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Post Patterns (Division III football) => General football => Topic started by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 pm

Title: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 pm
Okay, it's October and the 5th weekend of play.  Let's start looking at the playoffs. ;D

The Handbook is out.

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2005/2005_d3_football_handbook.pdf

The Handbook says that there will be 4 Pool B bids.  They calculated that by the Pool A access ratio.  There are 189 teams in the 21 AQ conferences which gives an access ratio of 1:9.00.

North Region Pool B's:  6   UAA (U Chicago and CWRU); 4 North Region teams from the UMAC (the non-recognized conference that has several members moving thru the Provisional Stages including football affiliates: Blackburn, Principia, Rockford, Westminster MO).

East Region Pool B's:  6  The unofficial ACFC (Brockport St and Buffalo State); Independents Becker, Husson, Mount Ida and Plymouth State.

West Region Pool B's:  12  NWC (6 and I assume that Lewis & Clark still counts) Independents for 2005 Chapman, Colorado College, Macalester and Menlo; UMAC (Maranatha Baptist and  Martin Luther).  I am assuming that Neb Wesleyan will not have enough D3 games to be recognized by the selection committee  (For that matter, will Lewis & Clark?)

South Region Pool B's: 13   UAA (Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon), Presidents AC 7, ACFC (Frostburg St, Salisbury, Wesley) Independent Huntingdon.  (I am assuming that Chowan, which is going to D2, is incorrectly listed.  Newport News Apprentice is recognized as an affililate NCAA member, but is ineligible for the playoffs.)

Thirty-seven (37) Pool B teams divided by the access Ratio of 1:9 gives 4.111 bids which is truncated to 4 bids.

Corrections appreciated.

Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2005, 10:14:34 pm
Whither Pool B--2011

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 6+ years.  At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Remain.  Four to Pool A.

UAA (U Chicago and CWRU) has announced their joint scheduling arrangement with the NCAC, but this does not alter the Pool B status of the UAA.

The "UMAC 4" affiliates include:

Rockford from the Northern Illinois-Iowa Conference which has announced its merger with the Lake MIchigan conference and should play in a Pool A Football by 2008.

Blackburn, Principia and Westminster MO  (SLAIC) are in discussion with the UMAC to play as an affiliates in a Pool A conference that should be online in Fall 2011 at the latest.

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses. CCIW (8 ). HCAC ( 8 with RHIT joining), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7 with Tri-State on board and Wisconsin Lutheran returning to the "new Lake Michigan-NIIC" in 2008).  With the IBC disbanding in the Lake Michigan-NIIC merger, the "new conference" will have 8 football-playing members: Aurora, Benedictine, Concordia IL, Concordia WI, Lakeland, Maranatha Baptist and Rockford playing in the current UMAC and Wisconsin Lutheran.

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region. 

The remaining North Region Pool B schools are the UAA's UChicago and CWRU.

East Region:  6 Remain. Two to Pool A.

Buffalo State leaves the ACFC for the NJAC next year.
Plymouth St moves to the NEFC which also adds Coast Guard.

We have heard of SUNY-Maritime playing a varsity schedule in 2006 and Provisional SUNY-Morrisville scheduled to be full member in Fall 2010.  Both are investigating conference affiliations.

Becker, Husson and Mount Ida are members of the North Atlantic Conference (NAC).  Maine Maritime from the New England FC Bogan is also a member of the NAC.  Only 4 core members are required for a conference to sponsor a sport (cf. Liberty League).  An aggressive NAC could add 3 more affiliates by Fall 2009 and be Pool A by Fall 2011.  Some have expressed the lament of this weak group of teams getting a valuable Pool A bid, but it would be "legal".

The SUNY might have 4 core members by Fall 2011, Cortland, Buffalo, Brockport  and a Morrisville.  This might be at the expense of the NJAC, but I do not anticipate any moves in the next few years creating more Pool B schools.

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in Parentheses. Empire 8 (7), Liberty League (7) with migration of the Coast Guard to the NEFC, MAC (11), NJAC (8 ) with migration of Buffalo State and NEFC (16) with the addition of Plymouth St and Coast Guard.


By 2011, I anticipate 5 Pool A conferences with 49 members in the East Region.

The remaining 6 Pool B: Brockport St, SUNY Maritime, SUNY Morrisville, Becker, Husson and Mount Ida.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2005, 11:29:39 pm
West Region: 4 Remain. Ten to Pool A.

Northwest Conference--Before the Lewis & Clark meltdown, the Northwest Conference was headed for Pool A status with the affiliation of Menlo.  Also, there have been rumors of George Fox and Pacific OR adding football.  Assuming that L&C gets back on track, or one of these adds football, the Northwest Conference will be Pool A.

Colorado College is strongly considered to be one of the candidates to be invited to the new SCAC, which has stated its intention to have two 6-member divisions.

The Upper Midwest AC is an old NAIA conference that has all of its members as either full or provisional, with the excpetion of Trinity Bible College.  (The UMAC will need to address the TBC issue, if its wishes NCAA status.)  By 2011, the UMAC will have 4 full football-playing members (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris and Northwestern WI) that can form the core around which affiliates can join to get the AQ.  Currently, those likely candidates include football-playing SLIAC members Blackburn, Greenville, MacMurray, Principia, Westminster MO and new prospect Eureka.

This new 10-member conference would likely have Pool A status by 2011, if not sooner, depending on NCAA interpretation.  As a result, all of the Pool B's from this area would move to Pool A.

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference (7), SCIAC (7), Upper Midwest AC (10), WIAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 60 members in the West Region.

The remaining four West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester, Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years, and Doane NE which has begun the exploratory phase of joining D3.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2005, 11:58:24 pm
South Region:  7 Remain. Seven to Pool A.

The Presidents AC has begun to add football-playing schools.  Thomas More joined last spring.  St Vincent's announced it is adding football, going thru the NCAA Provisional status and joining the Pres AC.  Likewise for Geneva, and even Seton Hill is rumored to be on the "Dance Card".  The Pres AC will have 9 teams by 2011, seven of whom are current Pool B's.

Huntingdon is now in its third year and LaGrange will start next year.  Let's assume that they do not find a Pool A conference by 2011, but rather fill out the schedules of the SCAC, ASC and USAC members.

UAA members Wash St Louis and Carnegie Mellon are likely to remain in Pool B.  They have a contract to fill their schedules with NCAC opponents.

The ACFC remains vulnerable.  Wesley is close to the NJAC.  Frostburg and Salisbury may have trouble finding a schedule if the conferences on the seaboard start expanding to the exclusion of non-conference schedules.  Neither fate, Pool A or Pool B would surprise me concerning these schools.  Brockport is "in the same boat", and the NCAA bylaws will not permit the ACFC to move to Pool A status as the IBC and NEFC are.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9 with the loss of Austin College to the SCAC), Centennial (7), ODAC (7), President AC (9), SCAC (8 with AC replacing RHIT and the speculated addition of Colorado College), USAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 48 members in the South Region.

The seven remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Huntingdon, LaGrange, Wesley, Frostburg St and Salisbury.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: smedindy on October 02, 2005, 12:27:35 am
So Ralph, is pool B going to be dead, or just weaker? Could the NCAA look at this and decide that this pool stuff doesn't work for football?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2005, 12:54:00 am
The current NCAA by-laws would calculate the Pool A access ratio to be that 24 conferences have 208 members which gives an access ratio of 1:8.666.  The 19 Pool B members would compete for 2 bids.

The ACFC "champ" might like that.  Does Brockport have a better chance at a bid in Pool B or competing in the NJAC?  Can they get enough games in Pool B?

The UAA has earned one playoff bid under the Pool System.  Would they fare better?

I anticipate that the East Region will consolidate some more.  If I were Mount Ida, Becker or Husson, I would put pressure on my North Atlantic Conference commissioner to bring fellow member Maine Maritime back, add 3-4 affiliates and get a Pool A.

Does the SUNYAC add football?  Cortland, Buffalo, Brockport, Morrisville as core members?  Hopefully not at the expense of the NJAC!

I anticipate that the members of the ACFC will find other homes.

I wonder why the UAA did not invite 3 specific members from the 10-member NCAC to affiliate with them so both conferences could have an AQ.  My SAT scores are probably not high enough to understand their reasoning, or maybe the playoffs interfere too much with studying!

We have seen numerous schools add football in the last decade.  It does help with the male:female ratio. 

I actually think that the conference structure has become stronger under the Pool system.  The Pool system is utilized for all NCAA D-III playoffs, so the NCAA won't scrap this just for football.  Also, I think that the Pools decrease the mischief that existed in the "good ol' boy system" previously.

The remaining 19 in this scenario will have a couple of acceptable teams getting bids.  It has also shunted the independents into conferences where a champ can be determined.  I believe the 32-team format will allow really good Pool C teams to play and win.  There will not likely be too many one-loss teams getting bids, and if the 32 team format allows HSU-Linfield matches that are non-region and don't hurt you, then we fans win!

I also believe that the 4 Pool B's this year will be worthy opponents. :)

This will be interesting to watch. 
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2005, 12:07:53 pm
My picks for Pool B rankings after the 5th week of games.

1)  Linfield--of course!
2)  Thiel--great win for the Tomcats! They just messed up everyone else.
3)  Salisbury--the depth at QB seems sufficient to carry them.
4)  W&J--too good for too long.  May finish 9-1/7-1 South Region and have a win over possible HCAC Champ Hanover.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

5)  Wesley--Big match with Salisbury may determine the ACFC's "bid".
6)  Whitworth--may finish with a West Region record of 6-1 or better.
7)  Huntingdon--Game of the year for the Hawks in San Antonio on Saturday.  I believe that HC must defeat Trinity this week to get a bid, especially after Thiel's win. And I believe that Huntingdon must run the "South Region" table.


There are no "bumblers" getting Pool B bids this year.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 02, 2005, 12:18:19 pm
I refuse to think about 2011. :)
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2005, 01:40:46 pm
Pat, I am glad you reminded me.  I left out my prediction that the D3football.com "hit counter" would have passed 42 million by then! ;)
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: TecmoYellowHat on October 04, 2005, 03:39:38 pm
Is Linfield an independent?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: smedindy on October 04, 2005, 04:02:37 pm
No, they are in the NWC, which doesn't have enough football playing members to qualify for a "A". And they may or may not be able to get there, without some fancy footwork, thanks to the situation at Lewis & Clark.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: TecmoYellowHat on October 04, 2005, 04:56:05 pm
What is the situation at Lewis and Clark?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 04, 2005, 06:01:02 pm
tecmo, please see the Notables on Sept 8th, and go to page 25 on the Northwest Conference message board.

http://www.d3football.com/notables.php?date=2005-09-08

 :(
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 06, 2005, 05:12:02 pm
Wow. I need to catch up here.

Pat, can you be sure to never delete this board?  ;D
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 06, 2005, 05:16:39 pm
Whither Pool B--2011 At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

Sorry, nothing I've seen beats 10-0 Emory & Henry being the fifth of five unbeatens in the South Region in 1998, the last year of the old 16-team system.

Not that they would have won it all or anything ...
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: smedindy on October 06, 2005, 05:32:14 pm
Oh, and then there's the 1982 Wabash 10-0 team...sigh...
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Cleveland Cartel on October 12, 2005, 04:28:12 pm
Ralph,

Do you honestly believe WJ will beat Wesley out of the final pool B spot????  I find that hard to believe right now, because isnt Wesley still undefeated??? I could be wrong, but atleast I thought they were still????
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 12, 2005, 07:10:39 pm
Cartel, Pool B is gonna be a mess! ???  I think that Bob Gregg may have a chance  to look clairvoyent with his prediction that a Pool B will get a Pool C bid!
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 16, 2005, 06:01:26 pm
I too think there are some Pool B's that could steal a Pool C, although to be clear, my understanding is it's:

21 Pool A (automatic bids)
4 Pool B
7 Everyone else (Pool C/B, a.k.a. Pool A runners-up, Pool B overflow)

so it's not really taking a bid that "belongs" to a Pool C, per se. And it's not necessarily 21 AQs and the next best 11 either, if Pool B has a bad year or a lot of poor finishes this year.

Right now, solid Pool B chances:
Linfield
Thiel
Wesley/Salisbury winner
Whitworth if it wins out (1 loss out of division, 1 to Linfield)
W&J with one three-point loss in OT
Wesley if its only loss is to Salisbury, and DePauw is in
Huntingdon if its only loss is by 5 on the road to Trinity

-- That's about everyone with a chance, maybe Thomas More or Willamette, and I doubt Rockford could get in even with just 1 loss.

-- But you could have 6 or 7 solid cases for Pool B teams.

Now here's an interesting question:
Say Thomas More beats Thiel, but loses to Mt. St. Joseph in its finale. It could win the PAC and be unbeaten, but be 7-3. Thiel would be 9-1 and W&J would be 8-2 (assuming it loses to TM ... play along here)

Does the committee have to take the champion in Pool B? I think the answer is no ... The last time I remember three teams in a Pool B conference with legitimate playoff claims was NWC 2001 though, and I think PLU and Whitworth went and Linfield stayed home.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 16, 2005, 06:09:44 pm
Well,
 as I read backwards ... looks like not much has changed.

 Karma for Ralph.

My picks for Pool B rankings after the 5th week of games.

1)  Linfield--of course!
2)  Thiel--great win for the Tomcats! They just messed up everyone else.
3)  Salisbury--the depth at QB seems sufficient to carry them.
4)  W&J--too good for too long.  May finish 9-1/7-1 South Region and have a win over possible HCAC Champ Hanover.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

5)  Wesley--Big match with Salisbury may determine the ACFC's "bid".
6)  Whitworth--may finish with a West Region record of 6-1 or better.
7)  Huntingdon--Game of the year for the Hawks in San Antonio on Saturday.  I believe that HC must defeat Trinity this week to get a bid, especially after Thiel's win. And I believe that Huntingdon must run the "South Region" table.


There are no "bumblers" getting Pool B bids this year.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2005, 07:51:25 pm
Thanks, K-mack!

Because the ratio designating the number of Pool B bids is related to the number of Pool A conference members divided by the number of conferences, the schools in Pool B are lumped into one big conference and given that ratio of bids.

In weak Pool B bid years, they don't get an extra bid.  In strong years, their "5th", "6th" and maybe "7th" teams are definitely stronger than the weakest Pool a bids.

This is interesting.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: religion_major on October 16, 2005, 07:59:09 pm
W&J had better win out if they want a pool B bid.  I think both pools B and C (AQ leftovers and pool B leftovers) are too strong this year for a two loss team to get in.  I believe that a loss to Waynesburg or Thomas Moore will keep W&J out of the playoffs come November.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 17, 2005, 02:24:46 pm
W&J had better win out if they want a pool B bid.  I think both pools B and C (AQ leftovers and pool B leftovers) are too strong this year for a two loss team to get in.  I believe that a loss to Waynesburg or Thomas Moore will keep W&J out of the playoffs come November.

I agree 100%, major.  My contention, though, has been that IF W&J wins out, they get in.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: religion_major on October 17, 2005, 03:07:52 pm
W&J had better win out if they want a pool B bid.  I think both pools B and C (AQ leftovers and pool B leftovers) are too strong this year for a two loss team to get in.  I believe that a loss to Waynesburg or Thomas Moore will keep W&J out of the playoffs come November.

I agree 100%, major. My contention, though, has been that IF W&J wins out, they get in.

I must state that in my humble opinion there is no way that a 9-1 W&J team does not go to the playoffs.  The pool c ranks are thining from AQ runner-ups and if Wesley hold off W&J for the last pool B slot then I think (I know this will sound like herisey to my fellow ODAC posters and posters from pool A confrences) but W&J will at lest get a pool c bid at 9-1.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 18, 2005, 06:34:57 am
Yeah, I don't see why they wouldn't ... shouldn't be too many one-loss teams left over with the four extra bids and the Pool B/C flexibility.

But one never knows what the pool of contenders will look like ... some years, you have 9-1 teams from power conferences (UMHB, although it was before the ASC had proved itself) and other years they're deciding between teams with multiple losses for spot No. 28 (CNU and Ithaca? last year)

So it definitely early to say. A W&J 9-1 could be left out, but you'd think with the four extra bids it would be really rare ... IF we had an unbeaten Linfield, Thiel and Wesley, then W&J and a Whitworth with an out-of-division loss and a 15-point loss to No. 1 overall ... who do you take?

Them both over some 9-1 runner-up like St. Norbert or (can't believe I'm saying this) Washington & Lee, I guess.

Should be really interesting.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 18, 2005, 12:16:00 pm
...A W&J 9-1 could be left out, but you'd think with the four extra bids it would be really rare ... IF we had an unbeaten Linfield, Thiel and Wesley, then W&J and a Whitworth with an out-of-division loss and a 15-point loss to No. 1 overall ... who do you take?

Them both over some 9-1 runner-up like St. Norbert or (can't believe I'm saying this) Washington & Lee, I guess.

K-Mack, of course, we're not talking just about being left out of Pool B, which your list could do.  But then, there are SEVEN Pool C bids, not just 4 extra.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 18, 2005, 02:40:02 pm
But four more than last year.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: religion_major on October 18, 2005, 04:14:04 pm
K-mack,
This may be a minor point, but a 9-1 W&L team would be an AQ via the ODAC.  A loss to Bridgewater would drop them to 8-2 with their earlier loss to Centre and into possible pool concideration.  At 8-2 without a win over a playoff team I think that W&L would be highly unlikely to recieve an invitation via pool c.  From the ODAC standpoint it is Pool A or stay home at this point for both Bridgewater and Washington and Lee.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 19, 2005, 03:50:28 pm
Religion,
 you are correct. I was thinking of the Centre loss ... but reaching for a team to go with St. Norbert. Duh.

Bob.Gregg,
 I'm not sure what your last post was getting at.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 19, 2005, 04:41:39 pm
K-Mack,

you wrote:  "IF we had an unbeaten Linfield, Thiel and Wesley, then W&J and a Whitworth with an out-of-division loss and a 15-point loss to No. 1 overall ... who do you take?

Them both over some 9-1 runner-up like St. Norbert or (can't believe I'm saying this) Washington & Lee, I guess."


I read that as W&J, Whitworth, St. Norbert, Washington & Lee and others were vying for FOUR spots.

W&J & Whitworth are vying for inclusion in Pool B (four spots), then if not successful, for inclusion in Pool C (seven additional spots).

That's all.  Perhaps I misread your post.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 21, 2005, 10:49:27 pm
W&J & Whitworth are vying for inclusion in Pool B (four spots), then if not successful, for inclusion in Pool C (seven additional spots).

That's all.  Perhaps I misread your post.

You and I are saying the same thing.

Perhaps I'm confusing because I refer to teams as from Pool B or Pool C leagues ... you seem to be saying the four bids are Pool B, then the next seven are Pool C.

Regardless, we both mean the same thing.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2005, 04:16:47 pm
Quote
inkman




     Re: Atlantic Central Football Conference/Independents
« Reply #585 on: Today at 03:06:59 PM »   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
47-0 final.  Monkey stomp.   


Brockport defeated Wesley today.  Luvapontiac described it as "an old fashioned butt whippin going on up in NY!"

Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Hawks88 on October 22, 2005, 05:18:10 pm
I would like to go ahead and thank Brockport for giving Huntingdon a little Pool B help today.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: repete on October 22, 2005, 06:23:57 pm
KMack, Bob Gregg:

If the runner-up from the Midwest Conference gets in as a Pool C, then the playoffs are too big at 32  . . .
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 23, 2005, 02:43:46 am
1) Linfield--rolling
2) Thiel--rolling
3) W&J--rolling
4) ACFC winner (Salisbury vs Wesley)  Salisbury could finish undefeated in the South Region.  That is probably best for everyone else.  Today's Wesley loss is not "in-Region" but it certainly hurt comparing it as a common opponent vis-a-vis Salisbury.

5) Huntingdon--probably contending for the 7th Pool C bid, especially if Trinity is the #1 South Region seed.  I wish they had played Thomas More!

6) ACFC loser, especially if it is Wesley.

7)  Willamette/Whitworth--Face off on Nov 5th.  Lewis & Clark cancelation hurts!

Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: ktroutvon on October 23, 2005, 05:17:33 pm
Ralph,

  Should pool A schools with an outside shot at a second, pool C bid start looking at fringe pool B teams?  I'm not clear on the evaluation that would move a pool B school to pool C.

  I'm sure that it is in FAQ, but I'm also conviced that you could explain it better.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: gordonmann on October 23, 2005, 05:42:40 pm
Ktroutvon:

I'm assuming you meant "should pool A conferences...," not pool A schools.  Pool A schools can start making plans for the postseason and stay above the fray. :)

The short answer is, yes, fans hoping for a Pool C bid -- such as those in the Liberty League -- would be wise to monitor the Pool B scenario as well.

The process by which a B team becomes a C team is pretty simple.  The NCAA Selection picks four Pool B teams for the playoffs and all the others are lumped in with the Pool C candidates.  Essentially you've got Pool B remainders + Pool C Contenders for 7 spots.

As Ralph indicated below, two of the Pool B teams below could finish undefeated -- that's as close as they get to an automatic bid.  Unless they are defending national champs, too. :)

Four more could finish with one loss by winning out -- W&J, Salisbury/Wesley, Huntingdon and Whitworth. 

Willamette also has one loss since the non-D3 games and UMHB result don't count in the committee's eyes.  But Willamette has to play Linfield and Whitworth.

Then you have the Salisbury/Wesley loser with two loses.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: ktroutvon on October 23, 2005, 05:50:13 pm
Thanks. 

It seems as though Pool C could end up being a little chaotic then.  Pool B schools seem to almost have an advantage in that they play less conference games and get more opportunities against schools from other conferences (assuming they win those games).
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 23, 2005, 05:54:15 pm
Ktroutvon:  Gordon is correct!  Bob Gregg is the first one that I recall talking about a "Pool B" team getting a "Pool C" bid.

The access ration that allocates the bids is quite equitable.

The NCAA has divided the number of Pool A conference members by the number of Pool A conferences (21) to get an access ratio.  The NCAA divides that number into the Pool B Conference members and true independents, as if it were one giant conference, and has determined that 4 bids is the correct number.

Everyone else is trying for the 7 remaining at large.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 23, 2005, 06:09:39 pm
Ktroutvon, welcome to D3football.com!

The next 3 weeks are when this really gets fun. :)

The B's are a source of aggravaton for some, but this year, the teams have done what they needed to do.  The extra playoff slots will alleiviate the perceived disparity between the last (7th) Pool A/C and the 4th Pool B bid.

The fact that the Northwest Conference (with 2 Stagg titles in the last decade) and the Pres AC (5-6 in post-season play) and Brockport (Independents 5-7 in Post-season play) are usual Pool B contenders makes them more "palatable" vis-a-vis an IBFC, MWC or NEFC team.  I think that the Pool B's this year will be respectable clubs.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: ktroutvon on October 23, 2005, 06:20:13 pm
I'm wondering where the independents fall into the Pool C consideration.  That Brockport-Wesley game makes it pretty confusing.

I assume this will be covered a lot over the next few weeks though. 
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: religion_major on October 23, 2005, 06:34:02 pm
Independents would fall to pool c if they fail to receive one of the four pool b bids.  I would say that Huntingdon has an outside shot.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 23, 2005, 06:40:00 pm
I think that the Brockport win really casts some doubt on Wesley.  I also think that Salisbury will defeat Wesley.  That would seal the Wolverines fate and make it cleasrer for everyone else.  There are too many one-loss teams in D3.

The ACFC is not recognized as a formal D3 conference as the NEFC and the IBC are.  That means that the Brockport Wesley game is not a formal "in-region" game, as the Depauw (Greencastle IN)- Millsaps (Jackson, MS)  is.  Neither is Dover to Brockport within the 200 mile radius.

We have discussed this before.  The ACFC provides a framework for indepedents on the Atlantic seaboard to schedule games, but their obtaining a Pool A will need to come under the aegis of an established conference, e.g., the SUNYAC, if Cortland, Brockport, Buffalo and maybe a Morrisville in 2011 want to go there.
 
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: ACMob on October 23, 2005, 07:03:58 pm
RT-- as much as I like Wesley, I think the Gulls will finish off the Wolverines this weekend for playoff consideration.  And as discussed before, The ACFC has lost a team(Buff St.) and likely will lose another!! :-\
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: AnotherJohnnie on October 24, 2005, 11:15:32 am
6) ACFC loser, especially if it is Wesley.

7)  Willamette/Whitworth--Face off on Nov 5th.  Lewis & Clark cancelation hurts!


I have to think that if Whitworth wins that they would be ahead of the ACFC loser.  Whit would have only 1 DIII loss and that was to Linfield.  Maybe they should be even higher on the list, but with schedule problem (not enough games), I am not sure.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 24, 2005, 03:17:57 pm
Johnnie, on the West Region Playoff Board, I posted a review of the Whitworth chances late last night.

I agree that Whitworth looks stronger, espeically if they can get some high QOWI scores from Redlans, LaVerne and UPS.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2005, 03:35:52 am
KMack, Bob Gregg:

If the runner-up from the Midwest Conference gets in as a Pool C, then the playoffs are too big at 32  . . .

Yeah, I don't know who suggested that. Definitely won't be this year, as any runner-up would have 2 losses, including St. Norbert's smashing vs. UW-W.

But I'd like to think the Pool system opens the door for teams from any conference to get in, and in the rare cases that there's a 10-0/9-0 AQ winner and a runner-up that lost to them by a field goal or last second TD ... well if they've proven they're just as good as said team, shouldn't they be about as playoff worthy? Now we have space for them.

And the teams from the so-called bum leagues sometimes represent in the playoffs (think 6-4 Aurora last year, 6-3 Redlands a couple years ago before the SCIAC really gained its respect)

That said, any conference whose teams are getting smoked in just about every non-conference game is never going to be a two-team league in any of my projections, so I do agree to a large extent.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2005, 03:41:50 am
Them both over some 9-1 runner-up like St. Norbert or (can't believe I'm saying this) Washington & Lee, I guess.

Should be really interesting.

Guess you mean that.

Would you buy that I was just looking for some random placeholders and not really suggesting those particular schools?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 04, 2005, 11:37:05 am
Pool B watch with two weeks to play (I would have "tabled" this if I had any clue how to do that):



Linfield   7-0   @ Willamette (4-3)
Thiel   8-0   Buffalo State (3-4)   @ Carnegie-Mellon (4-4)
Wesley   8-1   @ Chowan (D-II)   
W&J   8-1   @ Thomas More (5-3)   
Whitworth 4-2   Willamette (4-3)   @ Pacific Lutheran (2-5)
Salisbury   6-2   Widener (6-2)   @ Frostburg State (5-3)
Huntingdon 6-1   @ Westminster, MO (5-4)   Maryville (1-7)
Willamette 4-3   @ Whitworth (4-2)   Linfield (7-0)
         
Games outside D-III, not considered by NCAA

1 Whitworth loss (Eastern Oregon)
2 Willamette losses (Western Oregon, Azusa Pacific)
1 Willamette win (Southern Oregon)
Wesley’s game 11/5 (Chowan)
1 Wesley win (Seton Hill)
2 Linfield wins (Western Oregon, Southern Oregon)
1 Salisbury win (St. Peter’s)
1 Huntingdon win (SW Assemblies of God)
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2005, 09:04:25 pm
Willamette 40 Whitworth 34.  Willamette is 4-0 in the West Region and plays Linfield next Saturday!  Does even a 4-1 record earn a Pool B bid?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: religion_major on November 05, 2005, 09:22:45 pm
I think Willamette will get punished for not playing enough d3 games this year.  That is not entirely their fault, but they must bear Linfield to even be considered this year.  You could make a case at 7-2 with a 4-1 regional record, but not at 4-2 with a 4-1 regional record.  Just my two cents...
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2005, 10:45:03 pm
Pool B UPDATE with ONE Week Remaining  (I would have "tabled" this if I had any clue how to do that):



Linfield   7-0   @ Willamette (5-3)
Thiel   9-0    @ Carnegie-Mellon (5-4)
Wesley   9-1
Wash&Jeff   9-1   
Huntingdon 7-1   Maryville (2-7)
Willamette 5-3   Linfield (7-0)
Whitworth 4-3   @ Pacific Lutheran (3-5)
Salisbury   6-3   @ Frostburg State (6-3)
         
Games outside D-III, not considered by NCAA

1 Whitworth loss (Eastern Oregon)
2 Willamette losses (Western Oregon, Azusa Pacific)
1 Willamette win (Southern Oregon)
2 Wesley wins (Seton Hill, Chowan)
2 Linfield wins (Western Oregon, Southern Oregon)
1 Salisbury win (St. Peter’s)
1 Huntingdon win (SW Assemblies of God)
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Foss on November 05, 2005, 10:57:27 pm
Willamette would be 4-2 in D3 if they lose to Linfield (4-1 in region), w/ losses to the #1 and soon to be #4 (UMHB) team in the country. They would be 1-2 against D2/NAIA schools. I'm not saying if Willamette should or should not get in, but I will say one of the most important criteria is supposed to be in region D3 games, and the fact is their only loss would be against the defending national champs and #1 team in the country. I won't get into why they haven't played more D3 games, I'll just say it hasn't been by their own chosing. This could be a blatant example of a team not getting into the playoffs because many of the teams around them would not play them, and therefore they never had an opportunity to play more in region D3 games. That would be pretty sad, and I'm not even a Willamette fan.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2005, 11:08:28 pm
Bob, thanks for updating Pool B!

IN-region record in parentheses and In-region games designated with *

Linfield   7-0 (5-0)   @ Willamette* (5-3)
Thiel   9-0  (9-0)  @ Carnegie-Mellon* (5-4)
Wesley   9-1 (5-0)
Wash&Jeff   9-1 (7-1)  
Huntingdon 7-1 (4-1)  Maryville* (2-7)
Willamette 5-3 (4-0)  Linfield* (7-0)

------------------------------------------------------------
Whitworth 4-3  (4-2) at Pacific Lutheran* (3-5)
Salisbury   6-3  (2-2)  @ Frostburg State* (6-3)

I think that 2-loss teams will not get even a Pool C bid. :)

And Foss, the Willamette loss to UMHB does not count in the primary criteria.  IMHO, if Willamette wins, they get a bid.  If they don't, then they have to wait deep in Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Foss on November 05, 2005, 11:19:47 pm
Ralph, that's what I'm saying. It's the in region games that are supposed to count the most, and they would be 4-1 there. Hard to shut out a team like that. At the same time, has a 4 total loss team (regardless of how many were out of region/non-D3) ever made it into the postseason? Anyone?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2005, 11:23:59 pm
Foss, I remember that CNU was 5-3 in their first year, 2001, and lost to Widener in the first round and then 6-4 in 2002 with losses to playoff teams, Salisbury, Rowan and Bridgewater VA, before getting the Dixie IAC Pool A bid at 5-1 in conference, 6-3 in-region.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Foss on November 05, 2005, 11:37:08 pm
Ralph, interesting. So a 4 loss team has gotten in. Maybe Willamette still has a shot at the worst overall record, thanks in part, to Lewis and Clark dropping them (5-4)?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 05, 2005, 11:37:40 pm
Foss,

Perhaps more to the point: has a team with only 4 WINS in region ever been selected?
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Foss on November 05, 2005, 11:39:16 pm
Ralph, get to work my man! Mr. Ypsi asks an intriguing question.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: smedindy on November 05, 2005, 11:42:38 pm
I think Willamette MUST win. Then they'd knock out W & J.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2005, 11:50:27 pm
Salisbury went 6-0 in-region in 2004.  I cannot think of any other teams that are isolated in their region to have only 4 in-region games.  It would have to be a Pool B team, and the Pool B teams that make up the Pres AC, the Empire 8 and the LL early in the decade were playing more in-region games.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: desertcat1 on November 06, 2005, 09:20:41 pm
Ralph , Willamette was 5-1 last year with  L& C..  7-3 over all.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 06, 2005, 10:05:37 pm
Last year, the Pres AC did not have 2 candidates in Pool B.  IMHO, that is the difference this year for Willamette.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: desertcat1 on November 07, 2005, 11:26:40 am
Last year, the Pres AC did not have 2 candidates in Pool B.  IMHO, that is the difference this year for Willamette.

Ralph,
I not think Willamette should get in at all this year, I was just giving you the numbers. ;)

Wait until sat and you will see why ;D
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 12, 2005, 10:04:24 pm
...I (do) not think Willamette should get in at all this year...

Linfield OBVIOUSLY agrees with you desertcat1.

At the half, Linfield 35, Willamette 0
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 12, 2005, 10:06:20 pm
Pool B UPDATE:

IN-region record in parentheses and In-region games designated with *

Linfield   7-0 (5-0)   CRUSHING @ Willamette* (5-3)
Thiel   10-0  (10-0)  3OT win @ Carnegie-Mellon* (5-4)
Wesley   9-1 (5-0)  IDLE
Wash&Jeff   9-1 (7-1)    IDLE


Huntingdon 7-2 (4-2)  LOST TO Maryville* (2-7)
Willamette 5-3 (4-0)  LOSING to Linfield* (7-0)

------------------------------------------------------------
Whitworth 5-3  (5-2) WON at Pacific Lutheran* (3-5)
Salisbury   6-3  (2-2)  @ Frostburg State* (6-3)

I think the "B"s are FOUR and there ain't no more!
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 12, 2005, 11:25:12 pm
What a shame for Huntingdon.  Had everything where they wanted it late but the game-winning pass went thru the hands of the receiver and was intercepted. 
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: plulute2clu on November 12, 2005, 11:57:59 pm
What about Salisbury or Washington U?  I'm curious why they aren't in this conversation...primarily Salisbury...is it the two loses?  Becasue their QOW is fairly high.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 13, 2005, 12:06:25 am
Salisbury is 6-3 heading into tonight's game at Frostburg State.  And 1 of those wins was outside D-III.

Washington University finished regular season today at 6-4.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 13, 2005, 11:06:47 am
Well, No "C" for the "B"s this year...

As strong as the "B"s looked, in the end, they looked like the "B"s have regularly looked.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 19, 2005, 03:45:31 pm
Bob, It looks like 3 out of 4 B's are continuing after today.  Not that bumbly! ;)

Sorry about the 4th.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 21, 2005, 02:59:48 pm
Bob, It looks like 3 out of 4 B's are continuing after today.  Not that bumbly! ;)

Sorry about the 4th.
Me too!
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: K-Mack on November 21, 2005, 10:57:53 pm
Not a bad bunch of B representatives though. Thiel could win next week ... or Bridgewater could eliminate the PAC entirely.

Also, to re-answer someone's question back there about four-loss playoff teams, in addition to CNU, Aurora was 6-4 last season and in the playoffs, as the IBFC's Pool A squad ... and they took 10-0 Wooster to the wire. I think it was 27-27 with five minutes left and the final was 41-34.

FWIW.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: ThielFan on November 22, 2005, 08:15:17 am
Not a bad bunch of B representatives though. Thiel could win next week ... or Bridgewater could eliminate the PAC entirely.

Yes... Thiel must fight hard to keep Bridgewater from single-handedly eliminating the PAC!!!
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: religion_major on November 22, 2005, 08:25:18 am
Not a bad bunch of B representatives though. Thiel could win next week ... or Bridgewater could eliminate the PAC entirely.

Yes... Thiel must fight hard to keep Bridgewater from single-handedly eliminating the PAC!!!

BC has a 2-1 playoff record aginst the PAC (1-1 in PA).  All of those games aginst W&J were close, and I expect this one to be no different.
Title: Re: Pool B--2005
Post by: Bob.Gregg on December 12, 2005, 03:57:40 pm
Only 11 months until Selection Sunday, 2006, the day (finally) that a "B" gets a "C"......
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 20, 2006, 01:41:41 pm
More consolidation among the ranks of Pool B!

See the front page (http://www.d3football.com/)!

The SLIAC is accepting the UMAC affiliates!  I am happy for those student-athletes.

The SLAIC is scheduled to become Pool A in 2010.  There goes a Pool B bid, and I think that the extra incremental increase in the numerator helps with a fraction of a Pool C bid in the 2010 season.
Title: Re: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 20, 2006, 09:12:48 pm
With the announcement that the SLIAC is resuming football and accepting the affiliation of the UMAC schools, let's look at the changes that have occurred since this was posted last October.  A lot of stuff has happened.  (Corrections are appreciated.)

Whither Pool B--2011--Second look June 2006

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 6+ years.  At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Pool B Remain.  Four to Pool A.

UAA (U Chicago and CWRU) has announced their joint scheduling arrangement with the NCAC, but this does not alter the Pool B status of the UAA.

The "UMAC 4" affiliates include:

Rockford from the Northern Illinois-Iowa Conference which has announced its merger with the Lake Michigan Conference and will play by 2008 in the newly created Northern Athletics Conference (NAthCon) in Fall 2008 and have the Pool A by Fall 2010.  I have not seen to which Evaluation Region the NAthCon will be assigned.

Blackburn, Principia and Westminster MO (SLAIC) begin playing in the reconstituted SLIAC in Fall 2008 and should have the Pool A in 2010.  More about this in the West Region discussion.

With the IBC disbanding in the Lake Michigan-NIIC merger, the new conference has taken the name Northern Athletics Conference (NAthcon).  The NAthCon will have 8 football-playing members: Aurora, Benedictine, Concordia IL, Concordia WI and Lakeland from the IBFC.  Maranatha Baptist and Rockford are playing in the current UMAC.  Finally, Wisconsin Lutheran is currently a MIAA affiliate.

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses by 2011.  CCIW (8 ). HCAC (8 with RHIT joining), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7 with Tri-State on board and Wisconsin Lutheran returning to the NAthCon in 2008), and NAthCon (8 ).


By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region. 

The remaining North Region Pool B schools are the UAA's UChicago and CWRU.  I project a total of 53 schools in the North Evaluation Region.

East Region:  6 Pool B Teams Remain. Two to Pool A.

Buffalo State leaves the ACFC for the NJAC next year.
Plymouth St moves to the NEFC which also adds Coast Guard.

SUNY-Maritime begins playing a varsity schedule in 2006 and Provisional SUNY-Morrisville scheduled to be full member in Fall 2010.  Both are investigating conference affiliations.

Becker, Husson and Mount Ida were members of the North Atlantic Conference (NAC) in 2005-06.  Mount Ida has announced its departure to the GNAC.  Maine Maritime from the New England FC Bogan is also a member of the NAC.  Since only 4 core members are required for a conference to sponsor a sport (cf. Liberty League), an aggressive NAC could have added 3 more affiliates by Fall 2009 and be Pool A by Fall 2011.  This tactic is no longer possible, until another NAC school adds football.

The SUNY might have 4 core members by Fall 2011, Cortland, Buffalo, Brockport  and a Morrisville.  This might be at the expense of the NJAC, but I do not anticipate any moves in the next few years creating more Pool B schools.  Were I the NJAC, I would invite Brockport and Morrisville tomorrow.  Some of the NJAC members are having trouble filling 10-game schedules as it is.

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in parentheses. Empire 8 (7), Liberty League (8 with migration of the Coast Guard to the NEFC but the addition of Susquehanna from the MAC), MAC (8 after losing Susquehanna, to the LL and Moravian and Juniata to the Centennial Conference), NJAC (8 with migration of Buffalo State from the ACFC) and NEFC (16 with the addition of Plymouth St and Coast Guard).  The East Region is still very unstable compared to the changes in the West and the North Regions.


By 2011, I anticipate 5 Pool A conferences with 47 members in the East Region.

The remaining 6 East Region Pool B teams: Brockport St, SUNY Maritime, SUNY Morrisville, Becker, Husson and Mount Ida.  I project a total of 53 schools in the East Evaluation Region.
Title: Re: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 20, 2006, 09:41:36 pm
West Region: 2 Remain. Ten to Pool A.

Northwest Conference--Lewis & Clark appears to have re-committed to football and to the Northwest Conference.  (The NWC is headed for Pool A status with the affiliation of Menlo.  (Also, there have been rumors of George Fox and Pacific OR adding football.)  Assuming that L&C stays on course with its football program,  the Northwest Conference will be Pool A in Fall 2008.

Colorado College has been accepted into the SCAC.

The Upper Midwest AC is an old NAIA conference that has all of its members as either full or provisional.  The UMAC football teams have been accepted as SLIAC affiliates (D3football.com front page--Jun 20, 2006).  (Current UMAC affiliate (non-D3) Trinity Bible College was not invited.) By 2009, the UMAC will have 4 full football-playing members (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris and Northwestern WI) that will form the Northern Division plus Principia.  (Why Principia from just north of St Louis went to the northern division and not Eureka IL or Westminster MO is beyond me.)  The Southern Division will include football-playing SLIAC members Blackburn, Greenville, MacMurray, Westminster MO and new prospect Eureka which is coming from the NIIC.

This new 10-member SLIAC will likely have Pool A status by 2010.  As a result, all of these Pool B's will move to Pool A.  (For this discussion, I have considered the SLIAC as a West Region Conference and the NAthCon a North Region Conference.  (The NCAA might reverse that assignment.  You know, put the Northern Athletics Conference in the West Region,  ;) :D ) and vice versa.)

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference (7), SCIAC (7), SLIAC (10), WIAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 60 members in the West Region.

The remaining two West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester.  (Two others may be Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years, and maybe Doane NE, which has begun the exploratory phase of joining D3 are also in the region.)  I project a total of 62 schools in the West Evaulation Region.
Title: Re: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 20, 2006, 09:55:34 pm
South Region:  7 Remain. Eight to Pool A.

The Presidents AC has begun to add football-playing schools.  Thomas More joined last spring.  St Vincent's announced it is adding football, going thru the NCAA Provisional status and joining the Pres AC.  Likewise for Geneva which will begin the provisional status in 2007-08.  They can be a full member in 2011.  The Pres AC will have 9 teams by 2011, seven of whom are current Pool B's.

Huntingdon has finished in its third year and LaGrange will start next year.  Let's assume that they do not find a Pool A conference by 2011, but rather fill out the schedules of the SCAC, ASC and USAC members.

UAA members Wash St Louis and Carnegie Mellon are likely to remain in Pool B.  They have a contract to fill their schedules with NCAC opponents.

The ACFC remains vulnerable.  Wesley is close to the NJAC.  Frostburg and Salisbury may have trouble finding a schedule if the conferences on the seaboard start expanding to the exclusion of non-conference schedules.  Neither fate, Pool A or Pool B would surprise me concerning these schools.  Brockport is "in the same boat", and the NCAA bylaws will not permit the ACFC to move to Pool A status as the IBC and NEFC are.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9 with the loss of Austin College to the SCAC), Centennial (9 with addition of Juniata and Moravian from the MAC in 2007), ODAC (7), Presidents AC (9), SCAC (9 with AC replacing RHIT and the addition of West Region Independent Colorado College in 2007 and Birmingham Southern, which should complete provisional status by fall 2011), and USAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the South Region.

The seven remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Huntingdon, LaGrange, Wesley, Frostburg St and Salisbury.  I project a total of 58 schools in the South Evaluation Region.
Title: Re: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 20, 2006, 10:18:40 pm
According to the 2005 Handbook rules, in 2011 the 24 Pool A conferences comprised of 209 schools will give an access ratio of 1:8.71.

Fifteen Pool B schools divided by the 8.71 access ratio gives 1.722 bids, which is truncated to 1 Pool B bid.  This leaves 7 Pool C bids in 2011.

Pool B will still have plenty of bids between now and 2011.

The conferences moving to Pool A by year include:

2006-- (no significant changes from 2005; 4 bids)
2007-- the 7-member Presidents AC.  (Maybe only 3 Pool B bids)
2008-- the 7-member Northwest Conference.  Pool B picks up the 8 members of the IBFC as that Pool A conference is disbanded. (Maybe only 3 Pool B bids).
2010-- the SLIAC and its 10 members move from Pool B to Pool A/C.
2010-- the Northern Athletics Conference will move its 8 members to Pool A.  These moves impact the access ratio, in addition to the new members that have completed provisional status.  There may be only 2 or 1 Pool B bid in 2010.
2011-- I project only 1 Pool B bid, as provisional members such as Saint Vincent and Geneva in the Pres AC, the SLIAC/UMAC provisionals and BSC in the SCAC complete the process and are counted as Pool A members.

If the UAA members do not earn a bid in the 2008 or 2009 window, then I seriously wonder if the UAA will earn a Pool B bid until the Pools system is redefined.  The UAA may benefit from the strong Pool B schools such as Brockport St, Salisbury, Wesley or even Huntingdon or LaGrange moving into a conference.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AUPepBand on June 22, 2006, 02:12:12 am
I applaud you for attempting to sort all of this out. I don't even begin to understand it all. It's a shame the Alfred Saxons ended up 2005 in that wading pool just outside the door to the NCAA Playoffs. 'Tis a shame to be left to wade when you were looking forward to swimming.....but no worries, Kickoff 2006 is coming soon!
...On Saxon Warriors, o'er every adversity!


Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 02, 2006, 10:47:04 pm
The biggest Pool B win that I saw was Salisbury's South Region win over W&J.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 21, 2006, 07:56:36 pm
D3 football Handbook came out today.

21 Pool A bids
4 Pool B bids
7 Pool C bids.

javascript:goToURL('http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2006/2006_d3_football_handbook.pdf');

(That link may not work for everyone. :-\)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 22, 2006, 01:40:35 am
Ralph,
 you're a machine. Fine work.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 24, 2006, 11:25:25 pm
Wesley at Huntingdon this week may be the GOTW for Pool B.

W&J is off.

Whitworth is hosting Azusa Pacific.
Willamette at Linfield is not quite as significant on a national level this year.

Brockport must catch an Ithaca Bomber team that is smarting from the loss to SJF.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2006, 07:50:24 pm
October 1st!  The playoffs start next month!

Five weeks completed, and we are already getting some separation in Pool B.

The Handbook says that we shall have 4 Pool B bids.

These are my guesses now.  (Overall Record and In-Region record)

1)  Wesley --  (4-0/3-0) South Region Champion last year.  Key wins over Waynesburg and Huntingdon.  Still has the remainder ACFC play and can finish with a South Region record of 5-0.
2)  Whitworth -- (4-0/3-0) Nice win over UW-Stout.  Seems to be the front runner in the NWC.  Full NWC schedule to play.  Can finish West Region at 9-0.
3)  W&J --  (3-1/2-1)  Key loss to Salisbury, but W&J may run the Pres AC to give a South Region record of 8-1.
4)  Linfield -- (1-2/1-1)  Plays only 7 in-region games.  Key loss was (In-Region) to HSU.  Can run the NWC table and get a bid, and have a West Region record of 6-1.  Otherwise on the bubble at 5-2 with a loss to Whitworth.  Had Linfield won the HSU game, then they would have had a key in-region win!  Props to Linfield for scheduling HSU.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained!  "Leave no doubt!  Win them all!"

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bubble teams;

T5)  Thiel (3-2/2-1)  Needs to run the Pres AC table to earn a Pool B bid. Key loss to Alfred.  Would have greatly helped their chances by a win over Alfred! Can run the Pres AC table (including W&J and Waynesburg) to finish South Region at 7-1. 
T5)  Carnegie Mellon (http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?year=2006&school=Carnegie+Mellon) (5-0/4-0)  A tip of the hat to CWRU70 who caught my oversight!  The last UAA team to get a Pool B was Washington MO back in 1999.  
7)  Huntingdon (3-2/3-1)  Loss to Wesley may not hurt too badly.  Loss to Ithaca is non-region.  Must defeat Trinity at home this weekend and then win the other 2 South Region Games (Thomas More and LaGrange) to finish with a South Region record of 6-1.  We are going on won-loss percentages now!  Probably needs only one bid going to the NWC and Pres AC teams to make it in.
8 )  Chapman (2-1/2-1)  Can Chapman "run the SCIAC" (http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?school=Chapman&year=2006) and finish with a West Region record of 8-1?  Key loss?  Menlo in the first game.  Real dark horse here.
9)  Rockford (4-1/4-0)  What if Rockford defeated Principia, Blackburn and Colorado College to finish 7-0 in-Region?  Would they have the "paper criteria" to earn a Pool B?  For competeness sake, I will keep them on the radar.  Wow!  When was the last time that Colorado College was in a "meaningful" (Pool B) game?  (Colorado College goes to the SCAC next year.)

Off the bubble--

Brockport State (2-2/0-2)  Games with Wesley, Salisbury, Frostburg and NNA do not count as in-region.  Morrisville State is first year provisional so that game doesn't count towards "in-region" until 2008.  Has tough games against SJF and Springfield left.

Salisbury (2-3/1-2)  Has tough game with Wesley, plus Widener and Frostburg left.  Probably cannot get a high enough in-region winning percentage

Waynesburg (2-3/2-3)  Can run the Pres AC, get the Rings (as Pres AC Champions at 6-0), but will miss the playoffs at 7-3 In-Region.  Key losses for Pool B: Wesley, Wooster, Shenandoah.  They have to be looking forward to Pool A!


This should be the last season for the Presidents AC to participate in Pool B.  The conference may be reassigned to Pool A for all sports in August 2007.  The Northwest Conference should be a Pool A football conference in 2008.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 01, 2006, 08:12:57 pm
Ralph -Am I missing the reason you do not mention 5-0/4-0 Carnegie Mellon?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2006, 09:10:19 pm
Ralph -Am I missing the reason you do not mention 5-0/4-0 Carnegie Mellon?

Ooooohhhh!  My Bad!  :-\ Except that the last UAA team to get a Pool B bid was back in the 20th Century (http://www.d3football.com/previous_info.php?school=Washington+U.&year=1999)!  :)

Wow!  It might happen! Run the UAA (http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?year=2006&school=Carnegie+Mellon) and then don't slip up against Bethany or especially Thiel (which still might have Pool B aspirations themselves).

I will slot Carnegie Mellon in a tie for 5th with Thiel.

Thanks for catching that! ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 01, 2006, 09:34:02 pm
The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: religion_major on October 01, 2006, 10:56:38 pm
The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.

Is CMU South region?  I was wondering for later on in the year when we start thinking about brackets.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2006, 11:06:42 pm
The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.

Is CMU South region?  I was wondering for later on in the year when we start thinking about brackets.
Yes, the Handbook lists CMU in the South Region. 

With respect to the brackets, the handbook makes a big deal about "geographic proximity".  So, CMU could be sent anywhere in a 500 mile radius.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: religion_major on October 02, 2006, 02:21:50 pm
The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.

Is CMU South region?  I was wondering for later on in the year when we start thinking about brackets.
Yes, the Handbook lists CMU in the South Region. 

With respect to the brackets, the handbook makes a big deal about "geographic proximity".  So, CMU could be sent anywhere in a 500 mile radius.

Since CMU is in Pittsburg, I was figuring that they would get to open up either at Bridgewater or Mount Union if they got in.  Both would be within the 500 mile radius, but it would depend on which bracket the committee thought needed another team in it.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2006, 02:29:34 pm
The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.

Is CMU South region?  I was wondering for later on in the year when we start thinking about brackets.
Yes, the Handbook lists CMU in the South Region. 

With respect to the brackets, the handbook makes a big deal about "geographic proximity".  So, CMU could be sent anywhere in a 500 mile radius.

Since CMU is in Pittsburg, I was figuring that they would get to open up either at Bridgewater or Mount Union if they got in.  Both would be within the 500 mile radius, but it would depend on which bracket the committee thought needed another team in it.

I guess we will have to wait until the bids are designated.  They could even be used in the "East Region".  The North Region has 6 Pool A bids (CCIW, HCAC, IBC, MIAA, NCAC and OAC), so maybe a couple of North Region Pool C bids will push a CMU to the East or to the South.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: religion_major on October 02, 2006, 05:19:16 pm
The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.

Is CMU South region?  I was wondering for later on in the year when we start thinking about brackets.
Yes, the Handbook lists CMU in the South Region. 

With respect to the brackets, the handbook makes a big deal about "geographic proximity".  So, CMU could be sent anywhere in a 500 mile radius.

Since CMU is in Pittsburg, I was figuring that they would get to open up either at Bridgewater or Mount Union if they got in.  Both would be within the 500 mile radius, but it would depend on which bracket the committee thought needed another team in it.

I guess we will have to wait until the bids are designated.  They could even be used in the "East Region".  The North Region has 6 Pool A bids (CCIW, HCAC, IBC, MIAA, NCAC and OAC), so maybe a couple of North Region Pool C bids will push a CMU to the East or to the South.

The South Region has 5 pool A's (ODAC, USASC, CC, SCAC and ASC) as well as two (maybe three) pool B's in the winners of the PAC and ACFC.  I don't believe that any more than one pool C will come from the South this year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 04, 2006, 11:35:50 pm
I've got a funny feeling Linfield will beat Whitworth and both will make the playoffs. I also think Cal Lutheran will have a shot at getting in this year (scheduling Willamette instead of whoever) with one loss (assuming Oxy) or vice versa, if CLU runs it and Oxy is the 1-loss team.

So we could see SCIAC runner-up at NWC champ and NWC runner-up at SCIAC champ, ticking the NCAA off to no end with the double flights.

Even in a three-team scenario, it may open up the West for a Iowa team or a Wisc. team to go out that way.

I just find that interesting and slightly Pool B related.

I like Carnegie Mellon's chances of getting in, definitely if they are unbeaten, probably with one loss. Wash U. made it in the 28-team days.

I don't like the looks of things for the W&J/Thiel loser.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 07, 2006, 10:14:15 pm
These are my guesses now.  Much separation this weekend.  (Overall Record and In-Region record)

1)  Wesley --  (5-0/4-0)   Key wins over Waynesburg and Huntingdon.  Still has the remainder ACFC play and can finish with a South Region record of 5-0.

2)  Whitworth -- (5-0/4-0)  Another win today.  Has a nice win over Stout. Seems to be the front runner in the NWC.  Full NWC schedule to play.  Can finish West Region at 9-0.

3)  W&J --  (4-1/3-1)  Key loss to Salisbury, but key win over Thiel clears the way for W&J to run the Pres AC to give a South Region record of 8-1.  Waynesburg is still conference spoiler.

4)  Linfield -- (2-2/2-1)  Plays only 7 in-region games.  Key loss was (In-Region) to HSU.  Can run the NWC table and get a bid, and have a West Region record of 6-1.  Otherwise on the bubble at 5-2 with a loss to Whitworth.  Had Linfield won the HSU game, then they would have had a key in-region win!  Props to Linfield for scheduling HSU.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained!  "Leave no doubt!  Win them all!"

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bubble teams;

 
5)  Carnegie Mellon (5-0/4-0)  A tip of the hat to CWRU70 who caught my oversight!  The last UAA team to get a Pool B was Washington MO back in 1999. 

6)  Chapman (2-1/2-1)  Can Chapman "run the SCIAC" and finish with a West Region record of 8-1?  Key loss?  Menlo in the first game.  Real dark horse here.  Playing C-M-S late Saturday tonight.

7)  Rockford (5-1/5-0)  What if Rockford defeated Principia, Blackburn and Colorado College to finish 7-0 in-Region?  Would they have the "paper criteria" to earn a Pool B?  For competeness sake, I will keep them on the radar.  Wow!  When was the last time that Colorado College was in a "meaningful" (Pool B) game?  (Colorado College goes to the SCAC next year.)

Off the bubble---

Huntingdon (3-3/3-2)  Losses to Wesley and Trinity do hurt, badly.  Solid football program working its way to annual credibility.  Now it needs to find enough South Region opponents (or an affiliation or full membership in a Conference.)

Thiel (3-3/2-2) -- Loss to W&J moves them off the bubble.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 09, 2006, 10:11:43 am
With Champman's loss to C-M-S, it's now six teams playing for four spots:


Wesley, Whitworth, W&J, Linfield, Carnegie-Mellon and Rockford.

Imagine this scenario:

Wesley, W&J, CMU and Rockford win out.
Linfield beats Whitworth and they both win the rest....

Four seats, six teams, all with solid credentials......

Let's see if these six can pull this off...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2006, 10:23:00 am
With Champman's loss to C-M-S, it's now six teams playing for four spots:


Wesley, Whitworth, W&J, Linfield, Carnegie-Mellon and Rockford.

Imagine this scenario:

Wesley, W&J, CMU and Rockford win out.
Linfield beats Whitworth and they both win the rest....

Four seats, six teams, all with solid credentials......

Let's see if these six can pull this off...

Bob, thanks for finding the Chapman score.  I had not seen it by 4pm CDT on Sunday! :-\

Congratulations to the Presidents for Saturday's win!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 09, 2006, 11:08:59 am
Ralph, does it help a schools case if they have more in region wins?  Say one is 5-0 and another is 7-0.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 09, 2006, 03:38:16 pm
Here's what's left:

1)  Wesley (5-0/4-0) 
Newport News (3-2)
Brockport State (2-3)
@ Salisbury (2-3)
Chowan (0-5)
Morrisville State (1-5)

2)  Whitworth (5-0/4-0)  
Lewis & Clark (0-4)
@ Menlo (3-2)
Willamette (1-4)
@ Linfield (2-2)
Puget Sound (3-2)

3)  Washington & Jefferson (4-1/3-1)
Westminster (1-4)
Grove City (1-4)
Waynesburg (2-3)
Thomas More (3-2)
@ Bethany (3-2)

4)  Linfield (2-2, 2-1) 
Southern Oregon (2-3 NAIA)
@ Pacific Lutheran (1-4)
Menlo (3-2)
Whitworth (5-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-4)

5)  Carnegie-Mellon (5-0/4-0)
@ Case Western Reserve (3-2)
Chicago (2-2)
@ Washington (MO) (3-3)
Bethany (3-2)
@ Thiel (3-3)

6)  Rockford (5-1/5-0)
@ Blackburn (2-4)
@ Martin Luther (1-4)
off
@ Colorado College (3-2)
off
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2006, 04:18:41 pm
Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (5-0/4-0) 
Newport News (3-2)
Brockport State (2-3)
@ Salisbury (2-3)
Chowan (0-5)
Morrisville State (1-5)

2)  Whitworth (5-0/4-0)  
Lewis & Clark (0-4)
@ Menlo (3-2)
Willamette (1-4)
@ Linfield (2-2)
Puget Sound (3-2)


3)  Washington & Jefferson (4-1/3-1)
Westminster (1-4)
Grove City (1-4)
Waynesburg (2-3)
Thomas More (3-2)
@ Bethany (3-2)


4)  Linfield (2-2, 2-1) 
Southern Oregon (2-3 NAIA)
@ Pacific Lutheran (1-4)
Menlo (3-2)
Whitworth (5-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-4)


5)  Carnegie-Mellon (5-0/4-0)
@ Case Western Reserve (3-2)
Chicago (2-2)
@ Washington (MO) (3-3)
Bethany (3-2)
@ Thiel (3-3)


6)  Rockford (5-1/5-0)
@ Blackburn (2-4)
@ Martin Luther (1-4)
off
@ Colorado College (3-2)
off
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2006, 04:58:15 pm
Ralph, does it help a schools case if they have more in region wins?  Say one is 5-0 and another is 7-0.

Bill, the Handbook only mentions win-loss percentage against Regional opponents.  1.000 is 1.000, of course, but every extra win for the "non-undefeated" teams helps with that percentage!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 09, 2006, 07:21:01 pm
In the 1-6 above, I think they're ranked properly as well.

If Linfield beats Whitworth, that's bad news for Carnegie Mellon, who could still get in anyway if they're unbeaten. But they have some games left to win, not the least of which is the final week game against Thiel. I really don't know what Rockford's chances would be, but undefeated is their best bet. Also, if Pool C runners-up are not that impressive, extra Pool B teams could be in good shape.

Two-loss teams are definitely not out of it. I wonder if Linfield would make it with a close loss to Whitworth.

Doesn't look like W&J or Whitworth/Linfield winner should lose again.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: religion_major on October 09, 2006, 07:53:52 pm
Here's what's left:

1)  Wesley (5-0/4-0) 
Newport News (3-2)
Brockport State (2-3)
@ Salisbury (2-3)
Chowan (0-5)
Morrisville State (1-5)

2)  Whitworth (5-0/4-0)  
Lewis & Clark (0-4)
@ Menlo (3-2)
Willamette (1-4)
@ Linfield (2-2)
Puget Sound (3-2)

3)  Washington & Jefferson (4-1/3-1)
Westminster (1-4)
Grove City (1-4)
Waynesburg (2-3)
Thomas More (3-2)
@ Bethany (3-2)

4)  Linfield (2-2, 2-1) 
Southern Oregon (2-3 NAIA)
@ Pacific Lutheran (1-4)
Menlo (3-2)
Whitworth (5-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-4)

5)  Carnegie-Mellon (5-0/4-0)
@ Case Western Reserve (3-2)
Chicago (2-2)
@ Washington (MO) (3-3)
Bethany (3-2)
@ Thiel (3-3)

6)  Rockford (5-1/5-0)
@ Blackburn (2-4)
@ Martin Luther (1-4)
off
@ Colorado College (3-2)
off

I really think that if CMU wins out Linfield must beat Whitworth to get the fourth pool B.  A team win two d3 losses let alone two in region losses will not get in over top of a 10-0 team no matter what the schedules or the reputation of the porgram is.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 09, 2006, 07:57:43 pm
Alright, major, run this scenario for me...

Linfield wins out, Whitworth wins all but Linfield.

Wesley wins out, W&J wins out, CMU wins out (including win over Thiel).

Is THIS the scenario that gives a "B" a "C"?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 09, 2006, 08:09:08 pm
I really think that if CMU wins out Linfield must beat Whitworth to get in.  A team win two d3 losses let alone two in region losses will not get in over top of a 10-0 team no matter what the schedules or the reputation of the porgram is.

I tend to agree, but it's not set in stone. If Linfield's losses are to unbeaten Whitworth and one-loss Hardin-Simmons, that may compare favorably to a 1-loss team with a weaker schedule/SOS.

Also, it depends if the Pool C picture gets ugly, in which case two losses might not eliminate the hopes of a Pool B team.

Alright, major, run this scenario for me...

Linfield wins out, Whitworth wins all but Linfield.

Wesley wins out, W&J wins out, CMU wins out (including win over Thiel).

Is THIS the scenario that gives a "B" a "C"?

That would the one I can envision. That would be two unbeatens (Wesley and CMU) and three one-loss teams, Linfield to HSU, Whitworth to Linfield and W&J to Salisbury.

It all depends on the worthiness of the other teams competing for that last Pool B/C slot and how the SOS, in-region record and other factors match up.

Anecdotally speaking, unbeaten teams get in. One-loss teams are probably an 85% bet to get in, 95% if your one loss is not a blowout. Two-loss teams are at the mercy of the rest of the field, i.e. they need some help, but at that point it helps to have played a strong schedule and not have a fluke loss to a 5-5 team on there.

