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Messages - lmitzel

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1
Central Region / Re: WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: April 06, 2018, 01:58:19 pm »
To break up the heavy amount of green in recent posts on the board... ( :P )

The CCIW is naming its awards for Coach of the Year and Most Outstanding Player starting next season. The COY award will be named after former Wheaton coach Beth Baker, while the MOP award will be named after the recently retired Lori Kerans.

2
Central Region / Re: WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 22, 2018, 11:21:04 am »
Recruiting news out of the land of our green-clad friends: Morton's Caylie Jones has committed to Illinois Wesleyan. She's 5'8" and according to her recruiting profile can play either forward position. That same recruiting site lists her as averaging 15 and 10 per game, with 55 percent shooting from the floor and a 75 percent clip at the stripe. (I can't attest to the accuracy of these numbers, but it's the only batch I could find at a quick glance).

She knows how to win too, being part of a team that won three straight state titles before getting bounced in their sectional title game this year and she finished her high school career with a record of 131-10.

3
Central Region / Re: WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 21, 2018, 01:05:45 pm »
Admittedly, I only got through a couple pages of that second article I shared before quitting. :)

The "having Tess and Jamie" question is an interesting one. Had both been four year Cardinals they would have had one extra overlap year in 2013-14, when the Cardinals went 4-10 in CCIW play, but were only two games out of the #4 seed. Tess played a few games at the end of that year (including a win down at the Shirk when such a thing seemed unthinkable), but adding her for the full year, plus a full year of Jamie is probably worth the three wins they would have needed to get in the CCIW Tournament that year. They probably would have gotten bounced by Carthage in the semis again, though maybe having both Tess and Jamie eliminates Stephanie Kuzmanic's pushoff on her game-winner when the two teams met in Naperville that year. (I'm not bitter or anything. :P )

The Emily Zgoda question is harder to think about when you factor in why she transferred to Albion, but those same factors also open up what-ifs with the 2014-15 team and how much the chemistry and bonding of that team helped propel them to the NCAA Tournament (and it's one of the reasons why that team will always have a special place in my heart). It's an interesting what-if though that probably has more bearing on the 2016-17 team with Whipple missing a majority of the year.

I think the more interesting four year what-if for North Central? Therese Pettersson. We almost certainly win more than five games this year if she's around. :(

Calvin alumnus Matt Snyder (whose d3boards.com handle is KnightSlappy) over on the men's boards has made it a personal crusade to show coaches how wrong they are to sit down key players for long stretches of the game due to picking up an early second foul in the first half or an early third foul in the second half. Since KnightSlappy is a numbers guy, he always brings the science whenever he engages this topic. You should look up KnightSlappy via the d3boards.com member search and send him a personal message; he'll dump so much statistical data on you relating to this that it'll make your head spin.

I look at it like the whole going for it on fourth down in football. Coaches don't do it anywhere near as often as win probabilities or other statistics suggest they should. I think it stems from the idea mentioned in the first article that I shared where coaches get reamed for going with the perceived "risky" idea because that's how it's always been done, even though statistical analysis now suggests that the "risky" move is actually a smart one. But if a coach goes with the "risky" option and it backfires, they get reamed; going the "safe" route is effectively a CYA route.

4
Central Region / Re: WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 21, 2018, 10:28:59 am »
And your mention of fouls reminds me of another minor criticism I have of something coaches will do : sit some of their best players for long stretches in the 1st half because they've picked up 2 fouls. The player has fouled out of the first half with 2 fouls. I can see sitting a star player for the duration of the 1st half if she has 3 fouls, but not 2.
And then in the 2nd half, why sit someone because she picked up her 3rd foul? Often, good players end up playing fewer minutes than they should, due to being "in foul trouble." The rules allow a player to keep playing with 2 fouls, 3 fouls, 4 fouls. Yet, coaches decide to impose additional restrictions on their own players, stricter than those in the rulebook : commit your 3rd foul too early in 3rd quarter and you've fouled out for the next 6 minutes; commit your 4th and you're banned from playing most of the rest of the game, as if an unused 5th foul can be carried over to the next game so she can commit 6 in that game.

