« on: March 11, 2017, 09:03:23 pm »
What a fantastic run for this rather young Augie team. Can't wait to see them in Salem next weekend!
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Chrishawn Orange hit a running trey at the buzzer from the top of the key as Augie dethroned St. Thomas, 77-74. Augie was down by eight with under 40 seconds remaining, and came back to tie it up with ten seconds remaining on a pair of Nolan Ebel FTs. The UST ballhandler was called for a charge with three seconds left, and Orange threaded his way through the defense to hit the 21-foot runner as time expired.
My central rankings would look like this:
2. North Central (IL)
3. Buena Vista
5. Wash U
Outside looking in
8. Ill. Wesleyan
9. Wheaton (IL)
Updated Tourney OddsIs there a webpage for the women?
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament. The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round. They will be updated with each round.Do you have historical upset records? Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.
The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn. The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).
As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:
Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton
Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament. The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round. They will be updated with each round.
Benedictine and Augustana are good teams this year that very well could take home the banner, but a 26.1% and 21% chance to win the whole thing!? That's almost even money those two vs. the field.
And Augie could potentially have to go through Hope (#9), Emory(#25), Whitworth (#3), Christopher Newport(#4), and Benidictine(#2) to do it... color me skeptical, but I might have to call your "adjustments" into question