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D3soccer.com => Men's soccer => Topic started by: bestfancle on August 28, 2018, 12:09:17 pm

Title: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: bestfancle on August 28, 2018, 12:09:17 pm
2018 OAC Preseason Poll: https://www.oac.org/sports/wsoc/2018-19/releases/2018__Soccer_poll.pdf

Otterbein Preview: https://otterbeincardinals.com/news/2018/8/14/mens-soccer-striving-to-carry-over-success-from-magical-run.aspx

JCU Preview: https://jcusports.com/news/2018/8/23/2018-jcu-fall-sports-preview-mens-soccer.aspx

Capital Preview: http://athletics.capital.edu/sports/msoc/2018-19/preview18

Ohio Northern Preview: http://www.onusports.com/sports/msoc/2018-19/releases/20180823k3vl5w

Heidelberg Preview: http://athletics.heidelberg.edu/sports/msoc/2018-19/releases/20180814gios3x

NCAC Preseason Poll: http://www.northcoast.org/sports/msoc/2018-19/releases/20180820jk9rtv

Kenyon Preview: https://athletics.kenyon.edu/news/2018/8/8/mens-soccer-lords-ranked-no-22-in-preseason-poll.aspx

OWU Preview: https://battlingbishops.com/news/2018/8/28/MS_2018pre_1.aspx




Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on August 29, 2018, 04:12:35 pm
NCAC Preseason #1 and #2

Kenyon - 96 points

OWU - 94 points

Kenyon - 6 First Place Votes

OWU - 4 First Place Votes

That is pretty close.  Will that be the case on the field?

Will Kenyon continue their dominance?

Will the OWU 2016/2017 class play together enough to win the NCAC outright and do something in the NCAA tournament?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on August 29, 2018, 04:33:32 pm
Kenyon graduated some strong senior leadership and performers, so it will be interesting to see how they fill those needs. Kenyon plays Carnegie Mellon this weekend, OWU plays Wheaton (Ill) so those games will be interesting to follow.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on August 30, 2018, 07:21:25 pm
Yes, Kenyon has graduated some very good senior players and leadership, however, the current crop of seniors are good, with the sophomores having the experience of a great campaign in 2017.

Kenyon actually plays John Carroll then Carnegie Mellon.  That is a tough start to the season for Kenyon if JCU and CMU performance carry over from last year.

OWU, should have less of a challenge with Wash U. Wheaton, will be interesting for OWU.

The OWU juniors should provide good leadership, compared to last year.

All games will be streamed.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on August 30, 2018, 07:24:39 pm
On another note. Although, focused on the NCAC, the OAC teams were outstanding last year.

Any thoughts, if their teams will have repeat performances this season?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: bestfancle on August 31, 2018, 08:03:27 am
On another note. Although, focused on the NCAC, the OAC teams were outstanding last year.

Any thoughts, if their teams will have repeat performances this season?

Overall, I do not think the OAC will be as strong as last season, although their top teams could do just as well.

I expect a drop off for JCU. Their defense comes back pretty strong, but they lost their three best players going forward. A draw against Kenyon today would be a great result for them. I expect them to beat Denison on Sunday.

Otterbein seems to be the team to watch in the OAC. The 2nd year coach, Jason Griffiths, did an amazing job in his first season. I've never seen a coach be able to impact a program so quickly, and Otterbein thrives off of set pieces. They return most of their players.

I feel that ONU is primed to come back this year as well, just from the pure fact that Coach Ridenour can't be held down for long. Both their forwards are returning, along with many mids. They may struggle defensively at the start of the season, but ONU is notorious for rigorous film study unlike any other team in the OAC.

I don't expect much out of Capital, but they proved me wrong last year, so who knows. Marietta should be middle of the road as well. BW will be better than expected, but would be lucky to make it to an OAC semi-final. Heidleburg and Mount are young. Wilmington and Muskingum will be bottom dwellers per usual.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: bestfancle on August 31, 2018, 08:09:55 am
It would be harsh not to mention Case Western Reserve. The team returns 7 starters and should be a challenge for all of the NCAC and OAC teams they face this year. https://athletics.case.edu/sports/msoc/2018-19/releases/20180827g6as86

They open up with Marietta and Mount Union, who they should handle.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on August 31, 2018, 03:07:33 pm
If I remember CWRU had the hardest SOS last year.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: MidwestGrinder on August 31, 2018, 03:17:59 pm
Kenyon graduated some strong senior leadership and performers, so it will be interesting to see how they fill those needs. Kenyon plays Carnegie Mellon this weekend, OWU plays Wheaton (Ill) so those games will be interesting to follow.

I believe this is the year OWU begins to take back over the NCAC. Kenyon's dominance from 2014-2016 was largely due to their extraordinarily strong 2016 and 2017 classes that turned them into a top 5 nationally ranked program. Kenyon took a step back last year and didn't look the same after their 2016 class departed and I expect them to take another step back this year with the departure of the 2017 class. Kenyon dropped 6 games in 2017, the same amount they dropped in their 2015 and 2016 seasons combined (Not to mention the 2015/2016 drops were to teams like Tufts and Calvin whereas the 2017 team tied Marietta). OWU on the other hand were on par with Kenyon in 2014, slightly worse in 2015, and completely outclassed in 2016. However, OWU seems to be on the rise by winning the NCAC tournament last season. It just seems to me OWU has been ascending while Kenyon has been descending. I could be completely wrong but I think this is the year OWU becomes king again.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: blooter442 on August 31, 2018, 04:03:28 pm
Well now, Kenyon up 3-0 on John Carroll. Pretty resounding scoreline, although it appeared to be a 1-0 game until 2 goals in 2 minutes changed the complexion.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on August 31, 2018, 05:06:22 pm
Midwest Grinder, I would tend to agree with you in broad strokes.

OWU won the national title in 2011 and in 2012 and 2013 had teams ranked #1 for some or most of the season IIRC, and certainly had talent to match the 2011 edition.  A 2013 Messiah-OWU tourney game (which would have been played at OWU) would have been a great one but Rose-Hulman pulled the major upset on Roy Rike.  The 2014 team was still very, very good, and indeed made the Final Four. 

Kenyon's rise was built around the 2015 class with Justice and company (with an initial frosh class of 20), and then taken a level higher by the 2016 and 2017 classes.  Kenyon came back on the national stage in 2013 when the Lords beat Ohio Northern and Wheaton (Ill) and took Messiah to the wire on Shoemaker Field.  In 2014, Kenyon was stronger overall than OWU IMHO and was unlucky to draw OWU in the Sweet 16 just 2 weeks after finally beating OWU for the first time in years.  And Sam Justice tried to play on one leg.  A magical season with a horrifically bitter ending.  An OT goal from 40 yards against PS-Behrend and a win in (I think) PKs against Calvin in a game played at Hope College helped OWU reach that game, and then they got by Christopher Newport in PKs in a game played in 50 mph winds in the Elite 8.   OWU was still good in 2015 but Kenyon was better and Kenyon was definitely stronger in 2016 and 2017.

I would pick OWU this year myself.  OWU has had young talent that now should be matured.  And Kenyon lost Carmona, apparently to transfer, which is an enormous loss since Carmona arguably would have been the best player in the NCAC (if not Lowry).  Your post was a little deceptive, though.  Yes, 6 setbacks if you count draws but only 3 losses.  I don't think there is any question that the outcome with Otterbein would have been different if Myers had not torn his ACL the game before versus Transy.  Even so, Kenyon dominated play and outshot Otterbein 19-6.  I would agree that last year's edition was a hair (or two) weaker than the prior couple of years, but they had the best NCAA draw they've had in the past 5 years.  Major missed opportunity but they lost their chance to win the whole thing when Myers went down.  I get why you say Kenyon was descending but I'm not sure I see why you saw OWU as ascending....yes, they won a PK shootout where both teams were awful but without that "win" they weren't going to get a bid for the first time in forever, after a year when they finished out of the top 4 in the conference.

I would expect OWU and Kenyon to be neck and neck this year, with the nod going to OWU.  We'll see what Brown does with Kenyon over the next 2-3 years and whether the Lords can sustain a legit heavyweight to heavyweight rivalry.  Will also be interesting to see what happens with OWU if and when Martin retires. 

And watch out for Wabash.  That coach seems to have something going in Crawfordsville.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on August 31, 2018, 05:40:40 pm
Merry New Year everyone!! Just saw the JCU-Kenyon game, sitting in a bar in Granville awaiting the Denison-Carnegie Mellon game (edit - my bad).

JCU lost a lot last year due to graduation. Then Pariente transfers to Cleve St. Who will pick up the scoring for them is a huge question. Today senior leaders Rozsits and Kannakkannitt (check the spelling - may had missed 7 k’s, a’s or t’s) out with injuries; starting wing back gets the flu this morning - they started 8 freshman and sophomores. But Kenyon looked great and got to use many of their younger players for a better part of the game. #22 and #29 are slightly built but blazingly fast and quick. And their high press caused trouble for JCU who just couldn’t complete enough passes to break out and attack.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on August 31, 2018, 05:52:14 pm
@domino1195 . . . and that would be the Broadway Pub, I suppose?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on August 31, 2018, 06:08:50 pm
Last one left in town!

I lied - just checked into Three Tigers for one more before the games
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on August 31, 2018, 07:54:19 pm
Denison 1-0 at half off corner. Dropping 7 behind the ball- CMU lots of possession - winning corners - Denison is bunkered in
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 01, 2018, 06:37:56 am
Heart-breaking loss for Denison. They absorbed and defended for a majority of the match but CMU finally got the two goals they needed. Nice contributions from new players - they should be an improved team over last year’s squad. CMU very skilled -many players with deft touch in tight spaces. Kenyon will challenge tgem to be quicker with their press - should be a very even affair.

Capital jumps out to a lead 24 seconds into the match and dominates for 50 minutes, but Mother Nature wins on the night.  I believe NCAA requires 75 minutes before a game us official as does the MLS. They have Wabash on Sunday.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 02, 2018, 07:12:35 pm
94 degrees on the turf - give credit to both Wabash and Capital. Both teams had leads, fell behind and retook the lead with Capital gaining the last comeback. 3-3 when Wabash went down to 10 men - about 20-25 minutes left in the second half.

Cap started strong and maintained had bulk of possession - a throw in that was mishandled by Cap’s defense gave Wabash the lead.  Cap fights back to take a 2-1 lead - then Wabash grabs two to go ahead at half - the third a beauty of a free kick.  Wabash has a early second half goal (off a corner) erased due to a foul.

6 of the 7 goals from set pieces. I think both teams need to tighten up their marking!!!!
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on September 11, 2018, 10:46:06 pm
Kenyon Ranked #8 and OWU Ranked #25 in today's NCAA D3 polls.

Kenyon and OWU should have be able to muster past Marietta and Ohio Northern, respectively, this week.  However, due to OWU field conditions, their match will be at a local high school field near OWU.

