FB: American Southwest Conference

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SaintsFAN

Quote from: CruGuy on December 18, 2018, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: SaintsFAN on December 18, 2018, 11:01:07 AM

Right... but that happened.  I get it.  That sucks.  You feel for the kid.  I suffered an injury that cost me half a season too.. I get it. 

But you can't say 2018 HSU was on the same level with Mount Union/WW/St. Johns with a caveat about an injury

I just went to do a stat sanity-check on my opinion. I left off St John, because in my original post I had them a tier above. Here is Yards Gained, Yards Gained Per Play, Yards Allowed, and Yards allowed per play against UMHB. I used the HSU playoff game from two months after the injury so they have no excuse for losing the best RB and maybe best offensive player in D-III.

     YG     YGPP     YA     YAPP

   303     (4.1)      303    (5.0)
   315     (4.3)      237    (5.0)
   261     (4.7)      312    (4.9)


Please tell me which of these three teams doesn't belong and is significantly worse than the other two.

Right but you can make stats fit any argument you want to make.  With my two eyes, I'm telling you what I saw.  They had two chances to play against the best in the division. 

I don't feel like UMHB was ever in any real danger of losing to HSU. 

UMHB is head and shoulders above the rest of the ASC.  The three consecutive wins to end the season were against really LEGIT championship programs.
AMC Champs: 1991-1992-1993-1994-1995
HCAC Champs: 2000, 2001
PAC Champs:  2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Bridge Bowl Champs:  1990-1991-1992-1993-1994-1995-2002-2003-2006-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 (SERIES OVER)
Undefeated: 1991, 1995, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2015
Instances where MSJ quit the Bridge Bowl:  2

jamtod

Quote from: CruGuy on December 18, 2018, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: SaintsFAN on December 18, 2018, 11:01:07 AM

Right... but that happened.  I get it.  That sucks.  You feel for the kid.  I suffered an injury that cost me half a season too.. I get it. 

But you can't say 2018 HSU was on the same level with Mount Union/WW/St. Johns with a caveat about an injury

I just went to do a stat sanity-check on my opinion. I left off St John, because in my original post I had them a tier above. Here is Yards Gained, Yards Gained Per Play, Yards Allowed, and Yards allowed per play against UMHB. I used the HSU playoff game from two months after the injury so they have no excuse for losing the best RB and maybe best offensive player in D-III.

     YG     YGPP     YA     YAPP

   303     (4.1)      303    (5.0)
   315     (4.3)      237    (5.0)
   261     (4.7)      312    (4.9)


Please tell me which of these three teams doesn't belong and is significantly worse than the other two.

I'll let somebody else do a more full analysis, but 2 things stuck out to me in looking at the boxscore of the HSU game.
1. UMHB had an early lead which they tend to conservatively sit on and try to work the clock.
2. The 4 interceptions leading to short fields (and 108 yards of INT returns including 88 for a TD) certainly impact the overall numbers as well. UMHB doesn't need as many yards and 1st downs when a TO leads to a short field.

HSUCowboy2015

Quote from: jamtoTommie on December 18, 2018, 03:22:48 PM
Quote from: CruGuy on December 18, 2018, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: SaintsFAN on December 18, 2018, 11:01:07 AM

Right... but that happened.  I get it.  That sucks.  You feel for the kid.  I suffered an injury that cost me half a season too.. I get it. 

But you can't say 2018 HSU was on the same level with Mount Union/WW/St. Johns with a caveat about an injury

I just went to do a stat sanity-check on my opinion. I left off St John, because in my original post I had them a tier above. Here is Yards Gained, Yards Gained Per Play, Yards Allowed, and Yards allowed per play against UMHB. I used the HSU playoff game from two months after the injury so they have no excuse for losing the best RB and maybe best offensive player in D-III.

     YG     YGPP     YA     YAPP

   303     (4.1)      303    (5.0)
   315     (4.3)      237    (5.0)
   261     (4.7)      312    (4.9)


Please tell me which of these three teams doesn't belong and is significantly worse than the other two.

I'll let somebody else do a more full analysis, but 2 things stuck out to me in looking at the boxscore of the HSU game.
1. UMHB had an early lead which they tend to conservatively sit on and try to work the clock.
2. The 4 interceptions leading to short fields (and 108 yards of INT returns including 88 for a TD) certainly impact the overall numbers as well. UMHB doesn't need as many yards and 1st downs when a TO leads to a short field.

