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Messages - Old Pal Wes

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1
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 10, 2014, 07:41:18 pm »
If I'm playing a team that I know can't move it on me, I'll kick it on 3rd down because I don't want a return. I want to kick it as far as I can and let that thing roll down the turf all day. I know I'll get a 3 and out from my defense and they'll have to kick it back to me. If they return it, that may put them in a position to get 3 or 7. But, Wabash was having success. So I don't get it.

I don't think taking away a return does any more for you than trying to run a play to get out of the shadow of your goal post. Different strokes for different folks, I guess.

2
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: September 10, 2014, 07:32:53 pm »
NRFP Week 2

1. Mount Union         80 pts  (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. North Central        69 pts  (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3)
3. Wabash                63 pts  (2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5)
4. John Carroll          55 pts  (2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6)
5. Wittenberg           45 pts  (4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8)
6. Wheaton              40 pts  (5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7)
T7. Heidelberg          30 pts  (4, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9)
T7. Illinois Wesleyan 30 pts  (5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8)
9. Mount St Joseph    11 pts (7, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, -, -)
10. Franklin               9 pts  (7, 9, 10, 10, 10, -, -, -)


ARV
Adrian                       3 pts  (9, 10, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Northern            2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Olivet                        2 pts (9, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                       1 pt   (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Usee, NCF, Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, wally_wabash, and myself.

3
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 10, 2014, 10:08:35 am »
We need somebody to create a Pat Signal™ image.


4
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: September 10, 2014, 10:05:08 am »
Waiting on one more.

5
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 06, 2014, 07:45:03 pm »
Wes, isn't 5 man pressure more about whipping people across from you than scheme? Not many schemes work when the other guy beats you

Yes and no. If you're just going to play me straight up as a defense, meaning that you bring dudes in the gaps they line up in, then yes. It's about who's got the bigger stones. But, the more games you use as a defensive front, the less it becomes about that and the more it becomes about exposing schematic weaknesses. Wabash also gets very creative with their games. Lots of slants, angles, and twists with LB blitzes. That's the thing about odd. It's a 3 man front, so your LB blitzes can come from anywhere. It sounds simple to say "well, just block your gap inside out" but that can get tough when you have NO clue where that comes from. Some teams run a very vanilla odd front, which seems like a total waste. Wabash is so good at bringing guys from 2 or even 3 gaps away. Typically you put your least athletic offensive linemen at guard. You want your best athletes at tackle. They have to set the width of the pocket and defend those edge rushers who are basically RB fast anymore. The guards are uncovered vs an odd front, meaning that as a defense, you have the opportunity to make those guys try to make plays in space.

A lot of teams try to pass pro odd with a BOB (big on big) scheme, meaning the tackles lock on to the ends and the center locks on to the nose. Doesn't matter where they go, those guys are man to man with those defenders. Then they leave the guards to pick up any blitzes, typically working inside out. Take any inside blitzer in your area, if one doesn't come, then work out for an edge blitzer. But, then you get in situations like this:


This is a 5 man pressure I've seen from Wabash against these type teams. Center has to work to his left to take the nose. That inside backer to the offense's right hits the B gap hard trying to get the RG to go with him, leaving the A gap wide open for the backside backer. Wabash will figure out how you pass pro, and they will exploit you. It also messes with zone blocking schemes. You've got guys twisting 2 gaps to the zone or away from the zone, which can really confuse a 19 year old kid. Wabash has dudes in that front 7. No doubt about it. But they put those dudes in great situations to succeed schematically. That's the difference.

6
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 06, 2014, 06:55:23 pm »
Wabash shredded on the QB runs today. Lot of success with the Flash series. That's a new wrinkle in their run game. Almost everybody that's in the spread has started running that this year. It's zone read where you read the front side end instead of the backside end. Easy to block, easy to read.

-5 rushing yards for HSC. Think about that. Probably one of the best outside zone teams in the country was in the negative in rushing yards. Wabash didn't win every 1v1 situation in the secondary, but they won a lot of them. They lost a couple more than I expected, but they played very, very well against a Q that's just going to chuck it on you. Wabash got to the Q with a lot of 5 man pressures. I don't care what the offensive scheme is, if you get home with 5 guys, the offense is going to struggle. Again, schematically, that front is really hard to handle.

In other news, thought DePauw looked pretty good today. They were actually out gained by 50 yards. Pretty typical Lynch day. 36 runs at 5 per attempt, 19 passes at almost 7 per attempt. Stayed ahead of the chains most of the day. Got in a lot of 3rd and short situations. Hunt was efficient. He made good decisions and didn't turn it over. Most weeks in this conference, that's all you need.

7
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 05, 2014, 10:48:08 am »
Old Pal Wes - in 140 regular season games under Coach Favret HSC has scored more than 10 points 135 times. They have only been held to less than 10 once in their last 71 regular season games.  That was last season against CNU. A game in which HSC turned the ball over 8 times. If Wabash only scores 21 HSC will win.  The LGs will need 28 with a 3+ in turnovers to win. Anything less - they lose. Offense may typically lag behind defense early in the season. Over the last 14 season openers under Coach Favret HSC has averaged 37 points.   7 times having scored 42 or more points and never been held to 10 or less points.

One of us is going to look pretty silly at 4pm Saturday. For my sake, I hope it's the guy that guarantees the best defense in America surrenders 28.

8
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 05, 2014, 02:20:47 am »
I don't love the idea of using the starting QB as the real punter, but I do see the merit in deterring a punt block attempt by putting your QB back there and basically forcing you to play every fourth down in some sort of "safe" punt defense.  Pros and cons.  Bring it out for the big games, I guess.

It's risk/reward.  If you're in 4th and 7 at midfield, maybe you can catch the defense in the wrong look and get yourself a first down.  But if not, and you kick, and a return does happen, and now your AA quarterback is a defender without the usual protections and niceties typically afforded quarterbacks...well, now anything can happen.  Is it worth maybe possibly torpedoing your season-THIS season with all kinds of potential- for a cheap first down?  It's a remote possibility, sure.  But that's not even on the table if you take your medicine and just punt the thing away.

I'd probably put a block in vs this look anyway. Obviously you take a big risk if you call that in the game, but if you're at a point where you're either desperate or going for the dagger, it'd be worth trying to get a free shot on him.

EDIT: Just to go on record, I'm going around 21-10 or so for the final prediction. Wabash O does what Wabash O is wont to do - grinds a couple drives out, maybe hits a home run or two. Wabash probably scores or sets up at least 1 score defensively. If the specials get crazy, Wabash probably tacks another 10 or 14 on to that number. It's a pretty good HSC D, which y'all discussed earlier. I don't think either side is up around 400 yards. You win these type games in stat categories other than total yards. Nobody better at that than ER. Zero Wabash turnovers means a Wabash win, I think.

9
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 04, 2014, 07:14:44 pm »
Old Pal please tell me you were not up til 2:18 am breaking down film in order to reply to a wisecrack remark I made about the HSC offense.

Nope. I work thirds. Just part of my normal day.

Also, thanks for the new sig line wally. haha.

10
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 04, 2014, 02:18:51 am »
I've watched film too. Your right Wittenberg is not anything like HSC. You'll see more open back fields than 2 TE sets.  Preparing for HSC is not easy to replicate. 100% non-traditional. It's a cross between, the spread, run and shoot, razzle dazzle, heavy metal and chaos.

