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Messages - Old Pal Wes

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North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 21, 2015, 03:11:26 pm »
Pretty good by the Wabash OL today (and Zurek) today. Think that was mostly their game plan regardless of conditions. May have run for more if not for the snow.

The conditions certainly slowed Albion. But, they also couldn't protect. Bona was under pressure a lot. 4 turnovers won't beat Wabash.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 21, 2015, 02:42:32 pm »
Zurek at 235 with a full quarter to go.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 21, 2015, 01:46:00 pm »
The ball is cold and wet

To quote my HS coach, "Wet balls are a part of the game."

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 21, 2015, 12:35:19 pm »
Correction: Neither team can hold on to the ball.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 21, 2015, 12:33:11 pm »
Albion can't hang on to the ball.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 21, 2015, 12:01:33 pm »
This weather is insanity.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 19, 2015, 06:37:19 pm »
In the middle of their total meltdown against Trine that I was able to watch before Albion blocked their game archive, Albion's broadcast guys mentioned more than once that "now is a good time for something deep off of play action".  If this is a big part of what they do, I'll be interested to see if they give it a try.  Play action bombing is/was a big part of DePauw's offense and they didn't even try it against Wabash.

Two issues with playaction against the Wabash defense: 1) You have to protect it long enough, which when you show run action and that front 6 starts flying upfield, is gonna be a pretty tough task. 2) While Austin Brown (the SS) is Wabash's leading tackler, Cmehil (the FS) is the 12th leading tackler. You aren't gonna run by him anyway. He's not a run player. After watching the game Saturday, I see why that got shelved for DePauw. It's a huge part of DePauw's offense. They didn't call it once.

I think the game plan to beat Wabash is to try to be as efficient as possible in the quick passing game. If you can complete 55%+ (which DePauw could have done if Hunt wasn't throwing it over everybody's head in the first half) and run it at 4 per carry (which DePauw did do) you've got a chance to stay ahead of the chains. 2nd & 3rd and long is where turnovers live, and that's going to bury Albion if it happens.

I think Albion probably scores more Saturday than anybody has scored on Wabash to this point, which isn't that hard. They need 19 to do it. But, as I told wally the other day, Zurek may run for more this week than he did last week. Albion's D is not good. To quote Nick Saban, people run through them like **** through a tin horn. Wabash has to shorten the game. Run the ball. Limit Albion's possessions. Keep them in the area of 9-10 possessions instead of 14-15. DePauw had 10 possessions last week, which isn't enough to win against that defense.

One final thought on shallow cross - not sure how many different ways Albion runs it, because you've got a few options. Some of them can really screw you. We run it from trips and it's one of our best passing plays. 

This is typically called the "drive" concept, but you can see it's very similar. It's a similar read for the QB. I actually think it's easier because you don't have to read defenders (or find your receivers) going in opposite directions. Also, you're forcing the D to play you in their normal trips look. You really can't vary what you do defensively to trips very much. You've got to cover them with at least 3 in way or another and still play at least 5 1/2 in the box if the O is in 1 back. The read for the QB in that drawing is the M right thru to the SS. Easy read. He never has to look opposite if he doesn't want it. A Cover 2 safety is in big trouble there. Either has to sink with the post or sit on the 12 yard dig. He can't be right. A cover 4 safety isn't ever coming up on the dig anyway. So the dig is almost always good. Our QB completed 75% of his passes to the dig for 16 yards PER ATTEMPT in 2014, which is insane. We were so good at it that people just ran a backer right to the dig when we were in trips this year. Totally vacated the #2 slant/hitch area and ran that playside backer to 12 yards and sat him down.

It can cause you big problems defensively. Especially when you don't see a lot of it. Shallow cross & its variants was a big thing like 5 years ago, mostly because of how good Az St was at it. Like most things, it's kind of gone away except for the teams that really commit to it. Now everybody is on power read & run/pass option stuff.

I'm excited to watch this thing Saturday. Really excited to see what BJ Hammer has planned for them. Weather will probably be an issue. Wet, cold footballs are no fun to throw. And it'll be windy as heck. Zurek coming', y'all.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 19, 2015, 12:33:08 am »
I watched some Albion highlights today. It became pretty apparent pretty quick that they're a Noel Mazzone offense. Mazzone is the OC at UCLA right now. His stuff became pretty big at Arizona State during the Osweiler years. There's been a big push to market his system to HS & small college teams the past few years. For a significant chunk of your team's budget, they'll walk you thru the ins & outs of the offense and how to install it. It appears Albion is on board. You can check some of that out here.

If you're interested in more resources and tons of cutups of Mazzone stuff, here's a great resource. There's about a 30 minute video in the first article about his #1 concept, shallow cross:

It's good against just about every defense you can throw at it. Can't really play press if the outside dudes can run. Can't play Cover 2 or 4. Cover 3 is kind of your best bet, but you can get in deep doo doo against any 2x2 formation from 1 high safety. #4verts

Tough to tell from highlights, but if Albion is as Mazzone as they look, you'll see Shallow Cross about 20 times on Saturday.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 15, 2015, 07:45:52 pm »
Wabash got a deservedly good draw. Franklin is not in a very good spot. Here's some final Bell thoughts after I rewatched the game this morning:

Wabash OL = very good. We knew that already, but 385 on the ground? Steamrollers. I mentioned it yesterday - DePauw could not shed blocks. They got covered up and driven 3 or 4 yards off the ball with regularity. Pretty vanilla gameplan for Wabash, which has been pretty common in the Bell the past few years. They haven't needed the whole playbook. Mostly IZ, 1 back power, and pin & pull yesterday. I was surprised to not see much frontside G, which has been a staple for them. I saw Olmy give a clinic on frontside G in the off-season. I loved it. I put it in for our team this year and it was our best run play.

