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Messages - TennesseeJed

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1
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 POOL C
« on: November 09, 2015, 03:57:42 pm »
Not to mention why not book Loras to Kansas City now. Very easy bracket

Don't jump to conclusions. DePauw beat them 2-0 earlier this year and they are in the same bracket.



I have seen DePauw play and they do not look very threatening

They did not look threatening against OWU in the NCAC Semis, if that's your point of reference, but they didn't really show up to that game, unfortunately.  We'll see how they do, obviously, but they've got game if they choose to bring it.  I'd say they're an easy favorite over Westminster in rd 1 and could be a very interesting match for Wash U potentially in 2nd.

2
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: November 09, 2015, 01:26:51 pm »
Here's the actual game video from the last 90 secs OWU-Kenyon....really unbelievable when you think about all the different things that had to happen (and go wrong....and right) for both teams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmw8eudQV2A

Watching the other video last night and now this one I think Barnes for OWU actually made a smart play.  Glassman was in and had plenty of time...more than 5 secs as he broke deep in the box.  Now he might have missed wide or hit it over but he was in and he had enough time to finish the play.  Glassman made a nice play with a chest trap pass to himself and into the open channel.  Kenyon's Barnes was right there running parallel with him.

I would have gladly split my own requirements w/ NCACNE (or any other Kenyon fan...  :)), but I can assure you there was not enough left to spare after that...




Did you have the Xanax handy, NCAC? If there was any time for it, it was then! ;)

Or.... some of Tennessee Jed's Hooch!

3
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: November 08, 2015, 04:53:28 pm »
MIT just goes up 1-0 on Babson w/ 14' left in 2H.  Nice goal by Bingham

Update:  Babson ties it up 1-1 with 7:30' left on corner by Araujo to a header by Carlos into goal.

Update 2:  Less than a minute later--Babson goes up 2-1 w/ 6 left.

2-1 Babson Final

4
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 POOL C
« on: November 08, 2015, 03:20:23 pm »
Byes:  Kenyon, Calvin, Brandeis

100% of Byes last year went to #1 ranked (in 3rd ranking) teams in their respective regions.  Kenyon wasn't #1 in the GL region.  I'd be surprised if they get it, even with their win% and RvR, I think their SoS might be too low this year for a bye, given how it impacted their regional ranking.

Brandeis, Oneonta, Loras and Haverford make the most sense to me, if they all come from top ranked teams.  All won respective conference AQ and all top ranked team in their respective region.

5
Men's soccer / Re: UAA 2015
« on: November 08, 2015, 03:10:19 pm »
Oh crap!  I forgot to get my UAA picks in this week... :-\

6
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: November 08, 2015, 03:08:47 pm »
That Corkery kid for Haverford is unreal.  Two perfect free kicks 2 days in a row, and today with 20 secs left to give Haverford the Centennial title.

That really was a gorgeous free kick today to eliminate Dickinson 1-0 in the Centennial final with just seconds left.  I tuned in late, but the game looked very even for the last 15-20 mins and seemed that the 0-0 score through 89' was reflective of the game.  Noticed that Dickinson actually outshot the Fords at home, which was a little surprising.  Tough loss for Dickinson, but looked to be a well played game.

7
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 Great Lakes Region
« on: November 07, 2015, 03:30:07 pm »
Wait OWU scored 2 goals in the last 2 minutes to tie it?

Wow...and then the PK with 2 secnds left?

Sounds like it was one of the more entertaining matches of the year.

The last 2-3 minutes were definitely some of the most entertaining minutes of the year!  No desire to repeat them--ever...

8
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 POOL C
« on: November 05, 2015, 01:38:52 pm »

POOL C LOCKS  (6 teams)
Amherst
Washington U
Wheaton (Ill)
Macalester

FM/Haverford loser
Carnegie Mellon


POOL C Should Be Safe (6-7 teams)
Tufts
Kenyon (if lose AQ)
Middlebury (if reach NESCAC final)

Brockport St
Lycoming (if lose AQ)

Rutgers-Camden (if lose AQ)
Plattsburgh St

POOL C Bubble (4-5 teams) No particular order
RPI
Thomas More
Rowan
Dickinson
(OWU if lose AQ)
----------------------
TBA (upset high seed)
TBA (upset high seed)

Outside bubble/likely done
DePauw
Stockton
Chicago (win over Wash U could see them bump up)
Denison
Pacific Lutheran
North Park
UW-W
ECSU
Cortland St
CNU
Loser of Kings/Eastern

There's 18 and if other teams like Loras somehow slip up then unbold one of the "outside bubble teams"

My prediction for the GL region is that Kenyon and OWU are equally safe and that the loser of the NCAC final will likely get GL region Pool C bids along with CMU, whether they lose to CWRU or not.  I think DePauw and TMC will drop below Kenyon and OWU next week, based on RvRs, incremental directions in relative SoS's, changes in Win%'s, etc.

