Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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Bob.Gregg

Ryan,

You're correct.

That's why I moved CMU from the 5 spot on the list last week to the 3 spot this week.

I believe, win or lose, Wesley, Whitworth and Carnegie-Mellon have already "locked up" Pool B berths.

I believe W&J locks up a berth with a win Saturday. 

I believe W&J gets in, even with a loss, but it won't be a fun 20 hours for Coach Mike and the boys.

Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Foss

It is probably worth pointing out that IF W&J loses, BOTH they and Linfield will have 2 in-region losses, which is the primary criteria for selection. Linfield's other loss was to a 6-3 DII scholarship school. This loss may be looked at under the secondary criteria and come back to haunt them. Linfield's DIII losses were to the #7 and #9 teams in the country. W&J's loss was to a currently 4-5 team and they will be playing a 4-5 team this week. I would think W&J would still get the nod even with a loss. However, the primary criteria looks at in-region games vs. DIII opponents, and both teams would have 2 losses if Linfield wins and W&J loses this Saturday (although W&J would have a higher in-region win % due to playing more games). It's probably Linfield's only shot to get in (a W&J loss) and my guess is it still wouldn't be enough to get them in.
A packed student section behind an end zone cheering on guys they will actually see in class on Monday is almost as cool as The Streak.

Bob.Gregg

Foss,

Both would then have two in-region losses.

W&J would have SEVEN in-region wins, Linfield FIVE.

Linfield will have Stagg Bowl pedigree, W&J won't (at least not in this decade).

W&J would still have enough primary criteria to get the berth, I believe, but not wagering on it.
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Foss

Bob,

Yep, you're right.

W&J's in-region win % would be .777% (7-2), Linfield's would be .714% (5-2)

Here's a couple of others:

Linfield's QOWI would be 9.428 and W&J's would be 9.222

W&J would have more wins over teams with winning records (worse losses, but better wins)

Linfield would stay around their #24 D3poll ranking, W&J (currently #23) would fall out of the top 25 (not part of the criteria, but kind of interesting)
A packed student section behind an end zone cheering on guys they will actually see in class on Monday is almost as cool as The Streak.

K-Mack

Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:20:58 PM
Are there really no other 'bubble' teams? Would an 6-3 Linfield team go over a 9-1 C.M. or 8-2 W&J?

Do you think they would deserve to go?

I'm asking not to antagonize ... I applaud the Linfield schedule (really just the HSU game), but the problem I see is their six wins contain no more impressive defeats than W&J's eight or Carnegie Mellon's nine in that scenario.

As Pat likes to say (much more than me, anyway), it's about who you beat.

Anyway, you guys were dropping knowledge on this board, so carry on ... just wanted to make that point.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:31:22 PMWell, hopefully the four win out then. Doesn't sound like anyone else should even be considered (including Linfield, quite honestly)...and I'd hate to see a good Pool C team (or Linfield) at home with the Loggers in the playoffs.

agree.

Quote from: CMURyan on November 06, 2006, 05:04:45 PM
Seems like any of the 4 listed could lose and still get in.  Maybe you would put a 3 loss Linfield in over a 2 loss W+J, but no other scenario makes sense.

also agree
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

downtown48

I don't think they deserve to go...only because of the Whitworth result, which is still painful, but I'd love to see them get in and beat Oxy again because they are capable of doing that.  We didn't get 42 points worse and from what I can gather they didn't improve enough to cover the difference... ;)

Much beyond beating Oxy and Whitworth in a rematch I don't know how far we'd go.   :-\    Can't turn the ball over 19 times in three games and expect much consideration.

d-train

Quote from: K-Mack on November 07, 2006, 02:19:08 PM
Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:20:58 PM
Are there really no other 'bubble' teams? Would an 6-3 Linfield team go over a 9-1 C.M. or 8-2 W&J?

Do you think they would deserve to go?