Coe could win most of the rest of its games, with a split against Wartburg and Central, and have the Loras loss come back to bite them there, for instance.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 15, 2006, 02:51:16 pm
All 6 teams on Bob Gregg's list won on Saturday.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 15, 2006, 05:57:13 pm
Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (6-0/4-0) 
Brockport State (2-4)
@ Salisbury (3-3)
Chowan (0-6)
Morrisville State (1-6)

2)  Whitworth (6-0/5-0)  
@ Menlo (3-3)
Willamette (1-5)
@ Linfield (3-2)
Puget Sound (4-2)


3)  Washington & Jefferson (5-1/4-1)
Grove City (1-5)
Waynesburg (3-3)
Thomas More (4-2)
@ Bethany (3-3)


4)  Linfield (3-2, 2-1) 
@ Pacific Lutheran (2-4)
Menlo (3-3)
Whitworth (6-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-5)


5)  Carnegie-Mellon (6-0/5-0)
Chicago (2-3)
@ Washington (MO) (4-3)
Bethany (3-3)
@ Thiel (4-3)


6)  Rockford (6-1/6-0)
@ Martin Luther (1-5)
off
@ Colorado College (3-3)
off

For information only (I don't believe these two are even under consideration at this point):

?? Huntingdon (4-3/3-2)
@ Thomas More (4-2)
LaGrange (0-7)
@ SW Assemblies of God (1-5 NAIA)

?? Thiel (4-3/3-2)
Waynesburg (3-3)
Westminster (1-5)
Carnegie-Mellon (6-0)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 15, 2006, 07:40:03 pm
So stupid that Trinity (TX) can play Redlands (CA), Hardin-Simmons take in Linfield (OR) and UW-Stevens Point,  and Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX) take on UW-Whitewater and have all be "in region," but somehow only 5 of Wesley's 10 games are "in region."

In-region is a totally meaningless distinction now.  Get rid of it (directed at NCAA, not Bob). 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 15, 2006, 07:42:06 pm
IMHO it has always been a meaningless distinction, only the more so now.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on October 17, 2006, 01:42:55 pm
Pool B is for teams that do not have an automatic bid for conf champ?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 17, 2006, 01:53:37 pm
So stupid that Trinity (TX) can play Redlands (CA), Hardin-Simmons take in Linfield (OR) and UW-Stevens Point,  and Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX) take on UW-Whitewater and have all be "in region," but somehow only 5 of Wesley's 10 games are "in region."

In-region is a totally meaningless distinction now.  Get rid of it (directed at NCAA, not Bob). 

Ron, I can imagine how coaches would use in-region and non-in-region...

UMHB could schedule Mount Union as a regular season game.

Both teams get a strong opponent, but the loss will not hurt chances at Pool C or Bracket-seeding.

It is a whole lot better than having to schedule NAIA's or D2/D1AA's to fill a schedule.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 17, 2006, 02:29:21 pm
Ralph I think the UMHB-MtU scenario is a positive, but unintended, consequence.  With the definition of "in region" expanded, I'm not sure what the original intent was.  Is there a point in encouraging MtU to play UMHB rather than Wheaton or WUStL to play MtU, not Wheaton?  UMHB scheduled CNU this year and that is in region.  Maybe it depends on whether a school's interest is a risk-free tough game or a tough game to add to regional ranking if they win.

Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see a point in the distinction.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 17, 2006, 02:50:11 pm
I'm not sure UMHB knew the Whitewater game would be an in-region game. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 17, 2006, 03:34:12 pm
When it was scheduled, it was not (IIRC).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 17, 2006, 03:40:21 pm
Ron, I'm not sure they would have made that game if they had known.  Oh well, they still make the playoffs win or lose if they win the ASC.  Interesting question earlier, would HSU have a higher seeding if they win out, UMHB wins the ASC, but loses to Whitewater.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: BDTartan on October 18, 2006, 10:22:10 pm
I don't fully understand this but I am catching a grasp of it.  I kind of figured CMU had to go 10-0 to get in, but I have one question for those who believe they get in with 1 loss:  Who is that one loss to?  Obviously not Chicago or Bethany so I am assuming it would be Thiel or Washington depending on how those two teams finish am I correct?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2006, 07:13:59 am
Good morning Tartan,

I have missed Pool B Prognostications before (especially Huntingdon in basketball in 2006), but I think that you have a strong chance of getting a bid, B or C, if you go undefeated.  The winning percentage is maxed; you have a higher QOWI (by at least 0.4 Index points), and you are trying for all 23 11 bids.*  A loss drops your winning percentage and QOWI into the mix of teams who will have one loss.  There are some very strong one-loss teams that have better data to use when applying the primary criteria from the Handbook.

Tartan, under the new Pools system, my emotional issue is how does the NCAA tell an undefeated team that they did not do enough to earn a bid.  That is pure emotion, which is not one of the criteria.

By the 9th week, after the first Regional Rankings, we will get an idea of CMU's chances.

Good luck!

*  Technically as a Pool B team you are trying for all 23 11 bids anyway.  My thoughts are that an undefeated CMU is closer to parity with the Wesley's, Whitworth's and Wash & Jeff's. (Sorry about the reference to 23.  I had just come from the Basketball Pool B boards and was confused about the number of Pool C bids...a really "bad" my bad!) :-\
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: BDTartan on October 19, 2006, 07:22:31 am
Thanks for the info.  I am going to do a little bit of reading this morning to help myself understand this playoff system.  The only thing I ever had to deal with was the Ohio H.S. Football playoff system which was a little simpler.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 19, 2006, 09:48:48 pm
Is the NCAA going to release regional rankings this year?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 19, 2006, 10:04:02 pm
IMHO it has always been a meaningless distinction, only the more so now.

Agreed.

Pool B is for teams that do not have an automatic bid for conf champ?

affirmative. They tend to be leagues with less than seven members or ones who recently added the seventh and haven't completed the two-year waiting period.

Pool B is going the way of the Dodo. The NWC, PAC and even UMAC aka SLIAC have made moves to get an AQ in coming years.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 19, 2006, 10:09:39 pm
I think that you have a strong chance of getting a bid, B or C, if you go undefeated.  The winning percentage is maxed; you have a higher QOWI (by at least 0.4 Index points) ... Tartan, under the new Pools system, my emotional issue is how does the NCAA tell an undefeated team that they did not do enough to earn a bid.  That is pure emotion, which is not one of the criteria.

I agree with this. As an unbeaten, I would not worry ... I think the numbers would work out in any unbeaten's favor, if not in Pool B, then definitely against one of the seven Pool B/C runner-up bids.

I'm a little lost on the number 23 though. There are 21 automatic bids for football and 11 other bids (4 Pool B, four Pool B/C).

And briefly, Pool A is conference champions, Pool B is teams who don't have an AQ to chase and Pool C is Pool A runners-up and third-place teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on October 19, 2006, 10:28:16 pm
I'm confused by your "four pool B/C" comment.  As I understand it, there are B bids, then any remaining B teams go into pool C.  Hypothetically (though it would never happen) couldn't ALL the C bids be B teams?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2006, 10:45:59 pm
IMHO it has always been a meaningless distinction, only the more so now.

Agreed.

Pool B is for teams that do not have an automatic bid for conf champ?

affirmative. They tend to be leagues with less than seven members or ones who recently added the seventh and haven't completed the two-year waiting period.

Pool B is going the way of the Dodo. The NWC, PAC and even UMAC aka SLIAC have made moves to get an AQ in coming years.

What makes no sense to me is why didn't the UAA "borrow" 3 NCAC teams as "affiliates" to make a Pool A conference so they could get a Pool A bid of their own!  A UAA team has not had a Pool B bid in the 21st Century!  The NCAC doesn't play round-robin even now.   And there will be some long-time rivalries messed up by this arrangement!  (Isn't the Allegheny /W&J rivalry jeopardized by this?)   A new NCAC and a new UAA would have 6 conference games and four non-conference games.  Surely the NCAC and UAA teams are close enough to institutional peers for football's sake! :-\

The current UAA/NCAC scheduling arrangement looks like the proverbial horse/camel designed by committee! 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 19, 2006, 11:59:32 pm
IMHO your idea Ralph makes sense at first, but the problem I see is which 3 teams?  Say Kenyon, Oberlin, and Denison were loaned to the UAA.  That leaves Hiram and Earlham alone at the bottom of the pack with five very tough oponents (well at least 4).  I'm not sure they would hang around to be cannon fodder (and Earlham has chosen not to join the NCAC-UAA fold-does that portend a possible split to the HCAC?).  I can see Allegheny or Wooster or both fitting into the UAA to leave a better competetively balanced NCAC.  But unless Wabash is one of the loaned teams, Chicago and WUStL would be sort of on an island away from the mainland of the other teams with a lot of travel.  I'm not sure that Wabash would be welcomed by the UAA teams or that Wabash would want to join in this arrangement.

I think my idea of two seven-team conferences along geographic lines, which would also have competetive balance would be more likely to be adopted.  But then I think that runs afoul of the NCAA's "new conference" regulations.

Bottom line, I wonder if the playoffs are that big an issue for the UAA teams.  They have had plenty of schedule slots to schedule playoff contenders to demonstrate their worthiness.  WUStL scheduled Mt Union and Wheaton and Trinity,  CMU played Wesley, Chicago faced DePauw lately, and CWRU has had Wooster for years.  But only Wheaton, Trinity, and Mt are really powers year in year out, and basically, the UAA has gone 0-fer.  The NCAC-UAA agreement does significantly limit those opportunities

Do you foresee Pool B falling to only one spot?  If not, then doesn't the loss of the Pool B conferences except ACFC increase the UAA's chances of a playoff spot?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 20, 2006, 12:27:11 am
Further insight from the Chicago Maroon on the agreement with NCAC.
"Over the last three years, conference officials have sought to address these difficulties via a football-only adjunct conference with the UAA and other local teams or a cross-scheduling consortium of three or four different leagues across the Midwest. Dennis Collins, the executive director of the NCAC, had been involved in these discussions, and after these efforts fell through approached the UAA about a formal arrangement between the two leagues last summer."

And on what teams might be considered appropriate: "The conference includes such top-tier liberal arts colleges as the College of Wooster, Kenyon, Oberlin, and Ohio Wesleyan."
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 20, 2006, 01:10:56 am
By 2011, I have projected these Pool B teams.  I am not touching the new schools adding football.

As the rules are written now, the Pool A access ratio for the known conference configurations in 2011 will be about 1: 8.708.  I proposed this configuration of the football playing conferences last summer.  I counted 209 teams among 24 conferences.

http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3830.77

http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3830.78

http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3830.79

If further non-football consolidation occurs in the Mid-Atlantic states, then we may see another Pool A conference sponsor football. (?Capital Athetic Conference...they have Wesley, Gallaudet and Salisbury coming on board.  Who else is playing football at that time?  Frostburg would logically affiliate.  Do PSU-Berks or PSU-Harrisburg add football because there is a conference nearby?  We need a Capital "full member" now to make 7.) 

With 17 Pool B schools from my postulations, an access ratio of 1:8.70 yields 1.95 bids (which truncates to 1).  Then we have one Pool B bid, as you suggested.

The schools/conferences that wish to avail the AQ are the driving force in this whole matter.  The UMAC/SLIAC is a weak conference, but they wish to have an AQ and are using the guidelines to achieve that for their student-athletes.

Seventeen schools chasing one Pool B bid is optimal for the Pool A teams and their Pool C compatriots.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 20, 2006, 02:24:16 am
I'm confused by your "four pool B/C" comment.  As I understand it, there are B bids, then any remaining B teams go into pool C.  Hypothetically (though it would never happen) couldn't ALL the C bids be B teams?

Hypothetically, yes.

I meant four Pool B, seven Pool B/C.

Ralph Turner / genius = same
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 20, 2006, 02:32:18 am
Further insight from the Chicago Maroon on the agreement with NCAC.
"Over the last three years, conference officials have sought to address these difficulties via a football-only adjunct conference with the UAA and other local teams or a cross-scheduling consortium of three or four different leagues across the Midwest. Dennis Collins, the executive director of the NCAC, had been involved in these discussions, and after these efforts fell through approached the UAA about a formal arrangement between the two leagues last summer."

And on what teams might be considered appropriate: "The conference includes such top-tier liberal arts colleges as the College of Wooster, Kenyon, Oberlin, and Ohio Wesleyan."

The other problem with the UAA, I would guess, is it's a perfectly fine Super-smart Conference USA in other sports. It must be the travel costs that turn one of its five football-playing members (Rochester) off ... And the rest of them don't play football (un-American, if you ask me.)

Going from Boston to St. Louis to Atlanta to Chicago with 15 basketball players and 18 field hockey players (or however many travel) doesn't seem to make much more sense, given how many games there are ... basketball for instance, don't conferences play home-and-home every year. So why can you take 15-25 people on seven or eight gigantic road trips but not 55-80 on four?

Guess I would have to have attended one of those schools to do that math.

I think it makes about as much sense as the NESCAC allowing all its other teams to play non-conference games and compete for national championships but limiting its football teams to eight games and a scrimmage. Is the cross country, swim or basketball season not demanding?

UAA Members (according to D3hoops.com, thanks Google!)

Brandeis
Waltham, MA
 
Carnegie Mellon
Pittsburgh, PA
 
Case Western Reserve
Cleveland, OH
 
Chicago
Chicago, IL
 
Emory
Atlanta, GA
 
New York University
New York, NY
 
Rochester
Rochester, NY
 
Washington U.
Saint Louis, MO
 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 20, 2006, 08:00:32 am
Maybe I didn't make it clear, Keith, those hypotheses were for football only.

Playoffs were not cited in the article as a force behind the UAA search, only scheduling difficulties.

Ralph, do you think if Pool B shrank to 1 or 2 spots, the NCAA would just roll all non-AQs to one pool?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 20, 2006, 09:13:17 am
IMHO your idea Ralph makes sense at first, but the problem I see is which 3 teams?  Say Kenyon, Oberlin, and Denison were loaned to the UAA.  That leaves Hiram and Earlham alone at the bottom of the pack with five very tough oponents (well at least 4).

I defer to your understanding of that "neighborhood".

I'm not sure they would hang around to be cannon fodder (and Earlham has chosen not to join the NCAC-UAA fold-does that portend a possible split to the HCAC?). 

Earlham has been everywhere in their conference arrangements.  They were in the SCAC from 1964-89 when it was the Collegiate Athletic Conference.

I can see Allegheny or Wooster or both fitting into the UAA to leave a better competetively balanced NCAC.  But unless Wabash is one of the loaned teams, Chicago and WUStL would be sort of on an island away from the mainland of the other teams with a lot of travel.

But does that matter for just one road trip per year?

I'm not sure that Wabash would be welcomed by the UAA teams or that Wabash would want to join in this arrangement.

I think my idea of two seven-team conferences along geographic lines, which would also have competetive balance would be more likely to be adopted.  But then I think that runs afoul of the NCAA's "new conference" regulations.

Unless the UAA core stays together, it does run afoul.

Bottom line, I wonder if the playoffs are that big an issue for the UAA teams.  They have had plenty of schedule slots to schedule playoff contenders to demonstrate their worthiness.  WUStL scheduled Mt Union and Wheaton and Trinity,  CMU played Wesley, Chicago faced DePauw lately, and CWRU has had Wooster for years.  But only Wheaton, Trinity, and Mt are really powers year in year out, and basically, the UAA has gone 0-fer.  The NCAC-UAA agreement does significantly limit those opportunities.

Unless all 14 schools were behind this, with a like mind, it doesn't work, and that was my assumption in proposing this.

Do you foresee Pool B falling to only one spot?  If not, then doesn't the loss of the Pool B conferences except ACFC increase the UAA's chances of a playoff spot?

I have played those "what-ifs" before and asked the same question.  IMHO, two of the best examples of teams that have played the "Pool B game" are Chapman in several sports but most notably baseball, and Maryville TN, especially in men's hoops.  The UAA chance for for a Pool B bid do get better, but if there is only one bid for the first 16-17 teams in Pool B, then that is a chancy strategy.  When we have had larger Pool B allocations, it has not worked.  I think that the Presidents AC got tired of playing the Pool B game in other sports (especially not getting basketball bids), but that is not a problem in the UAA.  Their other Pool B  sports such as Emory Baseball get bids all of the time.  Golf and Tennis are heading to Pool A as well.

Thanks for the conversation.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 20, 2006, 09:16:44 am

Ralph, do you think if Pool B shrank to 1 or 2 spots, the NCAA would just roll all non-AQs to one pool?

No, because these are the playoff guidelines that apply to all team sports.  I don't think that they would change this for just football.  IMHO, equitable access to the playoffs is the critical theory behind this rule configuration. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 20, 2006, 09:48:58 am
Maybe I didn't make it clear, Keith, those hypotheses were for football only.

I followed you fine. What did I say to make you think I didn't?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 20, 2006, 10:27:04 am
Maybe I didn't make it clear, Keith, those hypotheses were for football only.

I followed you fine. What did I say to make you think I didn't?

What I was saying more or less is that if a UAA school can travel 1/2 the country for its conference games in every other sport, it can find a football conference if it wants to ... since distance doesn't seem to be a limitation.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 20, 2006, 07:24:50 pm
Sorry Keith I missed the point.  Travel wasn't so much the problem for Rochester.  They were joint members of UAA and Upstate (now Liberty) in football and one or two others (as CWRU used to be with NCAC).  When that league expanded, it had to choose.  I think it was the scheduling issue which lead them to choose LL. 

If there is a travel issue, it would be for WUStL and Chicago who would have two more long trips under the NCAC lend-lease program.  I have no insight into the economics of the travel either.  As Keith suggests, maybe it doesn't make much difference.

I don't see any evidence that playoff chances have entered into the process for UAA football.

Thanx Gents for the discourse.  So much more civilized and intelligent than on that other board.   ;)

And here's to CMU continuing to win!!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 20, 2006, 09:46:43 pm
Outside of the ASC, Carnegie Mellon is my Cinderella this year. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 20, 2006, 10:03:25 pm
And inside ASC, Sul Ross?  Thought you were a McMurry guy.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 20, 2006, 10:54:45 pm
And inside ASC, Sul Ross?  Thought you were a McMurry guy.

McMurry travels to Sully this weekend for Sully's homecoming.  McMurry head coach Joe Crousen is a Sul Ross grad.  I know that he would love to spoil Homecoming.

If we do spoil Homecoming, then Cinderella will have lost her shoe. ;)

A bigger if... if we win the Abilene City Championship game against HSU on November 11th, then Cinderella will have lost her Cowboy boot. :)

Cinderella inside the ASC is the first South Region Stagg Bowl Championship since West Georgia in 1982.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 21, 2006, 08:05:05 pm
Updated after 10/21 games:

Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (7-0/4-0) 
@ Salisbury (3-4)
Chowan (0-7)
Morrisville State (1-6)

2)  Whitworth (7-0/6-0)  
Willamette (1-5)
@ Linfield (4-2)
Puget Sound (5-2)


3)  Washington & Jefferson (6-1/5-1)
Waynesburg (4-3)
Thomas More (5-2)
@ Bethany (3-4)


4)  Linfield (4-2, 3-1) 
Menlo (3-4)
Whitworth (7-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-6)


5)  Carnegie-Mellon (7-0/6-0)
@ Washington (MO) (5-3)
Bethany (3-4)
@ Thiel (4-4)


6)  Rockford (7-1/6-0)
Minnesota Morris (6-2)
@ Colorado College (3-3)
off

ADDING after this week (for discussion at least):

Thomas More (5-2/5-2)
Bethany (3-4)
@Washington & Jefferson (6-1)
Mt. St. Joseph (7-0)


Huntingdon (4-4) lost to Thomas More.  No longer under consideration.
Thiel (4-4) lost to Waynesburg.  No longer under consideration.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 22, 2006, 10:06:24 pm
Bob.Gregg,  What would a Linfield loss to Whitworth do to their chances?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 24, 2006, 12:17:56 am
Bob.Gregg,  What would a Linfield loss to Whitworth do to their chances?

End them?

I'm not Bob.Gregg, but if Linfield is pushed into Pool B-plus four group and gets judged against Pool C teams, I don't like their chances with losses to Whitworth AND Hardin-Simmons and only five in-region wins. Right now there are well over a dozen one-loss teams for seven Pool B/C spots, so unless Linfield is one of the top four in Pool B (i.e. someone else would have to lose too), I don't think they can sustain a loss to Whitworth and make the playoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 24, 2006, 02:35:55 am
K-Mack, thanks for your input. I have been wanting to ask that question but been afraid of what the answer would be. Part of me was blindly hoping that even with a 3rd loss, they might still be considered, especially with their reputation the last few years. I was also hanging my hat on the good fortune of a fellow conference team, Willamette, who in '04 got in with a very similar set of circumstances. The Bearcats also lost to a top ten ASC team (UMHB), a scholarship school (NAIA Eastern Oregon), and the NWC champ (Linfield). Yet, they squeaked in, and this when there were only 28 teams and without the (possible) influence of having just won a national championship two years earlier. However, as you point out there are plenty of one-loss teams this season, and I'm guessing Willamette might have caught a break in '04 in that there weren't as many teams with a lone blemish on their record. Also, Willamette played their ASC opponent much closer (losing in 2 OTs rather than by 2 TDs), and their having 10 games vs. Linfield's 9 probably helped, too.

So, I would have to agree with you that they need to win out, or else have very little to no chance of getting in.

A question for you. Not that this would necessarily increase their chances, but in reading your post Pool B teams are still technically eligible for Pool C spots, right? Out of curiosity, do you recall if a Pool B team(s) has ever been awarded a Pool C bid?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 24, 2006, 07:42:23 am
Bob.Gregg,  What would a Linfield loss to Whitworth do to their chances?

Bill,  sorry for the delay in getting this back.  Updated my Pool B "What's Left" and then left myself for a few days (gotta do that this time of year).

In this year's Pool B picture, another Linfield loss, even to Whitworth, puts them "on the bubble" at best.  "B" is their only real chance, and unless "B" pulls a 2003-type collapse again, I don't see it happening.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 24, 2006, 07:45:26 am
...Out of curiosity, do you recall if a Pool B team(s) has ever been awarded a Pool C bid?

Not yet, Foss, but as I always ask this time of year:

Is THIS the year a "B" gets a "C"???
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 24, 2006, 08:50:30 am
K-Mack, thanks for your input. I have been wanting to ask that question but been afraid of what the answer would be. Part of me was blindly hoping that even with a 3rd loss, they might still be considered, especially with their reputation the last few years. I was also hanging my hat on the good fortune of a fellow conference team, Willamette, who in '04 got in with a very similar set of circumstances. The Bearcats also lost to a top ten ASC team (UMHB), a scholarship school (NAIA Eastern Oregon), and the NWC champ (Linfield). Yet, they squeaked in, and this when there were only 28 teams and without the (possible) influence of having just won a national championship two years earlier. However, as you point out there are plenty of one-loss teams this season, and I'm guessing Willamette might have caught a break in '04 in that there weren't as many teams with a lone blemish on their record. Also, Willamette played their ASC opponent much closer (losing in 2 OTs rather than by 2 TDs), and their having 10 games vs. Linfield's 9 probably helped, too.

So, I would have to agree with you that they need to win out, or else have very little to no chance of getting in.

A question for you. Not that this would necessarily increase their chances, but in reading your post Pool B teams are still technically eligible for Pool C spots, right? Out of curiosity, do you recall if a Pool B team(s) has ever been awarded a Pool C bid?

Foss, one big thing is different this year from the Willamette team.

The 2004 UMHB loss did not count as an in-region game that year.
Thus the in-region won-loss percentage will be lower.

For newcomers to the site, non-D3 opponents do not impact primary criteria for selection by the committee.

Primary Selection Criteria (http://www.d3football.com/faq.php?answer&category=Playoffs&id=25)

Please remember that Pat has annotated each team's schedule with "in-region" games.  And, margin of victory is not a criterion.

If Linfield runs the table, they get in.  As I see it now, one more loss puts them on the bubble, and IMHO, they will stay home.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 24, 2006, 08:57:01 am
...Out of curiosity, do you recall if a Pool B team(s) has ever been awarded a Pool C bid?

Not yet, Foss, but as I always ask this time of year:

Is THIS the year a "B" gets a "C"???

Bob, if Linfield beats Whitworth and everyone else wins out, the I think that this is the year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 24, 2006, 10:12:54 am
What if Whitworth beats Linfield?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 24, 2006, 10:17:05 am
  And, margin of victory is not a criterion.


But I would like to see OT Ws and Ls treated differently as they are in the NHL and, I think, MLS. [Can't get my comment out of the "quote" box]
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 24, 2006, 11:32:47 am
What if Whitworth beats Linfield?

Good question, Bill.

If Whitworth beats Linfield, I think Linfield is out.

Wesley, Whitworth, W&J, & CMU get the "B"s.

Rockford? With THAT schedule?  and a loss on it...?


No "C" for a "B" this year if Whitworth beats Linfield.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 24, 2006, 01:10:00 pm
What if Whitworth beats Linfield?

Good question, Bill.

If Whitworth beats Linfield, I think Linfield is out.

Wesley, Whitworth, W&J, & CMU get the "B"s.

Rockford? With THAT schedule?  and a loss on it...?


No "C" for a "B" this year if Whitworth beats Linfield.

Rockford's in-region record is 7-0 and the QOWI is #25 at 10.000.

I think that they are still on the bubble at #6.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 24, 2006, 02:48:16 pm
[Can't get my comment out of the "quote" box]

You had one too many people posting in there. Get rid of Foss and it would look like you posted it.

Linfield/Willamette is an interesting comparison, and certainly some Bs could lose unexpectedly and open the door for Linfield to get in even with a loss, although it would probably be a road game and maybe a similar result to Willamette in '04.

Bs have only been eligible to get Cs in the 32-team bracket, so for one year, and I don't think it happened last year.

But it's good that there's flexibility in the pool system so that everyone has access to a bid, and a deserving B isn't left out just because it is a B. The Cs, of course, had their shot at the AQ so the logic goes, and leaving them out is not as exclusionary.

Ralph, I'm getting ready to look this up ... how much will Carnegie-Mellon's non-region games affect their chances?

With a Linfield loss to Whitworth, do they remain a viable candidate with a loss to someone other than Thiel? What about if it is Thiel?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 24, 2006, 03:01:09 pm
Bob.Gregg,  What would a Linfield loss to Whitworth do to their chances?

What if Whitworth beats Linfield?

Bill, this is an excellent question but I'm wondering if the second time you meant to ask it the other way around (What if Linfield beats Whitworth, what would that do to Whitworth?) Is that what you meant?

Bob, thanks for the reply. Sounds like there is a possibilty we may see the first Pool B get that Pool C this time around. I guess we'll see.

Ralph, yes - I had forgot about that. The fact the UMHB game for Willamette in '04 was not an in-region game was likely the biggest factor in them getting in. Per the primary criteria, they only had one in-region loss.

The loss would have been viewed in the secondary criteria, as in a sense do losses to non-D3 opponents since "Overall win-loss percentage" in also part of the secondary criteria, which I personally feel places teams who are forced to play more scholarship schools at an inherent disadvantage. Although margin of victory (or defeat) is not listed anywhere in the primary or secondary criteria, for some reason I can't help but think the committee takes a peak at this in certain cases. I may be totally wrong on this. If there are two teams competing for a playoff spot and everything is pretty equal between them (in regards to the primary and secondary criteria), but team A has a narrow loss and team B loses badly to someone rougly the same caliber as the squad team A lost to, which team "looks" better?

K-Mack - sorry, but there's no getting rid of me. I'm like a bad dream that keeps coming back.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 24, 2006, 07:57:57 pm
oops.  If Linfield wins, does Whitworth still get a Pool B?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 24, 2006, 08:10:01 pm
...Bs have only been eligible to get Cs in the 32-team bracket...

K-Mack, I believe the "B"s have been "C" eligible all along....
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 25, 2006, 12:19:43 am
...Bs have only been eligible to get Cs in the 32-team bracket...

K-Mack, I believe the "B"s have been "C" eligible all along....

I don't remember that being the case, but maybe it was so impractical when there were just three Cs that we never considered it.

Still, I think it would have been possible to have five 10-0 Bs and Cs by definition have to have at least one loss, so you think I would have remembered considering it.

Foss,
 I too believe the committee must leave itself room to finagle and interpret so they can get the teams they think are the best in there. I know they're supposed to go by the book, but I am a cynic in that sense. I don't think they can take major leaps of faith, but they can definitely break ties and help seeding with that extra info. Also, I imagine each committee is a bit different, maybe they run it a bit different year-to-year.

Bottom line, if you're one of the last teams in or out, you probably blew a chance to make it easier on yourself somewhere along the way, and can't complain, really.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 25, 2006, 12:25:40 am
No, the B's have not been C-eligible all along. That change took place a year or two before the expansion.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 25, 2006, 01:54:20 pm
oops.  If Linfield wins, does Whitworth still get a Pool B?

Bill, I would think Whitworth would still be in pretty good shape if their only blemish was to Linfield. I would guess they would get the nod over one of the teams that Bob has listed, with the exception of Wesley (and probably Linfield since they would have lost the head to head). Worst case, maybe they become the first Pool B to get a Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 25, 2006, 04:19:58 pm
Regional rankings posted http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?p=254
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Sabretooth Tiger on October 25, 2006, 04:52:20 pm
So Pat, my reading of the criteria and quality of wins application tells me that Oxy's win over Colorado College and how Colorado College fairs as the season winds down will have no real impact on Oxy's regional seed assuming that the Tigers (Oxy, not CC) finish the regular season undefeated?  That Oxy's only real hope to move up in the regional rankings are losses by those currently ranked higher?

tooth
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 25, 2006, 06:29:34 pm
So Pat, my reading of the criteria and quality of wins application tells me that Oxy's win over Colorado College and how Colorado College fairs as the season winds down will have no real impact on Oxy's regional seed assuming that the Tigers (Oxy, not CC) finish the regular season undefeated?  That Oxy's only real hope to move up in the regional rankings are losses by those currently ranked higher?

tooth
tooth, as an ASC fan, I believe that the geographic proximity clause in the Handbook has a greater impact on the early round games than the seedings.

In 2002, South Region #3 and overall #5 UMHB went to South Region #2 and overall #4 Trinity.

I think that your best chance is for OXY to run the table, for Linfield to beat Whitworth and for Oxy to get the highest seed in the "West Coast subregional".  The committee would send the lower ranked team to Oxy.  Someone (St Norbert) would be flown to the higher ranked NWC team (and then Oxy would host the second round game.

I really don't see someone knocking SJU or UWW (if they defeat UMHB) from the top seed or two.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on October 25, 2006, 07:38:59 pm
Ralph, are there any other areas that could be called a "sub-regional"?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 25, 2006, 08:29:45 pm
Ralph, are there any other areas that could be called a "sub-regional"?

Bill, I really don't consider any other areas sub-regionals, because they can get on a bus and drive 500 miles.  You know that it is 530 miles from UMHB to Miss Coll and www.mappoint.com and 351 miles (7 hrs 42 minutes) from Belton to Pineville thru College Station to Huntsville and thru Deep East Texas or 429 miles (7 hrs, 17 minutes) by the interstates.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on October 25, 2006, 09:14:42 pm
Although I'm sure I'm exaggerating a bit, we in the CCIW feel like we've gotten into a 'de facto' sub-regional.  First round: someone we can usually beat.  Second round: off to Alliance, OH, for our annual butt-kicking! ;D

Oh, well, I imagine the OAC felt the same way about Augie 20 years ago.  We've just got to step it up to where our top teams are more than top 10%, but competitive with THE BEST.  MUC (and others) eventually surpassed the Viking machine; hopefully in my lifetime, our top teams can return the favor!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 26, 2006, 11:53:57 pm
Ralph,
 You're saying you don't consider Texas, the original sub-regional, a sub-regional?

 I just posted on the "way too early" thread how UMHB could have two losses, but be ranked ahead of HSU by virtue of h2h and then in theory be ahead of Trinity, which lost to TLU, an upper-middle ASC finisher ... and there would still be the Texas sub-regional.
 
 If the South were strong this year, with say an unbeaten Wesley, Bridgewater, W&J and CNU ... there's no way they would fly all three Texas teams out for road games ... Bridgewater would still play CNU, etc.

 Basically the ASC champ or Trinity is guaranteed a home game.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 28, 2006, 04:27:43 pm
My bad, K-Mack.  I do consider Texas the original sub-regional.  I meant to clarify that once out of the regular season, you may need to fly teams to separate areas, e.g., Miss College could host a Huntingdon.  But, the NCAA would need to fly Miss Coll to McMurry or HSU for basketball or baseball.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 28, 2006, 05:57:37 pm
Wesley wins with late field goal, 13-10 at Salisbury.

W&J beats Waynesburg, 30-3, holding Yellow Jackets to 171 yards total offense.

Carnegie-Mellon wins with OT field goal, 10-7 at Washington (MO)

Whitworth hosts Willamette (1-5)

Linfield hosts Menlo (3-4)

Rockford lost to Minnesota-Morris, 27-20 in OT.

And, no longer under consideration, Thomas More lost to Bethany, 20-17.

Looks to me like it's Five for Four in Pool B!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 28, 2006, 08:09:02 pm
Updated after 10/27-10/28 games:

Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (8-0/5-0)
Chowan (0-8)
Morrisville State (1-7)

2)  Whitworth (8-0/7-0)  
@ Linfield (5-2)
Puget Sound (6-2)


3)  Washington & Jefferson (7-1/6-1)
Thomas More (5-3)
@ Bethany (4-4)


4)  Linfield (5-2, 4-1) 
Whitworth (8-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-7)


5)  Carnegie-Mellon (8-0/7-0)
Bethany (4-4)
@ Thiel (4-4)


And in case there are multiple stumbles:

Rockford (7-2/6-1)
@ Colorado College (3-5)

off
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 28, 2006, 08:18:42 pm
Scratch Rockford.  They lost to Minn Morris Friday and are now 7-2.  But I guess still 6-0 in region.  I'm mystified that MN is not in their region, but CO is.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: gordonmann on October 28, 2006, 09:34:58 pm
Minnesota-Morris is still in its provisional status, so it's not entirely clear whether any games against the Cougars count in region.  If games against UMM do generally count, it will count against Rockford.  Illinois and Minnesota are in the same larger geographic region.

We might know more after the rankings, though honestly Rockford may not be on them anyway.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 28, 2006, 10:03:17 pm
Ahh, I was misled since they were in red rather than black.  Then Northwestern (MN) has the same status.  They also beat Rockford.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2006, 01:31:00 am
No, not all provisionals are the same, cwru.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 29, 2006, 08:43:57 am
As I was enlightened on the Pool C board. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on November 03, 2006, 08:26:22 am
What do you think will happen with the Pool Bs if Linfield loses to Whitworth and CMU loses one of their last 2 games?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 03, 2006, 10:45:56 am
Bill,

I would expect

Wesley, Whitworth, W&J & CMU.

Linfield would have two regional losses.  Rockford, well, who knows what they'll do with that topic....
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on November 03, 2006, 10:51:59 am
Bob, what if LInfield wins and CMU loses one of their final games?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 05, 2006, 01:12:11 am
QOWs are updated.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2006, 02:47:33 pm
Updated after 11/4 games:

Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (9-0/5-0) vs. Morrisville State (1-7)

2)  Whitworth (9-0/8-0)  vs. Puget Sound (7-2)

3)  Carnegie-Mellon (9-0/8-0) @ Thiel (5-4)

4)  Washington & Jefferson (8-1/7-1) @ Bethany (4-5)


On the bubble:

Linfield (5-3, 4-2)  @ Lewis & Clark (0-8)

And What IF:  Puget Sound beats Whitworth?

Puget Sound (7-2, 7-2) @ Whitworth (9-0)



Is there ANY one else we should be looking at?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on November 05, 2006, 03:05:22 pm
If Wesley, Whitworth, CMU and W&J win, those are the Pool B teams. Linfield probably needs W&J to lose to have a chance.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 05, 2006, 07:00:44 pm
Pool B looks pretty set to me, provided our four win, and maybe even if some of them lose.

I'll look at Puget Sound, but I think Linfield is done.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2006, 09:56:35 pm
I agree with the four locks if all win.

I was just wondering with any losses, are there others we should have "on the board"?


By the way, Puget Sound's QOW is currently 8.889.

Of course, a win over Whitworth would add significantly to it.

Not only that, but a significant win in region.  It won't be enough if all four win Saturday, but might be if one stumbles...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2006, 10:04:05 pm
Bob, I am not sure what the last week's changes to the QOWI will do, but a 15-point win over Whitworth will give (80+15=) 95 points, or 9.500 for Puget Sound.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: downtown48 on November 06, 2006, 01:30:46 am
I think I would throw up if Puget Sound got in over Linfield.  Didn't they have the Colorado School of the blind on their schedule?  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:07:41 pm
I think I would throw up if Puget Sound got in over Linfield.  Didn't they have the Colorado School of the blind on their schedule?  ;)

Yeah, they're about as weak as a 7-win team can be. But they won't beat Whitworth...so it's a non-issue. Their 7-3 finish will still only be good enough for a 4th place finish in the NWC (or a three-way tie for third if the Bearcats get by the Lutes). UPS' record features unimpressive wins over Colorado College, Menlo, L&C, and the bottom half of the SCIAC.

edit: Let me clarify the 'unimpressive' part of that. They did handily beat a couple unimpressive teams (Menlo and L&C) and got by a few others.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 03:11:15 pm
Okay, we'll just post an incomplete list of possible "B" candidates:

Updated after 11/4 games:

Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (9-0/5-0) vs. Morrisville State (1-7)

2)  Whitworth (9-0/8-0)  vs. Puget Sound (7-2)

3)  Carnegie-Mellon (9-0/8-0) @ Thiel (5-4)

4)  Washington & Jefferson (8-1/7-1) @ Bethany (4-5)


On the bubble:

Linfield (5-3, 4-2)  @ Lewis & Clark (0-8)

(unnamed team)....deleted due to HURL warnings!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:20:58 pm
Are there really no other 'bubble' teams? Would an 6-3 Linfield team go over a 9-1 C.M. or 8-2 W&J?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:24:41 pm
I guess let me also throw this out there. If in some way the Loggers do get past Whitworth on Saturday, they would still need C.M. or W&J to lose - right?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 03:26:14 pm
-train, that's what I was getting at.

Puget Sound was the only one I could see getting any possible consideration outside the five listed.  And they would need W&J and CMU to lose.

Who else is there:

Rockford?  They're 7-3, having just lost to Minn-Morris & Colorado College.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 03:28:18 pm
Pool B, in a matter of two weeks, has gone from

this IS the year a "B" gets a "C"

to

How in the WORLD are we going to fill those 4 spots?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:31:22 pm
-train, that's what I was getting at.

Puget Sound was the only one I could see getting any possible consideration outside the five listed.  And they would need W&J and CMU to lose.

Who else is there:

Rockford?  They're 7-3, having just lost to Minn-Morris & Colorado College.


Well, hopefully the four win out then. Doesn't sound like anyone else should even be considered (including Linfield, quite honestly)...and I'd hate to see a good Pool C team (or Linfield) at home with the Loggers in the playoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 03:37:27 pm
You don't have to worry about a "B" getting a "C" this year.

If one of the four loses and the Loggers get in because of it, there's no way the "B" gets a "C".

IF Linfield had won, and the rest won out, there would be a strong "B" for a "C" case.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 06, 2006, 03:58:24 pm
You don't have to worry about a "B" getting a "C" this year.

If one of the four loses and the Loggers get in because of it, there's no way the "B" gets a "C".

IF Linfield had won, and the rest won out, there would be a strong "B" for a "C" case.

No, no...I wasn't clear in my post. I was suggesting that if (say) W&J were to trip up, I'd rather see an 8th Pool C bid handed out than an obligatory 4th Pool B bid (to someone like UPS or even 6-3 Linfield). I know the structure wouldn't allow it, but I was just saying...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 04:08:13 pm
I see where you were going.

However, before we talk about talking spots away from teams in Pool B of questionable credentials and giving them to Pool C (really A), let's make sure there aren't any teams that would fit the same category.

If W&J loses, they'll be 8-2.
Dickinson can well finish 8-2, and they're already in.
The CCIW winner could be 8-2.
The E-8 winner could be 8-2.
Union can finish 7-2, and they're in.
Hope can finish 6-4, and they're in.
NJAC winner can be 7-2.
NCAC winner can be 7-3.
Wash & Lee can finish 7-3, and they're in.
SCAC winner can finish 7-3.
USASAC winner can finish 7-3.

That's about as clear a picture of why there's Pool A, Pool B and Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 06, 2006, 04:28:06 pm
I see where you were going.

However, before we talk about talking spots away from teams in Pool B of questionable credentials and giving them to Pool C (really A), let's make sure there aren't any teams that would fit the same category.

If W&J loses, they'll be 8-2.
Dickinson can well finish 8-2, and they're already in.
The CCIW winner could be 8-2.
The E-8 winner could be 8-2.
Union can finish 7-2, and they're in.
Hope can finish 6-4, and they're in.
NJAC winner can be 7-2.
NCAC winner can be 7-3.
Wash & Lee can finish 7-3, and they're in.
SCAC winner can finish 7-3.
USASAC winner can finish 7-3.

That's about as clear a picture of why there's Pool A, Pool B and Pool C.


And everyone of those teams except W&J has overcome adversity to win the Pool A bid.  (Under next year's rules, W&J is an "A" also!)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: CMURyan on November 06, 2006, 05:04:45 pm
Seems like any of the 4 listed could lose and still get in.  Maybe you would put a 3 loss Linfield in over a 2 loss W+J, but no other scenario makes sense.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 06:20:37 pm
Ryan,

You're correct.

That's why I moved CMU from the 5 spot on the list last week to the 3 spot this week.

I believe, win or lose, Wesley, Whitworth and Carnegie-Mellon have already "locked up" Pool B berths.

I believe W&J locks up a berth with a win Saturday. 

I believe W&J gets in, even with a loss, but it won't be a fun 20 hours for Coach Mike and the boys.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on November 06, 2006, 08:29:43 pm
It is probably worth pointing out that IF W&J loses, BOTH they and Linfield will have 2 in-region losses, which is the primary criteria for selection. Linfield's other loss was to a 6-3 DII scholarship school. This loss may be looked at under the secondary criteria and come back to haunt them. Linfield's DIII losses were to the #7 and #9 teams in the country. W&J's loss was to a currently 4-5 team and they will be playing a 4-5 team this week. I would think W&J would still get the nod even with a loss. However, the primary criteria looks at in-region games vs. DIII opponents, and both teams would have 2 losses if Linfield wins and W&J loses this Saturday (although W&J would have a higher in-region win % due to playing more games). It's probably Linfield's only shot to get in (a W&J loss) and my guess is it still wouldn't be enough to get them in.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 06, 2006, 08:58:50 pm
Foss,

Both would then have two in-region losses.

W&J would have SEVEN in-region wins, Linfield FIVE.

Linfield will have Stagg Bowl pedigree, W&J won't (at least not in this decade).

W&J would still have enough primary criteria to get the berth, I believe, but not wagering on it.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on November 06, 2006, 09:27:27 pm
Bob,

Yep, you're right.

W&J's in-region win % would be .777% (7-2), Linfield's would be .714% (5-2)

Here's a couple of others:

Linfield's QOWI would be 9.428 and W&J's would be 9.222

W&J would have more wins over teams with winning records (worse losses, but better wins)

Linfield would stay around their #24 D3poll ranking, W&J (currently #23) would fall out of the top 25 (not part of the criteria, but kind of interesting)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 07, 2006, 02:19:08 pm
Are there really no other 'bubble' teams? Would an 6-3 Linfield team go over a 9-1 C.M. or 8-2 W&J?

Do you think they would deserve to go?

I'm asking not to antagonize ... I applaud the Linfield schedule (really just the HSU game), but the problem I see is their six wins contain no more impressive defeats than W&J's eight or Carnegie Mellon's nine in that scenario.

As Pat likes to say (much more than me, anyway), it's about who you beat.

Anyway, you guys were dropping knowledge on this board, so carry on ... just wanted to make that point.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 07, 2006, 02:24:05 pm
Well, hopefully the four win out then. Doesn't sound like anyone else should even be considered (including Linfield, quite honestly)...and I'd hate to see a good Pool C team (or Linfield) at home with the Loggers in the playoffs.

agree.

Seems like any of the 4 listed could lose and still get in.  Maybe you would put a 3 loss Linfield in over a 2 loss W+J, but no other scenario makes sense.

also agree
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: downtown48 on November 07, 2006, 02:30:08 pm
I don't think they deserve to go...only because of the Whitworth result, which is still painful, but I'd love to see them get in and beat Oxy again because they are capable of doing that.  We didn't get 42 points worse and from what I can gather they didn't improve enough to cover the difference... ;)

Much beyond beating Oxy and Whitworth in a rematch I don't know how far we'd go.   :-\    Can't turn the ball over 19 times in three games and expect much consideration.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 07, 2006, 03:43:17 pm
Are there really no other 'bubble' teams? Would an 6-3 Linfield team go over a 9-1 C.M. or 8-2 W&J?

Do you think they would deserve to go?

I'm asking not to antagonize ... I applaud the Linfield schedule (really just the HSU game), but the problem I see is their six wins contain no more impressive defeats than W&J's eight or Carnegie Mellon's nine in that scenario.

As Pat likes to say (much more than me, anyway), it's about who you beat.

Anyway, you guys were dropping knowledge on this board, so carry on ... just wanted to make that point.

No, you're right, I don't believe they do. While Linfield would likely beat a few teams that will make the playoffs in a head-to-head, they have been eliminated on the field with losses to HSU and Whitworth. They had their chances this year and didn't get it done. If they end up in the playoffs, I think that means we're effectively inviting too many teams (but I'd argue the same for virtually any two-loss, at-large team).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 07, 2006, 11:13:49 pm
I'm not so sure Linfield would beat Oxy this year. It's hard to believe if you say "they're 42 points worse," but from afar it sounds like Linfield is a very different team than it was the past two years and before that. Oxy doesn't sound as good as previous years either, but I thought I'd just throw that out there.

How do you think Whitworth would fare if they host Oxy in the first round?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 08, 2006, 12:52:28 am
I'm not so sure Linfield would beat Oxy this year. It's hard to believe if you say "they're 42 points worse," but from afar it sounds like Linfield is a very different team than it was the past two years and before that. Oxy doesn't sound as good as previous years either, but I thought I'd just throw that out there.

How do you think Whitworth would fare if they host Oxy in the first round?

I think the Pirates will win.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 08, 2006, 01:26:25 am
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: downtown48 on November 08, 2006, 02:09:17 am
The 42 points is referencing the spread from last year's game between the two.  I agree with you 100% Linfield is obviously not as good as last year's team but as you said I don't think Oxy's is either.  Linfield didn't lose enough talent to cover that spread...I think they would win but more like 35-28, 28-17, something like that.

The Whitworth/Oxy game is tough for me to call.  I would tend to agree with D-train that Whitworth will win, but it will be close.  You know by now that I was less than impressed with Whitworth, their offense is not even close to what it has been the last couple of years.  Granted I saw them in terrible weather but they haven't put up points all year against average competition.  Joel Clark seems to stare down Allen (the big TE) from snap to pass.  The guy is a monster and I'd imagine AWESOME down of the goal line to throw to.  But Whitworth lines him up on the outside or in the slot almost always and Linfield didn't have any DB's he could get open on.  Seems he'd be far better on a LB, catch a short pass and just run over people.  Linfield moved the ball on them in the rain so I wasn't impressed with the defense either. 

Seeing Oxy the last two years I've been impressed with Collins and that's it.  They couldn't protect him, couldn't run it, couldn't defend the pass and couldn't defend the run (and our run game was suspect last year).  Now unless they've improved in those areas, they will have trouble.  Granted the last two Linfield teams have been GOOD and I know Oxy won a couple of games in the playoffs two years ago but I don't think they'll get it done in the cold weather in Spokane. 

The two quarterbacks will both play well, whoever's supporting cast shows up will get the W.  I think Whitworth's defense is better and they'll be at home so they win say...28-24.  But they get beat the next week by whoever they play.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 08, 2006, 11:19:26 am
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?

Oh, maybe 24-14 in Spokane. It won't be 44-7 - Whitworth hasn't been putting up those kinds of offensive numbers this year except versus L&C. But contrary to DT48, I think Whitworth's defense is pretty solid. Linfield had a some success moving the ball, but I think the 'Cat offense is better then people think (besides the Luteovers...I mean turnovers). And I'm sure the Pirates bring more on offense when they are not nursing a lead in awful conditions. I also think Linfield would beat Oxy if they were to play next weekend. A little higher scoring, but about the same margin. Oxy would have a slightly better chance at home, but even then I'd put money on either NWC squad to take 'em.

Looking down the road - I'm convinced we'll see SJU and UW-W in the quarters. They seem to be at least a notch above the field out this way and their home field in those second round games will be key.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wildcat11 on November 08, 2006, 11:36:18 am
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?

Oh, maybe 24-14 in Spokane. It won't be 44-7 - Whitworth hasn't been putting up those kinds of offensive numbers this year except versus L&C. But contrary to DT48, I think Whitworth's defense is pretty solid. Linfield had a some success moving the ball, but I think the 'Cat offense is better then people think (besides the Luteovers...I mean turnovers). And I'm sure the Pirates bring more on offense when they are not nursing a lead in awful conditions. I also think Linfield would beat Oxy if they were to play next weekend. A little higher scoring, but about the same margin. Oxy would have a slightly better chance at home, but even then I'd put money on either NWC squad to take 'em.

Looking down the road - I'm convinced we'll see SJU and UW-W in the quarters. They seem to be at least a notch above the field out this way and their home field in those second round games will be key.

Hands down if the game is in Spokane then the Rats will win but I agree with DT48 and D-Train that it won't be ala blowout. 

The Rats just don't have the horses to push the gas to the floor.  The Rats defense is more of a "bend but don't break" ball hawking defense.  They can get burned but the chances they take can pay huge dividends.  The Rats defense reminded more of an old style PLU defense...not super physical but good side to side speed and the willingness to gamble.

Oxy...Collins is amazingly good but I have not seen anybody else on the Oxy offense that is a real gamebreaker and it doesn't look like anybody else has stepped up to be Collins money guy to help take the heat off.  At least Joel Clark has Allen to throw to and I think that will be the difference.

My line would look like: Rats -10.  I think Whitworth's run stops at the second round.

(K-Mack…Oxy still wouldn’t beat Linfield either.  ;) )
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Sabretooth Tiger on November 08, 2006, 02:02:57 pm
Cool.

Care to elaborate?

10-7? 44-7?

Oh, maybe 24-14 in Spokane. It won't be 44-7 - Whitworth hasn't been putting up those kinds of offensive numbers this year except versus L&C. But contrary to DT48, I think Whitworth's defense is pretty solid. Linfield had a some success moving the ball, but I think the 'Cat offense is better then people think (besides the Luteovers...I mean turnovers). And I'm sure the Pirates bring more on offense when they are not nursing a lead in awful conditions. I also think Linfield would beat Oxy if they were to play next weekend. A little higher scoring, but about the same margin. Oxy would have a slightly better chance at home, but even then I'd put money on either NWC squad to take 'em.

Looking down the road - I'm convinced we'll see SJU and UW-W in the quarters. They seem to be at least a notch above the field out this way and their home field in those second round games will be key.

Hands down if the game is in Spokane then the Rats will win but I agree with DT48 and D-Train that it won't be ala blowout. 

The Rats just don't have the horses to push the gas to the floor.  The Rats defense is more of a "bend but don't break" ball hawking defense.  They can get burned but the chances they take can pay huge dividends.  The Rats defense reminded more of an old style PLU defense...not super physical but good side to side speed and the willingness to gamble.

Oxy...Collins is amazingly good but I have not seen anybody else on the Oxy offense that is a real gamebreaker and it doesn't look like anybody else has stepped up to be Collins money guy to help take the heat off.  At least Joel Clark has Allen to throw to and I think that will be the difference.

My line would look like: Rats -10.  I think Whitworth's run stops at the second round.

(K-Mack…Oxy still wouldn’t beat Linfield either.  ;) )

As you might expect, I think you guys are underestimating the Tigers (as I hope Whitworth or whomever we meet in round 1 does) . . .

Collins can spread it to a number of receivers, Anderson is doing a great job at running back, the O-line has jelled and the defense is a good unit that has gone up against a good qb in Jones at CLU.  If it stays dry, it'll be a damn good game.

for whatever that view is worth,

tooth
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 08, 2006, 05:45:30 pm
for whatever that view is worth,

tooth

It's worth roughly as much as each of ours, so there you go. Should be interesting.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: BDTartan on November 09, 2006, 07:49:45 pm
Seems to be a somewhat mixed response when asked on the PAC board if CMU gets in with a loss to Thiel.  What do you guys think?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 09, 2006, 08:39:09 pm
IMO, CMU is still a lock at 9-1.  I think the only one who MIGHT be in trouble with a loss is W & J.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 09, 2006, 09:15:41 pm
Asked and answered, BD.

http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3830.msg599159#msg599159
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on November 10, 2006, 01:43:52 pm
Just my 2 cents on a Whitworth-Oxy game.  I think it would really come down to Oxy's O vs. Witworth's D:  Whitworth has a pretty good defense but showed last week that they can have the ball moved on them.  Their offense has really been a disapointment this year compared to what we'd expected from them after the last year or two.  Oxy, on the other hand,  has put up pretty good number on offense and has played "o.k." defense (statistically).  What we don't really know is:  1.  Is Whitworth's D as good as the stats suggest (they've only played one goo team (last week) in my opinion) and 2.  Is Oxy's offense as good as stats suggest (again, pretty weak competition)?  If the answer to both questions is "yes" then I think we see a battle between the two with turovers deciding the game (much like the game last week WW vs. LC).  Location also plays a big role with a home game for WW being a bigger advantage than a home game for Oxy (weather in Eagle Rock is not a huge factor but it could get cold, wet, snowy in Spokane).  With all that being said, I have to give the game to Whitworth probably with a score in the 28-21 range (if Oxy's offense steps up to the challenge).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 11, 2006, 05:22:41 pm
Updated after 11/11 games:

1)  Wesley (10-0/5-0)

2)  Whitworth (9-0/8-0)  vs. Puget Sound (7-2)

3)  Carnegie-Mellon (10-0/9-0)

4)  Washington & Jefferson (9-1/8-1)


On the bubble:

Linfield (5-3, 4-2)  @ Lewis & Clark (0-8)

(unnamed team)....deleted due to HURL warnings!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bill McCabe on November 11, 2006, 05:23:35 pm
Bob,  Linfield doesn't really have a shot do they?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 11, 2006, 05:27:33 pm
Not really.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 11, 2006, 05:34:33 pm
Whitworth is up 37-21 at the start of the 4th and are in the red zone.
So Pool B is pretty much locked up.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: pg04 on November 11, 2006, 05:35:19 pm
And BDTartan may take a sigh of relief, as there is absolutely no chance the Committee will overlook them now.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: BDTartan on November 11, 2006, 07:42:18 pm
I never doubted the Tartans could do it.  I just wasn't going to say anything til' they did.  What a turnaround from last year.  Excellent season, I hope they make something happen in the playoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: royalachilles on November 11, 2006, 07:52:16 pm
PortGrad any thoughts about Bethel after beating SJU today as to where or who they would draw in the first round??
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: pg04 on November 11, 2006, 08:01:47 pm
I'm not an expert at all on the west, so I don't want to make any guesses on it, but after a win like that does Bethel get a home game? I just don't know at this point!  So many things still up for grabs
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 12, 2006, 10:14:59 pm
Pool B Seedings

Conference SeedTeam
ACFCWesley S#1
NWCWhitworthW#3
UAACMUS#4
PresAC W&JS#6


(*  The NCAA did not release the final regional ranking after the release of the bracket seeding.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 17, 2006, 12:25:21 am
I liked the pre-Week 11 Whitworth-Oxy analysis.

Also you guys here seem to be dealing with the West Coast subbracket and matchup of top 10 teams better that some others in a similar situation  ;D

Wouldn't mind being in Spokane this weekend. Someone eat some Rock City and drink some Hefeweizen for me afterward.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on March 20, 2007, 02:10:45 pm
The moves inside Pool B for the 2008 season continue as we have seen the affiliation of Huntingdon and LaGrange with the SLIAC, and (SUNY-)Brockport State and provisional SUNY-Morrisville to the NJAC.

In 2007 we shall see the Pres AC moving to Pool A.  Colorado College will play in the SCAC.

In 2008, the Northwest Conference moves to Pool A status.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on March 21, 2007, 09:30:29 am
I have copied a post from the ODAC board from last night.


Wesley is in the PAC this year for all other sports. Next year they go to the Capitol conference. Salisbury is already in the Capitol. I don't know where Frostburg St. is conference comiitted in other sports. Galluadette is in the Capitol conf. and as far as I know they are the only three currently with football. Though Hood is supposed to be starting a football program and one other school that escapes me right now. Pat and K-Mack have broached this subject before
PA_Wesleyan,

this would be a good time for a school in the Capital to add football.  The conference could be 4 years away from a Pool A bid.

Let's look at this timeline.

Current status of football in the Mid-Atlantic Region:

Independents (ACFC):

Wesley (Capital AC)
Gallaudet (Capital AC)
Salisbury (Capital AC)

Affiliates from the ACFC:
Frostburg St (AMCC)

Potential Affiliates:
SUNY-Maritime (Skyline)

Fall 2007 -- At least one Capital AC school announces study group to investigate football with a report date of Spring 2008.

Fall 2007 -- Another mid-Atlantic school (even a  non-Capital AC) announces exploring football.

Spring 2008 -- Capital AC school announces football in Fall 2009 and hires a football coach.

Spring 2008 -- Non-Capital AC school announces football in Fall 2009 and later accepts affiliation with the Capital AC in football.

Spring 2008 -- Capital AC announces sponsoring football in Fall 2009 by 4 core members and has accepted affiliate memberships from Frostburg State, SUNY-Maritime and another non-Capital AC football-playing school.

Fall 2009 -- Capital AC has 4 members and 3 affiliate schools field first football teams in the new Capital AC.

Fall 2011 -- Capital AC has AQ.  (I think that NNA could be invited to participate.)
It's actually Villa Julie that is studying football.

There would be the fourth Capital AC school.  Add Frostburg St and SUNY-Maritime and you have a formal conference.  Add one more full member as an affiliate and you have the 7th necessarily for the AQ!

As I count the Pool B's in 2011, I get:

The UAA-4 (CMU, CWRU, Chicago, WashU)
East Region Independents (3):  Becker, Husson and Mt Ida
West Region Independents (2):  Macalester and Chapman
The UMAC-5 (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris, Northwestern MN, St Scholastica***.)  IMHO, the addition of St Sebastian Scholastica*** prompted the UMAC schools to pull out of the deal with the SLIAC.

I project these 14 schools would get one Pool B as the handbook prescribes at this time.

The "Capital AC-6" make 20 Pool B's.  Twenty Pool B's would give us 2 Pool B bids.

In 2007, The Pres AC moves a Pool B bid to Pool A. (3 Pool B bids projected.)

In 2008, the NWC moves another Pool B bid to Pool A, but the IBC dissolves.  The NAthCon teams get it back in 2010.

In 2010, the SLIAC gets a Pool A bid, taking a bid from Pool C.

In 2011, I count 25 Pool A bids, 2 Pool B bids (including the Capital AC)  and 5 Pool C bids.

The decrease in Pool A bids seems primarily to new programs coming on-line as new Pool A conferences are formed, e.g., the Pres AC, the NWC and the SLIAC, which have cobbled schools that are now or recently were in Pool B.  In the UMAC, we have 4 new full programs by 2011.  SUNY-Morrisville is absorbed into the NJAC, probably making the addition of Brockport even easier, and maybe even pre-empting any move by the SUNYAC to form its own conference.

Pat Coleman and I speculate that the NAthCon may get a Pool A bid in 2008.  The precedent for a conference getting a Pool A bid in its first season of sponsored competition is the Dixie IAC in 2001.

That would be a net switch of a Pool B bid becoming a Pool A bid, leaving 2 Pool B bids in 2008.

*** and a thank you, repete, for the proofreading correction. (+1, too.)
(Addendum dated September 10, 2007)


Castleton State (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/11/29/Castleton+adds+football), a member of the NAC, is adding football in 2009.  That gives four members of the NAC which play football.  Maine Maritime is a member of the 8-member NEFC Bogan.  If the NAC Commissioner and Presidents want to push the Football AQ for the conference, then they are in a good position to do that.  Retrieving Maine Maritime from the Bogan would be the only conference raided since the departure of affiliate Norwich from the E8.  (Norwich and Mount Ida are full members of the GNAC.) Becker, Castleton State, Husson and Maine Maritime could form the "requisite 4 core" members.  Gallaudet, SUNY Maritime, Norwich and  Mount Ida would be affiliates.  Should the NAC pursue the AQ bid, that allocation would likely come from "Pool B" bids.  In 2011, the only remaining Pool B schools under current projections would be UAA-4, Wesley, Frostburg St, Salisbury, the UMAC-5, Macalester and Chapman.  That leaves 14 schools in Pool B.  I calculated the allocation ratio for Pool B in 2007 as (190 Pool A schools divided by 22 Pool A conferences) 1:8.636.  In 2011, that would mean 1 Pool B bid for the 14 Pool B schools.  (Villa Julie would make 15 Pool B schools.)

We have not considered the impact of Norwich's departure from the Empire 8, which would be left with 6 members, and would lose its Pool A bid.  The Empire "6" would "take a Pool A bid" back to Pool B.  If the Empire "6" are considered in Pool B, then there would be 2 Pool B bids for the 20 schools.

Finally, we have not considered the impact of the "Future of Division III Legislation" in these discussions.
(Addendum originally added on November 30, 2007 and modified on December 28, 2007)
Title: Pool B--2007
Post by: Bob.Gregg on August 23, 2007, 04:47:05 pm
Not that I'll be ignorant of the facts of this group (any moreso than in previous years), but now that the Presidents Athletic Conference has an AQ, I'll not be as active in this debate...

You guys are on your own--not that me being involved in the discussions would have changed that much anyway....

Now, can the PAC get a Pool C bid....Just kidding....
Title: Re: Pool B -- 2007
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 10, 2007, 06:21:04 pm
Bob, we hope you will share your insight into Pool B this season.

As we look at the first two weekends, it looks like Wesley, CMU and a Northwest Conference team are the 3 leading contenders.

Huntingdon lost a non-region game to UW-Oshkosh, also gained some perspective of playoff-calibre teams in 2007.  (Huntingdon moves to the SLIAC in 2008, which may be a "Pool B" conference as it moves to full status in 2010.)

We can mention that Macalester is 2-0, but Carleton and GAC loom ahead.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: repete on September 10, 2007, 06:46:23 pm


As I count the Pool B's in 2011, I get:

The UAA-4 (CMU, CWRU, Chicago, WashU)
East Region Independents (3):  Becker, Husson and Mt Ida
West Region Independents (2):  Macalester and Chapman
The UMAC-5 (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris, Northwestern MN, St Sebastian.)  IMHO, the addition of St Sebastian prompted the UMAC schools to pull out of the deal with the SLIAC.

 St. Scholastica, right RT?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 13, 2007, 09:55:24 pm
Daily Dose New England Shuffle (http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/09/12/new-england-football-shuffle).

 The NAC and E8 problems on the front page (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/09/12/NAC+adds+football%3B+E8+could+lose+bid).

We have reports of Shenandoah seeking permission to join the ODAC (http://www.thedailytimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070912/SPORTS/70912030).

Shenandoah's leaving the USA South leaves the USA South one shy in all sports except football.  Does this cause the USA South to acquire the GSAC-Women and the GSAC-4 (Men) to maintain the conference AQ?

Hunitingdon and LaGrange just signed on with the SLIAC for 2008.  The SLIAC could have the AQ by 2010.  However, Huntingdon and Lagrange would love to get access to the AQ in basketball and baseball.  If they have moved to the USA South, do we have the SLIAC re-talking with the UMAC, which should have 5 football playing members by then?

The Empire-8 is sitting in the middle of all of this.  The NJAC will have grown to 10-members (all public universities with the addition of Brockport St and SUNY-Morrisville) by 2011.  Why does the NJAC want to mess up their scheduling?  It has been so hard for them to get D-III opponents in the past.  Now they would have only one non-conference game to schedule.  That is all Cortland needs, the Cortaca Jug Game.

Just as Pool B was going away, it has become very active again.

The E8 (minus ?), the North Atlantic Conference, the ACFC and maybe the SLIAC and the UMAC all might be in Pool B, along with the UAA-4

What a mess!

St Scholastica... My bad!  Thanks for the proofreading!  ;)


Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 13, 2007, 10:54:45 pm
This will work:

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/09/12/NAC+adds+football%3B+E8+could+lose+bid
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on September 17, 2007, 12:10:02 pm
Just wanted to see if this was a correct for the Pool B eligible teams for 2007. I assume the bottom four are not eligible because they are provisional status.
Frostburg
Salisbury
Wesley
Huntingdon
Gallaudet
Carnegie Mellon
Washington
Brockport  Will move to the NJAC in 2008.
Becker
Husson
Mount Ida
Plymouth State -- Competes in the NEFC Boyd
SUNY-Maritime
Chicago
Case Western
Blackburn
Principia
Rockford
Westminster
Chapman
Colorado College Competes in the SCAC
Macalester
Maranatha Baptist
Martin Luther
Nebraska Wesleyan  Competes in the NAIA for football.
Puget Sound
Pacific Lutheran
Linfield
Whitworth
Willamette
Lewis & Clark
Menlo
  last year for the NWC to be in Pool B
LaGrange

Northwestern (Minn)
Minnesota-Morris
Crown
Morrisville State
  Provisionals who are not eligible for 2007 playoffs

 
I have used my modify tool to overwrite Conrad's list for ease of use. Ralph Turner

+1 Conrad  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on September 18, 2007, 10:53:34 am
Is it still 4 Pool B bids this year or down to 3?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 18, 2007, 11:02:20 am
We don't know for sure but we presume three based on the removal of seven PAC teams and Colorado College.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on September 18, 2007, 11:45:05 am
Probably too early for this, but what the heck.

If you go undefeated you are likely to get in (assuming there aren't 4 or 5 unbeaten teams)
Here are the current unbeaten teams:

Salisbury 3-0
Husson 3-0
Wesley 3-0
Case Western 3-0
Puget Sound 2-0
Pacific Lutheran 2-0
Chapman 1-0

One loss teams still have a shot, since their will probably be only one unbeaten (maybe two or maybe none.) Salisbury & Wesley play each other. I think Husson has Springfield and St John Fisher on the schedule (probably two Losses there.) The NWC teams still have to play through the conference and will probably beat up on each other.

Here are the one-loss teams, who could still possibly get in.

Carnegie Melon 2-1
Washington (Mo) 2-1
SUNY-Maritime 2-1
Macalester 2-1
Martin Luther 2-1
Brockport 1-1
Frostburg 1-1
Gallaudet 1-1
Chicago 1-1
Linfield 1-1
Whitworth 1-1

With a lot of games to be played, you could argue that maybe one two-loss team gets in if things break right and their regional record in good enough. So these teams are on the bubble. Another loss most likely knocks them out of consideration:

Mount Ida 1-2
Rockford 1-2
Huntingdon 1-2
Westminster 1-2
Willamette 1-2
Maranatha Baptist 1-2
Lewis & Clark 0-2


Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 18, 2007, 11:48:09 am
It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on September 18, 2007, 12:25:20 pm
It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.
Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me! ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on September 18, 2007, 12:47:12 pm
It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.
Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me! ;D

Then put it off for 4 or 5 weeks. It'll be more relevent and much clearer then anyway.  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 18, 2007, 04:28:34 pm
It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.
Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me! ;D
Conrad, we fans are always happy to see other fans who like to do the research about things like playoffs, etc. :)

The Pool B starts getting active about Week #6, when most of the contenders have played several in-region games, and the bottom of Pool B has separated itself.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on September 18, 2007, 04:53:41 pm
Um Conrad!!!!

 Giving quizzes all day in class today????
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on September 19, 2007, 11:22:28 am
Um Conrad!!!!

 Giving quizzes all day in class today????

Just during my planning time.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on September 19, 2007, 12:37:35 pm
It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.
Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me! ;D

Actually, it'll make a lot less work.

Let things ride for another month.  Then, scoop the top 10 "B" eligible teams and work from there.  No sense (short of dealing with utter boredom) to even start tracking "B" teams yet.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 21, 2007, 05:27:06 pm
2007 Football Handbook (http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2007/2007_d3_football_handbook.pdf) is out.  There are 3 Pool B bids this year.  (Also, 22 Pool A bids and 7 Pool C Bids.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AUPepBand on September 22, 2007, 05:47:58 am
Okay, please forgive Pep's laziness because Pep knows the info is somewhere on this website (is there any D3 football-related info that isn't?) but how does that compare to 2006?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 22, 2007, 06:37:00 am
Okay, please forgive Pep's laziness because Pep knows the info is somewhere on this website (is there any D3 football-related info that isn't?) but how does that compare to 2006?
The Strength of Schedule calculation changes from the Quality of Wins Index (QOWI)   calculation to a more formal power index considering opponents' winning percentage (OWP) and the opponents' opponents' winning percentage (OOWP) and instructions as to how to calculated it.

Also, the Presidents AC earned its Pool A bid.

2006 D3 Football Handbook (http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2006/2006_d3_football_handbook.pdf)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on September 22, 2007, 09:42:05 am
Forgive me if I missed it, but the Handbook still doesn't tell us how many Pool Bs does it?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 22, 2007, 09:48:18 am
2007 Football Handbook (http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2007/2007_d3_football_handbook.pdf) is out.  There are 3 Pool B bids this year.  (Also, 22 Pool A bids and 7 Pool C Bids.)
Good morning, cwru70.

Three teams this year, as we suspected.

In 2008, we wonder:

if the Northwest Conference gets it Pool A (taking one from Pool B).

if the Northern Athletics Conference will earn a Pool A bid in their first season (as most of them pick up where the IBFC left off).

if the moving of Brockport State to the NJAC will impact the Pool B numbers.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 29, 2007, 10:42:40 pm
Tonight in the Northwest Conference, Willamette 33, Linfield 32.

Linfield is 0-1 in the Northwest Conference and 1-1 in the West Region games.  The Wildcats have 5 in-region games (all NWC including Pac Luth) left.  Linfield must run the table to earn a bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 29, 2007, 11:46:06 pm
Question was asked in the Dose, figure my answer would fit in the conversation here:

Quote
#  northwr87 Says:
September 28th, 2007 at 8:53 pm e

You guys said you thought Case would make the playoffs even after losing to Wash U at home. What then do you think about Wash U’s playoff chances after their win at NCC?

Quote
#  D3Keith Says:
September 29th, 2007 at 11:43 pm e

Re: Wash U.

Pool B (non-automatic bid conferences) is guaranteed three of the 32 playoff slots, then extras are grouped in with the Pool A (automatic bid conferences) runners up for the 7 at-large bids.

So to accurately project what Wash U’s chances are, we’d first have to know the strength of those two pools.

Just sticking to the three spots in B, the PAC is no longer a Pool B conference, getting its automatic bid this year. That leaves the NWC, ACFC, UAA and independents (somebody let me know if I’m forgetting anyone)

So Wash U’s resume is going to go up against that of Linfield, Wesley, Salisbury etc. for the three spots.

The Wheaton loss was bad in that case, but technically it’s a loss to a North Region team and Wash U. is in the South, which, without getting too technical, is a good thing for Wash U.

To be blunt, I’d say Wash U. has to run the table, which means winning at Carnegie Mellon and sweeping the UAA, to be able to stack up with the best of the NWC and ACFC, although Wesley and Linfield each already have one loss.

So stay tuned.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 29, 2007, 11:59:06 pm
Please remember K-Mack, Missouri and Illinois are states that are in Administrative Region #4, so that Wheaton/WashUStL game was "in-region", just like HSU-Linfield.

The Northwest Conference may be sweating a Pool B Bid, especially if Pac Luth, Willamette, Linfield and Whitworth have the usual NWC knock-down/drag-out. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 30, 2007, 12:17:52 am
Please remember K-Mack, Missouri and Illinois are states that are in Administrative Region #4, so that Wheaton/WashUStL game was "in-region", just like HSU-Linfield.

The Northwest Conference may be sweating a Pool B Bid, especially if Pac Luth, Willamette, Linfield and Whitworth have the usual NWC knock-down/drag-out. :)

Oh yeah, I forgot about how they changed the in-region rules.

Which is fine, I never liked them anyway.

Short story long, I don't get too into playoff specifics until we get down to the wire, as you can spend hours analyzing the chances of teams that go out and eliminate themselves.

Week 7 or 8, we can start seriously talking criteria, and I'll be remembering all the little details around then. In the meantime, let these guys establish their bodies of work.

If today's top 25 carnage was any indication, doesn't look like there will be 9-1 teams sitting home Selection Sunday this season.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 30, 2007, 12:18:46 am
Good news is that we mark regional games on the schedule to avoid confusion. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 30, 2007, 12:21:56 am
Good news is that we mark regional games on the schedule to avoid confusion. :)

Avoiding confusion, how's that working out, smart guy?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 30, 2007, 12:37:01 am
Great for people who check the schedule. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on September 30, 2007, 12:43:52 am
OHHH I wondered what those lil *s and .s were for :o

 Did they have to separate you two at the game today???? ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on September 30, 2007, 01:32:52 pm
The Northwest Conference may be sweating a Pool B Bid, especially if Pac Luth, Willamette, Linfield and Whitworth have the usual NWC knock-down/drag-out. :)

Ralph, it IS early mayhem in the NWC. It’s last two conference winners find themselves behind the eight ball as both Linfield and Whitworth already have a regional loss. If Whitworth, Linfield, PLU (much improved this year and scoring a boatload of points), and Willamette (who just upset Linfield) all beat up on each other to where all end up with 2 or more regional losses, then I can see where the league might be in jeopardy. But unless that happens I don’t see how at least one NWC team gets a Pool B bid. It has received at least one Pool B bid every season since joining DIII in the late 90’s, not to mention winning two championships with those bids. There is no clear cut favorite in the NWC right now, but I would be surprised if the conference’s best team at the end of the regular season did not receive a Pool B this year. Of course starting next season, we probably won't see the words "Pool B" and "NWC" in the same sentence anymore.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on September 30, 2007, 04:55:23 pm
The Northwest Conference may be sweating a Pool B Bid, especially if Pac Luth, Willamette, Linfield and Whitworth have the usual NWC knock-down/drag-out. :)

Ralph, it IS early mayhem in the NWC. It’s last two conference winners find themselves behind the eight ball as both Linfield and Whitworth already have a regional loss. If Whitworth, Linfield, PLU (much improved this year and scoring a boatload of points), and Willamette (who just upset Linfield) all beat up on each other to where all end up with 2 or more regional losses, then I can see where the league might be in jeopardy. But unless that happens I don’t see how at least one NWC team gets a Pool B bid. It has received at least one Pool B bid every season since joining DIII in the late 90’s, not to mention winning two championships with those bids. There is no clear cut favorite in the NWC right now, but I would be surprised if the conference’s best team at the end of the regular season did not receive a Pool B this year. Of course starting next season, we probably won't see the words "Pool B" and "NWC" in the same sentence anymore.


The Linfield game vs. SOU can't help...and might hurt - at the very least it hurts because it's not an opportunity for a regional D3 win. Same goes for Whitworth's game vs. Azusa (but as a tenth game, it's not as big a deal).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on September 30, 2007, 05:46:08 pm
The NWC team in the best position right now is PLU. Undefeated and plays no non-D3 teams. They also have a road win against a WIAC team. Every season is a little different. For instance, Wiillamette got in in '04 with only 5 regional wins, and finished second in the conference.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 01, 2007, 01:30:50 am
Great for people who check the schedule. :)

I beg to differ.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 01, 2007, 01:32:40 am
Guess I'm not following -- are you saying you looked at the Wash U page and didn't understand it?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 01, 2007, 01:37:12 am
Guess I'm not following -- are you saying you looked at the Wash U page and didn't understand it?

I'm saying there aren't probably five people alive who stare at the schedule pages more than I do, and if you "mark regional games on the schedule to avoid confusion," well, it's only working so well. Clearly it's not as obvious as you think it is.

I realize that's all you can do let people know, but if you're going to be a smart aleck about it, I think you know full well we can go back and forth for days.

And now back to everyone else's regularly-scheduled Pool B conversation.

Hey, how about some who's in, who's struggling fan analysis?

Salisbury
PLU
Wesley
Wash U.
CMU
Linfield
Willamette?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 01, 2007, 11:16:55 am
Thanks. Just wanted to make sure you had actually seen it and were actually talking about team schedule pages, since we kind of have schedule data all over the site.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SU Backer on October 01, 2007, 09:09:29 pm
    Keith......fan analysis on Pool B- from my ACFC perspective. I think Salisbury will have to run the table to get in. I think a loss anywhere will relegate them to a ECAC bowl bid-which would be a shame, because I feel they are one of the top 32 teams in the country. I think Wesley has earned a playoff bid, due to recent past performance,  (as long as they don't lose before then) if they would beat SU. As long as SU handles Geneva this week (no small task, good team, long bus ride, etc.), both teams' playoff hopes hinge on their matchup late this month. I feel confident that game will determine the ACFC champion as well. If Wesley loses to Salisbury I don't see how WC gets in with 2 losses. There are some very good teams that are in the mix for those Pool B bids, and a good case could be made for all of them. Question; is Salisbury also in the mix for a Pool C bid?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 01, 2007, 09:10:15 pm
Anyone not selected in Pool B is eligible for Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 01, 2007, 10:59:58 pm
Keith, Another fan's analysis for early Pool B on the West Region (NWC) teams that you mentioned:

Willamette (2-1 in-region, 2-3 overall including 2 losses to non-D3 opponents).

Would very likely need to win out and go 7-1 in-region (7-3 overall, with two of the losses against scholarship programs). Bad loss against an unranked in-region team and a good win over then #12 (now #23) ranked in-region Linfield.

Linfield (1-1 in-region, 1-2 overall, including 1 loss to a non-D3 opponent).

Would almost certainly need to win out and go 6-1 in region (one game upcoming against a non-D3 team). Good regional win against then #19 (now #21) ranked Hardin-Simmons. Horrible loss to unranked Willamette.

Whitworth (3-1 in-region and overall).

Would be sitting very good if they won out and had an 8-1 in-region record (one game upcoming against a non-D3 team). Depending on what happens with the other Pool B eligible teams, a 7-2 regional record may or may not get them in. Decent win against a WIAC member, lost to then unranked (now #25) Redlands.

PLU  (4-0 in region and overall).

Currently in the best position of any NWC team. Could sustain a loss and probably still get a Pool B bid with an 8-1 in-region record. As with Whitworth, a 7-2 in-region record would probably put them on the bubble. Have wins against the WIAC, SCIAC, and NWC.

This Saturday is PLU vs. Whitworth. Still to come: Whitworth/Willamette, Whitworth/Linfield, PLU/Linfield, and Willamette/PLU.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2007, 12:34:02 am
Keith, Another fan's analysis for early Pool B on the West Region (NWC) teams that you mentioned:

Willamette (2-1 in-region, 2-3 overall including 2 losses to non-D3 opponents which don't count).

Would very likely need to win out and go 7-1 in-region (7-3 overall, with two of the losses against scholarship programs). Bad loss against an unranked in-region team and a good win over then #12 (now #23) ranked in-region Linfield.  Linfield win loses its lustre if PLU beats them, too.

Linfield (1-1 in-region, 1-2 overall, including 1 loss to a non-D3 opponent which doesn't count).

Would almost certainly need to win out and go 6-1 in region (one game upcoming against a non-D3 team). Good regional win against then #19 (now #21) ranked Hardin-Simmons. Horrible loss to unranked Willamette.

Whitworth (3-1 in-region and overall).

Would be sitting very good if they won out and had an 8-1 in-region record (one game upcoming against a non-D3 team). Depending on what happens with the other Pool B eligible teams, a 7-2 regional record may or may not get them in. Decent win against a WIAC member, lost to then unranked (now #25) Redlands.  However, regional rankings are what count and not D3Football.com Top 25 rankings.

PLU  (4-0 in region and overall).

Currently in the best position of any NWC team. Could sustain a loss and probably still get a Pool B bid with an 8-1 in-region record. As with Whitworth, a 7-2 in-region record would probably put them on the bubble. Have wins against the WIAC, SCIAC, and NWC.

This Saturday is PLU vs. Whitworth. Still to come: Whitworth/Willamette, Whitworth/Linfield, PLU/Linfield, and Willamette/PLU.


I have thrown in my comments, too.

Remember that a Pool B team can earn a bid in Pool C.  However, the Conference champion may not get the bid this year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2007, 12:45:40 am
    Keith......fan analysis on Pool B- from my ACFC perspective. I think Salisbury will have to run the table to get in. I think a loss anywhere will relegate them to a ECAC bowl bid-which would be a shame, because I feel they are one of the top 32 teams in the country. I think Wesley has earned a playoff bid, due to recent past performance,  (as long as they don't lose before then) if they would beat SU. As long as SU handles Geneva this week (no small task, good team, long bus ride, etc.), both teams' playoff hopes hinge on their matchup late this month. I feel confident that game will determine the ACFC champion as well. If Wesley loses to Salisbury I don't see how WC gets in with 2 losses. There are some very good teams that are in the mix for those Pool B bids, and a good case could be made for all of them. Question; is Salisbury also in the mix for a Pool C bid?

SU Backer, may I jump in here?

The tourney does not select the best 32 teams.  It provides equal access to the 22 conference champions and the remaining independent teams have equal access to the tournament by having the same access ratio of bids available.

Look at it this way.  Were the ACFC a formal conference, then the Wesley-Salisbury winner would probably get the Pool bid.  The loser would fall to Pool C.

All that we are asking the Pool B teams to be is among the best 3 of the initial group of 30 some-odd Pool B candidates, and then among the next best 7 teams that have not earned an automatic bid by being a conference champion or Pool B winner.

The game versus Geneva doesn't count in the eyes of the committee, because Geneva is a first year provisional team.  The same can be said for SUNY Morrisville and St Vincent.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 02, 2007, 12:56:10 am
Ralph, the wins and losses over ranked teams were just some extra tidbits for people to chew on.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 02, 2007, 12:59:33 am
But Ralph is right -- as a self-professed Pool B analysis, it just muddies the water.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 02, 2007, 01:05:06 am
I thought that's what the playoff FAQ link was for?  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2007, 01:05:59 am
I thought that's what the playoff FAQ link was for?  :)
:D

+1  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SU Backer on October 02, 2007, 10:02:28 am
  Pat, sorry I posted. I wasn't trying to self profess anything......nor muddy any waters, just gave my opinion on how I thought things would shake out in the ACFC this year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 02, 2007, 10:05:55 am
  Pat, sorry I posted. I wasn't trying to self profess anything......nor muddy any waters, just gave my opinion on how I thought things would shake out in the ACFC this year.
Don't apologize!  We are glad to have new posters.

The job of educating ourselves on what gets into the playoffs is one of the biggest factors in the things that people post, and some of us really try to keep everyone focused on what is important relative to the playoffs.

+1,  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 02, 2007, 10:57:41 am
  Pat, sorry I posted. I wasn't trying to self profess anything......nor muddy any waters, just gave my opinion on how I thought things would shake out in the ACFC this year.

Definitely don't apologize. I wasn't referring to you!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 02, 2007, 12:04:09 pm
Pat, I can understand the “muddying the water” and I will no longer make mention of anything that does not apply to actual Pool B selection. But I think calling someone's Pool B analysis “self-professed” when that person is merely responding to a topic that someone else just asked for discussion on is a bit harsh.

Hey, how about some who's in, who's struggling fan analysis?

Salisbury
PLU
Wesley
Wash U.
CMU
Linfield
Willamette?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 02, 2007, 02:19:56 pm
You may be overreacting. Since you didn't seem interested in accepting Ralph's notes, I reiterated them. Now it appears you understand. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 02, 2007, 02:44:56 pm
I'm always interested in Ralph's notes - who isn't? Maybe you misinterpreted.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 03, 2007, 12:58:25 am
Now that everyone's settled down, you are all right. This happens all the time, we muddy the waters because we see the entire picture. Good things happen on this thread when people like Ralph and Pat post because they are trained to look at team resumes the way the committee would.

Everyone's comments are welcome ... this is where we fans (and columnists) help sort things out.

One note I should add for SU backer ... I don't think 2 losses is necessarily a death knell. It turned out to be last season, when some 9-1 teams got left at home, but the season before that, Cortland State, one of those teams that went 9-1 in 2006, got in at 8-2 in '05.

Also, I think Wilkes got in in Pool C with two losses, and I think under the 28-team bracket -- with four fewer spots available -- CNU did it once.

For Wesley and Salisbury specifically, a lot is going to depend on two things: 1) the quality of Pools B -- 3 bids -- and C -- 7 bids. 2) the results of the teams they played, or the OOWP or whatever (opponents' opponents winning percentage)

Pat or Ralph are better at clearly explaining the criteria, I usually don't get knee-deep into it until Week 8 or so. But I can say that the results of teams Wesley has played -- for instance if NC Wesleyan, DV/Widener and Montclair State all go on to win their conferences and the Wolverines lose to Salisbury and finish 8-2, they might end up with a Strength of Schedule (whatever we're calling that QoW index these days) that favors it vs. a 1-loss team who played a lot of weak teams.

Don't take that as gospel, just something to think about.

Ralph, you think the NWC champ could end up with a weaker resume than a runner-up who earns a bid? Sounds plausible, but give me a scenario.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 03, 2007, 01:06:23 am
Generally speaking, it's a good thing if a team you played makes the playoffs or comes awfully close, since results against regionally-ranked opponents is a criterion. (correct latin usage or what there?)

Whitworth would be rooting for Redlands to stay ranked, as would Wesley for Montclair State. But perhaps even more important than a team you lost to doing well is a team you beat doing well ... so for Wesley, rooting for NCW or Widener may be more important, esp. since DV cancels out since Salisbury played them too.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2007, 01:23:47 am
...

Ralph, you think the NWC champ could end up with a weaker resume than a runner-up who earns a bid? Sounds plausible, but give me a scenario.
Thanks for the post.

Football by-laws (http://www.nwcsports.com/information/governance/fbprocedures9-1-05.pdf)

I went to the by-laws only to find that the by-laws do not have a AQ clause as the ASC does. (They may consider it next year.)

I had imagined Willamette defeating Linfield and PLU but losing to Whitworth.  PLU and Linfield beat Whitworth.

Willamette 5-1 (6-2 West Region)  W- Linfield, PLU, L&C, Menlo, UPS; L- Whitworth)
PLU            5-1 (8-1 West Region) W- Linfield, Whitworth, Menlo, UPS L&C; L - Willamette
Whitworth  4-2 (6-3 West Region) W-UPS, L&C, Menlo, Willamette; L- Linfield, PLU,
Linfield       4-2  (5-2 West Region) W- Whitworth, UPS, L&C, Menlo;  L- PLU, Willamette
UPS            2-4
Menlo         1-5
L&C            0-6   

Under this scenario, PLU has the better West Region record but lost to Willamette in the head-to-head.  The lack of the AQ designation in the by-laws leaves this one open, and the NCAA can go with the team with the better in-region record.   
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2007, 01:26:05 am
...

 criterion. (correct latin usage or what there?)

...
Actually from the Greek verb, krinein, to judge or decide.  First found in English around 1631.   :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 03, 2007, 05:41:15 am
...

 criterion. (correct latin usage or what there?)

...
Actually from the Greek verb, krinein, to judge or decide.  First found in English around 1631.   :)

Thanks, Prof.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 03, 2007, 12:00:35 pm
[snip]

For Wesley and Salisbury specifically, a lot is going to depend on two things: 1) the quality of Pools B -- 3 bids -- and C -- 7 bids. 2) the results of the teams they played, or the OOWP or whatever (opponents' opponents winning percentage)

[snip]

Speaking of which, and I know after week 5 is early .... Pat, when should we expect to see how teams stack up under this new method?

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 03, 2007, 12:03:04 pm
Good question. I think we have the data in place to calculate this so perhaps after this week's games we'll do a dry run and see what it looks like.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DutchFan2004 on October 03, 2007, 03:00:32 pm
So if I digested this all correctly,  the NWC does not have to get a pool B bid.  Some other conference could take two pool B bids and leave the NWC out?  Then the West may get an extra pool C bid such as taking and extra IIAC, WIAC, and MIAC team? So that these conferences would have 6 teams instead of the 5 they have gotten before.  I am not saying that these conferences are locks for them but using it as an example.  IIAC 1, WIAC 3, MIAC 2 or something of that nature.  But with the NWC beating each other up this is a possibility is it not?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2007, 03:04:23 pm
Yes, kinda.  There is no predetermined number of bids assigned to a region.

AS Pool C and Pool B teams start to come into focus, one can see how the teams are jockeying for the at-large bids.

Please go back to the Pool B and Pool C discussions that we had in the 7th -10th weeks of 2006.  :)

Pool B discussion in 2006 (http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3830.135)

The IIAC just might get a Pool C bid this year.  I think that the chances of a Pool C bid for the WIAC are very good, if they don't knock each off.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 04, 2007, 04:57:13 pm
Agree on both IIAC and WIAC. Maybe even MIAC if Olaf knocks off the Johnnies, or even if they don't.

The thing is, it all depends on how everyone stacks up relatively at the end of the year. Some years there will be a two-loss at-large lock, some years there will be one-loss teams a TD from being undefeated who don't stack up and sit home.

I'm sure there's a way for the NWC to still get two bids, if things fall into place and the UAA and ACFC beat on each other or have upsets. You never know.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 05, 2007, 05:03:33 pm
After tomorrow's games, I'll put the skinny together on the contenders & pretenders in Pool B, as a public service to the Pool B, well, public...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 08, 2007, 02:06:09 am
whoo hoo!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 08, 2007, 11:20:03 am
Still going to be a while before the NWC sorts itself out. PLU and Linfield have a conference loss each; while Whitworth and Willamette each have one non-conference, regional D3 loss. Only two of the six total games among the four teams have been played...and there isn't one on the slate for this weekend.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: repete on October 08, 2007, 11:30:57 am
Last weekend really seemed to alter the West landscape quite a bit ...with the noteable exception of the NWC.

--WIAC carnage has started (with UWW above the fray). UWLX probably blew its season but will have a lot to say in whether the league gets a 2nd team in. I'm guessing a 2nd team might not work out. Life is tough and so is the WIAC ... (although there were some interesting comments by John O'Grady about UWW/SJU last weekend ...)

--If SJU and St. Olaf win out, it would be pretty hard to deny the Oles a spot. Bethel's stinker vs. BVU  means the Royals need to win out or get an unlikely combination of other Ole/Johnnie losses. The league's in pretty good shape for 2nd team, if Oles get it done but it's tough to see any 2-loss team getting in without the AQ.

-- IIAC could very well come down to last week of the season and if Wartburg loses that loss to the Auggies could sink them and leave Central as the lone rep.

--In the SCIAC, Oxy established itself as favorite but Cal Lutheran could shake up league. Will two teams come from here? Is Redlands a candidate if it wins out but misses the AQ?

Am I on the right path here?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 08, 2007, 11:49:05 am
Will two teams come from here? Is Redlands a candidate if it wins out but misses the AQ?

I normally wouldn't think of the SCIAC as a likely two-bid conference. But an 8-1 (well...7-1 vs. D3) Redlands team with a win at Whitworth could be fairly attractive (depending on the rest of the Pool C field, obviously). I would imagine that the Pirates final position in the NWC standings (or Regional Rankings) will impact the Bulldogs to some degree.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 08, 2007, 02:06:59 pm
Am I on the right path here?

You might be on the right path, repete, but not "here".

Other than the NWC note, none of the items listed are "Pool B" material...

But good info.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: repete on October 08, 2007, 02:43:19 pm
Yeah, Bob, I know. At times, these discussions muddle together.

I was reacting to KMack's note about possible multiple spots for  the IIAC, WIAC and MIAC. The discussion got sidetracked a bit before I came along... and ought to be in the Pool C talk.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 09, 2007, 09:00:35 pm
Sorry this took so long, fellas.  For some reason, my boss thought I actually should be working the past two days....

Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

Salisbury (6-0/5-0)  including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
At Morrisville State
Becker
At Wesley
Frostburg State


Case Western Reserve (5-0/4-0)
At CMU
St. Vincent
At Chicago
Washington (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan


Wesley (5-1/5-1) including win over Delaware Valley (24-21), Loss to Montclair State (27-26)
At Newport News
At Brockport State
Salisbury
At Morrisville State

Whitworth (4-1/4-1) including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21), Loss to Redlands, 24-12
At Lewis & Clark
At Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA)
At Willamette
Linfield
At Puget South


Pacific Lutheran (4-1/4-1) Loss to Whitworth, 28-21
Menlo
At Linfield
Lewis & Clark
Willamette


Washington (5-1/5-1) including win over North Central (16-13), Loss to Wheaton (55-14)
Chicago
At Carnegie-Mellon
At Case Western Reserve
At Greenville


Linfield (2-2/2-1) Loss to Willamette, 33-32, Loss to Western Ore., 32-20
At Southern Oregon (non-DIII)
Pacific Lutheran
At Menlo
At Whitworth
Lewis & Clark


Chicago (3-1/3-1) Loss to Elmhurst, 36-13
At Washington (MO)
Carnegie-Mellon
Case Western Reserve
At Northwestern (MN)
Eureka


Willamette (2-3/2-1) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
At Puget Sound
At Menlo
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran



Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2007, 10:55:29 pm
Sorry this took so long, fellas.  For some reason, my boss thought I actually should be working the past two days....

Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

Salisbury (6-0/5-0)  including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
At Morrisville State
Becker
At Wesley
Frostburg State


Case Western Reserve (5-0/4-0)
At CMU
St. Vincent
At Chicago
Washington (MO)

Ohio Wesleyan


Wesley (5-1/5-1) including win over Delaware Valley (24-21), Loss to Montclair State (27-26)
At Newport News
At Brockport State
Salisbury
At Morrisville State

Whitworth (4-1/4-1) including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21), Loss to Redlands, 24-12
At Lewis & Clark
At Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA)
At Willamette
Linfield
At Puget South


Pacific Lutheran (4-1/4-1) Loss to Whitworth, 28-21
Menlo
At Linfield
Lewis & Clark
Willamette


Washington (5-1/5-1) including win over North Central (16-13), Loss to Wheaton (55-14)
Chicago
At Carnegie-Mellon
At Case Western Reserve
At Greenville


Linfield (2-2/2-1) Loss to Willamette, 33-32, Loss to Western Ore., 32-20
At Southern Oregon (non-DIII)
Pacific Lutheran
At Menlo
At Whitworth
Lewis & Clark


Chicago (3-1/3-1) Loss to Elmhurst, 36-13
At Washington (MO)
Carnegie-Mellon
Case Western Reserve
At Northwestern (MN)
Eureka




Games amongst "Pool B contenders" are in italics!

Thanks Bob!  +1 :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 09, 2007, 11:35:47 pm
I'm trying to figure out who keeps smiting Bob.  Whoever it is is one persistent SOB who probably needs to get a life.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 10, 2007, 10:38:35 am
At this point, Willamette still has only one D3 loss. Wins over Linfield and Cal Lutheran with a loss to the Gusties. (Other losses to NAIA Southern Oregon and NCAA D2 Western Oregon). They don't look real strong at 2-3, but if the committee truly views that as 2-1 and they can play their way past Whitworth and PLU (both are home games for the Bearcats) then they are probably in at 7-1, right?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 10, 2007, 11:35:19 am
d-train,

You're thoughts on Willamette are right on.  They are part of the "rest of my list" (that's part of the reason I didn't do this until after 10/15 last year).

Willamette (2-3/2-1) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
At Puget Sound
At Menlo
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran


Here's the rest of the "list"
Need lots of help:
Husson (4-2)
Martin Luther (4-2)
Rockford (4-2)

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 10, 2007, 12:00:15 pm
d-train,

You're thoughts on Willamette are right on.  They are part of the "rest of my list" (that's part of the reason I didn't do this until after 10/15 last year).

Willamette (2-3/2-1) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
At Puget Sound
At Menlo
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran


Here's the rest of the "list"
Need lots of help:
Husson (4-2)
Martin Luther (4-2)
Rockford (4-2)



Gotcha, thanks. Oh...and +k for the work you've put into this.

I think Willamette will win the next two weeks (and beat L&C), so they'll be floating around on the bubble for a bit longer. Are the two losses for those other three teams all D3 losses?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 10, 2007, 04:10:26 pm
Bob's excellent summary gives the impression that the NWC winner stands a good chance of getting one of the three Pool B bids.

Also, please remember that Pool B is eligible for Pool C bids after the Pool B's have been designated.

I appreciate his posting this after week #6.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 10, 2007, 04:59:04 pm
The "B" list looks pretty strong, especially since they're fighting for three spots now.

I can see, perhaps, the winner of the UAA, NWC and Salisbury / Wesley getting the bids, whilst the NWC and Salisbury may have a legit "C" chance if they don't get the "B".
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 10, 2007, 06:17:57 pm
+K, too Bob

BTW is there any signifigance to the order teams are listed?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 10, 2007, 07:52:08 pm
The "list" that I've posted includes all of the teams I think are in the running for the three Pool B spots, and, failing there, in the Pool C group.

The current list isn't in any real order.  Give me a week or so, maybe two and I'll start ranking them.

Thanks for the +K's.  I hadn't really paid attention to that stuff, but then realized I was -15 or something.  I don't usually get into issues with smackoffs who would do that.  Maybe there's a bunch of people out there who think I don't know what I'm writing about....oh well.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: footballfan413 on October 11, 2007, 08:59:09 am

Thanks for the +K's.  I hadn't really paid attention to that stuff, but then realized I was -15 or something.  I don't usually get into issues with smackoffs who would do that.  Maybe there's a bunch of people out there who think I don't know what I'm writing about....oh well.

Well, I just got rid of that nasty little negative sign in front of your karma number.  Let's hope it stays away!   ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 12, 2007, 03:20:47 pm
This week impactful Pool B matchups:
Case Western Reserve (5-0/4-0)
At CMU

Wesley (5-1/5-1)
At Newport News

Whitworth (4-1/4-1)
At Lewis & Clark

Pacific Lutheran (4-1/4-1)
Menlo

Washington (5-1/5-1)
Chicago

Chicago (3-1/3-1)
At Washington (MO)

Willamette (2-3/2-1)
At Puget Sound
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: njlincolnlion on October 12, 2007, 03:30:01 pm
Bob.Gregg:

Salisbury could go undefeated with a win over Wesley, or Wesley & Salisbury could finish the year with one loss each.  If Salisbury beats Wesley, I don't know if two losses will get Wesley in.

I agree with smedindy, take on how things could unfold.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 12, 2007, 03:48:33 pm
nj,

I didn't say a two-loss Wesley team would get in.

I specifically said the "B" list wasn't ranked yet, and wouldn't be for another week, maybe two.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: njlincolnlion on October 12, 2007, 03:56:34 pm
Bob.Gregg:

What do you think will happen if both Wesley and Salisbury finish the season with one loss?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 12, 2007, 04:03:31 pm
All depends on whatever else happens.

I wouldn't think Salisbury's staff would sleep all that well that Saturday night.

In a week or two, I'll get into more of what might happen if this or that occurs.

IT'S TOO EARLY!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Knightstalker on October 12, 2007, 08:36:49 pm
NJLL, remember that Salisbury and Wesley are also eligible for a Pool C bid if they do not receive a Pool B bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: njlincolnlion on October 13, 2007, 08:46:59 am
Knightstalker:

How have you been?  I agree that Salisbury and Wesley have possibly shots with a one loss record.  Right now, the pressure is on Wesley to win out.

I know this is the wrong board, but how do the Gothic Knights look for the upcoming season in B-Ball?  We're all going to miss Coach Brown.  Btw, Ive seen alot of NJCU commecials on TV lately, great job by the PR department.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2007, 08:43:06 pm
This week impactful Pool B matchups:
Case Western Reserve (5-0/4-0 6-0/5-0)
At CMU 20-17 OT over CMU

Salisbury (6-0/5-0 7-0/5-0)  including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
Defeated Morrisville State, 50-7


Wesley (5-1/5-1 6-1/5-1)
At Newport News  Wesley wins 50-7

Whitworth (4-1/4-1 5-1/5-1)
At Lewis & Clark Whitworth wins 48-7.

Pacific Lutheran (4-1/4-1)
Menlo

Washington (5-1/5-1 6-1/6-1)
Chicago WUStL 31-10 over Chicago


Chicago (3-1/3-1 3-2/3-2)
At Washington (MO) Lost to WUStL 10-31

Willamette (2-3/2-1 2-4/2-2)
At Puget Sound Lost to UPS 7-13

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 13, 2007, 09:18:38 pm
If Case wins out, will that be enough?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2007, 09:42:45 pm
If Case wins out, will that be enough?
Yes, for one of the Pool B's.

How do you refuse a bid to an undefeated team?  What else could the team do?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 13, 2007, 10:19:38 pm
Especially since that would mean wins over a team that was in the Top 25 earlier (CMU) and a team (WUStL) that beat a Top 25 team (NCC), which came close against a Top 5 team (Wheaton).

Since the MIAA leaders have 3 losses each, the Spartans could even be a 7 seed not an 8.  Capital or Wheaton instead of MUC?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 13, 2007, 10:24:32 pm
I know, but the NCAA isn't obligated though.

I can see them taking Wesley / Salisbury / PLU as "B's". But yeah, I guess Case would be a pretty sure "C" perhaps.

If I amend that question, would a one loss UAA team make it in "B"? "C"? Or would they THEN be SOL?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2007, 10:28:38 pm
I know, but the NCAA isn't obligated though.

I can see them taking Wesley / Salisbury / PLU as "B's". But yeah, I guess Case would be a pretty sure "C" perhaps.

If I amend that question, would a one loss UAA team make it in "B"? "C"? Or would they THEN be SOL?
That is when we get to look at the impact of the OOWP and OWP.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 13, 2007, 10:33:45 pm
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Salisbury (7-0/5-0)  including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
Becker
At Wesley
Frostburg State


2.  Case Western Reserve (6-0/5-0)
St. Vincent
At Chicago
Washington (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan


3.  Whitworth (5-1/5-1) including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21), Loss to Redlands, 24-12
At Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA)
At Willamette
Linfield
At Puget South


4.  Wesley (6-1/5-1) including win over Delaware Valley (24-21), Loss to Montclair State (27-26)
At Brockport State
Salisbury
At Morrisville State

5.  Pacific Lutheran (5-1/5-1) Loss to Whitworth, 28-21
At Linfield
Lewis & Clark
Willamette


6.  Washington (6-1/6-1) including win over North Central (16-13), Loss to Wheaton (55-14)
At Carnegie-Mellon
At Case Western Reserve
At Greenville


7.  Linfield (3-2/2-1) Loss to Willamette, 33-32, Loss to Western Ore., 32-20
Pacific Lutheran
At Menlo
At Whitworth
Lewis & Clark



Bubble (Need lots of help):
Husson (5-2)
Martin Luther (5-2)
Rockford (5-2)


Bubble at best:
Chicago (3-2/3-2) Loss to Elmhurst, 36-13, loss to Washington (MO) 31-10
Carnegie-Mellon
Case Western Reserve
At Northwestern (MN)
Eureka


Willamette (2-4/2-2) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss to Puget Sound, 13-7, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
At Menlo
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 13, 2007, 10:34:16 pm
IMHO WUStL with only a loss to Wheaton could still be a B or C if they win out.

Yes I know how much geography can mean to the NCAA.  Hence "could" not "should."  Short bus ride from Cleveland to Allaince.

I really don't want to think too much about that until after 11-3.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 14, 2007, 02:52:17 am
over a team that was in the Top 25 earlier (CMU)

This isn't overly relevant to anything, and certainly not to the selection committee.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 14, 2007, 08:49:44 am
True, and CMU's schedule only slightly helps the OOWP.  At least as I understand that computation.

And wouldn't an undefeated team be refused a B bid if it comes down to more than three teams with in-region undefeated records?  But I figure that if that happened they would fare well in Pool C where it is unlikely any teams would have undefeatead in-region records (The exception being undefeated conf co-champs).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: religion_major on October 14, 2007, 07:11:07 pm
True, and CMU's schedule only slightly helps the OOWP.  At least as I understand that computation.

And wouldn't an undefeated team be refused a B bid if it comes down to more than three teams with in-region undefeated records?  But I figure that if that happened they would fare well in Pool C where it is unlikely any teams would have undefeatead in-region records (The exception being undefeated conf co-champs).

I think in that case the overall undefeated team would get the nod on secondary criteria (total d3 record) unless their OWP and OOWP were significantly worse than the team with a loss out of region.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 14, 2007, 08:18:47 pm
Let's be clear about, and finished with, this:

IF THIS Case Western Reserve University team wins out, they get one of the three Pool B bids.

Unless I'm missing something significant...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 14, 2007, 08:38:10 pm
Pool B Impact Games this week:
1.  Salisbury (7-0/5-0) vs. Becker (1-5)

2.  Case Western Reserve (6-0/5-0) vs. St. Vincent (0-6)

3.  Whitworth (5-1/5-1) at Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA) (3-5)

4.  Wesley (6-1/5-1) at Brockport State (3-3)

5.  Pacific Lutheran (5-1/5-1) at 7.  Linfield (3-2/2-1)

Bubble (Need lots of help):
Husson (5-2) at Alfred (6-0)

Martin Luther (5-2) at Rockford (5-2)

Bubble at best:
Chicago (3-2/3-2) vs. Carnegie-Mellon (2-4)

Willamette (2-4/2-2) at Menlo (1-6)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 14, 2007, 09:25:43 pm
Last weekend really seemed to alter the West landscape quite a bit ...with the noteable exception of the NWC.

--WIAC carnage has started (with UWW above the fray). UWLX probably blew its season but will have a lot to say in whether the league gets a 2nd team in. I'm guessing a 2nd team might not work out. Life is tough and so is the WIAC ... (although there were some interesting comments by John O'Grady about UWW/SJU last weekend ...)

--If SJU and St. Olaf win out, it would be pretty hard to deny the Oles a spot. Bethel's stinker vs. BVU  means the Royals need to win out or get an unlikely combination of other Ole/Johnnie losses. The league's in pretty good shape for 2nd team, if Oles get it done but it's tough to see any 2-loss team getting in without the AQ.

-- IIAC could very well come down to last week of the season and if Wartburg loses that loss to the Auggies could sink them and leave Central as the lone rep.

--In the SCIAC, Oxy established itself as favorite but Cal Lutheran could shake up league. Will two teams come from here? Is Redlands a candidate if it wins out but misses the AQ?

Am I on the right path here?

I normally wouldn't think of the SCIAC as a likely two-bid conference. But an 8-1 (well...7-1 vs. D3) Redlands team with a win at Whitworth could be fairly attractive (depending on the rest of the Pool C field, obviously). I would imagine that the Pirates final position in the NWC standings (or Regional Rankings) will impact the Bulldogs to some degree.

I agree with both of you for the most part.

Redlands' win over Whitworth not only gives them a nod over Whitworth if they are battling for the same spot, but it would be a huge help in the playoff criteria wins over regionally-ranked oppoents, if the Pirates stay regionally ranked.

Agree that two Ls in Pool C is going to be tough. Agree about Bethel and UW-Lax and maybe Wartburg blowing their chances with bad losses.

And this commentary is all a week old, isn't it?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 14, 2007, 09:27:30 pm
Yeah, Bob, I know. At times, these discussions muddle together.

I was reacting to KMack's note about possible multiple spots for  the IIAC, WIAC and MIAC. The discussion got sidetracked a bit before I came along... and ought to be in the Pool C talk.

Yeah!

(Even though Bob is right, since it's my fault we got sidetracked, I have to get repete's back)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 14, 2007, 09:33:17 pm
d-train,

You're thoughts on Willamette are right on.  They are part of the "rest of my list" (that's part of the reason I didn't do this until after 10/15 last year).

Willamette (2-3/2-1) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
At Puget Sound
At Menlo
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran

The thing about the non-division Ls is that they don't hurt, but they also don't help, and it looks like they could've used a couple more wins over D3s with decent records to offset L&C, Menlo and Gustavus, who all look like they will be hurting them in OWP and OOWP.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: repete on October 14, 2007, 10:15:57 pm
Thanks!

.... although it's not like I've never headed off on detours all of my own making  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 15, 2007, 02:17:38 pm
and it looks like they could've used a couple more wins over D3s with decent records to offset L&C, Menlo and Gustavus, who all look like they will be hurting them in OWP and OOWP.

I'm sure they would love to have more D3's on the schedule (Linfield as well). But there are major budget issues in trading a local games (Southern and Western Oregon) for additional plane trips...not to mention finding a willing home-and-home partner who can absorb those costs as well. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 16, 2007, 02:15:12 am
and it looks like they could've used a couple more wins over D3s with decent records to offset L&C, Menlo and Gustavus, who all look like they will be hurting them in OWP and OOWP.

I'm sure they would love to have more D3's on the schedule (Linfield as well). But there are major budget issues in trading a local games (Southern and Western Oregon) for additional plane trips...not to mention finding a willing home-and-home partner who can absorb those costs as well. 

Agreed.

Which is why you folks need to talk to those (insert slightly derogatory term here) over at Pacific and George Fox and get them on the gridiron!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: northwr87 on October 16, 2007, 03:14:08 pm
I noticed last week that the QWP was taken off of the home page, I was just wondering when the OWP/OOWP numbers were going ot be posted? They might help this pool B discussion get a little clearer.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 16, 2007, 03:24:07 pm
actually, northwr87, at this moment in time, those numbers will muddy the waters, not make them clearer.

The passage of two weeks time (through games of Oct. 27th) will clear the waters, and make those numbers meaningful.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 16, 2007, 04:17:38 pm
We hope to have them this week, regardless. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 18, 2007, 11:35:49 am
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule

Strength of Schedule numbers are out.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: billrt66 on October 18, 2007, 02:15:05 pm
K Mack or Pat:  Does Pool B or Pool C assignment come from a geographical origin or is it quality of wins, strength of schedule, conference strength, etc.? In addition, are conference AQs always Pool A?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2007, 02:27:13 pm
K Mack or Pat:  Does Pool B or Pool C assignment come from a geographical origin or is it quality of wins, strength of schedule, conference strength, etc.? In addition, are conference AQs always Pool A?

The 2007 Division III Football Championship Handbook (http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2007/2007_d3_football_handbook.pdf)

Pools B and C are selected nationally on regional criteria.

Yes, the Conference AQ is the Pool A bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 18, 2007, 10:53:22 pm
Got an e-mail from a Wash. U. parent today. Figured the discussion belonged here, so here's his e-mail (edited because I didn't ask first if I could post it with identifying info in there) and my response:

-------------- Original message --------------
From: <amcsparin@kc.rr.com>

Hi Keith!

First off, what a totally awesome web site! We've used it constantly for the last three years. Our son, [name withheld] is a senior [position withheld] at Washington University. He came up through very successful football programs in youth and high school here in [city withheld]. Missouri State Semis every year and finally a State Championship his senior year. He had several schools available to play football, but having the opportunity to even get into Wash. U. was a no-brainer for pursuing his education. But, he's been missing the excitement of playoff football.

So, the question. After their win up at North Central, they're 6-1 going into a bye week and way down inside all of our consciences is that remote possibility of them getting an invite to the playoffs. What goes into the decision to invite these small conference schools? Where can we find out how the brakets are set up? We've watched the National Championship the last couple of years on ESPN, but we're not exactly sure how those two teams get there? Part of the fun in high school was always knowing exactly where you stood because it went down the same way every year. Conference, Districts, Qtr. Finals, Semis, then State. We know we need to go to Case and Carnegie and win those games. But, is there anything else we can watch for?

Anyway, we'll look forward to getting some advice from you and learning how the D-III playoff system works. Thanks again for a great web site and keep up the good work!

[name withheld]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
[Name],
 Thanks for the message. I will reply in plain English, but I'll also include some links which will help you explore further. The first of those is D3football.com's Playoff FAQ, followed by the Pool B board on the message board (that'll be good to follow going forward as the discussion is updated constantly, reflecting each week's results) and the NCAA handbook, which outlines the criteria for playoff selection:

D3football.com's Playoff FAQ
http://www.d3football.com/faq.php?question&category=Playoffs

Pool B message board on Post Patterns, under General Football:
http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3830.330

NCAA handbook
http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2007/2007_d3_football_handbook.pdf

OK,
 So basically, here's how it breaks down. Of the 32 bids, 22 automatically go to winners of certain conferences, typically those who have seven or more teams. That's Pool A. Three bids go to Pool B, or teams from non-automatic bid conferences. Lastly, Pool C takes seven more teams who have not qualified in the other two pools.

 You are Pool B. Where Wash. U. and the UAA is concerned, there is no automatic bid, so you are competing with teams from the Northwest Conference (hasn't had seven teams long enough to earn its automatic bid), the Atlantic Central Football Conference (5 teams) and independents. You are competing for one of three guaranteed slots, but if you grade out well enough on the criteria, Wash. U. could earn one of the seven Pool C (at-large) spots as well.

 So specifically, to answer the question, here are some things to watch for.

 Your basic criteria are record, strength of schedule, head to head and common opponent results vs. other teams being considered, results vs. regionally ranked teams (mostly other playoff teams and ones being considered). There's a caveat for in-region competition, but for right now, let's not confuse you with that.

- Win the final three. A loss doesn't necessarily eliminate you, and wins don't guarantee anything, but obviously the more the better.
- Keep an eye on Wesley, Salisbury, Case and the Northwest Conference. Those teams are going to be your main competition for the three Pool B slots. Holding the h2h over Case would be nice. Also, root for Salisbury to stay undefeated and Wesley to pick up their second loss when those two teams meet in Week 9.
- Root for Wheaton and North Central and everyone else you've played to win as many games as possible. This helps your strength of schedule (referred to on the boards as OWP/OOWP)

Basically, you want to be among the top three out of the UAA/ACFC/NWC pool. There's no rule that says any conference has to get any amount of Pool B bids, they just have to give out three. So the UAA could get two or zero. Two UAAs could go if you and Case were 9-1 and zero NWCs could go. In theory.

Failing that, you want your 9-1 or 8-2 record to stack up favorably against the rest of the country's runners-up when they select the seven Pool C teams.

There's a little more to it (secondary criteria, for instance, if the primary criteria doesn't solve it), but for now, that should have you looking at the right things.

I hope that makes sense. I am going to post this on the Pool B board, sans name & indentification. The responses generated there should help guide you too.
--
Keith McMillan
D3football.com National Columnist
Keith@D3football.com

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 18, 2007, 11:09:27 pm
(as an aide to K-Mack's post)

Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Salisbury (7-0/5-0)  including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
Becker
At Wesley
Frostburg State


2.  Case Western Reserve (6-0/5-0)
St. Vincent
At Chicago
Washington (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan


3.  Whitworth (5-1/5-1) including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21), Loss to Redlands, 24-12
At Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA)
At Willamette
Linfield
At Puget South


4.  Wesley (6-1/5-1) including win over Delaware Valley (24-21), Loss to Montclair State (27-26)
At Brockport State
Salisbury
At Morrisville State

5.  Pacific Lutheran (5-1/5-1) Loss to Whitworth, 28-21
At Linfield
Lewis & Clark
Willamette


6.  Washington (6-1/6-1) including win over North Central (16-13), Loss to Wheaton (55-14)
At Carnegie-Mellon
At Case Western Reserve
At Greenville


7.  Linfield (3-2/2-1) Loss to Willamette, 33-32, Loss to Western Ore., 32-20
Pacific Lutheran
At Menlo
At Whitworth
Lewis & Clark



Bubble (Need lots of help):
Husson (5-2)
Martin Luther (5-2)
Rockford (5-2)


Bubble at best:
Chicago (3-2/3-2) Loss to Elmhurst, 36-13, loss to Washington (MO) 31-10
Carnegie-Mellon
Case Western Reserve
At Northwestern (MN)
Eureka


Willamette (2-4/2-2) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss to Puget Sound, 13-7, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
At Menlo
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2007, 11:29:37 pm
Great Post, K-Mack!  Right on!  :)  +1!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 18, 2007, 11:29:58 pm
(as an aide to K-Mack's post)

+1 k
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 20, 2007, 07:04:27 pm
Salisbury wins
Case Western Reserve wins
Whitworth--loss to NAIA Azusa Pacific (38-34)
Wesley wins
Pacific Lutheran, loses, likely OUT of contention (losses to Whitworth, Linfield)
Washington idle
Linfield wins

Husson loses, out of contention
Martin Luther loses, out of contention
Rockford wins, stay on bubble

Chicago loses, out of contention
Willamette--wins, stays bubbly
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 20, 2007, 10:48:55 pm
With Capital losing, there could be a greater chance that a "B" steals a "C". Would a two-loss Wesley team make it? If Case loses to Wash U., do both get in?

Only time will tell?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 21, 2007, 12:08:05 am
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Salisbury (8-0 / 4-0)  including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
At Wesley
Frostburg State


2.  Case Western Reserve (7-0 / 5-0)
At Chicago
Washington (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan


3.  Wesley (7-1 / 5-1) including win over Delaware Valley (24-21), Loss to Montclair State (27-26)
Salisbury
At Morrisville State

4.  Whitworth (5-2 / 5-1) including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21), Loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34
At Willamette
Linfield
At Puget South


5.  Washington (6-1 / 6-1) including win over North Central (16-13), Loss to Wheaton (55-14)
At Carnegie-Mellon
At Case Western Reserve
At Greenville


6.  Linfield (4-2 / 3-1) Loss to Willamette, 33-32, Loss to Western Ore., 32-20
At Menlo
At Whitworth
Lewis & Clark



Bubble (Need lots of help):
Rockford (6-2)

Bubble at best:
Willamette (3-4 / 3-2) Loss to Gustavus Adolphus, 34-25, Loss to Puget Sound, 13-7, Loss Western Oregon, 23-9 (non-DIII), Loss to Southern Oregon, 34-27 (non-NCAA)
Whitworth
At Lewis & Clark
Pacific Lutheran


Pacific Lutheran (5-2 / 5-2) Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0
Lewis & Clark
Willamette

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 21, 2007, 12:40:30 am
With Capital losing, there could be a greater chance that a "B" steals a "C". Would a two-loss Wesley team make it? If Case loses to Wash U., do both get in?

One thing Wesley has going for it is its schedule. Montclair got pummeled today, which doesn't help, but say they didn't and they won the NJAC (or somehow still do)

They will have played possible playoff teams in Widener/Delaware Valley (MAC Champ and runner-up?), N.C. Wesleyan (USAC champ?), Salisbury (ACFC champ?) and Montclair (NJAC champ?) ... which would both help their OWP and OOWP, and also anecdotally make a really good case for them, even with a second loss.

For Wesley fans, to be safe, I'd root for a W over Salisbury (as though they weren't going to until I told them that), but they'd have a good a case as any at-large if those teams keep winning.

Capital is one of the few teams who isn't "done" with its second loss, but there was a year with the second-tier OACs all picked each other off and none made it. '04 maybe?

Case and Wash U., in theory, both at 9-1 would have a shot.

It's hard to believe there wouldn't be enough runners-up from powerful leagues to bump one of them, but with the craziness in the WIAC and OAC and ASC, they made grade out better.

Wash U. might actually edge North Central by virtue of the h2h win.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 21, 2007, 12:15:27 pm
Pool B Impact Games this week:

1. Salisbury (8-0 / 4-0) at 3. Wesley (7-1 / 5-1)

2. Case Western Reserve (7-0 / 5-0) at Chicago (3-3)

4. Whitworth (5-2 / 5-1) at Willamette (3-4 / 3-2)

5. Washington (6-1 / 6-1) at Carnegie-Mellon (3-4)

6. Linfield (4-2 / 3-1) at Menlo (1-7)


Bubble:  Rockford (5-2) vs. Northwestern College (MN) (6-2), Friday at Metrodome

Bubble at best:  Pacific Lutheran (5-2 / 5-2) vs. Lewis & Clark (0-6)

Bubble at best:  Willamette (3-4 / 3-2) vs. 4. Whitworth (5-2 / 5-1)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: altor on October 21, 2007, 08:24:18 pm
Salisbury (8-0 / 6-0)
This one has been confusing me.  Their schedule page (http://www.d3football.com/school_info.php?year=2007&school=Salisbury) only shows 4 in-region games so far, yet they are consistently shown in this thread as having more than that.  The OWP/OOWP (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule) page also only a 3-0 record (page posted before their win on Saturday).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 21, 2007, 08:33:40 pm
 Sep. 1      1:00 PM      Albright  •      W, 42-12      (In-region, by 200-mile radius rule)
      
Sep. 8    1:00 PM    at Brockport State *    W, 40-14    (Not in-region...The ACFC is not an officially recognized conference.  Brockport St does not qualify as in-region for any of the other 3 definitions.  This is one reason that Brockport benefits from moving to the NJAC.)
      
Sep. 15    1:00 PM    at Christopher Newport •    W, 35-21    (In-region, South Region opponent)
      
Sep. 22    1:00 PM    Delaware Valley •    W, 36-16    (In-region, 200-mile radius rule)
      
Sep. 29    1:00 PM    Newport News *    W, 62-14    (Not in-region.  NNA is not a full member of the NCAA, atho' games against NNA  are recognized for the sake of records, stats, etc.)
      
Oct. 6    6:00 PM    at Geneva    W, 20-7    (Not in-region; first year provisional)
      
Oct. 13    1:00 PM    at Morrisville State    W, 56-20 (Not in-region, second year provisional)   
      
Oct. 20    1:00 PM    Becker •    W, 79-20    (In-Region, by definition of Adminstrative Region 1)


Great pick-up, altor!  That's another one!  +1!  :)
   
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 21, 2007, 08:35:06 pm
Editing as you type...

My apologies.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: altor on October 21, 2007, 09:07:17 pm
Thanks Ralph.  I thought conference games were included as in-region, which is why it confused me that Brockport wasn't counted.  I did know that Newport News wouldn't count though.

No apologies needed, Bob.  I only noticed because I took a closer look at Salisbury's schedule the other night in the OWP/OOWP conversation on the Pool C thread a couple days ago.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 27, 2007, 10:46:15 pm
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Case Western Reserve (8-0 / 6-0)
          Nov. 3  Washington (MO)
          Nov. 10  Ohio Wesleyan


2.  Wesley (8-1 / 6-1)
including win over Delaware Valley (24-21),
Win over NC Wesleyan
Win over Widener
win over Salisbury (20-13),
Loss to Montclair State (27-26)

          Nov. 10  At Morrisville State

3.  Whitworth (6-2 / 6-1)
including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21),
Loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34

          Nov. 3  Linfield
          Nov. 10  At Puget South


4.  Salisbury (8-1 / 4-1)
including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
Loss at Wesley, 20-13

          Nov. 10  Frostburg State

5.  Linfield (5-2 / 4-1)
Loss to Willamette, 33-32,
Loss to Western Ore., 32-20 (non-DIII)

          Nov. 3  At Whitworth
          Nov. 10  Lewis & Clark



Pool B Bubble (Need lots of help):
Washington (MO) (6-2 / 6-2)
including win over North Central (16-13),
Loss to Wheaton (55-14),
Loss to Carnegie-Mellon (18-13)

          Nov. 3  At Case Western Reserve
          Nov. 10  At Greenville


Pacific Lutheran (6-2 / 6-2)
Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0

          Nov. 10  Willamette
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 27, 2007, 10:54:16 pm
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Case Western Reserve (8-0 / 6-0)
Nov. 3  Washington (MO)
Nov. 10  Ohio Wesleyan


2.  Wesley (8-1 / 6-1)
including win over Delaware Valley (24-21),
win over Salisbury (20-13),
Loss to Montclair State (27-26)

Nov. 10  At Morrisville State

3.  Whitworth (6-2 / 6-1)
including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21),
Loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34

Nov. 3  Linfield
Nov. 10  At Puget South


4.  Salisbury (8-1 / 4-1)
including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
Loss at Wesley, 20-13

Nov. 10  Frostburg State

5.  Linfield (5-2 / 4-1)
Loss to Willamette, 33-32,
Loss to Western Ore., 32-20 (non-DIII)

Nov. 3  At Whitworth
Nov. 10  Lewis & Clark



Pool B Bubble (Need lots of help):
Washington (MO) (6-2 / 6-2)
including win over North Central (16-13),
Loss to Wheaton (55-14),
Loss to Carnegie-Mellon (18-13)

Nov. 3  At Case Western Reserve
Nov. 10  At Greenville


Pacific Lutheran (5-2 / 5-2)
Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0

Nov. 3  Lewis & Clark
Nov. 10  Willamette


Bob
 Don't you think that Wesleys wins over Widener & NCW are more important now than the Del Val win?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2007, 11:04:32 pm
Whitworth's OT win over Willamette is a very big win.

I think that the NWC gets one bid (either a B or a C), and it goes to the Linfield - Whitworth winner.

Wesley's season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Salisbury has the rivalry game with Frostburg on the 10th.  I would not be surprised to see Salisbury as high as 3rd in the South Region Rankings next week.  The lack of in-region games really hurts Salisbury.  I hope that they can get a decent South Region schedule next year.

Case can run the table and get a bid.  There is very little doubt about that.

With all of the defeats that we saw in the South today, I think that any one loss team from a major conference gets a bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 27, 2007, 11:27:15 pm
Bob
 Don't you think that Wesleys wins over Widener & NCW are more important now than the Del Val win?

I do.  I just didn't get around to writing all of that, or anybody else's "including wins" from the past two weeks...

Checking scores, watching World Series, Ohio State-Penn State, the Penguins and attending a wedding reception, not to mention trying to help my 12-year-old son understand why W&J's playoff berth would be different this year as compared to the Pool B's madness he's endured over the past 6 or so seasons.

As they say on PTI (knuckleheads), I'll try to do better the next time!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: speedybigboy on October 28, 2007, 12:26:32 am
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Case Western Reserve (8-0 / 6-0)
          Nov. 3  Washington (MO)
          Nov. 10  Ohio Wesleyan


2.  Wesley (8-1 / 6-1)
including win over Delaware Valley (24-21),
win over Salisbury (20-13),
Loss to Montclair State (27-26)

          Nov. 10  At Morrisville State

3.  Whitworth (6-2 / 6-1)
including win over Pac.Lutheran (28-21),
Loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34

          Nov. 3  Linfield
          Nov. 10  At Puget South


4.  Salisbury (8-1 / 4-1)
including win over Christopher Newport (35-21)
Loss at Wesley, 20-13

          Nov. 10  Frostburg State

5.  Linfield (5-2 / 4-1)
Loss to Willamette, 33-32,
Loss to Western Ore., 32-20 (non-DIII)

          Nov. 3  At Whitworth
          Nov. 10  Lewis & Clark



Pool B Bubble (Need lots of help):
Washington (MO) (6-2 / 6-2)
including win over North Central (16-13),
Loss to Wheaton (55-14),
Loss to Carnegie-Mellon (18-13)

          Nov. 3  At Case Western Reserve
          Nov. 10  At Greenville


Pacific Lutheran (5-2 / 5-2)
Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0

          Nov. 3  Lewis & Clark
          Nov. 10  Willamette


Bob, minor point, PLU vs. Lewis & Clark was today and my Lutes won.   :)  Thanks for having them on the bubble (at best) but I don't see any way for them to get in.  :(  THanks for your work on this.

I look down at the posts for a minute or so and the Red Sox get another 3 runs??
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 28, 2007, 12:33:26 am
Speedy,

thanks for the note.  GO RED SOX! (that's for my boy who loves Big Papi--got to meet him at the All-Star festivities in Pittsburgh last year).

Correction made.

6-2 with one to play...don't give up the ship.  Tough to make it, but many stranger things have happend....



PA-wesleyfan...got you wins listed.  Guess I should just put a schedule link in for each team too, along with a link to their OWP, and their OOWP, not to mention the conference standings....j/k with you...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: speedybigboy on October 28, 2007, 12:40:17 am

Wesley's season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Ralph, I don't know much about the national scene in d3 but I'm just curious about why you feel Wesley is done even though they beat Salisbury?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 28, 2007, 12:46:41 am
Wesley's REGULAR season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Ralph meant REGULAR season.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 28, 2007, 12:48:42 am
Probably 4 B's make it, stealing a C, unless Case stumbles against Wash U. and OWU. Even with one loss, Case may squeak in.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: speedybigboy on October 28, 2007, 12:50:52 am
Wesley's REGULAR season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Ralph meant REGULAR season.


oh, okay, after I posted I thought maybe that was what he meant

thanks

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 28, 2007, 01:01:41 am
Wesley's REGULAR season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Ralph meant REGULAR season.

Yes.  Bob has my back!

On the ASC board, I guessed that South Bracket would look like this (after 9 weeks of results):

#1  W&J
#8  Muhlenberg

#4 Salisbury
#6 ODAC

#3  UMHB
#5  Trinity  (Geographic proximity)

#2 Wesley
#7 NCWC
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 28, 2007, 01:04:38 am
Bob

 I was just asking....  ;) I am still trying to figure out this owp,oowp,eieio thing...
So does Wesley get Widnener's and NCW's as a owp & oowp because thye played each other. OR is common opponents a different animal all together?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 28, 2007, 01:07:38 am
Bob

 I was just asking....  ;) I am still trying to figure out this owp,oowp,eieio thing...
So does Wesley get Widener's and NCW's as a owp & oowp because they played each other. OR is common opponents a different animal all together?
Common opponents is another of the primary criteria!

2007 Football Handbook (http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2007/2007_d3_football_handbook.pdf)

I keep the Handbook "bookmarked" as soon as it is released, regardless of the sport!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 28, 2007, 02:55:41 am
Bob
 Don't you think that Wesleys wins over Widener & NCW are more important now than the Del Val win?

I do.  I just didn't get around to writing all of that, or anybody else's "including wins" from the past two weeks...

Checking scores, watching World Series, Ohio State-Penn State, the Penguins and attending a wedding reception, not to mention trying to help my 12-year-old son understand why W&J's playoff berth would be different this year as compared to the Pool B's madness he's endured over the past 6 or so seasons.

As they say on PTI (knuckleheads), I'll try to do better the next time!

 :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hampton U SID on October 28, 2007, 11:48:17 am
Wesley's REGULAR season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Ralph meant REGULAR season.

Yes.  Bob has my back!

On the ASC board, I guessed that South Bracket would look like this (after 9 weeks of results):

#1  W&J
#8  Muhlenberg

#4 Salisbury
#6 ODAC

#3  UMHB
#5  Trinity  (Geographic proximity)

#2 Wesley
#7 NCWC



My question Ralph..from one who knows where his team will stand in two weeks (preparing for a banquet   ;D  )....Would the committee match up a pair of teams that played in the opening week of the season in the opening round (Wesley v. NCWC??)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DutchFan2004 on October 28, 2007, 12:23:37 pm
My understanding is that only conference schools are to be avoided in playing each other first round.  If there were other non conference schools on your schedule they are not protected by this rule. 

Ralph with UMHB getting beat by the #3 team you think that knocks them out of the #1 in the South Region?  If they stay at near the top of the top 25 and W&J is below them in the rankings you think they fall from a #1 seeding?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 28, 2007, 12:59:38 pm
nnasid - Yeah, they will. I recall them doing it in '03 in the West Region by matching up Redlands/Linfield in the opening round. (Technically, the teams played each other the second week of the regular season, although it was Linfield's first game and Redland's second).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 28, 2007, 01:56:51 pm
nnasid,

Good question.  I was partially going on seeding, partially on distance and partially on the effect that the Texas sub-bracket has on this region.

NCWC to W&J is close to 480 miles and Muhlenberg to Washington PA (W&J) is only 294, a straight shot across Pennsylvania, (by the "wrong" map service, Google Maps.  It was too hard to get into the official mappoint shortest distance.)

DutchFan2004,

If I were sitting on the committee, I think that I would value an undefeated team over a one-loss team, if the statistical criteria and available head-to-heads were not too disparate in favor of the one-loss team.  You cannot ask a team to do anything more than go undefeated.

I think that W&J has the number one seed this Wednesday.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hampton U SID on October 28, 2007, 02:11:15 pm
NCWC to Salisbury and ODAC to the Wolverine Den?

Anyway...I just hope the ACFC can snag a pair of dance tickets. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 28, 2007, 03:22:41 pm
NCWC to Salisbury and ODAC to the Wolverine Den?

Anyway...I just hope the ACFC can snag a pair of dance tickets. :)
Then I would assume that you have switched the seedings there to give that bracket.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DutchFan2004 on October 28, 2007, 09:53:21 pm
Ralph,

Ok I guess I can understand that reasoning.  I was going from the reasoning that the #3 team in the nation at the time of the game and now the #2 was the team that beat them.  I don't know of a team of that quality on W&J's schedule but haven't done the research. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2007, 01:29:53 am
Wesley's REGULAR season is essentially over.  Morrisville is a 2nd-year provisional team this year.

Ralph meant REGULAR season.

Yes.  Bob has my back!

On the ASC board, I guessed that South Bracket would look like this (after 9 weeks of results):

#1  W&J
#8  Muhlenberg

#4 Salisbury
#6 ODAC

#3  UMHB
#5  Trinity  (Geographic proximity)

#2 Wesley
#7 NCWC



My question Ralph..from one who knows where his team will stand in two weeks (preparing for a banquet   ;D  )....Would the committee match up a pair of teams that played in the opening week of the season in the opening round (Wesley v. NCWC??)

Yes,
 They will. Did it just last year with North Central and Concordia (Wis.), for example. As Dutch said, they only avoid conference rematches in the first round. Anything else is fair game.

Ralph,
 What makes you think Muhlenberg would be an 8 seed? With TCNJ in control of the NJAC, that's not a win over a regionally-ranked team, but that's got to be a factor somehow. In OWP/OOWP at least.

 I think you'd be better off flopping the Muhlenberg and ODAC seed, at least. ODAC team is going to come in with 2 losses if it's H-SC and no significant non-conference wins, and 1-2 losses if it's R-MC (depending on what they do vs. Bridgewater) and no significant non-conference wins (Carnegie Mellon would be the best).

 Without doing the numbers, I don't see why Muhlenberg wouldn't grade out ahead of that.

 Trin-UMHB is a lock no matter the seeds. So if you keep that 2-7, you can send ODAC to Salisbury and still Muhl to W&J.

 I dunno, I'm pretty sure all 6 of the south schools will fall in the 500-mile thing. NCWC to W&J?

 Anyway,
 Pool B is basically down to four slots, and will it's fourth be strong enough to take a C? (if I had to guess now, I'd say yes)
 
 Wesley
 Salisbury
 Case Western
 Linfield/Whitworth winner

 No?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: repete on October 29, 2007, 01:39:08 am
So KMack, after Saturday's defensive lapses in Collegeville, do you see  Pool B's "fourth" competing against the Johnnies for those Pool C's spots... ?

(Not to hijack the thread)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2007, 01:44:18 am
So KMack, after Saturday's defensive lapses in Collegeville, do you see  Pool B's "fourth" competing against the Johnnies for those Pool C's spots... ?

(Not to hijack the thread)

Hey, Pool B was in your question.  ;)

I take it you're saying in case of a loss to Bethel, is St. John's still good? (eerily similar to last year, where SJU rose to No. 3 behind MUC and UWW, 9-0 heading into Bethel game)

But it also seems like a two-pronged question: The defensive lapses have to do with how they'd compete on the field, but not with how they'd compete for a bid.

My guess at this juncture, without knowing the Week 10 and Week 11 fallout, would be that the Johnnies are in good shape for a C if they lose, because the pool for Pool C is not what it was last year. But with the right losses, perhaps it could become that.

Also, you know, the NWC team is still treading on thin ice, I don't think they're guaranteed a spot at all unless Case loses.

As for how I think they would compete ... I actually think what I saw of Linfield vs. Hardin-Simmons compares to what I saw of SJU vs. UST.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on October 29, 2007, 09:08:53 am
And the Linfield team you saw then has improved greatly (especially on Defense) since that game.  If they beat Whitworth this week (and Lewis and Clark the following week) and don't make the play-offs....well, it will be a real shame for Linfield and for the D3-playoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2007, 10:06:32 am
K-Mack,  You ask a good question.

If Muhlenberg goes undefeated, I think that they get a home game.

That makes them at least a #4 seed.

I will need to re-think this.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 29, 2007, 11:09:20 am

Also, you know, the NWC team is still treading on thin ice, I don't think they're guaranteed a spot at all unless Case loses.


K-Mack....I was thinking with Salisbury loosing to Wesley and being second in their league (for the time being) and them only having 5 total regional wins, the NWC Champ would overtake them if they both won out. Linfield would have 6 region wins and Whitworth would have 8. Case also has 2 fairly tough games ahead so we'll see how it pans out.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2007, 03:06:11 pm
And the Linfield team you saw then has improved greatly (especially on Defense) since that game. 

Or they haven't played an offense as good as Hardin-Simmons' since.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on October 29, 2007, 03:12:13 pm
And the Linfield team you saw then has improved greatly (especially on Defense) since that game. 

Or they haven't played an offense as good as Hardin-Simmons' since.
  No doubt Pat.  Though I will point out the shut-out against PLU which was putting up big scores (granted against a lot of not great teams) and scored 21 off Whitworth who is supposed to be strong on Defense.  But I'm sure your right.  And since Linfield has scored more points than any other team against HSU they must be the best Offense that the Cowboys have faced.   :P
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2007, 03:32:30 pm
Only because they needed to score that many to win. I feel confident that UMHB could've scored a second touchdown in the fourth quarter if necessary, but when holding HSU to 14 there wasn't much need for more than 47 points.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pirat on October 29, 2007, 09:46:04 pm
Is there criteria other than the "Evaluation Regions"(Appendix C) used by the NCAA to determine a regional opponent?  If so where can I find that criteria in the NCAA guidebook?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2007, 09:48:37 pm
http://www.d3football.com/faq.php?answer&category=Playoffs&id=38
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pirat on October 29, 2007, 11:45:08 pm
Thanks
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 30, 2007, 01:13:20 am

Also, you know, the NWC team is still treading on thin ice, I don't think they're guaranteed a spot at all unless Case loses.


K-Mack....I was thinking with Salisbury loosing to Wesley and being second in their league (for the time being) and them only having 5 total regional wins, the NWC Champ would overtake them if they both won out. Linfield would have 6 region wins and Whitworth would have 8. Case also has 2 fairly tough games ahead so we'll see how it pans out.

Well bluenote,
 I wish I had better news for you, as Linfield in the playoffs (or Whitworth) is always a fun deal. The NWC has been good for D3.

 But Salisbury has a couple good things going for it besides regional wins. Their standing in the ACFC is not a factor in playoff selection.
 
 I think I might have said on this board (or another) yesterday that the 'results against regionally-ranked teams' criteria may have applied to teams ranked within a team's same region.
 
 But it would also make sense if it were referring to any regionally-ranked team, which means Salisbury holds a nice ace in the hole if Albright keeps on winning and/or wins the MAC. The Gulls beat them 42-12 on opening day.

 That and the Wesley game would give them a 1-1 record vs. teams who show up in regional rankings. Linfield or Whitworth would have a 1-0 record if the other team remained in the West rankings, which might not happen. THey might be 0-0. Hardin-Simmons or Christopher Newport could sneak into the bottom of the South rankings, which could help either team, but I doubt it.

 Salisbury also played Delaware Valley, which was No. 10 in the South last week.

 Just going by last week, Salisbury would be 2-1 against regionally-ranked opponents. Linfield shows up at No. 9 in the West, so if they beat Whitworth, they would be 0-0.

  I know the meat of the Gulls schedule has three, maybe four, teams that don't qualify as regional wins in NNA (non-D3), Geneva, Morrisville (first- and second-year provisional) and Becker ... but my guess is that not losing any of those games and doing what they did against the two MAC leaders and Wesley should benefit them enough to get 'em in.

 I'm just speculating off the top of the head though, you might well be right. I just don't see why.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: gordonmann on October 30, 2007, 11:17:44 am
Pat can correct me if I'm recalling incorrectly, but I think we interpret "results against regionally-ranked teams" to include all ranked teams, regardless of which one they are ranked in.  So Salisbury's wins against Del Val and Albright would count in that criteria.

The regional rankings will obviously change this week.  You could see Widener (which helps Wesley) or Montclair State (which hurts Wesley) added.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2007, 04:17:43 pm
Results against teams ranked in any region.

Becker is a regional game for Salisbury.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 12:10:51 am
Something is a little strange when Case Western Reserve at 8-0 is supposedly one of the top Pool B teams. They hung 35 on Chicago last week. Well,  Lewis and Clark scored 27 on Chicago a few weeks back. What does that tell you?    ::)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2007, 12:58:36 am
That comparing half of a score is fairly useless.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 31, 2007, 07:10:48 am
Something is a little strange when Case Western Reserve at 8-0 is supposedly one of the top Pool B teams. They hung 35 on Chicago last week. Well,  Lewis and Clark scored 27 on Chicago a few weeks back. What does that tell you?    ::)

Ah, you can recognize the fans from a mile away....

Let's run down the opponent, just in case it might help our case.

Linfield won't be helped at all by Lewis & Clark scoring 27 on Chicago a few weeks back. 

Why?  Because Chicago scored 57 in the same game.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 10:39:50 am
....well....I just thought it was interesting that Lewis & Clark could score 27 on Chicago and Case scored 35. I'm sure none of the teams mentioned gave up during the game. I'm just pointing out that Case must have a similar offensive attack to Lewis & Clark. I didn't say anything about defense... ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 31, 2007, 10:51:08 am
Case Western Reserve 35, Chicago 3

Chicago 57, Lewis & Clark 27.

WHAT point are you trying to make?

Quote from: bluenote
What does that tell you?

THAT tells me pay no attention to Lewis & Clark.

It doesn't tell me a thing about Case Western Reserve and their status among the top Pool B teams, except that they beat Chicago, and remain UNDEFEATED.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 11:03:55 am
....I already stated my point that Case has pretty much the same offensive attack as Lewis & Clark. I'd like to see Case and Lewis & Clark go head to head and battle it out!  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2007, 12:30:22 pm
....I already stated my point that Case has pretty much the same offensive attack as Lewis & Clark. I'd like to see Case and Lewis & Clark go head to head and battle it out!  ;)

You stated your point. But you didn't really prove it.

Case had 28 at the half against Chicago and won the second half 7-0. Seven players ran the ball for Case against Chicago.

L&C didn't ever get to 28 points. It scored its 27th point with eight minutes left in the game. And it took 20% more offensive snaps than Case did to get those 27 points.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 12:50:39 pm
...well I think Lewis & Clark maybe let up on Chicago a little. But I'm confident L& C would give Case a heck of a battle and maybe even come out on top on any given Saturday! After all Lewis and Clark almost beat Macalester a couple years ago!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2007, 12:57:15 pm
Yes. It's natural to try to stop scoring when you're losing.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 01:02:07 pm
Pat...you crack me up!  :D 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: usee on October 31, 2007, 01:08:29 pm
.... I'm sure none of the teams mentioned gave up during the game.


...well I think Lewis & Clark maybe let up on Chicago a little.

Now I am really confused.   ??? :P ::)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2007, 01:08:41 pm
It's a dry wit.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 31, 2007, 01:38:11 pm
It's Fanaticism!

If Case doesn't look as good to somebody, Linfield (by default) must look better....

Give it a rest, blue.

While you can't find three other references from me to comparitive scores, I have to say this:

Case Western 35, Chicago 3
Chicago 57, Lewis & Clark 27.

And you think L&C would give Case a game?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 31, 2007, 01:45:12 pm
New SOS numbers:
http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2007
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on October 31, 2007, 04:09:12 pm
Newest Regional Rankings Released:

No. Name In-Region Overall
East 
1.  Rensselaer  7-0  7-0
2.  The College of New Jersey  7-1  7-1
3.  Curry 9-0  9-0
4.  St. John Fisher  8-1  8-1
5.  Albright  7-1  7-1
6.  Alfred 7-1  7-1
7.  Hobart  6-2  6-2
8.  Union (New York)  5-2 5-2
9.  Cortland State  5-2  6-2
10.  Widener  5-2  6-2
North
1.  Mount Union  8-0  8-0
2.  Wheaton (Illinois)  8-0  8-0
3.  Wabash  8-0  8-0
4.  Case Western Reserve  6-0  8-0
5.  Franklin  7-1  7-1
6.  Mount St. Joseph  7-1  7-1
7.  Capital  6-2  6-2
8.  Wittenberg  6-2  6-2
9.  Illinois Wesleyan  6-2  6-2
10.  North Central (Illinois)  6-2  6-2
South
1.  Washington and Jefferson  5-0  8-0
2.  Wesley  6-1  8-1
3.  Mary Hardin-Baylor  7-1  7-1
4.  Muhlenberg  8-0  8-0
5.  Salisbury  4-1  8-1
6.  Waynesburg  6-1  7-1
7.  Trinity (Texas)  6-1  7-1
8.  Randolph Macon  7-1  7-1
9.  Ursinus  6-1  7-1
10.  Hampden-Sydney  5-2  6-2
West
1.  Wisconsin-Whitewater  7-0  7-1
2.  St. John’s (Minnesota) 8-0  9-0
3.  Central (Iowa)  8-0  9-0
4.  St. Norbert  8-0  9-0
5.  Bethel (Minnesota)  7-1  7-1
6.  Wartburg  8-1  8-1
7.  Linfield  4-1  5-2
8.  Occidental  6-1  6-1
9.  Redlands  6-1  7-1
10.  Whitworth  6-1  6-2
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 31, 2007, 05:31:06 pm
Pool B Impact Games (Nov. 3rd)

1.  Case Western Reserve (8-0 / 6-0) vs. (bubble) Washington (MO) (6-2 / 6-2)

       
3.  Whitworth (6-2 / 6-1) vs. 5.  Linfield (5-2 / 4-1)

Regional Rankings:

Case Western Reserve--North #4
Wesley--South #2
Salisbury--South #5
Linfield--West #7
Whitworth--West #10
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 31, 2007, 05:31:58 pm
Comparing scores at any rate is a risky business. Because you have to take into account the conditions, injuries, conference vs. non conference, where the game was played, etc.

Yeesh.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 07:00:38 pm
Bob.Gregg.....Lewis & Clark may take them out. Their offenses are similar in that they both run and pass + they have a pretty decent chapel and dining hall!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 31, 2007, 09:26:08 pm
I think bluenote is just having some fun with the Chicago/Lewis & Clark score and how they compare to Case Western Reserve. However, I do think it's interesting that none of the opponents Case has faced currently have a winning record and right now Washington U. is the only team on their schedule that is above .500.

Case Western Reserve's opponents:

Oberlin (3-5)
Denison (3-5)
Kenyon (2-6)
Wooster (2-6)
Gallaudet (1-5)
Carnegie Mellon (4-4)
St. Vincent (0-8)
Chicago (3-4)
 
Yet to play:

Washington U. (6-2)
Ohio Wesleyan (3-5)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 31, 2007, 10:15:12 pm
I think bluenote is just having some fun with the Chicago/Lewis & Clark score and how they compare to Case Western Reserve. However, I do think it's interesting that none of the opponents Case has faced currently have a winning record and right now Washington U. is the only team on their schedule that is above .500.

Case Western Reserve's opponents:

Oberlin (3-5)
Denison (3-5)
Kenyon (2-6)
Wooster (2-6)
Gallaudet (1-5)
Carnegie Mellon (4-4)
St. Vincent (0-8)
Chicago (3-4)
 
Yet to play:

Washington U. (6-2)
Ohio Wesleyan (3-5)

Quote
Let's start putting names and faces together.  We shall assume that the highest ranked team in a conference will get the Pool A bid.

East Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. RPI 7-0 7-1                               LL
2. New Jersey 7-1 7-1                NJAC
3. Curry 9-0 9-0                         NEFC
4. St. John Fisher 8-1 8-1           E8
5. Albright 7-1 7-1                      MAC
6. Alfred 7-1 7-1                          Pool C    E8 At Ithaca, at SJF       
7. Hobart 6-2 6-2                        Pool C    LL  At Union, at Rochester
8. Union 5-2 5-2                          Pool C    LL  At Hobart, at RPI
9. Cortland State 5-2 6-2           Pool C   NJAC Rowan, at Ithaca
10. Widener 5-2 6-2                   Pool C   MAC  Albright, at Wilkes

(How many fans has Ithaca picked up from other Pool C teams this afternoon?  Wink )

North Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Mount Union 8-0 8-0                       OAC
2. Wheaton (Ill.) 8-0 8-0                      CCIW
3. Wabash 8-0 8-0                                NCAC
4. Case Western Reserve 6-0 8-0        UAA Pool B #2  Wash U, Ohio Wesleyan
5. Franklin 7-1 7-1                                 HCAC
6. Mount St. Joseph 7-1 7-1                   Pool C  HCAC  At Bluffton, Thomas More
7. Capital 6-2 6-2                                   Pool C  OAC  At Muskingum, BWC
8. Wittenberg 6-2 6-2                            Pool  C  NCAC  At Allegheny, Hiram
9. Illinois Wesleyan 6-2 6-2                   Pool C  CCIW  At NCC, Wheaton
10. North Central 6-2 6-2                      Pool C   CCIW  IWU, at Carthage

NR  Concordia WI                                   IBC
NR  Hope                                                MIAA

South Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Washington and Jefferson 5-0 8-0        Pres AC
2. Wesley 6-1 8-1                                      Pool B #1  at Morrisville State
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-1 7-1                    ASC
4. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0                               CC
5. Salisbury 4-1 8-1                                    Pool B #3  Frostburg St at Annapolis
6. Waynesburg 6-1 7-1                              Pool C  Pres AC  Geneva, at Westminster PA
7. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1                            SCAC
8. Randolph-Macon 7-1 7-1                        ODAC
9. Ursinus 6-1 7-1                                       Pool C  CC  Muhlenberg, at Dickinson
10. Hampden-Sydney 5-2 6-2                     Pool C  ODAC   Huntingdon, at RMC

NR  NCWC                                                   USAC

West Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. UW-Whitewater 7-0 7-1                  WIAC
2. St. John’s 8-0 9-0                             MIAC                                 
3. Central 8-0 9-0                                IIAC
4. St. Norbert 8-0 9-0                           MWC
5. Bethel 7-1 7-1                                  Pool C MIAC  Augsburg at Metrodome, SJU
6. Wartburg 8-1 8-1                             Pool C IIAC  at Cornell, Central
7. Linfield 4-1 5-2                                  Pool B/C  NWC at Whitworth, L&C
8. Occidental 6-1 6-1                            Pool C SCIAC (CLU has tie-breaker) Chapman, at Whittier
9. Redlands 6-1 7-1                              Pool C SCIAC Whittier, at CLU
10. Whitworth 6-1 6-2                          Pool B/C  Linfield, at Puget Sound

NR  Cal Lutheran                                            SCIAC  at PP, Redlands



Case's OWP and OOWP are already figured into this week's rankings.  We see lots of games that will impact the NWC, but right now, Linfield needs some favorties to beat the contenders to move up to the table for the selection process.

The good news that I see in the North Region is that there are some very solid teams that are likely to run the table.

I think that it would be tough for the 3rd team left in the Region after the Pool B's to get a Pool C bid.

Right now, I think that Linfield is about 6th on the Pool C list.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Buckeyes75 on October 31, 2007, 10:16:20 pm
Interesting yes, but they are scoring 39 a game and allowing 12. So even though the schedule is poor they are still getting the job done. This weekend will be judgement day for Case to see if they are legit or not.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on October 31, 2007, 11:21:07 pm
Ralph Turner....I've run your theory through the computer and we found it has flaws.

Foss....I still have your tape from the ESPN 2004 Playoff Interview. Pat ...was pretty correct in his analysis.


PS.....I have heard that the Wildcats will be pulling out a trick play from......"Frosties Trick Book"
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Foss on October 31, 2007, 11:31:33 pm
Thanks, bluenote - I'll get it from you. I remember Coach Locey giving some love to the D3football crew during his interview.

Buckeyes75, Yeah, I agree with you on the Washington U. game. If they can beat Washington U., which is a decent team, they'll deserve some respect. If, however, they can't beat the only team currently with a winning record on their schedule (and it's at home), that will also tell us a lot about them.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 01, 2007, 01:30:04 am
Ralph Turner....I've run your theory through the computer and we found it has flaws.
Thanks for testing the theory!  What did your analysis show?  :)

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 01, 2007, 01:43:28 am
Wow, that was about as useless a two pages of reading as possible.

Nice work guys!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 01, 2007, 10:16:55 am
Useless? No, not useless. It did kill time, right?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on November 01, 2007, 11:01:55 am
Ralph Turner....I've run your theory through the computer and we found it has flaws.
Thanks for testing the theory!  What did your analysis show?  :)



...we're not sure yet.  But Deep Blue was calculating until it blew a vacuum tube.  :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 01, 2007, 01:02:42 pm
Ralph Turner....I've run your theory through the computer and we found it has flaws.
Thanks for testing the theory!  What did your analysis show?  :)



 
 
...we're not sure yet.  But Deep Blue was calculating until it blew a vacuum tube.  :D


 Poor Deep Blue probably tried to incorporate what the comittee is thinking and their past decisions defied logic!!! ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on November 01, 2007, 01:15:33 pm
Wow, that was about as useless a two pages of reading as possible.

Nice work guys!

Reminds me of when I get home from a Linfield game and go to the NWC page. The 10 pages of play by play kill me.      ::)

K-Mack...will you be putting together a scenario for pool b/c after this weekends games?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 01, 2007, 01:18:39 pm
Ralph

 Wesley's #1 owp probably has helped with them being ahead of UMHB at this point. The fly in the oinment in the ACFC and owp,oowp with both Wesley and  Salisbury is that  Frostburg St has only played 3 in region games and the 4th is against Salibury (three of those teams have 1 loss) which will raise FSU's owp, oowp even higher
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 01, 2007, 03:50:06 pm
Wow, that was about as useless a two pages of reading as possible.

Nice work guys!

Reminds me of when I get home from a Linfield game and go to the NWC page. The 10 pages of play by play kill me.      ::)

K-Mack...will you be putting together a scenario for pool b/c after this weekends games?

It was on the original plan for this week's ATN.

In any case, you pretty much know what I think:
Pool B 1: Wesley
2: Salisbury
3: Case if they win this week
Good chance in B/C: Linfield/Whitworth winner.

I get that Linfield and Case head-to-head wouldn't be a good game (we think), but that's not how the playoff selection process works.

As far as a C projection, you'd really have to wait until a lot of the AQ clashes shake out.

I could provide a list of those.

As far as Pat & Gordon's official projections, yeah, I would expect some mid-week next week if not sooner.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on November 01, 2007, 04:31:53 pm
Wow, that was about as useless a two pages of reading as possible.

Nice work guys!

Reminds me of when I get home from a Linfield game and go to the NWC page. The 10 pages of play by play kill me.      ::)

K-Mack...will you be putting together a scenario for pool b/c after this weekends games?
Ouch.....some guys need the play by play :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 01, 2007, 06:13:19 pm

In any case, you pretty much know what I think:
Pool B 1: Wesley
2: Salisbury
3: Case if they win this week
Good chance in B/C: Linfield/Whitworth winner.

I get that Linfield and Case head-to-head wouldn't be a good game (we think), but that's not how the playoff selection process works.

As far as a C projection, you'd really have to wait until a lot of the AQ clashes shake out.

Yeah, Pool C is much more interesting at this point...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on November 01, 2007, 07:32:30 pm
Wow, that was about as useless a two pages of reading as possible.

Nice work guys!

Reminds me of when I get home from a Linfield game and go to the NWC page. The 10 pages of play by play kill me.      ::)

K-Mack...will you be putting together a scenario for pool b/c after this weekends games?
Ouch.....some guys need the play by play :)

MonroviaCat....I was thinking that the game is broadcast on line? If you are on a computer why would you need to read the posts on the NWC Board?...why wouldn't you just listen to the game on your computer?  ;)  Maybe I'm missing something here?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: janesvilleflash on November 01, 2007, 07:59:58 pm
You should start an in game thread like many others have.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on November 01, 2007, 08:42:16 pm
Wow, that was about as useless a two pages of reading as possible.

Nice work guys!

Reminds me of when I get home from a Linfield game and go to the NWC page. The 10 pages of play by play kill me.      ::)

K-Mack...will you be putting together a scenario for pool b/c after this weekends games?
Ouch.....some guys need the play by play :)

MonroviaCat....I was thinking that the game is broadcast on line? If you are on a computer why would you need to read the posts on the NWC Board?...why wouldn't you just listen to the game on your computer?  ;)  Maybe I'm missing something here?
Actually I don't need the play by play.  Some of the times I post the play by play because one of our online bretheren has posted that they can't get the feed.  When that isn't the case I am not quite doing play by play but more updates which some people like to check in on.  Still, I don't have a need to do it and can certainly stop (and no I'm not offended by your comment--my ouch comment was tongue in cheek :) )
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on November 01, 2007, 08:45:29 pm
...no prob MonroviaCat I just couldn't figure out why people on a computer would be more apt to read posts rather than just listen to the game. I like janesvilleflash's idea the best. That way you can post to your hearts content.   :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 01, 2007, 08:51:53 pm
I really like conference-specific in-game reports.

It lets us fans concentrate on following games and not mess up the usual traffic that we read on the conference message board.

I hope that the NWC will start an in-game report message board. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on November 01, 2007, 09:27:44 pm
Done--NWC in game update page has been created.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on November 02, 2007, 12:20:34 am
KOOL...... :D

MonroviaCat....+K!!!!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ryan Tipps on November 02, 2007, 05:32:36 pm
MonroviaCat....I was thinking that the game is broadcast on line? If you are on a computer why would you need to read the posts on the NWC Board?...why wouldn't you just listen to the game on your computer?  ;)  Maybe I'm missing something here?

bluenote, I know that MonroviaCat already answered this for you, but just so I can get my $.02 in, I can think of three reasons why I appreciate people to post updates:

1) I sometimes work on Saturdays, and though I can't keep Real Player on at work to listen to a game, I can certainly keep Post Patterns on in the background to keep tabs on the action.

2) Just about every week, there is no fewer than 10 games that I'm interested in and want to check on. Sure, I might be listening to one online, but the message boards (in addition to the D3 Scoreboard) help me to see what's going on in the other nine games I care about.

3) I live out in the sticks, where the only internet currently available to me is dial-up. So getting an online feed isn't like walking up hill, it's like climbing a mountain.  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bluenote on November 02, 2007, 11:09:46 pm
Ryan Tipps (WCLegacy)....don't be givin' MonroviaCat any ideas! :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MonroviaCat on November 02, 2007, 11:23:48 pm
Ryan Tipps (WCLegacy)....don't be givin' MonroviaCat any ideas! :D
Yeah, I might start posting play by play on all the pages! :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 03, 2007, 03:31:36 pm
If you haven't seen it elsewhere, CWRU wins 35-27.  9-0!!!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 03, 2007, 09:20:32 pm
Basically it's : Salisbury / Wesley / Whitworth / Case

Case needs to beat Ohio Wesleyan. With one loss Case is a definite bubble team. I can see a 2 loss Capital or Wittenberg ahead of a 1 loss Case.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 03, 2007, 09:37:57 pm
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Case Western Reserve (9-0 / 7-0)
          Nov. 10  Ohio Wesleyan

2.  Wesley (8-1 / 6-1)
including loss to Montclair State (27-26)

          Nov. 10  At Morrisville State

3.  Whitworth (7-2 / 7-1)
including loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34

          Nov. 10  At Puget South

4.  Salisbury (8-1 / 4-1)
including loss at Wesley, 20-13

          Nov. 10  Frostburg State

Pool B Bubble (not realistic chance to get invite, B OR C):Linfield (5-3 / 4-2)
Loss to Willamette, 33-32,
Loss to Western Ore., 32-20 (non-DIII)
Loss to Whitworth, 10-6

          Nov. 10  Lewis & Clark


Pacific Lutheran (6-2 / 6-2)
Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0

          Nov. 10  Willamette


If Case, Wesley, Whitworth and Salisbury win out, I believe

Case, Wesley & Whitworth get "B"s, and Salisburgy gets a "C", the first expanded-bracket C bid going to a B team.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 03, 2007, 09:50:12 pm
Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Case Western Reserve (9-0 / 7-0)
          Nov. 10  Ohio Wesleyan

2.  Wesley (8-1 / 6-1)
including loss to Montclair State (27-26)

          Nov. 10  At Morrisville State

3.  Whitworth (6-2 / 6-1)
including loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34

          Nov. 10  At Puget South

4.  Salisbury (8-1 / 4-1)
including loss at Wesley, 20-13

          Nov. 10  Frostburg State

Pool B Bubble (not realistic chance to get invite, B OR C):Linfield (5-3 / 4-2)
Loss to Willamette, 33-32,
Loss to Western Ore., 32-20 (non-DIII)
Loss to Whitworth, 10-6

          Nov. 10  Lewis & Clark


Pacific Lutheran (6-2 / 6-2)
Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0


          Nov. 10  Willamette


If Case, Wesley, Whitworth and Salisbury win out, I believe

Case, Wesley & Whitworth get "B"s, and Salisburgy gets a "C", the first expanded-bracket C bid going to a B team.
+1 Bob,

In-region games are bolded.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 05, 2007, 11:08:25 am
I think you are showing one less Whitworth victory than you should. They play a 10 game schedule and have 7 regional D3 victories, a D3 loss (Redlands), and the loss to Azusa Pacific (NAIA) with Puget Sound (D3) on Saturday.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pirat on November 05, 2007, 11:23:15 am
They are. Regional should be 7-1.  Hopefully 8-1 by next Saturday.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2007, 11:38:25 am
corrected per d-train's note.  thanks.

Team (record/regional record)
Remaining Schedule (Regional Games in Bold)

1.  Case Western Reserve (9-0 / 7-0)
          Nov. 10  Ohio Wesleyan

2.  Wesley (8-1 / 6-1)
including loss to Montclair State (27-26)

          Nov. 10  At Morrisville State

3.  Whitworth (7-2 / 7-1)
including loss to Redlands, 24-12
Loss to Azusa Pacific (non-NCAA), 38-34

          Nov. 10  At Puget South

4.  Salisbury (8-1 / 4-1)
including loss at Wesley, 20-13

          Nov. 10  Frostburg State

Pool B Bubble (not realistic chance to get invite, B OR C):
Linfield (5-3 / 4-2)
Loss to Willamette, 33-32,
Loss to Western Ore., 32-20 (non-DIII)
Loss to Whitworth, 10-6

          Nov. 10  Lewis & Clark


Pacific Lutheran (6-2 / 6-2)
Loss to Whitworth, 28-21,
Loss to Linfield, 24-0


          Nov. 10  Willamette


If Case, Wesley, Whitworth and Salisbury win out, I believe

Case, Wesley & Whitworth get "B"s, and Salisburgy gets a "C", the first expanded-bracket C bid going to a B team.

In-region games are bolded. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2007, 04:52:27 pm
New regional rankings:

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/11/07/third-regional-rankings/
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 07, 2007, 06:03:33 pm
New regional rankings:

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/11/07/third-regional-rankings/

It's going to be a tight call on the 3rd Pool B bid...and if that '4th' team gets a Pool C bid. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 07, 2007, 06:57:07 pm
d-train,

I really struggled this week with the #3 & #4.

Case and Wesley are locks for B's.
Whitworth at 8-1 in-region (with a win over Puget Sound) is a lock for a berth (B or C).

Salisbury's likely to get a B, with a win over Frostburg State, though they better hope they get a B because a C is kinda dicey with 5-1 regional mark...

So, I left them Case, Wesley, Whitworth, Salisbury  (and I wouldn't want to be Salisbury if Case, Wesley and Whitworth all win...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on November 07, 2007, 07:07:37 pm

Whitworth at 8-1 in-region (with a win over Puget Sound) is a lock for a berth (B or C).


Yeah, maybe. I would think that Whitworth's 8-1 record would look better than Salisbury's 5-1. But if they do drop to a Pool C - and SJU, Cal Lutheran, and Central lose - the Pirates might be the 5th rated Pool C in the West. That's cutting it close. But that's kind of 'worst case'. I don't expect both SJU and Central to lose (maybe one of them).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 07, 2007, 10:51:31 pm
I still find it pretty hard to believe that Salisbury wouldn't get in with all wins and only a loss to Wesley. Despite not playing a schedule with many established programs in the middle there, the wins over Albright and CNU, and the score vs. Wesley, while not great, should tell us something.

Technically speaking, their regional ranking position in the South, with regard to other Bs and Cs, looks promising as well.

I believe Pat's projection will be out tonight.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 08, 2007, 07:06:03 am
I believe Salisbury will get a bid with a win Saturday, or with a 2003 style collapse around the at-large party.

I just wouldn't want to be them overnight into Sunday.  It won't be the most comfortable night's sleep.  That's all.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 08, 2007, 11:37:03 pm
Man, remember '03? That was a mess.

Only the automatics sleep easy, I'd guess. Everyone else is on edge until they actually see/hear their name called.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 10, 2007, 09:51:39 am
I've put all the conference races, key games, head-to-head tiebreakers, AQ berths, Pool B & C eligibles all in one place:

http://www.wjpa.com/All-in-One-Races.htm

Hope someone else finds this useful today...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 10, 2007, 10:45:10 am
CWRU will play OWU without starting QB (bruised knee-would be able to play in playoffs) and #1 WR (out for season).  There are quality backups.  #2 QB was starter in '05 till injured and started some games last season.  Has completed 70% of passes this year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 10, 2007, 09:42:42 pm
I think Case Western Reserve, Wesley and Salisbury cemented their "B" bids, though Whitworth has a solid case as well.

Case is 10-0 and a lock to get in.
Wesley is 9-1 with the #2 OWP (.716!!!)
Salisbury is 9-1, losing only to Wesley and #13 OWP (.595).  The holdup with Salisbury is that they are only 5-1 in-region.

Whitworth is 8-1 in-region but with the #122 strength of schedule, but I think they still get in, likely as the first Pool B team to get a Pool C bid, though it's far from a lock.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: gordonmann on November 11, 2007, 02:16:52 am
Our final playoff projections are posted here (http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/11/11/final-playoff-projections-2).

Have a good night, everyone.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Teamski on November 11, 2007, 10:01:52 am
Thanks for the hard work!!  It is definately appreciated!!  :D

-Ski
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 20, 2007, 01:22:15 am
I think Case Western Reserve, Wesley and Salisbury cemented their "B" bids, though Whitworth has a solid case as well.

Case is 10-0 and a lock to get in.
Wesley is 9-1 with the #2 OWP (.716!!!)
Salisbury is 9-1, losing only to Wesley and #13 OWP (.595).  The holdup with Salisbury is that they are only 5-1 in-region.

Whitworth is 8-1 in-region but with the #122 strength of schedule, but I think they still get in, likely as the first Pool B team to get a Pool C bid, though it's far from a lock.
Final assessment--Bob almost had it! :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 20, 2007, 02:20:56 pm
Final assessment--Bob almost had it! :)

Thanks, Ralph!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 20, 2007, 03:18:04 pm
Actually, I think it was a 'grassy-knoll" type conspiracy.

The committee just couldn't give a Pool C bid to a Pool B-eligible team...

Now we know how Eau Claire got in...

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pirat on November 20, 2007, 05:02:30 pm
Oh, Bob I don't believe in any the "grassy knoll" stuff that has been floating around these boards in the last couple of weeks. In the RATS case, the plain and simple truth is we (The RATS) didn't do well enough in all of the criteria set forth by the NCAA and since we didn't do well enough it left the door open for others to come in. I believe the NCAA said prior to this playoff season, they were going to reward teams that played strong schedules. I know what I am going to say is akin to blasphemy on the NWC board but our conference as a whole based on conference winning percentage for this year is weak. We are tied for the worst winning percentage in the Western Region, and the 6th worst in the country.  As long as the NCAA continues down the path it started this year, this conference will have a very difficult time getting more than one entry into the playoffs.

I would like to see our conference compete for Pool C bids on a yearly basis. So the question is how do we do that.  Someone posted something all the lines of "play good teams" to increase your chances. I agree with that but how do we up here in the Great Northwest do that given the constraints of our location.  Maybe there is nothing feasible we can do and we should just take our AQ and be happy.  Most of us up here don’t have a rich Uncle Phil so I'd like to hear suggestions. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on December 18, 2007, 03:24:29 pm
And a Happy Holidays greeting to my ol' friends in Pool B!!!

I'd say "Ho Ho Ho!" but the last radio guy that did that got fired!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pirat on December 18, 2007, 05:18:29 pm
H H to you also Bob.Gregg.  Although now I guess I should be posting this on the AQ board at least until 2009 anyway.   
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on August 07, 2008, 11:19:22 am
Just wanted to check the list of Pool B's for the 2008 season.

How many bids this year? Two

Frostburg
Salisbury
Wesley
Gallaudet
Carnegie Mellon
Washington
Becker
Husson
Mount Ida
SUNY-Maritime
Chicago
Case Western
Rockford
Chapman
Macalester
Maranatha Baptist
Martin Luther

Northwestern (Minn)
Minnesota-Morris
Crown
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on August 07, 2008, 02:17:30 pm
Maranatha Baptist isn't on the list any more. They are in the Northern Athletics Conference who has a Pool A bid this year.

I think St. Scholastica should be on the list. They are a new program this year in the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference with Martin Luther, Minnesota-Morris, and Northwestern (MN).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on August 07, 2008, 02:30:38 pm
SLIAC is Pool B until 2010 when the AQ kicks in.

Blackburn
Eureka
Greenville
Huntingdon
LaGrange
MacMurray
Principia
Westminster(Mo.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on August 07, 2008, 07:59:49 pm
Just wanted to check the list of Pool B's for the 2008 season.

How many bids this year? Two

Frostburg
Salisbury
Wesley
Gallaudet
Carnegie Mellon
Washington
Becker
Husson
Mount Ida
SUNY-Maritime
Chicago
Case Western
Rockford
Chapman
Macalester
Maranatha Baptist
Martin Luther

Northwestern (Minn)
Minnesota-Morris
Crown
SLIAC is Pool B until 2010 when the AQ kicks in.

Blackburn
Eureka
Greenville
Huntingdon
LaGrange
MacMurray
Principia
Westminster(Mo.)

I count 27 Pool B teams.  I think that the Access Ratio is about 8.17 (196 Pool A teams in 23 conferences).  That gives us three...

Frostburg
Salisbury
Wesley   ACFC -- a non-conference Pool A conference

Carnegie Mellon
Washington
Chicago
Case Western   UAA

Gallaudet
Becker
Husson
Mount Ida
SUNY-Maritime   North Athletic Conference -- a non-Pool A conference

Rockford
Maranatha Baptist
  NAthCon Pool A

Chapman
Macalester  Independents

Martin Luther
Northwestern (Minn)
Minnesota-Morris
Crown
St Scholastica                              UMAC
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on August 07, 2008, 08:11:05 pm
Today's SI predicted the full line-up of d1 bowl match-ups, so I'm inspired to do some ridiculously early forecasting as well! ::)

The three Bs will be Wesley, Salisbury, and CWRU (or the UAA winner if someone knocks them off).  Unless Wesley or Salisbury totally lays an egg, I don't see anyone else competing strongly for a spot (and don't see any viable C candidates).

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on August 07, 2008, 08:44:22 pm
Today's SI predicted the full line-up of d1 bowl match-ups, so I'm inspired to do some ridiculously early forecasting as well! ::)

The three Bs will be Wesley, Salisbury, and CWRU (or the UAA winner if someone knocks them off).  Unless Wesley or Salisbury totally lays an egg, I don't see anyone else competing strongly for a spot (and don't see any viable C candidates).

Thoughts?
I agree.

My dark horse (if they can go 9-0 in-region and CWRU has one loss) is Huntingdon.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on August 12, 2008, 12:07:28 am
My dark horse (if they can go 9-0 in-region and CWRU has one loss) is Huntingdon.

I like the off-the-grid predictions. Those take gall.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on August 14, 2008, 11:00:35 pm
Speaking of which, I have one for you. Check out Husson's slate and tell me if you like their chances.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on August 14, 2008, 11:21:55 pm
Northwestern has a more impressive schedule this year with games against Simpson, at River Falls and at St. Thomas on the schedule compared to the trinity bibles and principia's of the past few years.  Winning 2 out of those 3 games combined with blowing everybody else out, I would think might be enough to take a spot, or maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on August 15, 2008, 12:04:09 am
I think Northwestern would have to go undefeated. It is a nice nonconference schedule but I think the lack of strength in the UMAC would drag them down. I think if they go undefeated they should have a chance at a Pool B. There won't be a concrete reason to keep them out of the playoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on August 15, 2008, 11:04:21 am
Speaking of which, I have one for you. Check out Husson's slate and tell me if you like their chances.
I think that an undefeated season gives a team the best chance in Pool B.

Beyond that, a team needs help in the schedule.  Simpson or Tommies winning the conference (or UWRF for that matter) really help Northwestern at one loss.

Husson's running the table would be an interesting challenge for us Pool B watchers.  The NAC needs to figure out how to get a Pool A bid.  Otherwise, I think that Wesley, then Salisbury and the UAA schools will feast off the Pool B bids at the expense of the NAC teams.

Please remember that the SLIAC takes a bid from Pool B when it goes to Pool A in 2010..


Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on August 28, 2008, 01:30:41 pm
Northwestern can have a chance with anywhere from unbeaten to two losses, but you really need to pay nearly as much attention to the Pool B competition as you do what Northwestern does. Since the NWC gets its automatic bid this year and the PAC has long since moved on, it's as ralph mentioned: The ACFC and UAA teams who are going to take first crack at them.

If Northwestern has one fewer loss than the best UAA team, for instance, then the schedule strength and which ones you beat really come in to play.

This year I'd pencil Wesley, Salisbury and Case in, but you of course never know which way things will go. Maybe four candidates will be so impressive that one of the Bs will get in over a C.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 28, 2008, 01:44:34 am
Okay!  Fourth weekend!

The Pool B teams will come from the UAA, the Independents, the SLIAC, the ACFC and the UMAC.

UAA

Wash St Louis -- Bears are off to a good start at 3-0 and with a quality (non-in-region) win over Witt. Still have games versus the NCAC (non-in-region), Rhodes (in-region) and the UAA.  Plays Case on Nov 15th.

CWRU --  3-0 and 7 more in-region games, including Wooster

SLIAC

Huntingdon -- 3-0.  It won't surprise me if they run the SLIAC table in the next five games.  A good game versus HSC in on Nov 8th, and they catch LaGrange on Nov 15th.  That LaGrange game might be a lot of fun, especially if some Alabama versus Georgia rivalry spills over into that game and the game is for the SLIAC crown.

LaGrange (4-0 3-1/2-0 in-region) might be undefeated in the SLIAC play as well.  (Correction. Thanks to Ron Boerger.)

ACFC

Del Valley has hurt both Salisbury and Wesley.  Wesley also took a big hit from Hanna.   ;)  :o  Let's see what happens with Salisbury Wesley.

UMAC

Northwestern has a loss versus Simpson and play the Tommies on Nov 15th.  They are a real remote darkhorse at this time.

Independents

Chapman gave up a TD in the last minute to lose to Whitworth...too bad!


Taking a stab at this point (and projecting that there will be three bids in the Handbook)...

Wash StL
Salisbury/Wesley winner
CWRU (great chance to post a strong in-region record and OWP and OOWP.  (Opponents' winning percentage and opponents' opponents' winning percentage)

On the radar screen...
Huntingdon/LaGrange winner.
Northwestern MN
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on September 28, 2008, 08:01:11 pm
LaGrange is 3-1/(2-0 IR) but the loss was to NAIA Shorter.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2008, 01:22:37 pm
Shorter is a second-year program so I'm not as likely to give LaGrange a pass on that one.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 07:13:30 pm
2008 Football Handbook (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/3_football_handbook.pdf) is out!

Bid allocation:

Pool A -- 23 bids
Pool B -- 2 bids
Pool C -- 7 bids
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 07:30:25 pm
Pool B contains 27 schools this year.

North Region -- 8 teams

The SLIAC-6  (Pool A in 2011)
UAA members: UChicago and CWRU

West Region -- 7 teams

The UMAC-5  (Crown*, MN-Morris, Martin Luther, Northwestern MN, St Scholastica)
Chapman
Neb Wesleyan
Macalester


South Region -- 8 teams

ACFC 3 (Frostburg St. Salisbury, Wesley)
SLIAC affiliates -- Huntingdon and LaGrange
UAA 2 -- Washington MO, Carnegie Mellon
Gallaudet -- (will affiliate with the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)

East Region -- 4 teams

Becker, Husson, Mount Ida and SUNY-Maritime  (These four teams will compete in the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)


*Crown is in the fourth year of provisional status.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 09:29:19 pm
Copied from the Around the Nation board...

Quote
I cannot figure out how they got to 2 bids.   ???

I have not seen a bid calculation method that has been used in any other Handbook that can give 2 bids.

I think that they got it wrong by anything other than fiat.

I can get it to 2 Pool B bids by doing it this way.

23 participating Pool A conferences that have 197 eligible teams that compete in the playoffs, plus 10 more teams that compete in a Pool A eligible conference (the NESCAC) equals 207 teams that comprise Pool A.  (The NESCAC has not taken its authorized bid.)

23 conferences divided into 207 teams will give an access ratio of 1:9.00.
If Neb Wesleyan has declared for the NAIA playoffs, that gives only 26 Pool B teams.

26 divided by 9 = 2.89 which truncates to 2 bids.

I don't know!  I give up.  ::)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 03, 2008, 09:30:13 pm
They still still have Brockport liisted as a Pool B team. Didn't they have some editing problems in this book in the past? First time they haven't been able to divide correctly though.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 09:31:30 pm
They still still have Brockport liisted as a Pool B team. Didn't they have some editing problems in this book in the past? First time they haven't been able to divide correctly though.
Yes, but they also have correctly listed Brockport in the NJAC!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 03, 2008, 09:34:38 pm
Handbook is out (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/3_football_handbook.pdf)!

Pool B gets 2 bids this year!

I have looked at the numbers for the Pool B bids, and I cannot calculate how they got there!

There are 23 conferences with 199 participating members.  That gives an access ratio of 1:8.30.

There are 27 Pool B teams.  That should give 3 Pool B bids, if we use the usual calculations that are in the other Handbooks.

Well, what happens if we use the calculation that's in the DIII handbook?

  • The number of berths available for Pool B institutions is determined by dividing the
    number of institutions eligible in Pool B by the access ratio for Pool A (total number
    of institutions in conferences with automatic qualification divided by the number of
    Division III conferences with automatic qualification).
    Pool B = (number of independents and non-qualifying conference members) divided
    by (the access ratio for Pool A) - with the result truncated to the nearest whole number
    (e.g., 5.61 truncates to 5).

So, 27 divided by 8.3* = 3 (truncated).

By golly, you're right!

* My calculation produces a 1:8.65 ratio, but the truncated outcome is the same.

I cannot figure out how they got to 2 bids.   ???

I have not seen a bid calculation method that has been used in any other Handbook that can give 2 bids.

I think that they got it wrong by anything other than fiat.

SCANDAL!

Although, I suppose it's possible that the entire NCAA staff is arithmetically illiterate.  Don't laugh, I've seen some amazing stoopitude in some amazing places.  Okay, go ahead and laugh, if it keeps you from going insane.

Still, it's hard not to suspect that anti-Pool B sentiment could be a motivation.   I imagine that if anti-Pool B sentiment were the reason, the defense might be that Pool C bids may be used for Pool B:

Seven berths (Pool C) will be reserved for institutions from
automatic-qualifying conferences that are not their conference champions,
and the remaining teams in Pool B.

However, that defense overlooks the issue of access, that is supposed to be the overarching philosophy in designing the championship.   There are 199 Pool A teams, guaranteed 23 Pool A bids.  Equity demands that the 27 Pool B teams be guaranteed 3 Pool B bids.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 03, 2008, 09:38:45 pm
It didn't appear that many Pool B schools had representation on these committees. Plus I'm assuming that Pool B schools are not eligible for Pool C bids (witness NWC champ last season.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 09:39:42 pm
redswarm81,

I recalculated Pool B with an access ratio of 1:9 (23 conferences of 197 teams plus the 10 NESCAC teams, even tho' the conference does not take the bid.  207 divided by 23 = 9.00)

If Neb Wesleyan has declared for the NAIA, then that gives 26 teams and 2 bids.

If that is the way that the calculation has been done in previous years, then no one "in the know" would complain.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 09:49:42 pm
It didn't appear that many Pool B schools had representation on these committees. Plus I'm assuming that Pool B schools are not eligible for Pool C bids (witness NWC champ last season.)
Pool B schools are eligible for Pool C bids.  Some of us fans just lost that argument for Whitworth and the NWC with the committee in 2007.   ;)   :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 03, 2008, 09:55:01 pm
redswarm81,

I recalculated Pool B with an access ratio of 1:9 (23 conferences of 197 team plus the 10 NESCAC teams, even tho' the conference does not take the bid.  207 divided by 23 = 9.00)

If Neb Wesleyan has declared for the NAIA, then that gives 26 teams and 2 bids.

If that is the way that the calculation has been done in previous years, then no one "in the know" would complain.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on October 03, 2008, 10:00:29 pm
I'm not willing to look it up, 'cause I'm sure someone here will remember - didn't we just last year have a situation of # of pool B bids changed in basketball LATE in the season?

Who ARE these guys (and didn't they go to college)? :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 10:00:58 pm

  • What does the NCAA gain by shrouding its bid calculation process in secrecy?  I can understand the desire to keep the selection committee's negotiations private, but teams really ought to know how their path to selection is defined.
I think that Pat Coleman can get that information for us and give it to us in one of the podcasts.  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 10:01:30 pm
I'm not willing to look it up, 'cause I'm sure someone here will remember - didn't we just last year have a situation of # of pool B bids changed in basketball LATE in the season?

Who ARE these guys (and didn't they go to college)? :D
Yeah, some D-1 school!   :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 03, 2008, 10:33:35 pm
If Neb Wesleyan has declared for the NAIA, wouldn't they have to tell somebody?


Kind of the other way around. Nebraska Wesleyan always declares NAIA in football.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 11:06:03 pm
If Neb Wesleyan has declared for the NAIA, wouldn't they have to tell somebody?


Kind of the other way around. Nebraska Wesleyan always declares NAIA in football.
Okay, I guess that this is the way that the calculation for 2 Pool B bids was derived.   :)


redswarm81,

I recalculated Pool B with an access ratio of 1:9 (23 conferences of 197 teams plus the 10 NESCAC teams, even tho' the conference does not take the bid.  207 divided by 23 = 9.00)

If Neb Wesleyan has declared for the NAIA, then that gives 26 teams and 2 bids.

If that is the way that the calculation has been done in previous years, then no one "in the know" would complain.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on October 03, 2008, 11:22:58 pm
IF that is indeed the basis for their determination, they may want to reword the Handbook: "nearest whole number" for their example (5.61) is 6, not 5.  For the present case it would be 3, not 2.  Perhaps they should just drop "nearest" and say "truncated to the (last) whole number"?  Thus even 2.91 = 2! ;D

I wonder if we'll see an 8th week change in the pool B allotment? ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 04, 2008, 10:14:39 am
IF that is indeed the basis for their determination, they may want to reword the Handbook: "nearest whole number" for their example (5.61) is 6, not 5.  For the present case it would be 3, not 2.  Perhaps they should just drop "nearest" and say "truncated to the (last) whole number"?  Thus even 2.91 = 2! ;D

I wonder if we'll see an 8th week change in the pool B allotment? ;)
Well, we heard it here first!   :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 04, 2008, 10:56:37 am
IF that is indeed the basis for their determination, they may want to reword the Handbook: "nearest whole number" for their example (5.61) is 6, not 5.  For the present case it would be 3, not 2.  Perhaps they should just drop "nearest" and say "truncated to the (last) whole number"?  Thus even 2.91 = 2! ;D

I wonder if we'll see an 8th week change in the pool B allotment? ;)

Pool B = (number of independents and non-qualifying conference members) divided
by (the access ratio for Pool A) - with the result truncated to the nearest whole number
(e.g., 5.61 truncates to 5).


It rankles, but they have used the term "truncate" accurately.  Truncating necessarily requires reducing the result.  It's clear that they would be comfortable with 2 Pool B bids if the calculation produced a result of 2.99.

(In full NCAA Rules geek mode now) Since the process is truncation, the nearest whole number is necessarily the last whole number.

Ultimately, applying Occam's Razor, I would have to figure that  innumeracy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innumeracy_(book)) is a likelier explanation than that "stand on one foot, pat your head and rub your tummy" calculation that Ralph has constructed.  If arithmetic illiteracy is indeed the answer, then surely there ought to be a change in the Pool B allotment at some point.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 04, 2008, 05:47:20 pm
Updated for October 4th.


Okay!  Fourth weekend!

The Pool B teams will come from the UAA, the Independents, the SLIAC, the ACFC and the UMAC.


Taking a stab at this point (and reading that there will be three two bids in the Handbook)...

Wash StL  Loses at Rhodes 10-28  Bad loss to a mid-rung SCAC team.
Salisbury/Wesley winner  Salisbury wins 48-17 over NNA; Wesley wins 38-6 over Frostburg St.
CWRU (great chance to post a strong in-region record and OWP and OOWP.  (Opponents' winning percentage and opponents' opponents' winning percentage)  Playing Denison today.

On the radar screen...
Huntingdon/LaGrange winner.  Both teams won their SLIAC games.
Northwestern MN  Plays Macalester tonight
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 04, 2008, 05:50:48 pm
CWRU defeated Denison, 45-17.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 06, 2008, 08:58:14 am
Just wondering, what's "Pool B"????

j/k
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 06, 2008, 09:34:38 am
CWRU defeated Denison, 45-17.

45-14
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on October 06, 2008, 01:26:22 pm
Northwestern over Macalester 49-13

Is it safe to say Northwestern is now a contender for a bid?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 06, 2008, 01:59:36 pm
Not really, not with only two bids available.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 06, 2008, 02:01:43 pm
Northwestern over Macalester 49-13

Is it safe to say Northwestern is now a contender for a bid?
Unfortunately, no.

IMHO, they are the new kids on the block!

Simpson is a bad loss.  Pool B just lost a bid.  They needed to run the table as Huntingdon needs to.

I will assume that an "ODAC-Champion" H-SC is regionally ranked when Huntingdon plays them.  If Huntingdon runs the table, and has a win over a regionally ranked team, then they are on the table somewhere when Pool B is being considered.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on October 06, 2008, 02:50:41 pm
Northwestern over Macalester 49-13

Is it safe to say Northwestern is now a contender for a bid?
Unfortunately, no.

IMHO, they are the new kids on the block!

Simpson is a bad loss.  Pool B just lost a bid.  They needed to run the table as Huntingdon needs to.

I will assume that an "ODAC-Champion" H-SC is regionally ranked when Huntingdon plays them.  If Huntingdon runs the table, and has a win over a regionally ranked team, then they are on the table somewhere when Pool B is being considered.  :)

It would also be a big boost to Huntingdon/LaGrange if Maryville could somehow run the table in the USAC.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2008, 06:49:18 pm
Pool B update (IMHO):

1)  CWRU now 5-0 after a win over a good Wooster team. (Plays Carnegie Mellon on the Nov 8th and Wash U on the 15th.)

2a)  Salisbury -- 5-1/2-1 Good win over SJF in 4OT 58-52 (non-in-region game tho') Has in-region loss to Del Valley.
2b)   Wesley -- 3-1/2-1 Defeated I-FCS Iona 23-12.  Has in-region loss to Del Valley.  Plays Salisbury on Nov 1st.  For whom do Huntingdon & LaGrange root?

3a) Huntingdon -- 5-0/4-0. Defeated Eureka 62-0.  Plays at Westminster on Oct 25th, hosts H-SC on Nov 8th and at LaGrange on Nov 15th.  Great schedule remains to show the committee something.
3b) LaGrange -- 5-1/4-0.  Westminster on Oct 18th.  Hosts Huntingdon on Nov 15th

Radar screen --

Northwestern MN.  5-1/5-1 should probably considered #6 at this time.   Beat Martin Luther 45-10.  Hosts St Thomas on Nov 15th.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on October 11, 2008, 11:21:56 pm

It would also be a big boost to Huntingdon/LaGrange if Maryville could somehow run the table in the USAC.

