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Messages - Ralph Turner

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1
Mideast Region / Re: BB: OAC: Ohio Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 10:57:41 am »
Updating the board with a discussion we had earlier in the season.

The OAC does a full round robin regular season with a single DH format.  The reason the math is important from day 1 is because only the top 4 teams (out of 10) make the conference tournament.  Leaving 6 teams out coupled with the way the OAC is typically aligned competitively often means there is very little difference between #4 and #5-7 or even #8.  There are ups and downs for most of the schools, but nearly every year the conference is a dog fight just to make the top 4.  The "math" not to oversimplify it is basically you need to sweep #9 and 10 and go .500 against everyone else.  11-7 nearly always lands you in the top 4.  So my point with JCU today was that most years Cap is in the bottom 1/3 so at WORST you have to split with them.  Likely you need to sweep them.  So you may be 2 games back of the top 4 out of the gate.  That's not a great spot.

Many years ago the regular season was just an 18 game corination for Etta, but those days are gone.  The conference is top to bottom much more competitive.  As a fan I can't complain about that!

Thanks. Makes sense and I now have a metric to follow the season...  11-7.
No. 1 Otterbein (14-4), No. 2 Marietta (12-6), No. 3 Baldwin Wallace (11-7), No. 4 Ohio Northern (11-7)
Sounds like his advice was pretty accurate.   8-)


See above


So who is the favorite in the OAC this year?  BW and Otterbein appear to have a lot of talent returning.  Any besides those two or perennial contender Marietta going to make a run at the OAC title?

I would say Otterbein, BW then ONU.  The OAC as usual will be a meat grinder again this year.  Etta is always tough.  Berg has a couple nice SP.  The lone layup in Wilm may not be for long with the long-time UD HC taking over there.  That'd make what seemed impossible, possible...the conference somehow becoming more competitive from top to bottom.
We have talked before about the magic number of conference wins to earn the number 1 seed in the OAC.

How many will it be in 2019?

Thanks

Each team has 2 series left with the exception of John Carroll and Otterbein whose series was canceled.

ONU should finish 12-6 (0.667), but the fact that there will not be 2 losses to inflict from the JCU-Ott series might leave ONU out of the tourney.

Ott  (7-5) has BW and Etta. I think that they do not get in unless they sweep both series to finish at 11-5 (0.688). Going 10-6 leaves then at 0.625. (Ott split the series with Heidelberg and lost the series to ONU.)

JCU (8-4) probably needs to reach 11-5 (0.688) to get to the playoffs. They play Etta and BW.

The magic number this year is "( > .667)".



2
New York Region / Re: BB: SUNYAC
« on: April 22, 2019, 05:20:33 pm »
I like P'burgh's chances.

Thanks for posting.

3
I viewed the Caltech home page here on D3baseball.com and saw this news release.

Quote
April 1, 2019
Caltech Beats '17 National Champs CLU for First Time in Over 50 Years
The Caltech Baseball team made history once again this year, this time scoring perhaps the biggest victory since the program's formative years nearly a century ago.

No, it is not an April Fool's joke.

Congrats to Cal Tech

With 5 conference wins over 5 different teams, Caltech is no joke.
I am reminded of a comment that Texas Longhorn head coach Darrell Royal made in 1961 after his #1 ranked team was upset by TCU.

″(TCU) is like a bunch of cockroaches. Itís not what they eat and tote off, itís what they fall into and mess up that hurts.Ē

There may be a team or two that looks at that Cal Tech loss as a coulda/shoulda/woulda game.

4
I viewed the Caltech home page here on D3baseball.com and saw this news release.

Quote
April 1, 2019
Caltech Beats '17 National Champs CLU for First Time in Over 50 Years
The Caltech Baseball team made history once again this year, this time scoring perhaps the biggest victory since the program's formative years nearly a century ago.

No, it is not an April Fool's joke.

Congrats to Cal Tech

5
South Region football / Re: FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference
« on: April 21, 2019, 01:27:52 am »
Bob, thanks for that analysis.

6
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« on: April 20, 2019, 10:43:20 pm »
The Northwest Conference tourney is scheduled for April 26-28, 2019, at the #1 seed.

 Whitworth   24   19-5           0.792      22-12   0.647   
 Pacific (Ore.)   24   15-9           0.625      23-16   0.590   
 Whitman           24   15-9           0.625      20-16   0.556   
 Pac Lutheran   24   14-10   0.583      22-14   0.611

   
 George Fox   24   14-10   0.583      22-15   0.595   
 Willamette   24   14-10   0.583      17-15   0.531   

The participants have not been listed yet, but Pac Lu is 2-1 against both teams.
George Fox went 1-5 against the other two including being swept by Willamette.
I assume that George Fox is eliminated and then Pac Lu gets the tie-breaker because they won the head-to-head against Willamette.