That was the interesting thing going back to North Central's System years. Michelle Roof kept her line changes the same regardless of foul trouble. Granted, you could get away with that with a 15-woman rotation where you're only playing 45 seconds to a minute at a time and that probably played a role. But over the five System years, players fouled out 4, 9, 12, 14, and 4 times in those years for a total of 43. Without looking up numbers across the rest of the conference in that time span, I don't know how those numbers stack up.

But it's an interesting dilemma. I remember reading something somewhere along the line that the strategy of sitting your best player just because of foul trouble isn't the best strategy. Bearing in mind foul trouble though, if you're keeping a player in with two fouls in the first half for example, how effective can they be on defense? If you value not picking up that third foul before the intermission, you can't play as aggressively on defense, and the other team will target that player on offense to try and force that third foul. Of course, by and large this shouldn't impact a foul troubled player on offense, and if your best offensive weapon is in foul trouble, you do cripple your team by sitting them due to said foul trouble (unless you have a catalyst on your bench that you can plug in in that player's spot, but even then is it an equitable swap?)

It's a risk-reward analysis, something that coaches have to do multiple times in every game. And a lot of common coaching doctrine seems to lean more towards the risk-averse side of the spectrum, which in and of itself isn't a big deal, but you get into the old football cliche of "Prevent defense only prevents you from winning" or the more general cliche "coaching not to lose instead of coaching to win." I'd be interested to see a statistical analysis of keeping your rotations the same regardless of foul trouble versus the generally accepted method of sitting players with two fouls before halftime, three in the third, four in the fourth, etc.

I did Google a couple articles relevant to the question. See here and here for a more quantitative analysis.

5
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: March 19, 2018, 03:19:37 pm »
For the CCIWers out there, how will Wheaton fair? They were the 4th best team in the conference and also were in and out of the regional rankings. They lose #2 scorer Samuelson, but return everyone else. Some guy named Francis might be able to carry the load (again). Can they leapfrog NCC and grab a Pool C bid next season? I haven't really looked into Carthage either.

I'd think Wheaton would be a team in contention even without Samuelson as long as Aston Francis keeps doing Aston Francis things and the rest of the team can continue to complement him like they did last year. Carthage is an interesting case. They have those young, talented bigs in Perry and Johnson plus should have a full year of Kienan Baltimore, but the question might be with their backcourt. They lose Derek Mason, but still have Jordan Thomas. If everybody's healthy they'll probably be in the mix too.

6
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: The Diva Belt
« on: March 19, 2018, 09:41:51 am »
2017-18
TeamDefenses   Challenge dateComment
Amherst33*National Champs- National Champs- Keep The Diva BeltTM for the summer in Amherst, MA

Amherst becomes the second team in Diva BeltTM history to keep ItTM for an entire season (Thomas More in 2015-16) and matches its program record of 34 consecutive title defenses. The Mammoths will need to win their first 28 games next season to match Thomas More's streak.

7
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
« on: March 19, 2018, 09:31:30 am »
Map is up to date, which really only involved switching the color under Nebraska Wesleyan from light blue to that... shade of brown I intended to have be close to walnut but I feel like isn't the greatest approximation, but oh well.

Sometime this offseason I'll try to go through all of this and put markers for each category that applies to each individual school. In the meantime, may The BeltTM enjoy its summer in eastern Nebraska and a fall spent at Memorial Stadium taunting the Nebraska-Lincoln football team with a prize they could never hope to capture.

8
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 13, 2018, 04:31:38 pm »
Alex Sorenson's collegiate career will continue for one more night, as he was named a Central region representative for the NABC All Star Game.

Looks like I'll have to sneak a peek at that game now...

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Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
« on: March 13, 2018, 11:59:10 am »

I imagine it's because there's steady and consistent traffic here.  It's all about eyeballs.

Yes, but they're the eyeballs of crazy people.

I was going to go with "cultists," but I'm not sure whether that would be an insult to us or not. :P

The map is updated. I tried to put a pin on 742 Evergreen Terrace in a Springfield somewhere in the US, but sadly as far as I can tell, none exist. :(

Springfield takes The BeltTM to Salem for the last time.

Barring The BeltTM going to the ODAC and ending up in their conference tournament (unless Salem is losing that too).

Nope... not losing that tournament. Also remember, the women's final four is going to Roanoke College next year.

