FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

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GoldandBlueBU

Quote from: art76 on March 01, 2017, 10:15:13 AM
The Cobbers stepped up big to schedule UW Whitewater instead of Jamestown - kudos to them.


Wow, no kidding, way to go Cobbers.  I wish the playoff setup (of having 2 losses nearly certainly knocking you out of an at-large bid) wasn't what it is. (beating a dead horse, I know).

Have to figure that's why SJU doesn't want to play a school like UW-Plat...If you figure you have a shot at winning the MIAC, and if not, a very, very good chance at only having 1 in conference loss, why risk a playoff berth on a challenging non-conference game.

We'd see a ton of fun non-conference matchups if this wasn't the case.

AO

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 11:14:04 AM
Quote from: art76 on March 01, 2017, 10:15:13 AM
The Cobbers stepped up big to schedule UW Whitewater instead of Jamestown - kudos to them.


Wow, no kidding, way to go Cobbers.  I wish the playoff setup (of having 2 losses nearly certainly knocking you out of an at-large bid) wasn't what it is. (beating a dead horse, I know).

Have to figure that's why SJU doesn't want to play a school like UW-Plat...If you figure you have a shot at winning the MIAC, and if not, a very, very good chance at only having 1 in conference loss, why risk a playoff berth on a challenging non-conference game.

We'd see a ton of fun non-conference matchups if this wasn't the case.
Platteville got in this past season with 2 losses.  Concordia's low SOS last year could have prevented them from getting in at 9-1.  Playing a down Eau Claire team and an NAIA almost eliminates you from at-large consideration before the season starts.

GoldandBlueBU

Yeah, I get that an at large with 2 losses can happen, but it very much puts you at risk. 

I just wish that the most logical path to the playoffs for UST / SJU (occasionally BU or CORD) level teams in the MIAC wasn't finding two relatively easy non-con games vs. D3 opponents so that you can trip up once in the MIAC, end up 9-1, and be all but assured an at-large bid.  Makes for two boring non-conference matchups.

Too many UMAC's of the world eating up automatic bids...  ;)


art76

Teams with an opening on 9/9 from the region, according to D3 schedules

CCIW
North Park

IIAC
Simpson
Loras

MWC
Illinois College
Lawrence
Beloit
Knox

NACC
Aurora
Concordia Chicago
Rockford

UMAC
Crown
Iowa Wesleyan

WIAC
Oshkosh

Independent
Finlandia
You don't have a soul. You are a soul.
You have a body. - C.S. Lewis

AO

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 12:57:57 PM
Yeah, I get that an at large with 2 losses can happen, but it very much puts you at risk. 

I just wish that the most logical path to the playoffs for UST / SJU (occasionally BU or CORD) level teams in the MIAC wasn't finding two relatively easy non-con games vs. D3 opponents so that you can trip up once in the MIAC, end up 9-1, and be all but assured an at-large bid.  Makes for two boring non-conference matchups.

Too many UMAC's of the world eating up automatic bids...  ;)
I really don't think easy non-con games is the most logical path to a bid.  St. Thomas could definitely be in trouble at 9-1 with Stout and Eau Claire as the non-conference games.  They're likely not going to have a great SOS and if the MIAC has too much parity, the best team they beat might not get into the regional rankings.

GoldandBlueBU

#81005
Quote from: AO on March 01, 2017, 01:40:18 PM
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 12:57:57 PM
Yeah, I get that an at large with 2 losses can happen, but it very much puts you at risk. 

I just wish that the most logical path to the playoffs for UST / SJU (occasionally BU or CORD) level teams in the MIAC wasn't finding two relatively easy non-con games vs. D3 opponents so that you can trip up once in the MIAC, end up 9-1, and be all but assured an at-large bid.  Makes for two boring non-conference matchups.

Too many UMAC's of the world eating up automatic bids...  ;)
I really don't think easy non-con games is the most logical path to a bid.  St. Thomas could definitely be in trouble at 9-1 with Stout and Eau Claire as the non-conference games.  They're likely not going to have a great SOS and if the MIAC has too much parity, the best team they beat might not get into the regional rankings.

So show me a MIAC team that went 9-1 and missed the playoffs...has it happened in the past 15 years?

Last year's SJU schedule is a perfect example - they played a juggernaut CSS squad that they thumped, and then beat a Buena Vista team that finished 3-5 for 6th in the IIAC...dropped the UST game, got into the playoffs.

The way it always seems to work out is that you'd be at much greater risk with 2 losses, than 1, assuming you played d3 teams for non-conference.

Edit - I should add, I really do appreciate the commentary AO - I do legitimately learn more about the structure of D3 playoffs from your posts here, and earlier this year on the hoops board re: at large bids in basketball.

AO

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 02:05:06 PM
Quote from: AO on March 01, 2017, 01:40:18 PM
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 12:57:57 PM
Yeah, I get that an at large with 2 losses can happen, but it very much puts you at risk. 