Well, so much for that.  :-\
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 12, 2008, 02:01:16 pm

It would also be a big boost to Huntingdon/LaGrange if Maryville could somehow run the table in the USAC.

Well, so much for that.  :-\
I wonder if the Regional Rankings will reserve a place around 9th or 10th for the best team (Pool A winner) in the USA South.  When Pool B is being discussed, beating a regional ranked team (more specifically the results versus regionally ranked teams) is one of the criteria.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 13, 2008, 12:16:18 am
Pool B update (IMHO):

1)  CWRU now 5-0 after a win over a good Wooster team. (Plays Carnegie Mellon on the Nov 8th and Wash U on the 15th.)

2a)  Salisbury -- 5-1/2-1 Good win over SJF in 4OT 58-52 (non-in-region game tho') Has in-region loss to Del Valley.
2b)   Wesley -- 3-1/2-1 Defeated I-FCS Iona 23-12.  Has in-region loss to Del Valley.  Plays Salisbury on Nov 1st.  For whom do Huntingdon & LaGrange root?

3a) Huntingdon -- 5-0/4-0. Defeated Eureka 62-0.  Plays at Westminster on Oct 25th, hosts H-SC on Nov 8th and at LaGrange on Nov 15th.  Great schedule remains to show the committee something.
3b) LaGrange -- 5-1/4-0.  Westminster on Oct 18th.  Hosts Huntingdon on Nov 15th

Ralph,
 This breakdown works about perfectly, because as listeners to the podcast will find out, they are likely playing for bids as you have them slotted here.

CWRU despite the weak schedule is a lock if undefeated.

Wesley and Salisbury have big problems with the non-division and out-of-region games, coupled with the in-region losses to DV and the h2h game coming up. The loser could be sitting on something like a 4-2 regional record ... might be tough to compare with an 8-2 in Pool C.

The SLIAC looks like it's basically getting its automatic bid a year early, as the problems above, coupled with the probability of one of the two Deep South teams finishing with one loss (or possibly undefeated), makes them a pretty good shot at another spot.

I will write more about Pool B in ATN ... the observations at that time will be a lot more official. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on October 13, 2008, 11:58:01 am
come on K-Mack, if you're going to quote somebody, you can't leave out the most important part.  takes it completely out of context.

After Huntingdon loses to Hampen-Sydney and CWRU loses to Washington U., Northwestern is going to be looking pretty good at 9-1.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2008, 02:02:26 pm
come on K-Mack, if you're going to quote somebody, you can't leave out the most important part.  takes it completely out of context.

After Huntingdon loses to Hampen-Sydney and CWRU loses to Washington U., Northwestern is going to be looking pretty good at 9-1.


Actually I think that they are no better than #4 by Strength of Schedule if they finish 9-1.  I believe that the Simpson game was/is make-or-break.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2008, 02:05:59 pm
Thanks for the acknowledgement in the podcast, Pat and Keith.   :)

Which calculation worked to get to 3 Pool B bids?  The NESCAC schools counting in the Pool A numerator but no NESCAC in the Pool A conference denominator?

In fact, with Anna Marie and Castleton State scheduled to come on board next season, that probably means that there will be 3 Pool B teams next year as well.  (Did I forget any other new programs that will end up in Pool B?)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on October 13, 2008, 02:32:59 pm
After ... CWRU loses to Washington U., Northwestern is going to be looking pretty good at 9-1.

That's a pretty bold prediction the way Case has been playing.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on October 13, 2008, 04:40:12 pm
I'm full of bold predictions.  I'd say it's a pretty bold prediction to say Northwestern is out of it based upon a close lose to a solid Simpson team.  I'd put Simpson, St. Thomas or UW-River Falls up against any opponents of other Pool B contenders. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on October 13, 2008, 08:20:15 pm
I'm full of bold predictions.  I'd say it's a pretty bold prediction to say Northwestern is out of it based upon a close lose to a solid Simpson team.  I'd put Simpson, St. Thomas or UW-River Falls up against any opponents of other Pool B contenders. 

I don't think the non-conference is Northwestern's problem. I think the UMAC schedule is going to be. That is a solid non-conference slate but it's nothing spectacular. The UMAC though is quite a bit weaker than Wesley/Salisbury's schedule, the UAA. I also would rate the SLIAC schedule as tougher than the UMAC but not by as much as the others.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 14, 2008, 12:11:05 pm
Thanks for the acknowledgement in the podcast, Pat and Keith.   :)

Which calculation worked to get to 3 Pool B bids?  The NESCAC schools counting in the Pool A numerator but no NESCAC in the Pool A conference denominator?

In fact, with Anna Marie and Castleton State scheduled to come on board next season, that probably means that there will be 3 Pool B teams next year as well.  (Did I forget any other new programs that will end up in Pool B?)

Neither. I think I hinted at it in the podcast but basically the football committee did not have proper paperwork on Northwestern and St. Scholastica being eligible in football this year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on October 14, 2008, 12:52:44 pm
IF that is indeed the basis for their determination, they may want to reword the Handbook: "nearest whole number" for their example (5.61) is 6, not 5.  For the present case it would be 3, not 2.  Perhaps they should just drop "nearest" and say "truncated to the (last) whole number"?  Thus even 2.91 = 2! ;D

I wonder if we'll see an 8th week change in the pool B allotment? ;)
Well, we heard it here first!   :D

For the record, the change came in the 8th week! ;D

(Though getting into the 'mind' of the NCAA has me worried about my mental health. :o)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 14, 2008, 01:27:56 pm
Thanks for the acknowledgement in the podcast, Pat and Keith.   :)

Which calculation worked to get to 3 Pool B bids?  The NESCAC schools counting in the Pool A numerator but no NESCAC in the Pool A conference denominator?

In fact, with Anna Marie and Castleton State scheduled to come on board next season, that probably means that there will be 3 Pool B teams next year as well.  (Did I forget any other new programs that will end up in Pool B?)

Neither. I think I hinted at it in the podcast but basically the football committee did not have proper paperwork on Northwestern and St. Scholastica being eligible in football this year.
Thanks for the response.  (Now we know.  The NESCAC neither helps nor hurts.  That is good and fair.)

We can get back to the old rant that the NCAA doesn't support the members of the committee in the way that we fans want it supported!

The committee members take on that job to help the student-athletes.  Every person that I have met who has served on one of the varying NCAA committees is a loyal professional to the calling of supporting student-athletes.  The committee members deserve more respect and support from the administration at the NCAA offices!   :)

Thanks for the quality "journalism" Pat!  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 14, 2008, 11:34:11 pm
Pool B contains 27 schools this year.

North Region -- 8 teams


The SLIAC-6  (Pool A in 2011)
UAA members: UChicago and CWRU

West Region -- 7 teams

The UMAC-5  (Crown, MN-Morris, Martin Luther, Northwestern MN, St Scholastica.  CSS is omitted in the Handbook.)
Chapman
Neb Wesleyan (Still in the 10Oct08 revision of the Handbook (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/3_football_handbook.pdf)), but declared for the NAIA.
Macalester


South Region -- 8 teams

ACFC 3 (Frostburg St. Salisbury, Wesley)
SLIAC affiliates -- Huntingdon and LaGrange
UAA 2 -- Washington MO, Carnegie Mellon
Gallaudet -- (will affiliate with the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)

East Region -- 4 teams

Becker, Husson, Mount Ida and SUNY-Maritime  (These four teams will compete in the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)

Final edit for archive sake.

27 Pool B teams (as confirmed by Pat Coleman.)

Access ratio is 197 Pool A teams from 23 Pool A conferences = 8.56

28 divided by 8.56 = 3.27, which is truncated to 3 bids.


Early projections for 2009 --

Pool B schools increase with the addition of  Anna Marie and, Castleton State.

New programs in Pool A conferences include Hendrix in the SCAC.  The access ratio is 198 / 23 = 8.60.

30 Pool B schools divided by 8.56 = 3.48, which truncates to 3 bids.


Corrections are always appreciated.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 14, 2008, 11:54:37 pm
Twenty-seven teams declared: Pool B = Becker, Blackburn, Carnegie Mellon, Case Western Reserve, Chapman, Chicago, Crown, Eureka, Frostburg State, Gallaudet,
Greenville, Huntingdon, Husson, LaGrange, Macalester, MacMurray, Martin Luther, Minnesota-Morris, Mount Ida, Northwestern, Principia, Salisbury, St. Scholastica, SUNY-Maritime, Washington U., Wesley, Westminster (Mo.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 14, 2008, 11:59:07 pm
Pool B . . . .

East Region -- 4 teams


Becker, Husson, Mount Ida and SUNY-Maritime  (These four teams will compete in the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)




Early projections for 2009 --

Pool B schools increase with the addition of Crown, Anna Marie, Castleton State.

New programs in Pool A conferences include Hendrix in the SCAC.  The access ratio is 198 / 23 = 8.60.

29 Pool B schools divided by 8.60 = 3.37, which truncates to 3 bids.

Norwich is leaving the Empire 8 at the end of the 2008 season, and will be a member of the North Atlantic Conference for 2009.   The Empire 8 will retain its Pool A status for at least the 2009 and 2010 seasons, even if its membership is only 6 teams for both seasons.  Do we know if Norwich in 2009 will be counted as a Pool B team?

I don't think the end result is any different, though.  Pool A without Norwich = 197, divided by 23 conferences = 8.57 access ratio.

30 Pool B schools / 8.57 = 3.50, which still truncates to 3 Pool B teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on October 15, 2008, 08:56:22 am
Is it correct that they take floor( [number of Pool B teams] / [access ratio] ) rather than rounding?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 15, 2008, 09:47:57 am
Truncate is the stated process.   Here's link to handbook.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/3_football_handbook.pdf
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 15, 2008, 05:56:59 pm
Twenty-seven teams declared: Pool B = Becker, Blackburn, Carnegie Mellon, Case Western Reserve, Chapman, Chicago, Crown, Eureka, Frostburg State, Gallaudet,
Greenville, Huntingdon, Husson, LaGrange, Macalester, MacMurray, Martin Luther, Minnesota-Morris, Mount Ida, Northwestern, Principia, Salisbury, St. Scholastica, SUNY-Maritime, Washington U., Wesley, Westminster (Mo.)
Pat, thanks for listing the Correct Pool B's.

The discrepancy in my numbers and the correct list is Nebraska Wesleyan!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 15, 2008, 06:06:48 pm

Norwich is leaving the Empire 8 at the end of the 2008 season, and will be a member of the North Atlantic Conference for 2009.   The Empire 8 will retain its Pool A status for at least the 2009 and 2010 seasons, even if its membership is only 6 teams for both seasons.  Do we know if Norwich in 2009 will be counted as a Pool B team?

Thanks for correcting that!

I have been on the road all day and remembered that after I left the computer!   :(

I think that Norwich becomes a Pool B next year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on October 15, 2008, 11:37:21 pm
so you're saying there's a chance ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 16, 2008, 01:07:53 am
I'm full of bold predictions.  I'd say it's a pretty bold prediction to say Northwestern is out of it based upon a close lose to a solid Simpson team.  I'd put Simpson, St. Thomas or UW-River Falls up against any opponents of other Pool B contenders. 

I don't think the non-conference is Northwestern's problem. I think the UMAC schedule is going to be. That is a solid non-conference slate but it's nothing spectacular. The UMAC though is quite a bit weaker than Wesley/Salisbury's schedule, the UAA. I also would rate the SLIAC schedule as tougher than the UMAC but not by as much as the others.

I don't think the schedule is necessarily Northwestern's problem either, it's that the projections include undefeated Case, undefeated Huntingdon, undefeated LaGrange (for playoff purposes the NAIA loss won't count) and the Wesley/Salisbury winner, if it has one loss, there's a chance that one loss is to the MAC champion or a team that finishes a lot better than Simpson. Plus the winner will get an OWP boost by playing that game, since neither of those teams is likely to lose again. Simpson/St. Thomas/River Falls is probably not going to compare to Del Val/CNU/Wesley/St. John Fisher, sorry.

Also, Northwestern has to actually beat St. Thomas, which is not looking like a given at this point.

It's hard to leapfrog an undefeated team based on the playoff criteria, which includes in-region record, OWP and OOWP, etc.

Nobody's saying they're out of it, just having the loss already, they need some chips to fall.

9-1 Northwestern vs. 9-1 Case vs. 9-1 Huntingdon ... now that could get interesting.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 16, 2008, 01:00:38 pm
By the way, big ups to Ralph "The Pool B Master" Turner.

(+1 karma...)

Sorry so late in doing this for you. 

What is "Pool B" by the way?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on October 16, 2008, 01:48:07 pm
How do you + or - karma anyways?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2008, 02:32:57 pm
By the way, big ups to Ralph "The Pool B Master" Turner.

(+1 karma...)

Sorry so late in doing this for you. 

What is "Pool B" by the way?
Don't you love the AQ!!

It has helped the Presidents AC in more ways than just football.  The AQ in hoops has been good, too!

Thanks Bob!

You get Karma added when you have 200 posts.  Karma is the ability to applaud or smite a poster.

I rarely smite.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: KitchenSink on October 16, 2008, 02:41:58 pm
How do you + or - karma anyways?

Once you accumulate enough posts, and send an appropriate stack of cash to Keith and Pat, you get to karma posters.

And please hurry - we don't need to be talking about any more bailouts.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 16, 2008, 03:07:20 pm
Don't you love the AQ!!


Actually, to me, Ralph, the AQ is kinda boring.  In fact, had the PAC had the AQ a couple years earlier, I might not be getting the big "D" right now.

Those long, late nights calculating"What if.....".
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 16, 2008, 05:08:27 pm

And please hurry - we don't need to be talking about any more bailouts.

LOL. I think we're in good shape. We have the credit we need and the cash we need so as long as the internet advertising business doesn't totally go in the toilet, I am confident we won't need to ask for a bailout.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 19, 2008, 12:26:34 am
Pool B update (IMHO):

1)  CWRU now 5-0 after a win over a good Wooster team. (Plays Carnegie Mellon on the Nov 8th and Wash U on the 15th.)

2a)  Salisbury -- 5-1/2-1 Good win over SJF in 4OT 58-52 (non-in-region game tho') Has in-region loss to Del Valley.
2b)   Wesley -- 3-1/2-1 Defeated I-FCS Iona 23-12.  Has in-region loss to Del Valley.  Plays Salisbury on Nov 1st.  For whom do Huntingdon & LaGrange root?

3a) Huntingdon -- 5-0/4-0. Defeated Eureka 62-0.  Plays at Westminster on Oct 25th, hosts H-SC on Nov 8th and at LaGrange on Nov 15th.  Great schedule remains to show the committee something.
3b) LaGrange -- 5-1/4-0.  Westminster on Oct 18th.  Hosts Huntingdon on Nov 15th

CWRU despite the weak schedule is a lock if undefeated.

Wesley and Salisbury have big problems with the non-division and out-of-region games, coupled with the in-region losses to DV and the h2h game coming up. The loser could be sitting on something like a 4-2 regional record ... might be tough to compare with an 8-2 in Pool C.

The SLIAC looks like it's basically getting its automatic bid a year early, as the problems above, coupled with the probability of one of the two Deep South teams finishing with one loss (or possibly undefeated), makes them a pretty good shot at another spot.

Where does Husson fit in, if they win their last two games to finish 7-0 v. D-III competition?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2008, 08:25:15 am
Pool B update (IMHO):

1)  CWRU now 5-0 after a win over a good Wooster team. (Plays Carnegie Mellon on the Nov 8th and Wash U on the 15th.)

2a)  Salisbury -- 5-1/2-1 Good win over SJF in 4OT 58-52 (non-in-region game tho') Has in-region loss to Del Valley.
2b)   Wesley -- 3-1/2-1 Defeated I-FCS Iona 23-12.  Has in-region loss to Del Valley.  Plays Salisbury on Nov 1st.  For whom do Huntingdon & LaGrange root?

3a) Huntingdon -- 5-0/4-0. Defeated Eureka 62-0.  Plays at Westminster on Oct 25th, hosts H-SC on Nov 8th and at LaGrange on Nov 15th.  Great schedule remains to show the committee something.
3b) LaGrange -- 5-1/4-0.  Westminster on Oct 18th.  Hosts Huntingdon on Nov 15th

CWRU despite the weak schedule is a lock if undefeated.

Wesley and Salisbury have big problems with the non-division and out-of-region games, coupled with the in-region losses to DV and the h2h game coming up. The loser could be sitting on something like a 4-2 regional record ... might be tough to compare with an 8-2 in Pool C.

The SLIAC looks like it's basically getting its automatic bid a year early, as the problems above, coupled with the probability of one of the two Deep South teams finishing with one loss (or possibly undefeated), makes them a pretty good shot at another spot.

Where does Husson fit in, if they win their last two games to finish 7-0 v. D-III competition?
I think that their OWP/OOWP slots them about 4th or 5th.  Playing Utica and Springfield from the E8 helps the OOWP, but the NAC teams* do not give a good OOWP to Husson.  I guess they go on the watch list with Northwestern.  The Northwestern win over UW-River Falls got a little bit better yesterday as UWRF beat #7 UW-Eau Claire.

(*SLIAC is not much stronger as a conference.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2008, 01:47:21 pm
Pool B update for Week #7

1)  CWRU beat Ohio Wesleyan 35-7;  plays at Hiram next.

2a) Salisbury beat lake Erie 35-19; plays at Becker next.
2b) Wesley beat NNA 48-0; plays at Webber International.

3a) Huntingdon beat Blackburn 45-0;  plays at Westminster MO.
3b) LaGrange beat Westminster MO 37-20; plays at Principia.


On the radar...

Northwestern MN (6-1/6-1 in-region)  beat 35-14 St Scholastica; plays at MN-Morris.

Husson (5-2/5-0 in-region); Plays (in-region) Gallaudet next Saturday.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 19, 2008, 02:44:24 pm
Pool B update for Week #7

1)  CWRU beat Ohio Wesleyan 35-7;  plays at Hiram next.

2a) Salisbury beat lake Erie 35-19; plays at Becker next.
2b) Wesley beat NNA 48-0; plays at Webber International.

3a) Huntingdon beat Blackburn 45-0;  plays at Westminster MO.
3b) LaGrange beat Westminster MO 37-20; plays at Principia.


On the radar...

Northwestern MN (6-1/6-1 in-region)  beat 35-14 St Scholastica; plays at MN-Morris.

Husson (5-2/5-0 in-region); Plays (in-region) Gallaudet next Saturday.

...and darkhorse Chapman lost their second in-region game.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 19, 2008, 09:04:37 pm
How do you + or - karma anyways?

Once you accumulate enough posts, and send an appropriate stack of cash to Keith and Pat, you get to karma posters.

I'm supposed to be getting stacks of cash!?!?!

I gotta start opening my mail.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DutchFan2004 on October 19, 2008, 09:19:15 pm
How do you + or - karma anyways?

Once you accumulate enough posts, and send an appropriate stack of cash to Keith and Pat, you get to karma posters.

I'm supposed to be getting stacks of cash!?!?!

I gotta start opening my mail.

No more mail for you from me.  If you don't open it you can't find your money.   ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 25, 2008, 10:47:52 pm
No change in Pool B.

Everybody won.  Next weekend, Salisbury hosts Wesley.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: muledaddy on October 26, 2008, 05:26:59 pm



Mates,

 What are the odds that only 1 of the Salisbury-Wesley duo get  a playoff bid, rather than both like last

year?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 26, 2008, 05:42:54 pm
Not much of a chance they both get in
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 26, 2008, 06:37:51 pm
Depends on what the other Pool B contenders do.  If CWRU loses to both CMU and WUStL (heaven forbid) and Salisbury and Wesley win their other games they probably would. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 26, 2008, 09:40:35 pm
Salisbury could possibly with two losses because of their schedule, but a Wesley loss would leave them at no better than 3-2 in region . Del Vals misfortunes of late don't help either team
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on October 27, 2008, 01:41:21 pm
Suppose Huntingdon and LaGrange win out until they play one another on November 15th and the game is a good one and very close on the 15th.

If LC wins do you think HC still gets a bid as a 9-1 runner-up but with a win over Hampden-Sydney?

What if HC wins the showdown--does LC have a chance for a bid at 8-1?

What would an HC loss at H-S do to the equation? (Don't worry HC, I'm pulling for you guys to win that one  8).)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2008, 05:10:31 pm
Please remember that there are only 6 Pool C bids.  HSU probably has this region sewn up for one of the bids.

The Opponents' opponents' winning percentage from the SLIAC is weak.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 27, 2008, 05:15:42 pm
Please remember that there are only 6 Pool C bids.  HSU probably has this region sewn up for one of the bids.

The Opponents' opponents' winning percentage from the SLIAC is weak.

Boy, that simple clause "not in priority order" really makes Selection a black box, doesn't it?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 27, 2008, 06:12:06 pm
I don't think La Grange has a chance if it loses to Huntingdon.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2008, 12:17:58 am
Salisbury could possibly with two losses because of their schedule, but a Wesley loss would leave them at no better than 3-2 in region . Del Vals misfortunes of late don't help either team

I agree, although this one might really be at the committee's discretion. Wesley had a key in-region game with CNU canceled by weather, and both teams, through no fault of their own really, have had to schedule anyone they could get their hands on, which means about six in-region games for both.

I think most of what's been said here is on point, that it depends on the rest of Pool B, but that it doesn't look good for the loser.

Certainly Del Val winning the MAC and SJF winning the E8 and CNU winning the USAC wouldn't hurt Salisbury.

It's a pretty good bet either Wesley or Salisbury would beat the SLIAC winner, and possibly Case, but that's not how this playoff thing works, is it?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on October 29, 2008, 09:31:35 am
I don't think La Grange has a chance if it loses to Huntingdon.

Does Huntingdon have a chance for Pool C if they beat Hampden-Sydney, but lose to LaGrange?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 29, 2008, 09:35:34 am
Does Huntingdon have a chance for Pool C if they beat Hampden-Sydney, but lose to LaGrange?

That's listed in the Pool C thread.  And, yes, Huntingdon would be among those considered for a Pool C bid.  Barring a significant collapse elsewhere, I wouldn't expect it to happen, but they would be on the radar screen at 9-1.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2008, 02:35:16 pm
Regional rankings released.
http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/category/regional-rankings/
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on October 29, 2008, 03:10:41 pm
They have Huntingdon listed as 1-0 in region. I thought they had made a new rule to specifically make the conference games count as in region. Did we mis-read it or are they not following it?  ::)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 29, 2008, 04:54:18 pm
It may be that those games don't count as regional games while the SLIAC is still provisional.  Provisional might not be the right word...but until the SLIAC is eligible for an automatic bid is what I'm getting at. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on October 29, 2008, 05:43:02 pm
So are they saying that only the game against Maryville counts as "in-region?" I guess that would be the same for LaGrange?

What is the significance of in-region games?

By the way, here is the ncaa site with regional rankings:  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/master_rankings.html
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 29, 2008, 05:43:52 pm
Pool B update for Week #7

1)  CWRU beat Ohio Wesleyan 35-7;  plays at Hiram next.

2a) Salisbury beat lake Erie 35-19; plays at Becker next.
2b) Wesley beat NNA 48-0; plays at Webber International.

3a) Huntingdon beat Blackburn 45-0;  plays at Westminster MO.
3b) LaGrange beat Westminster MO 37-20; plays at Principia.


On the radar...

Northwestern MN (6-1/6-1 in-region)  beat 35-14 St Scholastica; plays at MN-Morris.

Husson (5-2/5-0 in-region); Plays (in-region) Gallaudet next Saturday.
No change in Pool B.

Everybody won.  Next weekend, Salisbury hosts Wesley.

Hey Ralph!

CWRU -           6th       N Region
Huntingdon -    7th       S Region
Salisbury -       9th       S Region
Husson -         10th      E Region
Northwestern   8th       W Region

Whither Wesley,  LaGrange?  Does this development knock any apples off the cart?

--Norton
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2008, 11:36:02 pm
Regional rankings released.
http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/category/regional-rankings/

By the way, here is the ncaa site with regional rankings:  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/master_rankings.html

I don't think they look any better there than here  ;)

I guess the PDF is kinda fancy.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 29, 2008, 11:40:29 pm
Hey Ralph!

CWRU -           6th       N Region
Huntingdon -    7th       S Region
Salisbury -       9th       S Region
Husson -         10th      E Region
Northwestern   8th       W Region

Whither Wesley,  LaGrange?  Does this development knock any apples off the cart?

--Norton

Well I'm no Ralph, but I don't think this changes the path Wesley or LaGrange has to take to get there.

And while we might need to start taking Husson seriously at 5-0, 5-2, I can't imagine they'll get in over any of the one-loss teams. I don't think there's anything overwhelming about what they've done.

I do see a possible scenario where Wesley beats Salisbury and the Sea Gulls, if St. John Fisher, Wesley, Christopher Newport and Delaware Valley are all regionally ranked, get in with two losses.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 30, 2008, 11:15:15 am
Hey Ralph!

CWRU -           6th       N Region
Huntingdon -    7th       S Region
Salisbury -       9th       S Region
Husson -         10th      E Region
Northwestern   8th       W Region

Whither Wesley,  LaGrange?  Does this development knock any apples off the cart?

--Norton

Well I'm no Ralph, but I don't think this changes the path Wesley or LaGrange has to take to get there.

And while we might need to start taking Husson seriously at 5-0, 5-2, I can't imagine they'll get in over any of the one-loss teams. I don't think there's anything overwhelming about what they've done.

I do see a possible scenario where Wesley beats Salisbury and the Sea Gulls, if St. John Fisher, Wesley, Christopher Newport and Delaware Valley are all regionally ranked, get in with two losses.

My question was more along the lines of whether Wesley and LaGrange,  the unranked teams, will climb high enough in the rankings to secure Pool B bids over currently ranked Northwestern and Husson, if Wesley and LaGrange each win their respective showdown games.

Your Salisbury scenario is an interesting variation on the McMillan Paradox, if you're suggesting that a two-loss Salisbury might get in ahead of a one-loss Wesley with a head-to-head win v. Salisbury.

As for Husson's status as an unbeaten (they're 6-0 in-Division/in-Region, 6-2 overall), what have Trinity (TX) and W&J done that's more impressive than what Husson's done?  I can't shake the suspicion that Husson is being harmed by its non-Division III losses, when by my reading of the selection criteria, those should be ignored completely.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 30, 2008, 11:25:56 am
They have Huntingdon listed as 1-0 in region. I thought they had made a new rule to specifically make the conference games count as in region. Did we mis-read it or are they not following it?  ::)

That's another circle I can't square with the selection criteria:

Quote
In order to be considered for selection for Pools B or C, an institution must play at least 50 percent of its competition against Division III in-region opponents.

If Huntingdon indeed has a 1-0 record in-region, they're ineligible for Pool B or C, it seems to me.  There are secondary effects, too.  If they're ineligible for Pool B or C, then their ranking excludes other playoff-eligible teams, who might otherwise affect other, playoff-eligible teams through the "record v. regionally ranked opponents" criterion, and the whole selection process is messed.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on October 30, 2008, 12:00:17 pm
Nice point someone made in the Daily Dose about how they also forgot that Salisbury's loss to DelVal was in region and Salisbury is actually 2-1 instead of 2-0 as they are listed. Makes you wonder sometimes who is running these organizations. I've been in the middle of a discussion on an Alabama High School football posting board of how the association here screwed up the three way tiebreaker making it advantageous to some teams to actually lose their final game this week. At least we don't have to worry about that here. Crazy stuff, man.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2008, 12:28:07 pm
Salisbury is actually 3-1, even.

See, here's the deal -- people make mistakes all the time about regional games when punching them into databases. Here at D3football.com, we handle just about every football game ourselves and most of the basketball games as well, and we know what's regional and what isn't. Also, our data is public, so not only are we constantly checking, so are the fans. So we make corrections, too -- we just make them in July and August and not in October.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 30, 2008, 11:07:39 pm
Sorry, I was away from a computer for about a day and a half!

I think that the NCAA needs to re-evaluate the SLIAC issues.  That is legislation that will change in the "in-conference is in-region"thing being sport-by-sport to being uniform in the division.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 30, 2008, 11:43:00 pm
Pool B teams (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=6060.msg967332#msg967332) are italicized in the Regional Rankings.

I see that the Pool B teams are coming off in this order as of today.

1)  CWRU
2)  Huntingdon
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on October 31, 2008, 02:22:08 pm
Pool B teams (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=6060.msg967332#msg967332) are italicized in the Regional Rankings.

I see that the Pool B teams are coming off in this order as of today.

1)  CWRU
2)  Huntingdon
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.

If you look a look a little harder, you may see it as


1)  CWRU
2) Huntingdon LaGrange
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.

 ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 31, 2008, 08:03:54 pm
Pool B teams (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=6060.msg967332#msg967332) are italicized in the Regional Rankings.

I see that the Pool B teams are coming off in this order as of today.

1)  CWRU
2)  Huntingdon
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.

How about this
1) CWRU
2) Huntingdon/LaGrange
3) Salisbury/Wesley vs Northwestern MN

Salisbury, besides the fact that their coach is (who must have forgot  ???) on the regional committee has a in region loss to Delaware Valley and the same in region record.



If you look a look a little harder, you may see it as


1)  CWRU
2) Huntingdon LaGrange
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.

 ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 01, 2008, 05:58:11 pm
Pool B teams (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=6060.msg967332#msg967332) are italicized in the Regional Rankings.

I see that the Pool B teams are coming off in this order as of today.

1)  CWRU
2)  Huntingdon
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.

How about this
1) CWRU
2) Huntingdon/LaGrange
3) Salisbury/Wesley vs Northwestern MN

Salisbury, besides the fact that their coach is (who must have forgot  ???) on the regional committee has a in region loss to Delaware Valley and the same in region record.



If you look a look a little harder, you may see it as


1)  CWRU
2) Huntingdon LaGrange
3)  Salisbury versus Northwestern MN.

 ;)
Most coaches recuse themselves when their teams are involved.

As for the Salisbury "in-region" stuff, I will bet dollars to donuts that the error was made by the NCAA administrative staff.  I can name at least 4 major gaffes/SNAFU's that the NCAA has made re: the playoffs in the last 3 years!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2008, 09:16:14 pm
Redswarm asked about my predictions for Pool B (over on the Pool C board.)

I need to see the Regional Rankings to see what the Wesley/Salisbury game did to the South.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 02, 2008, 09:48:08 pm
 Ralph

 The east board seems to think that Husson is a lock for a pool B. I see that every team they have beaten except one has no more than 2 wins. I know they are 10 in the east reginal ranking but that has to be wishful thinking on their part..
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2008, 10:32:24 pm
Ralph

 The east board seems to think that Husson is a lock for a pool B. I see that every team they have beaten except one has no more than 2 wins. I know they are 10 in the east regional ranking but that has to be wishful thinking on their part..
That makes for a very weak OWP/OOWP!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DutchFan2004 on November 03, 2008, 08:24:41 pm
Ralph

 The east board seems to think that Husson is a lock for a pool B. I see that every team they have beaten except one has no more than 2 wins. I know they are 10 in the east regional ranking but that has to be wishful thinking on their part..
That makes for a very weak OWP/OOWP!

I know it was a very early loss to Simpson but Northwestern's loss to a lower half IIAC team can not bode well for them can it?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 04, 2008, 01:20:47 pm
I'd put Simpson up against Delaware Valley any day.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 04, 2008, 02:31:50 pm
I think you would lose eight times out of 10.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 04, 2008, 02:41:28 pm
I think you would lose eight times out of 10.
prove it.  i really am curious
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2008, 03:04:23 pm
I think you would lose eight times out of 10.
prove it.  i really am curious
I looked at the three indices with which I am most familiar.

Index....................Northwestern.....Del Valley.....Margin--Neutral field
Bornpowerindex18.736.1Del Valley by 17
Lazindex56.6165.01Del Valley by 8
Massey-0.651-0.178
Massey rankings#88#57Del Valley
Massey MOV#113#42Del Valley

Del Valley's winning 8 out of 10 on a neutral field does not seem to be that bold of a prediction. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 04, 2008, 03:10:11 pm
I was referring to the simpson-del valley matchup, but with no common opponents, you really can't begin to state with any authority who the better team is unless you're talking Mount Union.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DustySJU on November 04, 2008, 04:53:50 pm
I was referring to the simpson-del valley matchup, but with no common opponents, you really can't begin to state with any authority who the better team is unless you're talking Mount Union.

Here's a common opponent for you OA, how would your team do vs The Johnnies?  :-*

St. Thomas dumps your team anyway in the season finale.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on November 05, 2008, 04:48:25 pm
2nd Regional Rankings are out (Pool B candidates in blue):

http://www.ncaa.com/photos/schools/ncaa/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/Nov.pdf
Quote

EAST REGION

1. Cortland State 8-0 8-0
2. Rensselaer 7-0 7-0
3. Ithaca 6-1 7-1
4. Montclair State 7-1 7-1
5. Rowan 7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick 6-1 6-1
7. Hobart 6-1 6-1
8. Plymouth State 7-1 8-1
9. Husson 6-0 6-2  7-0 7-2; Beat Becker 48-13.  Season over
10. Curry 7-1 8-1


NORTH REGION

1. Mount Union 7-0 8-0
2. North Central (Illinois) 8-0 8-0
3. Otterbein 8-0 8-0
4. Wabash 7-0 8-0
5. Trine 8-0 8-0
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0  8-0 9-0;  Beat CMU  38-13
7. Franklin 6-1 7-1
8. Adrian 6-1 7-1
9. Augustana (Illinois) 6-2 6-2
10. Wooster 4-2 6-2


SOUTH REGION

1. Millsaps 7-0 8-0
2. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-0 7-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1
5. Thomas More 7-1 7-1
6. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0  7-1 8-1;  Lost to H-SC 34-38
7. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1
8. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1
9. Catholic 6-1 7-1
10. Wesley 2-1 6-1  3-1 7-1; Beat D-2 Lake Erie 47-26


WEST REGION

1. Willamette 7-0 8-0
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0
3. Monmouth 9-0 9-0
4. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 4-1 7-1
5. Wisconsin-Whitewater 6-1 7-1
6. Redlands 6-1 6-1
7. Northwestern (Minnesota) 8-1 8-1; Open Date
8. St. John’s (Minnesota) 6-2 6-2
9. Gustavus Adolphus 6-2 6-2
10. Linfield 4-2 5-2

So Huntingdon's in-Region record has been corrected.

I don't understand Wesley's 2-1 in-Region record.  According to d3football.com, Wesley is 3-1 in region, and they play 5 in-Region games, thus (barely) meeting the following requirement:

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 05, 2008, 04:55:14 pm
wesley had 6 but the christopher newport game was cancelled and they are 3-1 in region
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2008, 09:26:10 pm
Here are the Regional Rankings updated.

East Region
1. Cortland State  NJAC 8-0 8-0 9-0 9-0  Beat Brockport St 42-30
2. RPI LL 7-0 7-0 7-1 7-1 Lost to Hobart 20-17
3. Ithaca E8 6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1 Beat Alfred 45-35
4. Montclair State NJAC7-1 7-1  8-1 8-1 Beat Rowan 30-14
5. Rowan NJAC 7-1 7-1  7-2 7-2  Lost to Montclair St 30-14
6. Hartwick E8 6-1 6-1 6-2 6-2  Lost to Springfield 45-31
7. Hobart LL 6-1 6-1  7-1 7-1  Beat RPI 20-17 (Clinches with a win over Rochester)
8. Plymouth State 7-1 8-1  8-1 9-1 Beat Salve Regina 34-7 Plays Maine Maritime in NEFC Bowl next week
9. Husson 6-0 6-2   7-0 7-2 Beat Becker Pool B
10. Curry NEFC 7-1 8-1  8-1 9-1  Beat Mass Dartmouth 40-20

St John Fisher clinches the E8 bid if they beat Alfred next week.
Albright clinches the MAC with a win over Del Valley.

North Region
1. Mount Union  OAC 7-0 8-0  8-0 9-0 Beat Otterbein 49-20
2. North Central  CCIW (Ill.) 8-0 8-0  9-0 9-0Beat Augustana 41-28
3. Otterbein OAC 8-0 8-0  8-1 8-1 Lost to MUC 49-20
4. Wabash  NCAC 7-0 8-0  8-0 9-0 Beat Hiram 63-0
5. Trine  MIAA 8-0 8-0       9-0 9-0  Beat Adrian 9-0
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0   8-0 9-0 Beat Carnegie Mellon  38-13  Pool B
7. Franklin  HCAC 6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1   Beat Manchester 31-20
8. Adrian MIAA 6-1 7-1    6-2 7-2 Lost to Trine 9-0
9. Augustana CCIW 6-2 6-2  6-3 6-3  Lost to North Central 41-28
10. Wooster NCAC 4-2 6-2    Beat Oberlin  27-7. (Thanks cwru70)

Northern Athletics Conference -- Aurora can clinch by beating Lakeland

South Region
1. Millsaps  SCAC 7-0 8-0  8-0  9-0 Beat Colorado College
2. Muhlenberg  CC 8-0 8-0   9-0 9-0 Beat Ursinus
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor  ASC 6-0 7-1 7-0 8-1  Beat Howard Payne
4. Hardin-Simmons ASC 7-1 7-1 8-1 8-1  Beat McMurry 45-20
5. Thomas More  PresAC 7-1 7-1 7-2 7-2  Lost to Geneva
6. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0  7-1 8-1  Lost to Hampden-Sydney 38-34  Pool B
7. Trinity (Texas) SCAC 6-1 7-1  6-2 7-2 Lost to Centre
8. Washington and Jefferson Pres AC6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1 Beat Bethany
9. Catholic ODAC 6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1 Beat Guilford 49-34 Can clinch by beating Bridgewater VA
10. Wesley 3-1 6-1  3-1 7-1 Beat Lake Erie  Pool B

West Region
1. Willamette NWC 7-0 8-0 8-0 9-0 Beat UPS 49-27
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0  Plays Pomona-Pitzer
3. Monmouth MWC 9-0 9-0  10-0 10-0 Beat Knox 56-10
4. UW-Stevens Point WIAC 4-1 7-1  5-1 8-1 Beat UWEC 21-20.  Can clinch by beating UWLacrosse
5. UW-Whitewater WIAC 6-1 7-1 7-1 8-1 Beat UW-Stout 17-10
6. Redlands SCIAC 6-1 6-1  7-1 Beat Chapman 21-7
7. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1  Open date  Pool B
8. St. John’s MIAC 6-2 6-2  7-2 7-2  Beat Augsburg 28-21  Plays Carleton for MIAC championship next week
9. Gustavus Adolphus MIAC6-2 6-2 Lost St Olaf's 27-20 2OT
10. Linfield NWC 4-2 5-2 4-2 5-3 Lost to Western Oregon 17-9

Wartburg 8-2 8-2 clinched the Iowa IAC today


Clinched in bold

Corrections are appreciated.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 08, 2008, 09:44:48 pm
Wooster beat Oberlin 27-7, score is now posted
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 09, 2008, 11:41:46 pm
All races in one place:

D3 Races (http://www.wjpa.com/allinone08.pdf)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 10, 2008, 10:53:43 am
Somewhere along the way, I got  the notion that for playoff bids the NCAA does not consider NAIA games in a DIII team's record.

If that is correct, LaGrange is 8-0 in the pool B running.

Please correct me if I am wrong.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 10, 2008, 11:01:01 am
Forgotten Man,

Your premise is correct.

I will go back through sometime this week and list ONLY D-3 records, and, if possible In-Region records.

I thought the document was more helpful to be up now with total overall records, even though those overalls include NAIA/D-II/D-IA/D-III provisionals etc.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on November 10, 2008, 11:53:17 am
Somewhere along the way, I got  the notion that for playoff bids the NCAA does not consider NAIA games in a DIII team's record.

If that is correct, LaGrange is 8-0 in the pool B running.

Please correct me if I am wrong.
Forgotten Man,
Actually since B'ham-Southern is second year provisional, they don't count yet so LaGrange's in region record is currently 7-0.
Looking forward to a slobber-knocker Saturday. See ya there.

go Hawks!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 10, 2008, 01:37:20 pm
You are quite right Hawks88. 7-0 is correct. Nice to have so many folks to keep me straight and on my toes!

Maybe the 8-0 is wishful thinking on my part.  ;)

"Slobber-knocker"--that's a new term for me, but I can imagine it will be such!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 10, 2008, 03:08:17 pm
Here is what I understand prior to the regional rankings coming out.

Case and Wesley are in barring a major upset.  Husson is out due to lack of quality opponents and lack of in-region games.

According to opponents winning percentage, Huntingdon is 164th, Northwestern 177th and Lagrange 208th.  These will all go up after Saturday's games (perhaps moreso for huntingdon and lagrange as they play each other).

Northwestern will most likely be ranked higher in the regional rankings than either Huntingdon or Lagrange, if huntingdon and lagrange are ranked at all. 

If Northwestern wins, I see them clearly ahead of Lagrange, but maybe not Huntingdon. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 10, 2008, 05:19:43 pm
Here is what I understand prior to the regional rankings coming out.

Case and Wesley are in barring a major upset.  Husson is out due to lack of quality opponents and lack of in-region games.

According to opponents winning percentage, Huntingdon is 164th, Northwestern 177th and Lagrange 208th.  These will all go up after Saturday's games (perhaps moreso for huntingdon and lagrange as they play each other).

Northwestern will most likely be ranked higher in the regional rankings than either Huntingdon or Lagrange, if huntingdon and lagrange are ranked at all. 

If Northwestern wins, I see them clearly ahead of Lagrange, but maybe not Huntingdon. 


I wish I knew a quick method for calculating strength of schedule (SOS) stats so I could grind out the actual numbers, but here is my take.

As far as the SOS for Pool B is concerned, the only difference between HC (8-1) and LC (7-0) is this past week's game HC vs. H-SC. Once LC and HC play,  that will raise both of their SOS considerably. It might even go higher than NW (8-1) who plays St. Thomas (6-3).

Even now, the OOWP favors HC and LC over NW.

208 LaGrange  7-0  1.000  0.405  0.486 
177 Northwestern (Minn.)  8-1  0.889  0.451  0.450 
164 Huntingdon  7-1  0.875  0.462  0.502 

and just for perspective
39 St. Thomas  6-3  0.667  0.571  0.557  -- NW may have a pretty tough game.

So, if NW wins and

So, I don't see NW going in ahead of the HC/LC winner.

Just my thoughts as a guy who's pretty new to this--since LC was 0-10 the past two years I really didn't pay any attention to it.

Any other thoughts on this analysis are welcomed.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 10, 2008, 05:25:11 pm
I would think huntingdon might drop out of the regional rankings after their latest loss, making a victory for Lagrange this weekend look less impressive to the committee.  I obviously didn't crunch the numbers either, but I don't think Lagrange can close the gap in OWP.  So you've got a regionally ranked 9-1 Northwestern and an unranked 8-0 LaGrange with a worse OWP. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 10, 2008, 05:44:43 pm
I am told that LC was at # 11 in the regional rankings last week. If HC drops, LC may move in. I guess we'll see what happens.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 10, 2008, 05:52:45 pm
I am told that LC was at # 11 in the regional rankings last week. If HC drops, LC may move in. I guess we'll see what happens.

That was Ralph's best guess, not an official ranking.   Other schools (like Trinity TX) are going to drop out so there are multiple chances for LC to move into the rankings.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 10, 2008, 07:55:12 pm
Thanks for the clarification Ron.

Of course the ranking that really matters is who wins that game on Saturday!  ;D or  :'(
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 10, 2008, 09:13:50 pm
okay, i'm a numbers guy so I finally decided to crunch the numbers.  For whatever reason I wasn't quite able to match the numbers given by D3football.com for either Northwestern or LaGrange.  Perhaps they were calculated before all of last weekend's results were in.  Here's my work:

Northwestern

Wisc Luth3-4
Simpson4-3
UW-Riv. Falls2-5
Crown4-2
Macalester4-5
Martin Luther6-2
St. Scho.0-6
Minn. Morris1-3
Crown4-2
St. Thomas6-3

LaGrange
Maryville5-3
Blackburn2-7
MacMurray3-5
Greenville6-3
Westminster4-3
Principia0-9
Eureka3-5
Huntingdon7-1
I calculate it as .467 for Northwestern and .397 for Lagrange at the end of last week.  Assuming Maryville beats Averett, which they will, and of course the game with Huntingdon, that bumps up LaGrange's final OWP to .4626

Northwestern has 4 opponents playing games on Saturday.  2 of those teams play against winless teams and River Falls plays last place Oshkosh at home.  These obviously won't help OOWP, but I don't feel like calculating that one right now.  If all 4 happen to lose, Northwestern's OWP would be .4657.  Or if all 4 win, OWP could shoot up to .521
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2008, 10:07:29 pm
 :)


Appendix J (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2008/3_football_handbook.pdf) in the Handbook has the method to calculate OWP/OOWP.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 10, 2008, 10:08:55 pm
that's what I was attempting to use
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 11, 2008, 10:06:23 am
AO. I admire your taking the time to work with the numbers. I sat down to do it last night and then decided I didn't have the patience.

You and I are both depending on a lot of "ifs"--but that's why the play the game right? ;)

If we go with your assumptions and mine that LC wins (and I know that is the big IF) then let's take a look at the primary criteria

The primary criteria from the NCAA handbook are:

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents. [this would go to LC]

• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
   - Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OWP). [goes to NW]
   - Opponents’ Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OOWP). [I think this goes to LC]

• In-region head-to-head competition. [I take this to mean LC vs NW -- correct me if I'm wrong]
• In-region results versus common regional opponents. [no common opponents]
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams. [Has NW played any teams that are likely to be regionally ranked at the time of the selection process?]

IF LC beats Huntingdon, I still think LC has a slight edge unless NW has beaten a regionally ranked opponent.

Let's also look at it logically. I think we both agree that if HC wins, they go ahead of NW. So if LC beats HC they should go ahead of NW also. 
        HC(wins) > NW is the premise. If you accept the premise, we have  IF LC(win) > HC, THEN LC (win) > NW.

But then again, the NCAA Handbook doesn't mention logic as a criterion. :o

Cheers!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 11, 2008, 11:46:19 am
Now, you've got me curious, and now that I understand it, the calculation shouldn't take too long this time.

Huntingdon

Maryville5-3
MacMurray3-5
Greenville6-3
Eureka3-5
Blackburn2-7
Westminster4-3
Principia0-9
Hampen-Sydney6-1
Lagrange7-0
I calculate Huntingdon's current OWP as .446 and final OWP as .506.  Considering the most likely result of Northwestern's opponents winning all or 3/4 of the games this weekend this puts Huntingdon tied in the result of 3 wins and below Northwestern in OWP if all 4 win. 

The bottom line is that Northwestern's schedule is more difficult than Huntingdon's or LaGrange's.  Northwestern knows better than most the sorts of teams that play in the SLIAC this year as they played in the UMAC in past years.  Every team that Northwestern used to beat on in the past is now in the SLIAC and the more challenging teams remain in the UMAC.

I also would think that a 9-1 record is actually better than 8-0 as the committee wouldn't want to reward teams for playing fewer region games.  There's a reason LaGrange hasn't been ranked yet, despite having an undefeated record.

At this point before the new regional rankings are posted, I'd give the edge to Northwestern over Huntingdon and LaGrange.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 11, 2008, 12:30:22 pm
AO: You make an interesting point about the strength of schedule, though I wouldn't be so quick to discount the win-loss record.

For what it's worth, the AFCA sees it this way:

 
Courtesy: AFCA
http://www.afca.com/
American Football Coaches Association Division III Coaches’ Poll
November 11, 2008
...

Others Receiving Votes: Trinity (Conn.), 42; Christopher Newport (Va.), 40; Catholic (D.C.), 29/ Wheaton (Ill.), 29; Curry (Mass.), 25; Wartburg (Iowa), 23; Huntingdon (Ala.), 20; LaGrange (Ga.), 18; St. John’s (Minn.), 14; Trinity (Texas), 14; Northwestern (Minn.), 13; Thomas More (Ky.), 11; Ripon (Wis.), 9; Plymouth St. (N.H.), 9; Elmhurst (Ill.), 8; Rowan (N.J.), 7; Wooster (Ohio), 7; Hobart (N.Y.), 6; Maine Maritime, 7; Adrian (Mich.), 2; Carleton (Minn.), 2.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 11, 2008, 12:55:11 pm
if the afca or d3football polls mattered, salisbury would get a bid.  we'll just have to wait and see what the regional rankings say i guess.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SUMMIT? on November 11, 2008, 05:02:01 pm
AO--- dont waste bandwidth on your Eagles hopes-- they have to win Sat to have a prayer of a chance, and they wont win.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 12, 2008, 01:19:33 pm
Regional rankings:

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2008/11/12/regional-rankings-final-release/
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 12, 2008, 02:05:09 pm
I believe this means that when the final unreleased rankings come out (which are the ones the NCAA uses to make selections), Huntingdon would not be in the rankings if LaGrange wins.  Therefore LaGrange would not be perceived as having beat a regionally ranked team, thereby giving no advantage to either LaGrange or Huntingdon over Northwestern.  It's a good sign for Huntingdon that they are still ranked after losing, though.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: johnnie_esq on November 12, 2008, 02:24:28 pm
I believe this means that when the final unreleased rankings come out (which are the ones the NCAA uses to make selections), Huntingdon would not be in the rankings if LaGrange wins.  Therefore LaGrange would not be perceived as having beat a regionally ranked team, thereby giving no advantage to either LaGrange or Huntingdon over Northwestern.  It's a good sign for Huntingdon that they are still ranked after losing, though.

AO, this post (http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4728.msg976152#msg976152) from the LL and reposted in the Pool C bid is particularly instructive regarding playoff selections in that it is not entirely based upon math-- which more than a few people have pointed out to you.  Therefore, looking at other criteria-- while not "official"-- may be more influential than you would likely hope. 

Again, the Eagles' quality win would be against 6-4 St. Thomas-- while their loss to IIAC's Simpson is not at all helpful.  And as I mentioned, playing a team twice in a year seems to be frowned upon-- to the point that it could knock you out if on the bubble. 

Believe me, UWW is concerned about it too-- but their past history should give them a leg up in the Pool C rankings.  NCCAA titles don't count in "past history".
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 12, 2008, 02:30:36 pm
I'd say playing against 9 unique regional teams is looked upon as better than playing 8 regional teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 12, 2008, 03:01:51 pm
History doesn't show that to be true.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 12, 2008, 03:22:12 pm
Then barely beating Birmingham-Southern and losing to Shorter will hurt LaGrange.  If Huntingdon wins, their only significant non-conference win is Maryville, whereas Northwestern would have River Falls and St. Thomas in the final week to show.  Since, Huntingdon lost in the next to last week you'd have to say Northwestern is playing better than ever and would be more competitive in the playoffs whereas Huntingdon has proved that they can't beat a playoff caliber team at home when they needed to.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: The Forgotten Man on November 12, 2008, 04:24:51 pm
Not that the Massey Ratings are used by the NCAA for DIII, but these statistics may prove interesting to some and irritating ;) to others. I guess we'll all just have to see what happens on Saturday. May the best teams win--and be selected.  8)

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf

School           W  L Rating                SchP                SchF           MOV
LaGrange        8   1   -0.373   (70)   -1.99   (201)   -1.86   (190)   70   SLIAC
Huntingdon     8   1   -0.430   (82)   -2.08   (203)   -1.93   (196)   73   SLIAC
Northwestern  8   1   -0.597   (106)   -2.28   (208)   -2.03   (202)   76   UMAC


Rank   Conf                 W   L Rating    Parity
32   St Louis IAC         8   14   -1.214   0.4056
33   Upper Midwest      8   10   -1.505   0.4107
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: johnnie_esq on November 12, 2008, 04:29:49 pm
Then barely beating Birmingham-Southern and losing to Shorter will hurt LaGrange.  If Huntingdon wins, their only significant non-conference win is Maryville, whereas Northwestern would have River Falls and St. Thomas in the final week to show.  Since, Huntingdon lost in the next to last week you'd have to say Northwestern is playing better than ever and would be more competitive in the playoffs whereas Huntingdon has proved that they can't beat a playoff caliber team at home when they needed to.

Northwestern's next to last game was against a team they played earlier in the year, and their last one (assuming an Eagle win) was against a team that wasn't even in playoff contention.

In contrast, Huntingdon's next to last game (the loss) was against a playoff contender and their last game (assuming a Huntingdon win) was against a fellow playoff contender.

LaGrange, also playing a playoff contender in their last week, has their only loss to a non-D3 team.  

For every argument you make about Northwestern's chances, there is an appropriate counter-argument that is at least as strong.  Truth be told, Northwestern is hurt by playing Crown twice and by being new to the D3 scene.  One of these things is avoidable-- that on the schedule front-- while the other is not.  

I am under no delusions about the strength of the SLIAC-- I mean, in no way that Principia can reasonably be considered competitive with Mount Union-- but it's not as though first-year program St. Scholastica can be considered a step up from Principia.   And again, Northwestern didn't round out their schedule with traditional powers like Whitewater, Linfield or Central-- they took out Macalester, Wisconsin Lutheran and River Falls-- the last of which hasn't won a conference title in 10 years in the great-parity WIAC and was picked to finish 6th in the conference this year-- and for this conversation to even exist on Sunday, will have beaten St. Thomas, whose last MIAC title came when at least a few players on the NWC roster weren't yet even born.   I'm not claiming Birmingham Southern should be compared to Wartburg--but you can't say, with a straight face, that they are much different than taking on Macalester.  And LaGrange played them on the road in the first week of the season-- whereas Northwestern got Mac at home in the middle of the season.  

I identified that Northwestern has a shot at the playoffs, but given where it sits in the West region, behind two potential Pool C teams-- one of whom is even on the bubble for Pool C-- should not be taken as a sign that the committee has much confidence in Northwestern.   Being realistic, you better hope that Wesley loses and Northwestern smokes UST for the Eagles to hit the playoffs.

Edit: Forgotten man, I brought those up to AO on the MIAC board yesterday, yet he continues!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 12, 2008, 07:01:08 pm
again, the massey ratings mean nothing.  Either the committee looks at their official criteria where Northwestern is ahead in most areas, or the subjective where I will prove to you that Northwestern's schedule is/was tougher. 

I'll be honest, if St. Thomas was eligible for a bid in Pool B, they would deserve the bid over Northwestern(if they win) or Huntingdon/LaGrange.  Although St. Thomas isn't a "playoff contender", they're still a tougher team than Huntingdon/LaGrange.   Since when is getting picked 6th in the WIAC a terrible thing?  They beat Stevens Point and Eau Claire.  a team like Maryville or LaGrange has nothing remotely close to the caliber of those wins.  You're right they do need to beat St. Thomas to make it to the playoffs, but if the pregame line set for pickem's at 6.5 is any indication, it's definitely possible to pull off this upset. 

St. Scholastica is 10 steps better than principia or Blackburn.  I've seen all these teams play, it's absolutely night and day between these teams.  It's not that Scholastica is even close to great, it's that some of those sliac teams are that bad.

Northwestern played Macalester on the road.  They didn't put Northwestern behind any two loss teams in the regional rankings.  If they did that, it would be a little better indication about what the committee thinks than their current ranking above any MIAC or IIAC teams.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: johnnie_esq on November 12, 2008, 09:21:46 pm
again, the massey ratings mean nothing.  Either the committee looks at their official criteria where Northwestern is ahead in most areas, or the subjective where I will prove to you that Northwestern's schedule is/was tougher. 

I'll be honest, if St. Thomas was eligible for a bid in Pool B, they would deserve the bid over Northwestern(if they win) or Huntingdon/LaGrange.  Although St. Thomas isn't a "playoff contender", they're still a tougher team than Huntingdon/LaGrange.   Since when is getting picked 6th in the WIAC a terrible thing?  They beat Stevens Point and Eau Claire.  a team like Maryville or LaGrange has nothing remotely close to the caliber of those wins.  You're right they do need to beat St. Thomas to make it to the playoffs, but if the pregame line set for pickem's at 6.5 is any indication, it's definitely possible to pull off this upset. 

St. Scholastica is 10 steps better than principia or Blackburn.  I've seen all these teams play, it's absolutely night and day between these teams.  It's not that Scholastica is even close to great, it's that some of those sliac teams are that bad.

Northwestern played Macalester on the road.  They didn't put Northwestern behind any two loss teams in the regional rankings.  If they did that, it would be a little better indication about what the committee thinks than their current ranking above any MIAC or IIAC teams.

Did you read the post I noted?  Things like the Massey ratings, though unofficial, appear to have some impact on things.

Your post (regarding UST being eligible for a Pool B bid) is the best argument AGAINST a third pool B selection I have seen this year.  When Northwestern is being considered for selection at the expense of Redlands who--while their only loss was to an undefeated team-- is grasping for air and a potential Pool C bid while a three loss team makes the playoffs in Pool B?  Sorry, that doesn't cut it.  Under that rationale, why don't we just eliminate the entire MWC, skip the MIAC selection this year and let the WIAC and NWC fight out who will represent the West?  We went away from that system to reward teams and encourage teams to play conference games.  Hey, if they took away the MIAC or IIAC bid this year, you wouldn't see me complaining-- two loss teams hitting the playoffs while one loss teams like Redlands stay home is a problem in my mind.

In regard the idea of quality wins, again-- it is unofficial, but it illustrates the degree of teams you play.  Either Huntingdon or LaGrange will have beaten a team with eight wins on the year.  Northwestern's notable wins would come against a team that has only six wins (St. Thomas) or a team with only four wins at max (UWRF).  That UWRF beat UWSP is worth less than you would think in relation to Northwestern's status-- after all, isn't record against common opponents one of the criteria?  And if so, shouldn't Northwestern be in front of UWSP?  But they aren't.  Why?  Because the committee ranks them according to both the objective and subjective criteria.

Finally, that Northwestern is higher than the two loss teams in the West says nothing about its relative strength to Huntingdon or LaGrange-- since they are not in the same region and there are no two-loss teams listed in the south region.  In my opinion, Huntingdon's four point loss to a 1-loss playoff contender seems a lot stronger than NWC's three point loss to a mediocre IIAC squad.  And if LaGrange beats Huntingdon, doesn't that say the same for LaGrange?

I am a huge fan of the West region, and I strongly believe that the West has great parity up and down in the region-- with the results over the past few years vindicating the situation.  But that doesn't necessarily translate to a team like Northwestern who has not built the reputation it needs by playing tough with the Johnnies, the Warhawks, the Dutch or the 'Cats.  Or even the second group like PLU, Concordia, Bethel or Wartburg.  Slaughtering UMAC opponents and middling MIAC/IIAC/WIAC teams are good for the long haul but don't put you into the playoff category by itself.  Give Huntingdon and LaGrange credit-- the former scheduled Hampden-Sydney-- a playoff participant, and the latter pulled in Bridgewater (VA) last year--and Shorter was a pretty decent team in NAIA last year as well. What does that tell me?  Northwestern is close, but needs to take it to the next level to get the respect it wants in the West region-- while the other two schools are scheduling near-playoff caliber teams when they can.



 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 12, 2008, 09:36:17 pm
I don't read the post the same way you do.  I see "scores and some subjective standards" mentioned as being considered but nothing like computer rankings (Massey).  Not sure we know what he meant by "subjective standards" but that's not how I would characterize the computer rankings.

If in fact, the North region committee is looking at scores, I fail to see how Trine gets ranked above CWRU.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: johnnie_esq on November 12, 2008, 09:44:02 pm
I don't read the post the same way you do.  I see "scores and some subjective standards" mentioned as being considered but nothing like computer rankings (Massey).  Not sure we know what he meant by "subjective standards" but that's not how I would characterize the computer rankings.

If in fact, the North region committee is looking at scores, I fail to see how Trine gets ranked above CWRU.

I read the post as noting the committee is not a matter of mere robots looking only at their own criteria.  Concepts such as Massey-- which appear to show results that contradict the NCAA's own criteria-- give credence to subjective interpretation.  I'm not advocating that the committee use Massey-- I am saying that the committee's subjective interpretation-- and how many here have suggested NWC as #4 in for the 3 Pool B bids-- is not unreasonable in that light-- and Massey backs that opinion up.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on November 12, 2008, 10:30:31 pm
I don't read the post the same way you do.  I see "scores and some subjective standards" mentioned as being considered but nothing like computer rankings (Massey).  Not sure we know what he meant by "subjective standards" but that's not how I would characterize the computer rankings.

If in fact, the North region committee is looking at scores, I fail to see how Trine gets ranked above CWRU.

I have been wondering what "subjective standards" are, ever since I saw the original post on the LL board.

How would any committee know when it has exceeded its "subjective standards?"

Ultimately, I'm not comforted by the fact that the Selection Committee chairman, when asked about a team with a 7-0 in-Region record (Primary Selection Criterion), a 7-0 in-Division record (Secondary Selection Criterion) and a 7-2 overall record (Secondary Criterion) says nothing more than "they're a two-loss team."   Actually, Mr. Chairman, they're an undefeated team by one primary measure, an undefeated team by a secondary measure, and they're only a two-loss team by a second secondary measure.

The Selection Committee has leeway to make subjective judgments, thanks to the parenthetical "not in priority order."  If the Selection Committee chairman is claiming that the secondary criterion of overall record is a higher priority criterion than the other criteria--including the primary criterion of in-Region winning percentage--then he might be acting within his charter.  (There might still be a dispute over whether primary criteria are necessarily higher priority than secondary criteria.)  But that's not what he said, according to Frank's report.

It's my impression that Massey is a computer ranking system.  As such, Massey rankings are not subjective per se, in fact they are purely objective.  However, computer ranking systems are based on programs where programmers make subjective judgments regarding the importance of specific pieces of objective data.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 12, 2008, 10:43:58 pm
I wonder what the committee chair is going to say.

We have had several seasons where we have had chairs talk to D3sports.com reporters about the selections (in other sports included).

Quote
Secondary Criteria. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).

I think that this is the key to the "subjective standards".
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on November 12, 2008, 10:49:07 pm
I wonder what the committee chair is going to say.

We have had several seasons where we have had chairs talk to D3sports.com reporters about the selections (in other sports included).

Quote
Secondary Criteria. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).

I think that this is the key to the "subjective standards".

Yep, I've said it before--the most powerful words in the Selection Criteria:

(not listed in priority order)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AO on November 12, 2008, 10:57:11 pm
I wasn't trying to make an indictment of the entire playoff system by saying St. Thomas would deserve to get in if their were a pool B.  I was merely indicating that I consider them to be better than Huntingdon or LaGrange, thereby making Northwestern's last game, a tougher one than the other contenders.  It is truly one of the great tournaments in the world giving every team a shot at making the final 32.  There is no doubt that it is more difficult for teams in more difficult conferences to make the playoffs, but it would water down the regular season a bit too much if the big conference teams could get away with a couple losses every year and turn it on for the playoffs.

I will believe that Massey ratings affect the committee when I hear them say they did.  I didn't get that from the post from LL board.  I was trying to argue that under a more pure subjective approach that Northwestern looks better than Huntingdon or LaGrange.  I think it's pretty easy to figure out why Northwestern is the last ranked of the 1-loss teams in the west, and it's got nothing to do with the Massey ratings.  Stevens point beat Whitewater for crying out loud.  

I haven't seen many people thinking a clear #4 for Northwestern in the pool b race.  I agree with a tie for 3rd and a very difficult decision for the committee.  Obviously I'm biased so it makes it a lot easier for me to look at the schedules and declare Northwestern to get the bid, but it's a bit more difficult on the other side when you're trying to gauge the strength of 100 teams as well as seed and place them.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2008, 11:06:08 pm
I wonder what the committee chair is going to say.

We have had several seasons where we have had chairs talk to D3sports.com reporters about the selections (in other sports included).

Quote
Secondary Criteria. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).

I think that this is the key to the "subjective standards".

Yep, I've said it before--the most powerful words in the Selection Criteria:

(not listed in priority order)


What about the words evaluated and reviewed?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on November 12, 2008, 11:20:50 pm
I wonder what the committee chair is going to say.

We have had several seasons where we have had chairs talk to D3sports.com reporters about the selections (in other sports included).

Quote
Secondary Criteria. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).

I think that this is the key to the "subjective standards".

Yep, I've said it before--the most powerful words in the Selection Criteria:

(not listed in priority order)


What about the words evaluated and reviewed?

Oh pshaw--those words don't even have parenthesis!   :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on November 12, 2008, 11:39:44 pm
East Regional Rankings, Nov. 5:

1. Cortland St    8-0 8-0
2. RPI               7-0 7-0
3. Ithaca          6-1 7-1
4. Montclair St   7-1 7-1
5. Rowan          7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick       6-1 6-1
7. Hobart          6-1 6-1
8. Plymouth St   7-1 8-1
9. Husson         6-0 6-2
10. Curry          7-1 8-1

East Regional Rankings, Nov. 12:

1. Cortland St    9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca          7-1 8-1
3. Montclair St   8-1 8-1
4. Hobart          7-1 7-1
5. RPI               7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick        6-2 6-2
7. Plymouth St    8-1 9-1
8. Rowan           7-2 7-2
9. Curry             8-1 9-1
10. Albright        6-2 7-2
11. Husson        7-0 7-2

I don't understand how Husson won, and yet was passed by Curry and two-loss Albright.  My inner cynic figures that the NCAA committee was using the incorrect 6-1 in-Region record for Albright.

(I also don't understand how Hartwick stays put at no. 6, despite a loss to 3-6 Springfield, but 'Wick's not a Pool B candidate)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 15, 2008, 05:03:54 pm
St Thomas 41, Northwestern MN 0

I think that CWRU, Wesley and LaGrange are in.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on November 15, 2008, 05:14:58 pm
East Regional Rankings, Nov. 12:

1. Cortland St    9-0 9-0  9-1  9-1  Pool A  NJAC
2. Ithaca          7-1 8-1  8-1  9-1  Pool A  E8
3. Montclair St   8-1 8-1  8-2  8-2  Pool C  NJAC
4. Hobart          7-1 7-1  8-1  8-1  Pool A  LL
5. RPI               7-1 7-1  7-2  7-2  Pool C LL
6. Hartwick        6-2 6-2  7-2  7-2  Pool C  E8
7. Plymouth St    8-1 9-1  8-1 10-1 Pool A  NEFC
8. Rowan           7-2 7-2  8-2  8-2  Pool C  NJAC
9. Curry             8-1 9-1  8-1  9-1  Pool C  NEFC
10. Albright        6-2 7-2  6-3  6-3  Pool A MAC
11. Husson        7-0  7-2  7-0   7-2  Pool B/C  IND

Hartwick, the new king of East Region Pool C candidates?

At 7-0 in-Division, can Husson be overlooked?  The only other Pool C candidates in the East are 2-loss teams
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 15, 2008, 05:32:43 pm
East Regional Rankings, Nov. 12:

1. Cortland St    9-0 9-0  9-1  9-1  Pool A  NJAC
2. Ithaca          7-1 8-1  8-1  9-1  Pool A  E8
3. Montclair St   8-1 8-1  8-2  8-2  Pool C  NJAC
4. Hobart          7-1 7-1  8-1  8-1  Pool A  LL
5. RPI               7-1 7-1  7-2  7-2  Pool C LL
6. Hartwick        6-2 6-2  7-2  7-2  Pool C  E8
7. Plymouth St    8-1 9-1  8-1 10-1 Pool A  NEFC
8. Rowan           7-2 7-2  8-2  8-2  Pool C  NJAC
9. Curry             8-1 9-1  8-1  9-1  Pool C  NEFC
10. Albright        6-2 7-2  6-3  6-3  Pool A MAC
11. Husson        7-0  7-2  7-0   7-2  Pool B/C  IND

Hartwick, the new king of East Region Pool C candidates?

At 7-0 in-Division, can Husson be overlooked?  The only other Pool C candidates in the East are 2-loss teams
Pool A bids are in bold.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 15, 2008, 07:42:13 pm
All races in one place:

D3 Races (http://www.wjpa.com/allinone08.pdf)

Includes Pool B teams in the hunt.
Includes Pool C 1-loss & 2-loss teams in the hunt.
Includes all 23 AQ races.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on November 24, 2008, 07:36:24 pm
By the way, if "B"s didn't get a "C" this year, "B"s will never get a "C".

(Meant to post that like two weeks ago....)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 24, 2008, 07:53:09 pm
By the way, if "B"s didn't get a "C" this year, "B"s will never get a "C".

(Meant to post that like two weeks ago....)

 Bob

I think that maybe Salisbury would have gotten a C if they would have had more in region games. I also think that is why Wesley got a no. 7 seed.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 24, 2008, 08:33:11 pm
Pool B for 2008

South Region:

#7 Wesley won at #4 Muhlenberg (Pool A) 20-0
#7 Wesley plays #2 UMHB in the second round.
#8 LaGrange lost at #1 Millsaps 26-51.

North Region

#3 Case Western Reserve lost to #6 Wabash 17-20
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on January 07, 2009, 12:38:17 am
Pool B for 2008

South Region:

#7 Wesley won at #4 Muhlenberg (Pool A) 20-0
#7 Wesley lost at #2 UMHB 14-46.
#8 LaGrange lost at #1 Millsaps 26-51.

North Region

#3 Case Western Reserve lost to #6 Wabash 17-20

Final Record for Pool B was 1-3.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on January 28, 2009, 10:48:37 am
With Blackburn announcing last week that they are dropping football and now it looks like Principia is doing the same at least for this year(http://www.thetelegraph.com/sports/football_22848___article.html/program_prin.html), what will that do to Pool B? Seems like it was borderline this past year. Does it look like we might drop to two bids for '09?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on January 28, 2009, 11:05:37 am
New Pool B teams in 2009 include Castleton State and Anna Marie College.  That may be a wash for those teams in Pool B.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on January 28, 2009, 11:39:00 am
I count 29 Pool B teams in 2009.  I think that the Access Ratio is about 8.61 (198 Pool A teams in 23 Pool A conferences in 2008).  That gives us three (3) bids.


ACFC -- a non-Pool A conference (3 teams)
Frostburg
Salisbury
Wesley

South Region Independents (2 teams)
Huntingdon  (Previously an affiliate member of the SLIAC)
LaGrange   (Previously an affiliate member of the SLIAC)   

UAA (4 teams)
Carnegie Mellon
Washington
Chicago
Case Western   

North Atlantic Conference -- a non-Pool A conference (8 teams)
Gallaudet                                    (football affiliate from the Capital AC)
Becker                                        (football affiliate from the NECC)
Husson
Mount Ida                                   (football affiliate from the GNAC)
SUNY-Maritime                             (football affiliate from the SKY)
Anna Marie (new for 2009; football affiliate from the CCC)
Castleton State (new for 2009)
Norwich (coming from the Empire 8 in 2009;  football affiliate from the GNAC)

West Region Independents (2 teams)
Chapman
Macalester 

UMAC (10 teams)
Crown
Martin Luther
Minnesota-Morris
Northwestern (Minn)
St Scholastica 
plus former St Louis IAC affiliates (5 teams)
Eureka
Greenville
MacMurray
Westminster
Principia (out of the SLIAC for 2009, but apparently back in for UMAC in 2009)  

Corrections are appreciated!  (Updated April 16th, 2009).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on January 28, 2009, 12:06:20 pm
With Blackburn announcing last week that they are dropping football and now it looks like Principia is doing the same at least for this year (http://www.thetelegraph.com/sports/football_22848___article.html/program_prin.html), what will that do to Pool B? Seems like it was borderline this past year. Does it look like we might drop to two bids for '09?
Wow!  Do we call this the "Blackburn Domino"?

-Blackburn drops football.
-Principia reconsiders the success of its football program when one of the less-successful programs in its conference drops the sport, and decides to  suspend the sport.
-The remaining 4 SLIAC schools see how tenuous their position is.
-Pool A status for the SLIAC was projected for fall 2010.  The proverbial goal post just got moved into the future.

I recommend that the SLIAC and the UMAC go back to the table.

The 5-team UMAC and the 4-team SLIAC (plus 2 affilitates) can align along one conference's core.  Declare a divisional champion in single round-robin play.  Play the Dome Day games to declare the conference champion which can be the "Pool A Bid" team after two seasons of this format.  The NEFC has used this for its Pool A bid.  This format preserves the Pool A bid for these schools.  Principia would have a viable conference in which to resume its program.

(In the pipeline for provisional status are these football playing schools: William Jewell MO, Hastings NE, Doane NE and Concordia NE.  Each of these schools is going thru the observational year in 2008-09.  They could be full members in 2013-14.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on January 31, 2009, 04:36:04 pm
 I understand that Wesley will be traveling to Pacific Lutheran this fall. Not that it will help with in region  ratings. But I think it says a lot about how far Coach Drass will travel to get games and you can't get much farther away from Delaware than Washington.
Title: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on April 16, 2009, 06:00:09 pm
Whither Pool B--2011   (Updated 16 April 2009  5 May 2009)

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 10 years.  At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Remain in Pool B. 

UAA -- U Chicago and CWRU

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses. CCIW (8 ). HCAC (8 ), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7) and the NATHC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region.  53 Total schools in the North Region



East Region:  6 teams Remain in Pool B.

The Pool A conferences include the MAC (8 ), NEFC (16 teams in 2 divisions), NJAC (10), Liberty League (7) and the ECFC (8 ).

The Empire 8 is down to 6 members now, with the departure of affiliate Norwich to the NAC in 2009.  While this bodes well for getting a Pool B bids, they may have trouble getting games in October.

When the North Atlantic Conference decided to sponsor football, it attracted affiliate programs from the District of Columbia to Vermont.  Joining NAC members Castleton St VT and Husson were affiliates Anna Marie College from the Commonwealth Coast Conference (CCC), Becker from the New England Collegiate Conference (NECC), Gallaudet from the Capital AC (CAC and the South Region), and Mount Ida and Norwich from the Great Northeast AC (GNAC).  Because the NAC does did not have four core members playing football, the conference is was ineligible to move to Pool A status.  So, the college presidents have formed the Eastern Collegiate Football Conference  (ECFC) (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html).  Those 8 Pool B's should be a Pool A conference in 2011.  Maybe they will entice other schools to add football.  (Edit:  5 May 2009).

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in Parentheses.  ECFC (8 ), Liberty League (7), MAC (8 ), NJAC (10 ) and NEFC (16).


By 2011, I anticipate 5 Pool A conferences with 49 members in the East Region. 55 teams total in the East Region.




West Region: 3 Remain.

The Upper Midwest AC moves to Pool A with 5 members and 5 affiliates from the Saint Louis IAC.

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference (7), SCIAC (7), Upper Midwest AC (10), WIAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 60 members in the West Region and 63 teams total.

The remaining three West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester and Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years.


South Region:  7 Remain.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9), Centennial (8 ), ODAC (7), President AC (9), SCAC (9), USAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 50 members in the South Region.  57 Teams total.

The seven remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Huntingdon, LaGrange, Wesley, Frostburg St and Salisbury.

Eighteen (18) projected teams in Pool B in 2011.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on April 16, 2009, 09:49:04 pm
Going off of Ralph's numbers here is how the bids will be given out.

Pool A - 23
Pool B - 2  (I came up with 2.96)
Pool C - 7
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on April 17, 2009, 05:31:18 pm
By 2011, with Hendrix playing football and potentially Pacific and Villa Julie as well, the margin probably won't be as close to three Pool B bids.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on April 17, 2009, 05:56:32 pm
By 2011, with Hendrix playing football and potentially Pacific and Villa Julie as well, the margin probably won't be as close to three Pool B bids.

 Pat

 I know that a few schools in the ACFC are looking forward  to the decision by Steveson's  ;)  in May .  Things colfd shape up for a decent sized football affiliation with Huntington and LaGrange and the Capital schools
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on April 17, 2009, 08:17:51 pm
I understand that the Capital AC requires its members to participate "in conference" for sponsored sports.

If that is correct, then CAC members Gallaudet, Salisbury, Stevenson and Wesley make the four core members.  Frostburg, Huntingdon and LaGrange could be the affiliates.

That would make a Pool A conference.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on April 17, 2009, 08:34:21 pm
  The only draw back would be the travel for Huntingdon and LaGrange..  But they were already in that cituation before.
  And you add NNA to the mix and you have at least 7 games taken care of each year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on May 05, 2009, 06:38:50 pm
Whither Pool B (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html)!  The ECFC?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on May 05, 2009, 07:52:29 pm
Whither Pool B (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html)!  The ECFC?

Alas, when I went to 'kickoff', it would no longer post the 1-239 rankings.  (I realize there has been a whole season since then, so things might have changed.)  My guess is that (barring someone seriously upgrading) the ECFC AQ will be someone's first round 'speed bump' - weren't all 8 of these teams among the bottom 39 of the 239? :o
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on May 05, 2009, 08:17:10 pm
Whither Pool B (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html)!  The ECFC?

Alas, when I went to 'kickoff', it would no longer post the 1-239 rankings.  (I realize there has been a whole season since then, so things might have changed.)  My guess is that (barring someone seriously upgrading) the ECFC AQ will be someone's first round 'speed bump' - weren't all 8 of these teams among the bottom 39 of the 239? :o
I know what you mean.

I paid good money for that password!  Those archives are valuable to D3 historians!  What good is a subscription is you cannot use it 24/7/365!

(Slaps knee!  Falls off the chair!  ROTFLMAO!)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on May 05, 2009, 10:03:30 pm
Whither Pool B (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html)!  The ECFC?

Alas, when I went to 'kickoff', it would no longer post the 1-239 rankings.  (I realize there has been a whole season since then, so things might have changed.)  My guess is that (barring someone seriously upgrading) the ECFC AQ will be someone's first round 'speed bump' - weren't all 8 of these teams among the bottom 39 of the 239? :o
I know what you mean.

I paid good money for that password!  Those archives are valuable to D3 historians!  What good is a subscription is you cannot use it 24/7/365!

(Slaps knee!  Falls off the chair!  ROTFLMAO!)

I agree.  At those exorbitant prices ;), we should have eternal access.

Pat, you got some 'splainin' to do. :o  (Didn't call you 'Lucy', but you catch the drift.)

The historians of d3 want these things to last forever. >:(
Title: Re: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on May 28, 2009, 10:49:59 pm
Whither Pool B--Fall 2011   (Updated 16 April 2009  27 May 2009  29 June 2009)

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 10 years.  At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Remain in Pool B.  

UAA -- U Chicago and CWRU

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses. CCIW (8 ). HCAC (8 ), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7) and the NATHC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region.  53 Total schools in the North Region



East Region:  6 teams Remain in Pool B, all from the Empire 8.

The Pool A conferences include the MAC (8 ), NEFC (16 teams in 2 divisions), NJAC (10), Liberty League (7) and the ECFC (8 ).

The Empire 8 is down to 6 members now, with the departure of affiliate Norwich to the NAC in 2009.  While this bodes well for getting a Pool B bids, they may have trouble getting games in October.  There is also discussion/rumor that E8 member Ithaca has been invited to the Liberty League.

When the North Atlantic Conference decided to sponsor football, it attracted affiliate programs from the District of Columbia to Vermont.  Joining NAC members Castleton St VT and Husson were affiliates Anna Marie College from the Commonwealth Coast Conference (CCC), Becker from the New England Collegiate Conference (NECC), Gallaudet from the Capital AC (CAC and the South Region), and Mount Ida and Norwich from the Great Northeast AC (GNAC).  Because the NAC does did not have four core members playing football, the conference is was ineligible to move to Pool A status.  So, the college presidents have formed the Eastern Collegiate Football Conference  (ECFC) (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html).  Those 8 Pool B's should be a Pool A conference in 2011.  Maybe they will entice other schools to add football.  (Edit:  5 May 2009).

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in Parentheses.  ECFC (8 ), Liberty League (7), MAC (8 ), NJAC (10 ) and NEFC (16).


By 2011, I anticipate 5 Pool A conferences with 49 members in the East Region. 55 teams total in the East Region.




West Region: 3 Remain.

The Upper Midwest AC moves to Pool A with 5 members and 5 affiliates from the Saint Louis IAC.

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference including Pacific (8 ), SCIAC (7), Upper Midwest AC (10), WIAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 61 members in the West Region and 64 teams total.

The remaining three West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester and Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years.


South Region:  5 6 Remain.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9), Centennial (8 ), ODAC (7), President AC (9), SCAC including Hendrix and new member BSC and minus Colorado College (9), USAC (8 + Huntingdon and LaGrange = 10 and ? minus Shenandoah?  to some other Pool A conference?  EDIT 27 May 09).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 52 members in the South Region.  57 58 Teams total.

The five six remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Wesley, Frostburg St, Salisbury,  EDIT 29 June 09 and Stevenson starting in 2010.

Sixteen (16) Seventeen (17) projected teams in Pool B in 2011.

That means one Pool B bid in 2011.
EDIT: Seventeen Pool B teams might mean two Pool B bids in 2011, depending on the access ratio.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on June 15, 2009, 01:31:26 pm
Ralph,

IF that happens (1 "B" in 2011), I GUARANTEE a "B" gets a "C" that year.....
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on June 15, 2009, 02:24:55 pm
I can C that.   ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: pumkinattack on June 15, 2009, 10:43:39 pm
I strongly believe there's going to be a lot of movement in the East conferences in the next few years.  There's no way the E8 remains for football as a pool B conference.  Too many of those schools care too much about football as a part of their athletic portfolio to let that happen (especially IC).

They either add a program, though most of the schools I hear thrown around aren't that likely (e.g. some of the MAC schools) or a few jump ship leaving the rest to fend for themselves.  I also could see the NEFC splitting into two at some point.   
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on July 08, 2009, 12:27:59 am
Whither Pool B (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html)!  The ECFC?

Alas, when I went to 'kickoff', it would no longer post the 1-239 rankings.  (I realize there has been a whole season since then, so things might have changed.)  My guess is that (barring someone seriously upgrading) the ECFC AQ will be someone's first round 'speed bump' - weren't all 8 of these teams among the bottom 39 of the 239? :o
I know what you mean.

I paid good money for that password!  Those archives are valuable to D3 historians!  What good is a subscription is you cannot use it 24/7/365!

(Slaps knee!  Falls off the chair!  ROTFLMAO!)

I agree.  At those exorbitant prices ;), we should have eternal access.

Pat, you got some 'splainin' to do. :o  (Didn't call you 'Lucy', but you catch the drift.)

The historians of d3 want these things to last forever. >:(

I think something about it turns over at the change of the year (from 08 to 09) ... even I lose access to it, or have in the past anyway.

I gain it back sometime during the Kickoff construction process when I bug the right people that we'll need it ... and it will be in place by the time you buy Kickoff again this year :) ... access to the archives is definitely something that's included.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Teamski on July 09, 2009, 01:06:19 pm
Once again, a single loss by a Pool B team can definately spell a short season!  I really hope the CAC can find a couple additional members within the next couple years to get Pool A eligible.

-Ski
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on July 09, 2009, 02:25:45 pm
Once again, a single loss by a Pool B team can definately spell a short season!  I really hope the CAC can find a couple additional members within the next couple years to get Pool A eligible.

-Ski
Just like losing a conference game in any other regular conference...  ;)

Consider Pool B as one big conference.

Win 'em all and you are in.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B--2011
Post by: Ralph Turner on July 13, 2009, 05:41:28 pm
Whither Pool B--Fall 2011   (Updated 13 Jul 09)

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 10 years.  .

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  Today the Empire 8 announced the affiliation of Frostburg State and Salisbury (http://www.d3football.com/pressreleases.php?release=2824), which had played in Atlantic Collegiate Football Conference. From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Remain in Pool B.  

UAA -- U Chicago and CWRU

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses. CCIW (8 ). HCAC (8 ), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7) and the NATHC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region.  53 Total schools in the North Region



East Region:  No teams remain in Pool B.

The Pool A conferences include the MAC (8 ), NEFC (16 teams in 2 divisions), NJAC (10), Liberty League (7) the E8 (8 )and the ECFC (8 ).

The Empire 8 added Salisbury and Frostburg State today to begin play in 2011.  

When the North Atlantic Conference decided to sponsor football, it attracted affiliate programs from the District of Columbia to Vermont.  Joining NAC members Castleton St VT and Husson were affiliates Anna Marie College from the Commonwealth Coast Conference (CCC), Becker from the New England Collegiate Conference (NECC), Gallaudet from the North Eastern Athletic Conference (NEAC  and the South Region), SUNY Maritime from the Skyline Conference (SKY), and Mount Ida and Norwich from the Great Northeast AC (GNAC).  Because the NAC did not have four core members playing football, the conference was ineligible to move to Pool A status.  So, the college presidents have formed the Eastern Collegiate Football Conference  (ECFC) (http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/05/05/1658/nac-schools-reorganize-start-automatic-bid-waiting-period.html).  Those 8 Pool B's should be a Pool A conference in 2011.  Maybe they will entice other schools to add football.  

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in Parentheses.  Empire 8 (8 ),  ECFC (8 ), Liberty League (7), MAC (8 ), NJAC (10 ) and NEFC (16).


By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 57 members in the East Region Conferences.




West Region: 3 Remain.

The Upper Midwest AC moves to Pool A with 5 members plus Presentation and 5 affiliates from the Saint Louis IAC.

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference including Pacific (8 ), SCIAC (7), Upper Midwest AC plus Presentation (11), WIAC (8 ).  (When George Fox starts football is still not determined.  Presentation should start in 2011, too.)

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 61 members in the West Region and 64 teams total.

The remaining three West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester and Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years.


South Region:  4 Remain.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9), Centennial adding Susquehanna (10 ), ODAC plus Shenandoah (8 ), Presidents AC (9), SCAC including Hendrix and new member BSC and minus Colorado College (9), USAC, 8 + Huntingdon and LaGrange = 10 and minus Shenandoah (9)

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 54 members in the South Region.  58 Teams total.

The four remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Wesley and Stevenson starting in 2010.


Nine projected teams in Pool B in 2011.

That means zero to one Pool B bid in 2011 depending on the access ratio.


Corrections are appreciated.  This seems to be a moving target.

This alignment will give 25 Pool A bids, 1 Pool B bid and 6 Pool C bids.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on September 10, 2009, 09:00:25 pm
Is it too early to start projecting which B teams will make the dance?

I thought I'd ask....
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 10, 2009, 09:36:57 pm
Is it too early to start projecting which B teams will make the dance?

I thought I'd ask....
Maybe, but it is always fun to talk about Pool B.

Keith covers the move into conferences in the ATN, today.

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2009-09-09/Why+they%27re+still+coaching

I see the current Pool B as being comprised of these schools.

The UMAC-10  (Pool A in 2011)
The ECFC-8  (Pool A in 2011)
The UAA-4
The Independents (4) (Huntingdon, LaGrange, Chapman, and Macalester.)
The ACFC-"3"  (Frostburg St and Salisbury to the E8 in 2011.)

Twenty-nine teams.  I think that means that we have 3 Pool B bids.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: altor on September 10, 2009, 11:07:16 pm
I see the current Pool B as being comprised of these schools.

Ralph, have you seen the 2009 championship handbook, yet?  I'm guessing by the way you worded this sentence that you haven't either.  Either the NCAA hasn't released it yet or my Google-fu is extremely weak on this subject.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 10, 2009, 11:28:08 pm
I see the current Pool B as being comprised of these schools.
Ralph, have you seen the 2009 championship handbook, yet?  I'm guessing by the way you worded this sentence that you haven't either.  Either the NCAA hasn't released it yet or my Google-fu is extremely weak on this subject.

No, I haven't seen the Handbook.  

Those are my best guesses about Pool B.   :)

Thanks for the response.  When you see the first release of the Handbook, please post the link for all of us.  +1!  


I appreciate how Pat Coleman keeps these message boards and our discussions as an ongoing think tank and archive as to what is happening in D-III for our deliberations.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 15, 2009, 12:08:38 pm
Does the loss by Salisbury this past weekend really hurt the playoff chances?  Does it require them to run the table the rest of the season?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 15, 2009, 01:03:07 pm
Does the loss by Salisbury this past weekend really hurt the playoff chances?  Does it require them to run the table the rest of the season?
IMHO, I think that a second Salisbury loss puts them on the bubble.

A undefeated UMAC team or even a 1-loss UAA team could make a good case over a Salisbury team with 2 in-region losses.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ryan Tipps on September 15, 2009, 01:19:16 pm
Does the loss by Salisbury this past weekend really hurt the playoff chances?  Does it require them to run the table the rest of the season?

If Wesley and H-SC are regionally ranked, then a win against one or both of them will help Salisbury. But Salisbury has only five in-region games all year, so with a loss to another in-region team, well, counting them on the "bubble" may be generous.

It would help Salisbury if St. John Fisher were also ranked in its region, but it doesn't factor as strongly with the NCAA as Wesley's and Hampden-Sydney's potential rankings would.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 15, 2009, 01:31:07 pm
I would think that Salisbury, if they win on Saturday, would really hope that CNU runs the table because they would be highly ranked at 8-2 with the only losses to Wesley and Salisbury.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ryan Tipps on September 15, 2009, 01:42:14 pm
Yeah, that too. I overlooked CNU when typing up my post. The Captains making the regional rankings would help the Gulls.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on September 15, 2009, 05:04:30 pm
 If Salisbury beats CNU by a wide margin then what does that say for the for the USA conference if CNU runs the table easily? And CNU still has Wilkes before they start the conference schedule. Add to that the fact that not a word has been about Tunde's injury!!!They could make the playoffs and conceivably not be ranked in the south. I think there may be one or two teams in  the USA who may give CNU a run for the tiltle.

 Salisbury still has games @Wesley and @ H-SU along with Union and St John Fisher. I know those N.Y games aren't suppose to count but with only five in region games I would think they would have to run the south and win at least one of those games with  a two loss season to even have a chance at a spot in the payoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 17, 2009, 08:41:03 pm
I see the current Pool B as being comprised of these schools.
Ralph, have you seen the 2009 championship handbook, yet?  I'm guessing by the way you worded this sentence that you haven't either.  Either the NCAA hasn't released it yet or my Google-fu is extremely weak on this subject.

No, I haven't seen the Handbook.  

Those are my best guesses about Pool B.   :)

Thanks for the response.  When you see the first release of the Handbook, please post the link for all of us.  +1!  


I appreciate how Pat Coleman keeps these message boards and our discussions as an ongoing think tank and archive as to what is happening in D-III for our deliberations.



Usually comes out midway through the season, doesn't it? Late Sept. or early Oct.?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 17, 2009, 08:42:54 pm
If Salisbury beats CNU by a wide margin then what does that say for the for the USA conference if CNU runs the table easily?

That Salisbury is better than all the teams in the USA South. Which, based on past seasons, is not really a stretch.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 17, 2009, 08:51:37 pm
The other side of the arguement is what does it say if CNU beats Salisbury on Sat?  It would definitely show some improvement at the top of the conference if two USA South teams beat Salisbury in the same year. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 17, 2009, 11:00:11 pm
The other side of the arguement is what does it say if CNU beats Salisbury on Sat?  It would definitely show some improvement at the top of the conference if two USA South teams beat Salisbury in the same year. 

Or maybe it just means Salisbury is down.

This is the problem with a lot of these arguments. You can look at them five different ways and not come up with anything definitive, at least not until later in teh season.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on September 17, 2009, 11:27:46 pm
k-mack

 I was answering HSU85 question about .. I agree with you about needing more data to decide who the better teams are.. I will  get a better feel on Wesley this week at Del Val  and seeig how CNU bounces back.   But if both Sheahin for SU and Tunde for CNU are out that changes the dynamics of that game.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 18, 2009, 08:13:40 am
Is there any word on the injuries of those to players?  Does the selection committee take into account losses that may occur when a key player misses a game due to injury?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 18, 2009, 11:52:54 am
Is there any word on the injuries of those to players?  Does the selection committee take into account losses that may occur when a key player misses a game due to injury?
I have never heard a selection committee factoring player injuries into the deliberations.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: DutchFan2004 on September 19, 2009, 09:36:34 pm
Is there any word on the injuries of those to players?  Does the selection committee take into account losses that may occur when a key player misses a game due to injury?

I doubt they would ever get into those weeds.  How would they know after the last game who came out of it healthy?  You can't pick a team because they are now healthy or pick a team cause they should have been there if their star player only would have been there.  Injuries are part of the game. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on September 19, 2009, 11:12:31 pm
Is there any word on the injuries of those to players?  Does the selection committee take into account losses that may occur when a key player misses a game due to injury?

I doubt they would ever get into those weeds.  How would they know after the last game who came out of it healthy?  You can't pick a team because they are now healthy or pick a team cause they should have been there if their star player only would have been there.  Injuries are part of the game. 

Plus it can leave 'permanent' scars - some of us are still steamed about the selection process in 1973! >:(

Michigan and Ohio State (both undefeated, untied) played to a 10-10 tie.  Michigan dominated statistically, but star qb Dennis Franklin was injured in the game.  The Big Ten coaches narrowly voted to send OSU to the Rose Bowl.  Since the Big Ten did not then allow teams to participate in any other bowl game, Michigan's season was over after going 10-0-1!

The really aggravating thing is that Franklin was 100% healthy by Thanksgiving, much less New Year's.  (When it became known that Michigan State cast one of the OSU votes, I suspect it added about two TDs to UM's margin over the Sparties for at least a decade! ;))
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 20, 2009, 07:15:39 pm
Mr. Ypsi,

Thanks for the great story from 1973.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 27, 2009, 07:10:19 pm
Any thoughts on Pool B teams besides Wesley? 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 27, 2009, 07:40:59 pm
Any thoughts on Pool B teams besides Wesley?  

Wesley seems to be a lock.

Huntingdon picked up a nice win over Louisiana College.  A win over Millsaps this week really makes their case.

I think that the UAA will get a Pool B bid, probably CWRU.

IMHO, Salisbury is deep on the bubble.  If they can run the table, with wins over non-region Union, and teams that are likely to be regionally ranked such as Wesley and H-SC, then I think that they get a bid.

If Husson can beat Springfield, I think that puts them into contention.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on September 27, 2009, 07:48:59 pm
WOW.  I love early speculation, too, but this is like discussing basketball pool B before Christmas! :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 27, 2009, 07:59:03 pm
WOW.  I love early speculation, too, but this is like discussing basketball pool B before Christmas! :D

Except that Wesley has 2 more in-region games left in the season, Frostburg and Salisbury.

I look at CWRU and review the pre-season evaluation in Kickoff 2009 and project a 9-1/10-0 season.

There are 2 of the three bids.

Whose is left in Pool B?

The ACFC plus LaGrange and Huntingdon.

The ECFC and the UMAC?

Chapman and Macalester?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on September 27, 2009, 11:56:02 pm

Wesley has 2 more in-region games left in the season, Frostburg and Salisbury.

I look at CWRU and review the pre-season evaluation in Kickoff 2009 and project a 9-1/10-0 season.

There are 2 of the three bids.

Whose is left in Pool B?

The ACFC plus LaGrange and Huntingdon.

The ECFC and the UMAC?

Chapman and Macalester?

Is the Empire   6   8 (http://www.d3football.com/conference_info.php?conf=E8&year=2009) not in Pool B this year?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 28, 2009, 12:23:03 am

Wesley has 2 more in-region games left in the season, Frostburg and Salisbury.

I look at CWRU and review the pre-season evaluation in Kickoff 2009 and project a 9-1/10-0 season.

There are 2 of the three bids.

Whose is left in Pool B?

The ACFC plus LaGrange and Huntingdon.

The ECFC and the UMAC?

Chapman and Macalester?

Is the Empire  6  8 (http://www.d3football.com/conference_info.php?conf=E8&year=2009) not in Pool B this year?
The official handbook has not been released but I think that the Empire 8 needs to bring on 2 affiliates (Frostburg State and Salisbury) by the start of the 2011 season to maintain their Pool A bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on September 28, 2009, 12:36:44 am

Wesley has 2 more in-region games left in the season, Frostburg and Salisbury.

I look at CWRU and review the pre-season evaluation in Kickoff 2009 and project a 9-1/10-0 season.

There are 2 of the three bids.

Whose is left in Pool B?

The ACFC plus LaGrange and Huntingdon.

The ECFC and the UMAC?

Chapman and Macalester?

Is the Empire  6  8 (http://www.d3football.com/conference_info.php?conf=E8&year=2009) not in Pool B this year?
The official handbook has not been released but I think that the Empire 8 needs to bring on 2 affiliates (Frostburg State and Salisbury) by the start of the 2011 season to maintain their Pool A bid.

Meaning that they retain their Pool A bid until the 2011 season, even if they don't bring on 2 affiliates by then?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 28, 2009, 12:43:27 am

Wesley has 2 more in-region games left in the season, Frostburg and Salisbury.

I look at CWRU and review the pre-season evaluation in Kickoff 2009 and project a 9-1/10-0 season.

There are 2 of the three bids.

Whose is left in Pool B?

The ACFC plus LaGrange and Huntingdon.

The ECFC and the UMAC?

Chapman and Macalester?

Is the Empire  6  8 (http://www.d3football.com/conference_info.php?conf=E8&year=2009) not in Pool B this year?
The official handbook has not been released but I think that the Empire 8 needs to bring on 2 affiliates (Frostburg State and Salisbury) by the start of the 2011 season to maintain their Pool A bid.

Meaning that they retain their Pool A bid until the 2011 season, even if they don't bring on 2 affiliates by then?
They need to get one affiliate by 2011.

The E8 is Pool A in the 2009 and 2010 season.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 28, 2009, 12:54:04 am
Yes, there's a two-year grace period to hang onto an automatic bid once you've earned it.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 29, 2009, 01:40:08 pm
Mr. Ypsi,

Thanks for the great story from 1973.

Ypsi is full of great stories. I particularly liked that one too.

I agree with Ralph that I've never heard of a selection committee factoring injuries into account.

The committees are human, though, as we've learned, so even things not in the listed criteria occasionally creep into the minds. I think the line is probably drawn somewhere before injuries though.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: altor on September 29, 2009, 05:08:25 pm
In 2000, the D-I Basketball Committee gave Cincinnati a hit after Kenyon Martin suffered a season ending injury in the C-USA tournament.  I couldn't find an article regarding that incident specificlly, but I did find this one about Marquette last year that cited the UC seed in 2000.  http://www.athlonsports.com/college-basketball/16410/big-east-injury-could-impact-eagles-seeding (http://www.athlonsports.com/college-basketball/16410/big-east-injury-could-impact-eagles-seeding)

Quote
In the 1999-2000 season, Cincinnati was looking at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Then national player of the year Kenyon Martin broke his foot in the Conference USA Tournament against Saint Louis. Cincinnati lost that game and Martin was out for the year.

The NCAA selection committee viewed Cincinnati as a new team without Martin and dropped the Bearcats to a No. 2 seed. Cincinnati lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Tranghese was the chair of the NCAA committee that year.

"Cincinnati was arguably the No. 1 overall team in the country,’’ he said. "What the committee had to decide was how good was Cincinnati without Kenyon Martin. Some on the committee thought they should be a No. 3. We put them as a No. 2 seed.’’

My apologies if you were only referencing D-III and/or football.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 29, 2009, 05:40:40 pm
Altor...

Yeah, it was D-1 and not D-III, but you gave us the documentation to the incident!   That makes for good reading.

+1!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on September 29, 2009, 06:59:01 pm
It doesn't surprise me that in DI the selection committee for the basketball tournament would "manage" the process.  It seems in both football and basketball they have one eye on the big conferences and the other on the money.

It would be really difficult to say team A would have won two more games if they had not had the injuries and therefore they deserve to get into a tournament.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: altor on October 13, 2009, 09:55:25 am
When you see the first release of the Handbook, please post the link for all of us.  

2009 DIVISION III FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP HANDBOOK (Updated 10/12/2009) (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2009/09_3_football.pdf)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2009, 01:53:43 pm
When you see the first release of the Handbook, please post the link for all of us.  

2009 DIVISION III FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP HANDBOOK (Updated 10/12/2009) (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2009/09_3_football.pdf)
First draft of the Handbook is out.

23 Pool A/ 3 Pool B/ 6 Pool C bids.

That seems to be correct.

However, the Handbook Appendix C has omitted these programs:

St Schoastica MN
Anna Marie MA
Castleton State VT
SUNY Morrisville
Northwestern MN
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 13, 2009, 04:34:14 pm
Ralph, if the NCAA was smart they would pay you to be a consultant on this handbook.  They get stuff wrong every year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Bob.Gregg on October 14, 2009, 03:10:37 pm
Ralph, if the NCAA was smart they would pay you to be a consultant on this handbook.  They get stuff wrong every year.

Ron, that will never happen.  It would require them to actually ADMIT they get stuff wrong every year...and that doesn't even begin to take your opening (IF the NCAA was smart) premise into consideration...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 14, 2009, 05:41:20 pm
NCAA Smart!!! Isn't that an oxymoron  ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2009, 09:10:59 pm
Wesley and Huntingdon are making their cases as is CWRU.

It looks like those are the three.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on October 18, 2009, 09:25:50 pm
It seems that there is less drama and fewer pool B teams are having good seasons.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2009, 09:28:56 pm
It seems that there is less drama and fewer pool B teams are having good seasons.
The drama should return in 2011 when the UMAC and the ECFC move to Pool A.

Wesley, CWRU and Huntingdon will be fighting for the same bid, unless Huntingdon and LaGrange move into the USA South if/when Shenandoah leaves.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on October 18, 2009, 09:46:55 pm
In 2011 will there only be one pool B bid or will they reduce the pool C bids?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2009, 11:05:43 pm
In 2011 will there only be one pool B bid or will they reduce the pool C bids?
In post #640 of this thread, I project 25 Pool A bids, 1 Pool B and 6 Pool C bids in 2011.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: redswarm81 on October 18, 2009, 11:19:38 pm
It seems that there is less drama and fewer pool B teams are having good seasons.
The drama should return in 2011 when the UMAC and the ECFC move to Pool A.

Wesley, CWRU and Huntingdon will be fighting for the same bid, unless Huntingdon and LaGrange move into the USA South if/when Shenandoah leaves.

What does your crystal ball say about the Empire 6?  In 2011, they be relegated to Pool B eligible?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2009, 11:36:53 pm
It seems that there is less drama and fewer pool B teams are having good seasons.
The drama should return in 2011 when the UMAC and the ECFC move to Pool A.

Wesley, CWRU and Huntingdon will be fighting for the same bid, unless Huntingdon and LaGrange move into the USA South if/when Shenandoah leaves.

What does your crystal ball say about the Empire 6?  In 2011, they be relegated to Pool B eligible?
I understand that they have brought in Frostburg and Salisbury as affiliates in 2011.

If they do not sign the affiliation agreement, there might only be one bid for for 16 teams (UAA-4, the E-6, Macalester, Chapman and the four ACFC-4 schools, Wesley, Salisbury, Frostburg and Stevenson).

That would give 24 Pool A bids, 1 Pool B and 7 Pool C bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 19, 2009, 12:00:33 am
 I think we are all hopimg that the E 8 reconsiders and invites Wesley now that the NCAA has passed judgement on the infactions and punishment has been handed out.

 Ralph

 My question to you is , if that happens does Wesley(Delaware) get moved into the east region? Hard to do it with Salisbury and Frostburg St. because of the number of schools in Maryland.. But that's thinking ahead .. I know Wesley has an agreement to play Huntiongdon the next few years
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2009, 12:19:57 am
Delaware and Maryland are in Administrative Region #2  #1, so they are in-region for each other.

If they (E8) take Wesley, I hope that they take Stevenson as well.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on October 19, 2009, 12:40:08 am
Ralph

 I understand that. I wondered  if the NCAA would change Wesley to the East in stead of the
South. But thinking about it more I would guess they wouldn't because of Stevenson and the CAC possible addition in the future 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 19, 2009, 12:51:25 am
Ralph

 I understand that. I wondered  if the NCAA would change Wesley to the East in stead of the
South. But thinking about it more I would guess they wouldn't because of Stevenson and the CAC possible addition in the future 
A conference can ask for a multi-region waiver (like the SCAC has for its members).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 27, 2009, 11:24:49 pm
Pool B in the first round.

CWRU lost to Trine, 51-38.

Huntingdon lost to Mississippi College, 56-35.

Wesley beat North Carolina Wesleyan College, 55-23.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 29, 2009, 11:27:36 pm
Pool B in the first round.

CWRU lost to Trine, 51-38.

Huntingdon lost to Mississippi College, 56-35.

Wesley beat North Carolina Wesleyan College, 55-23.

Second Round

Wesley 43, Mississippi College 9

Third Round

Wesley 12, JHU 0

Semifinals

Mount Union 24, Wesley 7

Pool B went 3-3 in the 2009 Playoffs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on February 22, 2010, 11:21:42 pm
Pool B for 2010 (as I project it).

The UMAC-10  (Pool A in 2011)
The ECFC-8  (Pool A in 2011)
The UAA-4
The Independents (4, becoming 5) (Huntingdon, LaGrange, Chapman, and Macalester.  Add Stevenson in 2010.)
The ACFC-"3"  (Frostburg St and Salisbury to the E8 in 2011.)

Thirty 29 teams.  I think that means that we have 3 Pool B bids.


EDIT: Stevenson is developmental this season.

Source:  http://www.footballfoundation.org/news.php?id=2196

Hat tip to roocru for the article.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on February 23, 2010, 10:53:03 am
Unless something changes, the UMAC and ECFC going Pool A will mean there will only be 12 teams left in Pool B in 2011 for 1 bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on April 09, 2010, 11:01:22 pm
Pool B gets an infusion of new teams in sports other than football.

Nine TCCC members plan new DIII conference (http://www.ncaa.org/wps/portal/ncaahome?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/ncaa/ncaa/ncaa+news/ncaa+news+online/2010/division+iii/nine+tccc+members+plan+new+diii+conference_04_08_10_ncaa_news)

Quote
...
The nine institutions “share a focus on student-athlete success and commitment to standards for competitive play,” according to the announcement Wednesday by Dorothy J. Millhofer, director of communications at Nichols.

The other schools involved in the new conference will be Curry, Endicott, Gordon, Roger Williams, Salve Regina, University of New England, Wentworth Institute of Technology and Western New England.  ...

The remaining five TCCC teams (Anna Maria, Colby-Sawyer, Eastern Nazarene, New England College and Regis MA) have a core of teams that can add affiliates to maintain the TCCC AQ thru the 2012-13 season.

The exiting TCCC members that play football in the NEFC Boyd are:

1) Curry
2) Endicott
3) Nichols
4) Salve Regina
5) Western New England.

Update:  TCCC did not split apart.  [April 3, 2011]
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2010, 02:10:17 pm
D-III 2010 Football Handbook (http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2010/10_3_football.pdf)

Three Pool B bids for 2010.  28 teams

These are the Pool B teams.

North Region 4 teams

UAA (2 teams)
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago

UMAC (the "SLIAC-4")
Eureka College
Greenville College

West Region 9 teams

Independents
Chapman University
Macalester College

UMAC (the host UMAC-4)
Crown College
Martin Luther College
University of Minnesota, Morris
College of St. Scholastica

UMAC (the "SLIAC-4")
MacMurray College
Westminster College (Missouri)

Nebraska Wesleyan University (?NAIA?)

South Region 8 teams

UAA
Carnegie Mellon University
Washington University (Missouri)

ACFC
Frostburg State University  (Frostburg and Salisbury go to the E8 in 2011.)
Salisbury University
Wesley College

ECFC
Gallaudet University

Independents
Huntingdon College
La Grange College

East Region (7 teams)

ECFC
Anna Maria College
Becker College
Castleton State College
State University of New York Maritime College
Husson College
Mount Ida College
Norwich University



In 2011, the UMAC (8 teams) and ECFC (8 teams) are projected to earn Pool A bids for their conferences.  That leaves 9 or 10 teams in Pool B for 2011.

North Region 2 teams

UAA (2 teams)
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago


West Region 3 teams (3 teams?)

Chapman University
Macalester College

Nebraska Wesleyan University (NAIA (http://graphics.fansonly.com/schools/naia/member-services/championships/Qualifcation_Plans/qual_plans_pdf/qual_FB.pdf) website has Neb Wes participating in the NAIA.)

South Region 5 teams

UAA
Carnegie Mellon University
Washington University (Missouri)

Independents
Huntingdon College
La Grange College
Wesley College

East Region (0 teams)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 04, 2010, 07:39:14 pm
It seems that there is less drama and fewer pool B teams are having good seasons.
The drama should return in 2011 when the UMAC and the ECFC move to Pool A.

Wesley, CWRU and Huntingdon will be fighting for the same bid, unless Huntingdon and LaGrange move into the USA South if/when Shenandoah leaves.

Technically yes, but they'll also be eligible in Pool C. So if more than one went 10-0, no guarantee one would be left home.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Teamski on October 05, 2010, 03:22:30 pm
It seems that there is less drama and fewer pool B teams are having good seasons.
The drama should return in 2011 when the UMAC and the ECFC move to Pool A.

Wesley, CWRU and Huntingdon will be fighting for the same bid, unless Huntingdon and LaGrange move into the USA South if/when Shenandoah leaves.

Technically yes, but they'll also be eligible in Pool C. So if more than one went 10-0, no guarantee one would be left home.

Wow, Kieth.  It only took you almost a year to respond, hehehehe..... ;D  Talking with one of the Huntingdon guys before this last week's game, he mentioned that they would LOVE to find a home in either the USA South or some other conference.  It sucks being an Independent. 

-Ski
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 08, 2010, 10:51:27 pm
North Region 4 teams

UAA (2 teams)
Case Western Reserve University (4-0, at Oberlin)
University of Chicago (3-2 ,vs Denison)

UMAC (the "SLIAC-4")
Eureka College (0-4, at Westminster (Mo)
Greenville College (2-3, vs St Scholastica)

West Region 9 teams

Independents
Chapman University (1-2, at Claremont Mud-Scripps)
Macalester College (3-2, vs. Trinity Bible)

UMAC (the host UMAC-4)
Crown College (3-2, vs vs Northwestern)
Martin Luther College
University of Minnesota, Morris (3-1, vs Martin Luther)
College of St. Scholastica (3-2, at Greenville)

UMAC (the "SLIAC-4")
MacMurray College
Westminster College (Missouri) (2-2, vs Eureka)

Nebraska Wesleyan University (?NAIA?)

South Region 8 teams

UAA
Carnegie Mellon University (3-2, at Ohio Wesleyan)
Washington University (2-2, vs Wabash)

ACFC
Frostburg State University  (Frostburg and Salisbury go to the E8 in 2011.)
Salisbury University (4-1, open this week)
Wesley College (5-0, vs Newport News)

ECFC
Gallaudet University (1-2, at Norwich)

Independents
Huntingdon College (3-2, at Millsaps)
La Grange College

East Region (7 teams)

ECFC
Anna Maria College
Becker College
Castleton State College
Husson College
Mount Ida College
Norwich University (4-1, vs Galludet)
SUNY-Maritime (5-0, at Castleton State)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 08, 2010, 11:11:46 pm

Undefeated Teams
Case Western Reserve University (4-0, at Oberlin)
Wesley College (5-0, vs Newport News)
SUNY-Maritime (5-0, at Castleton State)

One Loss Teams
Salisbury University (4-1, open this week)
University of Minnesota, Morris (3-1, vs Martin Luther)
Norwich University (4-1, vs Gallaudet)

Two Loss Teams
University of Chicago (3-2 ,vs Denison)
Chapman University (1-2, at Claremont Mud-Scripps)
Macalester College (3-2, vs. Trinity Bible)
Crown College (3-2, vs vs Northwestern)
College of St. Scholastica (3-2, at Greenville)
Westminster College (Missouri) (2-2, vs Eureka)
Carnegie Mellon University (3-2, at Ohio Wesleyan)
Washington University (2-2, vs Wabash)
Gallaudet University (1-2, at Norwich)
Huntingdon College (3-2, at Millsaps)





Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Gray Fox on October 08, 2010, 11:31:19 pm
Chapman is a sleeper.  Their two losses are to NAIA teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 10, 2010, 03:11:47 pm
Conrad,
 I like that organization. Plus that's a list I don't have to make for ATN now!

 Although I guess it needs an update. Same top 3 at least.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 10, 2010, 03:50:37 pm
I am on it!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 10, 2010, 04:21:59 pm
Undefeated Teams
Case Western Reserve University (5-0, beat Oberlin 48-36, next at Hiram)
Wesley College (6-0, beat Newport News 64-7, next vs. Southern Virginia)
SUNY-Maritime (5-0, beat Castleton State 41-28, at Anna Maria)

One Loss Teams
Salisbury University (4-1, open last week, next vs. Huntingdon)
Norwich University (5-1, beat Gallaudet 31-23, next vs Husson)

Two Loss Teams
University of Chicago (4-2 ,beat Denison 36-7, open next week)
University of Minnesota, Morris (3-2, lost to Martin Luther 28-21, next at Northwestern)
Macalester College (4-2, beat Trinity Bible 41-28, open next week)
Crown College (4-2, beat Northwestern 30-24, next vs Eureka)
Westminster College (Missouri) (3-2, beat Eureka 36-14. next at Martin Luther)
Carnegie Mellon University (4-2, beat Ohio Wesleyan 35-23, next vs. Wittenberg)
Washington University (3-2, beat Wabash 24-20, next at Wooster)

Gallaudet University (1-3, lost to Norwich)
Huntingdon College (3-3, lost to Millsaps)
Chapman University (1-3, lost Claremont Mud-Scripps)
College of St. Scholastica (3-3, lost to Greenville)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 10, 2010, 04:33:12 pm
IMHO, Wesley is nearly a lock at this time.  Only Salisbury and Kean remain (plus Southern Virginia.)

CWRU is also solid.  They are not likely to have 2 losses in the last 5 games, and they should have a good OWP/OOWP.  (Wooster looks vulnerable.)

The third spot seems to be SUNY-Maritime's to lose.  If they can run the table, then they make a strong case for a bid.  They will benefit if Wesley gives Salisbury its second in-region loss.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 11, 2010, 08:52:25 pm
Norwich/SUNY Maritime game should be interesting/important one too.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 18, 2010, 11:32:21 am
Undefeated Teams
Case Western Reserve University (6-0, beat Hiram 41-0, next vs Wooster)
Wesley College (7-0, beat Southern Virginia 52-3, open next week)
SUNY-Maritime (7-0, beat Becker 23-0, at Mount Ida)

One Loss Teams
Salisbury University (5-1, beat Huntingdon 45-21, at Union)
Norwich University (5-1, beat Husson 52-7, at Anna Maria)

Two Loss Teams
University of Chicago (4-2 ,open, at Kenyon)
University of Minnesota, Morris (4-2, beat Northwestern 35-33. next vs. St Scholastica)
Macalester College (4-2, open, next vs Carleton)
Crown College (5-2, beat Eureka 36-14, next at MacMurry)
Carnegie Mellon University (4-2, open, next vs. Wittenberg)
Washington University (4-2, beat Wooster 14-13, next vs Oberlin)

Westminster College (Missouri) (3-3, loss to Martin Luther 28-23)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on October 21, 2010, 05:02:18 pm
Thanks for keeping the running update going.
CWRU and Wesley look like locks (not that either of them is a surprise).  Even with a loss, they're probably in.

SUNY-Maritime hasn't beaten anybody, and they do have their two toughest games coming up (Norwich & Mt. Ida)...but they are still favored to go undefeated.

Salisbury is almost definitely BETTER than SUNY-Maritime, but is probably stuck on the outside looking in unless they can beat Wesley and/or SUNY-Maritime trips up.  Too bad; going 7-2 with losses to Hampden-Sydney and Wesley is a nice season.

Hard to imagine any of the two-loss teams getting in, although WashU might have a case if they run the table (given that they'd have wins over Wabash and CWRU).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 21, 2010, 10:29:18 pm
Thanks for keeping the running update going.
CWRU and Wesley look like locks (not that either of them is a surprise).  Even with a loss, they're probably in.

SUNY-Maritime hasn't beaten anybody, and they do have their two toughest games coming up (Norwich & Mt. Ida)...but they are still favored to go undefeated.

Salisbury is almost definitely BETTER than SUNY-Maritime, but is probably stuck on the outside looking in unless they can beat Wesley and/or SUNY-Maritime trips up.  Too bad; going 7-2 with losses to Hampden-Sydney and Wesley is a nice season.

Hard to imagine any of the two-loss teams getting in, although WashU might have a case if they run the table (given that they'd have wins over Wabash and CWRU).
If HSC and Wesley are both undefeated and ranked in the Top 3 of the Final South Region rankings, I think that Salisbury might contend as a Pool C bid.

One-loss Hardin-Simmons still has to play McMurry.  HSU has non-conference/in-region wins over Whitworth and Willamette.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 21, 2010, 10:38:12 pm
Quote
If HSC and Wesley are both undefeated and ranked in the Top 3 of the Final South Region rankings, I think that Salisbury might contend as a Pool C bid.

Week 7 is too early to definitively state what the post-Week 11 Pool C picture will look like. This time every year there look like a ton of worthy teams and some years a bunch lose, and some years, not enough do to make two-loss teams worth watching.

You are right about Salisbury being better, and I wish the door was open to two-loss teams a little more, but this is also part of the reason Salisbury is joining a conference, so it can get a fair shake at a playoff spot. Plenty of two-loss teams get in via AQ.

Also, H-SC isn't finishing undefeated, so clearly this is all moot. :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ryan Tipps on October 21, 2010, 10:47:42 pm
Also, H-SC isn't finishing undefeated, so clearly this is all moot. :D

Almost Week 8. You held off as long as you could, didn't you. ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 22, 2010, 04:46:23 pm
Hard to imagine any of the two-loss teams getting in, although WashU might have a case if they run the table (given that they'd have wins over Wabash and CWRU).

Note that WashU's win over Wabash is non-regional and technically would not be considered by the committee unless the commitee had to get deep into secondary criteria, which is doubtful.  On the flip side, WashU's loss to Wittenberg isn't regional either.  If the Bears were to win their three UAA games, you'd assume that WashU and CWRU would both have 1-loss regional records, and with WashU having a h2h result over CWRU the Bears should be considered ahead of CWRU...if, of course, the two were at the table at the same time. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 23, 2010, 11:05:28 pm
Undefeated Teams
Case Western Reserve University (7-0, beat Wooster 28-14, next at Chicago)
Wesley College (7-0, open, next at Salisbury)
SUNY-Maritime (8-0, beat Mount Ida 37-35, next vs. Norwich)

One Loss Teams
Salisbury University (6-1, beat Union 52-21, next vs. Wesley)
Norwich University (6-1, beat Anna Maria 81-7, next at SUNY Maritime)

Two Loss Teams
University of Chicago (5-2 ,beat Kenyon 35-14, vs. Case Western)
Washington University (5-2, beat Oberlin 21-7, vs Carnegie Mellon)
 


Crown College (5-2, beat Eureka 36-14, next at MacMurry no score as yet)


Carnegie Mellon University (4-3, lost to Wittenberg 27-21, at Washington U.)
University of Minnesota, Morris (4-3, lost. St Scholastica 28-7)
Macalester College (4-3, lost Carleton 42-27)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: MasterJedi on October 23, 2010, 11:07:29 pm
If Case, Wesley and SUNY Maritime go undefeated they should be locks. SUNY is obviously weaker compared to other teams but they'd have a shot to defeat at least one team depending on who they get matched up with, but they'll fall out pretty fast.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: theoriginalupstate on October 23, 2010, 11:33:13 pm
If Case, Wesley and SUNY Maritime go undefeated they should be locks. SUNY is obviously weaker compared to other teams but they'd have a shot to defeat at least one team depending on who they get matched up with, but they'll fall out pretty fast.

Unless they get matched up with St. Lawrence, SUNY-Maritime would be a one and done...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 27, 2010, 05:06:06 pm
http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/10/27/first-2010-regional-rankings/

First regional rankings are out.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2010, 08:44:20 pm
Pool B

East Region

6. SUNY-Maritime 8-0 8-0*  SUNY-Maritime wins, 20-2.

8. Norwich 7-1 7-1*

*Play at SUNY-Maritime on Oct. 30th


North Region

5. Case Western Reserve 6-0 7-0  (Has 3 UAA games to finish the season, and lost to Chicago, 24-20.)

South Region

3. Wesley 4-0 7-0**  (Wesley beat Salisbury 17-14.)

7. Salisbury 4-1 6-1**

** Play at Wesley on Oct. 30th.

West Region

No Pool B teams are ranked.



Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on October 28, 2010, 12:24:38 pm
I hate to ask this, especially when I could just do the research and find out myself, but how many pool B's are there this year?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HScoach on October 28, 2010, 12:49:26 pm
2 more than there should be.......
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on October 28, 2010, 01:33:51 pm
Thanks HScoach :D!!!!
Does that mean you're a SUNY supporter?  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 28, 2010, 09:05:44 pm
I hate to ask this, especially when I could just do the research and find out myself, but how many pool B's are there this year?

It's not even really research so much as clicking the FAQ or reading the blog or the ATN column, where we continually mention the basics over and over, knowing people are new to Division III or the playoffs or forget over the offseason.

I think I'll stick with the rest of the board in making you work for it instead of just telling you though :D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on October 29, 2010, 07:39:47 am
2 more than there should be.......

You do understand how they calculate the number of Pool B teams that make it, right?  Or do you just think UWW and UMU should be the only teams to make the playoffs?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HScoach on October 29, 2010, 08:05:27 am
2 more than there should be.......

You do understand how they calculate the number of Pool B teams that make it, right?  Or do you just think UWW and UMU should be the only teams to make the playoffs?

You do understand a joke right?  Yeesz, lighten up Francis.

And no, I don't want only Mount and Whitewater to immediately go straight to Salem.  The best part of the season is the ride getting to Salem, not the actual Stagg itself.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on October 29, 2010, 09:03:04 am
You do understand a joke right?

Yeah, they're supposed to be funny.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on October 29, 2010, 09:04:42 am
K-Mack,

Thanks!  I did finally just go to the faq's and look it up.  I didn't know whether the number of pool B slots change over time due to more conferences getting the aq bid.    I should have known better ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 29, 2010, 11:29:06 am
K-Mack,

Thanks!  I did finally just go to the faq's and look it up.  I didn't know whether the number of pool B slots change over time due to more conferences getting the aq bid.    I should have known better ;D

They may change. But we keep up in the FAQ. And I just wrote a blog about it not two days ago.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 29, 2010, 11:40:14 am
2 more than there should be.......

You do understand how they calculate the number of Pool B teams that make it, right?  Or do you just think UWW and UMU should be the only teams to make the playoffs?

Somebody's got Pool A envy.   :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on October 29, 2010, 01:00:00 pm
2 more than there should be.......

You do understand how they calculate the number of Pool B teams that make it, right?  Or do you just think UWW and UMU should be the only teams to make the playoffs?

Somebody's got Pool B envy.   :)

Fixed that for you.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 29, 2010, 01:24:20 pm
Wow.  Aren't we testy today, j4j?  Just having a little fun...go have yourself a halloween-themed cupcake and count to ten.  Nobody's out to get you, I promise.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 30, 2010, 09:29:48 pm
IMHO, SUNY-Maritime is one win away from a Pool B bid.

As to who will get the third Pool B bid, I think that we need to see the Regional Rankings to figure out the Salisbury/CWRU/other UAA/Norwich tangle.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSC85 on October 31, 2010, 07:57:16 pm
Salisbury has only two losses and both to undefeated teams that are in the Regional Rankings.  They are only 7 points away from an undefeated record.  I would consider them one of the top 32 teams to be considered for the tournament.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 31, 2010, 08:11:09 pm
Results versus Regionally Ranked opponents may help Salisbury.

The thing that will help Salisbury is if a USA South Champion Pool A CNU makes it into the final South Region Ranking to give Salisbury a 1-2 record versus Regionally Ranked teams.  CNU at 6-4 is probably a reach.

In any case, Salisbury beat the co-leaders in the USA South, NCWC and CNU.  CNU currently has the tie-breaker.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 01, 2010, 07:47:08 am
Leading in the front page poll: Greenville.

Seriously Greenville (6-3)?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 01, 2010, 10:31:30 am
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on November 01, 2010, 11:44:39 am
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?

Could we change the name from Poll to Popularity Contest?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HScoach on November 01, 2010, 12:15:49 pm
That's what every poll is.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 01, 2010, 01:02:59 pm
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?

Could we change the name from Poll to Popularity Contest?

See HScoach's response. Don't hate on Greenville for turning out the vote among its constituents.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on November 01, 2010, 01:34:35 pm
Don't hate on Greenville for turning out the vote among its constituents.

I'm not hating on Greenville, I'm hating on the poll.  Some people see a question and answer it, not just vote for their favorite team.

The poll might as well read "Who is the most totally super-cool team out of these four?"
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 01, 2010, 01:40:27 pm
Don't hate on Greenville for turning out the vote among its constituents.

I'm not hating on Greenville, I'm hating on the poll.  Some people see a question and answer it, not just vote for their favorite team.

The poll might as well read "Who is the most totally super-cool team out of these four?"

Or, which of these four teams sends more fans to D3football.com.

You're really hating on the respondents to the poll more than anything. This isn't much different from any other poll we've run. It's just that Case and Wash U don't have enough fans who read the site or haven't pushed people to vote the way Greenville has.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: usee on November 01, 2010, 01:40:54 pm
Don't hate on Greenville for turning out the vote among its constituents.

I'm not hating on Greenville, I'm hating on the poll.  Some people see a question and answer it, not just vote for their favorite team.

The poll might as well read "Who is the most totally super-cool team out of these four?"

If that were the case I would be inclined to hit "E, none of the above"
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on November 01, 2010, 05:16:06 pm

I'm not hating on Greenville, I'm hating on the poll.  Some people see a question and answer it, not just vote for their favorite team.

The poll might as well read "Who is the most totally super-cool team out of these four?"
You can always start your own d3football website and make your own polls since you have such a problem with this poll.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on November 01, 2010, 06:19:13 pm
You can always start your own d3football website and make your own polls since you have such a problem with this poll.