Both teams have looked good, OWU seems to have better offense this year.  We will see how the defense works when they play against a stronger attack.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 12, 2018, 12:54:25 pm
We know not to place too much stock in preseason and early season rankings - the issues have been discussed at length.  One thing that is consistently "off" about the early season rankings is the lack of accounting for the loss of dominant senior classes and individual leaders.  John Carroll, Otterbein and Geneva are three examples that jump right out.  Even if the graduated seniors weren't starters, the loss of their leadership - in practices and games - takes time to rebuild.  Some of these teams expected to do better than their current records will rebound - some may find this to be a long season.  Still too early to say  . . .

Thoughts on conferences and post season:

CMU looks very good right now; Case appears to have improved over last two years.  Thomas More plays a very strong schedule - kind of surprised they didn't go Pool B - but if they maintain a winning record against a schedue  expect to be over .600 they will grab a NCAA bid.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Flying Weasel on September 12, 2018, 02:00:43 pm
One thing that is consistently "off" about the early season rankings is the lack of accounting for the loss of dominant senior classes and individual leaders.  John Carroll, Otterbein and Geneva are three examples that jump right out.  Even if the graduated seniors weren't starters, the loss of their leadership - in practices and games - takes time to rebuild.  Some of these teams expected to do better than their current records will rebound - some may find this to be a long season.  Still too early to say  . . .

Why should early season rankings account for the loss of dominant senior classes and individual leaders?  Rankings are not projections or predictions; they are an assessment of results and performances to date.  If a team is not playing at a Top 25 level in the early part of the season (or at any time), the reasons for that really shouldn't impact their ranking at all. It's the same thing when a star player suffers a season-ending injury, their team's ranking for the remainder of the season shouldn't be based on how well voters think they would be playing if their star player hadn't gotten injured.  Just the same, a team's ranking in the first few weeks shouldn't be based on how well voters think they will be playing by the end of the season.  That doesn't make the early rankings "off" unless you want them to be something that they are not.

Thomas More plays a very strong schedule - kind of surprised they didn't go Pool B - but if they maintain a winning record against a schedue  expect to be over .600 they will grab a NCAA bid.

Clarification: while Thomas More did not opt to play their final D-III season as an independent, they did go Pool B by joining a conference without an automatic berth.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 12, 2018, 05:14:15 pm
When I saw JCU and Otterbein in the preseason top 25 I said - NFW. I even told an Otterbein player the same. I saw both Otterbein and JCU play. The “off” part is how much change there is from preseason to the time play gets underway.

We’ve this discussion countless times about the “history” of a program influencing rankings.  If rankings were truly based on performance ytd: explain OWU’s higher ranking in the DIII poll versus Capital?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: blooter442 on September 12, 2018, 08:59:43 pm
Well then...1-2-1 ONU which just got walloped 7-2 by Calvin is leading OWU 2-0 in the second half.

EDIT: Calvin score was actually 9-2; ONU wins 3-0 against OWU.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: blooter442 on September 12, 2018, 09:04:42 pm
Case does it again in OT, beating JCU 2-1. #17 who assisted on the winning goal then went and shushed the JCU crowd (not just for a second, but an extended period of time). On the face of it, I didn't think that was necessary, although maybe he was getting heckled, in which case fair enough. Another big win for Case.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Mr.Right on September 12, 2018, 09:08:50 pm
Love the shush....always gets peoples blood boiling...Expect JCU in 2019 to take the kids legs out. Amherst Assistant Coach Derek Shea did the shush when he played for North Adams St(MCLA) against Williams but he shushed the and taunted the bench after scoring a goal...Some of those Lax/Soccer players sitting on the bench FLIPPED and were held back but in the day you used to have some Lax/Socceer guys on the bench almost like ringers...Anyway Williams thought about that for a year until they played again unfortunately Shea had graduated.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: blooter442 on September 12, 2018, 09:10:57 pm
Love the shush....always gets peoples blood boiling...Expect JCU in 2019 to take the kids legs out. Amherst Assistant Coach Derek Shea did the shush when he played for North Adams St(MCLA) against Williams but he shushed the and taunted the bench after scoring a goal...Some of those Lax/Soccer players sitting on the bench FLIPPED and were held back but in the day you used to have some Lax/Socceer guys on the bench almost like ringers...Anyway Williams thought about that for a year until they played again unfortunately Shea had graduated.

I don't mind it if the crowd has been heckling a player all game. I just don't think it's necessary if it's unprovoked. We were giving Rashid the business in the '13 Sweet 16 and then he scored the 2nd goal to clinch it and did it to us...I was like, eh, fair enough, we deserved it.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on September 13, 2018, 04:20:06 pm
Ohio Northern (ONU) blanked OWU yesterday 3-0.

OWU was basically outplayed. OWU seemed to be a step behind ONU.

Defense blew it on the last goal. Centerback tried to slide tackle right when attacker shot the ball then, ONU had a clean rebound shot at the goal. Score.

OWU is in trouble if they do not pick-up their energy.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 14, 2018, 03:23:39 pm
Something to consider:  with ONU coming off that blow-out - they were going to be over-the-top with energy. After the 4th Calvin goal ONU subbed 7 (SEVEN!) starters - 22nd minute.  They were embarrassed by Calvin and by playing less than half of the first half.  After Calvin's 7th goal 5 of those same starters were pulled from the game.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on September 15, 2018, 11:53:52 am
Something to consider:  with ONU coming off that blow-out - they were going to be over-the-top with energy. After the 4th Calvin goal ONU subbed 7 (SEVEN!) starters - 22nd minute.  They were embarrassed by Calvin and by playing less than half of the first half.  After Calvin's 7th goal 5 of those same starters were pulled from the game.
Very good point.

I did not watch the Calvin match. By subbing that many starters, I can imagine that generated some motivation for the next match. Unfortunately, OWU ran right into it.

OWU did not match the energy. They need to do a better job.

Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 15, 2018, 03:21:06 pm
Tonight will be interesting. I’ll be there wearing a yellow and orange tie-dye shirt. Going to try to find Harry Kirsch and sit with him.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 15, 2018, 06:56:30 pm
Except the game ISN’T at Rike field and Case - a fantastic school - can’t provide a video stream. So i’ll sit here in downtown Delaware and wait until someone figures it out . . .
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 18, 2018, 04:06:47 pm
Good Lord!  Grove City should be up 2-0 5 minutes in. Missed two sitters inside the 6!!!!
Second half they miss two more - at least hitting the post on the last attempt.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 18, 2018, 06:40:45 pm
Grove City gets a PK for their goal - they were dominant from the opening whistle - time of possession was easily 60-65% But lads - you GOT to finish those chances.  Centre offered about 5 minutes of resistance before the field tipped in Kenyon's favor.  Still they had the game at 0-0 at half but Kenyon's quality is too great.  CMU did well last night - they played their game and forced Allegheny into countless turnovers in their defensive third.  Kenyon has more going for them - they can attack and create  - and defend - and I give them the edge as best eam in the GL right now.

Looking forward to Friday's GC and CMU match.  The PRAC is still theirs to take - Geneva got a nice win against PSU-B last week - was not impressed with PSU today at all.  Still they have the inside track for the AMCC - the 6-1-1 record of Mt. Aloyisius is against a SOS of 380 . . .

NCAC looks to be separating the haves from have-nots - top three teams getting the job done.  Conference play yet to come but Kenyon and DePauw's GA are impressive.

OAC is another story - one log jam with the top 8 teams looking for consistency.  Mt. Union and Cap have played most consistently - kind of surprised to see Mt. Union get ranked - yes they are 5-0 with ZERO goals against; but other than that opening game against CWRU (where they were outplayed except for the PK) they have played no one. We'll see what they do against Geneva (although that is a home game).  Cap suffered their first loss and shutout of they year at Case.  A two hour ride turned into 4 as their bus got a flat tire and they sat in a rest area for over an hour.  They looked as flat as the bus tire in the second half. 

Saw Otterbein vs TM - Bein had the better of play at times - just no plot once they go into the final third.  Of concern were two shots by TM in the first half striking the posts - both over 30 yards - the second from beyond 35. Keeper look very slow reacting . . .  Also saw JCU and OWU once I found where the game was being played.  Can't say these two losses by OWU were "home" games - but this JCU game was very evenly played - a grind as I like to call them.  JCU has a rematch with CMU Sunday - that memorable game from last year - JCU tying it with 2 second left.

Saw part of Thomas More and Kenyon - they are feisty but Kenyon is Kenyon.  Very Good.  TM have ONU tomorrow at ONU - must watch for GL fans.

The Heartland is in disarray as the perennial top three are struggling.  Rose-Hulman is the "best" of the lot right now, but with DePauw and ONU up this week  . . . luckily both of those games are at home.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 19, 2018, 09:47:25 pm
OWU with a dominant performance against Bein - Bein and Heidelberg are shells of the teams they were last year -sorry lads. Cap eeks out a win at Wooster missing three starters. If I had a nickel for the number of times Cap players lost 50/50 battles in the center of the field I’d have a lot of nickels. Cap is a good team but lack the toughness to win tight games. We’ll see what happens Sat vs TM . . . 
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 21, 2018, 05:22:34 pm
Pretty sure I saw Dorothy and Toto drift by the field at Grove City.  Storm front moving through Ohio/PA right now - very strong winds at the field. CMU - their lines stay connected, they apply pressure and capitalize.  The Allegheny game - now today.  But you have to admire the clincal passes and finishing.  That first goal didn't seem like their was much in it except the striker hits it first time, perfectly placed - gave the defender no chance to even attempt to block it.  Second goal - turnover and a great through-ball.  A very solid team.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 22, 2018, 04:35:49 pm
Wooster playing defense for 70 minutes conceded the tying goal under 1 minute. Going to OT - hey cameraman: try to stay up with the play!

Wooster down to 10 men for the second OT
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on September 23, 2018, 04:50:31 pm
CMU and JCU draw 0-0 in game that really didn’t much flow to it -  31 total fouls and 6 YC. You’d think a game with these stats would have been very choppy - it wasn’t. CMU did have the better chances at goal but the final score is a fair result based on what I saw.

Otterbein and Hanover also went into OT tied at 0-0. Hanover forward counters 1 v 4, splits the last two defenders and rolls the ball into the far lower corner.

The OAC seems to be separating the top 4-5 teams from the bottom.  ONU look to be fully rebounded from that Calvin game , JCU getting all their players healthy, Capital scoring lots of goals, Mt. Union yet to concede.

Tomorrow’s Mt. Union game vs Geneva will their toughest opponent since opening game. DePauw has Thomas More - both these games at 5pm. Trying to figure out DePauw - maybe they are susceptible to let-downs?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on September 26, 2018, 08:19:03 pm
Thomas More/ Denison is 1-1 about 15 minutes in to the second half. Scoreless at the half, then quick Denison goal called offsides, followed by Thomas More goal, followed by Denison goal to tie it up.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on September 26, 2018, 09:06:45 pm
And that's it, Denison scores in the first minute of OT, 2-1, over Thomas More.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Flying Weasel on September 26, 2018, 09:26:19 pm
Wow!  Case Western beats Kenyon 3-0.  That will shake up the rankings.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: NESCAC43 on September 26, 2018, 09:43:16 pm
Wow!  Case Western beats Kenyon 3-0.  That will shake up the rankings.

