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Messages - Christan Shirk

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1
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: October 18, 2017, 08:43:44 pm »
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL RANKINGS
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/Men/regional-rankings-1 / http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3

Rank   School   Division III   Overall    SOS
1.   Messiah   13-1-0   13-1-0   0.606
2.   Johns Hopkins   11-1-2   11-1-2   0.560
3.   Gettysburg   11-2-0   11-2-0   0.580
4.   Lycoming   14-1-0   14-1-0   0.542
5.   Haverford   8-3-3   8-3-3   0.621
6.   Dickinson   9-4-1   9-4-1   0.589
7.   Drew   14-0-1   14-0-1   0.515
8.   Lebanon Valley   9-2-1   9-2-1   0.522
9.   Elizabethtown   8-5-1   8-5-1   0.602
10.   Eastern   10-3-0   10-3-0   0.497 

Data Sheets: http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/men/Data_10-18/Mid-Atlantic_Men_Data_10-18-17.pdf / http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankingsRedirect&sportCode=MSO&region=15&division=3

So the SOS you show here is only for conference SOS according to the data sheets right?  I assume out of conference SOS (also in Data) is considered as well in the ranking?  Eastern has a .573 out of conf SOS. Maybe that boosts them

No, the SOS shown is a team's overall D-III SOS.  That is, the SOS based on all its D-III opponents.  It just neglects D-I, D-II, NAIA, etc. opponents.  The non-conference SOS is a secondary criteria that has been added this year.  It's is an indicator of how much a team sought to challenge itself with the part of the schedule they have control over.  If a team is in a weak conference that hurts their SOS, the non-conference SOS can illustrate that the team did a good job of trying to seek out challenging opponents to test themselves.  So if the committee can't decide between two teams based on primary criteria, something like this can be a tie-breaker.

2
Men's soccer / Re: 2017 Season - National Perspective
« on: October 18, 2017, 08:14:26 pm »
Hmmm..That is a first...So we do not have an answer yet

The Championship Manual has only ever given the criteria for making at-large selections and then has always said that the regional rankings are done using the same criteria as for the at-large selections. That worked in the past when the "results vs. ranked" criteria was written such that it could be applied to both selections and rankings.  However, the new "results vs. ranked" criteria for this season specifically says that a "ranked team" is defined based on both the third weekly rankings and the final rankings (that are done before making the at-large selections, but only published afterwards).  Obviously, you can't use RvR data based on future rankings, so none of the four rankings can follow the exact literal criteria that the at-large selections will be based on.  But they may follow it in principle; that is, the RvR data for the weekly rankings might be based on the prior two rankings (if two prior rankings exist).  But until we get clarification from the committee, we can't be sure.  Now, for the 2nd weekly rankings, there is only one prior ranking, so we can assume that RvR data used for determining the rankings next week will be based on who was ranked in this week's rankings.

3
Men's soccer / Re: 2017 Season - National Perspective
« on: October 18, 2017, 07:21:47 pm »
I forget are they doing RvR for just that weeks teams or is it where once ranked always ranked

http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2017/about

4
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: October 17, 2017, 12:34:38 pm »
I still think out of all these teams Haverford has had the toughest schedule.  On the National Perspective chat they are speaking of schedules and I would put the Fords up there with anyone especially since they played a majority of them on the road.  I know 8-3-3 isnít great but if they finish with three wins and get to 11-3-3 I would think they would be higher on this list.

@Cabrini
N vs Messiah
N vs Etown
@JHU
@Scranton
@Getty
@Muhls
@Camden
@Drew
@WAC
@Dickinson

Looks like the Haverford coach took a page out of Serpone's book up at Amherst, scheduling as many non-conference games away as possible to boost the SOS ! ! !   Before this year, Haverford's SOS would have been especially high given all those away matches, but now that the home/away multiplier has been eliminated it won't be quite as high.

Disappointing they got ride of the home/away multiplier. I think there is a true difference between road games and home games and to place them as equal doesn't make much sense to me. Does anyone know why they got rid of this multiplier?


The stated reason is as follows (quoted from REPORT OF THE NCAA DIVISION III CHAMPIONSHIPS COMMITTEE SEPTEMBER 12-13, 2016, MEETING):
Quote
The committee approved that the current strength of schedule multiplier be eliminated from the strength of schedule calculation, effective with the 2017 championship. Due to a revised calculation from the original method, the current strength of schedule multiplier is no longer achieving the intended effect as when the multiplier was implemented for the men in 2011.

