2017 Season - National Perspective

Started by D3soccerwatcher, August 11, 2017, 10:25:42 PM

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PaulNewman

Quote from: blooter442 on October 16, 2017, 12:19:06 AM
Quote from: PaulNewman on October 15, 2017, 10:16:00 PM
What I take from the last few posts is that D3 isn't supposed to be just about ultra-elite New England private colleges, BUT, it also isn't supposed to be a breeding ground for transfer havens and soccer factories.

Agreed. As an aside, in looking at the list of award-winning schools, there are a number of impressive average team GPAs -- ones that stood out to me included Case Western (3.50), Colorado College (3.52), Haverford (3.51), Vassar (3.57), WashU (3.53), W&L (3.66), and MIT (3.59!). All very good schools in their own rights, so to have athletes maintaining those GPAs (major difficulty nonwithstanding) while playing soccer is really impressive.

My first reaction is that we are in an age of massive grade inflation.  I think colleges know that parents don't want to spend 65-70K a year and see their kids bring home a 2.75 or 2.5 semester.  My own kids certainly benefited.  That said, 3.66 and 3.59 for an entire team at schools like W&L and MIT is very impressive and hard to comprehend.

Shooter McGavin

Personally I think Rowan has more hype than they should. I have watched them play a couple times so far this season. Are they a good team? Of course they are. Do they have Final 4 caliber talent? Most certainly. But are they disciplined enough to mentally make a run of 6 straight games to a final? I don't think they are. They have 3 solid wins and 2 tough losses. I don't know if they have challenged themselves enough this year to prepare them for the treacherous journey of the NCAA tournament.

We saw it last year with a disappointing second round exit at home with all the national title hype. We saw it the previous year (2015) with a disappointing first round exit to Dickinson. I firmly believe last year's Rowan team was better than this year's Rowan team despite the lack of depth last year compared to this year. That would worry me if I were a Prof fan.

I am still not sure why they didn't challenge themselves more in the non-conference. Messiah, Lycomimg, and CNU are all great tests (1-2-0) but other than that they played 6 legit cupcakes and an under-performing F&M side. The NJAC is way down this year and that will hurt them come tournament time.

A lot depends on the draw, match-ups, health, and most importantly luck! We will see what happens for the Profs but I wouldn't be surprised to be talking about another 1st or 2nd round exit this year in about a month. 

Shooter McGavin

Shooter's Top 15
1. Calvin (13-0-1)---Despite being tripped up at Hope they still haven't lost and are a promising pick come NCAA's. 
2. Messiah (13-1-0)---Tuesday will tell us a lot and a win at Lyco will bump them to #1.
3. Tufts (10-1-1)---Allowed 1 goal all year. Hard to imagine anyone stopping these guys in November. 
4. St. Thomas (14-1-0)---Still nobody wants to talk about the Tommies! Top 4 in my book.
5. Chicago (13-1-0)---Nice bounce back this week and top 5 caliber keeps them right on the edge.
6. Lycoming (14-1-0)---A huge test as they host Messiah on Tuesday.
7. Oneonta St. (11-1-1)---The Red Dragons are off to a great start and look dangerous.
8. Rowan (14-2-0)---Massive win over Newark propels the Profs into the top 10.
9. Drew (14-0-1)---They refuse to lose! Look for an undefeated season heading into playoffs.
10. Trinity Tx (14-1-0)---Still uneasy about them but they keep winning and always have quality teams come NCAA's. 
11. Newark (15-2-0)---Battled hard at Rowan but fell short. Drops them slightly.
12. Springfield (13-0-0)---The last remaining unblemished team!
13. St. Joseph's (13-0-1)---Haven't given up a goal all year. That's impressive.
14. Cortland St. (13-2-0)---Still a dangerous squad. Look for them to be in the SUNYAC final vs Oneonta come early November.
15. Lynchburg (12-1-1)---Would not want to see this team come NCAA's.

