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D3hockey.com => Men's hockey => Topic started by: Matthew Webb on February 13, 2018, 09:36:43 pm

Title: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Matthew Webb on February 13, 2018, 09:36:43 pm
 Men's Bracketology: Week 1 (http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/2018/feb-13)
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: spwood on February 14, 2018, 11:29:19 am
 :oNorwich @ Oswego in round 1?  Salve Regina gets Plymouth State?  Interesting first round matchups...  Hard to argue with your analysis.  Just the dreaded "fairness" of #1 Oswego having to play the defending national champs in the first round while the West #4 seed gets to stay home with a bye to the QF....
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: elbojpb on February 14, 2018, 11:14:16 pm
If (on paper) the three of the 4 best teams in the nation are in the West, then having the West teams head straight to quarters is a logical conclusion.


BTW - Appreciate the work (again) for easy consumption by those of us still mystified by this whole process.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: spwood on February 15, 2018, 08:58:02 am
If (on paper) the three of the 4 best teams in the nation are in the West, then having the West teams head straight to quarters is a logical conclusion.


BTW - Appreciate the work (again) for easy consumption by those of us still mystified by this whole process.

The problem with men's hockey is that without any meaningful cross-over, it's impossible to know how the east stacks up against the west.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on February 15, 2018, 10:42:05 am
If Norwich does not win the NEHC tournament, and lets say Hobart does, what would happen to these 2 teams for the tournament?
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: spwood on February 16, 2018, 09:00:39 am
If Norwich does not win the NEHC tournament, and lets say Hobart does, what would happen to these 2 teams for the tournament?

Well, if the Regional Rankings are any hint, Norwich's season will be over.  They weren't even ranked by the NCAA.  Hobart will probably be a higher seed if they win the NEHC tournament...
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on February 16, 2018, 12:50:37 pm
If Norwich does not win the NEHC tournament, and lets say Hobart does, what would happen to these 2 teams for the tournament?

Well, if the Regional Rankings are any hint, Norwich's season will be over.  They weren't even ranked by the NCAA.  Hobart will probably be a higher seed if they win the NEHC tournament...
Thanks for the input. For the last 3 years Hobart has earned a ranking that generated a first round NCAA home game but VERY SADLY we lost each one. Maybe we should fall enough and be seeded for an away game IF we make the tournament....although I sure would like to reverse history and get a home game and win in the first round....sounds like we need to win the NEHC tournament  to get that opportunity.
Title: 2018 Men's Bracketology Pt Deaux
Post by: elbojpb on February 21, 2018, 11:33:51 am
This made me smile "... the overall weakness of the UCHC is a complete anchor ..." which, until a couple years ago, was the buoyancy factor which helped the ECAC/W get previously thought "undeserved" bids.  My how things have changed, and not for the better.


This league seems to have the kiss of death, and motivates every team (with an option), to flee.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Matthew Webb on February 21, 2018, 12:20:50 pm
The problem with men's hockey is that without any meaningful cross-over, it's impossible to know how the east stacks up against the west.

Except as it pertains to this process, there is. The criteria. That's it. Will it always represent the actual quality comparison between any teams? No, but as far as seeding goes we know exactly how one gets compared to the other. In previous years I think the West did have three of the top four or five, but not so sure this time around. Point's resume is good but not what it has been. RNK is lower as is SOS. Though, if it wins out and finishes 21-4-3 maybe we'll see the same thing we saw last year.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology Pt Deaux
Post by: Matthew Webb on February 21, 2018, 12:24:23 pm
This made me smile "... the overall weakness of the UCHC is a complete anchor ..." which, until a couple years ago, was the buoyancy factor which helped the ECAC/W get previously thought "undeserved" bids.  My how things have changed, and not for the better.

This league seems to have the kiss of death, and motivates every team (with an option), to flee.

Ha, yeah. And to be clear I'm speaking specifically to its non-conference performance this year, which was not good and thus drags down the entire league's SOS. 23-45-11 (.361) as a league, which is worst of any conference.

Bound to improve though considering there are four new/newer teams in there...
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Matthew Webb on February 21, 2018, 12:25:05 pm
Probably should have put this here right away....

 Men's Bracketology: Week 2 (http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/2018/feb-20)
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on February 23, 2018, 12:10:36 am
Probably should have put this here right away....

 Men's Bracketology: Week 2 (http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/2018/feb-20)
Thanks for this thorough analysis. Are you going to do a forecast every week?
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Matthew Webb on February 23, 2018, 11:43:14 pm
Probably should have put this here right away....

 Men's Bracketology: Week 2 (http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/2018/feb-20)
Thanks for this thorough analysis. Are you going to do a forecast every week?

