Author Topic: New York Region 2018  (Read 4345 times)

Offline John McGraw

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New York Region 2018
« on: March 29, 2018, 01:02:52 pm »
Early season thoughts for 2018....

The weather has been, as it usually is, awful. A few big league series this weekend - RIT/Union and Ithaca/St. John Fisher - hopefully will not be impacted by the rain/snow expected in upstate New York on Saturday/Sunday. Pretty sure though because of the holiday on Sunday that a lot of teams are looking at Friday/Saturday sets as opposed to the usual Saturday/Sunday.

Also downstate, NYU is 15-1 at last check and the Violets host perennial Pool B favorite Wash U this weekend at MCU Park in Brooklyn. Didn't realize these two were rained out in St Louis last year - thanks CespedesBBQ.

More thoughts after the weekend.

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2018, 11:48:11 am »
OK. I have no idea about NYU...but with that record one would assume they would be in the top 6.

I have no order, and, from looking at schedules and whatnot, it's almost impossible to separate these team...my 6:
NYU
Oswego St.
Cortland St.
St. John Fisher
Union
Ithaca

RIT, is also right there, they just haven't played many games...

Offline sjfcards

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2018, 10:45:25 pm »
Does anyone know why Jim Dawson is not pitching for Fisher this year? He is listed on the roster but has yet to pitch an inning.
GO FISHER!!!

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2018, 04:22:14 pm »
Three days into April, here is where I see the region right now.

1. Cortland
2. Oswego
3. St John Fisher
4. Union/RIT
5. NYU
6. Ithaca

After somewhat of a shaky start, Cortland has ripped off eight wins in a row with the last loss coming as part of a twin bill down south with Brockport. Overall, Cortland's pitching has been really good and three weekend starters all have ERA's under 2.50. Fourteen pitchers have made multiple appearances. The biggest number that jumps out to me is defense - C-State has a .980 fielding percentage compared to just .948 for opponents. Cortland has turned opponents poor fielding into runs with 33 unearned runs scored compared to just 13 given up. Red Dragons ranked in the top 10 nationally both in team ERA and fielding percentage. Cortland has league tests remaining on the road at New Paltz and Oswego back-to-back weekends to close the month but first must entertain Fredonia this weekend. 

Oswego, like Cortland, has won eight in row. The Lakers haven't lost since getting upended by Fredonia in the first game of a SUNYAC series on March 15 in Florida. The defending SUNYAC champs lost a lot from last year but continue to sail along against what is a top 20 national strength of schedule. Mike Dellicarri is having a monster season in filling the shoes of the departed Eric Hamilton already with 33 RBI; his 1.81 RBI/gm is second in Division III. Oswego has four regulars hitting .350 or higher. The Lakers are hitting 10 points as a team higher than the Red Dragons. Oswego's team ERA is a shade under four though Robert Donnelly, he of the fantastic head shot photo, and Reston Petit have done a good job topping the weekend rotation. Oswego heads to Oneonta this weekend and the Lakers also still must tangle with pesky Brockport.

St. John Fisher swept Ithaca in a doubleheader last Saturday to move to 5-1 in the Empire 8 after dropping the series opener. The Cardinals are 8-1 in their last nine games with the lone loss to Ithaca. Like Cortland and Oswego, Fisher played a challenging OOC schedule to start the season. SJFC's offense has already launched 17 home runs in 19 games, four batters have at least three home runs. It's a young but experienced Fisher team that returned more than 20 players from last year's NCAA outfit. Majority of Fisher's position player starters are sophomores though the big bopper is still Scott Eisenmenger who already has accumulated 22 RBI. Anthony Brophy has been solid as Fisher's ace and a pair of freshmen round out the conference rotation. It should be noted that Jim Dawson, a combined 15-3 through his first two years, has yet to make an appearance. The back end of Fisher's bullpen will also be a strength with two of three regulars sporting ERA's under 1.50.

It's hard to separate Union and RIT here as the two Liberty favorites split last weekend in Troy with RIT sweeping Friday's double dip and then bowing to the Dutchmen on Saturday. Neither team has played a lot. RIT has played 10 games, Union 12. Since getting back from Florida, RIT has only played four games - all against Union. Based on RIT's returning mound cast, the Orange and Black are still among the Liberty favorites with a deep pitching staff. The Tigers also played UMASS Boston tough in Florida. Union meanwhile is hitting the ball extremely well though again, as with RIT, it's a small sample size. Union is home this weekend against an always tough Clarkson team while RIT goes to Bard.