RV: North Park (11-1-1), John Carroll (12-1-1), Hopkins (11-1-2), Gettysburg (11-2-0), Dean (10-0-2), Buffalo St (12-1-2), CNU (11-2-0), Brandeis (10-3-0), Mary Washington (11-2-1), Kenyon (10-2-2)

franklyspeaking

Rowan is a very good team, where that takes them in the end will not change the fact that they are very good.  You stated the NJAC is down this year, that is certainly true.  Some of the soccer being played is just not good at all.

Saint of Old

SUNYAC looks powerful this year, could be the year they have 3 contenders for a National title.

Flying Weasel

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 09:16:45 AM
Personally I think Rowan has more hype than they should. I have watched them play a couple times so far this season. Are they a good team? Of course they are. Do they have Final 4 caliber talent? Most certainly. But are they disciplined enough to mentally make a run of 6 straight games to a final? I don't think they are. They have 3 solid wins and 2 tough losses. I don't know if they have challenged themselves enough this year to prepare them for the treacherous journey of the NCAA tournament.

I wonder how often teams from the power conferences like NJAC, NESCAC, UAA, etc. schedule more than three or four Top 25-caliber non-conference opponents in a given season.  Who's on Tufts' and Amherst's and Connecticut's non-conference schedules?  Who's on Brandeis', Chicago's, Carnegie Mellon's non-conference schedules? Do any of them have a tougher non-conference schedule? Now Rowan couldn't know that Lycoming would bounce back to be this strong, so a little lucky there, but likewise, they couldn't know F&M would drop-off so much (due in part to losing Ugo Okolie for the season).  And Messiah wasn't on the schedule until Mount St. Vincent cancelled on the Messiah and they went looking for a replacement game.  But in the end, Rowan had Messiah, F&M, CNU and Lycoming on their non-conference schedule.  Now you are correct that the NJAC isn't as strong this year and so that hinders their preparation to make an NCAA run. As to cupcakes, it's only Albright and today's opponent Brooklyn that are ridiculous.  You're not going to be able to find Top 50 teams for every game date on your non-conference schedule.  I'm no Rowan fan--farthest from it--but I wouldn't be so critical of their schedule.

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 16, 2017, 10:27:51 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 09:16:45 AM
Personally I think Rowan has more hype than they should. I have watched them play a couple times so far this season. Are they a good team? Of course they are. Do they have Final 4 caliber talent? Most certainly. But are they disciplined enough to mentally make a run of 6 straight games to a final? I don't think they are. They have 3 solid wins and 2 tough losses. I don't know if they have challenged themselves enough this year to prepare them for the treacherous journey of the NCAA tournament.

I wonder how often teams from the power conferences like NJAC, NESCAC, UAA, etc. schedule more than three or four Top 25-caliber non-conference opponents in a given season.  Who's on Tufts' and Amherst's and Connecticut's non-conference schedules?  Who's on Brandeis', Chicago's, Carnegie Mellon's non-conference schedules? Do any of them have a tougher non-conference schedule? Now Rowan couldn't know that Lycoming would bounce back to be this strong, so a little lucky there, but likewise, they couldn't know F&M would drop-off so much (due in part to losing Ugo Okolie for the season).  And Messiah wasn't on the schedule until Mount St. Vincent cancelled on the Messiah and they went looking for a replacement game.  But in the end, Rowan had Messiah, F&M, CNU and Lycoming on their non-conference schedule.  Now you are correct that the NJAC isn't as strong this year and so that hinders their preparation to make an NCAA run. As to cupcakes, it's only Albright and today's opponent Brooklyn that are ridiculous.  You're not going to be able to find Top 50 teams for every game date on your non-conference schedule.  I'm no Rowan fan--farthest from it--but I wouldn't be so critical of their schedule.

There is no middle ground though. They played 3 very good teams, F&M who is the only tweener, then the others are all soft cupcakes.

Keystone, Albright, Frostburg, F&M, Hood, Muhlenberg, Brooklyn combined record of 38-49-11. Subtract Keystone who is currently 9-4-1 but plays a super weak schedule and you're looking at 29-45-10! 