Yup, every Tuesday evening after each of the three sets of regional rankings, and then another on the evening of March 4 after all conference championships are decided.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on February 27, 2018, 03:46:53 pm
Looking forward to the next Bracketology. In your opinion if Hobart loses to Norwich, as assumed in this scenario as Norwich is the assumed Conference champ , won't that impact the final RR and wouldn't Hobart slip in the final east rankings? I am thinking they need to beat Norwich to get a home game ....which would leave Norwich out and another team gets in. I yield to your experience on this analysis. I just didn't want to assume if they lose, that Hobart would get a first round home game, although they should still get a road berth at this point. 
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: spwood on February 28, 2018, 12:51:30 pm
Looking forward to the next Bracketology. In your opinion if Hobart loses to Norwich, as assumed in this scenario as Norwich is the assumed Conference champ , won't that impact the final RR and wouldn't Hobart slip in the final east rankings? I am thinking they need to beat Norwich to get a home game ....which would leave Norwich out and another team gets in. I yield to your experience on this analysis. I just didn't want to assume if they lose, that Hobart would get a first round home game, although they should still get a road berth at this point.

Because of Adrian, it's likely that Hobart and the lowest SUNYAC team (Geneseo or Buffalo St) are going to play in the first round.  I suppose it's possible Geneseo, with a win and Hobart loss, could move ahead of the Statesmen.  In that scenario, Hobart would be playing at Geneseo (or possibly even at Oswego).
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on February 28, 2018, 02:14:39 pm
Looking forward to the next Bracketology. In your opinion if Hobart loses to Norwich, as assumed in this scenario as Norwich is the assumed Conference champ , won't that impact the final RR and wouldn't Hobart slip in the final east rankings? I am thinking they need to beat Norwich to get a home game ....which would leave Norwich out and another team gets in. I yield to your experience on this analysis. I just didn't want to assume if they lose, that Hobart would get a first round home game, although they should still get a road berth at this point.

Because of Adrian, it's likely that Hobart and the lowest SUNYAC team (Geneseo or Buffalo St) are going to play in the first round.  I suppose it's possible Geneseo, with a win and Hobart loss, could move ahead of the Statesmen.  In that scenario, Hobart would be playing at Geneseo (or possibly even at Oswego).
Thanks,this makes sense. Still hoping for a win in Vermont and breaking the home ice first round disappointments from the last 3 years.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: NU56 on March 03, 2018, 10:59:19 am
I think Hobart will be in win or lose at Norwich.  Altho, I'm on the other side of the fence and hope Norwich can solve Hobart tonight.  NU56
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: gbpuckfan on March 03, 2018, 09:31:44 pm
Nichols wins... now what?

Does the SNC win make 4 pods of 3 more or less likely?
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on March 03, 2018, 09:48:59 pm
Hobart plays complete game and beats Norwich 3-0, as Frank Oplinger was awesome in goal.....although only watched it on the internet, the facility for Norwich looks amazing..now that the Statesmen have made 4 consecutive NCAA tourney's, maybe we can put some coin together and get a facility as nice as Norwich's...congrats to Norwich for winning the regular season and for being the reigning D3 Champ. Looking forward to future  games in what should be a great rivalry . Hoping Hobart beats the 3 year jinx and finally wins an anticipated NCAA home game next week.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on March 03, 2018, 10:00:03 pm
So, I noticed that New England lost tonight, does that mean Hobart has a chance to move up to #2 in East and get a bye?
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: spwood on March 03, 2018, 11:10:37 pm
So, I noticed that New England lost tonight, does that mean Hobart has a chance to move up to #2 in East and get a bye?

Possibly host Geneseo in the first round with the winner headed to Michigan to face Adrian in a QF?  Courtesy the NCAA travel rule?
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on March 03, 2018, 11:49:51 pm
I thought that 500 mile rule was a dumb for a 12 team field....if that is what happens and UNE gets a much easier path after losing tournament , I may start to get a complex...in MBB we lost in the LL tournament and got bounced from the NCAA after a 21-5 season...but geography in MBB is easier because there are 64 teams, with 12 teams the rule has greater impact
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: gbpuckfan on March 04, 2018, 07:42:29 pm
http://www.d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/2018/final-projection
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: Bartman on March 04, 2018, 08:54:42 pm
Nice job on the final bracket forecast. Some close calls, but I think the COP for the final Pool C makes sense with Trinity edging out Oswego. Selfishly, I hope Hobart does get the 2E because going all the way to Adrian didn't look promising. Although if Hobart plays Nichols, they look really hot, and  another home opener loss would be depressing.  Overall, it is logical with all the criteria complexity , now let's see what the committee does.
Title: Re: 2018 Men's Bracketology
Post by: peteSNCFan on March 07, 2018, 09:51:31 am
Hobart plays complete game and beats Norwich 3-0, as Frank Oplinger was awesome in goal.....although only watched it on the internet, the facility for Norwich looks amazing..now that the Statesmen have made 4 consecutive NCAA tourney's, maybe we can put some coin together and get a facility as nice as Norwich's...congrats to Norwich for winning the regular season and for being the reigning D3 Champ. Looking forward to future  games in what should be a great rivalry . Hoping Hobart beats the 3 year jinx and finally wins an anticipated NCAA home game next week.
I have been to the Norwich arena twice....very nice on campus facility...