Oh my. Did anyone watch and mind telling us how it went? Wanted to watch this one as it was the only matchup with two top 25 teams but had to take the kids to practice.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Mr.Right on September 26, 2018, 11:03:52 pm
Check Case's website...All 3 Goals are up and Kenyon's defense on all 3 left alot to be desired.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 02, 2018, 08:56:05 pm
CMU handling PSU-B. If you analyze games against, like opponents results, etc. - you’ll be stuck in arevolving door. There are 8-10 teams that have a chance to make the post season from the GL. CMU has moved to the top of the pack IMO; not sold on Case as #2 - has had the benefit of home cooking on their key games. Kenyon and OWU are even at get top of the NCAC.  The OAC is wide open - Mt Union gives up multiple goals tomorrow at JCU, but they play stout defense otherwise. Grove City should take the one bid from the PRaC - I watched Geneva vs Mt Union - they played a much better second half - but if consistency holds GC is the team.

Toughness. Sorry to say - but in a fairly even top tier the toughest team wins. Gut check time for the lads.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 06, 2018, 05:56:49 pm
Wednesday night, Sept. 26th seemed like a huge turning point in GL.....OWU winning big away at Capital, and CWRU drubbing Kenyon at home while CMU arguably was top of the region.

OWU does appear to be on one of their usual runs (after an early stumble or two) and likely headed for their 78th consecutive NCAA appearance.  Kenyon rebounded today with a very solid 4-0 road win at Wabash.  OWU's only tough games remaining are at home, except for the Kenyon tilt that will likely determine the NCAC regular season crown.  Kenyon has won 3 straight NCAC road games and has a favorable schedule except for another trip to Indiana versus DePauw (who had a potentially devastating loss at home to Denison).

Most significantly, CWRU lost at home to NYU and has a brutal remaining schedule.  CMU lost at home today to Brandeis.  No shame there, but that also could be very costly.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 08, 2018, 07:52:08 am
An oddity with OWU's back-to-back losses was both "home" games were played on turf - one at a local HS and the JCU game on the football field at OWU.  From the opening whistle OWU put Cap on their heels - I think that Kenyon OWU game will be a classic.

Case - 11 home games vs 7 away - they have had the benefit of playing difficult GL teams at home. Pre-conference schedule now weaker than it might have been preseason.  Watched some of CMU this weekend - just a hard-fought battle that could have gone either way.  Same for OWU-JCU, JCU-Capital, Capital-Case.  There's a group of GL teams that are very evenly matched.

I mentioned early that I was puzzled by DePauw.  But their SOS has also gone south and - now that we have a base of games to compare relative results - I tip Denison to take 4th. For Denison - I can understand the bad loss at JCU - emotionally flat after leading CMU up to the 85th minute and then losing with less than 10 seconds in the 2nd OT.  But they have played tougher teams and have been in most of those games.

Grove City gets a scare from Wash-Jeff.  Odd goal from WJ - dipping shot over the keeper's outstretched arm - maybe looking ahead to this week's game against Geneva? 

Mt. Union drops two straight in OT - misses a PK in OT at Wilmington, then concedes a PK a minute later.  ONU having troubles scoring - in the shutout loss at BW they had the statistical advantage, and only scoring 2 at Muskingum??? Otterbein has been in all their games - not getting the breaks they did last year.  JCU on Wednesday at home.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 09, 2018, 09:03:37 pm
In between Conn Coll-Amherst and Tufts-Babson, I caught the two OTs with OWU and DePauw.  No doubt OWU is disappointed with a draw after outshooting DPU 25-4 (or 24-5), but I was very impressed.  Looked like a controlled scrimmage of 8 v 6 for OWU.  A lot of talent, typical OWU skill and possession, and also some size and physicality in a few key spots.  In addition to creating good chances from the run of play they looked very dangerous on free kicks (even long ones) and corners.  Definitely looked like a NCAA tourney team that will be a tough out now that the team is dominated more by upperclassmen.

BTW, Andrew Gold must be in his 8th season for DePauw.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 10, 2018, 03:39:32 pm
OWU's tenacity to pursue and dispossess their opponent of the ball is as strong as I've seen it it years.  They take the body - upper torso contact - all game long.  When a team does what DePauw did last night - bunker in - a 0-0 result will happen.

Next Wednesday's game at Kenyon is listed as a 7:30 start ?? Playing on the football turf??
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 10, 2018, 04:38:44 pm
99% sure that is an error...I think Kenyon website says 3:30.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 10, 2018, 06:28:27 pm
Thought I had a double header on my future with Denison and Wabash first. Will still be at Kenyon next Wed.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: JJRock on October 14, 2018, 09:47:02 am
CWRU has a big game today, to say the least, against Chicago.  I'm very interested to see how they fare. Coach Bianco was by far my favorite coach that we met during my son's round of visits 3.5 years ago. Very organized, he told us and showed us his plans to be a top team looks like his plans are coming to fruition. Doesn't surprise me that they are doing well. Too bad my son didn't like the split campus at CWRU, he didn't like crossing Euclid Ave., what can I say 17 year old boy not raised in the city. I'll be quietly rooting for Spartans today. ;D
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 17, 2018, 11:23:52 am
Big day in the NCAC today as OWU visits Kenyon and Wabash visits Denison. 1vs2, 3vs4.  These 4 could be the teams that make it to the NCAC tourney, with DePauw very much in the mix.  And these teams all have competitive games ahead of them with 4 games to go - I'd think OWU and Kenyon would need major meltdowns to not finish 1 and 2.  I also think they'll be in the NCAA tournament barring said same meltdown.

The OAC has several evenly-matched teams in the top 5-6.  In some respects JCU has the difficult part of their conference schedule out of the way. ONU has Cap and Mt Union yet to play, and Wilmington is the dark horse in the mix - they "should" make it into the conference tourney.  Otterbein has three very difficult games left - two on the road.  I don't think there is an at-large bid for the OAC this year, and given the balance at the top, the conference tourney ought to be interesting.

Not going to be a lot of at-large bids for the GL this year.  Grove City and PSU-B need to take care of business - PSU-B recalls all too well what happens when you don't win the AQ in a weak conference.  GC has had too fine a year to miss out - but everyone else in their conference will be trying to steal their bid come PRaC tourney time.

Case and CMU have good chances for at-large bids - Case with a chance to win the AQ.  CMU has to avoid the late season swoon that caused them to miss the NCAA's last year; and Case has thrived on home cooking but finish the season with three straight road conference games after one more non-conference game. 



Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Mr.Right on October 17, 2018, 01:15:18 pm
I can see Case getting a Pool C especially with that monster Win v Chicago but man the 1 game I saw them play at Brandeis I was not all that impressed with them in attack. CMU right now IMO is in trouble. They are 8-3-2 and only 1-3-0 in the UAA with a Draw v Kenyon and a Win v Lycoming but that is it. They have some difficult games remaining at UR and at Emory plus v Case. I thought CMU was a more talented side than Case but again I have only seen these teams 1 game apiece so maybe it was a one off. I do not expect Emory to go 0-7-0 in the UAA even though they are really struggling right now. If CMU loses to UR and Emory they will be finished.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on October 17, 2018, 02:08:50 pm
Didn't Case beat Kenyon 3-0?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Mr.Right on October 17, 2018, 02:12:44 pm
Yup....All I am saying is that in the Brandeis game they looked absolutely anemic offensively...Like I said it could have been a one off because they do gave some impressive results and have an NCAA resume for sure...Just thought they did not look as good as Case BUT I have only seen them once each so I could have seen an off game
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Christan Shirk on October 17, 2018, 04:00:36 pm
GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 17, 2018

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Case Western Reserve
11-2-1
0.607
--
11-2-1
--
2.
Kenyon
11-1-1
0.572
--
11-1-1
--
3.
Capital
10-3-0
0.595
--
10-3-0
--
4.
Ohio Wesleyan
10-2-1
0.563
--
10-2-1
--
5.
Carnegie Mellon
8-3-2
0.647
--
8-3-2
--
6.
John Carroll
8-4-1
0.626
--
8-4-1
--
7.
Mount Union
10-2-0
0.525
--
10-2-0
--
8.
Ohio Northern
9-4-1
0.540
--
9-4-1
--
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Mr.Right on October 17, 2018, 05:50:16 pm
hmmm...Did Kenyon cut down those trees or something looks different with this field? Either way should make for a windier field and btw those fields in the back look real nice...must be their practice fields but those look better than most game fields
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 17, 2018, 06:36:21 pm
hmmm...Did Kenyon cut down those trees or something looks different with this field? Either way should make for a windier field and btw those fields in the back look real nice...must be their practice fields but those look better than most game fields

I haven't seen it but found this info.  Maybe Domino1195 can tell us.  I think you're right about the trees.

Mavec Field is the home stadium for Kenyon's men's and women's soccer programs, as well as the women's lacrosse program. Long regarded as one of the best collegiate soccer fields in Ohio, it is known for its great playing surface on the 120 x 75-yard pitch.

Created in 1975 with funds provided by Bruce Mavec '72 and other members of the Mavec family, the field has been the site for numerous NCAA Division III tournament contests and was recently upgraded with new bleachers and new World Cup style goals. Additionally, a new scoreboard and perimeter fencing were added to the facility. Two more full-sized fields, adjacent to Mavec, are used for varsity practice sessions.

More than 200,000 square feet of practice space has also been created this summer for the successful men's and women's soccer teams and other Kenyon sports teams. The new fields use the same sod as many pro sports fields. Their surface matches that of Mavec Field, which was resurfaced last year. Mavec also has a new parking lot, to reduce parking on nearby grass.

https://athletics.kenyon.edu/news/2017/7/20/general-mavec-renovations-near-completion.aspx

Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 17, 2018, 06:43:26 pm
Tough result for Kenyon to swallow today but losing of course would have been even worse.  Made some of the same mistakes that are beyond my comprehension that they made against CWRU.  Play weak square passes in the defensive third and around the 18 repeatedly and you will pay, and the GK who overall does well insists on passing out short and they often get in a bind, in addition to some wild out of position action that leaves them totally vulnerable.  Also have to finish point-blank chances when you get them.  If they can clean up all that stuff they do have impressive depth that will be more matured by the tournament if they can qualify.  The draw puts a ton of pressure on Kenyon for a very difficult early (12:00 pm) road game Saturday at DePauw.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 17, 2018, 06:45:52 pm
Yep - Kenyon cut them down. As a Cap fan, who’s team had a difficult trip to play Case and still took them to OT: there is a lot of equality in the GL. I hope Case does well but I think they drop 2 of their last three. CMU gutted after the Chicago game - 18-22 y.o. boys are all about emotion. Don’t fault them for their loss - but with a week off we’ll see if they are last year’s team or one with more grit.

As a lifelong soccer player, referee and soccer dad - there is a lot of parity in the GL. The grittiest team: OWU. Not the best talent but they win the Monty Python Black Knight award: None shall pass. I back them to be in the sweet 16. I cannot appreciate their grit any more than I did today. While Calvin should advance out of our expanded region (making assumptions about a final four team from the Midwest) to the final four - if OWU upsets them I will not see that as an upset.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 17, 2018, 06:54:02 pm
Yep - Kenyon had some sitters that needed to be put away. I tire explaining to freshman parents: where did the pretty game go? It is about grit. OWU and - IMO - CMU - have it. Kenyon is in the mix - I’m uncomfortable about their central defenders in a tight game.  JCU has a culture that understands grit - as does ONU.  ONU has too many flaws - JCU is interesting. Capital needs consistent grit as they showed in the JCU game. Right now they’re too pretty to win gritty games
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 17, 2018, 09:32:19 pm
Interesting day in the GL. NCAC results fair - DePauw’s OT win vs Wittenberg not impressive - I think the current top 4 are the 4 that make the tourney.

OAC - ONU down for most of the match and pull it out late. Cap at ONU on Sat - men will win boys will lose. JCU has to go to OT? BW can score but cannot defend - WTH?? Capital - with any guys on Sat the conference is yours - not sure they have what it takes.

Hanover fails against Transy - incomprehensible. I still expect Hanover to win the conference - but this is a poor result

Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: bestfancle on October 18, 2018, 09:04:21 am
That Ruple for BW pulled a rabbit out of his hat again. They could have even stole the game from JCU, but I figured as soon as it went to overtime, JCU had it locked up.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 18, 2018, 10:32:08 am
Not totally following the line of argument or the conclusions.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIJ4OJ1wH3o

Of course the 1969 version was much better....
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 19, 2018, 12:08:23 pm
Great Lakes NCAA Tourney Outlook for Pool Cs....

Contenders (with first ranking week SoS) -- CWRU (.607), Kenyon (.572) , OWU (.563), Capital  (.595), CMU (.647), JCU (.626) , ONU (.540), DePauw (.494), Mt. Union (.525), Grove City (.501), Wabash (.508)

Let's go backwards first....Grove City and Wabash will not see any significant rise in SoS given the remaining schedule (unless Wabash gets to NCAC tourney final).  Grove City is 0-1-1 in RvR which will likely hold.  Wabash now is 0-3 on RvR, with DePauw as only remaining team left that might end up ranked.  Wabash could get 2 ranked wins in NCAC tourney if play OWU and Kenyon but of course 2 wins there gets them the AQ.  Grove City needs their AQ (and could be a tough 1st round game for anyone).

Mt. Union also is unlikely to see a significant change in SoS and now is on the low side.  They might get a modest boost with the OAC tourney.  That said, they are currently 2-1 on RvR (wins over CWRU and Cap with a loss to JCU).  ONU is left as another possible ranked win IF ONU remains ranked.

DePauw has a surprisingly low SoS and will get a boost from Kenyon visiting and an away match with Wabash that likely will be mostly offset by Oberlin.  The Tigers could get a boost from 2 games in the NCAC tourney (IF they qualify).  DePauw, however, I will say is 1-0-1 on RvR (presuming Wash U ends up ranked) with a shot at another ranked win Saturday vs Kenyon, with a chance of Wabash getting ranked (game to be played) and another shot if they make the NCAC tourney.  Current record is solid at 10-2-3.  DePauw easily could up end something like 2-1-1 or 3-1-1 on RvR with SoS ending up north of .520.

Ohio Northern at 11-4-1 will get a decent boost on SoS from games with Capital and away at Otterbein and Mt. Union.  ONU currently is 1-3 on RvR with a shot at picking up 2-3 additional wins.  I would say ONU is still alive if they can gets wins over Capital and Mt. Union (assuming Mt. Union stays ranked).

John Carroll sits at 9-4-1 with a very high SoS that might drop marginally and currently on RvR is 2-3-1.  Another ranked win would be helpful but only chance for that is OAC tourney where JCU will have as good a chance as anyone.

Carnegie Mellon has one of the highest SOs's in the country at .647, and that will only go up with away games at Emory and Rochester and a home match with Case.  CMU might challenge Chicago for top SoS in the country.  CMU now at 9-3-2 with current RvR at 2-3-2.  If Grove City gets ranked (unlikely) that would be another win, and of course 3 good chances left for more from the UAA gauntlet.  Let's say CMU has a SoS of .675 and ends up 10-4-3 with RvR of 3-4-2 (or better).  I would say very hard to keep them out....but they probably do need to get at least one win in the last 3 UAAs.  CMU no doubt is destined to be a hot topic at bid time (along with fellow UAA bottom-dweller, Emory).

Capital has a very good SoS which should hold fairly well and now is 11-3 with RvR of 1-3.  They did beat Wabash on the chance that Wabash gets ranked (doubtful), and they have ONU left and then the OAC tourney.  Capital could really use another ranked win (and for that win to hold as a ranked win if they beat ONU), and also would benefit from Mt. Union dropping out of rankings.  Also dependent on JCU remaining in the rankings as the only current ranked win.

OWU has a decent SoS that will rise from the Kenyon game, drop slightly and then go up most likely with the NCAC tourney.  They'll be fine on SoS although not close to the JCU or especially CMU range.  OWU, however, is 2-2-1 on RvR, could hope for another draw if DePauw gets ranked and can also hope for ONU and/or JCU to drop out.  They would get another win if Wabash gets ranked.  And of course OWU should have a lot to say about the NCAC AQ.

Kenyon sits at 11-1-2 with a decent SoS that might drop slightly (DePauw away offset by Oberlin away and last game with Allegheny) and then pick up with the NCAC tourney.  RvR  currently is an underwhelming 1-1-2.  The Lords need JCU to stay ranked and a Wabash ranking would help them too.  Only other chances for ranked wins are if can win away at DePauw and DePauw sneaks into the rankings (not so likely if DPU loses to Kenyon) and what would likely be a NCAC final rematch with OWU (which with a win would of course mean the AQ and no worries).

CWRU currently is top dog and is almost certain to take a Great Lakes Pool C with chances not great for them to win the UAA AQ.  CWRU's SoS of .607 will rise substantially with the 3 remaining UAA games all away.  RvR is an impressive 5-2-1 (presuming Wash U and Mt. Union remaining in), so even with 3 losses to end the season they would be at 5-5-1 or at worst 4-5-1.  Maybe they need a draw out of the last 3 but I see them as a lock, and based on form I doubt they will go 0-3.

So....Based on the above, CWRU in my view is a lock.  Grove City and Wabash appear to have little chance at a Pool C and need AQs.  Wabash is a big wild card because of the impact for several teams (Cap, OWU, Kenyon, maybe DePauw) IF the Little Giants get ranked, but I'm going to assume that will not happen.  ONU staying ranked also impacts several teams (like JCU who needs that ranked win).

That leaves Kenyon, OWU, Capital, CMU, JCU, ONU, Mt Union and DePauw.  DePauw and Mt Union look like longshots with the caveat that either or both have a decent chance of getting to 3 ranked wins.  I would expect that at least two of the OACs will be knocked out in the head to head OAC competition (which will take out ranked wins for someone).  In the end, I don't see an OAC team overtaking Kenyon, OWU and CMU.  Those latter three certainly could play themselves out of contention (and Kenyon would be in trouble if they ended up with no ranked wins), but otherwise Capital seems the closest and they are sitting on just one ranked win with potential for 1-2 more in the OAC tourney.  There is always a chance that a surprise team takes a conference tournament, but a betting man would go with either Kenyon or OWU winning the NCAC AQ.  That would leave one of them vying with CMU and perhaps a second OAC team (among Cap, Mt. Union, JCU, ONU).

The final question is how many at large slots Great Lakes will get.  The answer is almost certainly 2-4.  Assuming only 2 and assuming CWRU is one of them, then the other could come down to Kenyon/OWU and CMU.  I'm going to guess there will be 3 slots (and a second OAC could definitely get into that discussion if JCU gets to 3 ranked wins with that high SoS or Capital gets to 2-3 ranked wins) with the OAC praying hard for 4.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 19, 2018, 01:37:43 pm
As the Kenyon homer....

I don't think Kenyon's problem is grit.  I doubt that any of these young men on any of these teams have manhood issues.  At any rate, the Lords are very aggressive and when playing well can take a good team out of their game.  From what I saw, Kenyon did not allow OWU to get into any kind of rhythm or flow, whereas against DePauw OWU looked like the OWU teams of old passing around at will, dominating possession, and creating decent to good chances out of their possession.  OWU DID get a few very good looks at goal versus Kenyon but all or maybe all but one resulted from unforced, gross errors by the Lords.  The problem for Kenyon is that they have been making those misplays consistently and in the exact same spots on the field.  That's what happened against CWRU...CWRU pounced and punished them while OWU missed on a couple of very open looks (and which is unlikely to happen in any rematch).  It is noteworthy that both of Kenyon's heartbreaking Elite 8 losses in recent years happened on similar errors on the back line.  There is too much responsibility on Lowry without Myers there, and so Kenyon will not beat good teams with continued serious lapses on the back line and between back line and GK.  Credit to OWU for hanging around but Kenyon had a bunch of good chances and huge shots advantage and IMO gave up 2 points they should have had -- even with, again as a homer, one of my favorite refs, Khary Williams, doing the Lords no favors, giving OWU a free kick right on the 18 on a very soft call where there was no real threat (and the defender had nowhere to go but to stand where he was) just minutes after not calling what appeared to be a far more egregious over the back foul on the other end.  At one point Kenyon had 9 fouls to zero for OWU.  Kenyon is playing a ton of players, and at least 5-6 of them are frosh.  I like all the different forwards Brown is throwing out there, but they could use more cohesion in the midfield and definitely need to clean up the action in the back (including the interplay with the GK).  Anderson is having IMO a superb season but they could use another very strong presence and distributor in the middle of the park.  The kid playing holding mid has had some good moments but he also like a couple of the backliners has gotten caught playing too slow and/or holding the ball too long and getting stripped in a bad spot.

All that said, I have tremendous respect for OWU, and they do have some very dangerous talent.  As I said before, I am always convinced they will beat Kenyon.  They have a handful of super-skilled players and a good mix of strength and speed...and I do agree that they could be a very tough out.  I don't think they are back to the level of a few years ago just yet, but Kenyon isn't nearly as strong as they were 2-4 years ago either.  Both will be tough teams to beat in one game scenarios but we'll have to see if either of them has the talent and more so the consistency to string together 3-4 big wins.

