FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

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GoldandBlueBU

Quote from: DuffMan on March 26, 2020, 01:19:12 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on March 25, 2020, 10:57:03 PM
Thanks for the advice, but post-retirement, 7 AM is a no-go zone!

I don't know, my dad still gets up at 5:30-6:00!  :D

I went grocery shopping at 7:30 a.m. today.  Wasn't too bad.  It boggles my mind that there was literally no sugar, flour, or rice, though.  Doesn't there come a point when everyone has enough of these?  I ended up going to Byerly's to get the two things that Cub was out of, but other than that, I shouldn't have to go to the store for at least 2 weeks.

I did a 7AM target run a few days ago.  There were probably 30 or so ppl lined up to get in the door, and 100% of them went straight back to the toilet paper section.  It was bizarre.  I was there for groceries, and got everything we needed.

I'm sure that some of them were legitimately running low, but I can't help but wonder how many of them are making a daily habit of making sure that they're one of the people who can buy TP.  One guy who was loading up when I left had a suburban filled with paper towels and TP.  Seems like this activates some weird mental health issues in some people.

We're good for a few more weeks on TP in our household...wondering if it will have tempered by the time we need some, or if I'll have to join the hoard rushing to the back of the store when the open the doors.

jknezek

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 26, 2020, 01:35:13 PM


We're good for a few more weeks on TP in our household...wondering if it will have tempered by the time we need some, or if I'll have to join the hoard rushing to the back of the store when the open the doors.

We thought this too when it all started. When we got to the last pack we started looking. Nothing. Down to the last role. Begged a pack off some friends (they were happy to give it but we all appreciated the joke when he put it at the end of the driveway for pickup but stood his 6 year old halfway down with a water gun to drive off the scavengers!). Ended up on the last roll of that pack before we could finally get some at a store. Have enough for 2 weeks now. So I'm going to start looking again tomorrow.

Retired Old Rat

   
National Champions: 1963, 1965, 1976, 2003

Retired Old Rat

#98553
If anyone is in desperate need of toilet paper I can spare a square.  I'm in Highland Park.  PM me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gysu0kgFwT0
   
National Champions: 1963, 1965, 1976, 2003

OzJohnnie

#98554
Yeah, I think the odds of angry mobs with pitchforks and torches after this is all over is increasing.  The same Imperial College scientist who scared the world ten days ago when he predicted 400k dead Britons, 18 months of lockdown and peak infection in three months requiring 30x the supply of critical beds available in Britain now says just ten days later?  Deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20k and could be much lower.  That's flu territory.

So, the big changes in his model?  He didn't include any widespread testing but now sees it is possible.  And it now appears from data out of Europe that the virus is more infectious than he modelled 10 days ago, meaning far more people are infected now that he modelled, decreasing the severity of the bug.  He also assumes most people are not asymptomatic.

That second article on his change of heart has him specifically mentioning the Oxford analysis.  It looks like the doomsday assumptions are being tested.  Go Oxford.  I sure hope they are right.

EDIT:  A small correction.  His original model said up to 510k dead in Britain and 2.2 million in the US.  He's also the modelling behind the covidactnow.com website.  Hmm... We're up for a very interesting two weeks.
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GoldandBlueBU

Quote from: OzJohnnie on March 26, 2020, 03:02:40 PM
Yeah, I think the odds of angry mobs with pitchforks and torches after this is all over is increasing.  The same Imperial College scientist who scared the world ten days ago when he predicted 400k dead Britons, 18 months of lockdown and peak infection in three months requiring 30x the supply of critical beds available in Britain now says just ten days later?  Deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20k and could be much lower.  That's flu territory.

So, the big changes in his model?  He didn't include any widespread testing but now sees it is possible.  And it now appears from data out of Europe that the virus is more infectious than he modelled 10 days ago, meaning far more people are infected now that he modelled, decreasing the severity of the bug.  He also assumes most people are not asymptomatic.

That second article on his change of heart has him specifically mentioning the Oxford analysis.  It looks like the doomsday assumptions are being tested.  Go Oxford.  I sure hope they are right.

EDIT:  A small correction.  His original model said up to 510k dead in Britain and 2.2 million in the US.  He's also the modelling behind the covidactnow.com website.  Hmm... We're up for a very interesting two weeks.

And of that 20K, he says that half of them would have likely died by the end of the year regardless due to age.

OzJohnnie

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 26, 2020, 03:36:42 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on March 26, 2020, 03:02:40 PM
Yeah, I think the odds of angry mobs with pitchforks and torches after this is all over is increasing.  The same Imperial College scientist who scared the world ten days ago when he predicted 400k dead Britons, 18 months of lockdown and peak infection in three months requiring 30x the supply of critical beds available in Britain now says just ten days later?  Deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20k and could be much lower.  That's flu territory.

So, the big changes in his model?  He didn't include any widespread testing but now sees it is possible.  And it now appears from data out of Europe that the virus is more infectious than he modelled 10 days ago, meaning far more people are infected now that he modelled, decreasing the severity of the bug.  He also assumes most people are not asymptomatic.

That second article on his change of heart has him specifically mentioning the Oxford analysis.  It looks like the doomsday assumptions are being tested.  Go Oxford.  I sure hope they are right.

EDIT:  A small correction.  His original model said up to 510k dead in Britain and 2.2 million in the US.  He's also the modelling behind the covidactnow.com website.  Hmm... We're up for a very interesting two weeks.

And of that 20K, he says that half of them would have likely died by the end of the year regardless due to age.