I just wish that the most logical path to the playoffs for UST / SJU (occasionally BU or CORD) level teams in the MIAC wasn't finding two relatively easy non-con games vs. D3 opponents so that you can trip up once in the MIAC, end up 9-1, and be all but assured an at-large bid.  Makes for two boring non-conference matchups.

Too many UMAC's of the world eating up automatic bids...  ;)
I really don't think easy non-con games is the most logical path to a bid.  St. Thomas could definitely be in trouble at 9-1 with Stout and Eau Claire as the non-conference games.  They're likely not going to have a great SOS and if the MIAC has too much parity, the best team they beat might not get into the regional rankings.

So show me a MIAC team that went 9-1 and missed the playoffs...has it happened in the past 15 years?

Last year's SJU schedule is a perfect example - they played a juggernaut CSS squad that they thumped, and then beat a Buena Vista team that finished 3-5 for 6th in the IIAC...dropped the UST game, got into the playoffs.

The way it always seems to work out is that you'd be at much greater risk with 2 losses, than 1, assuming you played d3 teams for non-conference.

Edit - I should add, I really do appreciate the commentary AO - I do legitimately learn more about the structure of D3 playoffs from your posts here, and earlier this year on the hoops board re: at large bids in basketball.
CSS is a good team to schedule if you want an at-large bid.  Even in a down year for them they were 7-2 (since the SOS doesn't count the game you played against them).  If your only choices after that are a team likely to finish well under .500 or an NAIA team, go with the NAIA team.  You'll likely get a better game from the NAIA and it won't hurt your SOS.

Hopefully the Johnnies find some good competition, but this late in the game there aren't many great options left.


GoldandBlueBU

Quote from: AO on March 01, 2017, 02:57:04 PM
CSS is a good team to schedule if you want an at-large bid.  Even in a down year for them they were 7-2 (since the SOS doesn't count the game you played against them). 


That may be the case, but it supports the idea that scheduling "easy",  wins in non-conference is the most logical path to an at large bid, if you're SJU and hoping to win the MIAC, but figure, worst case, probably 1 in conference loss.

CSS is an easy win for the top 4 of the MIAC.

OzJohnnie

I'm suspect there are more considerations to an easy, early non-conference schedule than just post-season viability, but that is part of the equation undoubtedly.

In addition to the post season, I imagine coaches are also considering opportunities for new teams, every year has a significant senior turnover, to jell. Particularly skill position relationships in teams that play complex schemes.  These games can sometimes be considered extended pre-season scrimmages with a bit more importance, of course.

Along similar lines, a season is a short time and is often built on early season confidence. And while marching up against a tough opponent can have certain benefits, I can imagine coaches could also see benefit for the players in giving them matchups where they have the time and space to execute really well and get a feel for what the coaches are demanding from them.

So, while a Clash of The Titans scenario is always entertaining for me as a fan, I guess I can see a few reasons other than post season glory hounding where a coach would prefer less competitive matchups early in the season.
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AO

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 04:35:47 PM
Quote from: AO on March 01, 2017, 02:57:04 PM
CSS is a good team to schedule if you want an at-large bid.  Even in a down year for them they were 7-2 (since the SOS doesn't count the game you played against them). 


That may be the case, but it supports the idea that scheduling "easy",  wins in non-conference is the most logical path to an at large bid, if you're SJU and hoping to win the MIAC, but figure, worst case, probably 1 in conference loss.

CSS is an easy win for the top 4 of the MIAC.
If you're a 9-1 MIAC team there are maybe 4-5 teams in the region you shouldn't beat pretty easily.  Anybody got any news on if the Northern Sun is ever going to play a non-conference game again?

HansenRatings

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on March 01, 2017, 04:35:47 PM
Quote from: AO on March 01, 2017, 02:57:04 PM
CSS is a good team to schedule if you want an at-large bid.  Even in a down year for them they were 7-2 (since the SOS doesn't count the game you played against them)


That may be the case, but it supports the idea that scheduling "easy",  wins in non-conference is the most logical path to an at large bid, if you're SJU and hoping to win the MIAC, but figure, worst case, probably 1 in conference loss.

CSS is an easy win for the top 4 of the MIAC.

It doesn't in the calculation of OWP, but it does in the calculation of OOWP, so every win a team has in their non-conference schedule boosts their SOS, no matter how minutely. (conference games would be a wash in all conferences but the PAC & MWC). This single game is going to be a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, but the absurdity of the NCAA's SOS metric is a pet peeve of mine.

Fun fact, because March Madness is approaching, and pretty much everyone I know hates DI's RPI metric:
RPI = 0.25(Win %) + 0.50(Opp Win %) + 0.25(Opp Opp Win %)
SOS = 2/3(Opp Win %) + 1/3(Opp Opp Win %)
therefore
RPI = 0.25(Win %) + 0.75(SOS)

The NCAA's SOS figure used in DIII sports is just RPI with winning percentage removed from the equation.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings


stanbob

I'm kinda thinking that teams in the west would really like the ncaa3 to rethink their playoff philosophy...
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