D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: jknezek on December 28, 2015, 01:40:59 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 28, 2015, 01:20:31 PM
Quote from: jknezek on December 28, 2015, 12:40:20 PM
So given each had an excellent unit, Wesley lost to the champion by 21, and beat two top 20 opponents on the road, I like the way that stacks up against a team that got buried by a not quite touching distance runner up by 31 and beat one top 20 program at home, in overtime.

There's that extra degree of separation again.  That's just a really, really thin string of logic here that unfortunately gets way too much emphasis after the tournament.  We could deep dive into how Wabash's game vs. UST wasn't as bad as it looked (and I can do it with quasi-common opponents!) and how Wesley's game vs. UMU wasn't as good as it looked (and I'm still in shock that so many people believe that was at all good), but we don't need to do that.  There's an entire season's worth of games and data from which to draw conclusions about Wesley and Wabash and Thomas More and whoever else without having the whole thing hinge on the margin of victory in the Mount Union vs. St. Thomas game.  I mean seriously- say it out loud.  Wesley is better than Wabash because Mount Union beat St. Thomas by a lot.  It doesn't make any sense.  And I'm not here to shill for Wabash over Wesley (I believe they earned a higher ranking, but whatever).  That's not what I was getting at.  My point here was that Wesley didn't earn #4.  You can only get to that number by blocking out a lot of things that happened to Wesley in 2015.

Only a Wabash fan could say this. You had 73 yards of offense in the first half and 6 punts and were down 17-0. You averaged 12 yards per possession. Even still, I'll give you the defense held you in some hope despite giving up a 98 yard, 15 play drive, but any way you look at it, that first half was a dominating performance by STU. The second half started with a Wabash missed field goal, a fumble, then Wabash gave up onside kick recovery, and then two punts to close out the third quarter. So special teams failed twice, offense failed twice, and defense failed to stop STU (3 straight STU scoring drives). 38-0. Every facet of the game was beaten in those three quarters and the game was over before you got 130 yards of offense. It was every bit as bad as it looked.

As for the rest, yes and no. I like them better at 5 than at 4. I think UWO probably should move up a slot. But I can't really find a reason to push UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton or TMC ahead of Wesley. But it is all really thin comparisons at this point.

This is when I hate that Wabash intersects with this area of the poll because any points I make about why Wabash should or shouldn't get ranked somewhere gets dismissed because of my screen name.  Oh well. 

So your version of events is one way to have seen Wabash vs. UST.  Here's what I saw:
- LGs struggled to go on offense in the first half (as you noted).  St. Thomas has an excellent defense, unless we're going to dismiss them also because they gave up a lot of points to Mount Union.  Frauds?  I don't think so, but I also don't judge teams based completely on their last game of the year, which is definitely happening in here. 

- Opening drive of the second half Wabash scores a touchdown!  Going to be 17-7 and we've got a ballgame...except holding.  No score.  Wabash's offense leaves the field to a field goal attempt- missed.  Bummer. 
- Wabash holds and forces a UST punt...but the punt is fumbled.  UST ball in the red zone.  Wabash holds UST to zero yards on three plays and forces a field goal...which Dowdle runs in on a fake. Touchdown UST.  24-0.
- Wabash gave away 15 yards after that fake field goal which put UST in prime position to onside kick, which they did and they recovered.  Another short field and another score and the game gets to 31-0 just like that. 

The game went from 17-7 to 31-0...in about 8 game minutes that included not one but two Wabash defensive stops and without Wabash's offense (who seemed to have figured something out there at halftime) ever touching the ball.  The thing just imploded after that hold took the touchdown away and even at 17-0, there was optimism based on that opening third quarter drive, but 8 minutes later and down 31, it was done.  But we shouldn't pretend that Wabash just got run over in that game.  The score margin was large, yes.  But Wabash didn't get run over.  Linfield got run over.  Mount Union even had more trouble with Roberts and Kaiser and that great OL than Wabash did. 

What does it all mean?   Nothing to most people.  I just think it would be fair to take those same gymnastics that people are doing to not only convince themselves that Wesley didn't get blown out by Mount Union, but that they should actually get extra credit for losing 56-35, and apply them to games like Wabash vs. UST which might be more layered than the final score indicates. 