NYU is off to its best start in program history at now 16-4. I'm hesitant to put NYU higher here just because the Violets SOS is 304. Still, the Violets have been impressive overall against the teams on their schedule. NYU won 12 in a row to start the season before splitting with Haverford at home. NYU has six regulars hitting .300 or better and three of those hitters have at least 26 RBI led by Coltrane Tait. The most eye-popping number is NYU's OBP at .448. The Violets have drawn 112 walks already and have nearly an even BB:K ratio through 20 games. Pitching wise, the Violets have been really good too with the staff having compiled a 2.56 ERA. Carmine Serapilio-Frank has won five of his six starts and is among the top 25 nationally in ERA (.89). The next three weeks will tell a little more about NYU as they'll be on the road at RPI and then UAA foes Case Western and Brandeis.

Ithaca took out St. John Fisher last Friday but dropped a Saturday double dip in Pittsford to fall back to .500. Ithaca has a lot of pieces back from last year's NCAA tournament team which at least projects them into my rankings. The Bombers, topped the Little brothers, and have depth in the starting pitching rotation with five potential starters though the Bombers are 2-4 in the E8 after facing Stevens and St. John Fisher on back-to-back weekends. With the Ducks and Cardinals in the rear view mirror, the schedule becomes more favorable in April.

After that, Brockport from the SUNYAC is lurking as well as RPI. Downstate, the Skyline has been beating up on itself. Merchant Marine has the best record of any league team at 17-3 and 5-1 in the conference. St. Joseph's (L.I.) split with Merchant Marine this past weekend. Conference favorite Maritime is 4-2 in the league and in fifth place based on winning percentage.

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2018, 10:20:45 am »
Well how can one dispute any of that analysis??  I think when all is said and done, it will be the same characters in the regionals.  It would be nice to see most of the teams stay but that won't happen. 

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2018, 03:49:15 pm »
Well how can one dispute any of that analysis??  I think when all is said and done, it will be the same characters in the regionals.  It would be nice to see most of the teams stay but that won't happen.

I'm fine with some of the top teams being sent elsewhere as the top teams have shown they can very much compete and win in at other regional sites. The NCAA tournament is more of a national tournament now than in years past . Besides, New York is smaller compared to some of the other regions in the northeastern US - i.e. New England and Mid-Atlantic. It is only natural that some of those teams get sent to New York.

On your other point, I'm 100% with wanting to see some diversity in terms of power teams in the region. Though I feel like the balance of power has shifted in recent years from what was a troika of Ithaca-Cortland-RPI moving to Cortland-St. John Fisher-Oswego. Given Brandon Potter & Scott Landers a lot of credit for creating consistent winners that can compete on the national stage. I think it's up to other schools to get better so that they can challenge the top tier teams.

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2018, 03:51:53 pm »
Heading into today's big non-conference tilts, not much has changed IMO.

1. Cortland
2. Oswego
3. St John Fisher
4. NYU
5. Union
6. Ithaca

I'll update this with thoughts later. That said, it's a big week for Oswego. The Lakers have Fisher at home today and then will host Brockport this weekend. NYU continues to roll and after a sweep of RPI in Troy with a lot of offense, I think the Violets could make a run at the NCAA tournament. They still have Case and Emory on their schedule.

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2018, 09:36:47 pm »
After doing a little research i will go with this order taking todays games into account
1. Cortland
2. St john fisher
3. Nyu
4. Oswego
5. Union
6. Stevens

Nyu on strength of decisive sweep at rpi
Fisher on head to head at oswego and overall strength of schedule
Stevens on taking 2 of 3 from ithaca

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2018, 09:08:06 am »
After doing a little research i will go with this order taking todays games into account
1. Cortland
2. St john fisher
3. Nyu
4. Oswego
5. Union
6. Stevens

Nyu on strength of decisive sweep at rpi
Fisher on head to head at oswego and overall strength of schedule
Stevens on taking 2 of 3 from ithaca

Agreed on flipping Fisher and Oswego after yesterday's game. Will say that I'm still partial to Dellicarri in the POY race but that's another topic for another time. I still like Ithaca's pitching long term and IC beat a very good Redlands team on the road. Stevens certainly in the conversation in the next group along with Merchant Marine, St. Joseph's (LI), a couple Liberty teams, etc.

Offline jdex

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2018, 11:12:47 am »
IMO ......