Sure they couldn't predict that the NJAC would be down and sure they play 3 solid teams plus F&M, but then to turnaround and play 6 gimme games isn't impressive to me. And better yet, they lost to 2 of the 3 hard games they had to play. Why would that make me believe they are capable of making a final 4 when they play 3 hard non-conference games and lose twice?

Clearly Rowan is a top 15 team everyday of the week. They have a great combo of size, athleticism, and speed mixed with talented players. But defensively they struggle verse above average teams giving up 7 goals in in the 3 games to CNU, Messiah and Lycoming. Sure you Prof lovers will argue that they have the most goals scored in men's soccer for D1, D2, and D3 to date and that's great but Tufts has proven that defense will get you the crown at the end of the year. Come NCAA's giving up 2+ goals a game will come back to haunt you. Last fun fact of this post...Rowan has given up 2+ goals in 6 games this season. Tufts has given up 1 goal all year........   

Mid-Atlantic Fan

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 12:09:38 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 16, 2017, 10:27:51 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 09:16:45 AM
Personally I think Rowan has more hype than they should. I have watched them play a couple times so far this season. Are they a good team? Of course they are. Do they have Final 4 caliber talent? Most certainly. But are they disciplined enough to mentally make a run of 6 straight games to a final? I don't think they are. They have 3 solid wins and 2 tough losses. I don't know if they have challenged themselves enough this year to prepare them for the treacherous journey of the NCAA tournament.

I wonder how often teams from the power conferences like NJAC, NESCAC, UAA, etc. schedule more than three or four Top 25-caliber non-conference opponents in a given season.  Who's on Tufts' and Amherst's and Connecticut's non-conference schedules?  Who's on Brandeis', Chicago's, Carnegie Mellon's non-conference schedules? Do any of them have a tougher non-conference schedule? Now Rowan couldn't know that Lycoming would bounce back to be this strong, so a little lucky there, but likewise, they couldn't know F&M would drop-off so much (due in part to losing Ugo Okolie for the season).  And Messiah wasn't on the schedule until Mount St. Vincent cancelled on the Messiah and they went looking for a replacement game.  But in the end, Rowan had Messiah, F&M, CNU and Lycoming on their non-conference schedule.  Now you are correct that the NJAC isn't as strong this year and so that hinders their preparation to make an NCAA run. As to cupcakes, it's only Albright and today's opponent Brooklyn that are ridiculous.  You're not going to be able to find Top 50 teams for every game date on your non-conference schedule.  I'm no Rowan fan--farthest from it--but I wouldn't be so critical of their schedule.

There is no middle ground though. They played 3 very good teams, F&M who is the only tweener, then the others are all soft cupcakes.

Keystone, Albright, Frostburg, F&M, Hood, Muhlenberg, Brooklyn combined record of 38-49-11. Subtract Keystone who is currently 9-4-1 but plays a super weak schedule and you're looking at 29-45-10! 

Sure they couldn't predict that the NJAC would be down and sure they play 3 solid teams plus F&M, but then to turnaround and play 6 gimme games isn't impressive to me. And better yet, they lost to 2 of the 3 hard games they had to play. Why would that make me believe they are capable of making a final 4 when they play 3 hard non-conference games and lose twice?

Clearly Rowan is a top 15 team everyday of the week. They have a great combo of size, athleticism, and speed mixed with talented players. But defensively they struggle verse above average teams giving up 7 goals in in the 3 games to CNU, Messiah and Lycoming. Sure you Prof lovers will argue that they have the most goals scored in men's soccer for D1, D2, and D3 to date and that's great but Tufts has proven that defense will get you the crown at the end of the year. Come NCAA's giving up 2+ goals a game will come back to haunt you. Last fun fact of this post...Rowan has given up 2+ goals in 6 games this season. Tufts has given up 1 goal all year........

It's a fair assessment to have Shooter but I like Flying Weasel's point on UAA and NESCAC schedules etc and that they most likely don't have overall strong non-conference slates either. Rowan is NCAA Sweet 16 good for sure in my opinion.   