In any case, I've accepted that this is where Wabash tops out until they get through to the semis.  I just don't see where it's obvious that Wesley ought to be ranked higher than Wabash (or Thomas More or Wheaton).  The only thing Wesley really did in 2015 that those teams didn't do is lose to a team they shouldn't have lost to- and that should count for a lot more than it is. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

jknezek

Part of why it gets disregarded is because anyone who watched that game without Wabash glasses on is going to laugh. You can't look at all those things you pointed out and say "well if we hadn't made 5 mistakes in a row, our special teams hadn't blown a field goal and a kickoff coverage, and if our defense hadn't given up scores, we would have been right there! Right there I tell you! We had it figured out on offense despite 6 punts in the first half and 3 plus a turnover on downs in the second!"

That's just Wabash tinted glasses. You got run over because you couldn't move the ball on offense, couldn't stop them on defense, couldn't stop making mistakes, and failed on special teams. What else is there to football? You had 1 drive, 1, against their first team defense and all of a sudden you've "figured it out"? The next time you got on the field on offense you went 11 yards in 5 plays and punted. Then 3 and out for 7 yards. Not exactly "figured it out territory."

There are three phases to football, and STU hammered Wabash in each one of them. That is the definition of getting run over. Final score was just confirmation of what happened.

STU was an excellent team. Second best in the country and while I really believe there is a lot of separation between 1 and 2 this year, it is nothing compared to the step down after STU. I think 3-8 are probably splitting hairs, though Linfield and UWW probably top it. I do get the argument after that, but I have no problem with the way it shook out. If Wabash can rest its laurels on an excellent defense, Wesley can rest theirs on an excellent offense. Both were rewarded in the polls.

wesleydad

The game went from 17-7 to 31-0...in about 8 game minutes that included not one but two Wabash defensive stops and without Wabash's offense (who seemed to have figured something out there at halftime) ever touching the ball.  The thing just imploded after that hold took the touchdown away and even at 17-0, there was optimism based on that opening third quarter drive, but 8 minutes later and down 31, it was done.  But we shouldn't pretend that Wabash just got run over in that game.  The score margin was large, yes.  But Wabash didn't get run over.  Linfield got run over.  Mount Union even had more trouble with Roberts and Kaiser and that great OL than Wabash did.

Wally, this looks a lot like the Wesley game with Mount.  28 - 14 with 6 mins to go in second quarter and then stuff happens and it is 49 - 14.  The only difference is that Wesley got to within 49 - 35 with the ball inside the 15 with 8 mins to go in the game.  They don't score and Nemeth goes 70+ yards for the last score and the 21 point difference.  Yes, the game was much closer than the final score.  The entire game as well as the entire season should be cosidered.  Wesley has issues, should they be 4 or 10?  I would go with closer to 4 than 10 and my opinion is always questioned based on my moniker.  You have always been honest and I don't think anyone who has been on here for some time questions your logic because of the name you use.  You are highly respected by those who have a clue.  On another note, I am surprised by the love that Linfield is getting at 3.

jknezek

Quote from: wesleydad on December 28, 2015, 03:46:12 PM
On another note, I am surprised by the love that Linfield is getting at 3.

Teams have to go somewhere. Someone has to be 3 through 10. Yes Linfield got a bit crunched by STU, but UWW got crunched by UMU and has an (avenged) loss, UWO got beat by a team that got crunched, Wesley got a bit crunched and has an ugly loss, UMHB got beat by a team that got a bit crunched and has a middling loss, Wabash got crunched, Wheaton got beat by a team that got crunched. At this point we are just out of options.

Someone has to be 3-10! You guys can wonder about the love for each team however you want, but you can't just leave a hole and skip it! Who else do you put 3, 4, 5?

wally_wabash

Quote from: jknezek on December 28, 2015, 03:38:55 PM
Part of why it gets disregarded is because anyone who watched that game without Wabash glasses on is going to laugh. You can't look at all those things you pointed out and say "well if we hadn't made 5 mistakes in a row, our special teams hadn't blown a field goal and a kickoff coverage, and if our defense hadn't given up scores, we would have been right there! Right there I tell you! We had it figured out on offense despite 6 punts in the first half and 3 plus a turnover on downs in the second!"

That's just Wabash tinted glasses. You got run over because you couldn't move the ball on offense, couldn't stop them on defense, couldn't stop making mistakes, and failed on special teams. What else is there to football? You had 1 drive, 1, against their first team defense and all of a sudden you've "figured it out"? The next time you got on the field on offense you went 11 yards in 5 plays and punted. Then 3 and out for 7 yards. Not exactly "figured it out territory."

We shouldn't pretend that the game is the same after that sequence of events that took the story from Wabash losing a touchdown that gets the game down to 10 points with 25 minutes left to play to Wabash getting the ball back 8 minutes later down by 31 points.  That's not realistic and you know that.

