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Messages - augie_superfan

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1
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
« on: April 28, 2016, 09:27:09 pm »
Rankings seem pretty reasonable.  I'm surprised Augustana is ahead of Buena Vista.  One of those teams might have a shot at a Pool C bid if they finish the season strong and lose in their conference championship games (barring a ton of upsets across the nation).

2
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
« on: April 25, 2016, 09:49:09 am »
My Central Rankings through this weekend's games:

1.  North Central (IL)
2.  Wartburg
3.  Grinnell
4.  Wash U
5.  Buena Vista
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Luther
10. Beloit

My central rankings would look like this:

1.  Wartburg
2.  North Central (IL)
3.  Buena Vista
4.  Grinnell
5.  Wash U
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Wheaton (IL)

3
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
« on: April 22, 2016, 11:48:32 am »
My central rankings would look like this:

1.  Wartburg
2.  North Central (IL)
3.  Buena Vista
4.  Grinnell
5.  Wash U
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Wheaton (IL)

4
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 16, 2016, 02:02:44 pm »
Here are the final odds for the Final 4 and Championship game:

Team                    Final 2          Win Championship
Benedictine            79.6%                51.1%
Amherst                 20.4%                 6.1%
CNU                      35.6%                 12.4%
St. Thomas            64.4%                 30.4%



6
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 09, 2016, 10:58:08 pm »
Updated Tourney Odds

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney-odds-before-sweet-16
Is there a webpage for the women?

Sorry, I don't follow the women very closely but off the top of my head I'd say 60% Thomas More wins it all

8
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 06, 2016, 10:19:45 pm »
Endicott over Catholic would be #1 by my calculations.



9
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 05, 2016, 10:07:41 am »
Updated probabilities after the round 1 games

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney/2016-tourney1

Hopefully another great slate of games tonight following yesterday's excitement.

10
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 04, 2016, 08:24:51 pm »
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
Do you have historical upset records?  Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.

Only other year I did something similar was 2012 so I don't have much to compare to but I would assume last year's run was the most unlikely in quite some time.

11
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 04, 2016, 06:03:59 pm »
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

Benedictine and Augustana are good teams this year that very well could take home the banner, but a 26.1% and 21% chance to win the whole thing!? That's almost even money those two vs. the field.

And Augie could potentially have to go through Hope (#9), Emory(#25), Whitworth (#3), Christopher Newport(#4), and Benidictine(#2) to do it... color me skeptical, but I might have to call your "adjustments" into question :)

Understandable, but the adjustments I reference actually make it "less" likely that a favorite will win thus decreasing the top team's probabilities a bit.  If you don't believe the rankings of a computer ranking system then you shouldn't trust these either.

Out of curiosity, what do you think Hope's chances of beating Augustana are?

12
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 pm »
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury

13
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 12, 2016, 08:15:49 pm »
Yeah... but this year's committee has hinted (on air and some people off air) that they may be pushing to .060 equals 4 despite clearly the words from the committee last year saying as it pushes out they lose a little faith that it as even. The NCAA Stats people have apparently poured over the numbers with them the last few years per the equation .030 SOS = 2 games.

And these are the same stats people that have decided to calculate the SOS in such an "interesting" way.  The end result of the teams picked each year seems to be pretty good as of late but it is crazy to trust these statisticians with an equivalence equation when they can't even figure out the SOS issues.

14
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 14, 2015, 09:49:57 pm »
Unbelievable night for Augustana. There aren't many words needed to describe that effort on both ends of the floor tonight.  Just one of those special nights.  Congrats to the team on a great accomplishment of making the Final Four and good luck.  See you in Salem!!!

15
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 08, 2015, 10:37:16 pm »
Updated odds of advancement:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoyYTFlNDI1OTljZWUwNzU1

Top Odds Of Winning Championship
UW-Stevens Point     17.0%
Babson                      14.5%
Augustana                 13.1%
Randolph-Macon       12.8%
St. Olaf                      7.7%
VA Wesleyan              5.9%
ETBU                         5.8%
Marietta                     5.7%

The Augustana sectional is the most "wide-open" with all 4 teams being of relatively equal strength.  The home court advantage puts Augustana over the top.  Should be some great games on Friday and Saturday

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