2019 Pool C

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 21, 2019, 03:03:33 PM

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Oline89

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 11:11:54 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2019, 10:02:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 09:54:20 PM
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

As I understand it...

This week's RRs (let's call them RR2) will harvest their vRRO data from last week's RR's (RR1).  So, Union is going to have a 1-0 vRRO on the data sheet this week. 

For the RR's done after Week 11's games (RR3), the vRRO data will come from RR2.  So after next week's games, Union is going to be back to 0-0 vRRO (assuming Ithaca or any other Liberty League team is not on RR2). 

The nat'l committee will do one more final set of rankings before they select and bracket Saturday night, taking into account the RR3 information.  Now, the the thing that I'm not entirely certain on here is if this final ranking essentially mines its vRRO data from RR2 and RR3, or just RR3.  As it has been explained to me, I think the final set that we see has both a look-back (RR2) and current (RR3) composition with the vRRO data- ultimately making RR1 the only set of published rankings that wind up not meaning much at all (aside from their contribution to RR2).

However, Hobart should get ranked this week (RR2), and Union beat Hobart, so shouldn't Union stay at 1-0 next week?

wally_wabash

Quote from: Oline89 on November 11, 2019, 10:18:22 AM
However, Hobart should get ranked this week (RR2), and Union beat Hobart, so shouldn't Union stay at 1-0 next week?

This seems likely- again, I wasn't trying to project rankings going forward, only using Ithaca as an example to help explain how the vRRO data can move around and the timing around when teams are counted as ranked and when they aren't. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

hazzben

What year had the most Pool C chaos break out on the last Saturday? Aka, the most results that upset the apple cart and suddenly had teams out who we assumed were in, and teams in play who had been left for dead.

Baldini

#318
I know this is a pointless exercise, but what else am I going to do well eating my lunch on this cold and damp day.

1.) Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime, Hope vs. CWR
2.) Wesley vs. Susquehanna, Bridgewater vs. Berry

1.) Muhlenberg vs. MIT, Delaware Valley vs. Brockport
2.) Salisbury vs. Framingham St., Union vs. Western New England

1.) Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Huntingdon, North Central vs. Hanover
2.) Chapman vs. Linfield, Redlands vs. Central

1.) UW-Whitewater vs. Monmouth/St. Norbert, Bethel/John Carroll/Wartburg vs. Aurora
2.) Wheaton vs. Wabash, St. John's vs Martin Luther College

USee

#319
Quote from: USee on November 06, 2019, 07:01:05 PM
Pat/Wally/Keith/whomever,

At one point in the past I remember seeing that the National Committee picks 4 top seeds and then builds geographic brackets. In the Q&A it says they pick the top 8 teams and build geographic brackets. Which is it? both?

I will admit a lack of understanding and history around the 1 seed discussions, primarily because my team has not been in this position very often to pay as close attention.

That said. It seems the 1 seed locks, based on today's snapshot (sure to change, even dramatically) are UMHB (defending champ), UMU (national finalist) and UWW (undefeated with playoff history). The 4th 1 seed is up for debate. Among the undefeated contenders we have (ranked in order of CURRENT SOS):

1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Chapman (7-0),  .536, 1-0 RRO (West #3)
5: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 1-0 RRO (East #1)
6: Bridgewater (8-0),  .502 0-0 (RRO South #3)

Obviously we can cross off Bridgewater and Chapman, who are behind others on this list and wouldn't be considered.

That leaves:
1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 2-0 RRO (East #1)

Based on criteria, Wheaton is the next best team with only Salisbury matching their RRO but not close on SOS. Both teams will decline in SOS over the last 2 weeks so that spread seems unlikely to close and this seems a similar picture between the two. Muhlenberg has only 1 RRO band their SOS will decline a similar amount to Wheaton's. Muhlenberg does have a playoff result from last year (L @UMU).

Many are assuming Muhlenberg or Salisbury are the more likely pick as a 4th 1 seed. I am not seeing it in the critereria, unless Muhlenberg's playoff result trumps everything else. Salisbury also may lose an RRO when UWO plays UWW in week 11. Wartburg may end up with the strongest SOS of this group but may have no all important RRO if they beat Central, knocking them from rankings (small chance Monmouth appears but I doubt it). If this choice is criteria based, what am I missing?

Updated numbers for a 1 seed through Saturday:


1: Wheaton (9-0), .583 (15th) 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565  0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .516 (92nd) 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Salisbury (7-0),  .501(127th) 2-0 RRO (East #1)

All three of these teams will see SOS drops after this week. Wheaton's will end up around .540 (@Elmhurst this week), Muhlenberg just above .500 somewhere (playing 4-5 Moravian) and Salisbury will drop well below .500 (playing 2-7 TCNJ)

The RRO situation will also change. Wheaton will be either 1-0 or 2-0 (if Monmout sneaks in), Muhlenberg is pretty set at 1-0 RRO and Salisbury will be either 2-0 (in which case UWW lost to UWO and yet another 1 seed is open) or 1-0. In any case I don't see how, based on the criteria, there is another choice besides Wheaton as a 1 seed. Doesn't mean it will happen.