I'm definitely not hiding from the special teams apocalypse that befell the Little Giants on that afternoon.  Give up punt return TDs, give up fake FGs, fumble punts, don't recover an onsides kick...that's a list of things that might happen to a team collectively once in an entire season.  Wabash did it all in one game, most of it in the defining stretch of the game.  Whether the offense was full go or not, you really can't overcome all of that and win against a great team.  But that's how a game between physically competitive teams gets out of hand.  The mismatch wasn't the way you're describing it.  The game result was ugly, no doubt.  Can't hide from that.  But after watching UST vs. Linfield and UST vs. Mount Union and seeing the way UST ran through those two teams, my head is held way high.  Would love to get some do overs on special teams, but in no way did I come away from that game with UST thinking Wabash wasn't playing the same game. 

Quote from: jknezek on December 28, 2015, 03:38:55 PM
There are three phases to football, and STU hammered Wabash in each one of them. That is the definition of getting run over. Final score was just confirmation of what happened.

STU was an excellent team. Second best in the country and while I really believe there is a lot of separation between 1 and 2 this year, it is nothing compared to the step down after STU. I think 3-8 are probably splitting hairs, though Linfield and UWW probably top it. I do get the argument after that, but I have no problem with the way it shook out. If Wabash can rest its laurels on an excellent defense, Wesley can rest theirs on an excellent offense. Both were rewarded in the polls.

I knew I should have just left this one alone.  I NEVER play the "if you don't count these three plays it was a close game" thing.  I hate that.  I engaged this one time in order to point out that you can run the same exercise for Wabash that you've run to find that Wesley was in a game with Mount Union.  I'm a blind homer; Wesley is the fourth best team in D3.  Shame on me for playing along.  I knew better and I did it anyway. 

But since I'm in this spot, I'll go ahead and hang on to my point here though that you're doing the exact same gymnastics I just did in trying to convince me or anybody else that Wesley was right there in a game where the score was 49 to whatever.  Top 4 teams don't give up 49.  And they definitely don't do it twice in the same season.  And they don't lose to Salisbury.  You want to stack everything up here in a way that says Wesley losing 56-35 is not just not a bad result, but is an honest-to-God-achievement and makes them obviously better than Wabash or Thomas More or Wheaton or UMHB or even St. John's, then fine.  Wesley has that kind of benefit of the doubt capital I guess. 

Quote from: wesleydad on December 28, 2015, 03:46:12 PM
Wally, this looks a lot like the Wesley game with Mount.  28 - 14 with 6 mins to go in second quarter and then stuff happens and it is 49 - 14.  The only difference is that Wesley got to within 49 - 35 with the ball inside the 15 with 8 mins to go in the game.  They don't score and Nemeth goes 70+ yards for the last score and the 21 point difference.  Yes, the game was much closer than the final score.  The entire game as well as the entire season should be cosidered.  Wesley has issues, should they be 4 or 10?  I would go with closer to 4 than 10 and my opinion is always questioned based on my moniker.  You have always been honest and I don't think anyone who has been on here for some time questions your logic because of the name you use.  You are highly respected by those who have a clue.  On another note, I am surprised by the love that Linfield is getting at 3.

Appreciate the sentiment, WD.  I think we can both fairly look at our respective quarterfinal games and see positives and see the moments in the games where things turned irreversibly for the worse.  It happens against the great teams.  A couple of mistakes and a score gets away in a hurry. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HScoach

Linfield also gets a little bit of a mulligan for the UST game because they were without their stud QB. 

I have no dog in this fight, and maybe I'm tainted as a Mount guy looking at the D3 world as "win the Stagg or the season is a failure", but I find the heated arguments over the rankings to be a little odd.    Especially when the rankings mean absolutely NOTHING when it comes to D3.   It isn't like the BCS era in D1 where pre-season rankings were hugely important as they set you up for the year and how you finished last year had a huge impact on where you started the next season.

In my mind the top is pretty clear:
1.  Mount
2.  UST
3.  Linfield (if healthy)
4.  UWW


After that is gets questionable as all the teams have flaws.  If I had to put the next bunch in order:
5.  Oshkosh.   UWO and UWW were essentially a toss-up.  Twice.   Which team is really better?  UWW because of experience and winning when it mattered most.   Therefore Oshkosh clearly gets slotted right behind the elite 4. 

6.  MHB.   Had Linfield beat but once again couldn't close the deal.   How many more times do we have to see this play out for MHB before the D3 nation see them as a supremely talented but terribly undisciplined bunch that finds ways to lose?  MHB also had a better regular season loss than Welsey had too.