I'm asking not to antagonize ... I applaud the Linfield schedule (really just the HSU game), but the problem I see is their six wins contain no more impressive defeats than W&J's eight or Carnegie Mellon's nine in that scenario.

As Pat likes to say (much more than me, anyway), it's about who you beat.

Anyway, you guys were dropping knowledge on this board, so carry on ... just wanted to make that point.

No, you're right, I don't believe they do. While Linfield would likely beat a few teams that will make the playoffs in a head-to-head, they have been eliminated on the field with losses to HSU and Whitworth. They had their chances this year and didn't get it done. If they end up in the playoffs, I think that means we're effectively inviting too many teams (but I'd argue the same for virtually any two-loss, at-large team).

K-Mack

I'm not so sure Linfield would beat Oxy this year. It's hard to believe if you say "they're 42 points worse," but from afar it sounds like Linfield is a very different team than it was the past two years and before that. Oxy doesn't sound as good as previous years either, but I thought I'd just throw that out there.

How do you think Whitworth would fare if they host Oxy in the first round?
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

d-train

Quote from: K-Mack on November 07, 2006, 11:13:49 PM
I'm not so sure Linfield would beat Oxy this year. It's hard to believe if you say "they're 42 points worse," but from afar it sounds like Linfield is a very different team than it was the past two years and before that. Oxy doesn't sound as good as previous years either, but I thought I'd just throw that out there.

How do you think Whitworth would fare if they host Oxy in the first round?

I think the Pirates will win.

K-Mack

Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

downtown48

The 42 points is referencing the spread from last year's game between the two.  I agree with you 100% Linfield is obviously not as good as last year's team but as you said I don't think Oxy's is either.  Linfield didn't lose enough talent to cover that spread...I think they would win but more like 35-28, 28-17, something like that.

The Whitworth/Oxy game is tough for me to call.  I would tend to agree with D-train that Whitworth will win, but it will be close.  You know by now that I was less than impressed with Whitworth, their offense is not even close to what it has been the last couple of years.  Granted I saw them in terrible weather but they haven't put up points all year against average competition.  Joel Clark seems to stare down Allen (the big TE) from snap to pass.  The guy is a monster and I'd imagine AWESOME down of the goal line to throw to.  But Whitworth lines him up on the outside or in the slot almost always and Linfield didn't have any DB's he could get open on.  Seems he'd be far better on a LB, catch a short pass and just run over people.  Linfield moved the ball on them in the rain so I wasn't impressed with the defense either. 

Seeing Oxy the last two years I've been impressed with Collins and that's it.  They couldn't protect him, couldn't run it, couldn't defend the pass and couldn't defend the run (and our run game was suspect last year).  Now unless they've improved in those areas, they will have trouble.  Granted the last two Linfield teams have been GOOD and I know Oxy won a couple of games in the playoffs two years ago but I don't think they'll get it done in the cold weather in Spokane. 

The two quarterbacks will both play well, whoever's supporting cast shows up will get the W.  I think Whitworth's defense is better and they'll be at home so they win say...28-24.  But they get beat the next week by whoever they play.

d-train

Quote from: K-Mack on November 08, 2006, 01:26:25 AM
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?

Oh, maybe 24-14 in Spokane. It won't be 44-7 - Whitworth hasn't been putting up those kinds of offensive numbers this year except versus L&C. But contrary to DT48, I think Whitworth's defense is pretty solid. Linfield had a some success moving the ball, but I think the 'Cat offense is better then people think (besides the Luteovers...I mean turnovers). And I'm sure the Pirates bring more on offense when they are not nursing a lead in awful conditions. I also think Linfield would beat Oxy if they were to play next weekend. A little higher scoring, but about the same margin. Oxy would have a slightly better chance at home, but even then I'd put money on either NWC squad to take 'em.

Looking down the road - I'm convinced we'll see SJU and UW-W in the quarters. They seem to be at least a notch above the field out this way and their home field in those second round games will be key.

wildcat11

Quote from: d-train on November 08, 2006, 11:19:26 AM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 08, 2006, 01:26:25 AM
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?

