New England Soccer Discussion

Started by Jim Matson, June 09, 2006, 12:25:06 AM

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blooter442

Khang is a good all-round midfielder but has major fitness issues. Maybe it's the injury, but he looks gassed.

blooter442

Less than 10 left. Still 1-0 MIT.

blooter442

MIT gets a second with 5 left. Really nice one two finished off by #3. 2-0.

Mr.Right

I feel like UMB is decent until the final 3rd then it all falls apart. Either giving the ball away or giving the ball to players in bad position and MIT is doing a good job of giving them nothing in front of the net...Ballgame 2-0 MIT on a nice cross and finish. defender forgot to stay with his man..Yea UMB is definitely not quite the same team but as a coach I would not want to face a team like this in the 1st Round of the NCAA's because they do have the skill to generate chances and "moments" that could possibly be problematic. Most likely though this team fades rather quietly in November.

NEsoccerfan20

Endicott with a huge 2-1 win over Wentworth... freshman Becker scored the first... Wentworth tied it up in the second half.... Cohane of Endicott got sent off and the Gulls scored a second with 5 minutes left and a man down... brilliant scissor kick finish by Becker to keep the Gulls atop the CCC with only UNE and Salve left to play.

blooter442

Quote from: Mr.Right on October 18, 2017, 08:48:51 PM
I feel like UMB is decent until the final 3rd then it all falls apart. Either giving the ball away or giving the ball to players in bad position and MIT is doing a good job of giving them nothing in front of the net...Ballgame 2-0 MIT on a nice cross and finish. defender forgot to stay with his man..Yea UMB is definitely not quite the same team but as a coach I would not want to face a team like this in the 1st Round of the NCAA's because they do have the skill to generate chances and "moments" that could possibly be problematic. Most likely though this team fades rather quietly in November.

Yeah generating highlight-reel plays and "moments" can definitely win you games, so I don't mean to discount the value of that because in the tourney that can be the difference. I think what we agree on is that it comes down to consistency over the course of a season, and they don't seem to have that. On the whole, I think it was a pretty even game, although I do think MIT created more in the final third than UMB, and I'd say MIT were deserved winners.

OldNed

Quote from: blooter442 on October 04, 2017, 11:41:16 PM
Quote from: Ommadawn on October 04, 2017, 10:14:28 PM
The first-year GK from South Kent has had a big role in USM's success this year.  He has kept them in games that they otherwise might not have been in previously.

You know, that was my suspicion. SoccerMom mentioned that he played quite well against Bowdoin. Following today's game (compared with NCAA stats -- updated yesterday) he's ranked 27th in the country in save percentage (10th in New England) at .851, quite good especially for a first-year. If they can keep him fit and healthy they could I think they could well continue to improve.

St. Joe's narrowly beat USM last night 1-0, and Glemawu the USM goalie did a terrific job to keep USM in the game.  He made several really nice saves and he did a great job coming out of the net on long balls into the 18.  USM really played St. Joe's tough - I think their game plan was to play physical and they did just that and it looked like it threw St. Joe's off their game a little bit.

OldNed

Quote from: Off Pitch on October 18, 2017, 05:12:55 PM
Quote from: Off Pitch on October 17, 2017, 10:26:16 PM
Projected 10/18 regional rankings for New England:

1.    Amherst
2.    Tufts
3.    Brandeis
4.    Conn
5.    Middlebury
6.    Williams
7.    Springfield
8.    St. Josephs
9.    Mass-Boston
10.  Bowdoin
11.  Coast Guard
12.  Johnson & Wales

Springfield and St Josephs may not be ranked as their SOS may fall below .500

Next in line:
Colby
Endicott
WPI
Gordon

Actual rankings with winning % and SOS

1.     Tufts             0.875        .605
2.     Amherst        0.727        .679
3.     Conn             0.808        .605
4.     Brandeis        0.769        .618
5.     Williams        0.750        .601
6.     Springfield     1.000        .556
7.     Middlebury     0.692        .614
8.     Mass-Boston  0.692        .578
9.     Bowdoin        0.750        .554
10.   J&Wales         0.893        .530
11.   Gordon          0.679        .555
12.   Colby            0.636         .584

Not ranked (winning % over .600 and SOS over .500)
        St Josephs     0.964        .474
        Coast Guard   0.654        .549
        Endicott         0.679        .546
        WPI              0.692         .535
        Clark             0.654         .507
        Colby-Sawyer 0.615         .534
        Keene St        0.615         .556
        WConnSt       0.625          .515

It pains me to not see St. Joe's among the 12 here, but as has been noted elsewhere, SOS is EVERYTHING.  St. Joe's has good wins over ranked teams Bowdoin and Johnson & Wales, but it's not enough to balance all the other weak teams on the schedule. I'm guessing even if Saint Joe's beats Keene St next week, that won't be enough to raise their SOS enough either.  Losing the result from the cancelled Colby game really hurts this year, so it's looking like Saint Joe's is going to need the AQ from the GNAC conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.