7.  Wesley had a great QB but absolutely no defense.  Yes, they made a nice comeback against Mount but they weren't ever a challenge for the Mount offense.   If Wesley would have been more efficient early in the game all I see as different is Mount is pushed to score in the 60+ range.   Either way, Mount was easily 21+ points better than Wesley regardless of how many times that games plays out in my head.   I can't see them stopping the power run games of UST or UWW either.  And that defense would have been lit up by a healthy Linfield.

8.  Wheaton is a very solid team that gets tested in the CCIW much more than Wabash does in the NCAC and has been more consistent. 

9.  Wabash plays in a historically weak conference that slants their stats, but they had an excellent defense with a solid, but a limited offense when facing someone bigger/stronger.   Not enough athletes to compensate for disparity up front against the elite.   Probably very similar to many of the best East Region teams over the years like SJF.  Very good team that is consistently improving, but not elite yet.  Probably won't ever be truly elite though.  I think they're close to peaking much like Wheaton has seemed to have done.
 
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

pg04

#1836
If we didn't talk about things that don't really matter in the grand scheme of things, what else would be left to talk about for, you know, the great majority of posters here?  ;D

HScoach

^ very true. 

I guess what I meant was that the vigor by which the arguments were made was the biggest surprise to me.  Though I guess I shouldn't have been.  That could have been me in 1994 when Mount lost 34-33 at the eventual national champ's house in round 2.  Guess 20+ years of Larry Kehres changes ones perspective.

Now back to your regularly scheduled discussion.....
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Before the playoffs my top 10 was: Linfield, Mount Union, St Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Wabash, UW-Whitewater, Thomas More, Wheaton, Wesley, Mary Hardin-Baylor
After the playoffs it was: Mount Union, St Thomas, Linfield, UW-Whitewater, UW-Oshkosh, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Wabash, Thomas More, Wheaton, Wesley.

Mount and St Thomas moved ahead of Linfield. UWW jumped up 2 knocking UWO down. UMHB jumped up 4 which pushed Wabash down 2 and Thomas More, Wheaton and Wesley all down 1.


I will point out that except for Wesley, I was not an outlier for anyone in the top 10. And there were 6 different teams that were ranked higher than Wesley on at least 2 ballots.

Don't forget Wesley had a loss not just to #1 but also a second loss to an unranked (on my ballot) Salisbury. Wabash's only loss was to #2, Thomas More's only loss was in OT to #7, Wheaton's only loss was to #4. Wesley's best wins were Johns Hopkins by 5 and North Central by 1. Is that enough to make up for the extra loss?
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Mr. Ypsi

FWIW, my final ballot was: UMU, UST, UWW, UWO, Linfield, Wesley, Wheaton, UMHB, Wabash, TM.  In retrospect, I would probably flip Wesley and Wheaton (Wheaton did not have a second loss, and beat NCC by a TD more than Wesley did).

USee

From the year in review Ryan Tipps (Wabash Alum) posted his final poll for D3.com

Final poll
1. Mount Union
2. St. Thomas
3. Linfield
4. UW-Whitewater
5. UW-Oshkosh
6. Mary Hardin-Baylor
7. Wheaton
8. Wesley
9. Hardin-Simmons
10. Wabash
11. Thomas More
12. UW-Platteville
13. St. John's
14. Johns Hopkins
15. North Central
16. Cortland State
17. Albright
18. Whitworth
19. Salisbury
20. Texas Lutheran
21. Washington and Lee
22. Dubuque
23. Ohio Northern
24. St. Lawrence
25. Huntingdon

HScoach

In general I have no big issues with Ryan's Top 25, and I know how the polling works and that it's really hard to get a read cross conferences, but John Carroll was a LOT better than the St Lawrence team that Mount played in the opening round.  Not that it matters in the big scheme of D3 though.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

bluestreak66

Quote from: HScoach on December 30, 2015, 05:27:01 PM
In general I have no big issues with Ryan's Top 25, and I know how the polling works and that it's really hard to get a read cross conferences, but John Carroll was a LOT better than the St Lawrence team that Mount played in the opening round.  Not that it matters in the big scheme of D3 though.

I couldn't agree more. I don't even see the logic honestly. St. Lawrence finished with the same amount of regular season losses, including one to 6-4 Morrisville State. JCU lost to the eventual champion in a game that was actually close at half, and in the last minutes to a second round playoff team. I think the problem is that ONU is too low in this poll, and because they beat JCU, he probably didn't want JCU too close to ONU. Either that or SLU gets an advantage for making the playoffs. But with that logic, maybe Norwich and LaVerne should be ranked........
A.M.D.G.
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