first round predictions for New England teams

Amherst 4 - Thomas 0
Keene St  1 - Ithica 0
Salve Regina 2 - Rowan 1
RPI  3 - Eastern Nazarene 0
Middlebury 2 - Johnson and Wales 0
Messiah 4 - Framingham St 0
Oneonta St 2 - Babson 1
Conn 3 - Catholic 2
Tufts 5 - SUNY Maritime 0
WPI  1 - Nazareth 0

projected 11/6 Regional Rankings

1.  Amherst
2.  Tufts
3.  Conn
4.  WPI
5.  Middlebury
6.  Williams
7.  ECSU
8.  Brandeis
9.  Babson
10. Keene St
11. St. Josephs
12. Bates

Last 2 out:  Endicott, Wheaton

Notes:
- WPI and Williams each have 9 game unbeaten streaks
- Middlebury might slide to #6 as they have won only 2 of their last 9 games (2-2-5)
- ECSU may drop out of the rankings due to their sub-.500 SOS falling even farther below .500 after playing Plymouth St (1-11-3)
- Babson has played 7 of the top 8 ranked teams (2-4-1)

Random observations on the 10/23 Regional Rankings:

* Middlebury is currently in 5th place in the NESCAC, but they are #3 in all of New England

* Keene St has the same winning % as Babson (0.667) and a stronger schedule, yet they are ranked behind the Beavers

* Babson's SOS of .553 in the Reg. Rankings is baffling.  They have played the teams ranked 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, and 12, yet they only have the 13th toughest schedule in New England?

* Rankings reward the strongest SOS and punish those with below average SOS - the following teams all have winning % over 0.750 but were not ranked presumably due to SOS below .500 (St. Joes 12-0-2, ECSU 13-2, Eastern Nazarene 13-1, Johnson & Wales 13-2, Maine Maritime 9-2-1, Norwich 10-3-1, Pine Manor 9-2-2, UMass-Boston 10-2-2)

* Endicott, Clark and Roger Williams must be the next three teams in the rankings given their records and SOS over .500

Projected 10/23/19 Regional Rankings for New England:

1.   Amherst      11-0-2
2.   Tufts             9-2-2
3.   Brandeis       8-3-4
4.   Middlebury    7-1-5
5.   Babson         9-4-2
6.   Conn            7-3-2
7.   St Josephs   12-0-2
8.   Bowdoin        6-2-4
9.   EConnSt       13-2-0
10. WPI               8-2-4
11. Endicott         8-4-2
12. UMass-Boston   10-2-2

next 3
Williams             5-3-4
MIT                    7-2-5
Clark                 11-4-0

Week 2 predictions

Babson @ Springfield:  Springfield (2-6-1, 1-0) has only played two of their first nine games at home, and they won both those contests.  However, they are winless against their four opponents with winning records having been outscored 7-1.  Babson (4-3-1, 0-0-1), coming off a 6 goal explosion Wednesday against New England College, finds a way.  Babson 1 - Springfield 0

Coast Guard @ Emerson:  Emerson (2-5-1, 0-1) has amassed a 3-39-1 record since joining the NEWMAC in 2013.   Two of the three wins have been 1-0 over Coast Guard in 2016 and 2018, and this game represents their best chance for a conference win again this year.  The difference is that the Lions surrender 3 goals per game vs. only 1 goal per game for Coast Guard.  With Emerson being very young, the toughness and maturity of the Bears should prevail.  Coast Guard 2 - Emerson 1.

Clark @ Wheaton:  Clark (6-2, 1-1) is the highest scoring team in the conference, and only Emerson gives up more goals than Wheaton.  (Flashback to 2018 - Clark started 7-0 before finishing 3-5-2 when the level of competition picked up.)  The Cougars are 1-2 vs teams with winning records so far this year.  Clark's Sean Munroe leads the conference in goals (7) and points (18).  Wheaton (3-5-1, 0-1) have scored only 1 goal in their last 4 games.   Clark 2 - Wheaton 1.