Flying Weasel

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 12:09:38 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 16, 2017, 10:27:51 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 09:16:45 AM
Personally I think Rowan has more hype than they should. I have watched them play a couple times so far this season. Are they a good team? Of course they are. Do they have Final 4 caliber talent? Most certainly. But are they disciplined enough to mentally make a run of 6 straight games to a final? I don't think they are. They have 3 solid wins and 2 tough losses. I don't know if they have challenged themselves enough this year to prepare them for the treacherous journey of the NCAA tournament.

I wonder how often teams from the power conferences like NJAC, NESCAC, UAA, etc. schedule more than three or four Top 25-caliber non-conference opponents in a given season.  Who's on Tufts' and Amherst's and Connecticut's non-conference schedules?  Who's on Brandeis', Chicago's, Carnegie Mellon's non-conference schedules? Do any of them have a tougher non-conference schedule? Now Rowan couldn't know that Lycoming would bounce back to be this strong, so a little lucky there, but likewise, they couldn't know F&M would drop-off so much (due in part to losing Ugo Okolie for the season).  And Messiah wasn't on the schedule until Mount St. Vincent cancelled on the Messiah and they went looking for a replacement game.  But in the end, Rowan had Messiah, F&M, CNU and Lycoming on their non-conference schedule.  Now you are correct that the NJAC isn't as strong this year and so that hinders their preparation to make an NCAA run. As to cupcakes, it's only Albright and today's opponent Brooklyn that are ridiculous.  You're not going to be able to find Top 50 teams for every game date on your non-conference schedule.  I'm no Rowan fan--farthest from it--but I wouldn't be so critical of their schedule.

There is no middle ground though. They played 3 very good teams, F&M who is the only tweener, then the others are all soft cupcakes.

Keystone, Albright, Frostburg, F&M, Hood, Muhlenberg, Brooklyn combined record of 38-49-11. Subtract Keystone who is currently 9-4-1 but plays a super weak schedule and you're looking at 29-45-10! 

Sure they couldn't predict that the NJAC would be down and sure they play 3 solid teams plus F&M, but then to turnaround and play 6 gimme games isn't impressive to me. And better yet, they lost to 2 of the 3 hard games they had to play. Why would that make me believe they are capable of making a final 4 when they play 3 hard non-conference games and lose twice?

Clearly Rowan is a top 15 team everyday of the week. They have a great combo of size, athleticism, and speed mixed with talented players. But defensively they struggle verse above average teams giving up 7 goals in in the 3 games to CNU, Messiah and Lycoming. Sure you Prof lovers will argue that they have the most goals scored in men's soccer for D1, D2, and D3 to date and that's great but Tufts has proven that defense will get you the crown at the end of the year. Come NCAA's giving up 2+ goals a game will come back to haunt you. Last fun fact of this post...Rowan has given up 2+ goals in 6 games this season. Tufts has given up 1 goal all year........   

Their two losses to three of their top non-conference opponents isn't a reason to say they couldn't make a Final Four run, because both those games could have gone either way, and the Messiah one especially could have and should have been won and if re-played very well may have been won. The more concerning thing is the two goals conceded to a several average/mediocre opponents over halfway into the season.  But Im not arguing about Rowan's chances to make a Final Four run, my point is that I'd guess that your criticism of Rowan's scheduling would apply to at least half the team's in the Top 25 if put under the same scrutiny.  Looking through it's hard to say that Tufts, Rutgers-Newark, Hopkins, Lyco, Amherst, Springfield, Drew, Heidelberg, Connecticut, Gettysburg, etc. have any better non-conference schedules.  You strip away their top few opponents and they too all full of teams that would be cupcakes by the standard you used for Rowan's opponents (a standard I don't agree with as I would differentiate between average, mediocre, soft opponents and cupcakes).

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 16, 2017, 02:52:38 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 12:09:38 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 16, 2017, 10:27:51 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 16, 2017, 09:16:45 AM
Personally I think Rowan has more hype than they should. I have watched them play a couple times so far this season. Are they a good team? Of course they are. Do they have Final 4 caliber talent? Most certainly. But are they disciplined enough to mentally make a run of 6 straight games to a final? I don't think they are. They have 3 solid wins and 2 tough losses. I don't know if they have challenged themselves enough this year to prepare them for the treacherous journey of the NCAA tournament.

