BB: USAC: USA South Athletic Conference

Started by narch, December 30, 2005, 10:58:27 PM

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Spence

Quote from: PNeal7 on April 21, 2013, 07:41:28 PM
There is a difference between the 12th Round and the 38th Round in terms of getting to the majors. If you took every player ever drafted, players drafted in Rounds 1-20 have gotten to the show (and stuck) at a much higher percentage than players in the later rounds.

I didn't pick that round randomly. After the 10th, the percentages level off significantly. 11-20 is not much different than 21-40.

Also, your comment of "...teams do a better job drafting than the scouts do scouting" is idiotic. Where/how do you think the MLB teams draft? Off of what scouts see, say, think, etc. A local area scout sees a kid he thinks is a talent, if the player is worth it he calls in a cross-checker to come check him out, and based upon the cross-checkers thoughts he runs communication back to the big club. I may be missing a few parts of the process (Catfish can confirm) but it all revolves around the scouting.

My point is that the teams are good at taking the information they're given and using it intelligently, hence having more 5th rounders make it than 10th rounders. But the information they're being given leads to a 50-50 result in the very first round, and markedly worse even in the 2nd and 3rd. I don't think I've ever had a job where you could screw up the easiest part of your job half the time and keep it.

You keep referring to the 1st Round being a 50-50 shot of making it to the majors. I have no clue what the numbers are, but let's assume your assumption is correct. If 1st Rounders have a 50-50 shot of making it to the big leagues, then players drafted in the 38th Round have about a 5-95 shot of not making it to the big leagues, so the scouts are still getting it right. They are drafting the players who have the greatest percentage (50-50 according to your all-knowing information) the earliest.

Scouts don't draft. Teams do. Ultimately the scout doesn't have the final call.

PNeal7

Where do you think the teams get their information from?

narch

Spence...it's time for you to tell us YOUR solution...your kvetching is getting really old

108 Stitches

OK I will let this one go. I think you have a pretty good handle on DIII ball - even with your obvious bias, but based on your responses you don't have too good a handle on the pro process. Actually you are not alone as there are a lot of rules that most people do not understand and teams will do lots of moves with players to maximize their control over them so they can delay the time until they can declare for free agency. Frankly most never make it that far.

I have some of the stats somewhere but only 7% of all drafted players make it to the MLB. There is a very high percentage that make it and "get a cup of coffee" and are done after a year or two. If I can find the stats I will post them, It is a very brutal business, disguised as a kids game.....but it is magical ;)


Spence

#4204
Quote from: 108 Stitches on April 21, 2013, 11:13:57 PM
OK I will let this one go. I think you have a pretty good handle on DIII ball - even with your obvious bias, but based on your responses you don't have too good a handle on the pro process. Actually you are not alone as there are a lot of rules that most people do not understand and teams will do lots of moves with players to maximize their control over them so they can delay the time until they can declare for free agency. Frankly most never make it that far.

I have some of the stats somewhere but only 7% of all drafted players make it to the MLB. There is a very high percentage that make it and "get a cup of coffee" and are done after a year or two. If I can find the stats I will post them, It is a very brutal business, disguised as a kids game.....but it is magical ;)

I have a pretty good handle on the pro process...enough to know that scouts aren't the ones making the calls on draft day. Front office folks may ask them for advice and have a head scout in the war room, but they don't have the say so. Also enough to have known some pretty sketchy associate scouts and seen some really good D-III players not get drafted and have to go through independent ball (and sometimes stand out there but never get signed). I spent an entire season following the Appalachian League one year. I went to every Appy League park except Kingsport that summer. Part of a couple of others I spent around the Frontier League. I saw Adam Wainwright's pro debut, along with about 20 other people. It's been a while, but i can't imagine it's changed that much.

My solution, if you want to call it that, is to look for more than just potential. Guys that can do things rather than guys that might be able to do things someday. Especially for college players...high school guys I can see handling differently. But for a guy that's been in college 3-4 years, seems to me that if he hasn't managed to figure the game out enough to have success, then there's a good chance he never will. Conversely, if a guy is a standout player in college, chances are he'll continue to play well as a pro.

I think assigning potential is a dangerous thing. I like what an NFL scout said about Tavon Austin's ability to learn an NFL playbook. He said (paraphrasing) "he's not a quick study and it's going to take some time, but he'll get it because it's important to him. He'll put in the work." Some guys will put in the work and get more out of their bodies and minds than many thought they had. Others won't. But if you set limits on guys that have already shown they'll put in the work to be standout players, then you'll never know what they really can do. You rarely know how good a guy can really be, no matter how much you think you do.

PNeal7

Spence - As much as I disagree with a lot of what you have said, you did make one very solid point in your last post: There is a human element to everything in life, and that is true for baseball as well. Some players are destined to be great, and refuse to let anything get in the way. They refuse to let anybody out work them. Others may try to slack a bit on the practice side and rely on God given talent. Scouts do their very best to determine what kind of a character, work ethic, and morals a kid has, but one never truly knows until they get out on their own (especially with drafting high school players). I mean, Josh Hamilton was considered to be one of the cleanest, hard working, high level of morals, and hard working kids to ever come out, and we saw where his career took him.

I disagree with your point that if a guy is a standout player in college, chances are he'll continue to play well as a pro (especially for D3 kids). I love to see as many D3 kids go pro as possible; after all, I played D3 ball; however, it is just a different level that players who play lower level of collegiate ball are not typically prepared for. A typical D3 hitter may see 1-2 pitchers a year than can touch 90 consistently, and if they can, chances are their secondary pitches aren't all that great or they'd be playing a higher level of ball (there certainly are exceptions, like Herget, Chrismon, and several others). Once they get to that next level, they see that kind of stuff day in and day out.

With our VBL team, we tend to shy away from D3 hitters. Not because they may not be able to play at that level; but it takes a while to make an adjustment to that type of pitching. There is a learning curve, and by the time they figure it out, we are halfway (or more) through our season. Connor Madden (CNU) was one of the few D3 hitters we've had that from Day 1 showed he could play/hit at that level. But for the most part we stick with hitters who have seen something similar to the caliber of pitching they will see all summer. Now, we have no issues signing D3 pitchers (I think we've had 5 or 6 in our 2 years so far, with a few . more coming this summer, Chrismon from CNU and Tucci from VWC). We are just a bit hesitant towards position players.

Spence

I appreciate your thoughts previous to the VBL point, so I'll skip to that.

I understand that it's hard to get a bead on some D-III hitters, but this doesn't seem to bear itself out in other instances. Derek Smith was 3rd on his team in OBP in Cape Cod last summer (didn't get as many ABs probably because he was a D-III guy, but performed when he did), Josh Ungerbuehler hit .300 in the Great Lakes League, Aaron Hopper did really well the year before in the same league, there are quite a number of players in the Northwoods League from the power programs in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Colin Radack and Dan Fiorito are position players that made Baseball America's top 10 prospects in their leagues (Great Lakes and New York I think). Wes Meadows hit .302 with power for Edenton. Sean Ryan and Connor Bierfeldt were standouts in the Futures League. I'm sure there are more but it's kind of tedious to find them.

And that's just who I recognize as being D-III by name, since many leagues have erased last year's rosters from their sites.

narch

Quote from: Spence on April 22, 2013, 02:11:26 AM
My solution, if you want to call it that, is to look for more than just potential. Guys that can do things rather than guys that might be able to do things someday. Especially for college players...high school guys I can see handling differently. But for a guy that's been in college 3-4 years, seems to me that if he hasn't managed to figure the game out enough to have success, then there's a good chance he never will. Conversely, if a guy is a standout player in college, chances are he'll continue to play well as a pro.
there isn't a major professional league that treats its draft as a reward for a good collegiate career, which is what you're suggesting here - in every major sport, players are drafted for their upside and potential, things they might do, not things they've done - with all due respect, i think the teams, which have a lot more skin in the game than you do, have devised a superior system - it's not fool-proof, but it seems to be working

narch

#4208
you also seem to have lots of venom toward scouts, and you've talked frequently about d3 guys who scouts "missed"...this isn't going to be super popular on this site, but most of the time if a scout has "missed" a potential prospect, the following list of folks have, too:

scouts when the player was a high school senior
any division 1 coaching staff
any division 2 coaching staff
all of the good junior college coaching staffs

i know there are exceptions and there are actually d3 players who turn down d1/d2/juco offers (especially the latter two options), but the bottom line is that scouts aren't the only one that missed out on this special talent...when you think about it, the fact that d3 guys get drafted at all speaks directly against your points about scouts "missing" guys...scouts are so anxious to find talent that they will go find guys who were overlooked by college coaches whose livelihood is directly tied to finding talented players - chris perry was on campus and played 2 years of fall ball at uncw but couldn't crack the spring roster, and he was drafted in the top half of the draft...i'd say the uncw coaching staff "missed" him, and he was literally right under their nose!

guys who have tools that project to potential at the next level get drafted, guys who don't, don't

narch

spence - if you want further proof that minor league ball is about major league potential, look no further than blake maxwell...

at 26, maxwell put up the following line between AA and AAA

73.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 65 K, 21 BB, approx. .240 BAA, 16 saves

for his career, he put up the following numbers http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/67024, which are very respectable...at the AA and AAA level he had a 3.92 era in 240+ innings with a 2.5/1 K/BB rate

at 27 he is out of professional baseball

why? because the big league clubs (every one of them) felt like they had seen his full potential and his tools didn't project

if blake maxwell doesn't get a chance after putting up solid numbers at AA and AAA ball, why should you expect some .370 hitting, 5'11/175lb d3 shortstop with below average power, speed and arm strength (if those things were above average, he likely would have been drafted) to get a shot?

Catfishncwc

#4210
Narch,
Buddy Hernandez was in the same situation in the Braves organization.  He spent at least 3 years at AAA and never got up to big club.  He had some really good stats but after 2007 and a 3.13 ERA that year he was out of baseball.  If you would have looked at his A and AA stats and 1st two years of AAA you would of thought he was on the fast track to the bigs.   
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Spence

#4211
Quote from: narch on April 22, 2013, 01:53:29 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 22, 2013, 02:11:26 AM
My solution, if you want to call it that, is to look for more than just potential. Guys that can do things rather than guys that might be able to do things someday. Especially for college players...high school guys I can see handling differently. But for a guy that's been in college 3-4 years, seems to me that if he hasn't managed to figure the game out enough to have success, then there's a good chance he never will. Conversely, if a guy is a standout player in college, chances are he'll continue to play well as a pro.
there isn't a major professional league that treats its draft as a reward for a good collegiate career, which is what you're suggesting here -

No, it really isn't. But you don't seem to be alone in your misunderstanding. I pretty much don't care anymore. Scouts can keep overlooking guys in favor of 6-4 guys with 6 ERAs for all I care.

As for replies to your other posts, I kind of feel like you're making my point for me. It verges into things I don't really want to go into detail about though. Suffice it to say that some programs and organizations are better at spotting and developing talent than others. Some programs can take high school players that were overlooked and turn them into prospects. Some can't. Sometimes they're taking guys that no one thought could be players and making them players, and others times they aren't. I've seen guys turn down D-I invites to play D-III. Doesn't happen as often as it used to, but still happens. Probably should happen more often...not sure why you'd rather go to a low D-I program that will never win anything and has no history of success over a top D-III.

IMO, a few of the top D-III coaches are among the best in the game at any level at doing that. You look at how many times it's happened and you have to realize it's not an accident. Sometimes guys end up getting drafted and sometimes they don't.

USASfan

Why are some teams from the USA south still playing? Only team I see getting in is Methodist because they won the tourney. CNU, I believe has had too many bad losses. If they get in that is rediculous. Baseball is too political.

Spence

Quote from: USASfan on April 22, 2013, 04:21:48 PM
Why are some teams from the USA south still playing? Only team I see getting in is Methodist because they won the tourney. CNU, I believe has had too many bad losses. If they get in that is rediculous. Baseball is too political.

The games were already scheduled. The USAS tournament is the earliest in the country (thanks, Averett!). It would be unfair to the opponent to just cancel those games.

PNeal7

I actually see players deciding to play D3 ball over D1 ball more often these days. It doesn't always happen right out of high school, but after redshirting one year and riding pine a 2nd year, plenty of kids transfer to smaller schools to get more PT. I played with several guys at CNU (myself included) who had chances to play at small D1 schools but decided to go play at CNU. The reason I chose it was because I've never been who sat the bench well, so I decided to go to CNU to play right away and to play collegiate baseball with brother. I would take playing more and winning a lot of games at a top notch D2 or D3 school over a lower level D1 school any day, but then again that's just my opinion.

USASfan - I agree, CNU has some losses, but I believe they will still get a berth based on their baseball pedigree (which would be your statment 'baseball is too political'). Methodist is obviously in, whoever wins the ODAC is in, and Salisbury is a lock to be in, but after that the field is wide open. Arguments could be made for CNU, Shenandoah, Bridgewater, B-SC, Huntingdon, etc. CNU is ranked higher than all of those others schools (in the national ranking) and with the CNU name carrying a bit of weight from past season success, I see them getting in. I don't see the #17 team in the nation not getting in.