Oh, maybe 24-14 in Spokane. It won't be 44-7 - Whitworth hasn't been putting up those kinds of offensive numbers this year except versus L&C. But contrary to DT48, I think Whitworth's defense is pretty solid. Linfield had a some success moving the ball, but I think the 'Cat offense is better then people think (besides the Luteovers...I mean turnovers). And I'm sure the Pirates bring more on offense when they are not nursing a lead in awful conditions. I also think Linfield would beat Oxy if they were to play next weekend. A little higher scoring, but about the same margin. Oxy would have a slightly better chance at home, but even then I'd put money on either NWC squad to take 'em.

Looking down the road - I'm convinced we'll see SJU and UW-W in the quarters. They seem to be at least a notch above the field out this way and their home field in those second round games will be key.

Hands down if the game is in Spokane then the Rats will win but I agree with DT48 and D-Train that it won't be ala blowout. 

The Rats just don't have the horses to push the gas to the floor.  The Rats defense is more of a "bend but don't break" ball hawking defense.  They can get burned but the chances they take can pay huge dividends.  The Rats defense reminded more of an old style PLU defense...not super physical but good side to side speed and the willingness to gamble.

Oxy...Collins is amazingly good but I have not seen anybody else on the Oxy offense that is a real gamebreaker and it doesn't look like anybody else has stepped up to be Collins money guy to help take the heat off.  At least Joel Clark has Allen to throw to and I think that will be the difference.

My line would look like: Rats -10.  I think Whitworth's run stops at the second round.

(K-Mack...Oxy still wouldn't beat Linfield either.  ;) )

Sabretooth Tiger

Quote from: wildcat11 on November 08, 2006, 11:36:18 AM
Quote from: d-train on November 08, 2006, 11:19:26 AM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 08, 2006, 01:26:25 AM
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?

Oh, maybe 24-14 in Spokane. It won't be 44-7 - Whitworth hasn't been putting up those kinds of offensive numbers this year except versus L&C. But contrary to DT48, I think Whitworth's defense is pretty solid. Linfield had a some success moving the ball, but I think the 'Cat offense is better then people think (besides the Luteovers...I mean turnovers). And I'm sure the Pirates bring more on offense when they are not nursing a lead in awful conditions. I also think Linfield would beat Oxy if they were to play next weekend. A little higher scoring, but about the same margin. Oxy would have a slightly better chance at home, but even then I'd put money on either NWC squad to take 'em.

Looking down the road - I'm convinced we'll see SJU and UW-W in the quarters. They seem to be at least a notch above the field out this way and their home field in those second round games will be key.

Hands down if the game is in Spokane then the Rats will win but I agree with DT48 and D-Train that it won't be ala blowout. 

The Rats just don't have the horses to push the gas to the floor.  The Rats defense is more of a "bend but don't break" ball hawking defense.  They can get burned but the chances they take can pay huge dividends.  The Rats defense reminded more of an old style PLU defense...not super physical but good side to side speed and the willingness to gamble.

Oxy...Collins is amazingly good but I have not seen anybody else on the Oxy offense that is a real gamebreaker and it doesn't look like anybody else has stepped up to be Collins money guy to help take the heat off.  At least Joel Clark has Allen to throw to and I think that will be the difference.

My line would look like: Rats -10.  I think Whitworth's run stops at the second round.

(K-Mack...Oxy still wouldn't beat Linfield either.  ;) )

As you might expect, I think you guys are underestimating the Tigers (as I hope Whitworth or whomever we meet in round 1 does) . . .

Collins can spread it to a number of receivers, Anderson is doing a great job at running back, the O-line has jelled and the defense is a good unit that has gone up against a good qb in Jones at CLU.  If it stays dry, it'll be a damn good game.

for whatever that view is worth,

tooth