FB: Region 4 fan poll

Started by DPU3619, September 09, 2011, 09:17:13 AM

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wally_wabash

It took an entire season's worth of data, plus a couple of extra weeks in November, to reach a spot where I ranked Wabash ahead of Wittenberg.  And even then, it wasn't an easy decision.  After the Week 10 result between Wabash and Wittenberg, I certainly had Wabash below Wittenberg, despite many of the things I mentioned already being known (Wabash's statistical advantages in league play, the game play between Wabash and Witt, the non-league game against HSC).  It really took those playoff weeks to give a slight edge to Wabash in my mind.  I don't think any of us will be surprised when Wabash is ranked ahead of Wittenberg in the final top 25 of this season. 

The Franklin/IWU thing was a little different because it was so early in the season and I don't believe there was enough evidence available to overrule that h2h result.  Certainly, when teams play out a full season and teams start to lose more than once, then nuance and analysis like the one I went through when ranking Wabash/Witt come into play.  I guess it depends on how voters view their ballot, particularly early on the season- is it a snapshot of what we know of teams to this point or is it intended to be a predictor of future results?

Re: TCU/Baylor...I think TCU is the better side.  They gave it up in Waco because sports.  It happens.  If a poll wants to rank TCU, after the entire season, ahead of Baylor, I can get that.  But for any conference championship purposes and for any purpose where special gifts are allocated to a conference champion, all of that has to go to Baylor.  They played a round robin, finished with the same record, and Baylor beat TCU h2h.  They can be co-champions and that's fine (we've had shared league championships in the NCAC before), but whereas entrance to a tournament is involved, Baylor had to get preference.  They earned that much, even if they weren't the sexier team all year.
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Li'l Giant

I think the Witt/Wabash scenario is a bit like the TCU/Baylor scenario.

If TCU wins their bowl game and Baylor loses theirs I think it becomes relatively easy to say TCU is better and should be ranked higher. The resumes become more unequal at that point.

Which is analogous to using the 1st round playoff game results of Wabash and Witt as support for ranking Wabash higher.

"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

Quote from: sigma one on October 11, 2015, 10:46:46 AMI don't drink with the enemy, and I don't drink lattes at all, with anyone.

Sir Battlescars

Is this fan poll going to happen this year? I hope so. I know there were some issues last year, but it did spark some good conversation.

2014 NCAC Football Pick 'Em Champion!!

Dr. Acula

Seconded.  I always appreciated it too.  The voters did their homework and it made for good debate.

Mr. Ypsi

Agreed, though for twenty+ years only spots 2-10 have been open! ;D

Captain_Joe08

Once a Warrior always a Warrior.
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2014 MIAA Football Pick 'Em Champ
2014 WIAC Football Pick 'Em Regular Season Co-Champ
2014 National Confidence Playoff Champion
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wally_wabash

I checked in our old pal Wes last night and it sounds like he's going to be a bit too busy to be the NRFP hub for 2015.  It's definitely a thing I'd like to keep going (I think these fan polls are great surrogate regional rankings for at-large analysis before November).  I could compile ballots this fall, but would be happy to defer to one of the other voters if they want to. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Li'l Giant

Regardless of who is compiling (Thanks, Wally) I would like to return as a voter.
"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

Quote from: sigma one on October 11, 2015, 10:46:46 AMI don't drink with the enemy, and I don't drink lattes at all, with anyone.

Captain_Joe08

Quote from: Li'l Giant on August 28, 2015, 11:39:09 AM
Regardless of who is compiling (Thanks, Wally) I would like to return as a voter.

I am interested to be a voter.
Once a Warrior always a Warrior.
WLC Men's Tennis (2014 NACC Tournament Champs)
2014 MIAA Football Pick 'Em Champ
2014 WIAC Football Pick 'Em Regular Season Co-Champ
2014 National Confidence Playoff Champion
Milwaukee Brewers: 2018 NL Central Champions

USee

I'm back and better than ever.  ;)

wally_wabash

Almost there- I think I've got a couple of ballots outstanding.  Hopefully we'll be ready to put out a poll tonight. 

In the meantime, do we know if Chicago is in fact a North region team in 2015? 
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Pat Coleman

My guess would be no but we won't know for sure until the second or third version of the championships handbook comes out. :)
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wally_wabash

Fair assumption.  I say Chicago is fair game in the NRFP until the NCAA tells us otherwise.  Should make for a fun shakeup in week 4-5.   :)
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smedindy

Sorry, I'm out. I'll be less frequent here since work has me churning out new metrics and reports, and we're upgrading to a new alumni and online giving site that has a lot of implications for the data I use. Have fun!

wally_wabash

#1184
Preseason NRFP! 

1- Mount Union         70 points (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2- Wheaton               62 points (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3)
3- Wabash                50 points (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6)
4- John Carroll          48 points (2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6)
5- North Central        43 points (4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6)
6- Wittenberg           42 points (3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6)
7- Franklin               20 points (7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, x)
8- Heidelberg           14 points (7, 7, 8, 10, 10, 10, x)
9- Illinois Wesleyan   7 points (7, 8, x, x, x, x, x)
10- Adrian                6 points (8, 9, 10, x, x, x, x)

ORV:
Albion                      4 points (8, 10, x, x, x, x, x)
Chicago                   4 points (9, 9, x, x, x, x, x)
Ohio Northern          4 points (7, x, x, x, x, x, x)
DePauw                   3 points (9, 10, x, x, x, x, x)
Olivet                      3 points (9, 10, x, x, x, x, x)
Benedictine              3 points (8, x, x, x, x, x, x)
Mt. St. Joseph          2 points (9, x, x, x, x, x, x)

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi (abstained this week), NCF, and wally wabash...and USee  :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire