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Messages - augie_superfan

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1
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 14, 2015, 09:49:57 pm »
Unbelievable night for Augustana. There aren't many words needed to describe that effort on both ends of the floor tonight.  Just one of those special nights.  Congrats to the team on a great accomplishment of making the Final Four and good luck.  See you in Salem!!!

2
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 08, 2015, 10:37:16 pm »
Updated odds of advancement:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoyYTFlNDI1OTljZWUwNzU1

Top Odds Of Winning Championship
UW-Stevens Point     17.0%
Babson                      14.5%
Augustana                 13.1%
Randolph-Macon       12.8%
St. Olaf                      7.7%
VA Wesleyan              5.9%
ETBU                         5.8%
Marietta                     5.7%

The Augustana sectional is the most "wide-open" with all 4 teams being of relatively equal strength.  The home court advantage puts Augustana over the top.  Should be some great games on Friday and Saturday

3
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 07, 2015, 12:59:02 pm »
Updated odds after round 1 yesterday:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoyZjE0NzYwY2VkYjVjZjg5

Big increases for some teams as the top 2 most probable to win it all go down (St. Thomas & UWW).

The most likely to win remaining:
Augustana             12.7%
Randolph-Macon   12.1%
Babson                  11.4 %
UW-Stevens Point  9.6%
St. Olaf                  7.4%
Marietta                 6.2%
Mount Union          4.4%

So, if the trend continues today, look for a few of these to lose tonight.  Should be another great night of games!

4
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
« on: March 05, 2015, 07:04:28 pm »
For anyone interested, I simulated the tournament using Massey ratings.  You can see the full results in the attached PDF file (won't let me upload so here is a link to it)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoxZjUwMWM4YTE1Yzg5ZWM5

The way to read the spreadsheet is value is the probability of the team reaching a certain round (last column is probability of winning it all).

Top Chances of Winning Tourney
St. Thomas                                17.3%
UW-Whitewater                          14.9%
UW-Stevens Point                       8.8%
Randolph-Macon                         8.7%
Babson                                        8.6%
Augustana                                   8.6%

From this simulation, I can compare it to a "properly seeded" (according to Massey) tournament to rank the "Easiest" and "Hardest" roads to the Final Four.  Here they are below:

Easiest
Richard Stockton
Trinity (CT)
Endicott
Eastern CT
Salisbury
Dickinson
Johns Hopkins

Hardest
Elmhurst
Ohio Wesleyan
Wash U
IWU
St. Olaf
St. Norbert
CMS

5
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 05, 2015, 09:37:04 pm »
Some probabilities on the race for the #4 seed:

Chance NPU wins outright:  3.5%
Chance of tiebreaker:          10.9%
Chance NCC wins outright:  85.6%

Given NPU's earlier win vs. NCC, they only need to be within 1 game for the final matchup
(NPU win would take the 2-0 H2H tiebreaker)

Chances NPU 1 game behind for final matchup:  23.4%
Chances NPU/NCC tied for final matchup (winner gets in):  9.4%

6
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 04, 2015, 10:43:14 pm »
Updated after tonight's games:

#1 Seed Chance:
IWU - 56.9%
Augie - 23.6%
Elmhurst - 16.6%
NCC - 2.8%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney:
IWU - 99.9%
Augie - 99.7%
Elmhurst - 98.9%
NCC - 90.4%
NPU - 9.5%
Carthage - 0.8%
Millikin - 0.7%
Wheaton - 0.0%

7
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 03, 2015, 04:42:27 pm »
Re-ran my simulation with the updated numbers.  Large change for the #1 seed as expected and a little bit of hope for those looking to steal that 4th seed from NCC.

Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana  48.4%
IWU           42.6%
Elmhurst     7.3%

Chance of Conf. Tourney
Augustana   99.7%
Carthage     8.6%
Elmhurst     96.4%
IWU           99.5%
Millikin        10.3%
NCC           74.6%
NPU            10.0%
Wheaton      0.8%

Outright #1 seed chance: 69.7%
Avg. 1st place wins:  10.8
Avg. 4th place wins   7.1

8
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 29, 2015, 12:33:47 pm »
Well after more exciting games last night, here are my updated probabilities.  I changed my program a bit to lessen the advantage of the favorites.  It's not strictly a coin flip but closer to it than my last post.  Here is where we stand after 8 games:


Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana - 74.3%
IWU - 22.5%
Elmhurst - 2.5%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney
Augustana - 100%
IWU - 98.5%
Elmhurst - 91.0%
NCC - 63.8%
Millikin - 20.5%
Carthage - 16.5%
Wheaton - 5.3%
NPU - 4.5%

Chance of Outright Champion - 81.8%
Avg. Wins of #1 seed - 11.2
Avg. Wins of #4 seed - 7.0

9
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 28, 2015, 01:36:32 pm »
I haven't had the time to continue my ranking system the past few years but thought I would quickly run a simulation of the rest of the conference season to see how it may play out.  It simulated the remaining conference games 100,000 times and the following are some stats from the simulation:

NOTE:  Probabilities of winning a future game are not 50-50 but are determined by a Massey-like approach in team strengths.

Chance of Top Seed
Augie - 62.5%
IWU - 21.7%
Elmhurst - 15.5%
NCC - 0.3%

Chance of Conf. Tourney
Augie - 99.4%
IWU - 97.5%
Elmhurst - 96.6%
NCC - 83.1%
Carthage - 16.5%
Millikin - 5.7%
Wheaton - 1.3%
NPU - 0.1%

Avg. Wins of Conf. Champ = 11.7
Avg. Wins of 4th place = 7.5

Chance of Outright Champ = 72.7%
Chance of 2-way tie = 22.4%
Chance of 3-way tie = 4.8%

10
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:26:51 pm »
There are a few Davids floating around in this late set of games tonight

11
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:20:12 pm »
For anyone interested, UW-Stevens Point is only up 1 on Marian with about 6 minutes to go

12
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 10:03:02 pm »
15-0 run for Webster?  Up by 1 now

13
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 08:14:53 pm »
No doubt it is harder than it looks.  The young lady is doing a nice job picking up the slack.

Augie trying to put this one away, up 7 with 1 minute to play.

14
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:47:16 pm »
"The Tommies won't stop chasing the mouse"???  What is going on with this commentary on the webcast?

15
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:33:27 pm »
Mine seems to stop every few minutes and I have to reload the page to get it going again.

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