    All about pitching as far as rankings. And when teams face opposition top hurlers, and when it's a good time to use them. For sure winning a conference automatic bid is foremost. That said, going up against strong out of conference team and having success also figures, though not as much as the automatic bid trail.

   Having a deep, reliable  staff of utmost importance ....

   Still favor Cortland and Oswego 1-2 followed interchangeably by NYU and Fisher, then whoever.
   Oswego has certainly shown a lot of offense to go with veteran mound staff. Coach Landers certainly has to be concerned with his defense. Cortland as usual took its time finding its way. Plenty of lineup shifting early and short showcasing stints on the pitching side. Coach Brown now as shown set lineup and a pitching rotation. It's the way he works. Can't argue much with the results.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2018, 10:44:25 pm by jdex »

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2018, 12:35:20 pm »
Honestly, I would consider Fisher at 1.  I know this is blasphemy lol, but, they haven't played Wells, Cazanovia, etc...not league here in NY.  Both Fisher and Cortland played challenging southern schedules...as did Oswego.  Would be nice to see these teams play more often. Cortland with non-league vs. Elmira and Canton coming up, not exactly the giants of the NY region.  Fisher vs. Cortland should be an annual game.  Let's hope all the NY region gets another year of good representation in the NCAA

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2018, 01:55:27 pm »
Honestly, I would consider Fisher at 1.  I know this is blasphemy lol, but, they haven't played Wells, Cazanovia, etc...not league here in NY.  Both Fisher and Cortland played challenging southern schedules...as did Oswego.  Would be nice to see these teams play more often. Cortland with non-league vs. Elmira and Canton coming up, not exactly the giants of the NY region.  Fisher vs. Cortland should be an annual game.  Let's hope all the NY region gets another year of good representation in the NCAA

It would be nice if Fisher and Cortland played a little more often but it is what it is. SOS for all three schools - Cortland, Fisher, Oswego, is top 100 out of nearly 400 Division III baseball playing schools. Goal for all three teams is an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament as a Pool A and to get that, you have to win your conference. Outside of that, play whom you want though deal with the consequences of said scheduling.

Will say that Cortland has big road tests coming up to close the month at New Paltz and Oswego plus a key non-league home date with Rochester. Fisher meanwhile has to worry about Stevens this weekend plus a few games with local foe RIT. I do like Fisher aggressively scheduling Mid-Atlantic heavyweight Keystone right before the conference tournament. There's always a good possibility the Giants will be sent to New York as well come NCAA time.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2018, 06:30:43 pm »
Well how can one dispute any of that analysis??  I think when all is said and done, it will be the same characters in the regionals.  It would be nice to see most of the teams stay but that won't happen.
I do like Pool A's to stay in region as best as possible and move the Pool C's out to another. That helps give us a flavor of the relative strengths of the conferences and regions.  The travel distances are really conducive to shuffling the regions in the NY/NE/ME/MA area. There are so many Pool A's in the Northeast that it makes sense to move some teams southward and westward for Regionals.

Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2018, 01:14:08 pm »
Well how can one dispute any of that analysis??  I think when all is said and done, it will be the same characters in the regionals.  It would be nice to see most of the teams stay but that won't happen.
I do like Pool A's to stay in region as best as possible and move the Pool C's out to another. That helps give us a flavor of the relative strengths of the conferences and regions.  The travel distances are really conducive to shuffling the regions in the NY/NE/ME/MA area. There are so many Pool A's in the Northeast that it makes sense to move some teams southward and westward for Regionals.

I would favor a rule that if your x miles (lets make it an hours drive or 50 miles) that you have to go to that regional.  I also would not have a team drive past a regional to get to another.  Lets let these young men play in front of a crowd.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2018, 08:51:40 pm »
Well how can one dispute any of that analysis??  I think when all is said and done, it will be the same characters in the regionals.  It would be nice to see most of the teams stay but that won't happen.
I do like Pool A's to stay in region as best as possible and move the Pool C's out to another. That helps give us a flavor of the relative strengths of the conferences and regions.  The travel distances are really conducive to shuffling the regions in the NY/NE/ME/MA area. There are so many Pool A's in the Northeast that it makes sense to move some teams southward and westward for Regionals.

I would favor a rule that if your x miles (lets make it an hours drive or 50 miles) that you have to go to that regional. I also would not have a team drive past a regional to get to another.  Lets let these young men play in front of a crowd.
Yes, Jim. Common sense.  +1!