7
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« on: April 20, 2019, 10:31:56 pm »
The SCIAC post season tourney will be held on campus sites of the #1 and #2 seeds, according to the SCIAC website on May 10-12.

CHAPMAN           13-5   0.722      24-9   0.727   
LA VERNE           12-6   0.667      25-9   0.735   
CAL LUTHERAN   12-6   0.667           23-11 0.676   
OCCIDENTAL   11-7   0.611           23-11  0.676 

With 6 games to play C-M-S and Whittier are on the verge of elimination.

C-M-S           8-10   0.444          15-12-1   0.554   
WHITTIER      8-10   0.444          18-16   0.529   

8
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« on: April 20, 2019, 10:22:32 pm »
SCAC tourney is scheduled May 3-5, a 4-team double elimination format, with the 4 bids already clinched.

TLU has a virtual 2 game lead over Trinity by virtue of winning the season series, 2 games to 1.

Southwestern (9-6)  hosts Centenary LA (8-7) for the 3rd seed. The winner of this 3-game series gets 3rd seed.

Hmmm, who or which pitcher would you rather face in the first round?

An Austin Smith / Nathan Malinovsky match up would be fun in the first round!

9
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« on: April 20, 2019, 06:08:40 pm »
Tourney time is around the corner.

The ASC will come down to the last weekend to settle which 2 teams will host the first weekend of 4-team tourneys. Those winners will then play best 2-of-3 for the Pool A bid the next weekend.

U Ozarks (7-11 /  14-22) needs to sweep McMurry in Abilene next weekend for a chance at a playoff slot.

LeTourneau (9-9 / 20 - 17) hosts UTD. LeTourneau has a magic number of 2 with wins over UTD or one UOz loss.
With one LeTU win and finishing in a tie with UOz at 10-11, we would be deep in the ASC Playoff handbook for tie-breakers. There is no head-to head, so the second tie-breaker is record against the highest seeded team until the tie is broken.

UT-D is (10-8 / 18-18) but has the 3-0 sweep over UOzarks in the regular season for that head-to-head tie-breaker.

A three way tie between UT-D, LeTU, and UOz at 10-11 would also be deep into the tie-breakers.  The best 2 teams would advance.

*Howard Payne           14-4   0.778      21-12   0.636   hosts HSU for 3 games
*East Texas Baptist   15-5   0.750      26-10   0.722        at LaCollege for 3 games   
*Concordia (Texas)   13-5   0.722      27-9           0.750         at UMHB for 3 games   
*Louisiana College   14-7   0.667      27-9           0.750         hosts ETBU for 3 games
*Hardin-Simmons   12-7   0.632          18-16        0.529   at HPU for 3 games. Sweeping HPU leapfrogs HSU ahead of HPU by 1/2 game
*Texas-Dallas           10-8   0.556          18-18   0.500        hosts LeTU; has clinched
*Sul Ross State         11-10   0.524      15-19   0.441        has finished conference play; hosts UT-Tyler    
LeTourneau            9-9   0.500      20-17   0.541   at UTDallas; needs two wins clinch the last spot

(* = Clinched playoff spot)
   
Univ of the Ozarks   7-11   0.389      14-22   0.389   

HSU had 2 games with UMHB canceled. That probably hurt them with respect to host a first round tourney. HSU may have had 2 more wins.

HSU can host a first weekend tourney if:

HSU sweeps HPU, to get to 15-7
CTX loses 2 games to UMHB to fall to 14-7

Then:

LaCollege sweeps ETBU to get 17-7
ETBU wins at least one game against LaCollege to get to 17-7.

Getting the full 3-game series in Pineville and at UTD next weekend are crucial for that last playoff spot and possibly to determine who hosts the first round of the tourney.

Conference tie-breaker policy:

http://www.ascsports.org/sports/2014/7/24/_0724143852.aspx


Footnote: The conference standings are impacted by teams playing UT-Tyler in the 2019 schedule. Games against UT-Tyler do not count as conference games, because of UT-Tyler's move to D-2.  Therefore some teams played 24 conference games; others played 21. HSU and UMHB  had a DH canceled because of weather.

10
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« on: April 19, 2019, 03:19:22 pm »
In the 3rd annual Great Lakes Invitational, Dec. 28-29 at Wooster, the host Scots will play Whitworth and Keene State, while Marietta will face York (PA) and Salisbury.  Not all of those teams will be in the top 25, but they are still intriguing match-ups. 

https://twitter.com/OACBBallShow/status/1108534826754338816
Those tourneys look to the target-rich for Regional Ranked Opponents

11
West Region / Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« on: April 19, 2019, 03:29:11 am »
Having beaten LeTourneau 15-3 in the opener, CTX is down 6-4 going into the bottom of the 8th in the nightcap. They score 1 in the bottom of the 8th. Down 6-5 in the bottom of the 9th they get a walk, a SAC bunt single and then SAC bunt RBI to tie. CTX gets another BB and then Reed Carlton gets a walk-off 3 run HR for the 9-6 win.

