Pool C -- 2013

Started by Ralph Turner, October 18, 2013, 10:39:56 PM

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hazzben

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 04:42:53 PM
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?

I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.

Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
How could the SOS get much better?  The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's

Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460

That is phenomenal.  It also doesn't mean that God's own D-III conference is out there wailing away on D-III elites on the reg.  Among the giants slain by the mighty MIAC:

0-9 UW-River Falls...twice
1-8 UW-Eau Claire...twice
3-6 Buena Vista...twice
3-6 Macalester...twice
2-7 Grinnell
3-7 Minnesota-Morris
something called Jamestown, which appears to be a 3-7 NAIA team

I hear what you're saying Wally, but all those teams listed actually already pull down the SoS numbers for the MIAC. You also left off the better Non-Con games.

And I think the top 3 teams you listed would all have better records playing in the NCAC, just saying  ;)

And I don't fault UST or SJU for playing UWEC. That's a traditional rival for SJU. And UWRF makes a ton of sense from a recruiting standpoint. Kudos to them for scheduling WIAC schools also located in the part of WI they are hoping to recruit heavily. They can't help how bad they ended up this year.

AO

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 04:42:53 PM
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?

I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.

Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
How could the SOS get much better?  The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's

Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460

That is phenomenal.  It also doesn't mean that God's own D-III conference is out there wailing away on D-III elites on the reg.  Among the giants slain by the mighty MIAC:

0-9 UW-River Falls...twice
1-8 UW-Eau Claire...twice
3-6 Buena Vista...twice
3-6 Macalester...twice
2-7 Grinnell
3-7 Minnesota-Morris
something called Jamestown, which appears to be a 3-7 NAIA team
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP.  The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid.  They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.

K-Mack

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 11, 2013, 04:31:51 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 10, 2013, 07:25:22 PM
I imagine the better experts are waiting for the new RRs on Wednesday before prognosticating, but I can't wait. ;)

Locks:
(9-1) loser of UMU/JCU
(9-1) winner of UWP/UWO
(9-1) IWU (assuming no monumental upset at home vs Elmhurst)

Veritable Lock:
(8-1) Pac Lu (end of regular season)

That leaves for spot #5:
9-1 Wabash (assuming they win the Monon Bell)
9-1 Thomas More (assuming they win the Bridge Bowl)
the top 8-2 MIAC team (SJU if they upset Bethel, otherwise UST)
the top 8-2 E8 team (the winner of SJF/Alfred)
[I don't think one-loss Illinois College or Tx Lu has a prayer.  Nor do I think Wheaton, Heidelberg, or the UWP/UWO loser has a chance.]]

Anyone I've inadvertently omitted?

Basically my take as well, under the assumption that the three Pool B teams are Millsaps, Wesley, and Framingham State.  If TLU somehow gets picked over Framingham for the third Pool B bid, then I think Framingham will be atop the East's Pool C board and have a decent chance to get in.  I don't think that really should happen, but who knows exactly what we'll see.  Further out on the fringes is WashU, but that is wayyyy on the fringes (and being ranked behind TMC at the moment in the RR's, I think they're unlikely to ever reach the table for discussion).

Interesting thought and scenario, but what would be the rationale for taking 8-1, 4-something over 9-1, 5-something, with a result vs. an RRO?
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desertcat1

Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 04:42:53 PM
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:19:08 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 11, 2013, 04:06:44 PM
Quote from: smedindy on November 11, 2013, 03:51:35 PM
Keith, you don't think a St. Thomas or St. John's would jump ahead of Illinois College and Chapman in the West rankings?

I haven't given it a ton of thought, but I think it's both possible and a mostly moot point.

Certainly St. John's, on the heels of a win over Bethel, would be hard to keep out, and their SoS will rise from .464. The MIAC SoS numbers aren't as good as you might expect, Bethel aside.
How could the SOS get much better?  The MIAC has one non-conference loss.Concordia-Moorhead .558 Regionally ranked win over St. John's
St. Thomas .537 Regionally ranked win over Concordia
Gustavus .568 Regionally ranked win over St. John's

Illinois College should be out of the West Top Ten with their .460

That is phenomenal.  It also doesn't mean that God's own D-III conference is out there wailing away on D-III elites on the reg.  Among the giants slain by the mighty MIAC:

0-9 UW-River Falls...twice
1-8 UW-Eau Claire...twice
3-6 Buena Vista...twice
3-6 Macalester...twice
2-7 Grinnell
3-7 Minnesota-Morris
something called Jamestown, which appears to be a 3-7 NAIA team
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP.  The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid.  They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.
[/b]


I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
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wally_wabash

Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP.  The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid.  They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.

Wait.  Do we know this?  I don't think we know this. 
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jknezek

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 06:34:21 PM
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP.  The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid.  They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.

Wait.  Do we know this?  I don't think we know this.

