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Messages - TitanPride

#1
Berry just had a chance to get back in the game but the Tommies held from first and goal from the 5. Tommies 22-0 at half.
#2
General football / Re: 2017 Playoffs
November 12, 2017, 10:47:13 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 12, 2017, 09:57:38 PM
I *think* St. Thomas would be chosen to host a game with Berry.  It's not overly obvious though in the way that I think it is obvious that Wittenberg is the #2 seed in the Mount Union region, even though they are on a different line the other #2's. 

It's certainly a closer call than I thought initially. 

And as I'm thinking more about this now...last week the regional rankings were as follows:
2S HSU
3S Berry

3W St. Thomas
4W Linfield

If they're sending Hardin-Simmons to Linfield, and Linfield is behind St. Thomas and Berry is behind Hardin-Simmons...then Berry is behind Linfield who is behind St. Thomas.  Clear, right?  I think St. Thomas is the host for a second round game vs. Berry if both teams win this weekend.

Completely understand the logic, but I went back to the brackets from 2011 to 2017 and every second round host has come from the line where Berry/Wittenberg/Trine/Wesley sit. If the NCAA is consistent with the bracketing from the last few years, it would seem to me that these are this year's 2 seeds.
#3
Quote from: jknezek on November 06, 2017, 12:15:41 PM
Quote from: TitanPride on November 06, 2017, 12:03:46 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 06, 2017, 11:11:37 AM
Let's give it another go. We have some clarity from the committee, so I think I'll be close again this week. Again, this is what I think the committee will do, not how I actually rank them for my SRFP.

1) 9-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 86 SOS) -- SOS drop does not matter
2) 7-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 66 SOS)  -- Committee showed a preference last week and I don't think it's going to change. Rightly so.
3) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 129 SOS) -- Trinity will provide a slight boost to SOS, but not enough to move up.
4) 9-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 231 SOS) -- not much of an SOS boost, but that's a big comparative score vs W&J
5) 9-0 W&J (0-0 RRO, 207 SOS) -- SOS plummeting plus common opponent score moves them below Case
6) 8-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 25 SOS) --  I don't see how Case can stay below, despite SOS. JHU was above Centre, I think that stays the case
7) 8-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 43 SOS) -- huge SOS boost should push them above Centre this week
8) 8-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 143 SOS) -- unfortunately SOS keeps plummeting
9) 7-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 178 SOS) -- Not much of a way to move. SOS will drop again
10) 6-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 21 SOS) -- I don't know who else you put here? That resume is pretty good. 2 RRO games, a huge SOS.

Drops: none for me, Westminster for the committee.

Long shots: How can you go these over Hendrix?
7-2 W&L, 0-1, 55 SOS
7-2 CMU, 0-1, 206 SOS
6-2 ETBU, 0-1, 205 SOS
6-3 Westminster 0-2, 18 SOS


*** Modified to account for Wally's timely correction! ***

As a fairly new observer to this process, I've enjoyed reading your projections over the last couple of weeks.  Question for you -- Hardin Simmons' SOS fell from the 30s last week to 66.  If we take the names off of these resumes, what's the logic behind slotting H-S above JHU? JHU has one more in-region win, a win against a regionally ranked opponent and a really solid SOS.

I have the week 2 rankings as:

1.) UMHB
2.) Berry
3.) JHU
4.) F&M
5.) HSU
6.) W&J
7.) CWRU
8.) Centre
9.) Huntingdon
10.) Hendrix

It's a good question, but I think it's a bit of common sense out of the committee. Namely that anyone else playing UMHB would also add another loss to their resume. It falls under the "results against Regionally Ranked Opponents." They aren't just looking for win/loss, but the actual game. JHU took a loss to a team that is struggling to be relevant. H-SU took a loss to a team that will fight for a back to back title. So while I think SOS works as a kind of seriously flawed "tie breaker" if you are indecisive between teams, for me a good example was last week between Westminster and Hendrix, I just don't think anyone is really all that indecisive between H-SU and JHU.

Thanks for the explanation, jknezek. Good to understand that not all RROs are treated the same.
#4
Quote from: jknezek on November 06, 2017, 11:11:37 AM
Let's give it another go. We have some clarity from the committee, so I think I'll be close again this week. Again, this is what I think the committee will do, not how I actually rank them for my SRFP.

1) 9-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 86 SOS) -- SOS drop does not matter
2) 7-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 66 SOS)  -- Committee showed a preference last week and I don't think it's going to change. Rightly so.
3) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 129 SOS) -- Trinity will provide a slight boost to SOS, but not enough to move up.
4) 9-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 231 SOS) -- not much of an SOS boost, but that's a big comparative score vs W&J
5) 9-0 W&J (0-0 RRO, 207 SOS) -- SOS plummeting plus common opponent score moves them below Case
6) 8-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 25 SOS) --  I don't see how Case can stay below, despite SOS. JHU was above Centre, I think that stays the case
7) 8-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 43 SOS) -- huge SOS boost should push them above Centre this week
8) 8-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 143 SOS) -- unfortunately SOS keeps plummeting
9) 7-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 178 SOS) -- Not much of a way to move. SOS will drop again
10) 6-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 21 SOS) -- I don't know who else you put here? That resume is pretty good. 2 RRO games, a huge SOS.

Drops: none for me, Westminster for the committee.

