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Messages - augie_superfan

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1
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:26:51 pm »
There are a few Davids floating around in this late set of games tonight

2
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:20:12 pm »
For anyone interested, UW-Stevens Point is only up 1 on Marian with about 6 minutes to go

3
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:03:02 pm »
15-0 run for Webster?  Up by 1 now

4
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 08:14:53 pm »
No doubt it is harder than it looks.  The young lady is doing a nice job picking up the slack.

Augie trying to put this one away, up 7 with 1 minute to play.

5
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:47:16 pm »
"The Tommies won't stop chasing the mouse"???  What is going on with this commentary on the webcast?

6
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:33:27 pm »
Mine seems to stop every few minutes and I have to reload the page to get it going again.

7
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:27:57 pm »
Augie up 39-33 at half.  Ben Ryan with 9 pts/6 rebs at the half.  Hunter Hill picked up his 3rd foul right at the end of the first half (terrible call btw). 

8
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:06:06 pm »
I don't know Massey's exact predictive stats but 2 years ago when I had the time to run my own "Massey-like" ranking system, it predicted about 73% of the games correctly.  My assumption is that his is within a few percentage points either way of that value.  And that is predicting all games (some 5000 or so).

9
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Regional Realignment
« on: February 27, 2013, 09:09:11 pm »
So, is it now possible that a game between 2 teams could count for one team and not the other?  If Team A plays Team B in an out-of-region contest, and Team A has greater than 70% of regional games then this game is taken into account for them.  However, if Team B only has 60% regional games then the game wouldn't count for Team B?  Is this possible or am I thinking about this wrong?

10
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 24, 2013, 10:22:58 pm »
* The what seemed low attendance for the Wesleyan/Augie game Friday night. I was very surprised with the large number of open seats during that game especially given that, with two wins, IWU had a great chance to cement a top regional ranking.

I was struck by the sight of so many empty seats for that game as well, so I went back and looked at the attendance numbers for CCIW tourney games involving the host school:

2013  Shirk Center (Illinois Wesleyan)  1475 (AC @ IWU)
2012  Merner Field House (North Central)  1778 (AC @ NCC)  2050 (WC @ NCC)
2011  Merner Field House (North Central)  1458 (IWU @ NCC)
2010  Tarble Arena (Carthage)  1875 (AC @ CC)  2410 (IWU @ CC)
2009  King Arena (Wheaton)  2537 (NCC @ WC)  2589 (EC @ WC)
2008  Carver Arena (Augustana)  1203 (EC @ AC)  1723 (IWU @ AC)
2007  Carver Arena (Augustana)    703 (NCC @ AC)  364 (EC @ AC)
2006  Carver Arena (Augustana)  1547 (IWU @ AC)

What happened in 2007???

Distance, probably. Augustana and Millikin are the two most remote outposts in the CCIW. They don't tend to draw as much in the way of road crowds as do the other six schools in the league, owing to the fact that Rock Island and Decatur are so far away from the league's Chicagoland demographic base. Illinois Wesleyan does travel well to Augie and Millikin for various sporting events (as is indicated by the IWU @ AC contests in '06 and '08), but, unlike the fans of the four schools based in the Chicago area (which is actually five, given how many Carthage fans live south of the Halas-Lombardi Line), Titans fans are used to the idea that they have to spend a lot of time in a car in order to get to a road CCIW game.

The alternative explanation is that it might've been a bad weather weekend in northern Illinois back in 2007.

In addition to distance, there is one other factor that potentially played a role, which you indirectly alluded to: the Titans finished 4-10 in conference play that year and sat out the tourney.  The Titans' busloads of, ah, young at heart fans weren't present on either night.  I expect that this impacted the gate.  I don't know how early the bus would typically arrive if the Titans had the late game (or, how quickly it would leave if they had the early game), but there was zero spillover to count in the gate of a non-Titan game that year because they were *all* non-Titan games.

The dichotomy between 1500+ fans when the Titan did play and less than 400 when it was Augie versus Elmhurst makes me wonder just how much home court advantage there was at Carver when the Vikes played IWU those other years.

Augie's spring beak is usually that week so almost no students and less college affiliated fans too. Throw in the lack of IWU and that explains it all.

Good luck to the 3 teams in the tourney.  Now that I live in ODAC country, I hope to see at least one CCIW team in Salem.

11
Midwest Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: December 06, 2012, 10:52:00 pm »
Nobody noted this today, but Augustana concluded its long-time cross-river rivalry with St. Ambrose last night with a 77-69 win.

How is it possible that we don't have any regular Augustana posters anymore?

I hope to follow closer and post after the new year.  I'm currently moving from CCIW land to ODAC land.  I never thought this young group would play as good as they have so far but the conference slate will most likely be another story.

12
National topics / Re: 2012 Pool C Prediction Thread....
« on: May 17, 2012, 09:27:36 pm »
I don't really see anything wrong with IWU being ranked ahead of Chicago, its just that someone screwed up and posted the uncorrected regional rankings.  Why they didn't post the regional rankings that were corrected by the national committee is beyond me.  Well, it was probably just an administrative thing and no one thought to make sure the correct one got posted.

13
Updated after today's games (Carthage keeps the hopes alive):

Team                       In-Tourney           Host
Augustana                  72.4%               19.8%
Carthage                     1.6%                 0.0%
Elmhurst                     69.8%               16.7%
Illinois Wesleyan          67.7%               17.2%
Millikin                         0.0%                 0.0%
North Central               41.7%                3.1%
North Park                   90.6%               42.2%
Wheaton                      56.3%                1.0%

14
Midwest Region / Re: BB: Regionals (Midwest) 2012 Whitewater WI
« on: May 02, 2012, 11:44:17 pm »
Don't the baseball teams usually end up taking a chartered flight with maybe 2 teams sharing a flight if possible.  Even if there were cheap tickets from one destination to another, have you ever tried getting 30 some tickets on 2 days notice?  Probably not cheap when trying to do that.

Easily could charter 2-3 teams on a flight out of the chicago area to the central regional and leave the midwest mostly intact

15
Updated:

Team                         In-Tourney             Host
Augustana                     70.7%               18.8%
Carthage                        1.2%                 0.0%
Elmhurst                       68.0%                15.6%
Illinois Wesleyan            64.5%                16.4%
Millikin                           0.0%                  0.0%
North Central                 40.2%                 2.3%
North Park                     88.3%                41.4%
Wheaton                        67.2%                 5.5%

Basically getting to 12 wins gets you in.  Augustana has a very good chance of hosting which would've seemed crazy a few weeks ago.  Hopefully these percentages are correct, the tiebreakers get pretty fuzzy at times.  These also take into account a 50-50 chance of winning any game.  Should be a great last weekend.

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