It's not clear how the change in the calculation of the OWP's and OOWP's that occurred a couple years ago could be the cause of the multiplier not achieving it's intended effect. 

What we have pointed out at D3soccer.com since the multipliers were introduced is that is the multipliers are too drastic.  The multipliers were 0.85 for home games and 1.25 for away games with neutral site games being unfactored.  So there is a 40% difference between the home and away multipliers, meaning an away game is worth nearly 50% more than a home game (1.25/0.85 = 1.47). Therefore, travelling to a team with a .550 winning percentage is worth more to a team's SOS than playing a home game against a team with a .800 winning percentage.  That just doesn't seem right.  It doesn't pass the smell test.  And yet, that's what was used for 6 years.  I'm not sure how much the multipliers influenced scheduling, but from the hypothetical just presented you can see how a coach can elevate his SOS number without really making his schedule more challenging.  Our concern, however, has been that the regional rankings and at-large selections are based on SOS numbers that do not truly reflect of the difficulty of a schedule as that hypothetical example illustrates.  Seems a statistical analysis of results over the past 5 years would have been able to guide the selection of more reasonable, statistical-based multipliers.  And the a statistical analysis was an action item, but no indication of the results of that analysis, but in the end they scraped the multipliers entirely.

5
Men's soccer / Re: 2017 Great Lakes Region
« on: September 20, 2017, 07:21:19 pm »
September 20, 2017
Significant Digits, Vol. 1, Issue 1
The Great Lakes Region by the Numbers
By D3soccer.com contributor


It's new; it's different. It may be a one-off, or it may become a re-occurring column. Check out Significant Digits: the Great Lakes Region by the Numbers, and let us know what you think.

6
Men's soccer / Re: 2017 Season - National Perspective
« on: September 06, 2017, 09:23:42 am »
Due to being behind schedule and short-staffed, the D3soccer.com Top 25 will only start next week.

Whenever the season basically starts on a weekend, there's a debate whether it makes sense to do a poll that Monday (or Tuesday in case of Labor Day) or wait a week.  Since D3soccer.com does not do a preseason Top 25, I usually lean towards doing a Top 25 even after just a weekend of games. This year that really wasn't an option for us, unfortunately.

7
Men's soccer / Re: D3soccer.com All-America Teams, POYs, and COY
« on: February 21, 2017, 05:54:44 pm »
Even though we are far, far into the off-season, hopefully there will be some good discussion about the All-America selections once fans realize the teams have been posted.  We at D3soccer.com enjoy the reactions and feedback. We feel very good about the teams we put out each year, but please know that no one person on our staff (nor any of the coaches or SIDs that participate in our process) agrees with all the selections and can personally defend why each player was (or wasn't) selected and which team they were placed on. So don't expect myself or anyone else to officially make the case for or against any players. However, we may carefully chime in with either (a) our personal opinion about the strengths and weaknesses of a given player's case for selection or (b) guesses as to why a player found favor (or not) with our panel of voters.

Naturally, the D3soccer.com All-America teams will get compared the NSCAA's teams.  Our process is certainly quite different from theirs, and there are probably also some other differences in philosophy and expectations for the awards.  With a different process, maybe even a different philosophy, and a different set of coaches, SIDs, and staff members contributing, it's unrealistic to expect the two sets of All-America teams to match. And the fact that our process starts after the NCAA tournament (more by necessity than by choice) and takes into consideration the teams' results and players' performances in the tournament, further increases the probability of differences between the two sets of All-America teams.

There are some specific, basic things to keep in mind if comparing the D3Soccer.com All-American selections to the NSCAA's teams.  First, as is tradition, D3soccer.com holds its honors to a strict eleven players per team and 33 players overall.  So keep that in mind when comparing the D3Soccer.com teams to the NSCAA teams which typically include +/- 15 players per team for a grand total of approx. 45 honorees (i.e. a whole extra team's worth of players).  So it's a fairer comparison to only consider the NSCAA's first and second teams against D3Soccer.com's three teams.