If that happens via a UWW loss then grouping Wheaton and UWW together will likely happen and putting UMU with Muhlenberg or Bridgewater in a bracket also seems to make sense. If UWW and Wheaton both win, I am not sue what happens as there is no obvious geographic pairing of 8 top seeds if the 4 1 seeds are UMHB, UMU, UWW and Wheaton and it would require extra flights to group them appropriately. Makes me think the committee will make a way for Muhlenberg or Salisbury to be a 1 seed so they can group Wheaton with either UWW or UMU. But it won't be based on the criteria.


desertcat1

Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 11:58:48 AM
I know this is a pointless exercise, but what else am I going to do well eating my lunch on this cold and damp day.

1.) Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime, Hope vs. CWR
2.) Wesley vs. Susquehanna, Bridgewater vs. Berry

1.) Muhlenberg vs. MIT, Delaware Valley vs. Brockport
2.) Salisbury vs. Framingham St., Union vs. Western New England

1.) Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Huntingdon, North Central vs. Hanover
2.) Chapman vs. Linfield, Redlands vs. Central

1.) UW-Whitewater vs. Monmouth/St. Norbert, Bethel/John Carroll/Wartburg vs. Aurora
2.) Wheaton vs. Wabash, St. John's vs Martin Luther College




I like it..   :D

Yes , sciac #1 then either another shot at the sciac#2 dogs , or mud bowl two.   :P

Sign the cats up.   :-*
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 11:58:48 AM
I know this is a pointless exercise, but what else am I going to do well eating my lunch on this cold and damp day.

1.) Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime, Hope vs. CWR
2.) Wesley vs. Susquehanna, Bridgewater vs. Berry

1.) Muhlenberg vs. MIT, Delaware Valley vs. Brockport
2.) Salisbury vs. Framingham St., Union vs. Western New England

1.) Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Huntingdon, North Central vs. Hanover
2.) Chapman vs. Linfield, Redlands vs. Central

1.) UW-Whitewater vs. Monmouth/St. Norbert, Bethel/John Carroll/Wartburg vs. Aurora
2.) Wheaton vs. Wabash, St. John's vs Martin Luther College
Don't see the committee springing for 4 flights in the 1st round when they can easily have 2... 3 would be a stretch but maybe if we're lucky. Redlands @ UMHB, Linfield @ Chapman, Huntingdon @ Berry are virtual locks for 1st round matchups. It's something we all hate but that's how it is. In past years you might have seen them do Redlands @ Chapman and Linfield @ UMHB to cut it down to 1 flight.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

Baldini

#322
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2019, 03:51:09 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 11:58:48 AM
I know this is a pointless exercise, but what else am I going to do well eating my lunch on this cold and damp day.

1.) Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime, Hope vs. CWR
2.) Wesley vs. Susquehanna, Bridgewater vs. Berry

1.) Muhlenberg vs. MIT, Delaware Valley vs. Brockport
2.) Salisbury vs. Framingham St., Union vs. Western New England

1.) Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Huntingdon, North Central vs. Hanover
2.) Chapman vs. Linfield, Redlands vs. Central

1.) UW-Whitewater vs. Monmouth/St. Norbert, Bethel/John Carroll/Wartburg vs. Aurora
2.) Wheaton vs. Wabash, St. John's vs Martin Luther College
Don't see the committee springing for 4 flights in the 1st round when they can easily have 2... 3 would be a stretch but maybe if we're lucky. Redlands @ UMHB, Linfield @ Chapman, Huntingdon @ Berry are virtual locks for 1st round matchups. It's something we all hate but that's how it is. In past years you might have seen them do Redlands @ Chapman and Linfield @ UMHB to cut it down to 1 flight.

My bad, I had it in my head that Berry to Bridgewater was not a flight. Checked it again and it is 522 miles. Back to square one, but I'm not buying into Redlands to UMHB or the Berry - Huntington matchup until I actually see it.

Going door-to-door Berry to Bridgewater is 513 miles.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 04:06:02 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2019, 03:51:09 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 11:58:48 AM
I know this is a pointless exercise, but what else am I going to do well eating my lunch on this cold and damp day.

1.) Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime, Hope vs. CWR
2.) Wesley vs. Susquehanna, Bridgewater vs. Berry

1.) Muhlenberg vs. MIT, Delaware Valley vs. Brockport
2.) Salisbury vs. Framingham St., Union vs. Western New England

1.) Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Huntingdon, North Central vs. Hanover
2.) Chapman vs. Linfield, Redlands vs. Central

1.) UW-Whitewater vs. Monmouth/St. Norbert, Bethel/John Carroll/Wartburg vs. Aurora
2.) Wheaton vs. Wabash, St. John's vs Martin Luther College
Don't see the committee springing for 4 flights in the 1st round when they can easily have 2... 3 would be a stretch but maybe if we're lucky. Redlands @ UMHB, Linfield @ Chapman, Huntingdon @ Berry are virtual locks for 1st round matchups. It's something we all hate but that's how it is. In past years you might have seen them do Redlands @ Chapman and Linfield @ UMHB to cut it down to 1 flight.