CWRU and CMU are very good and very tough, but I like CWRU better because they seem a bit more dangerous.  CWRU bides their time but they have a couple of lethal finishers.  CMU is very solid but seem accustomed to finding ways to lose and I wonder if they are impacted by the volatility on the sidelines with constant ranting and screaming.  The CWRU coach, an OWU alum, has done an outstanding job and I will be rooting for them as long as they aren't playing Kenyon.  I imagine CWRU is not the easiest UAA to build a soccer program.

I also think the OAC is again stronger than in some prior years.  The names have changed a bit from last year, but Capital, Mt. Union, JCU and ONU all seem dangerous, and they are a real threat to good teams who aren't used to playing a lot on turf.

And Grove City must be pretty good.  They could benefit from a 1st round matchup where someone is really underestimating them.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on October 19, 2018, 03:46:15 pm
I had a chance to attend the OWU/Kenyon match on Wednesday. I felt Kenyon dominated the first half in terms of aggressive play, winning 50/50's, and pressuring the OWU midfield and back line. However, as a couple of people said before, Kenyon did not finish some scoring opportunities. Brush and Branche bent, but did not break. JP in goal for OWU did a good job.

During the second half, I think OWU matched or exceeded Kenyon's physical play. However, OWU defensive midfield allowed too much of a counter attack by the speedy and crafty #10 at times.

Overall, the outcome was fair, however, both teams left clear goal opportunities on the table by over passing or extra dribbling. Similar to Kenyon, OWU does finish on the vast array of shots that they take during matches.

OWU had a shot to take the lead in the NCAC and did not capitalize on it. I agree with the others on Kenyon or OWU likely being Pool C qualifiers, if they do their job with their remaining matches going into the NCAC tournament.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 19, 2018, 05:26:45 pm
I had a chance to attend the OWU/Kenyon match on Wednesday. I felt Kenyon dominated the first half in terms of aggressive play, winning 50/50's, and pressuring the OWU midfield and back line. However, as a couple of people said before, Kenyon did not finish some scoring opportunities. Brush and Branche bent, but did not break. JP in goal for OWU did a good job.

During the second half, I think OWU matched or exceeded Kenyon's physical play. However, OWU defensive midfield allowed too much of a counter attack by the speedy and crafty #10 at times.

Overall, the outcome was fair, however, both teams left clear goal opportunities on the table by over passing or extra dribbling. Similar to Kenyon, OWU does finish on the vast array of shots that they take during matches.

OWU had a shot to take the lead in the NCAC and did not capitalize on it. I agree with the others on Kenyon or OWU likely being Pool C qualifiers, if they do their job with their remaining matches going into the NCAC tournament.

The fouls did even out in the 2nd half, 10-10.  However, Kenyon still outshot OWU in the 2nd half and OTs 18-7, including 5-0 in OTs, with a handful of clean chances from the run of play.

I agree with you about Brush and Branche (and Baughman).  Very good size for CBs and good players.

OWU is in good shape.  I personally can't take the anxiety involved as a fan, but the burgeoning rivalry between the two soccer programs I think has been fantastic for the NCAC and for D3 soccer writ large.  Some of the games over the past 5 years have been classics.

OWU-Kenyon has got to be the #1 or #2 current rivalry.  Before an uproar ensues, I'm sure that historically Williams-Amherst takes the prize, with Messiah-E'town in the conversation, Wheaton-North Park and Calvin-Hope, Lynchburg-Roanoke, maybe Lynchburg-W&L.....and I'm sure there are others like Tufts-Brandeis, Colby-Bates, etc, etc...I know DePauw and Wabash have one of the oldest football rivalries of any divisions and play for the Monon Bell prize (bell from some old railroad).

Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 20, 2018, 11:11:19 am
As the Kenyon homer....

I don't think Kenyon's problem is grit.  I doubt that any of these young men on any of these teams have manhood issues.  At any rate, the Lords are very aggressive and when playing well can take a good team out of their game.  From what I saw, Kenyon did not allow OWU to get into any kind of rhythm or flow, whereas against DePauw OWU looked like the OWU teams of old passing around at will, dominating possession, and creating decent to good chances out of their possession.  OWU DID get a few very good looks at goal versus Kenyon but all or maybe all but one resulted from unforced, gross errors by the Lords.  The problem for Kenyon is that they have been making those misplays consistently and in the exact same spots on the field.  That's what happened against CWRU...CWRU pounced and punished them while OWU missed on a couple of very open looks (and which is unlikely to happen in any rematch).  It is noteworthy that both of Kenyon's heartbreaking Elite 8 losses in recent years happened on similar errors on the back line.  There is too much responsibility on Lowry without Myers there, and so Kenyon will not beat good teams with continued serious lapses on the back line and between back line and GK.  Credit to OWU for hanging around but Kenyon had a bunch of good chances and huge shots advantage and IMO gave up 2 points they should have had -- even with, again as a homer, one of my favorite refs, Khary Williams, doing the Lords no favors, giving OWU a free kick right on the 18 on a very soft call where there was no real threat (and the defender had nowhere to go but to stand where he was) just minutes after not calling what appeared to be a far more egregious over the back foul on the other end.  At one point Kenyon had 9 fouls to zero for OWU.  Kenyon is playing a ton of players, and at least 5-6 of them are frosh.  I like all the different forwards Brown is throwing out there, but they could use more cohesion in the midfield and definitely need to clean up the action in the back (including the interplay with the GK).  Anderson is having IMO a superb season but they could use another very strong presence and distributor in the middle of the park.  The kid playing holding mid has had some good moments but he also like a couple of the backliners has gotten caught playing too slow and/or holding the ball too long and getting stripped in a bad spot.

All that said, I have tremendous respect for OWU, and they do have some very dangerous talent.  As I said before, I am always convinced they will beat Kenyon.  They have a handful of super-skilled players and a good mix of strength and speed...and I do agree that they could be a very tough out.  I don't think they are back to the level of a few years ago just yet, but Kenyon isn't nearly as strong as they were 2-4 years ago either.  Both will be tough teams to beat in one game scenarios but we'll have to see if either of them has the talent and more so the consistency to string together 3-4 big wins.

CWRU and CMU are very good and very tough, but I like CWRU better because they seem a bit more dangerous.  CWRU bides their time but they have a couple of lethal finishers.  CMU is very solid but seem accustomed to finding ways to lose and I wonder if they are impacted by the volatility on the sidelines with constant ranting and screaming.  The CWRU coach, an OWU alum, has done an outstanding job and I will be rooting for them as long as they aren't playing Kenyon.  I imagine CWRU is not the easiest UAA to build a soccer program.

I also think the OAC is again stronger than in some prior years.  The names have changed a bit from last year, but Capital, Mt. Union, JCU and ONU all seem dangerous, and they are a real threat to good teams who aren't used to playing a lot on turf.

And Grove City must be pretty good.  They could benefit from a 1st round matchup where someone is really underestimating them.

For the three/four games half/games I've seen: Kenyon's Achilles' Heel  is central defense.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 20, 2018, 02:09:11 pm
Kenyon 3 DePauw 0....what's up with no video from a school like DePauw?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 20, 2018, 05:19:51 pm
NCAC spots 3-6 got very interesting today. Denison and DePauw dug deeper holes while Wooster jumps into a favorable position to make the conference tourney. The Wabash-DePauw contest on Wednesday could put an end to DePauw’s season; Wooster needs to be vigilant at Allegheny. Denison has to win - can’t go to OWU with it all on the line.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 20, 2018, 08:27:45 pm
Camera no longer functioning at ONU - but that’s an insane score at ONU - Cap 6-0 into the second. ONU changed keepers after the third goal - not his fault - Cap playing with intensity tonight - obvi.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 20, 2018, 08:34:56 pm
Domino, in all seriousness, what is the deal with Chewy Gordon?  What can you tell us about him?  Just like West, this is his senior year.  I remember his name as someone good but never expected anything like this.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 20, 2018, 09:21:39 pm
This is the healthiest he’s been in four years- phenomenal training off season. You need to see his effort to create the first two goals. Wouldn’t describe him as flashy - but he’s scored some beautiful goals on his own effort. But he’s smart in knowing how to drift and find spaces where the ball might be. This year it’s just come together for him: health, opportunities and - most importantly - finishing the chances you are given. Greg Knox has been very supportive to his production also.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 22, 2018, 07:55:50 pm
Case with a goal 23 seconds in - kudos to AR1 for being in perfect position to make the call. A free kick from just inside the attacking half headed home for the second. But the game has been predominantly played between the 18’s - Westminster lacking composure in the attacking half.

Was curious to see Westminster before their showdown with Grove City next Saturday. Could be an interesting game.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 23, 2018, 10:53:18 am
Tasty battle today at 4:00 between Indiana NCAC rivals DePauw and Wabash, as the Little Giants are hosting the Tigers at Mud Hollow (aka Fischer Field).  The Tigers will travel the 29.5 miles from Greencastle to Crawfordsville on US231-North.  They may be playing for a spot in the NCAC tourney in addition to the historic Tiny Mason Jar Jug.  Soundtrack to Hoosiers in the background.  No doubt Brad Stevens will be watching this one on stream (except of course there appears to be no stream).
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: 1970s NESCAC Player on October 23, 2018, 11:41:44 am
I'm going to go with Wesleyan....last game of season...home game....they somehow played Haverford, Tufts, etc close, and they beat Bowdoin.  Of course they haven't scored in their last 7 or so NESCAC games except for Trinity.  And I don't see St Joe's blowing their perfect season, especially in final home game of regular season.

PN, you posted inadvertently on the wrong thread . . .  Also, could you tell Brad to do something about the Celts sucking?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 23, 2018, 11:47:40 am
Fixed it while you were posting....

Celts will be fine...no way Stevens doesn't figure it out...but IMO could use some help for Horford.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Christan Shirk on October 24, 2018, 08:33:00 pm
GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 24, 2018

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Case Western Reserve
11-2-1
0.600
4-2-1
11-2-1
1
2.
Kenyon
12-1-2
0.592
1-1-2
12-1-2
2
3.
Carnegie Mellon
9-3-2
0.633
2-2-2
9-3-2
5
4.
Capital
12-3-0
0.572
2-3-0
12-3-0
3
5.
John Carroll
10-4-1
0.604
3-3-1
10-4-1
6
6.
Ohio Wesleyan
11-2-2
0.556
1-2-1
11-2-2
4
7.
Mount Union
10-3-1
0.524
2-1-0
10-3-1
7
8.
Ohio Northern
10-5-1
0.550
1-4-0
10-5-1
8
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 24, 2018, 09:29:48 pm
OAC post season teams set - Cap and JCU with first round byes, lots of potential movement in seeding. Cap with a chance for their first conference title with a win vs Otterbein Sat - list twice to Bein last year. Wilmington at JCU - would expect JCU to win and Wilmington to finish 6th. ONU and Mt Union looks to be a juicy affair - ONU win and Bein lose could see ONU move to third.

NCAC - while we are all waiting for and expecting an OWU-Kenyon rematch the fourth spot is very much up for grabs. I love Wooster at Wabash - Wooster pretty much has to win to get in. DePauw needs to win and hope either Denison or Wooster lose.

Hanover, PSU-B and Grove City need to hold on- although Grove City doesn’t have a gimme vs Westminster - probably a 1-0 game either way.

Case with 3 difficult road games will be lucky to go 2-1. Just don’t see them winning more than 1. CMU with the same schedule - on the road except for the CWRU game - could also drop at least two. Regional rankings - expect Kenyon to be 1 or 2 when it’s all done.

Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 25, 2018, 01:27:47 pm
I do not understand what is happening at Oberlin......1-15 this season. I've always thought Oberlin would be a tough school for recruiting, given the overall activist/artsy vibe and the stiff recruiting competition from schools in New England, the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest on a similar tier, but on the other hand the coach seems very good and has been there for years.  He also seemed to have Oberlin on the rise as they had a 14-4-4 season in 2013 and made the NCAA tourney and then had another very good year just two years ago in 2016 (15-4-1).
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Ryan Harmanis on October 26, 2018, 09:54:03 am
Recruiting. I remain convinced that programs generally need at least two good recruiting classes out of four to be decent. Three out of four to be really good. My guess, having not researched or looked at rosters, is that Oberlin nailed a couple good classes and those guys have now graduated. Wittenberg had a similar stretch when I played - they were pretty good in 2006-07, really good (Pool C) in 2008, then fell off the map once the key players  graduated.

OWU is another good example. In 2016 and 2017 multiple classes were smaller, with fewer contributions from upper classmen. Results showed that, as did the playing style and quality of play. This year, only two seniors see meaningful minutes, but OWU is getting good contributions from all three other classes. And results and quality of play show that. (Off topic, but results also show a team that hasn’t fully matured yet. The loss to JCU and draw against DePauw came from flat performances, and now the team has no margin for error to make the tournament.)

Most programs struggle to get over the hump and consistently recruit strong classes. There’s a danger zone where you need better players even than the ones you have, or at least players that are the same level. But you aren’t quite good enough to recruit off success (conference champs, consistent NCAAs), and you’re too good to recruit on a good chance at early playing time. Most programs go backward at that point. In the NCAC, only OWU and, more recently, Kenyon have managed to recruit at a high enough level to sustain success. Even DePauw has noticeably dropped off the last couple seasons.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 26, 2018, 10:05:29 am
Recruiting. I remain convinced that programs generally need at least two good recruiting classes out of four to be decent. Three out of four to be really good. My guess, having not researched or looked at rosters, is that Oberlin nailed a couple good classes and those guys have now graduated. Wittenberg had a similar stretch when I played - they were pretty good in 2006-07, really good (Pool C) in 2008, then fell off the map once the key players  graduated.

OWU is another good example. In 2016 and 2017 multiple classes were smaller, with fewer contributions from upper classmen. Results showed that, as did the playing style and quality of play. This year, only two seniors see meaningful minutes, but OWU is getting good contributions from all three other classes. And results and quality of play show that. (Off topic, but results also show a team that hasn’t fully matured yet. The loss to JCU and draw against DePauw came from flat performances, and now the team has no margin for error to make the tournament.)

Most programs struggle to get over the hump and consistently recruit strong classes. There’s a danger zone where you need better players even than the ones you have, or at least players that are the same level. But you aren’t quite good enough to recruit off success (conference champs, consistent NCAAs), and you’re too good to recruit on a good chance at early playing time. Most programs go backward at that point. In the NCAC, only OWU and, more recently, Kenyon have managed to recruit at a high enough level to sustain success. Even DePauw has noticeably dropped off the last couple seasons.

Yep.  OWU still will have good to very good teams 10 and 15 years from now (barring something really unforeseen).  OWU is like UK, Duke, UNC, etc in bball.....they are always going to be good (and probably even after monumental coaching changes).

What's interesting is how programs (Tufts, Kenyon, etc) go from moribund to very competitive.  At least in part that must correlate with a coach really committing to a program/place and being given some resources/latitude.

Oberlin, as I've said, I've always thought was a tough sell, but even in mediocre to bad years they'd typically go 6-8-2 or 5-9-3.  I'm curious how he got a couple of classes that enabled them to have a couple of strong seasons and what is getting in the way from getting similar classes now, especially since in the last few years there was potential and some recent success to point to.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 26, 2018, 11:55:51 am
Only 4 seniors - two that rarely play - only one who starts every game.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Lesaborian96 on October 26, 2018, 04:38:07 pm
OAC post season teams set - Cap and JCU with first round byes, lots of potential movement in seeding. Cap with a chance for their first conference title with a win vs Otterbein Sat - list twice to Bein last year. Wilmington at JCU - would expect JCU to win and Wilmington to finish 6th. ONU and Mt Union looks to be a juicy affair - ONU win and Bein lose could see ONU move to third.

NCAC - while we are all waiting for and expecting an OWU-Kenyon rematch the fourth spot is very much up for grabs. I love Wooster at Wabash - Wooster pretty much has to win to get in. DePauw needs to win and hope either Denison or Wooster lose.

Hanover, PSU-B and Grove City need to hold on- although Grove City doesn’t have a gimme vs Westminster - probably a 1-0 game either way.

Case with 3 difficult road games will be lucky to go 2-1. Just don’t see them winning more than 1. CMU with the same schedule - on the road except for the CWRU game - could also drop at least two. Regional rankings - expect Kenyon to be 1 or 2 when it’s all done.

I feel the one seed is Case's to give up. Case did well on the CMU - EMORY weekend last year coming away with two wins. And if Wash-U returns to be regionally ranked, having 5-7 regionally ranked wins would be huge relative to everyone else in Great Lakes.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 26, 2018, 04:56:09 pm
OAC post season teams set - Cap and JCU with first round byes, lots of potential movement in seeding. Cap with a chance for their first conference title with a win vs Otterbein Sat - list twice to Bein last year. Wilmington at JCU - would expect JCU to win and Wilmington to finish 6th. ONU and Mt Union looks to be a juicy affair - ONU win and Bein lose could see ONU move to third.

NCAC - while we are all waiting for and expecting an OWU-Kenyon rematch the fourth spot is very much up for grabs. I love Wooster at Wabash - Wooster pretty much has to win to get in. DePauw needs to win and hope either Denison or Wooster lose.

Hanover, PSU-B and Grove City need to hold on- although Grove City doesn’t have a gimme vs Westminster - probably a 1-0 game either way.

Case with 3 difficult road games will be lucky to go 2-1. Just don’t see them winning more than 1. CMU with the same schedule - on the road except for the CWRU game - could also drop at least two. Regional rankings - expect Kenyon to be 1 or 2 when it’s all done.

I feel the one seed is Case's to give up. Case did well on the CMU - EMORY weekend last year coming away with two wins. And if Wash-U returns to be regionally ranked, having 5-7 regionally ranked wins would be huge relative to everyone else in Great Lakes.

I think you are absolutely right.  For Kenyon to challenge at all the Lords would have to win their AQ (and get another ranked win but CWRU still would have far more).  CWRU DOES want to stay ahead of CMU, though, which could be challenged if CMU goes 3-0 in last 3 which would include a H2H versus Case.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 26, 2018, 05:24:18 pm
You know what...Case should just go ahead and win the darn UAA... already up 1-0 at UR.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 27, 2018, 02:37:37 pm
Kudos to CWRU.....the Spartans are right up there IMO for story of the year so far with Nick West and St. Joe's.

Looks like a very good chance Denison, DePauw and Wooster will all finish 4-3-2 in NCAC and all vying for the 4th playoff spot.  Denison beat DePauw.  Wooster beat Denison and tied DePauw.  Anyone with an idea on how the tiebreakers would shake out?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 27, 2018, 02:51:36 pm
Mt. Union closing in on big win versus Ohio Northern.

And I should have added Chewy Gordon to top stories of 2018 list.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 27, 2018, 03:10:26 pm
Funny - I was wondering the same about the three way tie scenario. Denison - it’s all in your hands. Let’s see how they respond
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 27, 2018, 04:42:21 pm
I had a sneaky feeling that Oberlin might show up and DePauw might not....wonder if DePauw already knows the tiebreakers don't fall in their favor....0-0 in 68th minute.

Meanwhile, Kenyon up 4-0 at half on senior day, and looking like well on way to another NCAC regular season title.  Impressive for Coach Brown regardless of what happens from here on out.

Ans DePauw gets one on the 70th minute.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 27, 2018, 04:57:21 pm
Appears that Kenyon started 2nd half with all subs except for 2 CBs and GK, and now up 7-0 on Allegheny 15 minutes into 2nd period.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 27, 2018, 05:04:28 pm
DePauw survives.  We'll find out later if it matters at all.  Denison could end the discussion by beating OWU tonight at OWU, so we can be pretty sure that won't happen.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Ommadawn on October 27, 2018, 08:52:14 pm
DePauw survives.  We'll find out later if it matters at all.  Denison could end the discussion by beating OWU tonight at OWU, so we can be pretty sure that won't happen.

Not so fast!  Denison pulls the upset 2-1 despite being outshot 34 (12) to 4 (3).
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 27, 2018, 08:58:23 pm
I'm shocked.  Congrats to Denison.  And I feel bad for Wooster who must have felt like they were basically in for the first time in a good many years.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 27, 2018, 09:43:43 pm
Love the gutty effort by Denison. Love that teams with their fate in their hands take care of business. No joy for the 3rd and 4th place teams in the NCAC - but enjoy tonight Big Red.

Capital wins the tie-breaker vs JCU to take their first OAC title since 2009. I believe they also set a team record for goals scored. The 2009 team scored 57,including post season. This team has 58. Chewy was on the field for 1 minute as this was senior night - limited to less than 10 minutes combined the last two games. Didn’t see the opportunity for Marietta to jump Wilmington but they did. Interesting first round games - Marietta with the 1-0 win at home over Mt Union, Otterbein with a 1-0 win over ONU. Watched a lot of the ONU game today - there’s something off with this group - not playing like a team - too much individual effort.

Grove City and Westminster much more evenly played - tourney winner goes, GC doesn’t want to test the Pool C waters. Would love to see them rematched in the final.
-
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on October 27, 2018, 10:12:18 pm
Messy night at OWU, steady drizzle, wet fields. OWU was relentless. As a reward for beating OWU at OWU on Senior Night, Denison gets the pleasure of playing them on Wednesday. All of these players just want to play another game, congrats!
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 28, 2018, 12:05:55 pm
I really like this CWRU squad....they may have the elements for a deep run.

Kudos to Wabash for another very good season, sitting at I believe 12-3-3 and again in the NCAC tournament.  Coach Keller really has the Little Giants going in the right direction.  The playoff cards also fell fortunately for Wabash.  By falling to #4 on a tiebreaker, Wabash will take on Kenyon in one semifinal, and Keller already is on record stating that OWU was the best team Wabash played all year, so they won't have to deal with the Battling Bishops until the final.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: midwest on October 29, 2018, 11:34:53 am
Tough for Wabash to get 2:30 game time at Kenyon, with a 4-4 1/2 hour drive to get to Gambier.

This has probably been addressed before, my apologies, but the no-lights at Kenyon soccer seems to create challenges for teams traveling further to Gambier, schools like Wabash and Depauw. I can imagine the funding may not be there for Wabash to leave Tuesday night so that they may find themselves traveling early Wed am. Or maybe programs keep pockets of funds available for those scenarios? Of course, as the conference winner, Kenyon gets to enjoy it's home field advantage, just the timing constraints seem a challenge.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 29, 2018, 11:42:05 am
Tough for Wabash to get 2:30 game time at Kenyon, with a 4-4 1/2 hour drive to get to Gambier.

This has probably been addressed before, my apologies, but the no-lights at Kenyon soccer seems to create challenges for teams traveling further to Gambier, schools like Wabash and Depauw. I can imagine the funding may not be there for Wabash to leave Tuesday night so that they may find themselves traveling early Wed am. Or maybe programs keep pockets of funds available for those scenarios? Of course, as the conference winner, Kenyon gets to enjoy it's home field advantage, just the timing constraints seem a challenge.

They probably will come in the night before....and not sure a 4.5 hour drive on the same day is any better if you play later at night.  And I have a feeling you'll be wishing Denison-OWU was at 2:30 as well instead of under the lights with a bigger crowd at historic Roy Rike.

FWIW, all of the NESCAC tourney games (and most in the regular season) are during the daytime, and some of those games involve bus rides of 6-8/9 hours.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 30, 2018, 03:44:36 pm
D3 Soccer poll serves Capital the ultimate bulletin board material. Not worthy of a single vote - I disagree
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Flying Weasel on October 30, 2018, 11:19:56 pm
D3 Soccer poll serves Capital the ultimate bulletin board material. Not worthy of a single vote - I disagree

Fair or not, Capital did itself no favors with Top 25 voters with the timing and margin of their losses.  At 6-1-0 after four weeks, Capital was tied for fourth most points among unranked teams receiving votes in the Week 4 poll.  And what did they do when the voters were paying the most attention?  They lost 3-0 to Ohio Wesleyan who hadn't received a single vote in that Week 4 poll.  If voters didn't rate Ohio Wesleyan at that point, why would they rate a team who lost to them by 3 goals?  Then, after Capital ran off 4 straight wins (including one over John Carroll) and were poised to gain votes in the Week 7 poll, what did they do?  They lost 3-1 to Mount Union who hadn't received any votes in the previous poll following a 2-loss week.  So, again, if voters didn't rate Mount Union at that point, why would they rate a team who lost to them 3-1? 

I'm not personally agreeing or disagreeing with Capital being shutout by the voters, but looking at the sequence of things, each time voters would have been ready to pull the trigger on Capital, they went out and gave the voters a big reason not to.

But if Capital can use being passed over by the voters as motivation to go out and win games, great!  More power to them.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 08:37:03 am
D3 Soccer poll serves Capital the ultimate bulletin board material. Not worthy of a single vote - I disagree

Fair or not, Capital did itself no favors with Top 25 voters with the timing and margin of their losses.  At 6-1-0 after four weeks, Capital was tied for fourth most points among unranked teams receiving votes in the Week 4 poll.  And what did they do when the voters were paying the most attention?  They lost 3-0 to Ohio Wesleyan who hadn't received a single vote in that Week 4 poll.  If voters didn't rate Ohio Wesleyan at that point, why would they rate a team who lost to them by 3 goals?  Then, after Capital ran off 4 straight wins (including one over John Carroll) and were poised to gain votes in the Week 7 poll, what did they do?  They lost 3-1 to Mount Union who hadn't received any votes in the previous poll following a 2-loss week.  So, again, if voters didn't rate Mount Union at that point, why would they rate a team who lost to them 3-1? 

I'm not personally agreeing or disagreeing with Capital being shutout by the voters, but looking at the sequence of things, each time voters would have been ready to pull the trigger on Capital, they went out and gave the voters a big reason not to.

But if Capital can use being passed over by the voters as motivation to go out and win games, great!  More power to them.

I follow your analysis and while plausible the reasoning seems a bit speculative.  In addition to OWU and Mt Union proving to be good teams there is an internal contradiction as well.  Capital DID receive votes in Week 8, and then after only additional wins did not receive any for Week 9.  IMO Capital at 14-3, 8-1 in the OAC, regular season OAC winners, pretty strong SoS, etc probably deserves a national ranking.  Not receiving ANY votes seems like a blip or overlook of some sort.  I think the OAC is underrated this year compared to last year's hype, as Capital, John Carroll, and Mt. Union have proven to be good teams and Ohio Northern and Otterbein are at least decent.  I also can see the frustration when teams like Emory, Dickinson, maybe CMU, etc seemingly can lose time after time and stay in the rankings for weeks on end (although I think Emory finally is out).  On the other hand, what made no sense at all was the ranting about D3soccer and preseason since D3soccer doesn't do a preseason poll, and certainly I haven't seen anyone arguing that current rankings of teams should be based even in small part on performance in years past.  BTW, the Capital poster seems to be forgetting that just 2 weeks ago he doubted whether Capital had the "guts and grit" to be competitive.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 31, 2018, 10:27:50 am
That was “internal” bulletin board material. The OWU game was their worst performance of the year, yet OWU’s three losses come from teams Cap beat: 3-0 record, 10-0 GF/GA. But it a single vote? As John Gruden would say:”C’mon man!”
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 10:40:07 am
That was “internal” bulletin board material. The OWU game was their worst performance of the year, yet OWU’s three losses come from teams Cap beat: 3-0 record, 10-0 GF/GA. But it a single vote? As John Gruden would say:”C’mon man!”

Fair enough.  I'm rooting for Capital (up to a point) and definitely rooting for Mr. Gordon.

Now please feel free to provide some additional "external" bulletin board material for the Lords.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Flying Weasel on October 31, 2018, 11:31:03 am
Paul Newman, not sure what you mean by "seems a bit speculative".  There is nothing speculative about pointing out the timing of their big losses and to whom.  And it's not going out on a limb to suggest that teams rarely go from unranked to ranked after a week in which they lose by 2 or 3 goals to an unranked team.  On the other hand, it's always 100% speculation when discussing why voters voted how they did.  I limited myself to presenting some things the voters might have been considering on two given occasions during the season without theorizing on the full reasons for their votes (or lack thereof) on those two occasions, much less on other weeks.

Inertia definitely plays a part in the Top 25 rankings, too big a part probably.  Until a team gets ranked, that inertia is against them, but once ranked it can benefit them.  In order to drop a team from the rankings, a voter needs to find another team to take their place.  So even when a ranked team has a bad result, if the teams a voter was considering (but just missed the cut previously) don't do anything to impress that week, or worse, also have a bad result, then there's a chance that the ranked team remains so due to a perceived lack of a better alternative.  In actuality, it's usually several ranked teams on the chopping block due to poor results which means trying to find several unranked teams that seem to deserve to take their place.  The former can often exceed the latter, meaning some ranked team escapes the chopping block.

And certainly results from earlier in the season should be re-evaluated.  What may have at the moment seemed like a poor result might not deserve to be considered as such a negative when additional results show that the opponent was much stronger than realized at the time.  And vice versa, what was thought to be a quality win at the time might later in the season be judged quite differently when the opponent is seen to be having a down year.  However, is this sort of re-visiting earlier results/opponents actually being done by all the voters for all the opponents of all the teams they are considering for their ballot?  Is that even reasonable?  What time commitment would be required to do so and is that the kind of time coaches and SIDS have to give?  I'm not sure.

As to having 7 points last week and none this week despite two wins, who knows?  They were probably on just a single ballot last week.  Once you get past the first 20 teams on your ballot, there's usually a lot of teams that are hard to pick between, and whichever ones you go with you aren't especially married to.  It is a little curious, for sure, but I'm not sure it ever makes much sense to draw any conclusions from the "receiving votes" list beyond the first several teams.  Just remember, if you had complete consensus, the 26th best team in the nation would receive zero votes.  There could have been five (or even twenty) voters who had Capital as their 26th team and Capital would still have had zero votes while a vote went to Team XYZ who wasn't on anyone voter's radar accept one lone voter who threw them on their ballot as one of their last five pick 'ems (maybe because it was a team from their region/conference).  That's why I say, don't draw any conclusions from the "receiving votes" list beyond the first several teams.  It doesn't really tell you what some people seem to think it does.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 11:49:03 am
Paul Newman, not sure what you mean by "seems a bit speculative".  There is nothing speculative about pointing out the timing of their big losses and to whom.  And it's not going out on a limb to suggest that teams rarely go from unranked to ranked after a week in which they lose by 2 or 3 goals to an unranked team.  On the other hand, it's always 100% speculation when discussing why voters voted how they did.  I limited myself to presenting some things the voters might have been considering on two given occasions during the season without theorizing on the full reasons for their votes (or lack thereof) on those two occasions, much less on other weeks.

Flying Weasel, you described above in your own words how it was 'speculative.'  You stated some factual info which you were citing, and which you then suggested might correlate with a failure to be ranked.  I'm not sure what the difference is between 'not going out on a limb' and 'speculation,' but fair enough.  The thing is, though, that the original question was why they weren't ranked NOW.  No one other than you was asking why they weren't ranked the immediate weeks following those losses, so the correlation you were implying, it seemed to me, was between 'not going out on a limb' to why they weren't ranked at the times of those losses to 'speculation' about why not now.  You were offering thoughts about why not ranked or receiving votes currently, correct?

At any rate, I don't have any issue with the D3 poll in general, and there will always be fans thinking their team got slighted.  That's to be expected.  I also don't expect voters to go 4 and 5 layers deep in some analysis to reach their votes (which, btw, is why I don't criticize preseason rankings, because who could expect voters to do a deep dive on what team lost a bunch of key seniors, which didn't, which teams have superb recruiting classes coming in, etc?). 

The polls are fun.  And most of us who have some understanding of the regional rankings understand that those are the ones that really "count."
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Flying Weasel on October 31, 2018, 12:47:20 pm
Paul Newman, not sure what you mean by "seems a bit speculative".  There is nothing speculative about pointing out the timing of their big losses and to whom.  And it's not going out on a limb to suggest that teams rarely go from unranked to ranked after a week in which they lose by 2 or 3 goals to an unranked team.  On the other hand, it's always 100% speculation when discussing why voters voted how they did.  I limited myself to presenting some things the voters might have been considering on two given occasions during the season without theorizing on the full reasons for their votes (or lack thereof) on those two occasions, much less on other weeks.