WPI @ MIT:  This contest features my guaranteed pick of the week - the Engineers will not lose.  MIT enters undefeated (4-0-3, 1-0) surprisingly scoring a couple of goals per game.  But, they have not played a team as strong defensively as WPI who enters with 5 clean sheets in 8 games allowing a paltry 7 shots per game.  WPI 1 - MIT 0.

2019 NEWMAC fearless predictions:

1.  Babson - must replace All-New England players Jackson Greenspan and Noah Parker, and they are well positioned to do so.  Start with having played nine freshman extensively in last year's 12-3-4 season, sprinkle in a handful of seasoned upperclassmen and a D1 transfer, add senior goalkeepers and the Beavers have the quality and depth to repeat as regular season champions. SOS should not be an issue this year with non-conference games with Amherst, Williams, Tufts, Connecticut College, Brandeis, Endicott and Eastern Conn St.

2.  WPI - with 6 returning senior starters, a well organized defense, and a healthy Paul Beatty?, the Engineers should challenge Babson for the top spot.  The non-conference schedule includes Middlebury, St Joseph's, Brandeis, E Conn St and Endicott.

3.  Clark - has just about everyone back from last year's 10-5-2 squad including their top eight leading scorers.  Senior forward Sean Munroe (All-New England 2nd team) led the team with 11 goals and 4 assists.  The Cougars fizzled in conference play last year but should benefit from having a more experienced side this time around.  Clark plays Brandeis, Trinity, and Wesleyan out of conference, but SOS may be an issue for them later.

4.  Springfield - a rebuilding year having lost stalwarts Denkel and Schneider.  The Pride have 5 goalkeepers on their roster - ALL freshman!  If Wheaton or MIT unexpectedly gels, Springfield could slip further down the standings.

5.  Wheaton - this will not be a Matt Cushing type of Wheaton team.  The Lyons are transitioning to a more staid style of play, and with losing last year's leading scorer, they lack the firepower to compete for a championship and may even struggle to qualify for the conference tournament.

6.  MIT - lost leading scorer Woo from an anemic offensive team and will struggle to score against the quality defenses in the upper echelon of the conference and region.

7.  Coast Guard - crafty but stern coach Chris Parsons will try to help navigate the Bears through this season and keep them afloat.  With little leeway, a winning season would be hard to fathom.  OK, I've got nothing on Coast Guard.  As always, they will be well coached, fit and play really hard.  A successful season would be qualifying for the conference tournament.

8.  Emerson - Coach Harkin, a former Tufts assistant, is trying to build something with 18 of the 26 players on the roster being freshmen or sophomores.  Maybe next year?

Also, a pat on the back to Seabrook for having the guts and knowledge to use him. It takes sack to go to your backup on PK's because he might look good in practice but as I said there is a ton of pressure in a real live situation.

Against Trinity in the second round of the 2011 NCAA tournament, Babson Coach Anderson used a field player (midfielder Salomon Guindi) in goal for PK's in place of healthy All-Region GK Crowley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvpmsBCFOsM

10/26/18 Preview

Emerson @ MIT:   MIT has a chance to qualify for the conference tournament with a win over Emerson coupled with a Clark loss at WPI tomorrow.  The Engineers are 5-1-1 at home having outscored visitors 14-2 and notching 6 shutouts.  The Lions are 1-4 on the road and have scored only 3 goals in 6 conference games.   Prediction:  MIT 2 - Emerson 0

The Coast Guard @ Babson game originally scheduled for tomorrow has been rescheduled for Sunday at noon.  This is probably a wise move on Babson's part as Coast Guard trains extensively for action in very wet and windy conditions.   

Also, Babson has been playing exclusively on their turf field for the last month.  The grass field did look awful in September when they hosted Springfield.  Have they shut it down for the year?  If so, will this interfere with their ability to host the conference tournament as the Babson Field Hockey team will likely also be hosting games Nov 3?