Of course we don't know this. If you are a MIAC partisan you BELIEVE it because you have credible reason to believe you play in the hardest conference in the country this year. However, that doesn't make your runner-up better than a different runner-up, although it also doesn't make the assumption wrong. Always fun to state opinions as facts...

hazzben

What fun is it to state opinions as opinions  ;D ;)

SaintsFAN

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 06:34:21 PM
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 04:57:50 PM
You exclude the results of the game you played so Buena Vista is really 3-4, etc. Eau-Claire and River Falls also give the MIAC a boost in OOWP.  The point remains that the MIAC runner up will be better than the rest of the Pool Cs on the board for the final at-large bid.  They will also likely have an advantage in regionally ranked wins and if St. Thomas is the team the tiebreaker allowing them to consider last year's run to the Stagg will settle it.

Wait.  Do we know this?  I don't think we know this.

Yeah, I was definitely confused by that as well.  I would consult Guru but he's in Paris now and probably asleep.
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AO

Quote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PM
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
dang it, I was mistaken.  You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt. 

I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best.   The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I don't think enough to cover the spread between the two.  I've got to think it's likely Concordia would stay in the regional rankings with a win over Gustavus, giving St. Thomas another advantage.

desertcat1

Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 08:29:23 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PM
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
dang it, I was mistaken.  You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt. 

I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best.   The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I












But, Oregon is nice this time of year ? ;)
















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wally_wabash

Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 08:29:23 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PM
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
dang it, I was mistaken.  You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt. 

I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best.   The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I don't think enough to cover the spread between the two.  I've got to think it's likely Concordia would stay in the regional rankings with a win over Gustavus, giving St. Thomas another advantage.

We probably shouldn't forget win-loss percentage as a primary criteria.  That one is important, too. 
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bleedpurple

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 11, 2013, 09:39:18 PM
Quote from: AO on November 11, 2013, 08:29:23 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on November 11, 2013, 06:06:18 PM
I think that will only be considered if They are Unbeaten and tied ? :o that is my understanding but, I have been wrong once before ? ;D
dang it, I was mistaken.  You're right, they refuse to consider past playoff results among "beaten teams" because too much data makes their head hurt. 

I also meant to say that the likely MIAC team on the table (odds are this is St. Thomas) for the 5th bid would have a better SOS, not that they would be clearly considered by the d3football.com poll or by the majority of fans to be the best.   The Tommies SOS will drop by playing 1-9 St. Olaf .536 OOWP and Wabash's will drop less by playing 4-5 DePauw .4366 OOWP, but I don't think enough to cover the spread between the two.  I've got to think it's likely Concordia would stay in the regional rankings with a win over Gustavus, giving St. Thomas another advantage.

We probably shouldn't forget win-loss percentage as a primary criteria.  That one is important, too.

After listening to this week's podcast and hearing the list of one loss teams (and seeing who they play this week), I think the chances of any two loss teams making it are very, very slim. And the good thing is, none of them would have a valid complaint. Win your games.

hazzben

^^ I'd second this. Chaos on Saturday seems unlikely. And every 2 loss team has blown 2 chances to secure their fate.

I'm saying that as a Bethel fan that saw his team get in last year with two losses. I was glad we made it and think the field was stronger with us in it. But at the end of the day, if we'd been left home we'd have had no one to blame but ourselves.

AO

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 12, 2013, 08:41:16 AM
After listening to this week's podcast and hearing the list of one loss teams (and seeing who they play this week), I think the chances of any two loss teams making it are very, very slim. And the good thing is, none of them would have a valid complaint. Win your games.
The one loss teams didn't win their games either.  We see plenty of examples of 2 loss teams ranked ahead of 1 loss teams in the regional rankings.

art76

It is unlikely that any of us discussing the possibilities on this board will be sitting in the selection committee. Do they lurk? Unknown to me, Pat might know. One could hope that it was required reading because then they would have a feel for what "the country" is thinking in a collective sense. (Or at least what the vocal fans were saying/thinking.) Every year for the past 5 or so that I've been following closely here on D3.com a similar song gets sung - "my 2 or 3 loss team can beat your 1 loss team, so it should get in to Pool C".

Here's where teams with those 2 or 3 losses are at the mercy of the selection committee. Every year the criteria are set before the committee and for all fans to see. Where it can "go sideways" is because there is no hard and fast if/then logic involved. The committee has been given the leeway to "read the tea leaves" and look at the "body of work" that a team has posted up until the last game of the season. Because that's how it is done, 2 loss teams have a shot for Pool C.

Will it happen this year? I think not. In the West the best 2 loss team will most likely be St. Thomas and I am not certain that their body of work says that they deserve to get in over another team's 1 loss body of work. Can they still beat most of the field in the playoffs - oh yeah, but that's not who they are being compared to when they get selected. It will be three other teams, one from each region that the committee has to chose from, and most likely those three will only have a single loss this year.
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