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Messages - Christan Shirk

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1
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: Yesterday at 03:31:37 pm »
I don't know the details of the how they determine the SOS, . . .

You can check out the Strength-of-Schedule (SOS) calculation in the "Strength-of-Schedule" section on this D3soccer.com webpage or go right to the source, Appendix D (pg. 45) of the Division III Soccer Pre-Championships Manual.

2
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: Yesterday at 03:29:24 pm »
D3soccer.com has been informed by the D-III Men's Soccer Committee that no .500 SOS threshold exists in order to be ranked.  Despite our request for an alternate explanation for Luther's drop from the No. 2 position in the first North Region rankings to unranked in the second weekly rankings, the Committee declined to provide any explanation on the grounds that the committee's conversations/discussions are intended to be confidential.

3
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 22, 2014, 04:48:01 pm »

FW or Christan,

Does the SOS have to be over .500 or was that modified?

As I mentioned in my previous response, that policy was scrapped after two weeks of rankings, and as far as I can tell, never introduced again.  It was always a bit odd and fishy given it was not coming from the governing Championship Manual, so I'm not sure what their basis for thinking they could apply such a criteria was.

4
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 22, 2014, 04:45:04 pm »
SOS is massively important to the committee.  A sub .500 SOS is a huge strike against a team.  (Several years ago, the committee temporary instituted a policy whereby any team with a sub .500 SOS was ineligible to be ranked and thereby ineligible to be selected for an at-large berth.  However, after the first and second regional rankings that year, they reversed course, probably due to the outcry as high-profil nationally ranked teams Dominican and Swarthmore, among others, were being excluded as a result.)

While the committee was still considering who to rank, there was no ranking to serve as basis for a record vs. ranked.  So until you've had an initial ranking, this criteria can not exist.  This will show up in the second and third rankings and be used for the final "secret" rankings that are used for making at-large selections.  Wabash's win over Kenyon will help them next week.  Record vs. ranked also seems to be very important to the committee.

Wabash is probably going to need some more wins over ranked teams to ovecome their low SOS.  And even then they would probably still be on the bubble.  Next week will give us a better feel once the record vs. ranked comes into play.

5
Men's soccer / Re: NESCAC
« on: October 22, 2014, 03:42:53 pm »
NCAA REGION RANKINGS - OCTOBER 22

NEW ENGLAND REGION (Data Sheet)
RankSchool
Division III Record
Overall Record
1Brandeis
14-1-0
14-1-0
2Coast Guard
13-1-0
13-1-0
3Tufts
8-1-3
8-1-3
4Amherst
10-1-2
10-1-2
5Wheaton (Mass.)
14-2-1
14-2-1
6Babson
11-4-0
11-4-0
7Wesleyan
7-3-2
7-3-2
8Gordon
12-3-0
12-3-0
9Middlebury
7-2-3
7-2-3
10Williams
7-5-1
7-5-1
11WPI
11-3-0
11-3-0

6
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 22, 2014, 03:08:31 pm »
On the regional data sheets that just came out. Is the SOS for the teams whole season? Or just the games they have played so far?

Yes, the SOS only includes opponents and games to date.  To see how the SOS is calculated, scroll down to the Strength of Schedule section in this article: http://d3soccer.com/rankings/2014/about

7
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 22, 2014, 03:06:30 pm »
The all-important NCAA Regional Rankings have been released.  Check them out here:

http://d3soccer.com/rankings/2014/Men/regional-rankings-1


If you're not sure what the significance of these rankings is or how they work, read this article:

http://d3soccer.com/rankings/2014/about

8
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 21, 2014, 12:20:59 pm »
Ignoring the "Other" votes, here's how the ranking would look based on respondents collective votes.

Reader's Pool Results to date
1. Messiah
2. F&M - 2(15) + 35 = 65
3. Brandies - 2(9) + 28 = 46
4. Trinity - 2(8) + 15 = 31
5. Kenyon - 2(4) + 18 = 26
6. Calvin - 0 + 15 = 15
7. Oneonta St. - 2(5) + 4 = 14

D3soccer.com Top 25
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Trinity
4. Oneonta St.
5. Brandeis
6. Kenyon
7. Calvin

9
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 21, 2014, 09:30:03 am »
I was surprised by the responses to the latest D3soccer.com "Readers Poll" concerning who should be ranked #1 and #2, and just curious if posters here have any insight into the high percentage (33%) of votes for "Other".  A vote for "Other" basically means that one either (a) doesn't think that Messiah should be in the top 2 or (b) thinks that at least one of the top 2 does not come from the group of Messiah, Kenyon, F&M, Trinity, Oneonta St., Brandeis, and Calvin.  Never anticipated a third of respondents thinking that.  It's a head-scratcher for me.  Maybe "1. F&M, 2. Trinity" and/or "1. F&M, 2. Brandies" should have been an option?  Any ideas what the thinking is?  Do you guys think the rankings are that far off that?

10
Men's soccer / Re: NCAA North Region
« on: October 15, 2014, 04:33:11 pm »
Really like these Midweek Roundups...

http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/midwest-roundup/2014/midwest-roundup-wk7

However, they only cover the same conferences every week, and leave out several important areas of the "Midwest". What about the IIAC, MIAC, CCIW, etc? While in the North Region, these are definately Midwest schools/conferences.

The "Midwest Roundup" and the other write-ups (Upstate Update, Women's Watch) are being written by volunteer contributors.  D3soccer.com is a two-person operation for the most part and in many respects a spare-time hobby.  So we are dependent on volunteer contributors for new content, and all the more so as work and family commitments have left both Jim Matson and me with less time for the website in recent years (thus the absence of my Flyby columns). 