Yes, that's quite a reversal in only ten days.  It will be very interesting to see how the next ten days go.
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MUC57

#98557
I saw an old lady (my age) at Walmart with 36 rolls of TP. If she really needs all those, I suspect covid-19 should not be her main concern. Are these people nuts or what?

I spent 3 days in isolation at Alliance Hospital. Wasn't feeling well and I'm old! After many IV's, shots and numerous pills I was released. Got tested for the Coronavirus and it came back NEGATIVE! I do have a rhinovirus (cold) and pneumonia. Working on those at home with numerous medications. 57Johnnie is right- getting older is not for sissies.

I direct my prayers to all the other people affected one way or the other by this pandemic.

As a small child, I remember WWll. The country joined together to fight an enemy we all knew. Now we must join together to fight an enemy we've never seen.

God Bless all you guys, your families, your friends and everyone touched by this virus. I'm lucky. I don't have it, others are not so lucky!

Oh! Go Everybody! That includes doctors, nurses, nurses aides, techs, nurse practioners and anyone involved with the battle of this horrific Iillness.

STAY SAFE! STAY WELL! 

I'm old! I get mixed up and I forget things! Go Everybody! 🏈 ☠

OzJohnnie

Well said, MUC57.  I'm very glad to hear you're home and recovering.  Keep us posted.

(And who would have thought there would be a time when someone would be happy to have regular old pneumonia?)
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57Johnnie

Quote from: MUC57 on March 26, 2020, 05:06:49 PM
I saw an old lady (my age) at Walmart with 36 rolls of TP. If she really needs all those, I suspect covid-19 should not be her main concern. Are these people nuts or what?

I spent 3 days in isolation at Alliance Hospital. Wasn't feeling well and I'm old! After many IV's, shots and numerous pills I was released. Got tested for the Coronavirus and it came back NEGATIVE! I do have a rhinovirus (cold) and pneumonia. Working on those at home with numerous medications. 57Johnnie is right- getting older is not for sissies.

I direct my prayers to all the other people affected one way or the other by this pandemic.

As a small child, I remember WWll. The country joined together to fight an enemy we all knew. Now we must join together to fight an enemy we've never seen.

God Bless all you guys, your families, your friends and everyone touched by this virus. I'm lucky. I don't have it, others are not so lucky!

Oh! Go Everybody! That includes doctors, nurses, nurses aides, techs, nurse practioners and anyone involved with the battle of this horrific Iillness.

STAY SAFE! STAY WELL!
Get well soon!
I recommend Timisoreana, Ursus or Zaganu.  :D
The older the violin - the sweeter the music!

miac952


miac952

I'm starting not to believe China's numbers. How did much smaller countries like Spain and Italy pass them up with such ease. I get that the Wuhan area was shutdown and less transient, but I am still puzzled. And if this thing is wreaking havoc in well developed cities in NY, Louisiana, Northern Italy and Spain, I can't fathom what it will do to cities in India, parts of Africa or even Mother Russia. And we'll probably never know the full scope in those areas.

OzJohnnie

Quote from: miac952 on March 26, 2020, 06:43:00 PM
I'm starting not to believe China's numbers. How did much smaller countries like Spain and Italy pass them up with such ease. I get that the Wuhan area was shutdown and less transient, but I am still puzzled. And if this thing is wreaking havoc in well developed cities in NY, Louisiana, Northern Italy and Spain, I can't fathom what it will do to cities in India, parts of Africa or even Mother Russia. And we'll probably never know the full scope in those areas.

Yeah, I agree.  I reckon they are lying their backsides off.  Have been since day one.  The pros need to use medical data out of the EU and NA.  Can't trust anything else to be accurate.
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OzJohnnie

I missed this a week ago.  Carnival Cruise Lines, who have cancelled all their cruises, have offered their ships as hospital ships to local coastal gov'ts in need of more beds.  I haven't been able to find an article to see if anyone has taken them up on it yet.  But more good ingenuity coming to the front.  Fortunately P&O Australia is included.  I haven't seen mention of this in the Aussie press, however.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/03/19/with-coronavirus-overwhelming-facilities-land-carnival-offers-its-cruise-ships-makeshift-hospitals/
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jamtod

Quote from: OzJohnnie on March 26, 2020, 04:09:58 PM
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 26, 2020, 03:36:42 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on March 26, 2020, 03:02:40 PM
Yeah, I think the odds of angry mobs with pitchforks and torches after this is all over is increasing.  The same Imperial College scientist who scared the world ten days ago when he predicted 400k dead Britons, 18 months of lockdown and peak infection in three months requiring 30x the supply of critical beds available in Britain now says just ten days later?  Deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20k and could be much lower.  That's flu territory.

So, the big changes in his model?  He didn't include any widespread testing but now sees it is possible.  And it now appears from data out of Europe that the virus is more infectious than he modelled 10 days ago, meaning far more people are infected now that he modelled, decreasing the severity of the bug.  He also assumes most people are not asymptomatic.

That second article on his change of heart has him specifically mentioning the Oxford analysis.  It looks like the doomsday assumptions are being tested.  Go Oxford.  I sure hope they are right.

EDIT:  A small correction.  His original model said up to 510k dead in Britain and 2.2 million in the US.  He's also the modelling behind the covidactnow.com website.  Hmm... We're up for a very interesting two weeks.

And of that 20K, he says that half of them would have likely died by the end of the year regardless due to age.

Yes, that's quite a reversal in only ten days.  It will be very interesting to see how the next ten days go.

Just came across this clarification from Mr Ferguson, which suggests it's not so much a reversal:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928?s=19