Second, D3soccer.com's ratio of forwards, midfielders, and defenders is intentionally kept reasonably close to the ratio typically fielded in actual games.  The NSCAA teams tend to include a rather high percentage of forwards.  For example, this year their first team has eight forwards out of a total of 16 first team selections, or 50%.  D3soccer.com only has eight forwards selected total for all three teams this year (24%) as has been the case most every year, with just two or three forwards on each team of eleven players.

We have no quotas or minimums and maximums for regional distribution/representation. We want the teams to represent the best players across the country and if some regions seem to be have more top level players than some other regions in a given year, then those regions will have more representatives on the teams. We do work as best we can to root out any regional bias in our final selections. We are realistic and expect that most coaches and SIDs exhibit some natural, unintentional bias for players they have faced and/or know about from their conference or region. It's much easier to feel strongly about and vote for a top player you've seen play than a supposed top player from another region that you only know from a stat sheet. Through both a diverse panel of voters and by being conscientious and on the lookout for bias that favors or disadvantages any region, we hope that all regions, conferences, and teams have been given a fair shot at having their top players selected for our All-America teams.

That said, the selections ultimately come down to the opinions of our panelists and D3soccer.com staff.  All involved are human and are just a small sub-set of D-III soccer fans, each with his/her own limited perspective and exposure to players across the nation.  There is no genius super-fan on our staff who's watched several hundred matches throughout the season and can rely on first-hand observation to compare all candidates. Nor is there a sophisticated algorithm or computer program to scientifically compare players' performances and identify the most deserving honorees.  No, this is a very subjective (and imperfect) endeavor. As such, do some deserving players get left out and/or overlooked? Sure, . . . for all sorts of reasons.

We take the task of naming All-Americans very seriously and go about it as diligently as we know how and are able (given a whole host of limiting factors). But we don't take ourselves too seriously, i.e. we don't think we or our process yields perfect, indisputable, infallible results. We do not think in terms of being the final authority on these matters. We only want to promote Division III soccer and do our best to recognize and honor the top student-athletes in Division III menís and womenís soccer each year, meaning absolutely no disrespect to all the other talented, hard-working players who we do not select, some of whom very well may be as good and as deserving as some of those we did select. These are our All-America teams, the D3soccer.com All-America teamsónothing more, nothing less.

And it's exactly because we take the task seriously without taking ourselves too seriously that we welcome and encourage fans to critique our selections and to voice their agreements and disagreements with the reasoning behind those opinions. It's all good as long as the promotion of certain players is not advanced by bashing and disparaging other players, which is unnecessary, disrespectful, and simply not cool. So have at it.  Tell us and each other what you think.  What did we get right and what did we get wrong, in your opinion?  Who would you have included that we did not, and why?

8
Men's soccer / Re: D3Soccer.com All-America Teams, POYs, and COY
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:19:06 pm »
February 21, 2017
2016 D3soccer.com Men's All-America teams

2016 MEN'S PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Forward: Lucas Terci (Sr.), Montclair State
Midfielder: Jacob Bender  (Sr.), Messiah
Defender: Trent Vegter  (So.), Calvin
Goalkeeper: Scott Greenwood  (Sr.), Tufts


2016 MEN'S ALL-AMERICANS

FIRST TEAM
  F 
Lucas Terci **
  Sr. 
Montclair State
  F 
Matt Kinkopf
  Sr. 
Ohio Northern
  F 
Max Lopez
  So. 
Chicago
  M 
Jacob Bender
  Sr. 
Messiah
  M 
Pat Devlin
  Sr. 
Connecticut Col.
  M 
Austin Bitta
  Sr. 
Carthage
  M 
Nicco Capotosto
  So. 
Chicago
  D 
Trent Vegter
  So. 
Calvin
  D 
Mark Heydt
  Sr. 
St. Thomas
  D 
Henry Myers
  Jr. 
Kenyon
  GK 
Scott Greenwood
  Sr. 
Tufts

SECOND TEAM
  F 
Nick Kapetanos
  Jr. 
Benedictine
  F 
Fabio DeSousa
  Fr. 
Rutgers-Newark
  F 
Caleb Lucas
  Sr. 
Maryville (Tenn.)
  M 
Josh Ocel *
  Sr. 
Brandeis
  M 
Isky Van Doorne
  Sr. 
Calvin
  M 
Jimmy Grace
  Sr. 
Chris. Newport
  D 
Daniel Sullivan
  Sr. 
Tufts
  D 
Anthony Passiatore
  Sr. 
Oneonta State
  D 
Will Sjaastad
  So. 
Rowan
  D 
Laurence Wyke
  So. 
Trinity (Texas)
  GK 
Connor Young
  Jr. 
Cortland State