Flying Weasel, you described above in your own words how it was 'speculative.'  You stated some factual info which you were citing, and which you then suggested might correlate with a failure to be ranked.  I'm not sure what the difference is between 'not going out on a limb' and 'speculation,' but fair enough.  The thing is, though, that the original question was why they weren't ranked NOW.  No one other than you was asking why they weren't ranked the immediate weeks following those losses, so the correlation you were implying, it seemed to me, was between 'not going out on a limb' to why they weren't ranked at the times of those losses to 'speculation' about why not now.  You were offering thoughts about why not ranked or receiving votes currently, correct?


You're correct that my original post diverted from the question about why Capital isn't ranked NOW, but that wasn't my intent.  I was thinking about why they aren't ranked now, but my post didn't communicate that because I took for granted the effect (and general awareness of the effect) of the inertia of being ranked/unranked, and focused instead on two key points in time when Capital was positioned to overcome that inertia and failed.  So poor communication on my part.  Hopefully my second response connected the dots between my first post and the original question, namely that two possible reasons/factors for not being ranked now are (a) the inertia of being ranked/unranked and (b) the possibility that there's not extensive re-visiting/re-evaluating of earlier results/opponents.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Christan Shirk on October 31, 2018, 02:43:55 pm
GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 31, 2018

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Case Western Reserve
14-2-1
0.611
6-2-1
14-2-1
1
2.
John Carroll
12-4-1
0.592
3-3-1
12-4-1
5
3.
Carnegie Mellon
10-4-2
0.629
3-3-2
10-4-2
3
4.
Kenyon
14-1-2
0.560
1-1-2
14-1-2
2
5.
Capital
14-3-0
0.569
2-3-0
14-3-0
4
6.
Mount Union
12-3-1
0.525
3-1-0
12-3-1
7
7.
Ohio Wesleyan
12-3-2
0.542
1-2-1
12-3-2
6
8.
Ohio Northern
10-7-1
0.550
1-5-0
10-7-1
8
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 03:30:00 pm
Kenyon struggling with Wabash as Wabash has 9 men behind the ball and don't care if they cross midfield...looking for either a goal off a counter or free kick and otherwise playing for PKs.  Smart strategy and Lords need a goal to get them out of it.  Slippery field conditions in rain as well.  0-0 at half.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on October 31, 2018, 05:01:12 pm
Paul - how’s your heart doing after that finish???
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on October 31, 2018, 05:02:58 pm
UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kenyon scores with 1 second left in double overtime.

WOW!!

Wabash plus the rain were giving Kenyon a run.  Wabash should be commended.

I just saw the last 90 seconds!

Clutch goal by Lowery! I think it was Lowery.
Title: Kenyon clutch goal
Post by: ncac_dad on October 31, 2018, 05:05:37 pm
Paul, I bet you had to put your heart back in your chest!

Clutch play by Kenyon!
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 05:05:52 pm
UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kenyon scores with 1 second left in double overtime.

WOW!!

Wabash plus the rain were giving Kenyon a run.  Wabash should be commended.

I just saw the last 90 seconds!

Clutch goal by Lowery! I think it was Lowery.

Yup....senior McNeer to senior Lowry.  Very, very fortunate.  Extremely frustrating game for Kenyon and Wabash easily could have taken it with one slip here or there or in PKs.  109:59!!!
Title: Re: Kenyon clutch goal
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 05:07:37 pm
Paul, I bet you had to put your heart back in your chest!

Clutch play by Kenyon!

That's why I have a Boston Scientific dual-chamber defibrillator/pacemaker inside my chest lol.

I'd hug you even if I hated you right now.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: ncac_dad on October 31, 2018, 05:29:26 pm
I may need one tonight.

Next up OWU and Denison.

I have it on good authority that what happened last Saturday will not be happening again :)

Hopefully, I will see you on Saturday.

Again, congrats to Kenyon.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on October 31, 2018, 06:52:05 pm
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1057761593377939462

Link to the final seconds...

Not the greatest goal ever by any means,  but  play back again to see the effort made by Lowry, a senior All American CB after playing the full 109 minutes making that run to get all the way to the back post and finish with less than 10 secs to PKs....there is a young man who wants to win.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: EB2319 on November 01, 2018, 07:44:18 am
making that run to get all the way to the back post and finish with less than 10 secs to PKs....there is a young man who wants to win.

Let's not get carried away. Lowery made the initial cross from the back side 18, so he didn't have to run THAT FAR to get to the post.  Nonetheless, good for him and a great game-winning memory.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on November 01, 2018, 08:34:56 am
making that run to get all the way to the back post and finish with less than 10 secs to PKs....there is a young man who wants to win.

Let's not get carried away. Lowery made the initial cross from the back side 18, so he didn't have to run THAT FAR to get to the post.  Nonetheless, good for him and a great game-winning memory.

Let's compromise...the run wasn't that far but as a CB he put in the cross starting from close to the sideline and then about halfway between sideline and 18 with under 15 sec left...and then the left back jukes a guy and puts a low liner into the box from the left side with under 7 secs and Lowry has no reason to think that ball would get all the way thru and yet after making plays all over the field for 110 minutes is the player who gets to the spot to make the play...

Last points...

1) When McNeer the LB is making his juke to free himself Lowry isn't even in the video frame...

2) McNeer deserves credit for not skying a last shot 20 feet over the bar and just putting ball thru the box

3) The more I look at it the actual key to the play may have been the crafty little midfielder Penas getting a touch to create a little misdirection allowing ball to get thru to back post and Lowry...
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: EB2319 on November 01, 2018, 11:16:48 am
I'll take it one step further... I hold the guy marking Lowery as responsible (#7?).  I don't know that he ever got up off the ground after the initial cross.  At the very end of the play, there are only 10 defenders in/around the box, and #7 isn't one of them. Had he simply stay with Lowery this may never have happened.

But I agree 100% that McNeer's not skying it (as usually happens in these scenarios) deserves much credit (though I'm not sure it was totally intentional).

The more I watch this, the more I love it.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 01, 2018, 02:27:54 pm
Capital canceled today - not sure about JCU. I’m at the beach but Ohio is more underwater than I am
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 01, 2018, 04:10:03 pm
Canceled? Nope. The d3soccer.com scoreboard says that the match is postponed until tomorrow, as do the Capital and Ohio Northern websites.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on November 01, 2018, 04:28:30 pm
Canceled? Nope. The d3soccer.com scoreboard says that the match is postponed until tomorrow, as do the Capital and Ohio Northern websites.

I suspect Domino1195 is quite aware of the status and that tournament games get played.... ;)
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 01, 2018, 09:07:52 pm
JCU hangs on - Mt Union made the last 15 minutes very interesting. Got one back but couldn’t overcome the 2-0 hole. JCU loses a key player for the final due to RC.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 02, 2018, 03:16:12 pm
Canceled? Nope. The d3soccer.com scoreboard says that the match is postponed until tomorrow, as do the Capital and Ohio Northern websites.

I suspect Domino1195 is quite aware of the status and that tournament games get played.... ;)

Well, he said "canceled". And they weren't canceled.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on November 02, 2018, 07:33:35 pm
I was watching Montclair and came back and saw Chewy scored and then was subbed a minute or two later.  Injured?  Hard to believe the 21st minute is when he usually comes out.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: OldNed on November 02, 2018, 07:39:00 pm
I was watching Montclair and came back and saw Chewy scored and then was subbed a minute or two later.  Injured?  Hard to believe the 21st minute is when he usually comes out.

It's kind of hard to see player numbers on the feed, but there was an injured player who went off shortly after Chewy scored.  It looks like it could have been Chewy, but I'm not positive. 
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: PaulNewman on November 02, 2018, 07:41:23 pm
I was watching Montclair and came back and saw Chewy scored and then was subbed a minute or two later.  Injured?  Hard to believe the 21st minute is when he usually comes out.

It's kind of hard to see player numbers on the feed, but there was an injured player who went off shortly after Chewy scored.  It looks like it could have been Chewy, but I'm not positive.

At the time he was the only played that had been subbed so must have been him.  Did he walk off or carried off?
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: OldNed on November 02, 2018, 07:44:58 pm
I was watching Montclair and came back and saw Chewy scored and then was subbed a minute or two later.  Injured?  Hard to believe the 21st minute is when he usually comes out.

It's kind of hard to see player numbers on the feed, but there was an injured player who went off shortly after Chewy scored.  It looks like it could have been Chewy, but I'm not positive.

At the time he was the only played that had been subbed so must have been him.  Did he walk off or carried off?

He walked off from behind the ONU goal and he was limping noticeably.  I don't have the sound on, so I'm not sure what the announcer might have been saying.  Whatever injury it might be, it looked like Chewy was in some pain. 
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 02, 2018, 08:07:41 pm
He sprinted for a through ball and then went  down with no contact. I mentioned earlier that he’s been injured every year and that his success this year has been due to staying fit. 5 minutes in the Wilmington game, 1 in the Otterbein game, about 20 tonight.

Cap very sloppy with their passes and lucky to have a lead. ONU has brought intensity from the opening whistle - very reminiscent of the OWU and JCU game (first half). Interested to see how they start the second half
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Gregory Sager on November 02, 2018, 09:24:55 pm
Polar Bears win in double OT, 2-1.

I had the match on, and when I wasn't watching it I could at least hear it ... and I don't remember the broadcasters saying anything about Chewy Gordon being injured. (I might've missed it when I went to the bathroom.  ;)) But his absence after he came out was, obviously, the elephant in the room.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 02, 2018, 09:58:09 pm
ONU played with grit and toughness all night and got a deserved win. Cap probably with little chance left but a very good season nonetheless. Many of these players return for what will be Cap’s biggest senior class in 5-6 years.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Mr.Right on November 03, 2018, 10:18:34 am
I think Capital still has a shot but you are right a Win over Ohio Northern would have clinched it IMO. That would have given them their 3rd RvR and their SOS will rise anyhow. Now I think they are on the bubble but probably the wrong side of it especially if Ohio Northern defeats JCU and as you said one of their best players got a red in the Semi's.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 03, 2018, 01:05:48 pm
Grove City drops the championship game 1-0.  I watched Westminster vs Case and was impressed - especially after that horrible start to the game.  They are very stingy on defense - and I expect that they will be going to Kenyon for their first round game.  Assumptions that Case and Kenyon will host first round action.

Mr Right - would like to think they have a shot but they really don't.  Had they won last night - maybe.  But it's a building programs and they have been on a good path the last three years.  The recruiting for central Ohio players is getting very competitive and Cap has been getting a steady stream of young talent.
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 03, 2018, 06:18:34 pm
Hanover with a horrible KFTM loses their NCAA bid. Most saddened for Grove City. Hope there’s room for OWU.  But CMU solidified their bid today - that makes 7 GL bids - 5 AQ and 2 UAA Pool C bids. We’re on the fence for an additional bid. Amherst loss is painful . . .
Title: Re: 2018 Great Lakes Region
Post by: Domino1195 on November 10, 2018, 11:20:29 pm
GL 6-2. Congrats to PSU-B with the big underdog victory. GL teams crash head on tomorrow - represent lads!!!