I wonder how often teams from the power conferences like NJAC, NESCAC, UAA, etc. schedule more than three or four Top 25-caliber non-conference opponents in a given season.  Who's on Tufts' and Amherst's and Connecticut's non-conference schedules?  Who's on Brandeis', Chicago's, Carnegie Mellon's non-conference schedules? Do any of them have a tougher non-conference schedule? Now Rowan couldn't know that Lycoming would bounce back to be this strong, so a little lucky there, but likewise, they couldn't know F&M would drop-off so much (due in part to losing Ugo Okolie for the season).  And Messiah wasn't on the schedule until Mount St. Vincent cancelled on the Messiah and they went looking for a replacement game.  But in the end, Rowan had Messiah, F&M, CNU and Lycoming on their non-conference schedule.  Now you are correct that the NJAC isn't as strong this year and so that hinders their preparation to make an NCAA run. As to cupcakes, it's only Albright and today's opponent Brooklyn that are ridiculous.  You're not going to be able to find Top 50 teams for every game date on your non-conference schedule.  I'm no Rowan fan--farthest from it--but I wouldn't be so critical of their schedule.

There is no middle ground though. They played 3 very good teams, F&M who is the only tweener, then the others are all soft cupcakes.

Keystone, Albright, Frostburg, F&M, Hood, Muhlenberg, Brooklyn combined record of 38-49-11. Subtract Keystone who is currently 9-4-1 but plays a super weak schedule and you're looking at 29-45-10! 

Sure they couldn't predict that the NJAC would be down and sure they play 3 solid teams plus F&M, but then to turnaround and play 6 gimme games isn't impressive to me. And better yet, they lost to 2 of the 3 hard games they had to play. Why would that make me believe they are capable of making a final 4 when they play 3 hard non-conference games and lose twice?

Clearly Rowan is a top 15 team everyday of the week. They have a great combo of size, athleticism, and speed mixed with talented players. But defensively they struggle verse above average teams giving up 7 goals in in the 3 games to CNU, Messiah and Lycoming. Sure you Prof lovers will argue that they have the most goals scored in men's soccer for D1, D2, and D3 to date and that's great but Tufts has proven that defense will get you the crown at the end of the year. Come NCAA's giving up 2+ goals a game will come back to haunt you. Last fun fact of this post...Rowan has given up 2+ goals in 6 games this season. Tufts has given up 1 goal all year........   

Their two losses to three of their top non-conference opponents isn't a reason to say they couldn't make a Final Four run, because both those games could have gone either way, and the Messiah one especially could have and should have been won and if re-played very well may have been won. The more concerning thing is the two goals conceded to a several average/mediocre opponents over halfway into the season.  But Im not arguing about Rowan's chances to make a Final Four run, my point is that I'd guess that your criticism of Rowan's scheduling would apply to at least half the team's in the Top 25 if put under the same scrutiny.  Looking through it's hard to say that Tufts, Rutgers-Newark, Hopkins, Lyco, Amherst, Springfield, Drew, Heidelberg, Connecticut, Gettysburg, etc. have any better non-conference schedules.  You strip away their top few opponents and they too all full of teams that would be cupcakes by the standard you used for Rowan's opponents (a standard I don't agree with as I would differentiate between average, mediocre, soft opponents and cupcakes).

Very true about the two losses out of three not being a factor to say they couldn't or won't make a final 4 run. I guess my point I am trying to get at (which I have done poorly thus far) is if Rowan is so good and they think they are so good then why wouldn't they challenge themselves more this season? If this is the year for them to win it all why would they play such a lackluster schedule? Why wouldn't they replace Albright or Frostburg with a team like Elizabethtown or Roanoke? Teams that are going to be good and a test but on paper Rowan should be able to handle. This isn't about other teams schedules like you mentioned. Those teams aren't claiming to be national champion favorites before the season even started. And no one on these boards were pushing for any of those above teams you listed to be final 4 favorites...at least I wasn't besides Amherst and Tufts. I just view it as a lot of talk and not a lot to back up the hype yet. They may very well run the table and make it to the final 4 but from what I have seen the defense struggles, the goalie struggles, and they are hot headed and ultimately undisciplined. I am not yet sold. They have the talent, athleticism, size, speed and skill but a shaky defense and lack of discipline will not go a long way in the tournament.     