The "Midwest Roundup" came about when someone contacted D3soccer.com in the off-season expressing interest in doing a column covering the SLIAC, NCAC, OAC, HCAC, and SAA.  We accepted the offer and for lack of a better name,"Midwest" was used despite clearly not covering the entire Midwest.  After a couple weeks of the column we were contacted by people wondering why such-and-such conference wasn't covered, and the dialogue that ensued resulted in new contributors providing coverage of the MIAA and MWC.  As you mention we are missing some high level, high interest conferences (namely IIAC, CCIW, and MIAC) that reside in the broad Midwest region.

Despite being at my limit time-wise to proof and format the contributions, we would still welcome additional volunteer contributors to cover these and other regions/conferences.  There are people on this forum that I know could do a good job, but I also know that its nice to write and share with the freedom and flexibility and informality that a forum provides versus the commitment, deadlines, and formality of doing so for a website.  If someone is seriously interested and committed to submitting a weekly update for a conference or region not yet covered, please contact me via the contact info on the website.

11
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 Surprise Teams
« on: October 11, 2014, 09:16:06 am »
Apologies for my post about Wabash.  I lost track of which thread I was in.  They certainly are one of the season's surprises.

12
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 Surprise Teams
« on: October 10, 2014, 04:08:01 pm »
lastguyoffthebench's fact-checker in the house . . .

Let's be fair, Wabash has played THREE teams over .500:
Spalding (7-5-0)  W2-1
Franklin (5-4-1)  T0-0
Rose-Hulman (7-3-2)  W1-0

But the point stands, their schedule is extremely weak.  Opponents' avg. winning pct. is only .363 (to date).  Only 3 of 11 opponents sport winning records as mentioned above.  Even the teams in the Top 25 with the weakest schedules (Lycoming, Colorado, Luther, Salisbury), don't come close to having that soft a schedule. Consequently there's no game that can be used to measure where they might stand among the top team across the nation. 

13
Men's soccer / Re: NCAA North Region
« on: October 09, 2014, 05:30:49 pm »
Check out my post in the National Perspective thread: http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8213.msg1612588#msg1612588

The SAA DOES receive an AQ starting this year.  Their 2-year waiting period is up.

Thus, by my count and math, there are 42 AQs, 1 Pool B berth, and 18 Pool C berths.

Also, by my count there are 10 Pool B teams, two of which will declare for other tournaments, meaning eight teams fighting for one Pool B berth.

Pool B teams in 2014:
   Maine-Presque Isle
   St. Joseph's College (Brooklyn)
   Maranatha Baptist (I think they'll delare for the NCCAA tournament instead)
   UW-Oshkosh
   UW-Platteville
   UW-Superior
   UW-Whitewater
   Findlandia
   Nebraska Wesleyan (I think they'll delare for the NAIA tournament instead)
   UC Santa Cruz

14
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 09, 2014, 05:23:12 pm »
Looking at the Pool B / Pool C parameters for this year, I come up with the following.

By my count, there are 10 Pool B teams in 2014:
   Maine-Presque Isle
   St. Joseph's College (Brooklyn)
   Maranatha Baptist (I think they'll delare for the NCCAA tournament instead)
   UW-Oshkosh
   UW-Platteville
   UW-Superior
   UW-Whitewater
   Findlandia
   Nebraska Wesleyan (I think they'll delare for the NAIA tournament instead)
   UC Santa Cruz

I believe with Centenary (La.) becoming eligible this year, William Peace adding a men's team this year (which is immediately eligible because their athletics program is already tournament eligible), and the loss of Polythenic (aka NYU-Poly) to the merger with NYU, there is a net gain of one eligible men's team.  Also, the Southern Athletic Association (SAA) is now eligible for an AQ so their eight teams leave Pool B for Pool A.

So by my count . . .

No. of eligible teams = 398 + 2 - 1 = 399

Division III access ratio = 6.5

The tournament field size = eligible teams / access ratio = 399 / 6.5 = 61.4  < 64 max. (I assume this will round down to 61, but the NCAA has seemed inconsistent on that over the years.)

No. of AQ conferences = number of Pool A automatic berths (AQ) = 41 + 1 = 42 (one more than the 41 last year)

No. of Pool A teams is 380 + 2 - 1 + 8 = 389

The Pool A access ratio = Pool A teams / Pool A berths (AQ) = 389 / 42 = 9.26

No. of Pool B teams = 18 - 8 = 10

No. of Pool B berths = Pool B teams / Pool A access ration = 10 / 9.26 = 1.08, rounds to 1 berth (same as last year)

No. of Pool C berths = Field Size - Pool A berths (AQ) - Pool B berths = 61 - 42 - 1 = 18 berths (one less than the 19 last year)

15
Men's soccer / Re: Empire 8
« on: September 10, 2014, 06:02:00 pm »
As expected, the Alfred Saxon men's soccer team, under first-year Head Coach Matt Smith, (who routinely took Johns Hopkins men's teams to the NCAA Tournament) is having some early success. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out once Empire 8 Conference play begins.

On Saxon Warriors!
Any background to why Matt Smith landed at Alfred?  Seems given his track record at Hopkins, that he could haave gotten offers to coach at numerous higher profile, more competitive programs.  Obviously, in Division III especially, those often aren't the main or only motivations for a coach.  Without doing any digging or research, I wasn't sure if he had a past connection to the school or the area.  Any insight? In any case, that would seem to be a great pick-up for Alfred.

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