Long shots: How can you go these over Hendrix?
7-2 W&L, 0-1, 55 SOS
7-2 CMU, 0-1, 206 SOS
6-2 ETBU, 0-1, 205 SOS
6-3 Westminster 0-2, 18 SOS


*** Modified to account for Wally's timely correction! ***

As a fairly new observer to this process, I've enjoyed reading your projections over the last couple of weeks.  Question for you -- Hardin Simmons' SOS fell from the 30s last week to 66.  If we take the names off of these resumes, what's the logic behind slotting H-S above JHU? JHU has one more in-region win, a win against a regionally ranked opponent and a really solid SOS.

I have the week 2 rankings as:

1.) UMHB
2.) Berry
3.) JHU
4.) F&M
5.) HSU
6.) W&J
7.) CWRU
8.) Centre
9.) Huntingdon
10.) Hendrix
#5
Any ideas on attendance for Saturday? I'm planning to attend and wondering how early I'll need to get there to get a decent spot.  Assuming it will be a good crowd but no where near the regular season game given it's Thanksgiving weekend.  Any recommendations?
#6
Per the Pantagraph, Donovan Laible is injured and will not start at QB against Elmhurst.  Outside chance Jack Warner gets cleared to play but sounds like IWU will be starting their 4th QB of the season.

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/football/staying-outside-perfectly-fine-for-iwu-s-klein/article_5045b18c-bac2-5af7-a414-3b7bef78a19f.html

#8
Quote from: AndOne on October 17, 2014, 03:34:21 PM
Quote from: TitanPride on October 17, 2014, 01:58:59 PM
Quote from: kiko on October 17, 2014, 01:38:20 PM
Quote from: USee on October 17, 2014, 12:42:19 AM
Wally did a halfway report in the NCAC board and I thought it was insightful so I put together some thoughts on the CCIW halfway through:


IWU - D+.  You hit the reason right on the head -- their QB issues aside, the Albion and Simpson results were well below what I think was expected of the Titans this year.

Thank goodness you weren't one of my teachers.  Beating a team whose only other loss is at #13 Stevens Point by 11 is well below what was expected?  I don't know what you thought IWU would be at the outset of the season, but I was thinking it would be a major rebuilding year for a team who lost by 34 in round 1 of the playoffs, lost 30+ seniors and was starting a freshman QB.

To me, so far, the Carthage loss is the big disappointment.  I put that one on the defense as much or moreso than the offense.  They needed to step up and completely shut down a team but didn't.  The Simpson loss?  Doesn't look great now, but again, I think most realistic Titan fans thought this was going to be a rebuilding season coming in and going on the road to play a mid-tier IIAC team was going to be a challenge.

I snuck a look at USee's grade book for IWU's 5 games so far to see exactly how each game was graded:

Franklin--82 (B-)---> Only a 7 point win, but against a team well regarded in the pre-season.
Albion----70 (C)----> Another slim 7 point win against a very average team.
Simpson-42 (F)---->  Playing WITH the starting QB, an unexpected loss to another average team.
Carthage-54 (F+)--> Another unexpected loss, but a few more points for playing WITHOUT the starting QB.
Millikan---92 (A-)--> A dominant win while playing with a NEW QB.

That's a total of 340 points. Divided by 5 is 68 which is equivalent to USee's D+  :D

Only at North Central is a 54 an F+  ;)
#9
Quote from: kiko on October 17, 2014, 01:38:20 PM
Quote from: USee on October 17, 2014, 12:42:19 AM
Wally did a halfway report in the NCAC board and I thought it was insightful so I put together some thoughts on the CCIW halfway through:


IWU - D+.  You hit the reason right on the head -- their QB issues aside, the Albion and Simpson results were well below what I think was expected of the Titans this year.

Thank goodness you weren't one of my teachers.  Beating a team whose only other loss is at #13 Stevens Point by 11 is well below what was expected?  I don't know what you thought IWU would be at the outset of the season, but I was thinking it would be a major rebuilding year for a team who lost by 34 in round 1 of the playoffs, lost 30+ seniors and was starting a freshman QB.

To me, so far, the Carthage loss is the big disappointment.  I put that one on the defense as much or moreso than the offense.  They needed to step up and completely shut down a team but didn't.  The Simpson loss?  Doesn't look great now, but again, I think most realistic Titan fans thought this was going to be a rebuilding season coming in and going on the road to play a mid-tier IIAC team was going to be a challenge. 
#10
Quote from: fulbakdad on October 12, 2014, 04:38:51 AM
Hey Titan,  SNC would need them to lose 2 of those games in order to take the first spot I believe.  Because if they only lose one then SNC would lose the first tie breaker (head to head)......

Exactly right, fulbakdad.  My thought is only Macalester is left to challenge Carroll.  They are at Beloit and home against Lawrence over the next two weeks.  I think they should be able to get both of those.  Then that sets up home against Carroll and at Norbert.  Guessing those are two losses, but would be a fun finish if they are undefeated.  I think Mac running the table is the only thing that keeps Carroll out of the Championship.
#11
I think you can pencil Carroll into the championship game.  I don't see them losing to Beloit, Lawrence or Ripon.  Maybe the trip to St. Paul in November gets them? 
#12
IC beats Monmouth 31-24.  Someone else will have to provide the details.
#13
Bolden reportedly out as Titans QB after an appendectomy this morning. 
#14
IWU's starting QB, Jack Warner, is out sick. 
#15
Region 5 football (Central-ish) / Re: Midwest Conference
September 26, 2014, 03:24:11 PM
I'm taking St. Norbert and Monmouth in the big game matchups.  IC's defense is a huge cause for concern, and Monmouth had two very impressive OOC wins.