Bobcat1


NEFutbol90

I think its safe to say regardless of the colby game and keene result the chance of an At Large Bid was never there, and likely will never be there until St.Joes schedule top to bottom is filled with contending programs and that likely only happens with a unlikely switch in conference. For the foreseeable future and like years past the only way you reach the NCAA Tournament in conferences like the GNAC, MASCAC, NAC, is through winning the conference championship. Having to play every team in such a poor conference takes far to much of the schedule to match any of these other schools resumes.

blooter442

Quote from: NEFutbol90 on October 19, 2017, 09:57:14 AM
I think its safe to say regardless of the colby game and keene result the chance of an At Large Bid was never there, and likely will never be there until St.Joes schedule top to bottom is filled with contending programs and that likely only happens with a unlikely switch in conference. For the foreseeable future and like years past the only way you reach the NCAA Tournament in conferences like the GNAC, MASCAC, NAC, is through winning the conference championship. Having to play every team in such a poor conference takes far to much of the schedule to match any of these other schools resumes.

I agree, and you -- coupled with OldNed's point above about SoS being everything -- made me think of an interesting point (albeit one that might seem obvious): Ultimately, the SoS of a given team has a lot to do with what conference that school is in.

Many on this board (myself included) have remarked about given cases of a good team having a less-than-stellar SoS. It has been wondered why Springfield, at 13-0-0, has not tested itself against stronger opposition given that it has rolled through the NEWMAC teams pretty easily, and I certainly would like to see the Pride test themselves against, say, a Tufts or an Amherst. Mr.Right remarked that they used to play each of the NESCAC Little Three under the old coach, and they used to play Brandeis through 2012. Yet there is not a single NESCAC on Springfield's schedule this year. If Springfield goes 24-0 and wins a national title, I don't think there will be any argument they deserved it. At this point, though, the natural question is "well they roll over all the NEWMAC teams, so why can't they play a more competitive out of conference schedule (particularly when teams like WPI, Babson, and Wheaton are playing NESCACs)?" I wondered similarly about UMASS-Boston last year, who IMHO only really tested itself out-of-conference with a single game against Babson.

Regardless of whether a team is at the top or bottom of its conference, its SoS has a large chunk to do with the competitiveness of the schools in that conference. Of course, if a team beats all the schools in its conference, it will decrease its own SoS figure, but not by as much as one might think.

Take the UAA for example. As a conference, it has an average winning percentage of .689 (I do recognize SoS is 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP, but don't have the time nor the interest to go that in-depth). 7 out of 8 teams are above .500, with the top four teams' average winning percentage being .783. The NESCAC has an average winning percentage of .653, with 10 out of 11 teams above .500, and the top five teams have an average winning percentage of .796. Granted NESCACs tend to play less total games than UAAs, but as far as average winning percentage goes, the two are fairly similar.

Looking at various conferences in New England, it is little wonder why some good teams have a very poor SoS. The GNAC has an average winning percentage of .503; take St. Joseph's and Johnson and Wales out, and the average winning percentage of the remaining nine teams is .408. The CCC has an average winning percentage of .498; take the top two out, it's .446. Take the top two out of the NESCAC and UAA, and those conferences still are at .615 and .644.

Obviously if we are to follow this logic to the end we'd have to eliminate the teams from all results (thus changing OWP and OOWP), but you can see that a top team in a strong conference will generally still have a good SoS, while a top team in a weak conference will generally have a poor SoS.

Now, I think it's fair to say that -- regardless of conference -- it behooves a school to play competitive teams in order to strengthen its case for an NCAA bid (albeit it's important to win those games when it comes down to RvR as a selection criteria). And it is interesting to see that some schools, Amherst being an example in past years, have played some weak non-conference opposition, as they know they'll have opportunity to get ranked wins in conference. I might take a different approach myself, but I very much understand the thought process.

Ultimately, every team in a conference is obligated to play every other team in a given conference. For those in competitive conferences, this enables more discretion in the quality of non-conference opposition while still keeping a strong SoS. For those in weak conferences, however, the margin is far smaller. So while it would be admirable for SJC to go out and schedule all the Maine NESCACs and a couple of NEWMACs/UAAs/etc., and I do think its win over Bowdoin was a good result and a step in the right direction, as long as it stays in the GNAC its schedule would have to be chock-full of competitive teams to have its SoS even be near what a school in another, more competitive conference would have, regardless of how well it does.

Mr.Right

Clark defeats Babson 2-1 in OT and Babson must beat Coast Guard next weekend or the Beavers will be missing in the Newmac Playoffs for the 1st time..

Mr.Right

Noticed Kulik at Johnson and Wales has brought in a couple transfers from Bryant, Siena and Franklin Pierce...Their GK who has been solid all year came from Siena...Johnson and Wales and / or Norwich should give St.Joseph's a run for their money in the GNAC tourney

Mr.Right

Looking forward to this Newmac heavyweight battle tonight between WPI and Springfield..Have not seen WPI this year

Mr.Right

In a must win for ECONN to make the Little East tourney they are scoreless 0-0 at UMASS Boston....Announcer just mention that ECONN have lost 6 straight games on the road with their last win a solid victory at Hobart on the opening weekend