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Messages - augie_superfan

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1
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 11, 2017, 09:03:23 pm »
What a fantastic run for this rather young Augie team.  Can't wait to see them in Salem next weekend!

2
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 03, 2017, 08:25:19 pm »
Chrishawn Orange hit a running trey at the buzzer from the top of the key as Augie dethroned St. Thomas, 77-74. Augie was down by eight with under 40 seconds remaining, and came back to tie it up with ten seconds remaining on a pair of Nolan Ebel FTs. The UST ballhandler was called for a charge with three seconds left, and Orange threaded his way through the defense to hit the 21-foot runner as time expired.

That was a crazy last minute, unbelievable!

3
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 14, 2017, 12:53:53 pm »
Just some fun with numbers (assuming 50% chance of winning each remaining game)

Hosting chances
Augie - 88.7%  (75% by winning at least 1 game, 12.3% by losing both but no one getting to 11 wins, plus some small tiebreakers)
North Park - 5.7%
IWU - 4.7%
Carthage - 1%

Average # of wins for each place in conference
1st - 12
2nd - 10.3
3rd - 9.8
4th - 8.9
5th - 8.4

Odds of 4th place having "x" amount of wins
Wins    % of time      chances there would be a tie for 4th?
  8          0.2%          100%  (4-way tie for 4th-7th place)
  9         72.7%         90.1%
 10        26.9%          8.7%
 11         0.2%           0%    (4-way tie for 1st-4th place)

I don't think anyone can clinch or be eliminated from the tournament tomorrow night but there are too many multiple team tiebreakers to consider at this point, we will see after Wednesday's results and things might be a bit more clear

4
National topics / Re: BB: Pool C
« on: May 13, 2016, 08:34:25 pm »
Was looking at some of the possible Pool C teams and a lot of them have hurt their chances in a big way.  It really appears to have softened the bubble quite a bit.  It will be interesting to see how these conference tournaments finish up.

Webster            1-2
Ohio Wesleyan  0-2
Adrian               0-2
St. Thomas       0-2
Endicott            1-2
Western NE       0-2
Stevens             0-2

5
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
« on: April 28, 2016, 09:27:09 pm »
Rankings seem pretty reasonable.  I'm surprised Augustana is ahead of Buena Vista.  One of those teams might have a shot at a Pool C bid if they finish the season strong and lose in their conference championship games (barring a ton of upsets across the nation).

6
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
« on: April 25, 2016, 09:49:09 am »
My Central Rankings through this weekend's games:

1.  North Central (IL)
2.  Wartburg
3.  Grinnell
4.  Wash U
5.  Buena Vista
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Luther
10. Beloit

My central rankings would look like this:

1.  Wartburg
2.  North Central (IL)
3.  Buena Vista
4.  Grinnell
5.  Wash U
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Wheaton (IL)

7
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
« on: April 22, 2016, 11:48:32 am »
My central rankings would look like this:

1.  Wartburg
2.  North Central (IL)
3.  Buena Vista
4.  Grinnell
5.  Wash U
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Wheaton (IL)

8
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 16, 2016, 02:02:44 pm »
Here are the final odds for the Final 4 and Championship game:

Team                    Final 2          Win Championship
Benedictine            79.6%                51.1%
Amherst                 20.4%                 6.1%
CNU                      35.6%                 12.4%
St. Thomas            64.4%                 30.4%



10
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 09, 2016, 10:58:08 pm »
Updated Tourney Odds

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney-odds-before-sweet-16
Is there a webpage for the women?

Sorry, I don't follow the women very closely but off the top of my head I'd say 60% Thomas More wins it all

12
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 06, 2016, 10:19:45 pm »
Endicott over Catholic would be #1 by my calculations.



13
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 05, 2016, 10:07:41 am »
Updated probabilities after the round 1 games

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney/2016-tourney1

Hopefully another great slate of games tonight following yesterday's excitement.

14
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 04, 2016, 08:24:51 pm »
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
Do you have historical upset records?  Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.

Only other year I did something similar was 2012 so I don't have much to compare to but I would assume last year's run was the most unlikely in quite some time.

15
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 04, 2016, 06:03:59 pm »
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

Benedictine and Augustana are good teams this year that very well could take home the banner, but a 26.1% and 21% chance to win the whole thing!? That's almost even money those two vs. the field.

And Augie could potentially have to go through Hope (#9), Emory(#25), Whitworth (#3), Christopher Newport(#4), and Benidictine(#2) to do it... color me skeptical, but I might have to call your "adjustments" into question :)

Understandable, but the adjustments I reference actually make it "less" likely that a favorite will win thus decreasing the top team's probabilities a bit.  If you don't believe the rankings of a computer ranking system then you shouldn't trust these either.

Out of curiosity, what do you think Hope's chances of beating Augustana are?

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