Two interceptions on our first two drives killed us. Although I agree they get conservative, they only got 7 first downs for the entire game. They did a masterful job pinning us deep and making us march the entire length of the field, which is extremely difficult to string that many first downs in a row versus that defense. Don't confuse our defense shutting them down with their conservativeness. In every aspect of that game we matched them, except for the Turnover battle.
Stay Purple

jamtod

Quote from: HSUAlum255 on December 18, 2018, 04:23:32 PM

Two interceptions on our first two drives killed us. Although I agree they get conservative, they only got 7 first downs for the entire game. They did a masterful job pinning us deep and making us march the entire length of the field, which is extremely difficult to string that many first downs in a row versus that defense. Don't confuse our defense shutting them down with their conservativeness. In every aspect of that game we matched them, except for the Turnover battle.

This seems to parallel this year's UST vs SJU game quite nicely. We (UST) lost by 20 but we out-gained them 609 to 539, including over 200 more rushing yards than they had. Looking at those elements of the box score, I might think we controlled the game (or at least matched them) aside from the 5 interceptions we had (compared to their 2, sound familiar?)

But I saw that game and they dominated us. We actually had a chance to get back in it before a fumble recovery was returned 99 yards. And yet they absolutely owned us in that game and anybody watching knew it, despite what the boxscore said.

I don't know enough to suggest that this fits the UMHB-HSU narrative perfectly, but it seemed to align.

HScoach

This kind of debate is always a heated one.  It's also one based on purely subjective and often biased conjecture. 

Extrapolating the performance of a single game beyond those 2 teams is dangerous.  There are styles of play, coaching philosophy and personnel match-ups that all factor into how teams measure against each other.  Just because Team A vs. Team B and then A vs. Team C play equally competitive games does NOT mean Teams B and C would be competitive against each other.  Team B could might be much less talented overall than Team A but plays a style that matches up well them.   That doesn't equate to being competitive with Team C. 

This is especially true then the teams become more one dimensional on offense or is drastically unbalanced between the comparative strength of the offense vs defense.   Doesn't matter whether it's heavily run or pass, or offense versus defense, the more unbalanced a team becomes the more likely that an overall lesser team can hang with them on a random Saturday.   More so when it leans heavy on the pass or towards the offense as a whole.  A dominant defense and running game is usually much more consistent than a dominant offense or passing game.  Unless that is until said dominant running game runs into a big, strong defensive line.  That defensive team might be overall quite average but is a horrible match-up for the dominant running team.  There are too many variables to equate HSU's performance against MHB as proof that they're great.   

Also, conference play breeds familiarity that tends to even the playing field too. 

Final statement:  check out my signature about stats
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

GillCJ1

#21470
I just wanted to plug and give a shout-out to Frank Rossi for his interview with former Cru LB Tevin Jones.  If you haven't watched this yet, please do.  Happy for this young man taking accountability for his actions and getting the help he needs.  Good luck to you in the future, Tevin!

Thanks also to Adam, Greg, and Coach Fred for their takes on it, too.

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2018/12/tevin-jones-comeback
ASC Football Champs 2002-03, 2005-2018 | D-III National Champions 2016, 2018

2016 National Confidence Playoff Pick 'Em Champion
2017 ASC Pick 'Em Co-Champion

Frank Rossi

Quote from: GillCJ1 on December 19, 2018, 11:25:54 AM
I just wanted to plug and give a shout-out to Frank Rossi for his interview with former Cru LB Tevin Smith.  If you haven't watched this yet, please do.  Happy for this young man taking accountability for his actions and getting the help he needs.  Good luck to you in the future, Tevin!

Thanks also to Adam, Greg, and Coach Fred for their takes on it, too.

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2018/12/tevin-jones-comeback

Thanks, CJ.  I've said it elsewhere, but I'll say it again here — my social media interactions with him, especially in August, made me weary about the maturity level I'd encounter if and when we met.  When we actually met, I was blown away by how mature and accountable he was — and I could sense it was sincerity and not a show by him.  Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat can end up being the worst enemies of student-athletes based on how unfiltered statements made on them can come across.  I think Tevin fell victim to that fact, but he's worked to rebuild himself, his relationships, his self-image, and now his public image, as he realizes he made some huge mistakes across the board. 

The most important thing I wanted to happen in that interview was allowing Tevin to tell his story, not me.  And he did so without reservation.  The only real edit point was me taking a break about 10 minutes into the discussion — it was that natural and free-flowing, and that's a credit to him.

We'll see where things go for him.  But this was a huge first public step, in my opinion.  I hope others share in my perception.

Retired Old Rat

Excellent job with the interview Frank.
   
