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Messages - augie_superfan

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1
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 05, 2015, 09:37:04 pm »
Some probabilities on the race for the #4 seed:

Chance NPU wins outright:  3.5%
Chance of tiebreaker:          10.9%
Chance NCC wins outright:  85.6%

Given NPU's earlier win vs. NCC, they only need to be within 1 game for the final matchup
(NPU win would take the 2-0 H2H tiebreaker)

Chances NPU 1 game behind for final matchup:  23.4%
Chances NPU/NCC tied for final matchup (winner gets in):  9.4%

2
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 04, 2015, 10:43:14 pm »
Updated after tonight's games:

#1 Seed Chance:
IWU - 56.9%
Augie - 23.6%
Elmhurst - 16.6%
NCC - 2.8%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney:
IWU - 99.9%
Augie - 99.7%
Elmhurst - 98.9%
NCC - 90.4%
NPU - 9.5%
Carthage - 0.8%
Millikin - 0.7%
Wheaton - 0.0%

3
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 03, 2015, 04:42:27 pm »
Re-ran my simulation with the updated numbers.  Large change for the #1 seed as expected and a little bit of hope for those looking to steal that 4th seed from NCC.

Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana  48.4%
IWU           42.6%
Elmhurst     7.3%

Chance of Conf. Tourney
Augustana   99.7%
Carthage     8.6%
Elmhurst     96.4%
IWU           99.5%
Millikin        10.3%
NCC           74.6%
NPU            10.0%
Wheaton      0.8%

Outright #1 seed chance: 69.7%
Avg. 1st place wins:  10.8
Avg. 4th place wins   7.1

4
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 29, 2015, 12:33:47 pm »
Well after more exciting games last night, here are my updated probabilities.  I changed my program a bit to lessen the advantage of the favorites.  It's not strictly a coin flip but closer to it than my last post.  Here is where we stand after 8 games:


Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana - 74.3%
IWU - 22.5%
Elmhurst - 2.5%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney
Augustana - 100%
IWU - 98.5%
Elmhurst - 91.0%
NCC - 63.8%
Millikin - 20.5%
Carthage - 16.5%
Wheaton - 5.3%
NPU - 4.5%

Chance of Outright Champion - 81.8%
Avg. Wins of #1 seed - 11.2
Avg. Wins of #4 seed - 7.0

5
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 28, 2015, 01:36:32 pm »
I haven't had the time to continue my ranking system the past few years but thought I would quickly run a simulation of the rest of the conference season to see how it may play out.  It simulated the remaining conference games 100,000 times and the following are some stats from the simulation:

NOTE:  Probabilities of winning a future game are not 50-50 but are determined by a Massey-like approach in team strengths.

Chance of Top Seed
Augie - 62.5%
IWU - 21.7%
Elmhurst - 15.5%
NCC - 0.3%

Chance of Conf. Tourney
Augie - 99.4%
IWU - 97.5%
Elmhurst - 96.6%
NCC - 83.1%
Carthage - 16.5%
Millikin - 5.7%
Wheaton - 1.3%
NPU - 0.1%

Avg. Wins of Conf. Champ = 11.7
Avg. Wins of 4th place = 7.5

Chance of Outright Champ = 72.7%
Chance of 2-way tie = 22.4%
Chance of 3-way tie = 4.8%

6
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:26:51 pm »
There are a few Davids floating around in this late set of games tonight

7
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:20:12 pm »
For anyone interested, UW-Stevens Point is only up 1 on Marian with about 6 minutes to go

8
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:03:02 pm »
15-0 run for Webster?  Up by 1 now

9
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 08:14:53 pm »
No doubt it is harder than it looks.  The young lady is doing a nice job picking up the slack.

Augie trying to put this one away, up 7 with 1 minute to play.

10
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:47:16 pm »
"The Tommies won't stop chasing the mouse"???  What is going on with this commentary on the webcast?

11
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:33:27 pm »
Mine seems to stop every few minutes and I have to reload the page to get it going again.

12
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:27:57 pm »
Augie up 39-33 at half.  Ben Ryan with 9 pts/6 rebs at the half.  Hunter Hill picked up his 3rd foul right at the end of the first half (terrible call btw). 

13
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:06:06 pm »
I don't know Massey's exact predictive stats but 2 years ago when I had the time to run my own "Massey-like" ranking system, it predicted about 73% of the games correctly.  My assumption is that his is within a few percentage points either way of that value.  And that is predicting all games (some 5000 or so).

14
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Regional Realignment
« on: February 27, 2013, 09:09:11 pm »
So, is it now possible that a game between 2 teams could count for one team and not the other?  If Team A plays Team B in an out-of-region contest, and Team A has greater than 70% of regional games then this game is taken into account for them.  However, if Team B only has 60% regional games then the game wouldn't count for Team B?  Is this possible or am I thinking about this wrong?

15
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 24, 2013, 10:22:58 pm »
* The what seemed low attendance for the Wesleyan/Augie game Friday night. I was very surprised with the large number of open seats during that game especially given that, with two wins, IWU had a great chance to cement a top regional ranking.

I was struck by the sight of so many empty seats for that game as well, so I went back and looked at the attendance numbers for CCIW tourney games involving the host school:

2013  Shirk Center (Illinois Wesleyan)  1475 (AC @ IWU)
2012  Merner Field House (North Central)  1778 (AC @ NCC)  2050 (WC @ NCC)
2011  Merner Field House (North Central)  1458 (IWU @ NCC)
2010  Tarble Arena (Carthage)  1875 (AC @ CC)  2410 (IWU @ CC)
2009  King Arena (Wheaton)  2537 (NCC @ WC)  2589 (EC @ WC)
2008  Carver Arena (Augustana)  1203 (EC @ AC)  1723 (IWU @ AC)
2007  Carver Arena (Augustana)    703 (NCC @ AC)  364 (EC @ AC)
2006  Carver Arena (Augustana)  1547 (IWU @ AC)

What happened in 2007???

Distance, probably. Augustana and Millikin are the two most remote outposts in the CCIW. They don't tend to draw as much in the way of road crowds as do the other six schools in the league, owing to the fact that Rock Island and Decatur are so far away from the league's Chicagoland demographic base. Illinois Wesleyan does travel well to Augie and Millikin for various sporting events (as is indicated by the IWU @ AC contests in '06 and '08), but, unlike the fans of the four schools based in the Chicago area (which is actually five, given how many Carthage fans live south of the Halas-Lombardi Line), Titans fans are used to the idea that they have to spend a lot of time in a car in order to get to a road CCIW game.

The alternative explanation is that it might've been a bad weather weekend in northern Illinois back in 2007.

In addition to distance, there is one other factor that potentially played a role, which you indirectly alluded to: the Titans finished 4-10 in conference play that year and sat out the tourney.  The Titans' busloads of, ah, young at heart fans weren't present on either night.  I expect that this impacted the gate.  I don't know how early the bus would typically arrive if the Titans had the late game (or, how quickly it would leave if they had the early game), but there was zero spillover to count in the gate of a non-Titan game that year because they were *all* non-Titan games.

The dichotomy between 1500+ fans when the Titan did play and less than 400 when it was Augie versus Elmhurst makes me wonder just how much home court advantage there was at Carver when the Vikes played IWU those other years.

Augie's spring beak is usually that week so almost no students and less college affiliated fans too. Throw in the lack of IWU and that explains it all.

Good luck to the 3 teams in the tourney.  Now that I live in ODAC country, I hope to see at least one CCIW team in Salem.

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