My bad, I had it in my head that Berry to Bridgewater was not a flight. Checked it again and it is 522 miles. Back to square one, but I'm not buying into Redlands to UMHB or the Berry - Huntington matchup until I actually see it.

Going door-to-door Berry to Bridgewater is 513 miles.
I can't count the number of times I've checked a distance and it ended up just a bit over 500 miles. Always frustrating.

As far as seeing it, here's the last 3 years...
2018 7-3 CMS @ 9-0 Whitworth, 9-1 Hardin-Simmons @ 10-0 UMHB, 7-2 Maryville @ 9-1 Berry
2017: 6-2 Chapman @ 10-0 UMHB, 9-1 Hardin-Simmons @ 9-1 Linfield, 9-1 Huntingdon @ 10-0 Berry
2016: 8-1 Redlands @ 10-0 UMHB, 8-1 Linfield @ 8-1 Hardin-Simmons, 9-1 Huntingdon @ 9-1 Wheaton (WashU won the SAA so no school was within 500 miles of Huntingdon)
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

Ron Boerger

It would be interesting to see the impact if the AA said 600 rather than 500 miles determined plane vs. bus trip.  Yeah, a 600-mile bus trip would be a pain, but how often do you get direct flights between teams 500-600 miles?

USee

The "new" policy may give the committee a little more flexibility in adding some interesting matchups with regards to flights. We'll see if anything has changed, but we do know that Redlands@Chapman is off the table.

smedindy

It might be rougher to fly. Some of these colleges aren't close to airports anyway, or you'd have hellish traffic once you arrive.

Baldini

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2019, 04:29:57 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 04:06:02 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2019, 03:51:09 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 12, 2019, 11:58:48 AM
I know this is a pointless exercise, but what else am I going to do well eating my lunch on this cold and damp day.

1.) Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime, Hope vs. CWR
2.) Wesley vs. Susquehanna, Bridgewater vs. Berry

1.) Muhlenberg vs. MIT, Delaware Valley vs. Brockport
2.) Salisbury vs. Framingham St., Union vs. Western New England

1.) Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Huntingdon, North Central vs. Hanover
2.) Chapman vs. Linfield, Redlands vs. Central

1.) UW-Whitewater vs. Monmouth/St. Norbert, Bethel/John Carroll/Wartburg vs. Aurora
2.) Wheaton vs. Wabash, St. John's vs Martin Luther College
Don't see the committee springing for 4 flights in the 1st round when they can easily have 2... 3 would be a stretch but maybe if we're lucky. Redlands @ UMHB, Linfield @ Chapman, Huntingdon @ Berry are virtual locks for 1st round matchups. It's something we all hate but that's how it is. In past years you might have seen them do Redlands @ Chapman and Linfield @ UMHB to cut it down to 1 flight.

My bad, I had it in my head that Berry to Bridgewater was not a flight. Checked it again and it is 522 miles. Back to square one, but I'm not buying into Redlands to UMHB or the Berry - Huntington matchup until I actually see it.

Going door-to-door Berry to Bridgewater is 513 miles.
I can't count the number of times I've checked a distance and it ended up just a bit over 500 miles. Always frustrating.

As far as seeing it, here's the last 3 years...
2018 7-3 CMS @ 9-0 Whitworth, 9-1 Hardin-Simmons @ 10-0 UMHB, 7-2 Maryville @ 9-1 Berry
2017: 6-2 Chapman @ 10-0 UMHB, 9-1 Hardin-Simmons @ 9-1 Linfield, 9-1 Huntingdon @ 10-0 Berry
2016: 8-1 Redlands @ 10-0 UMHB, 8-1 Linfield @ 8-1 Hardin-Simmons, 9-1 Huntingdon @ 9-1 Wheaton (WashU won the SAA so no school was within 500 miles of Huntingdon)

No I got the history of it Grizz, but I think the lip service that has come down the pike is real and the extreme injustices of the past will be avoided if possible this year and going forward. I guess we will know soon if real change is coming.   

WW

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 12, 2019, 04:32:05 PM
It would be interesting to see the impact if the AA said 600 rather than 500 miles determined plane vs. bus trip.  Yeah, a 600-mile bus trip would be a pain, but how often do you get direct flights between teams 500-600 miles?

Yeah, those should be studied case-by-case, not an absolute of 500 miles. Consider where many D3s are located. You're talking a bus ride to an airport, a connecting flight, a layover, another connecting flight, and board another bus to your destination. Add that up and it could be 10 hours. I think I'd rather spend the 10 hours on a single bus that takes me door-to-door.

Charters are certainly an attractive option, but I'm not sure where the cost would measure vs putting 70-75 guys on commercial flights.

Baldini

Just checking UMAC conference games this season and their is a total of 15 games with over a 500 mile bus trip. The longest being Minnesota-Morris making the 760 mile trek to Greenville this coming weekend.