Was pretty frustrated with a lack of adjustment by DePauw's D during the course of the first half. Although, I admit that I had been drinking. DePauw did adjust at half. They came out in a 4-4 on Wabash's first drive. Wabash broke a 15 yarder on play 2 of that drive, but other than that, they hit 2 passes from midfield to score. From then on, Wabash's counter to the 4-4 made it a non-factor. Wabash got back in a lot of more of those stack WR formations, including the TE trips with #1 & #2 stacked, which is particularly nasty. Can't defend that stuff with a 4-4. You have to respect the trips. DePauw did. Wabash only threw 2 spot screens out there all day. DePauw capped that stack look with the safety over the top most of the day. After that adjustment to the spread stuff, it was almost all inside zone with some pin & pull sprinkled in. DePauw's 6 couldn't handle Wabash's 6. Just that simple.

I thought Hunt missed several open throws. He wasn't good mechanically early. Everything was high & floating. Looked to me like he was hanging on his back foot a bit. That did get better as the game went on, though. I think if you tell DePauw that they would get to 391 total yards with  147 of those on the ground, they would feel pretty good. Unfortunately, DePauw's 3 turnovers led to 17 Wabash points. And they had to settle for 3 after Hunt missed Hagan wide dang open in the end zone on that corner route going towards the scoreboard.

Just one of those games. Wabash doesn't make any mistakes. Like ever. They're +19 on turnover margin. If you turn it over, and you don't have the dudes to get off the field defensively, you get blown out.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 14, 2015, 03:15:24 pm »
Although the size thing is clearly apparent in the Wabash run game. LG hogs have totally swallowed up DePauw's front 6. Can't shed blocks. Wabash's line is just straight road grading.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 14, 2015, 03:04:34 pm »
They are throwing every punch they have. And they are short. Like, little. Like Legos.

Disagree. This isn't their best offensive football. Defensively though? \_(ツ)_/

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 14, 2015, 02:49:07 pm »
I don't like losing this thing year after year, but I really hate losing it on mistakes. 3 turnovers and a missed wide open TD in the first half. I'd feel ok if DePauw threw every punch they had and came up short. Just tired of losing on stupid stuff. Ugh.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 12, 2015, 02:42:24 am »
Pretty good read in the Crawfordsville paper today about Raeburn's daily schedule.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 11, 2015, 10:40:29 pm »
The more I think about it, it's probably a lot simpler than we think. If Wabash stops DePauw from running power, they probably win. Hunt would have to throw 40 times for 350 with <2 INT otherwise. Possible, but highly unlikely. DePauw runs the power, they win.

North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: November 08, 2015, 10:37:08 pm »
Alright here we go - big Monon preview post. Let's get down to brass tacks.

Wabash has the conference's #1 O in pts. DePauw is #2. DePauw has the conference's #1 O in yards. Wabash is #2. Wabash has the conference's #1 D in every statistical category. DePauw is a pretty distant #2 in pts, rush yards, and sacks. DePauw is 3rd in total yards by 3 yards. Specials are still heavily in Wabash's favor.

So, all that spits out, to me, to Wabash probably being roughly 10-14 points better if all goes according to plan for both sides. Turnovers, penalties, special teams, etc, can swing it one way or the other.

DePauw is #2 in the conference in rush yards. Wabash is #1 in both rush yards on O and rush yards on D. Does DePauw run it for the 211 they average, the 38 that Wabash's D averages, or somewhere in the middle? Anything over 125 on the ground has to feel like a win in that phase, doesn't it? That's probably the most important part of the game to me. I know time of possession can be a very misleading statistic. It doesn't always matter. But I think it does in this instance. If DePauw runs anywhere in the area of 20-25 more plays than Wabash does, then they probably win. If DePauw only runs 50 or so plays, they'll certainly lose. 

I don't think DePauw can hit 7 or 8 long ones. I think the nature of Wabash's defense can schematically open them up for long ones, but the dudes are too good back there. They cover a lot of ground and they're very sound. Gonna be tough to get behind them. DePauw tries for a couple long playaction plays just about every week. I love DePauw's playaction series. It's awesome. I stole it from them and my team runs it now. It's so dirty in to the boundary. Even dirtier when you run it in to a boundary blitz. DePauw will need the playaction Saturday. That said, blitz has been a problem for the DePauw OL in this game the past few years. 7 sacks allowed in the past 4 Bell games. But, I think this is the best DePauw OL in that time period. If they handle the blitz and run it with any success, they'll have a shot at it.

The Wabash O vs DePauw D will be what it always is. DePauw is gonna sit in quarters most of the day and try to get home with the front 4. If they do get home, they'll have a chance. If not, then Wabash probably stays on the field for most of the day. Wabash throws quick game well enough that they can probably either force DePauw out of it or score a ton if they don't come out of it. I'd waste more words here, but seriously, throw slants, hitches, and outs and DePauw will have to adjust.

I think DePauw is getting closer every year. This is probably the best I've felt about one of these in the past 5 years. The number of things that HAVE to go right is shrinking. I don't know if this is the year or not, but if they don't turn it over, I think they've got a shot.

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