Well that logically follows my complaint.  ::)

But, yes, Pat is right.  I meant to complain more about people who take polls than people who make polls in this case.

Or I could just do what I usually do and ignore poll results and enjoy the rest of the site.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 01, 2010, 07:15:39 pm
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?

This CWRU fan voted with his head and not his heart and selected Salisbury.

Greenville would be one of those "fringe Poll B teams" as I just heard Keith describe in the podcast.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Teamski on November 01, 2010, 08:17:34 pm
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?

This CWRU fan voted with his head and not his heart and selected Salisbury.

Greenville would be one of those "fringe Poll B teams" as I just heard Keith describe in the podcast.

I concur.  Greenville's strength of schedule is like 108th compared to Salisbury's 15th.  If the two met, my money would be on Salisbury.

-Ski
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 01, 2010, 09:50:23 pm
greenville even being considered is a joke.  salisbury is tough, but 2 loses looks bad.  3 is even worse.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Genius on November 01, 2010, 10:54:34 pm
Since i watched Greenville beat Wash U last year and scrimmage them this year and dominate them i voted them over Wash U.

Salisbury is a legit pick. However i can't vote for a team who didn't win their league. Smells like BSC stuff...i mean BCS.

If Case wins out they should go. But i think any of the team listed could be each other.

And Salisbury schedule isn't that tough other than 2 teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on November 02, 2010, 11:33:34 am
greenville even being considered is a joke.  salisbury is tough, but 2 loses looks bad.  3 is even worse.
Having two close losses to the teams that Salisbury lost to have to be put in consideration....right?
I think there are a few scenarios that could give one of three teams from the UAA (Case, Chicago, or WashU) some consideration for the final spot too.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on November 02, 2010, 01:46:10 pm
greenville even being considered is a joke.  salisbury is tough, but 2 loses looks bad.  3 is even worse.
Having two close losses to the teams that Salisbury lost to have to be put in consideration....right?
I think there are a few scenarios that could give one of three teams from the UAA (Case, Chicago, or WashU) some consideration for the final spot too.

I don't think anyone is doubting Salisbury as a valid choice.  It's Greenville that should not even be considered (let alone be winning the poll, although I see WashU just passed them up).  It's nearly impossible to get in with 3 losses (and all 3 being in-region), so you better have some spectacular reason to get in in spite of those 3 losses, which Greenville surely doesn't have.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: usee on November 02, 2010, 02:05:15 pm
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?

This CWRU fan voted with his head and not his heart and selected Salisbury.

Greenville would be one of those "fringe Poll B teams" as I just heard Keith describe in the podcast.

I concur.  Greenville's strength of schedule is like 108th compared to Salisbury's 15th.  If the two met, my money would be on Salisbury.

-Ski

hmmm....Let's see.....Wheaton's strength of schedule is 12th and they are 8-0. Mt Union's is #122 (8-0). If the two meet, where is your money? :)

Again, my point (not related to your's here) is that SOS is very deceiving and team's are now rewarded for figuring out how to play that game. Wheaton has been doing it for several years. Now the entire CCIW is doing it (scheduling average opponents).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jam40jeff on November 02, 2010, 02:11:19 pm
Greenville represents on our site. Where are the Case fans?

This CWRU fan voted with his head and not his heart and selected Salisbury.

Greenville would be one of those "fringe Poll B teams" as I just heard Keith describe in the podcast.

I concur.  Greenville's strength of schedule is like 108th compared to Salisbury's 15th.  If the two met, my money would be on Salisbury.

-Ski

hmmm....Let's see.....Wheaton's strength of schedule is 12th and they are 8-0. Mt Union's is #122 (8-0). If the two meet, where is your money? :)

Again, my point (not related to your's here) is that SOS is very deceiving and team's are now rewarded for figuring out how to play that game. Wheaton has been doing it for several years. Now the entire CCIW is doing it (scheduling average opponents).

Yes, but Greenville has 3 losses.  So what makes them stick out amongst a crowd of 1 and 2 loss teams?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: usee on November 02, 2010, 03:27:53 pm
They played Millikin tough?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 02, 2010, 04:06:38 pm
Greenville is only a player in this game if other teams lose, but it does seem very possible that other teams might lose.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 03, 2010, 03:21:09 pm
Latest regional rankings posted:
http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/03/ncaas-second-regional-rankings/
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: martin on November 07, 2010, 03:12:38 pm
Assume that 10-0 SUNY Maritime is in.  Wesley beats 5-4 Kean at home to go 9-0 and is in.

I think that leaves three teams for the last Pool B slot.
Norwich is 8-2.
Salisbury is 6-2 and plays at 2-7 Frostburg State.  A loss eliminates Salisbury.
The Chicago-Wash U winner will be 8-2.  Case can be 8-2 but with losses to both Chicago and Wash is out.

So who gets that last spot?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: algernon on November 07, 2010, 04:04:59 pm
Assume that 10-0 SUNY Maritime is in.  Wesley beats 5-4 Kean at home to go 9-0 and is in.

I think that leaves three teams for the last Pool B slot.
Norwich is 8-2.
Salisbury is 6-2 and plays at 2-7 Frostburg State.  A loss eliminates Salisbury.
The Chicago-Wash U winner will be 8-2.  Case can be 8-2 but with losses to both Chicago and Wash is out.

So who gets that last spot?

I'd go with Salisbury.  They lost by only 3 to Wesley (9-0), and by only 4 to Hampden-Sydney(8-1).  They have a 48-point win over the USA South champ, Christopher Newport.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 07, 2010, 04:26:22 pm
CNU isn't the USA South champ yet. 5-4 overall, too. I'd be more impressed with the Wash U win against Wabash, or, if Chicago wins, Chicago beating Case and Wash U. That's if we were basing it solely on the "most impressive win" quotient.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: martin on November 07, 2010, 08:08:06 pm
If Chicago makes the playoffs, the Maroons might have a quick exit.  Chicago lost to Elmhurst 31-20.  The game was not that close.  Elmhurst led 31-7.  Chicago scored twice in the last five minutes to make it close.  Elmhurst lost to North Central 47-13.  And a Chicago-North Central first round matchup is likely - NCC a #1 seed, UC a #8.

But on the bright side, a week of good press as Chicago's football history is resurrected.

For the first time, the Maroons will be competing for a spot in the Stagg Bowl, named after their first football coach (from 1892-1932) Amos Alonzo Stagg. (http://athletics.uchicago.edu/history/history-stagg.htm)

Many reminders of the first ever Heisman Trophy winner, Jay Berwanger (http://www.heisman.com/winners/j-berwanger35.php)

Then there are the NFL connections.  The Maroons are the true Monsters of the Midway (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monsters_of_the_Midway).  People may find this hard to believe, but at one time professional football was not that popular.  To try to get some of the appeal of college football to rub off on the Chicago Bears, George Halas took the orange and blue colors of the University of Illinois and the wishbone C logo and nickname of the University of Chicago.

Also, "We'll never forget the way you thrilled the nation with your T-formation" from "Bear Down, Chicago Bears (http://www.chicagobears.com/fancenter/BearsFightSongLyrics.asp)".  I recommend the Chicago Symphony Orchestra version (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG8OpQyY6TI).  Also the a capella version by Bryan Griffin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sct9igr7wMA) of the Lyric Opera is pretty cool.  Well the T-formation came from Clark Shaughnessy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clark_Shaughnessy) who was Chicago's coach when they dropped football in 1939.  The Bears used it to defeat the Redskins 73-0 in the 1940 NFL Championship Game.

The Maroons also have a connection to the now Arizona Cardinals.  They began life as a south side Chicago football team and joined the NFL as the Chicago Cardinals.  They got their nickname as the result of some used jerseys they purchased from UofC (http://www.azcardinals.com/history/franchise.html):
Quote
In 1901, the team gained longstanding identification when O'Brien, finding a bargain, bought used jerseys from the nearby University of Chicago. The jerseys were faded maroon in color, prompting O'Brien to declare, "That's not maroon, it's Cardinal red!" The club's permanent nickname had been born!

Uof C was also the inspiration for the best college football fight song - the University of Michigan's "
The Victors". (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hail_to_the_victors) From the Michigan Daily (http://web.archive.org/web/20070213074801/http://www.pub.umich.edu/daily/1998/sep/09-21-98/news/news10.html):
Quote
The Michigan fight song, "The Victors!," celebrates 100 years of leading the Wolverines into battle on the field this season.

It was on a train ride back to Ann Arbor after the 1898 football conference championship that then-student Louis Elbel jotted down the words that would eventually adorn the outside of the Big House.

"Having the fight song written by a student embodies the school spirit even more," said John Schmidt, a former marcher who now works as the band's physician.

Elbel, inspired after watching the one-point victory over what was then the heaviest team in the conference - the Chicago Maroons - thought the Wolverines needed a fight song that matched their power.

Stagg and Chicago so annoyed Michigan that the Wolverines quit the Big Ten from 1907-1916.  Stagg ran Chicago (some say not just the athletic department) and the Big Ten.  You can check out "Stagg's University: The Rise, Decline, and Fall of Big-Time Football at Chicago (http://www.amazon.com/Staggs-University-Decline-Big-Time-Football/dp/0252067916)" by Robin Lester.

Some mention may be made of Chicago's national championships in 1905 and 1913 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_National_Championship).  And their seven Big Ten Championships.  And their 4-0 record against Notre Dame.



Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Titan Q on November 07, 2010, 08:29:04 pm
martin, don't be a stranger here...you're missed on these boards!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 07, 2010, 08:41:32 pm
If Chicago played Notre Dame THIS year, they might be 5-0! ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wdelsean on November 08, 2010, 11:48:08 am
Assuming Wesley and SUNY-Maritime are in, there are the 5 2-loss teams.

(BY SOS)

#9 Salisbury - 4-2 region (Frostburg)
#56 Chicago - 7-2 region (Washington)
#66 Case Western - 6-2 region (Carnagie Mellon)
#123 Norwich - 8-2 region (FINISHED)
#200 Washington - 4-1 region (Chicago)

For the sake of argument, I'm going to give Case and Salisbury victories, leaving us with the Chicago/WashU game as the swing.

IF Chicago wins...

Salisbury 5-2
Chicago 8-2
Case Western 7-2
Norwich 8-2

Case is out due to the loss to Chicago, while Norwich's SOS will be too high in my opinion.

Salisbury's SOS will take a fairly serious hit against Frostburg, while Chicago's will go up, it may come down to how close they end up getting.   Salisbury's is .593, while Chicago is .526 (thanks D3football/Presto)  Chicago's best wins would be 7-2 Concordia and Washington, while Salisbury's best wins are NC-Wesleyan and Christopher Newport.  Neither will have beaten a regionally ranked opponent nor played anyone in common.  Who did you beat vs. who did you play?  Tough call but I'll say the SOS gets Salisbury in.

If Washington wins...

Salisbury 5-2
Case Western 7-2
Norwich 8-2
Washington 5-1

Case is out due to the loss to Washington, while Norwich's SOS will be too high in my opinion.

Washington's SOS is currently 200th, and even with the Chicago boost they have no chance of getting it anywhere near .500.  That said, they would only have one regional loss.  Would the committee reward WashU for only losing one game in region?  The east regional rankings having a unbeaten SUNY-Maritime behind several one-loss teams with better SOS act as a clue to me that SOS will trump that extra loss.  Advante: Salisbury.

Therefore I say a Gulls win against Frostburg puts them in, but there is a case to be made for the Washington/Chicago winner either way, and if I'm Salisbury, I'm probably rooting for WashU.







Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: joelmama on November 08, 2010, 06:16:17 pm
You omitted in the analysis of Chicago their win over Case which is probably the best win of any of the comparisons.  I think Chicago gets in based on what you have there.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 08, 2010, 06:22:10 pm
I think secondary criteria have to be taken into account in Pool B, as I mentioned in the podcast today, adn that boosts Wash U's SOS significantly.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: joelmama on November 08, 2010, 06:31:37 pm
I agree but on the other hand if Chicago were to win they would have beat:

1. Concordia 7-3 or 8-2 last game looks to be about a toss up
2. Case Western Reserve likely 8-2
Washington U 7-3

While Salisbury has only beaten one team with a record better than 6-4


Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 08, 2010, 06:50:46 pm
i dont think salisbury gets in, but to defend there not beating teams better then 6 - 4.  chicago hasnt played anyone on the level of wesley or hampden-sydney.  if they had then they likely would not even be in the pool b conversation.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: joelmama on November 08, 2010, 10:05:05 pm
Wesleydad,

They did play play Wabash, and Case Western who are not too far off of the teams you mentioned and they did beat Case while Salisbury lost to those you mentioned.  IMO you shouldn't get credit for a playing a tough schedule if you lose them. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 09, 2010, 08:38:41 pm
joel, salisbury's win against uncw is as good as any that chicago has.  the lose to wabash is comparable to the lose to hampden sydney.  if chicago beats wash u then it will be interesting.  as i said i dont think salisbury gets in with 2 loses, but if they are the top team left then they should get in.  if all teams being considered have at least 2 loses then who they lost to has to be considered.  i guess that is why they have the owp and oowp as criteria for picking the teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 09, 2010, 10:47:21 pm
i dont think salisbury gets in, but to defend there not beating teams better then 6 - 4.  chicago hasnt played anyone on the level of wesley or hampden-sydney.  if they had then they likely would not even be in the pool b conversation.

I think Salisbury gets the spot.

If the primary criteria break down as wdelsean explains earlier, and it goes to secondary criteria, it's hard to ignore a three-point loss to a No. 1 seed and a four-point loss to a Pool C possible.

Results against all ranked (regionally ranked, not D3football.com ranked) teams in Division III is among the secondary criteria. And it says results, not wins.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ryan Tipps on November 09, 2010, 11:07:33 pm
And it says results, not wins.

Thank you for saying that!

I highlight that point a lot when people email me with playoff questions. The criteria specifically don't say record against the opponents, they say results. That leads me to believe that close losses as well as blowout wins factor into the equation uniquely.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 10, 2010, 12:09:07 am
And it says results, not wins.

Thank you for saying that!

I highlight that point a lot when people email me with playoff questions. The criteria specifically don't say record against the opponents, they say results. That leads me to believe that close losses as well as blowout wins factor into the equation uniquely.

Yup. I think it's vague enough to provide an opening for subjectivity to creep in. The committee can consider those results any way it wants.

In the case of Salisbury, they'd be very much doing the right thing, IMHO. Three points vs. a top 5 team is significant. And then at least one other game that says it wasn't a fluke.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: joelmama on November 10, 2010, 01:49:48 pm
Doesn't a win against a ranked team beat out a loss to a ranked team though?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AUKaz00 on November 10, 2010, 03:18:01 pm
Wesley, SUNY-Maritime and Salisbury are the only Pool B teams to make the final (released) Regional Rankings.  Hard to imagine an unranked team getting in the discussion.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 10, 2010, 03:45:17 pm
AUKaz00, makes sense to me.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on November 10, 2010, 06:24:47 pm
Wesley, SUNY-Maritime and Salisbury are the only Pool B teams to make the final (released) Regional Rankings.  Hard to imagine an unranked team getting in the discussion.
I wouldn't use that rational because one region could be stronger than the other. 
In regards to Salisbury, their losses are losses the same as WashU's and Chicago's.  If it comes down to those three, which one will get eliminated next week for sure b/c they play eachother, I think you'll have to look at who they beat.  Right now I would give it to one of the UAA schools because I think they've beat better competition as it has been mentioned before.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 10, 2010, 06:32:20 pm
Wesley, SUNY-Maritime and Salisbury are the only Pool B teams to make the final (released) Regional Rankings.  Hard to imagine an unranked team getting in the discussion.
I wouldn't use that rational because one region could be stronger than the other. 
In regards to Salisbury, their losses are losses the same as WashU's and Chicago's.  If it comes down to those three, which one will get eliminated next week for sure b/c they play eachother, I think you'll have to look at who they beat.  Right now I would give it to one of the UAA schools because I think they've beat better competition as it has been mentioned before.

Don't know for sure about football, but in basketball it is established that the committees actually rank MORE than ten (they only release the top ten).  So if whoever wins the WashU/UChi game is ranked at least in the top 12 of their region, Salisbury may not be a sure thing.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AUKaz00 on November 10, 2010, 08:46:49 pm
Wesley, SUNY-Maritime and Salisbury are the only Pool B teams to make the final (released) Regional Rankings.  Hard to imagine an unranked team getting in the discussion.
I wouldn't use that rational because one region could be stronger than the other. 
In regards to Salisbury, their losses are losses the same as WashU's and Chicago's.  If it comes down to those three, which one will get eliminated next week for sure b/c they play eachother, I think you'll have to look at who they beat.  Right now I would give it to one of the UAA schools because I think they've beat better competition as it has been mentioned before.

Don't know for sure about football, but in basketball it is established that the committees actually rank MORE than ten (they only release the top ten).  So if whoever wins the WashU/UChi game is ranked at least in the top 12 of their region, Salisbury may not be a sure thing.

WashU is also in the South, so they'd have to jump Salisbury in the final rankings and since neither WashU or Chicago is currently ranked, the winner won't get the benefit of a quality win from the result.  Just as the committee seems to be telegraphing what they're going to be doing with seeding by jumping Mount Union over NCC, I think they are telling us who is in the driver's seat for the 3 Pool B bids.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: joelmama on November 11, 2010, 04:06:26 pm
Wesley, SUNY-Maritime and Salisbury are the only Pool B teams to make the final (released) Regional Rankings.  Hard to imagine an unranked team getting in the discussion.
I wouldn't use that rational because one region could be stronger than the other.  
In regards to Salisbury, their losses are losses the same as WashU's and Chicago's.  If it comes down to those three, which one will get eliminated next week for sure b/c they play eachother, I think you'll have to look at who they beat.  Right now I would give it to one of the UAA schools because I think they've beat better competition as it has been mentioned before.

Don't know for sure about football, but in basketball it is established that the committees actually rank MORE than ten (they only release the top ten).  So if whoever wins the WashU/UChi game is ranked at least in the top 12 of their region, Salisbury may not be a sure thing.

WashU is also in the South, so they'd have to jump Salisbury in the final rankings and since neither WashU or Chicago is currently ranked, the winner won't get the benefit of a quality win from the result.  Just as the committee seems to be telegraphing what they're going to be doing with seeding by jumping Mount Union over NCC, I think they are telling us who is in the driver's seat for the 3 Pool B bids.
I think you are correct but it still makes sense to me that a win over a ranked team is better than a close loss to a ranked team.  Maybe I am too used to the harbin computer pints system used in Ohio HS.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on November 11, 2010, 04:42:59 pm
Wash U also lost to a 3-6 Rhodes team.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: WashUDad on November 12, 2010, 05:33:05 am
and Beat Wabash, Wooster and Case Western... but yes the loss to Rhodes is horrible
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: UofCAlum on November 13, 2010, 01:05:26 pm
Certainly the NCAA selection committee views injuries in the same way as they do for the D1 Basketball tournament right?  In that case, the committee must take into consideration that Chicago’s two losses occurred when they played without their QB and Left Tackle.  Both got hurt early on against Elmhurst and neither played at all vs. Wabash.  In fact, Chicago’s third string QB played most of the game against Wabash.  Since the players returned, Chicago is undefeated.
 
Another factor the committee would most likely take into consideration is that both of Salisbury’s losses took place at home while both of Chicago’s occurred on the road.
 
I’m not saying that either of these factors should be dispositive but I do think it’s entirely reasonable that the committee considers them when trying to make a determination on who should be the third Pool B team.  Of course, if they just selected the actual three best Pool B teams…both Salisbury and the Chicago/Wash U winner would go and SUNY Maritime would be left out.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 13, 2010, 01:17:38 pm
Certainly the NCAA selection committee views injuries in the same way as they do for the D1 Basketball tournament right? 

Not really. Every team has injuries, right? This is football, after all, not basketball.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dc_has_been on November 13, 2010, 04:20:49 pm
Alright, Chicago takes down WashU and finishes 8-2 and Salisbury is 8-2 too.  Throw out who they lost to and by how much and compare who they beat and who do you think deserves the final pool b bid? 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: AUKaz00 on November 13, 2010, 06:52:41 pm
Alright, Chicago takes down WashU and finishes 8-2 and Salisbury is 8-2 too.  Throw out who they lost to and by how much and compare who they beat and who do you think deserves the final pool b bid? 

Why compare who they beat when the committee considers results of games played?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: WashUDad on November 14, 2010, 12:04:30 am
Chicago. For the player in uniform doing a kegstand after
Their win
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 14, 2010, 01:15:34 am
Our projections: http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/14/our-final-playoff-projection/
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: martin on November 14, 2010, 09:31:53 am
I thought I should give the selection committee a hand so here are the Top Ten Reasons the University of Chicago Maroons should be picked for the NCAA playoffs ahead of Salisbury:

10. Maroon and white - classy.  Maroon and gold - gaudy.
9.  Sea gulls??????
8.  No  self-sustaining, nuclear chain reactions currently underway at Stagg Field.
7.  On this 25th anniversary of the Super Bowl Shuffle, shouldn't one Chicago team go to the playoffs?
6.  If you are going to compete for the Stagg Bowl, preference should be given to the school where Amos Alonzo Stagg coached for 40 years.
5.  You don't want to see a lot of bad things start happening in Wicomico County.  No threat.  I'm just saying.
4.  If you're going to be on Wheel of Fortune, Chicago quarterback Marshall Oium could lend you a vowel.
3.  In close calls like this, the school with the most Heisman Trophies gets the nod.
2.  If Salisbury gets in, it will be welcome to Wicomico County Rod and Patti Blagojevich.  This is probably covered under #5 but I like saying "Wicomico."
1.  The Monsters of the Midway. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HScoach on November 14, 2010, 09:15:17 pm
.....sigh.....
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 08, 2011, 12:32:14 am
Pool B in 2012.  Thinking about who might be where.

LaGrange -- gone to the USA South.
Chapman -- gone to the SCIAC.


1) Findlandia -- new
2) Macalester
3) Huntingdon
4) Wesley
5-8) UAA - 4
9-10) SCAC - Trinity and Austin College
11-15) New Conference - Rhodes, Millsaps, Sewanee, BSC, Centre

I think that having 15 Pool B teams only gives 1 bid after the decimal one determines from the Access Ratio is truncated.

Frostburg State -- gone to the E8.
Salisbury -- gone to the E8.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on June 08, 2011, 12:41:06 am
Doesn't the SCAC get a two-year grace period to (ha, ha) get back to seven teams?   Does that apply when you only have two in the interim??
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 08, 2011, 08:16:44 am
Doesn't the SCAC get a two-year grace period to (ha, ha) get back to seven teams?   Does that apply when you only have two in the interim??
I am not sure. They do not have 4 core members playing football.  I cannot recall a similar situation in D-III.

When the Dixie IAC (USA South) sponsored football, they got a Pool A bid in their first year, because an existing conference had 7 full members.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: 02 Warhawk on June 08, 2011, 10:06:14 am
Doesn't the SCAC get a two-year grace period to (ha, ha) get back to seven teams?   Does that apply when you only have two in the interim??

Yes they do, I read that in the article on DIIIfootball.com.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on June 08, 2011, 11:54:21 am
Doesn't the SCAC get a two-year grace period to (ha, ha) get back to seven teams?   Does that apply when you only have two in the interim??

Yes they do, I read that in the article on DIIIfootball.com.
So if 2012 gets here and they haven't added anyone then the winner of the Trinity-Austin game would get the AQ? That would be kind of messed up.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: 02 Warhawk on June 08, 2011, 12:06:01 pm
Doesn't the SCAC get a two-year grace period to (ha, ha) get back to seven teams?   Does that apply when you only have two in the interim??

Yes they do, I read that in the article on DIIIfootball.com.
So if 2012 gets here and they haven't added anyone then the winner of the Trinity-Austin game would get the AQ? That would be kind of messed up.

In 2012 SCAC will have five schools:

Austin
Colorado College (dropped their football program a few years ago)
Southwestern (doesn't have a football program)
Trinity
U of Dallas (Doesn't have a football program)

So I guess the answer will be: Yes. Unless they can convince CC, SW or U of D to get the funding start a football program.

That would be messed up.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Just Bill on June 08, 2011, 01:56:52 pm
Most conferences have a rule, though, that a certain number of schools (usually half of the total membership) need to sponsor a sport for it to be a "conference" sport. For instance, in the WIAC five schools have to play a sport before the WIAC acknowledges it as a WIAC sport and awards a championship in it.

If the SCAC has a similar rule, then football will no longer be an SCAC sponosred sport. Then Austin and Trinity would essentially be independents and would be eligible in Pool B.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on June 08, 2011, 02:05:42 pm
Most conferences have a rule, though, that a certain number of schools (usually half of the total membership) need to sponsor a sport for it to be a "conference" sport. For instance, in the WIAC five schools have to play a sport before the WIAC acknowledges it as a WIAC sport and awards a championship in it.

If the SCAC has a similar rule, then football will no longer be an SCAC sponosred sport. Then Austin and Trinity would essentially be independents and would be eligible in Pool B.
The ASC uses four schools to declare a championship in a sport.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 05, 2011, 11:21:01 am
We are awaiting the publication of the Handbook.  These appear to be the 11 10 schools in Pool B.

UAA-4
Wesley
Huntingdon
LaGrange  (going to the USA South in 2012)
Macalester
Finlandia
DePauw  (going to the NCAC in 2012)
Chapman  (gone to the SCIAC in 2011)

It looks like it is Wesley's to lose.

Thanks to dahlby for the Chapman update.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: dahlby on September 05, 2011, 11:37:04 am
Ralph,
Chapman is officially a member of the SCIAC. This year Chapman is ineligible for the conference championship (a SCIAC, not NCAA) policy. IMHO, this being the case, I think that Chapman will drop to a Pool C. With all due respect.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 05, 2011, 11:44:20 am
Ralph,
Chapman is officially a member of the SCIAC. This year Chapman is ineligible for the conference championship (a SCIAC, not NCAA) policy. IMHO, this being the case, I think that Chapman will drop to a Pool C. With all due respect.
Okay!  I was unclear as to how the NCAA would handle Chapman as I had not seen any of the Handbooks.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on September 05, 2011, 06:08:40 pm
Wesley plays Huntingdon in Dover Nov 12 could big for a bid!!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on September 05, 2011, 10:23:51 pm
Wesley plays Huntingdon in Dover Nov 12 could big for a bid!!
As awesome as that would be, it's way early for us to even dream of that game being for a bid especially with our schedule.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: altor on October 02, 2011, 09:40:06 pm
Handbook posted.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf)

Pool B - 1 "berth"
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Macalester College
Nebraska Wesleyan University*
Carnegie Mellon University
DePauw University**
Huntingdon College
La Grange College
Washington University (Missouri)
Wesley College

*while technically in Pool B, NWU is not really eligible for a bid because they do not play enough in-region games (unless they have received a waiver?).

** I find it funny that DePauw is still in the South Region.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2011, 12:18:24 am
Handbook posted.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf)

Pool B - 1 "berth"
UAA-4
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Carnegie Mellon University
Washington University (Missouri)

Macalester College

Nebraska Wesleyan University*

Wesley College

DePauw University -- NCAC in 2012

Huntingdon College

La Grange College -- USA South in 2012

*while technically in Pool B, NWU is not really eligible for a bid because they do not play enough in-region games (unless they have received a waiver?).

** I find it funny that DePauw is still in the South Region.
7 schools in 2012.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 03, 2011, 02:04:11 am
Plus the SCAC.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2011, 07:38:39 am
Handbook posted.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf)

Pool B - 1 "berth"
UAA-4
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Carnegie Mellon University
Washington University (Missouri)

Macalester College

Nebraska Wesleyan University*

Wesley College

DePauw University -- NCAC in 2012

Huntingdon College

La Grange College -- USA South in 2012

*while technically in Pool B, NWU is not really eligible for a bid because they do not play enough in-region games (unless they have received a waiver?).

** I find it funny that DePauw is still in the South Region.
7 schools in 2012.
Plus the SCAC.
My bad!  Thanks.  Plus 5 more SAA schools and the 2 remaining SCAC schools.   14 schools, 1 Pool B bid.

The SCAC's Pool A bid moves to Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on October 24, 2011, 04:08:29 pm
Pool B - 1 "berth"
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Macalester College
Nebraska Wesleyan University*
Carnegie Mellon University
DePauw University**
Huntingdon College
La Grange College
Washington University (Missouri)
Wesley College

Well, let's rank Pool B from top to bottom, shall we?  Note: This list is ordered by "likelihood of earning the Pool B berth" rather than by "best team" (although the only change I'd make would be flip-flopping #2 and #3).

1. Wesley College (6-1): Traditional powerhouse has not done itself any favors with an early-season loss to Kean.  While they have dominated recently, Wesley has two things working against it: first, a shortage of games against Division III opponents (which will hurt the regional record) and second, they still have two pretty tough games left with a 7-0 Salisbury team that's rolled through a few decent opponents and then closing with #3 on this list.

2. Case Western Reserve University (6-1): It hasn't always been pretty, but CWRU's run of success continues this season.  The UAA does appear pretty balanced, and I would not be AT ALL surprised if one of the schools from #4-6 on this list defeat Case Western in conference play.  However, at the moment, CWRU might well control its own fate; if they should win out, they will be 9-1 and might be a better "on paper" candidate than Wesley (although I think Wesley is the far better team on the field).

3. Huntingdon College (6-2): Unfortunately, the loss to Trinity probably takes Huntingdon's fate out of their hands unless CWRU stumbles.  With that said, if CWRU does stumble, then Huntingdon will play Wesley on 11/12 with a chance to stake their claim to the Pool B berth.

Realistically, those are the only teams with any chance at a Pool B berth.

4. University of Chicago (5-2): I suppose that it is vaguely possible for Chicago to sneak into this mix if they run the table in the UAA (which could happen) AND if Wesley loses to Salisbury and Huntingdon.  I wouldn't count on it, and even if both of those did happen they might not be any better-looking on paper than 8-2 Wesley, Huntingon, CWRU.

5. Carnegie Mellon University (4-3)
6. Washington University (4-3)

Both of the above are out of the Pool B hunt, but obviously could play spoiler vs. CWRU in the coming weeks.

7. Macalester College (3-4)
8. La Grange College (2-5)
9. DePauw University (2-4) - what a fall for the Tigers.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 24, 2011, 08:16:18 pm
Thnx for the analysis XTP

To me even if CWRU wins out (hardly a foregone conclusion); Wesley, if it beats Salisbury and Huntington, has a much superior resume,  And Huntingdon, if it beats Wesley, with the earlier win over Wittenberg does too.  Best Case scenario; Wesley loses to Salisbury but beats Huntingdon.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 24, 2011, 08:23:36 pm
Thnx for the analysis XTP

To me even if CWRU wins out (hardly a foregone conclusion); Wesley, if it beats Salisbury and Huntington, has a much superior resume,  And Huntingdon, if it beats Wesley, with the earlier win over Wittenberg does too.  Best Case scenario; Wesley loses to Salisbury but beats Huntingdon.
I agree!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 24, 2011, 08:57:03 pm
Then you wonder if a 9-1 Case has a chance at a "C".
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on October 24, 2011, 10:10:02 pm
9-1 Case certainly has a chance at a C.  How great a chance depends on how many 9-1 teams don't win their conference
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on October 24, 2011, 10:15:03 pm
Then you wonder if a 9-1 Case has a chance at a "C".

Possibly. But you have to figure there will be enough 9-1 teams to fill out the North and South, making it tough to place Case. Especially with an SOS that places them 159th currently. It becomes a question of who has Case beaten to move them from a failed Pool B bid to a successful Pool C and where do you put them? You really are talking about a team that is claiming this year's John Carroll and upcoming Chicago as signature wins and carrying a loss to a fairly mediocre Rochester team. I think you will find 9-1 teams with better resumes when push comes to shove in the South, North and West.

However, for argument sake we can play with the South Region. If you put Thomas More at say 2 in the South, it could be a nice geographic matchup to Case in at 7. In that case you could see something like UMHB 1 paired with Trinity 8. Wesley at 3 pairs with the USAS at 6, leaving a host of 4-5 options including the ODAC winner, the Centennial winner, another ASC or another SCAC team. The problem is you would kick out either a 9-1 ASC 2 or a 9-1 SCAC 2 for your 9-1 Case team. It also doesn't work if Trinity doesn't win the SCAC, unless Trinity is the SCAC 2. In that case you definitely push Salisbury (assuming they win the E8) and either the ODAC winner or the CC winner to the East and possibly all 3 if you include an ASC 2. I think both the conference 2 teams have better resumes than Case, so I believe the more likely scenario would exclude Case.

If you exclude Case the South would read more along the lines of UMHB - Trinity, Thomas More - ODAC/SCAC (non-trinity), Wesley - ODAC/USAS, ASC (2) - ODAC/USAS/SCAC (non Trinity). That pushes CC winner and Salisbury to the East, pushing UMU back to the North. Alternatively you could keep either the CC or Salisbury in the South and push Wesley to the East and accomplish the same thing. The only long trip would be the ASC 2 game unless you get B-SC as the SCAC 2. You notice other than having a top half of the bracket (1-4) and a bottom have (4-8), I'm not really differentiating the seedings.

In either of these scenarios I'm pushing two teams to the east and also assuming Salisbury wins the E8. You'd have to get real creative and move Thomas More into the North if you want to get around the East problem, as I believe Centre is the only other team that could possibly move that way. Given that the North is usually strong enough to have 2 number 1 quality teams and pushes UMU east, I have a hard time believing you are going to push anyone from out of region into that bracket.

The east seems most likely to adopt a team or two to provide the South another slot or two. That would make sense as Salisbury plays in an "east" conference and Wesley and Johns Hopkins are geographically close to parts of the MAC and NJAC. I know the MAC champion has moved South in the past (2006 at least) to host the ODAC champion, and I know the NJAC has moved south as a Pool C (last year), so it's not a stretch to assume it goes the other way this year as it looks like the East will have a dearth of 9-1 Pool C options. With 6 AQ conferences (excluding the NESCAC), taking 2 South teams is reasonable, especially if one of them is Salisbury which would count as one of the 6 East AQs.

If Salisbury does not win the E8, or Trinity becomes the third team in the SCAC, the variables become... ridiculous. Basically it's very early to play with these permutations, but to answer the original question, even at 9-1 I think Case has too thin a resume and too many seeding problems to become a Pool C bid.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 24, 2011, 10:32:29 pm
I know the MAC champion has moved South in the past (2006 at least) to host the ODAC champion

Sound analysis overall. I can't remember which year it was exactly, but the MAC was in the South Region back when it was 11 teams.

In any case, then and now, because playoff brackets don't "have" to be regionally-centered, only bus-trip based as much as possible, conferences like the CC, MAC and PAC will always have the flexibility to go with more than one region. Same with the Illinois, Wisc. and Minn. schools ... could be north or west.

I know you know this, but just saying ... there are lots of possibilities and one loss could turn a perfectly matched team (say, Thomas More vs. Centre in the South) to one on a geographic island.

Also the bunchup in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest means some teams literally could be placed at half of the available sites.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 24, 2011, 10:35:03 pm
I think Case could slide East if they are 9-1 and Mt. Union stays in the North and Whitewater in the West. Case's SOS could improve when they get to UAA play.

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 24, 2011, 10:38:20 pm
I know the MAC champion has moved South in the past (2006 at least) to host the ODAC champion

Sound analysis overall. I can't remember which year it was exactly, but the MAC was in the South Region back when it was 11 teams.

In any case, then and now, because playoff brackets don't "have" to be regionally-centered, only bus-trip based as much as possible, conferences like the CC, MAC and PAC will always have the flexibility to go with more than one region. Same with the Illinois, Wisc. and Minn. schools ... could be north or west.

I know you know this, but just saying ... there are lots of possibilities and one loss could turn a perfectly matched team (say, Thomas More vs. Centre in the South) to one on a geographic island.

Also the bunchup in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest means some teams literally could be placed at half of the available sites.
Did JHU bus or fly to Thomas More in 2009 for the second round game?

The site for the official NCAA mileage has it 536 miles.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 24, 2011, 11:44:18 pm
Should they be fortunate enough to go 10-0, Trinity won't be the 8 seed in the South.   History has been that Trinity in that situation would play the #2 ASC qualifier while UMHB gets the #8 flown to them.   Those two winners will play in the next round (unless UMHB somehow loses, not likely). 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 25, 2011, 12:43:08 am
Should they be fortunate enough to go 10-0, Trinity won't be the 8 seed in the South.   History has been that Trinity in that situation would play the #2 ASC qualifier while UMHB gets the #8 flown to them.   Those two winners will play in the next round (unless UMHB somehow loses, not likely).

My thought while reading that was that while Trinity probably won't be the 8 seed, they would not be able to avoid a first-round game at UMHB unless there's a second south team within 500 miles that makes it. LC or McMurry are likely but not gimmes ... I could see a 5th-seeded Trinity playing at No. 1 UMHB and us all griping like we do every year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 25, 2011, 08:28:34 am
Guess I'm pretty much assuming McM will win out and get a bid.  The interesting thing will be to see where they are in the regional rankings when those finally come out next week.

If you're a 5, you're usually gonna travel anyway, so should that be the case there won't be as much to whine about  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on October 25, 2011, 08:53:05 am
I'm glad I sparked some conversation! One correction to my own post which I actually noticed last night and fixed in a South Region post, the MAC champion in 2006 (Wilkes) did not move into the South, W&L as the 8th seed was moved to the East to play them.

As for the rest of the comments, I think everyone is more or less right. The very last line of my post acknowledged it was real hard to pin anything down this early and I stand by that. I was just playing with some detailed what-ifs and I'm pleased that it got people thinking. There are so many variables and a few that would immediately shred everything I wrote. In fact, I can think of nothing that would crack my already poor crystal ball worse than Wesley losing to Salisbury or Huntingdon. How could Wesley, with a 4-2 D3 record, possibly be given a playoff spot?

I know we haven't had a Texas Subdivision lately, but I see it happening this year. While Trinity will get credit for going 10-0 I think Centre will get them at the end. Just a guess, but 9-1 Trinity as the SCAC2 may not be 8 seed painful, but it makes too much sense for the NCAA. If they go 10-0 I agree they should avoid UMHB, not sure they absolutely will.

I also don't really think the committee worries too much about making an actual 5-8 ranking. 1-4 are important because it sets up the most likely home field advantage. 5-8 are done more or less for travel consideration unless something truly sticks out.

500 miles is a darn long way and provides so much flexibility, outside the West and Texas, that any team in the vast majority of the D3 universe (Maine through NC west to Michigan and down to Missouri) can go almost anywhere.

Finally, the pool of teams capable of winning the playoffs in D3 is probably no more than 8 teams deep, and that's being generous. So if you are the fourth seed or below (to provide some wiggle room) getting to the playoffs is a good goal, winning one game is a great goal, winning two is an amazing season. Anything else is probably a pipe dream and it doesn't matter if you feel you got screwed in your home/away game, travel distance, and seeding. Congratulations on making the playoffs, you've had a great season, and thanks for filling out the bracket (and this is coming from a W&L grad so I share your disappointment at one of those higher seeds blowing you out of the playoffs the way no team has done to you all year...)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on October 25, 2011, 10:22:01 am
"It becomes a question of who has Case beaten to move them from a failed Pool B bid to a successful Pool C and where do you put them? You really are talking about a team that is claiming this year's John Carroll and upcoming Chicago as signature wins and carrying a loss to a fairly mediocre Rochester team. I think you will find 9-1 teams with better resumes when push comes to shove in the South, North and West."

I agree; I don't think that even a 9-1 CWRU would be worthy of a Pool C bid (assuming that the B goes to Wesley or Huntingdon), although the letter-of-the-law criteria might allow it.  I just can't imagine telling a 9-1 CCIW team, 8-2 UW-Oshkosh, or 8-2 McMurry that they got bumped from the field because a Pool B team looked better on paper...and I think that those are going to be a few of the "last teams in" via Pool C.

As knezek said, CWRU's best wins will be the season-opener over John Carroll and then the UAA teams.  While smedindy is right that the UAA will improve CWRU's SOS rating, I don't think that anyone can realistically argue that Case's resume stacks up to potential 8-2 Pool C teams like UW-Oshkosh or McMurry.

If CWRU were undefeated, I might be singing a different tune; I believe that any undefeated team deserves a shot in the Dance.  But they lost to a very mediocre Rochester team from the Liberty League (which isn't even the best conference in upstate New York).

If CWRU goes 9-1 and somehow gets the official Pool B nod over Wesley/Huntingdon, we may have a stickier situation because of Wesley's very short Division III schedule.  What does one make of that?  They will be 5-1 or 4-2 against D-3 opponents (albeit a schedule with several VERY TOUGH Division III opponents)...what to make of the games vs. NAIA and FCS opponents?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 25, 2011, 01:46:05 pm
In fact, I can think of nothing that would crack my already poor crystal ball worse than Wesley losing to Salisbury or Huntingdon. How could Wesley, with a 4-2 D3 record, possibly be given a playoff spot?

I think the Salisbury beating Wesley angle is a) very possible and b) very underdiscussed in the threads I've read. Wesley, with a loss already to Kean is treading on thin water with its all-over-the-place schedule.

The flipside is Kean, Salisbury and Huntingdon all winning a bunch of games will help their SoS.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 25, 2011, 01:53:49 pm
Dang, you can tread water, or be on thin ice, but I don't think you can tread thin water.

Wesley's fine if it doesn't lose again. Whatever the numbers might say, the committee would have to look the other way if the Wolverines, with their history, win out and have only a close loss in Week 1 to another team in D-III with six wins so far and perhaps a conf. champ/regionally ranked opponent (RRO) or playoff team.

Another loss and Wesley might not have enough in terms of who it has actually beaten. But wins over Salisbury and Huntingdon and a close loss to Kean -- maybe ETBU will even help the OOWP -- would probably make the Wolverines stand up on the criteria.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on October 25, 2011, 02:09:08 pm

I think the Salisbury beating Wesley angle is a) very possible and b) very underdiscussed in the threads I've read. Wesley, with a loss already to Kean is treading on thin water with its all-over-the-place schedule.


That's because it is hard to imagine a playoffs without Wesley. They have been 6 straight times and semi-finalists the last two years and 4 of the last 6. Even with a loss to Salisbury I think most people would believe they are at least a top 15 team on the field, even if you don't rank them that way based on 2 losses. Beating Salisbury and losing to Huntingdon would seem a strange combination to me, as I believe Salisbury is a better team. Losing to both and being 3-3 in D3 and I can't imagine how you could include Wesley in the field, though I don't rate that as a high possibility.

However, if 4-2 in D3 happens, the committee is going to have to look into secondary criteria to justify putting them in the field. How would the committee treat the loss to Kean? I see on Wesley's D3football.com page that all their D3 games are starred as In-Region, but clearly Kean (East) and ETBU (South) are different regions. Does in/out of region matter to an independent?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 25, 2011, 02:46:26 pm
I think the committee has told everybody quite clearly that if you want in, win your games.  8-2 with losses to good teams is by no means an obvious choice over a 9-1 team against a lesser schedule.  If I'm Wesley, I sure as heck don't want to be 8-2 and have to wonder about whether or not the committee cares about how poor CWRU's schedule has been...because, if the past is any indication, they don't. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 25, 2011, 07:12:26 pm
Quote
However, if 4-2 in D3 happens, the committee is going to have to look into secondary criteria to justify putting them in the field. How would the committee treat the loss to Kean? I see on Wesley's D3football.com page that all their D3 games are starred as In-Region, but clearly Kean (East) and ETBU (South) are different regions. Does in/out of region matter to an independent?

As of a couple years ago, the definition of in-region games changed. Wesley is a South Region team, so ETBU is an in-region game. Also anyone within 200 miles of you is in-region, so Kean counts too, etc.

As far as a two-loss team being taken over a one-loss team, it can happen. But the circumstances would have to be pretty compelling for the committee to do it, moreso than they would have to be for the top 25 to flip such teams. With two losses, the best bet is to hope your competition also has major flaws, whether we mean Pool B or C.

Subjectively, not sure anyone outside of the immediate CWRU circle, would have gripes with 8-2 Wesley getting in over 9-1 Case, given the schedules they play.

But first Wesley has to get to 8-2.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on October 25, 2011, 09:45:00 pm

As of a couple years ago, the definition of in-region games changed. Wesley is a South Region team, so ETBU is an in-region game. Also anyone within 200 miles of you is in-region, so Kean counts too, etc.


Perfect. This is exactly the information I was missing. Thanks for all the responses today! The intricacies of this stuff are incredible. All the arguments that surround it make me very happy that W&L plays in an AQ conference and only has one simple task... win the ODAC and go to the dance. Everything else is just a cr@pshoot....

And yes, we only got on this Wesley hypothetical because I think it is the biggest possible flaw in my (very early) South predictions. Personally I think Wesley beats Salisbury at home, see my ODAC pick-em, but I do believe it will be a close game!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 08, 2011, 07:47:25 pm
last week of the season and not much pool b discussion.  does anyone think there is any chance that cwru gets chosen for the pool b if wesley beats huntingdon this weekend?  if so, does wesley have a strong enough case for a pool c?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 08, 2011, 08:12:01 pm
I think Wesley is the "B" if they win. CWRU gets moved to "C"
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on November 08, 2011, 08:23:52 pm
Just my thought, but if Wesley wins, and I don't really think they won't, they will get in. It won't matter if they are a B or a C, they will be in. Personally I think they go in as the no-brainer B and Case will be left to fight it out with the C's. Both teams have 1 D3 loss, but Wesley's loss is to a better team, and they carry a lot of history. A Wesley loss, however, and I'm thinking they stay home. With 2 losses I think Case (provided they win) gets the B and two losses in an abbreviated D3 schedule is going to look awful when put up against the rest of the 1 loss D3 teams in Pool C. I think Wesley's playoffs started way earlier than any other team this year. Certainly as far back as the Salisbury game and possibly every D3 game after the loss to Kean.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on November 09, 2011, 07:44:53 am
I second jknezek's thoughts.

If Wesley wins, they should get the B (despite the short Division III schedule) via by virute of having some wins vs. regionally-ranked opponents.

If Wesley loses, I think they're out of the playoffs for the reasons knezek outlined.

If CWRU and Wesley BOTH lose this weekend (a remote possibility, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely; the CMU-CWRU game is a conference rivalry game, and CMU has played just well enough this year for that to be a possibility), things will get a little interesting.  I'd be inclined to think that Wesley gets the bid because their losses would have come against MUCH better team's than CWRU's losses, and they still would have the Salisbury win to hang their hat on.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 09, 2011, 09:28:10 am
If Wesley and CWRU both lose, Huntingdon will get thrown into the mix by nature of their wins against Wesley and Wittenberg.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on November 09, 2011, 09:31:28 am
If Wesley and CWRU both lose, Huntingdon will get thrown into the mix by nature of their wins against Wesley and Wittenberg.

Good point!  I'd forgotten that Huntingdon themselves will be a Pool B candidate if they can upset Wesley.  If it comes to 9-1 CWRU, 8-2 Huntingdon, 8-2 Wesley, one could easily argue that Huntingdon has the strongest case (in addition to the wins over Wesley & Wittenberg, they would also have a win over regionally-ranked ODAC champ Hampden-Sydney).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2011, 01:40:05 pm
If Wesley and CWRU both lose, Huntingdon will get thrown into the mix by nature of their wins against Wesley and Wittenberg.

Good point!  I'd forgotten that Huntingdon themselves will be a Pool B candidate if they can upset Wesley.  If it comes to 9-1 CWRU, 8-2 Huntingdon, 8-2 Wesley, one could easily argue that Huntingdon has the strongest case (in addition to the wins over Wesley & Wittenberg, they would also have a win over regionally-ranked ODAC champ Hampden-Sydney).
And a "result" versus Trinity. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 09, 2011, 03:20:53 pm
New regional rankings:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2011/11/09/second-ncaa-regional-rankings-2/
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 09, 2011, 09:26:04 pm
I second almost everything on this page.

Wesley in with win.

Wesley loss/Huntingdon win: If Case wins, they're the B, Huntingdon might be the best two-loss team in C.

Any Case loss they are out, definitely as the B to the Hunt/Wes winner, and probably wouldn't grade very well as the C against other two-loss teams.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ADL70 on November 10, 2011, 07:46:13 am
I second almost everything on this page.

Wesley in with win.

Wesley loss/Huntingdon win: If Case wins, they're the B, Huntingdon might be the best two-loss team in C.

Any Case loss they are out, definitely as the B to the Hunt/Wes winner, and probably wouldn't grade very well as the C against other two-loss teams.

If Huntingdon wins wouldn't they have wins against three regionally ranked teams and a loss to a fourth (Trinity).  Couldn't the committee decide to give greater weight to those results over CWRU's in-region record?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 10, 2011, 09:20:59 am
I think if Huntingdon upsets Wesley they may be in the "B" catbird seat. They've played a heck of a schedule and their record and results against regionally ranked teams may overcome a CWRU 9-0 regional record.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 10, 2011, 09:33:24 am
I think if Huntingdon upsets Wesley they may be in the "B" catbird seat. They've played a heck of a schedule and their record and results against regionally ranked teams may overcome a CWRU 9-0 regional record.

#1 in SOS by a huge margin (moreso after Saturday) should count for something if they go 3-1 against RROs.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 10, 2011, 10:48:12 am
I like Huntingdon's "results" versus regionally ranked teams. I think that is why I believe that they deserve the Pool B with a win over Wesley.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: thewaterboy on November 10, 2011, 11:44:00 am
Huntingdon needs to win first. And they are going up against a very motivated and driven Wesley College Football team. If you have seen what I have, you would know. IMO, I dont think Wesley is at all the same team as the one that lost to Kean. Huntingdon may be in contention for a pool B bid. But i believe that Wesley is the clear front-runner for it.

Looking through Wesley blue glasses though  8-) we will see this Saturday!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 10, 2011, 12:11:08 pm
Of course Wesley is the front-runner. But any team that beat Hampden -Sydney and throttled Wittenberg (who knew they had to win to have any playoff chance if they didn't win the NCAC) can play with most everyone in D3.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 10, 2011, 07:37:57 pm
Even if Huntingdon loses to Wesley IMHO they still be better than a few one loss teams though I know that they don't get a bid. Their other loss being to a good Birmingham Southern team on the road should get them on the board with a win over Wesley
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on November 10, 2011, 08:51:43 pm
Even if Huntingdon loses to Wesley IMHO they still be better than a few one loss teams though I know that they don't get a bid. Their other loss being to a good Birmingham Southern team on the road should get them on the board with a win over Wesley

Huntingdon has a loss to Trinity as well. So they are already a 2 loss team.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 10, 2011, 09:11:30 pm
Even if Huntingdon loses to Wesley IMHO they still be better than a few one loss teams though I know that they don't get a bid. Their other loss being to a good Birmingham Southern team on the road should get them on the board with a win over Wesley

Huntingdon has a loss to Trinity as well. So they are already a 2 loss team.
  I understand that jnkezek I shoudl have said that even with 3 losses with a Wesley win
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 10, 2011, 09:38:59 pm
Same could be said about half of the WAC, OAC, ASC, and CCIW. The mid-pack teams are better than most teams in any other conference.

Still you gotta win to make the 'show' as it were.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 10, 2011, 10:17:18 pm
AGREED
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 10, 2011, 11:40:08 pm
do not think that it will matter come saturday.  wesley will do what they need to do and win the game.  i doubt that trinity's d is any better than wesley's and huntingdon only scored 7.  the kean game was a total fluke but it still happened and that plays against wesley overall.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 10, 2011, 11:46:19 pm
I watched the Wittenberg / Huntingdon game on a video stream. Huntingdon can hit hard on both sides of the ball. Expect a war.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 10, 2011, 11:48:44 pm
smedindy, i doubt that the hitting they bring will be anything more than wesley brings.  in the end wesley is better and they will show that saturday.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 11, 2011, 09:34:24 am
If they are better, we will see for sure.

In Massey Wesley is 7th and Huntingdon is 42nd. But I don't think it's a time to be over-confident.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SUADC on November 11, 2011, 12:09:49 pm
I was able to watch both Wesley and Huntingdon play this season against quality opponenets. I watch the Wesley vs. Salisbury game and the Huntingdon vs. Trinity game. As far as Wesley is concerned, they have great talent on both sides of the ball, I've believe that the physical play of Wesley is totally different than the physical play of Huntingdon. Moreover, in the game between Trinity (TX) and Huntingdon, Huntingdon played physical but came up short on many occasions on the offensive side. Huntingdon was unable to convert on third & fourth downs. Also, with the Trinity QB creating time and second chances with his legs, this became very troublesome for Huntingdon and I think the QB at Wesley is is going to do this and even more. On the otherside, Wesley has struggled secondary wise, but over the past couple weeks have improved tremendously. Still, going to be a good game and can't wait to watch.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSCTiger74 on November 11, 2011, 07:52:56 pm
If they are better, we will see for sure.

In Massey Wesley is 7th and Huntingdon is 42nd. But I don't think it's a time to be over-confident.

You've apparently never read any of Wesleydad's other posts.  :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 11, 2011, 10:56:07 pm
hsc, apparently you have not read any of my other posts either.  i have ripped wesley as much or more than anyone on this site.  overconfident, no, they are better, but will they do what they have to do to win?  i think yes, and then i hope some odac team shows up in the first round of the playoffs, then i may be overconfident.  ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSCTiger74 on November 12, 2011, 12:36:15 am
hsc, apparently you have not read any of my other posts either.  i have ripped wesley as much or more than anyone on this site.  overconfident, no, they are better, but will they do what they have to do to win?  i think yes, and then i hope some odac team shows up in the first round of the playoffs, then i may be overconfident.  ;D

I believe I've read most of your posts since I have been hanging around these boards, and I think that this one pretty much proves my point, which was actually intended to be tongue-in-cheek. You have indeed critiqued Wesley's performances several times, but I have yet to see you concede that any team could be better (except UWW or Mount, who are obviously better than everybody). Maybe I should have just corrected smedindy and told him that the word he was looking for wasn't "overconfident" but rather "arrogant". But hey, that's just me.  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 12, 2011, 07:19:30 am
hsc, not sure how thinking wesley is the better team is arrogant, but if that is what you go with fine.  i have respect for hampden and if they end up in dover next week i would expect a good game.  if huntingdon proves me wrong today i am sure you will let me know, but i will certainly be able to admit that i was wrong.  some people try to avoid posting comments that others may not like, i am not one of them.  wesley has proven over the last 6 years that not many teams are better than them with the exception of mount and uww.  yes, i was going for the tongue in cheek, but sometimes that is even missed.  good luck today in your game.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 12, 2011, 06:42:21 pm
Well, Wesley definitely proved they were better!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Hawks88 on November 12, 2011, 07:08:08 pm
Well, Wesley definitely proved they were better!
Definitely, didn't leave any doubt about it either.  :(
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 12, 2011, 07:12:34 pm
congrats to huntingdon for scheduling wesley the past 2 years.  only will help the program get better.  good luck next year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSCTiger74 on November 12, 2011, 07:31:06 pm
Good win for your guys today, Wesleydad. Unfortunately things didn't go so well for my Tigers, so I suspect you will be seeing them next week in Dover when they show up for their appointed beatdown. Unless they get sent to Belton, which could be even worse.
In either case, when you're right you're right, and you were right.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 12, 2011, 07:43:20 pm
hsc, i am not sure if hampden gets sent to either place.  if they get seeded 8th they could end up in dc to play hopkins since they will likely be the 2 seed.  there seem to be 5 schools in the south south bracket so one of them may get sent north, thomas moore fits that scenario, or at least i think they do.  saw the box score for your game, do they play any defense, 500+ yards is a lot to give up.  if they play hopkins it might be a long game time wise since hopkins likes to throw the ball all over the field too.  clock may be stopping a lot.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSCTiger74 on November 12, 2011, 07:54:43 pm
hsc, i am not sure if hampden gets sent to either place.  if they get seeded 8th they could end up in dc to play hopkins since they will likely be the 2 seed.  there seem to be 5 schools in the south south bracket so one of them may get sent north, thomas moore fits that scenario, or at least i think they do.  saw the box score for your game, do they play any defense, 500+ yards is a lot to give up.  if they play hopkins it might be a long game time wise since hopkins likes to throw the ball all over the field too.  clock may be stopping a lot.

None that I've been able to see, and this has been one of my biggest complaints for a while. What some H-SC folks call Martyball seems to focus on the idea that "it doesn't matter how many points they score as long as we score more". Unfortunately that turns out badly if the opposition decides to play serious defense themselves. I think they're looking at another one and done no matter where they get sent.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 12, 2011, 09:44:32 pm
Good win for your guys today, Wesleydad. Unfortunately things didn't go so well for my Tigers, so I suspect you will be seeing them next week in Dover when they show up for their appointed beatdown. Unless they get sent to Belton, which could be even worse.
In either case, when you're right you're right, and you were right.

No, actually better.  Much better barbecue and Tex-Mex in Belton than Dover.

Besides, bring your golf clubs...should be much better weather for golf in Texas.  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on November 12, 2011, 10:48:05 pm
Good win for your guys today, Wesleydad. Unfortunately things didn't go so well for my Tigers, so I suspect you will be seeing them next week in Dover when they show up for their appointed beatdown. Unless they get sent to Belton, which could be even worse.
In either case, when you're right you're right, and you were right.

No, actually better.  Much better barbecue and Tex-Mex in Belton than Dover.

Besides, bring your golf clubs...should be much better weather for golf in Texas.  ;)

Have to say "Where Pigs Fly is" is pretty good in Dover since I hear Harold's in Abliene is no longer with us. The Tex-Mex in the UMHB pressbox is unmatched however.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 15, 2011, 12:22:53 am
Good win for your guys today, Wesleydad. Unfortunately things didn't go so well for my Tigers, so I suspect you will be seeing them next week in Dover when they show up for their appointed beatdown. Unless they get sent to Belton, which could be even worse.
In either case, when you're right you're right, and you were right.

What? They went great!

Now you can go into the postseason humbled and inspired! Hold it down for the ODAC!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: HSCTiger74 on November 15, 2011, 12:38:07 am
Good win for your guys today, Wesleydad. Unfortunately things didn't go so well for my Tigers, so I suspect you will be seeing them next week in Dover when they show up for their appointed beatdown. Unless they get sent to Belton, which could be even worse.
In either case, when you're right you're right, and you were right.

What? They went great!

Now you can go into the postseason humbled and inspired! Hold it down for the ODAC!

Just one more example of the truism that the winners write the histories.   :)
I suppose there's an outside chance they can "hold it down" at Centre, but I wouldn't bet on them with someone else's money if they get to Alliance. Even blind loyalty has to give way to reality on occasion.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 15, 2011, 01:29:53 am
Good win for your guys today, Wesleydad. Unfortunately things didn't go so well for my Tigers, so I suspect you will be seeing them next week in Dover when they show up for their appointed beatdown. Unless they get sent to Belton, which could be even worse.
In either case, when you're right you're right, and you were right.

What? They went great!

Now you can go into the postseason humbled and inspired! Hold it down for the ODAC!

Just one more example of the truism that the winners write the histories.   :)
I suppose there's an outside chance they can "hold it down" at Centre, but I wouldn't bet on them with someone else's money if they get to Alliance. Even blind loyalty has to give way to reality on occasion.

The NCAA strictly frowns upon talk of betting, but those would have to be some pretty sweet odds for me to take H-SC at UMU too. Even at 100-1 you're probably just wasting a dollar, right?

I think winning at Centre and playing Mount Union would be great. And UMU might be weakened this year but they're still stout on D.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 15, 2011, 07:42:10 am
Hey, Keith!  Centre has just as good a chance of going to UMU and getting pounded, c'mon!!    ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on November 15, 2011, 09:43:40 am
Hey, Keith!  Centre has just as good a chance of going to UMU and getting pounded, c'mon!!    ;)

As someone who has seen both teams against a common opponent, W&L, I would say Centre has a better chance. Two of H-SC's last three have not been good games, the first half against W&L is the big exception. Also, H-SC has had 3 flat out bad games this year, Huntingdon, Guilford and R-MC. The common denominator? They were 3 of H-SC's 4 road games.

That being said, H-SC is a capable team. They can play with anyone in the 12-240 rankings if they choose to. The QB is excellent, the line play is good, the defense is... variable. I feel the same about Centre and with many of the same attributes. I see this as a battle of like versus like and I'm looking forward to it. Playing at home gives Centre the edge, but this is a winnable game by either team in my mind.

I wouldn't give either team a snowball's chance in the tropics against UMU, but it does snow on the mountains of Hawaii...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 15, 2011, 09:09:01 pm
Hey, Keith!  Centre has just as good a chance of going to UMU and getting pounded, c'mon!!    ;)

I agree, I just happened to not be talking to a person from Centre right then so their chances seemed irrelevant to the conversation.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 15, 2011, 09:12:51 pm
Hey, Keith!  Centre has just as good a chance of going to UMU and getting pounded, c'mon!!    ;)

As someone who has seen both teams against a common opponent, W&L, I would say Centre has a better chance. Two of H-SC's last three have not been good games, the first half against W&L is the big exception. Also, H-SC has had 3 flat out bad games this year, Huntingdon, Guilford and R-MC. The common denominator? They were 3 of H-SC's 4 road games.

That being said, H-SC is a capable team. They can play with anyone in the 12-240 rankings if they choose to. The QB is excellent, the line play is good, the defense is... variable. I feel the same about Centre and with many of the same attributes. I see this as a battle of like versus like and I'm looking forward to it. Playing at home gives Centre the edge, but this is a winnable game by either team in my mind.

I wouldn't give either team a snowball's chance in the tropics against UMU, but it does snow on the mountains of Hawaii...

I saw H-SC play in what I have to believe was not their best game of the year, but they can move the ball. The D is statistically the worst in the playoffs (200th yardage, 149th scoring) which can't bode well.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 19, 2011, 04:28:19 pm
Pool B Wesley wins in the first round over Hobart, 35-28.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 19, 2011, 07:07:01 pm
That was a closer result than many thought.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Upstate on November 19, 2011, 07:39:16 pm
That was a closer result than many thought.

Especially since Hobart was w/o their #1 QB and WR...

Great game from them today...

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 19, 2011, 09:34:20 pm
Considering the longest TD drive  for Hobart was 17 yrds!!! Wesley's D did very well for itself
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Upstate on November 19, 2011, 10:21:21 pm
Considering the longest TD drive  for Hobart was 17 yrds!!! Wesley's D did very well for itself

Might want to check the box score regarding that TD stat...