9
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: November 05, 2015, 01:35:53 pm »
I do not see how OWU is a lock even if they win tonight. That is only 2 wins v ranked. I have never seen so many teams with 5+ regionally ranked wins. I feel like this has been inflated a bit for some reason but oh well.

OWU is a lock, IMO, because they now have three ranked wins for next week - Oberlin jumped into the rankings, meaning OWU has wins over DePauw x2 plus Oberlin.  And with a game at Kenyon plus tonight's game OWU's SoS is going to be around 0.600.  Even with a loss to Kenyon, OWU should be a lock at 15-4-2, 3-3-1 RvR, and SoS 0.590-0.600.



Won't OWU SOS go down against Kenyon? Listen after watching both teams I think they are both NCAA teams I just feel a .510 SOS should not be considered a LOCK

My prediction for the GL region is that CMU is a lock at this point, even w/ a loss to Case, as they'll still have a .566+ SoS (given an away game at CWRU remaining for their SoS), above .500 RvR and a high enough win rate to make them legit.  I think their position could change within the top 3 spots for the region, but I think the NCAA will want to diversify away from 2 pool C's going to NCAC schools and none to UAA or others.  I think TMC's stats are not going to be strong enough after the loss to Westminster to keep them in.  To me, it looks like CMU plus the loser of the OWU/Kenyon NCAC Finals on Saturday for GL region Pool C bids.  Kenyon's RvR and Win%, both still by far the region's highest at 5-1-0 (.833) and 16-1-0 (.941), resp., and rising SoS, as noted above and below by RH, should boost them ahead of DPU, who will now have a 2-3-2 RvR (.429), low relative Win % (.722), in spite of a still strong SoS of .557 (and rising since they played OWU away).  It's possible that the committee could keep DPU higher than Kenyon since the Lords lost a head to head game, but my instinct is that Kenyon should outrank DPU next week. 

10
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 POOL C
« on: November 04, 2015, 04:29:56 pm »
You can see the NCAA Sheets on the bottom of the NCAA Webpage... PDF Links...

Not next week's sheets...which are the ones that really matter.  This week's are almost outdated already!

11
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 POOL C
« on: November 04, 2015, 04:11:32 pm »

TMC SOS is .526, Westminster was .494.    They could be in trouble with this loss, dropping them to 5-7 within the GL Region

Good points!  Too bad we can't see the next NCAA sheets...  It's gonna be a close call in the GL region.  Even if Case wins over CMU, which is doubtful after last weekend, I doubt they'll make it back in the top 8, which helps CMU potentially retain the top spot.

12
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 Great Lakes Region
« on: November 04, 2015, 04:06:27 pm »
Kenyon beats Oberlin 1-0, outshooting the Yeomen 16-8, with Amolo scoring the only goal of the game in the 14th minute.  The Lords host the winner of tonight's other NCAC semi: DPU and OWU on Saturday afternoon.

13
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 POOL C
« on: November 04, 2015, 04:02:24 pm »
With the anticipation of teams that win their conference:

Central (1):  Washington
East (3):  Plattsburgh St, Winner of Brockport St/Cortland St, RPI (didn't make conf tourney)
Great Lakes (2):  CMU, Either DePauw or OWU.
Mid-Atlantic (3):  Lycoming, 2 of these 3 (Haverford, Dickinson, F&M)
New England (4): Amherst, Tufts, if MIT fails to win conf, if MA-Boston fails to win AQ, winner of Bowdoin/Conn, or loser of Endicott/Gordon
North (2): Macalester, UW-O
South (2): Rowan, Winner of Stockton/Camden
West (1): Colorado

TMC shakes up Great Lakes Pool C vs. expectations.  TMC now serious contender for Pool C Bid.  NCAC tourney outcome will likely determine 2nd bid after CMU.  Oberlin now out too as Kenyon just closes out NCAC semi with a 1-0 win over the Yeomen.

14
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 Great Lakes Region
« on: November 04, 2015, 02:53:51 pm »
Kenyon video not available today?!?!?

I've already sent 2 support requests to Stretch Internet.  No word back yet...

Update:  apparently technical issues with equipment at Kenyon.  No estimate given...

This blows.

I was "this" close to taking the day off to go to both games - said Nah - I watch the first and go to OWU tonight.  The OWU thing I can control . . .

I'm envious!  I'm 750-800 miles away from Gambier...  I was there for CMU, which was a great game to see, and Marietta for their double header weekend.  I'd love to see the DPU/OWU game in Delaware too.  Will be a great game to watch. 

15
Men's soccer / Re: 2015 Great Lakes Region
« on: November 04, 2015, 02:13:43 pm »
Kenyon video not available today?!?!?

I've already sent 2 support requests to Stretch Internet.  No word back yet...

Update:  working now!

Amolo just scores at '15.  1-0 Kenyon.

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