I have no clue what any of this means. Non-traditional doesn't mean it's hard. I don't think it's even that non-traditional. Y'all get in a few different personnel groups and lots of formations within those groups. It's the same base plays out of multiple looks. It's mostly 2 back in one way or another. 3 WR & a wing seemed to be the most common. Saw some wing & TE looks or tight bunch to try to outgap people. Saw some 1 back & 2 TE. Also did see basic spread stuff - 2x2 & 3x1. It's a kitchen sink offense formationally. Lots of those will motion back to the normal stuff (example - starting in 2x2 but motioning the fullback back in to run iso/power.) I haven't seen anything exotic run game wise. Saw some power, iso, outside zone, and a few counters. Actually, you're a really good outside zone team, especially when you shrink the formation down. I think it's OZ first to set up the power. Vertical passing game is a threat from just about every formation. Didn't see a ton of true dropbacks. Did see lots and lots of playaction. Y'all love to try to get the inside receiver through the top. Lots of double fades to the 2 receiver side. Or curl/fade. Or post/post. Q can throw the deep ball very well. He wants to hit home runs. He will take chances with the ball when his receiver may not be winning. It's definitely a run first offense. Then try to hit big ones in the playaction game.

I expect Wabash to get exotic up front. They already do a lot of that. They show tons of slants, twists, blitzes. That's why odd front is such a pain in the ass. They're going to make those OL think about all the gap scheme assignments. I doubt Wabash is going to let themselves get beat in the run game. Not to say that HSC can't just line up in 3x1 and sling it. They can. But they don't appear nearly as comfortable doing that as they do in 2 back running OZ and power. Wabash will probably try to do it with 7 up front if they can. I expect lots of slants and twists to try to mess with the fullback's kickout on power and the OL's zone rules. Schematically, I don't think it's anything earth-shattering from HSC. They've got some dudes. Either they're going to make plays or they're not.

11
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 03, 2014, 10:44:34 pm »
Also, if memory serves, Wabash led the NCAA last year in turnover margin. Across all divisions. I severely doubt HSC ends this thing +3 in turnovers.

12
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 03, 2014, 10:05:47 pm »
I agree with no. HSC would have to play Wabash at least twice to get to a number that starts with 4. Wabash played a horrible game against one of the best offenses I've ever seen at the D3 level (2013 Wittenberg) and that ended up being 35. HSC's Q isn't Reed Florence. He's really, really good. Good skill players, too. I've seen tape on HSC. But it ain't last year's Witt.

13
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 03, 2014, 01:46:48 pm »
While I wait for other game notes to get out there, I pieced this together...

Wabash's average starting field position for 2013.  This is ridiculous.  Could have been more ridiculous if I included "drives" that started in an opponent's endzone, which I didn't. 

Hanover - W49
Denison - W35
Allegheny - W46
Wooster - W44
OWU - W39
Kenyon - W37
Oberlin - W49
Hiram - 50
Witt - W20
DePauw - W35

Season average- W40

I've highlighted Kenyon and Witt because those are the two teams that Wabash didn't turnover at all.  Witt is also the only team last year that didn't allow Wabash to start at least one drive in plus territory.  Witt is also the only team that beat Wabash.  This is not a coincidence. 

That's crazy.  They started, on average, every drive from their 40 yard line.  Think about that.

This is why I believe turnover margin is the most important statistic. If you get a boatload of turnovers, some of them are bound to be in good enough field position to score. That doesn't have anything to do with how good your offense is.

14
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: September 02, 2014, 08:50:02 am »
I'm the 4 for Franklin. I'm always that guy with them, though. I must be the President of the Mike Leonard Fan Club.

15
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: September 01, 2014, 03:30:43 pm »
Here's the Pre-Season North Region Fan Poll:

1.  Mount Union         80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2.  North Central        70 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3)
T3. John Carroll         54 pts (2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6)
T3. Wabash               54 pts (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 7)
5.  Wittenberg           41 pts (3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 8, 9, -)
6.  Wheaton              39 pts (5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 8)
T7. Franklin               35 pts (4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9)
T7. Heidelberg           35 pts (3, 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9)
9.   Illinois Wesleyan  15 pts (7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, -, -)
10. Wooster                7 pts (8, 10, 10, 10, 10, -, -)

ARV:
Albion                         4 pts (9, 10, 10, -, -, -, -, -)
Mount St. Joseph         4 pts  (7, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Olivet                          1 pt  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Adrian                         1 pt  (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The North Region Fan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, USee, Mr. Ypsi, smedindy, wally_wabash, and myself.

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