2017 NCAA Tournament

Started by Greek Tragedy, February 25, 2017, 04:55:17 PM

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Greek Tragedy

#270
So a 17-10 Oshkosh team making the tourney doesn't seem so bad now!

Minnesota's softball team was 54-3, Big 20 10 tourney and regular season champs and they didn't get seeded. Ouch!
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AO

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on May 16, 2017, 07:42:31 AM
So a 17-10 Oshkosh team making the tourney doesn't seem so bad now!

Minnesota's softball team was 54-3, Big 20 tourney and regular season champs and they didn't get seeded. Ouch!
There's unbelievable outrage over here and most of the people upset couldn't tell you where the Gophers play or name a player.  It's another strong argument to get rid of the RPI or other similar ranking system and go to a system that includes margin of victory so it matters more how you played against your schedule rather than merely who happened to be on the schedule.

Smitty Oom

http://deadspin.com/the-top-ranked-softball-team-in-the-country-is-somehow-1795244602?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

A lot of outrage here in MN! The Coaches Poll came out today and the Gopher's were the top ranked team... We thought we had Pool C disagreement between posters/committee, but this discrepancy is a whole new level!

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: AO on May 16, 2017, 10:58:48 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on May 16, 2017, 07:42:31 AM
So a 17-10 Oshkosh team making the tourney doesn't seem so bad now!

Minnesota's softball team was 54-3, Big 20 tourney and regular season champs and they didn't get seeded. Ouch!
There's unbelievable outrage over here and most of the people upset couldn't tell you where the Gophers play or name a player.  It's another strong argument to get rid of the RPI or other similar ranking system and go to a system that includes margin of victory so it matters more how you played against your schedule rather than merely who happened to be on the schedule.

Softball has a series of mercy rules (as do other sports)... making the margin of victory a tough thing to use as a measuring stick. Depending on the spread and at what point in the game... would affect that data. One team might beat someone by ten in five innings, but another might win by 15 or more because they had 9 after 5 and then scored 6 or more in a later inning. Too many variables that makes margin of victory a very bad, IMHO, measure involved in rankings and selections - not to mention the sportsmanship factor I think is just as important.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

KnightSlappy

Quote from: AO on May 16, 2017, 10:58:48 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on May 16, 2017, 07:42:31 AM
So a 17-10 Oshkosh team making the tourney doesn't seem so bad now!

Minnesota's softball team was 54-3, Big 20 tourney and regular season champs and they didn't get seeded. Ouch!
There's unbelievable outrage over here and most of the people upset couldn't tell you where the Gophers play or name a player.  It's another strong argument to get rid of the RPI or other similar ranking system and go to a system that includes margin of victory so it matters more how you played against your schedule rather than merely who happened to be on the schedule.


The Deadspin article says that Minnesota was No. 11 by RPI, so being an unseeded team was a committee decision that actually went against RPI to some degree. Also interesting that the committee had them No. 7 on May 6 but dropped them out of the Top 16 after they went 6-0 to finish the year. It really just seems like the committee made a mistake.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: KnightSlappy on May 16, 2017, 03:18:22 PM
Quote from: AO on May 16, 2017, 10:58:48 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on May 16, 2017, 07:42:31 AM
So a 17-10 Oshkosh team making the tourney doesn't seem so bad now!

Minnesota's softball team was 54-3, Big 20 tourney and regular season champs and they didn't get seeded. Ouch!
There's unbelievable outrage over here and most of the people upset couldn't tell you where the Gophers play or name a player.  It's another strong argument to get rid of the RPI or other similar ranking system and go to a system that includes margin of victory so it matters more how you played against your schedule rather than merely who happened to be on the schedule.


The Deadspin article says that Minnesota was No. 11 by RPI, so being an unseeded team was a committee decision that actually went against RPI to some degree. Also interesting that the committee had them No. 7 on May 6 but dropped them out of the Top 16 after they went 6-0 to finish the year. It really just seems like the committee made a mistake.

What? That happens? ROFL
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

AO

Quote from: KnightSlappy on May 16, 2017, 03:18:22 PM
The Deadspin article says that Minnesota was No. 11 by RPI, so being an unseeded team was a committee decision that actually went against RPI to some degree. Also interesting that the committee had them No. 7 on May 6 but dropped them out of the Top 16 after they went 6-0 to finish the year. It really just seems like the committee made a mistake.
They're not admitting to any mistake.  Their official statement: https://twitter.com/JaceFrederick/status/864244645324353536


Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on May 16, 2017, 03:06:55 PM
Softball has a series of mercy rules (as do other sports)... making the margin of victory a tough thing to use as a measuring stick. Depending on the spread and at what point in the game... would affect that data. One team might beat someone by ten in five innings, but another might win by 15 or more because they had 9 after 5 and then scored 6 or more in a later inning. Too many variables that makes margin of victory a very bad, IMHO, measure involved in rankings and selections - not to mention the sportsmanship factor I think is just as important.
The difference between winning by 10 or 15 (a comfortable win) is practically nothing for most margin of victory rating systems.  For softball you could make it have zero impact.   Here's how Massey explains how it works with football scores:
QuoteThe main version does consider scoring margin, but its effect is diminished as the game becomes a blowout. The score of each game is translated into a number between 0 and 1. For example 30-29 might give 0.5270, while 45-21 gives 0.9433 and 56-3 gives around 0.9998

The maximum is topped at 1, so the curve flattens out for blowout scores. In addition, I do a Bayesian correction to reward each winner, regardless of the game's score.

The net effect is that there is no incentive to run up the score. However, a "comfortable" margin (say 10 points) is preferred to a narrow margin (say 3 points).

In summary, winning games against quality competition overshadows blowout scores against inferior opponents. Each week, the results from the entire season are re-evaluated based on the latest results. Consistent winners are rewarded, and a blowout score has only marginal effect on a team's rating.

Ryan Stoppable

I would argue that baseball and softball have more in-game variability than, say, basketball or especially football, so the 54-3 record should outweigh the lesser strength of schedule you get in the Big Ten.

The committee obviously sees things differently.
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NCAA Appearances
Football: 17, 16, 15, 09, 05
MBB: 04
WBB: 17, 10, 06, 04, 02, 01, 99
Baseball: 03, 02 (College World Series)