THIRD TEAM
  F 
Gonzalo Hernandez
  Sr. 
Dubuque
  F 
Braden Andryk
  Jr. 
Milwaukee Engr.
  M 
Mohamed Kenawy
  So. 
Mass-Boston
  M 
Caleb Cole
  Sr. 
Gordon
  M 
Soren Frykholm
  Sr. 
Colorado College
  M 
Bryce Ciambella
  Sr. 
Amherst
  D 
Jackson Lenhart
  Sr. 
Amherst
  D 
Wyatt Fabian
  Jr. 
Franklin & Marshall
  D 
Thomas Salamone
  Sr. 
Lynchburg
  D 
Dakota Rosenberg
  Jr. 
Messiah
  GK 
Michael King
  Sr. 
Clarkson

* previous D3soccer.com All-America honors


2016 MEN'S COACH OF THE YEAR
Jon Lowery, St. Thomas (20-2-3) - 2016 National Semifinalist

9
Men's soccer / Re: All-American Teams
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:12:25 pm »

10
Men's soccer / D3soccer.com All-America Teams, POYs, and COY
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:10:43 pm »
Well, just when you were starting to forget that our website even existed and that we do All-America teams . . . .

February 21, 2017
2016 D3soccer.com Men's All-America teams

Sorry for the  l - o - n - g  delay.  Real job, family, holidays, etc.  Been a real tough year and last few months.

11
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: December 01, 2016, 09:47:38 am »
The second two coaches interviews . . .

December 1, 2016
Interview: Michael Coven, Brandeis men's coach
By Ryan Harmanis

December 1, 2016
Interview: Ryan Souders, Calvin men's coach
By Ryan Harmanis

12
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 30, 2016, 10:05:31 pm »
And the second of the four interviews with the Final Four men's head coaches is posted . . .

November 30, 2016
Interview: Josh Shapiro, Tufts men's coach
By Ryan Harmanis

13
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 30, 2016, 09:26:37 am »
Apologies that D3soccer.com's tournament coverage this year has been running behind schedule.  Lots of OT at my paying job and family life have made it impossible for me to keep up this year, and it seems all our staff/contributors have less time to devote to the site this year.  Anyway, we just published the first of four interviews with the Final Four men's head coaches.  Ryan does an excellent job with these.

November 30, 2016
Interview: Jon Lowery, St. Thomas men's coach
By Ryan Harmanis

14
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 09, 2016, 01:10:40 pm »
One more quick thing that I noticed...Is this new?

Transcontinental Quadrant


I never remember this? Just an interesting side note as it looks like they dropped the West name...

The names of the quadrants are not given by the NCAA and therefore are not official. It's just something we at D3soccer.com do so we have some way of referring to them. And sometimes the teams and the pods of a quadrant are so scattered that there's just no name that fits except something like "Transcontinental".  We used that twice before for the men in 2011 (http://www.d3soccer.com/ncaatournament/2011/men/2011-mens-bracket) and 2012 (http://www.d3soccer.com/ncaatournament/2012/men/2012-mens-bracket), but have avoided using it until again until this year. We've used it for the women in 2011 and 2014.

There are no set four names we use every year.  Almost every year two of the quadrants could both be given the designation "Northeast", but then we look to see if one could be named "New England" or "Mid-Atlantic", and if not maybe "East" or "Atlantic".  And then there's always one quadrant (sometimes almost two) that could go "Central", "North Central" or Midwest" with one designation perhaps seeming a little more appropriate given the mix of teams and pod sites that year.  Sometimes we can use "Great Lakes" or "West", etc.  I probably over-think the naming, but it is nice to have a name for referencing purposes, especially when we get to the sectionals.

15
Men's soccer / Re: Liberty League
« on: November 02, 2016, 11:38:49 pm »
I'm looking at the East region rankings and they're sitting at #2 below Cortland and above Oneonta.

You must be looking at the one that doesn't count.  Vassar is at #7 in the NCAA rankings (as opposed to NSCAA).

stlawus, might I suggest one of these:

October 15, 2016
Coming Wednesday: the rankings that matter
By Christan Shirk


2016 NCAA Regional Rankings

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