago for Sept 26.  Going to fly out and back on Saturday, but it will still be fun.  Looking forward to a good game and a new school on the schedule.  Will be in touch as the game gets closer to find out about tailgating and such before the game.  We land at 830 so we should be at the school by 10.  Hoping to meet some new D3 posters.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Kovo on July 12, 2015, 11:03:47 AM
Kind of has the feeling of a split doesn't it?  Which of course means that the next seven games are effectively playoff games since the NCAA and pollsters don't ever give you credit for your schedule.  SOS is a joke as a playoff criteria---and we all know it, and witnessed it again last year.  But, what the heck, let's throw the new head coach into the fire and see if he gets burned.  Noboday in Cardinal nation will be displeased if he opens his career 2-1 (or 1-2 for that matter), will they?

Pollsters and the NCAA selection committee (I assume that's who you're talking about specifically) are different people with different goals.  Probably not fair to lump them in with one another.  The SOS isn't great, but not in the way you're saying.  We've seen instances where SOS gets teams into the field.  We've seen instances where it doesn't seem to help much at all.  The joke, I think, is the inconsistent application of the criteria.  But that's going to happen as different people cycle on and off the committee. 

I think, as more and more and more leagues play 8 and 9 game schedules, SOS as a selection criteria is going to be increasingly marginalized.  I'd really like to see the committee get away from just the naked SOS number (which has no context and doesn't mean much by itself) and pay more attention to who teams actually played- and more importantly- who teams actually beat.  And maybe they do to a degree- I'd just like to see that codified in the criteria a little better than it is currently. 

Specific to NCC in 2015 though- dude, the sky isn't falling.  NCC caught a tough break last year (D3football.com projected the Cardinals in, btw), but every year is different.  North Central got caught in a deep region and behind a couple of teams that had good 1-loss seasons.  In some years that same 8-2 record would be good enough for invitation.  Just not last year. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire