D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll

Started by jknezek, September 30, 2021, 08:44:38 AM

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Gregory Sager

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 01:44:34 PM
Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM
Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Wash U was the top seed in the pod played at NPU's Hedstrand Field. NPU was the #2 seed. The Bears were displaced from hosting because this year was the women's turn to host the first weekend, and the Wash U women's team qualified to host.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

PaulNewman

Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 09, 2021, 02:45:56 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 01:44:34 PM
Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM
Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Wash U was the top seed in the pod played at NPU's Hedstrand Field. NPU was the #2 seed. The Bears were displaced from hosting because this year was the women's turn to host the first weekend, and the Wash U women's team qualified to host.

Right, understood...but do you know if Wash U was the #1 or #2 seed for the entire quadrant.  Like I think D4 or someone suggested that Tufts was the #1 seed in the whole tournament.  Does anyone have access to the seedings at that level?

PaulNewman

Per usual Christan did a far better describing what I wanted to describe than I could.

Reading through that quickly I guess our one quibble is like my Otterbein/Chicago example.  So I want to make sure about the possible divergence there.

Hypothetically, which may roughly correlate with what I did....

Let's say I had Chicago at #10 and Otterbein at #15 (and btw, Otterbein imo WAS one the the toughest teams for anyone to figure out where to place).  Chicago loses and Otterbein has a clean week.  Let's say I move Chicago down to #12 and Otterbein up to #14.  Then the next week Chicago goes 0-1-1 and Otterbein has another clean week.  Are you saying you can't see Otterbein moving ahead even if you think H2H Chicago likely would win (or does it matter if you think would win 60-40 vs 90/10).

A little pushback here on the H2H thing.  Are you (and others) suggesting that you could do that up and down the line?  I'm not sure that follows.  Because rankings aren't just H2H...they involve a ranking wrt to the whole group.  How would you employ that strategy up and down the line especially when there are contradictions, either based on real results like vs common opponents or projections by myself (like I'm  pretty sure Conn Coll would beat Wash U who is at #8 but also pretty sure Conn would lose to NP at #16). 

Gregory Sager

Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 03:03:33 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 09, 2021, 02:45:56 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on December 09, 2021, 01:44:34 PM
Quote from: WUPHF on December 09, 2021, 01:36:05 PM
Quote from: jknezek on December 08, 2021, 03:59:35 PM
Wash U at 3 was the highest ranking team to go out in the second round, followed by Kenyon at 6, Ohio Wes at 8, Otterbein at 12, Emory at 16, and NYU at T18. Of these teams, Kenyon, Otterbein, and NYU lost to higher ranking teams, Kenyon to Messiah, Otterbein to Chicago, and NYU to Conn College. Hard to consider that underachieving.

Wash U lost to T18 North Park and Ohio Wes lost to 14 Calvin, neither of which I'd consider massive upsets but to be ranked so high and go out in Rd2 is difficult. Emory lost to Hanover, an unranked team that wasn't really on the Top 20 radar. That is a bit tougher to swallow than the other 2.

Washington University was an underachiever relative to the rankings, but I don't think they were the best team in the UAA and therefore should have never been ranked so high.

Aside from our little poll as well as the real ones, the more important factor is how teams get rated by the cmtes and for seedings.  I feel like some have suggested that info is accessible and would be very interesting to see.  Kenyon clearly didn't get seeded close to their rankings, and my guess is that Wash U was a high seed (and I believe was considered the home team vs NP).  I know seedings and placements are influenced by geography and cost considerations but it seems that certainly at the top end there are at least pretty clear #1 and #2 seeds per quads and maybe up to #3 and #4 per quads.

Wash U was the top seed in the pod played at NPU's Hedstrand Field. NPU was the #2 seed. The Bears were displaced from hosting because this year was the women's turn to host the first weekend, and the Wash U women's team qualified to host.

Right, understood...but do you know if Wash U was the #1 or #2 seed for the entire quadrant.  Like I think D4 or someone suggested that Tufts was the #1 seed in the whole tournament.  Does anyone have access to the seedings at that level?

Based upon the way that the bracket was set up and the way that it was presented as a graphic, my impression was that the four sectional #1 seeds were Tufts, W&L, Wash U, and Amherst.

I don't know if the committee further seeds the sectional #1s amongst themselves or not.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

Hopkins92

Was just coming on to say the same GS.

(Not for nothing, but Hopkins was bounced in Rd2 by JCU... In a snow storm!)

PaulNewman

I'm only pushing this because a) I got nothing better to do right now lol...sad I know; b) because it's fun sort of like a puzzle; c) really want to understand the reasoning to others and to what extent I agree or don't...

The concept if "deserves" is an interesting one.  That could mean so many different things.  Deserves based on results (wins and losses), based on SOS, based on the test of who one thinks wins in H2Hs, and probably some other measures.

And just on the H2H argument, is there a suggestion that, from your pov, you couldn't or wouldn't ever have a Chicago at #16 after multiple losses (like already had a couple of Ls and got two more that week) if on the H2H test you think Chicago would defeat 6-8 teams ranked above it?  Lke you can't see a scenario where you wouldn't have Chicago above them?  And I ask that before even getting into the H2H dilemma of considering 3 or 5 or more teams where the answers to the H2H test yield very mixed results...like you think Team R would beat Teams S and T but lose to Teams Y and Z and Teams Y and Z would lose or split with Teams S and T.  And yes, I'm algebraic-challenged.

Put another way, Tufts could have started the season with a loss to Babson or Skidmore and a loss at Bowdoin, and I could still believe Tufts was the better team and would beat all the other teams in the top 5.  Where do I then put Tufts?

jknezek

Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

jknezek

While we are still a little over 2 weeks out, I have not gotten a very big response from people willing to participate this year. I think I had only 2 responses so far. If you are interested in participating, we will need at least 5 to make this worth doing. You can message me privately or just respond to this thread. See details below.



Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

SimpleCoach

Quote from: jknezek on August 29, 2022, 12:42:48 PM
While we are still a little over 2 weeks out, I have not gotten a very big response from people willing to participate this year. I think I had only 2 responses so far. If you are interested in participating, we will need at least 5 to make this worth doing. You can message me privately or just respond to this thread. See details below.



Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

Not sure how I will find the time, but I am in.

SC.

jknezek

Quote from: SimpleCoach on August 29, 2022, 03:55:30 PM
Quote from: jknezek on August 29, 2022, 12:42:48 PM
While we are still a little over 2 weeks out, I have not gotten a very big response from people willing to participate this year. I think I had only 2 responses so far. If you are interested in participating, we will need at least 5 to make this worth doing. You can message me privately or just respond to this thread. See details below.



Guess it's time to revive this thread for the new season. If you are interested in participating, I will run the poll again if we get enough pollsters. My only caveat is that if you agree to participate you try your best to do it every week so that things are consistent. Also, you try to be on time because it's no fun for anyone if I have to track you down every week and pester you to get your votes in.

I'll probably run it the same as last year with the same deadlines, so the poll will include games that start before Sunday at midnight EST and will be due to me before Tuesday EST at midnight and I will try to post on Wednesday.

I will not do a preseason poll. I hate them. They set up a ton of positional bias and, especially with 400+ teams in D3, there simply is no way to do a good one. The first poll will be based on games played prior to 9/11 and will be due to me on 9/13. That gives us roughly 2 weeks of games to start making judgements.

If you are interested, and I realize we are more than a month out and I will bring this up again in a few other threads as we get closer, please send me a PM. I hope we get our pollsters back from last year, as they did an excellent job, but if you want to join in, I'm always open to more!

Not sure how I will find the time, but I am in.

SC.

Thanks SC. I'll let you know if we get enough people to make it work.

jknezek

Well guys, we only had 3 people interested this year. So unless anyone else wants to step forward, I think we will skip it. 3 people just isn't enough viewpoints and if one misses a week, it's kind of useless. I think my minimum is 5, but I'd feel better around 6.

jknezek

Excited to announce that we have 6 volunteers to once again participate in this poll! Hope to get the first ballot for next week, but I want to thank SimpleCoach, Ejay, Gregory Sager, Mid-Atlantic Fan, PaulNewman and College Soccer Observer for volunteering their time, research and opinions again this year.

Saint of Old

Quote from: jknezek on September 12, 2022, 12:08:04 PM
Excited to announce that we have 6 volunteers to once again participate in this poll! Hope to get the first ballot for next week, but I want to thank SimpleCoach, Ejay, Gregory Sager, Mid-Atlantic Fan, PaulNewman and College Soccer Observer for volunteering their time, research and opinions again this year.

Some big names in Fandom right there.
Well done boys.
Please give these men some positive Karma!

SimpleCoach

Kind of jumped the gun a little bit.  This one was put together on a whim, so not my best work.  @PaulNewman ... gave a shout out to MSOE....

Around D3

jknezek

And the fan poll returns! I want to really thank the voters. This poll takes a lot of work, and with the effort to be part of the D3soccer poll, that work has to be done in a really short period of time.

Some details about the poll this week, the change column is from the last poll we did last year. It's pretty much useless EXCEPT it's interesting to see how few carry overs there are right now. We only did a Top 20 last year, this is a Top 25, but to have fewer than 1/2 of the pre-playoff Top 20 make it to our Top 25 a few weeks into this season is interesting.

The first team to not get all 6 voters is Carnegie Mellon on a tie at 11 with 5 of 6 voters putting them on the ballot. Clarkson at 16 is the last team to be ranked on all 6 ballots. 39 teams earned a spot on at least one ballot. Drew, with a single vote in the 11 spot, has the highest vote not to make the Top 25.

Anyway, I hope you guys enjoy the poll this year and give some shout outs to our voters. If you've never tried to do something like this, you can't imagine how difficult it can be to do well. And I'm very pleased with our voters, all carryovers from last year except me, who do a lot of work to make this a credible and knowledgeable effort.


D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 9/18/2022
National Top 25




























Rank
School
Points
Weekly Change
Voter Breakdown
1
Messiah (3)
145
0
1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 2
2
Chicago (2)
144
9
2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 1
3
North Park
138
15
5, 3, 2, 3, 2, 3
4
Kenyon (1)
131
2
7, 1, 5, 4, 4, 4
5
Wesleyan
119
---
3, 5, 10, 5, 8, 6
6
Johns Hopkins
115
---
8, 6, 4, 12, 6, 5
7
Stevens
107
---
13, 8, 7, 7, 7, 7
8
Calvin
103
6
9, 7, 8, 11, 5, 13
9
Bowdoin
85
---
10, 9, 22, 8, 14, 8
10
Washington and Lee
73
-6
14, 22, 14, 10, 12, 11
T11
Carnegie Mellon
68
---
21, 10, 9, 6, 16
T11
Connecticut College
68
-4
4, 17, 20, 11, 10
T11
Tufts
68
-9
6, 18, 19, 10, 9
14
Amherst
66
-5
11, 24, 21, 9, 13, 12
15
Gettysburg
63
---
15, 16, 6, 15, 15
16
Clarkson
50
---
16, 13, 16, 23, 24, 14
17
Oneonta State
42
---
17, 17, 23, 22, 9
18
Pacific Lutheran
35
---
11, 17, 15
19
Luther
34
---
22, 20, 20, 17, 17
T20
Denison
33
---
12, 13, 20
T20
Hamilton
33
---
12, 15, 18
22
Gustavus Adolphus
29
---
14, 16, 19
23
Babson
24
---
18, 21, 23, 18
24
Loras
22
---
18, 12
25
Rochester
18
---
20, 19, 21

Also Receiving Votes:
St. Thomas (TX) (17) , Christopher Newport (16) , Drew (15) , Middlebury (15) , Cortland State (13) , Franklin and Marshall (12) , Montclair State (12) , Coast Guard (11) , Willamette (10) , North Central (IL) (4) , UW-Eau Claire (4) , Western Connecticut (4) , MSOE (3) , Catholic (1)

Newly Ranked: Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins, Stevens, Bowdoin, Carnegie Mellon, Gettysburg, Clarkson, Oneonta State, Pacific Lutheran, Luther, Denison, Hamilton, Gustavus Adolphus, Babson, Loras, Rochester
Dropped Out: Washington University (Prev:3), Trinity (TX) (Prev:5), Ohio Wesleyan (Prev:8), St. Olaf (Prev:10), Otterbein (Prev:12), Montclair State (Prev:13), Cortland State (Prev:15), Emory (Prev:16), John Carroll (Prev:17), New York University (Prev:18), North Central (IL) (Prev:18)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Gregory Sager, Ejay, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Paul Newman, jknezek