National Champions: 1963, 1965, 1976, 2003

crufootball

Very intrigued at how the Tevin situation plays out, I am glad he has apparently got back on track and if nothing else I hope he gets to finish his education.

In other news, I know there was some rumbling about our game with Albright and if it was still on track. Appears they are raising money for it which I assume means it is still a go.

https://albrightathletics.com/news/2018/12/18/albright-football-announces-send-a-lion-to-texas-fundraiser.aspx

bleedpurple

Quote from: crufootball on December 19, 2018, 06:27:50 PM
Very intrigued at how the Tevin situation plays out, I am glad he has apparently got back on track and if nothing else I hope he gets to finish his education.

In other news, I know there was some rumbling about our game with Albright and if it was still on track. Appears they are raising money for it which I assume means it is still a go.

https://albrightathletics.com/news/2018/12/18/albright-football-announces-send-a-lion-to-texas-fundraiser.aspx

Why doesn't the CRU just pay them to come and play. That's what we have to do to get a game.


crufootball

Quote from: bleedpurple on December 19, 2018, 09:49:07 PM
Quote from: crufootball on December 19, 2018, 06:27:50 PM
Very intrigued at how the Tevin situation plays out, I am glad he has apparently got back on track and if nothing else I hope he gets to finish his education.

In other news, I know there was some rumbling about our game with Albright and if it was still on track. Appears they are raising money for it which I assume means it is still a go.

https://albrightathletics.com/news/2018/12/18/albright-football-announces-send-a-lion-to-texas-fundraiser.aspx

Why doesn't the CRU just pay them to come and play. That's what we have to do to get a game.

Who knows maybe one of the donors to the fundraiser will be Pete Fredenberg or Randy O'Rear? Are you guys going to Georgia this year?

bleedpurple

Quote from: crufootball on December 19, 2018, 10:08:46 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on December 19, 2018, 09:49:07 PM
Quote from: crufootball on December 19, 2018, 06:27:50 PM
Very intrigued at how the Tevin situation plays out, I am glad he has apparently got back on track and if nothing else I hope he gets to finish his education.

In other news, I know there was some rumbling about our game with Albright and if it was still on track. Appears they are raising money for it which I assume means it is still a go.

https://albrightathletics.com/news/2018/12/18/albright-football-announces-send-a-lion-to-texas-fundraiser.aspx

Why doesn't the CRU just pay them to come and play. That's what we have to do to get a game.

Who knows maybe one of the donors to the fundraiser will be Pete Fredenberg or Randy O'Rear? Are you guys going to Georgia this year?

Not if we can get three D-III schools to play us without demanding an arm and a leg.

DFWCrufan

Quote from: Frank Rossi on December 19, 2018, 11:52:06 AM
Quote from: GillCJ1 on December 19, 2018, 11:25:54 AM
I just wanted to plug and give a shout-out to Frank Rossi for his interview with former Cru LB Tevin Smith.  If you haven't watched this yet, please do.  Happy for this young man taking accountability for his actions and getting the help he needs.  Good luck to you in the future, Tevin!

Thanks also to Adam, Greg, and Coach Fred for their takes on it, too.

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2018/12/tevin-jones-comeback

Thanks, CJ.  I've said it elsewhere, but I'll say it again here — my social media interactions with him, especially in August, made me weary about the maturity level I'd encounter if and when we met.  When we actually met, I was blown away by how mature and accountable he was — and I could sense it was sincerity and not a show by him.  Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat can end up being the worst enemies of student-athletes based on how unfiltered statements made on them can come across.  I think Tevin fell victim to that fact, but he's worked to rebuild himself, his relationships, his self-image, and now his public image, as he realizes he made some huge mistakes across the board. 

The most important thing I wanted to happen in that interview was allowing Tevin to tell his story, not me.  And he did so without reservation.  The only real edit point was me taking a break about 10 minutes into the discussion — it was that natural and free-flowing, and that's a credit to him.

We'll see where things go for him.  But this was a huge first public step, in my opinion.  I hope others share in my perception.

Frank, again great interview and thank you for that, good to see TJ is on the mend.
9 Year Member of the CRU-Nation! UMHB National Champions 2016 and 2018

MUC57


Merry Christmas to all my friends from UMHB and all on this board. Enjoy your well deserved National Championship and this glorious season of Christmas.    ;D
I'm old! I get mixed up and I forget things! Go Everybody! 🏈 ☠

Toby Taff

#21479
MeRRY CHRISTMAS EVERYBODY.
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.