There is a good chance that CTX will finish the regular season 30-9 (16-5) if they beat LeTU tomorrow and sweep UMHB next weekend.

16-5 may let CTX host one 4-team bracket of the ASC Playoffs.

HPU, ETBU LaCollege and HSU still are in contention to host a 4-team bracket, too.

12
East Region football / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: April 18, 2019, 07:55:10 pm »
I enjoyed the IntheD3FBHuddLLe podcast.

As for Louisiana College playing Stetson, I wonder if they just could not find an opponent.

With the restoration of the 10-team ASC football conference (adding associates Southwestern and Texas Lutheran), there are only 2 weekends to find a game, and there are not many options for the Wildcats for a non-conference game.

Former opponent Millsaps is playing cross-town rival Belhaven and Westminster MO, which is likely a more winnable game.

Former opponent Huntingdon is playing in-state rival Birmingham-Southern and Guilford. (Huntingdon probably wanted some variety.)

LaCollege played Wesley in 2014. (No rematch here.)

The recent other non-conference games have been against Alcorn State and several NAIA schools.

Out here on the archipelago, it is tough to find opponents that nearby and of similar mission and vision.

Thanks for the excellent podcast. (I am really looking forward to the Rowan Linfield game.)

13
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Conference changes
« on: April 16, 2019, 04:33:10 pm »
Just moving this forward (again). I am adding Franciscan's move to the Pres AC in 2020-21.


Provisional Pipeline for 2018-2019
First year full members: Alfred State, Illinois Tech, Iowa Wesleyan, McMurry (reclassifying)
*4th year provisional members: Belhaven
*3rd year provisional members: none
2nd year provisional members: Brevard, Dean, Pfeiffer
1st year provisional members: SUNY-Delhi, Johnson and Wales (Col.)
Exploratory: Pratt, University of St Thomas (TX), Mississippi University for Women.
*Games against Year 3 and 4 provisional members count the same as games against full-members for regional-ranking and tournament selection purposes

Conference Changes Starting in 2019-2020
Alfred State leaves the ACAA for the AMCC
Benedictine leaves D3 for D2
Frostburg State leaves D3 for D2
Manhattanville leaves the MACF for the SKY
New Rochelle (IND) closes
Newbury (NECC) closes
Penn State-Harrisburg leaves the CAC for a return to the NEAC
Southern Vermont (NECC) closes
Staten Island leaves D3 for D2 (plays full D3 schedule. Not eligible for post-season)
Stevens leaves the E8 for the MACF
St. Elizabeth leaves the NEAC for the CSAC
SUNY-Delhi joins the NAC
Texas-Tyler leaves D3 for D2
Thomas More possibly leaves D3 for the NAIA

Provisional Pipeline for 2019-2020
First year full members: (presume Belhaven)
*4th year provisional members: (presume none)
*3rd year provisional members:  (presume Brevard, Dean, Pfeiffer)
2nd year provisional members: (presume SUNY-Delhi, Johnson and Wales (Col.))
1st year provisional members: Pratt, University of St Thomas (TX), Mississippi University for Women.
Exploratory: Bob Jones, Lindenwood-Belleville, Warren Wilson
*Games against Year 3 and 4 provisional members count the same as games against full-members for regional-ranking and tournament selection purposes

Conference Changes Starting in 2020-2021
Keuka leaves the NEAC for the E8
SNC moving from the MWC to the NACC
York PA moving from the CAC to the MAC Commonwealth

Franciscan moving from AMCC to Pres AC

14
South Region football / Re: FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference
« on: April 16, 2019, 04:07:27 pm »
While it does not impact FOOTBALL at all, the PAC today added Franciscan University as a full conference member.

Several sports will start conference play next year, all others will join for the 2020-2021 season.

http://www.pacathletics.org/news/2019/4/16/general-pac-adds-franciscan-as-full-member.aspx
Bob, thanks for the update.

May I ask you to share some of the reasons that Franciscan would move to the Pres AC? (What were the conversations that you could speculate would happen in the hallowed halls in Steubenville about the advantages to moving to the Pres AC?)

What is in it for the Presidents AC?  Which sports strengthen? Geography? Travel partner balance?

Who in the Pres AC would want them?

I am just trying to get my mind around the mission/vision issues in that part of the country.

Thanks

15
West Region / Re: BB: SCAC: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
« on: April 14, 2019, 11:32:42 pm »
Gave up 5 ER to Centenary today in the first 3.0 IP but shut them down in the rest of a CG win (8-5).
TLU seems to have the offense to keep any pitcher close.

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