Shooter McGavin

Just for kicks, if I had to choose right now, my final 4 teams would be Tufts, Messiah, St. Thomas, and Oneonta St. These 4 will most likely change 296239 times before the bracket ever gets released and then they will change 2392472392 more times when there is a bracket!  ;D

Go2Goal

Shooter. Your clearly a Messiah homer. Your speaking from an uneducated perspective when it comes to scheduling. We will see what the SOS numbers look like soon enough. Coach Baker is in his fourth season in charge after taking over on the day before preseason in 2014! Under his guidance the program has gone 10-9, 16-6, 17-3-1 and this year looking at 17-2 entering the playoffs. With two losses that  fall flat on the shoulders of the keeper who is no longer starting. All I can say is your right Rowan hasn't done it yet in the Baker era. But they have taken over the NJAC and put themselves in position to again have Home field advantage. They had a team full of sophomores last year let's see what they get done with more upperclassmen playing this year.

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: Go2Goal on October 16, 2017, 10:55:25 PM
Shooter. Your clearly a Messiah homer. Your speaking from an uneducated perspective when it comes to scheduling. We will see what the SOS numbers look like soon enough. Coach Baker is in his fourth season in charge after taking over on the day before preseason in 2014! Under his guidance the program has gone 10-9, 16-6, 17-3-1 and this year looking at 17-2 entering the playoffs. With two losses that  fall flat on the shoulders of the keeper who is no longer starting. All I can say is your right Rowan hasn't done it yet in the Baker era. But they have taken over the NJAC and put themselves in position to again have Home field advantage. They had a team full of sophomores last year let's see what they get done with more upperclassmen playing this year.

You're* (Must be that NJ education  ;) )

How does anything in my statements make me a "Messiah" homer? Is it because Messiah actually challenged themselves in the non-conference? Haverford did as well. Does that make me a "Haverford" homer?

My statements have not discredited that the Profs are a solid team. In my opinion they are not Final 4 good like many people claim. They are undisciplined and struggle defensively. That's not a recipe for success in NCAA's.

And I will try one last time with this emphasis...if Rowan thinks and says and taunts that they are the best team in the country then why were they scared to schedule a little more competition than 4 games (6 total not counting 2 NJAC games) where they won by 5+ goals? Do you honestly think those 4 games will help them more than playing a team like Etown or Eastern or York or Virginia Wesleyan? Anybody with about a .500 record or better that is half decent. Those 4 teams of winning by 5+goals is a joke. Maybe you have 1 or 2 of those games a year but 6??? And you want to say they challenged themselves enough? LOL. They boast the most goals scored in D3 but that's because they played a bunch of cupcakes and almost half of the 64 goals they have came verse only 4 teams!

Finally, I think Rowan is a VERY GOOD team! I am not taking that away from them. But in my opinion they will not make the Final 4 unless they get a favorable draw which we won't know for a couple weeks yet. Lack of discipline and defense will not win you a championship.   

Flying Weasel

Quote from: Go2Goal on October 16, 2017, 10:55:25 PM
Shooter. Your clearly a Messiah homer.

Shooter, a Messiah homer?!?!? You apparently haven't been paying attention.

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 17, 2017, 11:49:56 AM
Quote from: Go2Goal on October 16, 2017, 10:55:25 PM
Shooter. Your clearly a Messiah homer.

Shooter, a Messiah homer?!?!? You apparently haven't been paying attention.

Case and point. Thank you FW  ;D

Will you be at the Messiah/Lyco match today? Keep us posted if so! I will be watching from a computer screen.