Also, those 3 60+ yard drives that stalled at Wesley's 7, 5 & 5 yard lines were inconsequential...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 20, 2011, 12:41:45 am
4 plays 12 yrds
2 plays 16 yrds
blocked punt for a td
8 plays 32 yrds

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 20, 2011, 08:37:04 am
upstate, inconsequential in that they did not score.  pa was not exactly correct in the numbers but the point was that hobart did not go far when they scored.  60 yards of total offense for scoring drives is a fact.  nice drives that result in no points are just like turnovers, dont help you win games.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 20, 2011, 10:20:17 am
Actually, they can help in playing a ball-control, field-position game.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Upstate on November 20, 2011, 01:07:58 pm
upstate, inconsequential in that they did not score.  pa was not exactly correct in the numbers but the point was that hobart did not go far when they scored.  60 yards of total offense for scoring drives is a fact.  nice drives that result in no points are just like turnovers, dont help you win games.

You were acting like Hobart couldn't move the ball at all...

The fact they constantly had short fields doesn't do well to reflect their total yardage but those 3 long drives that didn't end in points prove they could move the ball...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 20, 2011, 02:51:43 pm
Upstate

 I think Hobart showed very well for themselves.  The game flow was so messed up by the officials that its seemed liked Wesleys D was on the field all day. I was surprised in the time advantage  to Wesley. Hobarts game plan was well thought out and playing 6 and 7 O linemen to slow Wesleys D seemd to work as Olney had time to get some open receivers.

 I am still a bit puzzled as to why they would try a fake punt so deep  so early in the game! As it turned out it didn't kill them BUT !!! ;D
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 20, 2011, 04:07:26 pm
pa, i dont think it was a fake punt, it would likely have been blocked had he tried to kick it, it was right in front of me and he pulled it down as 2 wesley players were flying at him.

upstate, not sure who implied that they could not move the ball.  i only read it as the scoring drives were short fields.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: PA_wesleyfan on November 20, 2011, 06:46:03 pm
wesleydad
 He pulled the ball in right away, I think hw was waiting for one of his 4 wideouts and the rush got there before he had a chance to throw it. Would like to see the film and see what the outside guys were doing
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 20, 2011, 08:20:57 pm
pa, looked to me like he just panicked.  if it was a planned fake than it was a real bad call and they got lucky that wesley fumbled on the next play.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: pumkinattack on November 21, 2011, 11:00:22 am
It wasn't a planned fake punt, I can confirm.  He's a FR WR (Elvin Souffrant - caught a couple of passes and looks like a keeper for the next three years) who only punted 2-3x all year and our #1 punter (who was our #3 WR) was out of the game with a bum ankle.

We were really banged up on O, but the real story of the game, IMO from Bart's perspective, is that as well as Cragg & Co prepared them for the game being shorthanded, didn't put our one excellent DB, Drake Woodard (#1 for those at the game & 4yr starter, very decorated for all 4 years) on to Wesley's stud WR (Steve something) until the 2nd half.  The three biggest outputs against our D all year (Union, RPI & Wesley) we're a result of the non-Woodard secondary getting beat on big plays.  They've generally played all year and had some good games (Hearon, for example, had 2 ints - one a TAINT) against UofR, but they're all FR or SO and had been somewhat inconsistent throughout the year (RPI's QB scrambled enough that their guys would get open for big plays in that loss).  Beyond all the other things that have been put out there, I thought it was telling that the big plays stopped for the most part when #1 got put on that WR from Wesley in the second half.  He was good enough (talent as it's been put by one or two of the Wesley guys) to stand toe to toe with the Wesley WR's, but I'm not sure if the rest of the secondary was ready for that. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 21, 2011, 09:14:48 pm
For whatever it's worth, the Wesley coaching staff seemed very impressed with Hobart and disgusted with its own play. Not sure of how much of what was said to me was for attribution, but I'm inclined to believe the final score was not a fluke, and my final top 25 ballot (especially given that a team Hobart smushed also won) will probably reflect as much.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: pumkinattack on November 21, 2011, 09:21:51 pm
KMack with the love.  I'd love to see Bart back in the top 25 at season end, though I don't expect it.  Doesn't matter, everyone I know who follows the program is extremely psyched with the fight they showed and how they left it all out on the field.  While I'd love to make a trip to Salem to see my boys play, all I can ask for is that they go balls to the wall and leave nothing in the tank. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 21, 2011, 10:58:04 pm
maybe hobart would like to add another game.  i am sure wesley could find an open date. :D  always glad to add another good game to the schedule.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: pumkinattack on November 22, 2011, 07:53:47 am
I've never been opposed assuming the economics made sense for the institution (which information I didn't have and objected to character attacks from some based on incomplete information).  That being said, we're back to a 10 game slate next year (Springfield jumps from the E8 to LL, OOC is Dickinson, Utica & Geneva College).  I'd like to see some different matchups, other than Dickinson in OOC, but it appears there's a real effort to be in Pittsburg and upstate NY for two of the games given the last 6-10 years (CMU, Fisher, Alfred, etc.).  Not sure why they don't head towards the Philly area, but they hit that area pretty well for lacrosse, so perhaps they figure they've got the east coast covered from that sport.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wesleydad on November 22, 2011, 09:25:58 am
looks like a nice and makes sense schedule.  just would like to see wesley be able to pick up some good D3 games and after watching this weekend, Hobart would certainly qualify in my opinion.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on December 13, 2011, 12:10:00 pm
Thanks to Just Bill for the link (http://bearsports.wustl.edu/Sports/Content/Pages/fb12-13-11.aspx)...


UAA members affiliate with other conferences...

Quote
...
The affiliate membership begins in the fall of 2015  (italics added) and includes all the rights and privileges provided to other football participating institutions in the SAA.
...

While Washington University and Chicago will affiliate their football programs with the SAA fellow University Athletic Association (UAA) members, Case Western Reserve University and Carnegie Mellon University will become affiliate members of the President Athletic Conference (PAC).

With this affiliation, the SAA will have its Pool A bid by then, and it takes pressure off Oglethorpe and Hendrix to add football!

The status of the other "orphans" (Huntingdon which was left behind in the dissolution of the GSAC, plus Trinity and Austin College from the SCAC) is still undetermined.
Pool B is going away!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SUADC on December 13, 2011, 12:13:26 pm
Thanks to Just Bill for the link (http://bearsports.wustl.edu/Sports/Content/Pages/fb12-13-11.aspx)...


UAA members affiliate with other conferences...

Quote
...
The affiliate membership begins in the fall of 2015  (italics added) and includes all the rights and privileges provided to other football participating institutions in the SAA.
...

While Washington University and Chicago will affiliate their football programs with the SAA fellow University Athletic Association (UAA) members, Case Western Reserve University and Carnegie Mellon University will become affiliate members of the President Athletic Conference (PAC).

With this affiliation, the SAA will have its Pool A bid by then, and it takes pressure off Oglethorpe and Hendrix to add football!

The status of the other "orphans" (Huntingdon which was left behind in the dissolution of the GSAC, plus Trinity and Austin College from the SCAC) is still undetermined.
Pool B is going away!


Agree, 100% with your post. I just hoping the other Pool B teams can find a home. However, with UAA teams joining conferences, I can see in the near future that othe Pool B candidates will be fighting hard to join conferences now.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on December 13, 2011, 12:16:35 pm
Thanks to Just Bill for the link (http://bearsports.wustl.edu/Sports/Content/Pages/fb12-13-11.aspx)...


UAA members affiliate with other conferences...

Quote
...
The affiliate membership begins in the fall of 2015  (italics added) and includes all the rights and privileges provided to other football participating institutions in the SAA.
...

While Washington University and Chicago will affiliate their football programs with the SAA fellow University Athletic Association (UAA) members, Case Western Reserve University and Carnegie Mellon University will become affiliate members of the President Athletic Conference (PAC).

With this affiliation, the SAA will have its Pool A bid by then, and it takes pressure off Oglethorpe and Hendrix to add football!

The status of the other "orphans" (Huntingdon which was left behind in the dissolution of the GSAC, plus Trinity and Austin College from the SCAC) is still undetermined.
Pool B is going away!

Wow!!! I had no idea that the UAA schools had this in the works.

Makes sense from pretty much all sides.  The UAA schools will continue to play each other in nonconference games, and now they'll have access to an AQ in their respective conferences.

Re: CMU, I know that they used to play in the PAC (before I was there...mostly before I was born, actually), but we did play several PAC schools in nonconference games.  It makes a lot of sense from a geographic and from a competitive standpoint.

I don't think Pool B "going away" is really a big deal.  Basically, you can just dump those teams into what currently constitutes Pool C.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on December 13, 2011, 12:44:22 pm
So what will the SCAC do now? Where does Wesley go?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on December 13, 2011, 01:00:18 pm
Thanks to Just Bill for the link (http://bearsports.wustl.edu/Sports/Content/Pages/fb12-13-11.aspx)...


UAA members affiliate with other conferences...

Quote
...
The affiliate membership begins in the fall of 2015  (italics added) and includes all the rights and privileges provided to other football participating institutions in the SAA.
...

While Washington University and Chicago will affiliate their football programs with the SAA fellow University Athletic Association (UAA) members, Case Western Reserve University and Carnegie Mellon University will become affiliate members of the President Athletic Conference (PAC).

With this affiliation, the SAA will have its Pool A bid by then, and it takes pressure off Oglethorpe and Hendrix to add football!

The status of the other "orphans" (Huntingdon which was left behind in the dissolution of the GSAC, plus Trinity and Austin College from the SCAC) is still undetermined.
Pool B is going away!

And Southwestern.

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2011/12/uaa-teams-split-into-conferences
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SUADC on December 30, 2011, 10:34:30 am
I was bored at work. So I decided to come up with a solution to Wesley and Huntingdon possibly joining a conference. I think this could go into effect after this upcoming season. I know there are many factors and issues with conference alignment and the sorts. But, like I said I was bored so this is what I have to say.

I think the USA South Conference should invite both Wesley and Huntingdon into the conference, as well as invite Salisbury*, Frostburg*, and Newport News Apprentice** to join the confernce and split it into two divisions.

USA South (N)                          USA South (S)
Wesley                                             NC Wesleyan
Salisbury*                                         Huntingdon
CNU                                                 Maryville (Tenn.)
Ferrum                                              Averett
Frostburg State*                                LaGrange
Shenandoah***                                 Methodist
Newport News Apprentice**                 Greensboro 




*Subject to Empire 8 Contract
**Not considered NCAA institution
***Leaving for the ODAC
 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on December 30, 2011, 11:23:40 am
Shenandoah is a member of the ODAC in all sports starting next year. They have wanted to be in the ODAC for years and you can bet they won't be going anywhere. The ODAC might be willing to release Catholic, who is an associate member for football only, although I think the ODAC is pretty happy having 8 teams for football for scheduling purposes going forward.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on February 16, 2012, 07:58:46 pm
Working draft...

Pool B in 2013.

MASCAC -       9    --Bridgewater State, Fitchburg State, Framingham State, Massachusetts Maritime, Westfield State and Worcester State; affiliate member institutions Plymouth State, Mass-Dartmouth and Western Connecticu
SAA                6    -- Berry, Birmingham-Southern, Centre, Millsaps, Rhodes, Sewanee
SCAC              4    --  Austin College, Southwestern, Texas Lutheran, Trinity
Independents   5   -- Huntingdon, Finlandia, Macalester, Presentation, Wesley
UAA                4   --  Chicago, CMU, CWRU, WashSTL

Any others?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on February 16, 2012, 11:45:32 pm
We may not have Finlandia. They seem to be having trouble. Definitely not taking the field this year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on February 17, 2012, 01:47:24 pm
Working draft...

Pool B in 2013.

MASCAC -       9    --Bridgewater State, Fitchburg State, Framingham State, Massachusetts Maritime, Westfield State and Worcester State; affiliate member institutions Plymouth State, Mass-Dartmouth and Western Connecticu
SAA                6    -- Berry, Birmingham-Southern, Centre, Millsaps, Rhodes, Sewanee
SCAC              4    --  Austin College, Southwestern, Texas Lutheran, Trinity
Independents   5   -- Huntingdon, Finlandia, Macalester, Presentation, Wesley
UAA                4   --  Chicago, CMU, CWRU, WashSTL

Any others?

If this ends up right thats 29 teams. That's gonna be at least 2 bids. Probably 3 because I doubt the Pool A access ratio will be above 9.67.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on February 23, 2012, 09:27:53 pm
Working draft...

Pool B in 2013.

MASCAC -       9    --Bridgewater State, Fitchburg State, Framingham State, Massachusetts Maritime, Westfield State and Worcester State; affiliate member institutions Plymouth State, Mass-Dartmouth and Western Connecticu
SAA                6    -- Berry, Birmingham-Southern, Centre, Millsaps, Rhodes, Sewanee
SCAC              4    --  Austin College, Southwestern, Texas Lutheran, Trinity
Independents   5   -- Huntingdon, Finlandia, Macalester, Presentation, Wesley
UAA                4   --  Chicago, CMU, CWRU, WashSTL

Any others?

If this ends up right thats 29 teams. That's gonna be at least 2 bids. Probably 3 because I doubt the Pool A access ratio will be above 9.67.
I count 28 with Finlandia.  That would be 9.33. I think that that is 3 bids
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on February 24, 2012, 10:22:51 am
Fair or not, in 2013, it'll be win your league (or finish with one loss in the OAC or WIAC) or go home.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on February 24, 2012, 11:35:25 am
Add one more SAA school - Hendrix says they're starting in 2013. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on February 25, 2012, 09:54:34 am
Add one more SAA school - Hendrix says they're starting in 2013.
http://www.hendrix.edu/athletics/content.aspx?id=56679

I am not doubting you...
I just wanted to see for myself!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on February 25, 2012, 11:50:14 am
Add one more SAA school - Hendrix says they're starting in 2013.
http://www.hendrix.edu/athletics/content.aspx?id=56679

I am not doubting you...
I just wanted to see for myself!

Don't blame you given the history ... but they did put football back into their listing of sports after taking it out a couple of years ago.  ;)  See also this link:  http://www.hendrix.edu/athletics/content.aspx?id=58378

You would think they need to name a coach pretty soon if they're going to start in '13 ... tho I guess it's probably too late to recruit kids who are starting next fall, at least they could start practicing and get kids in the weight room with the '12-'13 school year. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on September 15, 2012, 08:14:40 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 15, 2012, 10:23:10 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.
B-SC continuing to impress.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on September 15, 2012, 10:30:30 pm
B-SC has both Wesley and Trinity on their schedule. They're going to get a chance to win that B outright having already taken down Huntingdon. Whether they can do it is another story. Since its in town I might be at the B-SC Trinity game depending on how things shake out even though I don't have a dog in the fight. Might just be a good chance to see good D3 football close to home.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hazzben on September 15, 2012, 10:41:22 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.

Seriously. The perceived depth of Pool B this year looked like it'd have serious Pool C ramifications. Guess it still might, but it doesn't look quite as likely after today.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 15, 2012, 10:57:42 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.

Seriously. The perceived depth of Pool B this year looked like it'd have serious Pool C ramifications. Guess it still might, but it doesn't look quite as likely after today.
IMHO, Wesley's loss is not that bad. I think that UMHB is #2 in the country only because they have not beaten UMU in 8 years.   ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hazzben on September 15, 2012, 11:07:15 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.

Seriously. The perceived depth of Pool B this year looked like it'd have serious Pool C ramifications. Guess it still might, but it doesn't look quite as likely after today.
IMHO, Wesley's loss is not that bad. I think that UMHB is #2 in the country only because they have not beaten UMU in 8 years.   ;)

Agreed. UMHB is legit. I've had them ranked #3 all year. #2 after UWW's rough day.

But losing at home isn't good either. But I think Wesley still reeks havoc on several other Pool B contenders down the stretch.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 15, 2012, 11:09:21 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.

Seriously. The perceived depth of Pool B this year looked like it'd have serious Pool C ramifications. Guess it still might, but it doesn't look quite as likely after today.
IMHO, Wesley's loss is not that bad. I think that UMHB is #2 in the country only because they have not beaten UMU in 8 years.   ;)

Agreed. UMHB is legit. I've had them ranked #3 all year. #2 after UWW's rough day.

But losing at home isn't good either. But I think Wesley still reeks havoc on several other Pool B contenders down the stretch.
I think that the Pool B's will have enough common opponents that we can get a good assessment of the best team. :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hazzben on September 15, 2012, 11:11:01 pm
Crazy thought...what if Macalaster goes undefeated. It could happen. Here's their remaining schedule:

9/22    at Lewis & Clark •   
10/6    at Carleton •
10/13    vs. Rhodes   
10/20    vs. Trinity Bible   
10/27    at Mayville St.   
11/3    vs. Augsburg •   
11/10    at Hamline •

I'd be surprised if they won them all. But if they can knock off L&C next week, they'd at least have a shot at it.

Does a 10-0 Mac team have a shot at an at large  :o They'd have to have one of the worst OWP in the country if they did it.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hazzben on September 15, 2012, 11:12:15 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.

Seriously. The perceived depth of Pool B this year looked like it'd have serious Pool C ramifications. Guess it still might, but it doesn't look quite as likely after today.
IMHO, Wesley's loss is not that bad. I think that UMHB is #2 in the country only because they have not beaten UMU in 8 years.   ;)

Agreed. UMHB is legit. I've had them ranked #3 all year. #2 after UWW's rough day.

But losing at home isn't good either. But I think Wesley still reeks havoc on several other Pool B contenders down the stretch.
I think that the Pool B's will have enough common opponents that we can get a good assessment of the best team. :)

I agree with that. But there was talk earlier this year that some Pool B teams would be in contention for a Pool C. That's what I was arguing took a bit of a hit today.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on September 15, 2012, 11:15:25 pm


But losing at home isn't good either. But I think Wesley still reeks havoc on several other Pool B contenders down the stretch.

I don't think Wesley is going to smell out the others in Pool B.

They may wreak havoc, though!

 ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on September 15, 2012, 11:16:29 pm
Pool B is taking a beating today.  Wesley, CWRU, and Trinity have all lost.  Centre is losing.  Crazy day out there.

Seriously. The perceived depth of Pool B this year looked like it'd have serious Pool C ramifications. Guess it still might, but it doesn't look quite as likely after today.
IMHO, Wesley's loss is not that bad. I think that UMHB is #2 in the country only because they have not beaten UMU in 8 years.   ;)

Agreed. UMHB is legit. I've had them ranked #3 all year. #2 after UWW's rough day.

But losing at home isn't good either. But I think Wesley still reeks havoc on several other Pool B contenders down the stretch.
I think that the Pool B's will have enough common opponents that we can get a good assessment of the best team. :)

I agree with that. But there was talk earlier this year that some Pool B teams would be in contention for a Pool C. That's what I was arguing took a bit of a hit today.

They still are. If this is the only loss for some of those teams then they'd still be viable "C" candidates.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on September 24, 2012, 02:17:19 pm
I'd have to think Carnegie Mellon and Birmingham Southern are the 'leaders' thus far in the race for the "B", but it's still early.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on September 24, 2012, 02:34:25 pm
I'd have to think Carnegie Mellon and Birmingham Southern are the 'leaders' thus far in the race for the "B", but it's still early.

It's still early, and there's still going to be a lot of B-on-B carnage: Wesley vs. Birmingham Southern, Wesley vs. Huntingdon, plus Birmingham-Southern, Centre, Millsaps, Trinity all have games remaining against each other.  Somebody will emerge in the end, but there could be quite a mess with all those teams beating each other.

I think we can cross CWRU off the list of realistic contenders at this point - even if they run the table, those two losses are killers.  We probably don't have to worry about Macalaster either after their loss to L & C.

CMU is definitely in the mix, but they've got 'Bash this week and a slate of conference opponents that historically all play each other tough no matter who looks best on paper entering conference play.

This Saturday's key Pool B games seem to be CMU vs. Wabash (because that will tell us whether CMU has a chance to make it through unscathed) and Centre vs. Millsaps (loser likely eliminated from Pool B consideration with both still yet to play B-SC and Trinity).  The 10/6 game between Wesley and BSC also looms large.  We won't have real clarity until mid-October once the Artists Formerly Known As The SCAC start playing each other.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 24, 2012, 10:23:13 pm
Fair or not, in 2013, it'll be win your league (or finish with one loss in the OAC or WIAC) or go home.

OAC and WIAC aren't automatic, but there are definitely fewer opportunities for at-large teams on the horizon.

I think that the Pool B's will have enough common opponents that we can get a good assessment of the best team. :)

Agree 100% and I like it that way.

I also think there are chances for Bs to get in in C, but it's early yet.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on September 24, 2012, 10:24:39 pm
I think we can cross CWRU off the list of realistic contenders at this point - even if they run the table, those two losses are killers.  We probably don't have to worry about Macalaster either after their loss to L & C.

Agree on both counts.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: @d3jason on October 08, 2012, 03:35:59 pm
Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)

Carnegie Mellon         5-1  lost to Wabash
Birmingham So.         5-1  lost to Wesley, beat Huntingdon
Huntingdon              5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps
Millsaps                   4-1  lost to Huntingdon
Wesley                    4-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So

Two-loss teams need a lot of help
Centre                    4-2 
Rhodes                    3-2
Trinity                     3-2
Chicago                   3-2
Macalester               3-2
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 08, 2012, 04:38:04 pm
Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)

Carnegie Mellon         5-1  lost to Wabash                                     Must Play Ohio Wesleyan
Birmingham So.         5-1  lost to Wesley, beat Huntingdon              Must play Millsaps
Huntingdon              5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps         Must play Wesley
Millsaps                   4-1  lost to Huntingdon                                Must Play Birmingham-Southern
Wesley                    4-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So                    Must Play Huntingdon

Two-loss teams need a lot of help
Centre                    4-2 
Rhodes                    3-2
Trinity                     3-2
Chicago                   3-2
Macalester               3-2
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hazzben on October 09, 2012, 10:56:46 am
Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)

Carnegie Mellon         5-1  lost to Wabash                                     Must Play Ohio Wesleyan
Birmingham So.         5-1  lost to Wesley, beat Huntingdon              Must play Millsaps
Huntingdon              5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps         Must play Wesley
Millsaps                   4-1  lost to Huntingdon                                Must Play Birmingham-Southern
Wesley                    4-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So                    Must Play Huntingdon


Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: jknezek on October 09, 2012, 11:49:01 am
Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 09, 2012, 12:55:52 pm
Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

Birmingham-Southern looks really good per the criteria so far.  I have them as my top at-large South team after Wesley goes from Pool B.  B-SC and Huntingdon, in fact, are my top two at-large teams from the South right now.  It gets all kinds of interesting if Huntingdon beats Wesley.  I think what happens there is that B-SC becomes the Pool B, Huntingdon goes quickly in Pool C, and Wesley hopes and prays that they don't get left out. 

I think CMU needs some help to get to the top of the Pool B heap (namely, Wesley must lose, and B-SC and Huntingdon probably need to pick up a second loss somewhere also).  But 9-1 CMU will probably have a good shot at a Pool C bid if it comes to that. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 14, 2012, 09:07:53 pm
The CMU / OWU game is huge. Neither team can afford to lose that if they want to stay in the playoff hunt (that is assuming OWU loses to Wabash though I shouldn't REALLY be so certain of that.)

By the end of October we may be down to one true "B" contender.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on October 15, 2012, 06:25:38 am
Gotta imagine that Wesley is still first in line if they win out.

Huntingdon probably jumps into that driver's seat if they manage to upset Wesley; even with a loss to B-SC, they'd own H2H wins over two of the other top contenders (Wesley and Millsaps).

Millsaps does have a chance to finish 9-1, but they do have a couple dates with some of those good two-loss teams just below them.  However, it's hard to see a scenario where they finish above both Wesley and Huntingdon (assuming that whoever wins that head-to-head game finishes 9-1, I don't see how Millsaps gets ranked above that team).

CMU still has a realistic chance to finish 9-1 and get a Pool C if they can beat OWU this weekend, although the UAA games always seem competitive regardless of team records entering conference play.

Just can't imagine any of those two loss teams actually getting the bid; although several will have a chance to play spoiler in the weeks to come, it's just hard for me to imagine that NONE of the four 5-1 teams will make it to 9-1, and it would be very surprising IMO to see an 8-2 Pool B selection with a 9-1 team on the board, especially with so many common opponents.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: cludad on October 15, 2012, 07:16:33 pm
Where does Willamette fit in if they lose to Linfield only ,they would be 9-1?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 15, 2012, 07:22:29 pm
They'd be a "C" contender, not a "B".
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: cludad on October 15, 2012, 07:32:11 pm
thank you.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 15, 2012, 10:05:57 pm
Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

Birmingham-Southern looks really good per the criteria so far. I have them as my top at-large South team after Wesley goes from Pool B.  B-SC and Huntingdon, in fact, are my top two at-large teams from the South right now.  It gets all kinds of interesting if Huntingdon beats Wesley.  I think what happens there is that B-SC becomes the Pool B, Huntingdon goes quickly in Pool C, and Wesley hopes and prays that they don't get left out. 

I think CMU needs some help to get to the top of the Pool B heap (namely, Wesley must lose, and B-SC and Huntingdon probably need to pick up a second loss somewhere also).  But 9-1 CMU will probably have a good shot at a Pool C bid if it comes to that.

You were already running playoff selection simulations as of last week!?!?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on October 15, 2012, 10:13:54 pm
Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

Birmingham-Southern looks really good per the criteria so far. I have them as my top at-large South team after Wesley goes from Pool B.  B-SC and Huntingdon, in fact, are my top two at-large teams from the South right now.  It gets all kinds of interesting if Huntingdon beats Wesley.  I think what happens there is that B-SC becomes the Pool B, Huntingdon goes quickly in Pool C, and Wesley hopes and prays that they don't get left out. 

I think CMU needs some help to get to the top of the Pool B heap (namely, Wesley must lose, and B-SC and Huntingdon probably need to pick up a second loss somewhere also).  But 9-1 CMU will probably have a good shot at a Pool C bid if it comes to that.

You were already running playoff selection simulations as of last week!?!?

It's official - Wally has no life! ;D

(JK, Wally - revenge for years of you making a fool of me on NCAC Pickems!  This year I knew we'd be on the road for a couple of weeks, so I only entered two contests; couldn't keep up on the road, so have now dropped out of even them.)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 15, 2012, 10:29:15 pm
I just discovered he lists the projections on the Pool C thread.

Always good to see ... I can refer people to those for a couple weeks before having to do my own work  ;)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 21, 2012, 09:38:17 am
Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)


Huntingdon         5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps; Wesley on 10/27; vs. 6-1 Adrian on 11/10
Millsaps           6-1  lost to Huntingdon; remaining games at three-loss Trinity and home v. three-loss BSC
Wesley             6-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So; at Huntingdon 10/27

Two-loss teams need a lot of help:

Carnegie Mellon    5-2 
Centre             6-2 

B-SC, Rhodes, Trinity all lost yesterday (to Sewanee [!], Millsaps, Centre respectively)

[fixed to include CMU loss - thanks, smed!]
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: desertcat1 on October 21, 2012, 11:26:49 am
Where does Willamette fit in if they lose to Linfield only ,they would be 9-1?

forget that after yesterday DAD. :'(  it's back to the Catdome again .. :-*
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 21, 2012, 12:42:16 pm
Ron, CMU lost to OWU, so they're 5-2 and tumble out of serious contention unless anarchy strikes.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on October 22, 2012, 09:18:07 am
Ron, CMU lost to OWU, so they're 5-2 and tumble out of serious contention unless anarchy strikes.

Corrected, Smed - thanks.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: SUADC on October 22, 2012, 09:28:43 am
Where does Willamette fit in if they lose to Linfield only ,they would be 9-1?

forget that after yesterday DAD. :'(  it's back to the Catdome again .. :-*

If Willamette goes 9-1, they'll definitely be in the playoffs and that depends on if they beat Linfield. However, at 8-2 and a loss to Pac Lutheran, which in my opinion is not a bad loss they'll maybe take that trip to Cal Lutheran or to UMHB (if they get a Pool C) and some other West team travels to the Catdome. Maybe second round, but who knows, last year Linfield traveled across the country to Dover and Redlands went to Belton.

Just looking at the NWC, they may get three teams in the playoffs if Willamette wins out and Pacific Lutheran Wins out, and Linfield only loss is to Willamette. This makes up an interesting next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 22, 2012, 11:39:08 am
Where does Willamette fit in if they lose to Linfield only ,they would be 9-1?

forget that after yesterday DAD. :'(  it's back to the Catdome again .. :-*

If Willamette goes 9-1, they'll definitely be in the playoffs and that depends on if they beat Linfield. However, at 8-2 and a loss to Pac Lutheran, which in my opinion is not a bad loss they'll maybe take that trip to Cal Lutheran or to UMHB (if they get a Pool C) and some other West team travels to the Catdome. Maybe second round, but who knows, last year Linfield traveled across the country to Dover and Redlands went to Belton.

Just looking at the NWC, they may get three teams in the playoffs if Willamette wins out and Pacific Lutheran Wins out, and Linfield only loss is to Willamette. This makes up an interesting next couple of weeks.

We're swimming in Pool B, so just so everything is clear, Willamette would be a Pool C team for at-large consideration. 

If Willamette gets to 9-1, they'll have beaten Linfield and will most likely qualify via Pool A.  If they lose to Linfield and end up at 8-2, they're going to be in line behind a 2-loss PLU, unless the world has lost its mind. 

Willamette knocking Linfield into Pool C (they'd be certain to be selected) does invite the possibility of three NWC teams making the field, however, the West is very deep with strong at-large teams and PLU's second loss will keep them off the table for a while.    My guess is that three NWC teams would be unlikely, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility given the attrition that is happening around the D3 at-large pools. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 22, 2012, 03:49:25 pm
We're swimming in Pool B, so just so everything is clear, Willamette would be a Pool C team for at-large consideration. 

If Willamette gets to 9-1, they'll have beaten Linfield and will most likely qualify via Pool A.  If they lose to Linfield and end up at 8-2, they're going to be in line behind a 2-loss PLU, unless the world has lost its mind. 

Willamette knocking Linfield into Pool C (they'd be certain to be selected) does invite the possibility of three NWC teams making the field, however, the West is very deep with strong at-large teams and PLU's second loss will keep them off the table for a while.  My guess is that three NWC teams would be unlikely, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility given the attrition that is happening around the D3 at-large pools.

Unless PLU becomes the Pool A with a Willamette win over Linfield?  I'm not sure how the NWC three-way tiebreaker works...I think they go with overall record (hurts PLU) before the Rose Bowl rule (which would give the bid to PLU).

But, yes, any remaining NWC teams would be considered for a Pool C bid (not Pool B).  Sorry to add to muddy waters on that side of things.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on October 27, 2012, 05:09:37 pm
Welp, I think "B" is settled now with Wesley's win. Huntingdon, Centre and Millsaps now fighting for their lives for a "C" and CMU is totally knocked out.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on October 27, 2012, 10:38:18 pm
Welp, I think "B" is settled now with Wesley's win. Huntingdon, Centre and Millsaps now fighting for their lives for a "C" and CMU is totally knocked out.

Yes. With two weeks to play, and Wesley with zero D-III opponents left. And a bye week before a playoff game ... perhaps unintentional, yet useful.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 19, 2012, 02:05:44 pm
Pat had a cryptic comment on the NEFC board, to the effect of Pool B will be alright in 2013, but probably tough in 2014.  I assume he was referring to movement of teams in and out of the pool in those years, but I've lost track of who is going where.  Can someone elaborate on pool B's upcoming membership?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: bman on November 19, 2012, 02:36:40 pm
Pat had a cryptic comment on the NEFC board, to the effect of Pool B will be alright in 2013, but probably tough in 2014.  I assume he was referring to movement of teams in and out of the pool in those years, but I've lost track of who is going where.  Can someone elaborate on pool B's upcoming membership?
He was referring to the MASCAC conference.  They will have to wait 2 years for a Pool A.  All of those teams (which are bottom feeders from other weak conferences) will be Pool B teams for 2 years...clearly the conference winner will be in the running for a Pool B...
Given that it's acknowledged as a very weak conference, if someone runs the board(I think Pat is referencing Western Conn coming out of the NJAC), it might potentially eliminate a "deserving" pool B (Wesley, Huntingdon etc...)
Since there are teams forming this conference that are getting Pool C invites (to most everyone's dismay), this has the potential to disrupt Pool B greatly...

Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 19, 2012, 04:16:44 pm
Pat had a cryptic comment on the NEFC board, to the effect of Pool B will be alright in 2013, but probably tough in 2014.  I assume he was referring to movement of teams in and out of the pool in those years, but I've lost track of who is going where.  Can someone elaborate on pool B's upcoming membership?
He was referring to the MASCAC conference.  They will have to wait 2 years for a Pool A.  All of those teams (which are bottom feeders from other weak conferences) will be Pool B teams for 2 years...clearly the conference winner will be in the running for a Pool B...
Given that it's acknowledged as a very weak conference, if someone runs the board(I think Pat is referencing Western Conn coming out of the NJAC), it might potentially eliminate a "deserving" pool B (Wesley, Huntingdon etc...)
Since there are teams forming this conference that are getting Pool C invites (to most everyone's dismay), this has the potential to disrupt Pool B greatly...

Yeah, I knew it was in the context of MASCAC teams being added to the pool B pool, but why the difference between 2013 and 2014?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 19, 2012, 04:47:07 pm
I believe the SAA would qualify for an AQ in 2014, pulling seven teams out of Pool B and potentially making it a one-bid pool.

My point is that in 2013, the MASCAC will add seven schools to Pool B but might not be a threat to take a bid. Also, in 2014 Case and Carnegie Mellon join the PAC as affiliate members. So Pool B in 2014 could be the MASCAC, Wesley, Macalester, Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Austin College/Southwestern, Wash U/Chicago. It's going to take about 18 or 19 schools to get two Pool B slots in the playoffs and 2014 is going to be short, I think.

Huntingdon joins the USA South next year.

Ralph may remember moves I'm blanking on.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Mr. Ypsi on November 19, 2012, 05:47:21 pm
I believe the SAA would qualify for an AQ in 2014, pulling seven teams out of Pool B and potentially making it a one-bid pool.

My point is that in 2013, the MASCAC will add seven schools to Pool B but might not be a threat to take a bid. Also, in 2014 Case and Carnegie Mellon join the PAC as affiliate members. So Pool B in 2014 could be the MASCAC, Wesley, Macalester, Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Austin College/Southwestern, Wash U/Chicago. It's going to take about 18 or 19 schools to get two Pool B slots in the playoffs and 2014 is going to be short, I think.

Huntingdon joins the USA South next year.

Ralph may remember moves I'm blanking on.

Thanks, Pat - I knew I could count on you (and/or Ralph) to come through!

One further question - if a school joins an existing AQ conference are they immediately eligible for the AQ (conference rules permitting), or is there an NCAA waiting period?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 19, 2012, 06:06:39 pm
I believe the SAA would qualify for an AQ in 2014, pulling seven teams out of Pool B and potentially making it a one-bid pool.

My point is that in 2013, the MASCAC will add seven schools to Pool B but might not be a threat to take a bid. Also, in 2014 Case and Carnegie Mellon join the PAC as affiliate members. So Pool B in 2014 could be the MASCAC, Wesley, Macalester, Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Austin College/Southwestern, Wash U/Chicago. It's going to take about 18 or 19 schools to get two Pool B slots in the playoffs and 2014 is going to be short, I think.

Huntingdon joins the USA South next year.

Ralph may remember moves I'm blanking on.
I think that you have them.  Pat, I appreciate your insight into the application of the Pool by-laws to the MASCAC situation.

Is it 2015 when Wash U and Chicago affiliate with the SAA?

I have not seen Finlandia's progress, but I guess that they have suspended adding football.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2012, 06:41:49 pm
I believe the SAA would qualify for an AQ in 2014, pulling seven teams out of Pool B and potentially making it a one-bid pool.

My point is that in 2013, the MASCAC will add seven schools to Pool B but might not be a threat to take a bid. Also, in 2014 Case and Carnegie Mellon join the PAC as affiliate members. So Pool B in 2014 could be the MASCAC, Wesley, Macalester, Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Austin College/Southwestern, Wash U/Chicago. It's going to take about 18 or 19 schools to get two Pool B slots in the playoffs and 2014 is going to be short, I think.

Huntingdon joins the USA South next year.

Ralph may remember moves I'm blanking on.

Thanks, Pat - I knew I could count on you (and/or Ralph) to come through!

One further question - if a school joins an existing AQ conference are they immediately eligible for the AQ (conference rules permitting), or is there an NCAA waiting period?

I don't think there's an NCAA waiting period, but I do think most conferences have a year or two wait, as you alluded to.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ron Boerger on November 19, 2012, 06:42:25 pm
2015 for WashU and UC to the SAA, Ralph - you are correct.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 19, 2012, 08:22:25 pm
They are immediately eligible (see Salisbury winning Empire 8, for example).

That's what made the SAA move so baffling in the context of football playoffs alone (obvi it was more complex than that). The SCAC had an AQ underneath its banner and couldn't get enough affiliates, even if the UAA were willing (short core members).

The SAA split cost those 7 teams a playoff bid this year. Likely would have shaken up the whole field, with LC going to the SAA/SCAC champ in round 1, BSU not getting in and someone else having to fly to UMHB (CLU maybe?).
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 19, 2012, 08:27:26 pm
I think the SAA presidents were looking at the greater good for their schools rather than an "A" football bid. Alas...
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on November 19, 2012, 08:28:34 pm
I believe the SAA would qualify for an AQ in 2014, pulling seven teams out of Pool B and potentially making it a one-bid pool.

My point is that in 2013, the MASCAC will add seven schools to Pool B but might not be a threat to take a bid. Also, in 2014 Case and Carnegie Mellon join the PAC as affiliate members. So Pool B in 2014 could be the MASCAC, Wesley, Macalester, Trinity/Texas Lutheran/Austin College/Southwestern, Wash U/Chicago. It's going to take about 18 or 19 schools to get two Pool B slots in the playoffs and 2014 is going to be short, I think.

Huntingdon joins the USA South next year.

Ralph may remember moves I'm blanking on.

Thanks, Pat - I knew I could count on you (and/or Ralph) to come through!

One further question - if a school joins an existing AQ conference are they immediately eligible for the AQ (conference rules permitting), or is there an NCAA waiting period?

I don't think there's an NCAA waiting period, but I do think most conferences have a year or two wait, as you alluded to.

If you join an existing AQ conference, you are eligible right away by NCAA standards. The conference may have a different standard but the only time I have seen that in football is what the SCIAC did to Chapman last year.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 19, 2012, 08:39:09 pm
I think the SAA presidents were looking at the greater good for their schools rather than an "A" football bid. Alas...

As I acknowledged in the original post.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 19, 2012, 09:11:32 pm
I think the SAA presidents were looking at the greater good for their schools rather than an "A" football bid. Alas...

As I acknowledged in the original post.

Of course!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 10:32:15 am
I think the SAA presidents were looking at the greater good for their schools rather than an "A" football bid. Alas...

There's a greater good for schools besides access to a Pool A bid?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: smedindy on November 20, 2012, 10:51:39 am
I think the SAA presidents were looking at the greater good for their schools rather than an "A" football bid. Alas...

There's a greater good for schools besides access to a Pool A bid?

Well, at least on the D3 level. With the recent issues with Maryland and Rutgers, I don't think D-1A presidents can see the forest for the green.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hazzben on November 21, 2012, 01:30:10 pm
I think the SAA presidents were looking at the greater good for their schools rather than an "A" football bid. Alas...

There's a greater good for schools besides access to a Pool A bid?

Well, at least on the D3 level. With the recent issues with Maryland and Rutgers, I don't think D-1A presidents can see the forest for the green.

Eh, I get that this was a money grab. And as a B1G guy, I'm not sure how well MD and Rutgers fit. But for MD, who recently cut 7 teams due to budget shortages, being concerned about money has real implications for its student athletes. Most schools aren't like tOSU, Michigan, Texas, etc. Basically printing money off the proceeds they get through football. The B1G added them as a pure money grab. Absolutely agree with that. But for MD and Rutgers, these aren't two really football rich schools out to get even richer. They were two schools with athletic budgets operating in the red for many years. They saw a chance for stability and money. I can't fault them for that, even if I'm not sure I want them in my conference.

Sorry to get us sidetracked...  :o
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: K-Mack on November 26, 2012, 05:49:06 pm
That all makes sense.

The Big Ten is money-grabbing the D.C. and NYC TV markets too, let's keep it real here. That network is going to be in a lot more homes, and it's amazing that other conferences haven't successfully emulated the formula.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on November 26, 2012, 09:45:04 pm
That all makes sense.

The Big Ten is money-grabbing the D.C. and NYC TV markets too, let's keep it real here. That network is going to be in a lot more homes, and it's amazing that other conferences haven't successfully emulated the formula.
SMU in the Big East?  DFW market for that confernece
Missouri and Texas A&M in the SEC?  More markets for the SEC, plus recruiting in-roads into Texas!

Respectfully, I think that the only major conference that could have pulled that off was the Big Ten.

Do the Rutgers fans really want to see another game between Arkansas and/or Mississippi State?

Back to Pool B.  Wesley is still alive!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on April 24, 2013, 08:25:51 pm
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2013/04/macalester-to-join-midwest-conference

Macalester joins the MWC as a football affiliate in 2014.

Three fewer Pool B schools (with CRWU and C-M going to the Pres AC)  in 2014.

I will update Pool B in 2014 later.


As I see it now (and corrections will be greatly appreciated!!!)
UAA         (2)  -- Wash U, Chicago.  (going to the SAA in 2015)
SCAC       (4)  -- Trinity, Texas Lutheran, Austin College, Southwestern
Indep        (1)  -- Wesley
MASCAC   (7)   -- 

Will CNU still affiliate with the USA South to keep access to a Pool A bid?


:-[   :D  Thanks for the Correction, FC!  +1!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: FCGrizzliesGrad on April 24, 2013, 09:46:33 pm
Macalester joins the NWC as a football affiliate in 2014.
I think you meant MWC not NWC... that'd be a lot of long flights out to Washington/Oregon
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Gray Fox on April 29, 2013, 05:48:37 pm
Will that help schools like Austin complete a schedule where they don't have to double up on teams?
The MIAC now needs games.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on April 30, 2013, 03:21:51 pm
Will that help schools like Austin complete a schedule where they don't have to double up on teams?
The MIAC now needs games.

It doesn't really change MIAC schedules. Macalester has played two or three MIAC schools a year since they left the MIAC for football a decade ago and it looks like they could continue to play two (say, rival Carleton and area beatable opponent Hamline). That really only leaves one MIAC school with one game to fill.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on April 30, 2013, 11:54:45 pm
Will that help schools like Austin complete a schedule where they don't have to double up on teams?
The MIAC now needs games.

It doesn't really change MIAC schedules. Macalester has played two or three MIAC schools a year since they left the MIAC for football a decade ago and it looks like they could continue to play two (say, rival Carleton and area beatable opponent Hamline). That really only leaves one MIAC school with one game to fill.

And all the other MWC schools will now need an additional non-conference opponent.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Gray Fox on May 01, 2013, 04:16:59 pm
thanks hickory,
That's what I thought I read in the press release.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on May 01, 2013, 07:33:03 pm
Will that help schools like Austin complete a schedule where they don't have to double up on teams?
The MIAC now needs games.

It doesn't really change MIAC schedules. Macalester has played two or three MIAC schools a year since they left the MIAC for football a decade ago and it looks like they could continue to play two (say, rival Carleton and area beatable opponent Hamline). That really only leaves one MIAC school with one game to fill.
And all the other MWC schools will now need an additional non-conference opponent.
...which they can find in the NATHC, the UMAC, and the IIAC.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on September 15, 2013, 12:41:06 am
I know it is early to start a Pool B watch, but Texas Lutheran beat Trinity TX, and has a favorable schedule until the Louisiana College game on 11/02.  It is plausible for the Bulldogs to go 9-1 on the season, 7-1 in-region.  (Do games against Mississippi College who is going D-2 still count as 'in-region?)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on September 15, 2013, 03:15:06 pm
I know it is early to start a Pool B watch, but Texas Lutheran beat Trinity TX, and has a favorable schedule until the Louisiana College game on 11/02.  It is plausible for the Bulldogs to go 9-1 on the season, 7-1 in-region.  (Do games against Mississippi College who is going D-2 still count as 'in-region?)

http://www.d3sports.com/notables/2013/09/on-further-review-mc-goes-d2
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on October 02, 2013, 11:46:58 am
Too early to take our first look at Pool B hopefuls?  Or shall we wait another week to get most teams up to 5 games played?
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 02, 2013, 11:55:39 am
I was going to start projecting the at-larges next week...keeping my fingers crossed for a strength of schedule link to pop back up after Saturday's action.   :)
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 02, 2013, 06:45:48 pm
I was going to start projecting the at-larges next week...keeping my fingers crossed for a strength of schedule link to pop back up after Saturday's action.   :)

We can probably manage that. Remind me if you don't see it.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 07, 2013, 04:15:21 pm
I was going to start projecting the at-larges next week...keeping my fingers crossed for a strength of schedule link to pop back up after Saturday's action.   :)

We can probably manage that. Remind me if you don't see it.

Just a reminder about the SOS link.  Thanks for getting all of that info out...couldn't play around with stuff like the at-large projection without it. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Ralph Turner on October 07, 2013, 08:02:56 pm
I was going to start projecting the at-larges next week...keeping my fingers crossed for a strength of schedule link to pop back up after Saturday's action.   :)

We can probably manage that. Remind me if you don't see it.

Just a reminder about the SOS link.  Thanks for getting all of that info out...couldn't play around with stuff like the at-large projection without it.
Aw shucks. I was hoping for your projections when I saw that you had posted.

My three as of today.

Wesley on strength of schedule.
Millsaps, currently leading the SAA
Texas Lutheran, currently leading the SCAC.  TLU has been on my watch list since they beat Trinity TX
Title: Re: Pool B/C
Post by: wally_wabash on October 08, 2013, 10:50:53 am
Alright, I'm going to go ahead and post my selections here...kind of fudging a little bit for this first week because there are so many undefeated teams left.  I'll explain some of the fudge factor a little further down.  First, the AQs. 

   League   
Team
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   North Central   
   ECFC   
   Gallaudet   
   E8   
   St. John Fisher   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Coe   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MAC   
   Lycoming   
   MIAC   
   Bethel   
   MWC   
   Illinois College   
   MIAA   
   Adrian   
   NACC   
   Concordia (Wis.)   
   NCAC   
   Wabash   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Hampden-Sydney   
   PAC   
   Thomas More   
   SCIAC   
   Cal Lutheran   
   UMAC   
   Greenville   
   USAC   
   Huntingdon   
   WIAC   
   UW-Whitewater   

Obviously we have a lot of ties for first place as many leagues have only played 1-2 conference games and many more of those have tremendously backloaded the schedule with the juicy games.  So where we have ties, I used my discretion as to which team I think is best and will win.  This is one of the few attempts at predicting the future that I'll do here. 

Now we pick Pool Bs.  There are three this year...Here are the three:

Millsaps 4-0
Wesley 4-1
Texas Lutheran 3-0

Spot on, Ralph.  I really don't see any way around these three at the moment.  Chicago could have made an interesting choice had they won on Saturday.  I kind of think Wesley is out of the woods.  They do have a non-trivial game left at Rowan, but given that that game means everything to Wesley and kind of means very little to Rowan (in terms of qualifying for the postseason), I would expect Wesley to win there.  TLU has a tough game left with Louisiana College and maybe Hardin-Simmons as well...so they aren't quite out of the woods yet.  In any case, these are the three Pool B's as of today. 

Pool C...so much competition here.  Only five spots available.  Here are my picks, in order of selection:

Concordia-Moorhead 4-0
UW-Oshkosh 4-0
John Carroll 4-0
Wheaton 4-0
Pacific 4-0

Here's kind of where the fudge factor comes in.  I'm not taking more than one at-large team from any particular conference.  As the season plays out, there aren't going to be 5 undefeated or 1-loss teams from the MIAC or WIAC or CCIW or NWC.  They just haven't played through enough of the schedule to separate yet.  In any case, when all is said and done here, there's really only going to be (at most) one viable at-large team from these leagues, so I'm taking one (where appropriate) and kind of dismissing the rest.  So sorry to St. Thomas and Heidelberg and IWU and Platteville. 

So how did I get to these five?  Moorhead I think has the best win of anybody in the at-large pool having beaten St. Johns on the road (who beat St. Thomas, which makes it pretty easy to make an MIAA pecking order at the moment). 

Oshkosh is the second team off the board.  I'm cheating a little bit and giving them quite a bit of credit for thrashing Marian which really doesn't count per the criteria, but that result is hard to ignore completely, particularly this early on when we only have 40-50% of our total data set. 

Eyeballing the schedules, it looks to me like John Carroll has played a slightly stronger schedule than the rest of their North region teams so they hit the top of the North region list.  That win against St. Norbert gets better all the time...St. Norbert could win a share of the MWC (they don't play Illinois College...both could conceivably go undefeated in league play).  Interestingly, I'm currently voting Heidelberg in front of JCU in the north region poll, but I think per the selection criteria, JCU grades out better than Heidelberg.  Heidelberg has big fat Alma donut dragging their SOS down while JCU's non-league game is 4-1 St. Norbert.  Which now that I think about it isn't a regional game.  But even still...no data at all in your SOS is better than 0-5 in the OWP part of your SOS.  And if Norbert gets to 7-1 or 8-1 and is undefeated in West region play, they've got a good chance to be reginoally ranked, which does matter. 

So that leaves one.  On the board here are Ursinus (5-0), Hartwick (4-0), Wittenberg (3-1, 3-0 in D3 play), and Pacific (4-0).  I'm tossing Wittenberg because their D3 schedule doesn't hold up at the moment and they can't get any sympathy points from the Butler game they took.  Have to show better than that to get "good loss" points.  Of the three remaining, they all have kind of middling looking schedules, except for one result: Pacific beating Adrian.  That's by far the best result amongst these three and that's going to be the reason that I pull the trigger on Pacific. 

Certainly we can quibble about why I'm putting Pacific ahead of PLU or Willamette or anybody else in the West region, but the fact is that they have a road win against a team that is probably going to sweep a much-improved MIAA.  That's impressive.  And Adrian should be regionally ranked when we get that far, which plays in Pacific's favor...for now at least. 

So that's my first peek at the field of 32.  The first one is tough...it gets much more analytical the further down the road we get- much less conjecture on my part. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: Pat Coleman on October 08, 2013, 12:06:07 pm
SOS page is up:
http://www.d3football.com/seasons/2013/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

One big caveat: I will be marking ALL D-III games as regional in order to get that number since overall D-III SOS is a primary criterion this year. So this will change.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: hickory_cornhusker on October 08, 2013, 12:44:20 pm
I have a question. As Pat mentioned, Overall D-III SOS is primary criteria. Is Overall D-III record primary criteria? The reason I ask is because unless I missed something Chicago is still undefeated in regional play. Rhodes is in the SAA, South Region, and Administrative Region 3. Chicago is in the UAA (until 2015? when they join the SAA), North Region, and Adminsitrative Region 4.

I still wouldn't put Chicago in the top 3 of Pool B but just curious. Also history doesn't exactly bode well for a UAA team in this situation. Case Western Reserve went 9-0 in region in 2011(?) and lost to Rochester out of region and missed the Pool B bid.
Title: Re: Pool B/C
Post by: WarhawkDad on October 08, 2013, 12:55:22 pm
Alright, I'm going to go ahead and post my selections here...kind of fudging a little bit for this first week because there are so many undefeated teams left.  I'll explain some of the fudge factor a little further down.  First, the AQs. 

   League   
Team
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   North Central   
   ECFC   
   Gallaudet   
   E8   
   St. John Fisher   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Coe   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MAC   
   Lycoming   
   MIAC   
   Bethel   
   MWC   
   Illinois College   
   MIAA   
   Adrian   
   NACC   
   Concordia (Wis.)   
   NCAC   
   Wabash   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Hampden-Sydney   
   PAC   
   Thomas More   
   SCIAC   
   Cal Lutheran   
   UMAC   
   Greenville   
   USAC   
   Huntingdon   
   WIAC   
   UW-Whitewater   

Obviously we have a lot of ties for first place as many leagues have only played 1-2 conference games and many more of those have tremendously backloaded the schedule with the juicy games.  So where we have ties, I used my discretion as to which team I think is best and will win.  This is one of the few attempts at predicting the future that I'll do here. 

Now we pick Pool Bs.  There are three this year...Here are the three:

Millsaps 4-0
Wesley 4-1
Texas Lutheran 3-0

Spot on, Ralph.  I really don't see any way around these three at the moment.  Chicago could have made an interesting choice had they won on Saturday.  I kind of think Wesley is out of the woods.  They do have a non-trivial game left at Rowan, but given that that game means everything to Wesley and kind of means very little to Rowan (in terms of qualifying for the postseason), I would expect Wesley to win there.  TLU has a tough game left with Louisiana College and maybe Hardin-Simmons as well...so they aren't quite out of the woods yet.  In any case, these are the three Pool B's as of today. 

Pool C...so much competition here.  Only five spots available.  Here are my picks, in order of selection:

Concordia-Moorhead 4-0
UW-Oshkosh 4-0
John Carroll 4-0
Wheaton 4-0
Pacific 4-0

Here's kind of where the fudge factor comes in.  I'm not taking more than one at-large team from any particular conference.  As the season plays out, there aren't going to be 5 undefeated or 1-loss teams from the MIAC or WIAC or CCIW or NWC.  They just haven't played through enough of the schedule to separate yet.  In any case, when all is said and done here, there's really only going to be (at most) one viable at-large team from these leagues, so I'm taking one (where appropriate) and kind of dismissing the rest.  So sorry to St. Thomas and Heidelberg and IWU and Platteville. 

So how did I get to these five?  Moorhead I think has the best win of anybody in the at-large pool having beaten St. Johns on the road (who beat St. Thomas, which makes it pretty easy to make an MIAA pecking order at the moment). 

Oshkosh is the second team off the board.  I'm cheating a little bit and giving them quite a bit of credit for thrashing Marian which really doesn't count per the criteria, but that result is hard to ignore completely, particularly this early on when we only have 40-50% of our total data set. 

Eyeballing the schedules, it looks to me like John Carroll has played a slightly stronger schedule than the rest of their North region teams so they hit the top of the North region list.  That win against St. Norbert gets better all the time...St. Norbert could win a share of the MWC (they don't play Illinois College...both could conceivably go undefeated in league play).  Interestingly, I'm currently voting Heidelberg in front of JCU in the north region poll, but I think per the selection criteria, JCU grades out better than Heidelberg.  Heidelberg has big fat Alma donut dragging their SOS down while JCU's non-league game is 4-1 St. Norbert.  Which now that I think about it isn't a regional game.  But even still...no data at all in your SOS is better than 0-5 in the OWP part of your SOS.  And if Norbert gets to 7-1 or 8-1 and is undefeated in West region play, they've got a good chance to be reginoally ranked, which does matter. 

So that leaves one.  On the board here are Ursinus (5-0), Hartwick (4-0), Wittenberg (3-1, 3-0 in D3 play), and Pacific (4-0).  I'm tossing Wittenberg because their D3 schedule doesn't hold up at the moment and they can't get any sympathy points from the Butler game they took.  Have to show better than that to get "good loss" points.  Of the three remaining, they all have kind of middling looking schedules, except for one result: Pacific beating Adrian.  That's by far the best result amongst these three and that's going to be the reason that I pull the trigger on Pacific. 

Certainly we can quibble about why I'm putting Pacific ahead of PLU or Willamette or anybody else in the West region, but the fact is that they have a road win against a team that is probably going to sweep a much-improved MIAA.  That's impressive.  And Adrian should be regionally ranked when we get that far, which plays in Pacific's favor...for now at least. 

So that's my first peek at the field of 32.  The first one is tough...it gets much more analytical the further down the road we get- much less conjecture on my part.
Very interesting.  In the WIAC you currently have 3 undefeated teams; UW-Whitewater, Oshkosh, and Platteville.  Although UWW has been a perenial power, they lost a step last year and Oshkosh won the conference.  Platteville was projected to be the conference winner this year at the beginning of the season.   I do believe the WIAC, due to strength of conference and strength of schedule has a great chance of getting two into the post season, it will be a dog fight for the two spots.  We could very easily have a 3 way tie with all of them tied at 9-1 for the Conference Championship and the AQ.

WarhawkDad
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: d-train on October 08, 2013, 01:18:00 pm
Generally, those are the five conferences that I'd expect to get serious Pool C consideration if they have an obvious (1-loss) runner-up.  I'd predict it'll be Willamette or Pacific Lutheran 'on the discussion board' at 8-1 from the NWC (rather than Pacific - though we'll see). I understand how you are approaching this analysis from a slightly different angle (some prediction, but lots of 'as of now'). Nice job!
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: wally_wabash on October 08, 2013, 01:37:36 pm
I have a question. As Pat mentioned, Overall D-III SOS is primary criteria. Is Overall D-III record primary criteria? The reason I ask is because unless I missed something Chicago is still undefeated in regional play. Rhodes is in the SAA, South Region, and Administrative Region 3. Chicago is in the UAA (until 2015? when they join the SAA), North Region, and Adminsitrative Region 4.

I still wouldn't put Chicago in the top 3 of Pool B but just curious. Also history doesn't exactly bode well for a UAA team in this situation. Case Western Reserve went 9-0 in region in 2011(?) and lost to Rochester out of region and missed the Pool B bid.

I believe that the primary criteria still talks about in-region win-loss percentage, however, in football at least, I would say that it seems like the RACs and the national committee look at all of the D3 results.  With only 10 or sometimes 9 games to use to differentiate teams, it's hard to justify tossing out a result just because it didn't meet one of the definitions of "in-region". 

Case in point is the the CWRU situation that you bring up.  That particular instance had a secondary circumstance in that I believe Rochester was a common opponent with St. John Fisher and SJF got into the field that season despite two losses.  Results vs. common opponents are a criteria (secondary I believe) even if that opponent's record isn't factored into the SOS math. 

Very interesting.  In the WIAC you currently have 3 undefeated teams; UW-Whitewater, Oshkosh, and Platteville.  Although UWW has been a perenial power, they lost a step last year and Oshkosh won the conference.  Platteville was projected to be the conference winner this year at the beginning of the season.   I do believe the WIAC, due to strength of conference and strength of schedule has a great chance of getting two into the post season, it will be a dog fight for the two spots.  We could very easily have a 3 way tie with all of them tied at 9-1 for the Conference Championship and the AQ.

WarhawkDad

I picked Whitewater as the league champion because I think they are playing just a touch better than Oshkosh or Platteville.  After the WUStl scare, it's been beatemdown mode for the Warhawks.  But really ou can mix and match there...if I were to generalize the predictions here I would say that you'll get one of W, O, or P as an automatic qualifier and then whichever of the other two finish with one loss (probably the one that won the h2h matchup).  If they all finish with one loss, I think it gets tricky for that third team because as soon as you wedge somebody like PLU or Bethel or Moorhead inbetween the UW schools in the regional rankings, you're pretty much doomed as far as selection goes.  It's tough to imagine a scenario where any more than two teams from one region get Pool C selections. 

Generally, those are the five conferences that I'd expect to get serious Pool C consideration if they have a obvious (1-loss) runner-up.  I'd predict it'll be Willamette or Pacific Lutheran 'on the discussion board' at 8-1 from the NWC (rather than Pacific - though we'll see). I understand how you are approaching this analysis from a slightly different angle (some prediction, but lots of 'as of now'). Nice job!

Totally agree, d-train.  I like PLU to run this thing out and eventually be a slam dunk for selection, but we have to get there first.  Unfortunately, their reward is going to be a trip back to Linfield, but what can you do. 
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: ExTartanPlayer on October 08, 2013, 07:35:43 pm
I have a question. As Pat mentioned, Overall D-III SOS is primary criteria. Is Overall D-III record primary criteria? The reason I ask is because unless I missed something Chicago is still undefeated in regional play. Rhodes is in the SAA, South Region, and Administrative Region 3. Chicago is in the UAA (until 2015? when they join the SAA), North Region, and Adminsitrative Region 4.

I still wouldn't put Chicago in the top 3 of Pool B but just curious. Also history doesn't exactly bode well for a UAA team in this situation. Case Western Reserve went 9-0 in region in 2011(?) and lost to Rochester out of region and missed the Pool B bid.

I believe that the primary criteria still talks about in-region win-loss percentage, however, in football at least, I would say that it seems like the RACs and the national committee look at all of the D3 results.  With only 10 or sometimes 9 games to use to differentiate teams, it's hard to justify tossing out a result just because it didn't meet one of the definitions of "in-region". 

Case in point is the the CWRU situation that you bring up.  That particular instance had a secondary circumstance in that I believe Rochester was a common opponent with St. John Fisher and SJF got into the field that season despite two losses.  Results vs. common opponents are a criteria (secondary I believe) even if that opponent's record isn't factored into the SOS math. 

Case in point?  Really?  How punny.

Good example, though.

Very interesting.  In the WIAC you currently have 3 undefeated teams; UW-Whitewater, Oshkosh, and Platteville.  Although UWW has been a perenial power, they lost a step last year and Oshkosh won the conference.  Platteville was projected to be the conference winner this year at the beginning of the season.   I do believe the WIAC, due to strength of conference and strength of schedule has a great chance of getting two into the post season, it will be a dog fight for the two spots.  We could very easily have a 3 way tie with all of them tied at 9-1 for the Conference Championship and the AQ.

WarhawkDad

I picked Whitewater as the league champion because I think they are playing just a touch better than Oshkosh or Platteville.  After the WUStl scare, it's been beatemdown mode for the Warhawks.  But really ou can mix and match there...if I were to generalize the predictions here I would say that you'll get one of W, O, or P as an automatic qualifier and then whichever of the other two finish with one loss (probably the one that won the h2h matchup).  If they all finish with one loss, I think it gets tricky for that third team because as soon as you wedge somebody like PLU or Bethel or Moorhead inbetween the UW schools in the regional rankings, you're pretty much doomed as far as selection goes.  It's tough to imagine a scenario where any more than two teams from one region get Pool C selections. 

I also can't help but wonder if the WIAC will "eat itself" and the runner-up(s) will both end up with more than one loss.  We're taking it for granted that UWW, UWO, and UWP won't lose to anyone else in the WIAC but it's happened before...in 2011 I was really excited to see whether the committee would put in an 8-2 Oshkosh team that had two respectable losses to Mount Union and UWW in the midst of their All-Purple-Every-Year-Stagg streak, which seemed like a strong case for inclusion of an 8-2 team if there ever was one...only for them to lose to LaCrosse the next week.
Title: Re: Pool B
Post by: mck99 on October 14, 2013, 10:19:24 am
Based on Oct. 14 podcast, eight teams for three Pool B spots:

Wesley - 5-1 record, No. 2 SOS
Washington U. - 4-2 record, No. 5 SOS
Framingham State - 5-1 record, No. 29 SOS
Centre - 4-1 record, 32 SOS
Millsaps - 5-0 record, 84 SOS
Rhodes - 5-1 record, No. 99 SOS
Chicago - 4-1 record, 177 SOS
Texas Lutheran - 4-0 record, 209 SOS