Bill, how does The BeltTM react to spam in ItsTM thread?

Let's give this a little bit more just due. I support the idea of an entire DIII team being put together for the TBT. Best way to let people know and try and drive support is these boards along with social media. Do you complain when I post updates about Hoopsville or in the past our fundraising efforts on the boards? :)

I didn't mind his posting it in all of the conference rooms. But this room? Really?

This is why I've tried to impose the "Must Read from Page 1 before posting rule" for all first time posters.

I appreciate that you didn't impose that rule even though I did retroactively go back to get up to date (which was about 110 pages worth at the time)... though that was probably an enforcement of the rule in its own way. :)

10
Central Region / Re: WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 12, 2018, 04:21:23 pm »
Millikin has a new head coach :
http://athletics.millikin.edu/news/2018/3/12/lett-named-head-womens-basketball-coach-at-millikin.aspx
I'm trying to remember where we've seen her before. Hmmm.
Good luck Olivia and welcome back to the CCIW!

I vaguely remember announcing that name a fair number of times my first year behind the mic at the hangar, plus a couple times after that. That's a good hire.

11
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
« on: March 12, 2018, 10:00:48 am »
The map is updated. I tried to put a pin on 742 Evergreen Terrace in a Springfield somewhere in the US, but sadly as far as I can tell, none exist. :(

Springfield takes The BeltTM to Salem for the last time.

Barring The BeltTM going to the ODAC and ending up in their conference tournament (unless Salem is losing that too).

12
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 10, 2018, 08:31:48 pm »
Who had 8:17 in the jacket pool?

I feel like we need to run these for every game. I ran one when Augie came to the hangar this season  but didnít make a huge deal of it here (I basically just asked AndOne, a few table people, the NCTV crew, my dad, and a former coworker to whom Iíve told the exploits of the jacket).

13
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
« on: March 09, 2018, 09:00:16 pm »
The Belt will now reside for the next 24 hours at least at 742 Evergreen Terrace, Springfield, USA


14
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2018 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 08, 2018, 10:58:14 am »
Something I'd like to see is for conferences to diminish their conference tournaments. It's a great story to have some low seeded team get hot and make their way in but it diminishes the value of the regular season. If you know your conference is a one bid league then why bother playing the regular season if all that matters is a few games in February?
I'd be all for the UAA model of no tournament but if you had to have one, do something like:
a) 2 vs 5 and 3 vs 4 then the winner of that pod plays the 1 in the final
b) 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 and if the winner is someone other than the 1 they have to play the 1 seed

This topic came up in the CCIW board a couple months ago when the conference announced it was expanding its conference tournament from four to six. I'm actually a fan of the expansion. With it for next year I think the number came out to roughly 62 percent of teams nationwide play in their conference's tournament (factoring in that the UAA doesn't have one).

I can see the argument that it diminishes the regular season (which is why I'm glad that most conferences don't just invite everyone to the postseason tournament) but you're arguably adding more value to the regular season in that more games will matter in the grand scheme of things.

Yeah, the conference tournaments can boost team's Pool C chances if they lose, or increase the likelihood of hosting a weekend or two in the NCAA's, but those extra 1-3 games don't count any more than a Tip Off Tournament game in November or a first matchup between rivals in January.

15
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
« on: March 07, 2018, 05:48:13 pm »
And barring any mistakes on my end... the map is complete.

I've never heard of Clarkson College in Omaha, but the Clarkson that held the Stealth BeltTM in 1981-82 was Clarkson University in Potsdam, NY. The Golden Knights of Clarkson U. ripped Thee Most Exalted Bespangled Stealth CinctureTM out of the greedy hands of SUNY Potsdam head coach Jerry Welsh and his Bears and carted ItTM across town to their own campus before losing it in turn to fellow North Country outpost St. Lawrence University.

So there is a Clarkson College in Nebraska, but double checking it looked like they didn't even have a basketball team... so yeah, I goofed. I've moved the marker to its proper place across the Raquette from SUNY Potsdam. Hopefully that's it, but I can fairly easily make changes as the need arises.

And barring any mistakes on my end... the map is complete.
Is it ever really complete though. #DeepThoughts

Not a Monday, but close enough...

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