Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 24, 2013, 06:16:26 pm

Quote from: newCCIWfan on February 24, 2013, 05:44:32 pm

Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 24, 2013, 05:38:17 pm

Quote from: AndOne on February 24, 2013, 04:50:58 pm

* The what seemed low attendance for the Wesleyan/Augie game Friday night. I was very surprised with the large number of open seats during that game especially given that, with two wins, IWU had a great chance to cement a top regional ranking.

I was struck by the sight of so many empty seats for that game as well, so I went back and looked at the attendance numbers for CCIW tourney games involving the host school:

2013	Shirk Center (Illinois Wesleyan)	1475 (AC @ IWU)
2012	Merner Field House (North Central)	1778 (AC @ NCC)	2050 (WC @ NCC)
2011	Merner Field House (North Central)	1458 (IWU @ NCC)
2010	Tarble Arena (Carthage)	1875 (AC @ CC)	2410 (IWU @ CC)
2009	King Arena (Wheaton)	2537 (NCC @ WC)	2589 (EC @ WC)
2008	Carver Arena (Augustana)	1203 (EC @ AC)	1723 (IWU @ AC)
2007	Carver Arena (Augustana)	703 (NCC @ AC)	364 (EC @ AC)
2006	Carver Arena (Augustana)	1547 (IWU @ AC)

What happened in 2007???

Distance, probably. Augustana and Millikin are the two most remote outposts in the CCIW. They don't tend to draw as much in the way of road crowds as do the other six schools in the league, owing to the fact that Rock Island and Decatur are so far away from the league's Chicagoland demographic base. Illinois Wesleyan does travel well to Augie and Millikin for various sporting events (as is indicated by the IWU @ AC contests in '06 and '08), but, unlike the fans of the four schools based in the Chicago area (which is actually five, given how many Carthage fans live south of the Halas-Lombardi Line), Titans fans are used to the idea that they have to spend a lot of time in a car in order to get to a road CCIW game.

The alternative explanation is that it might've been a bad weather weekend in northern Illinois back in 2007.

In addition to distance, there is one other factor that potentially played a role, which you indirectly alluded to: the Titans finished 4-10 in conference play that year and sat out the tourney.  The Titans' busloads of, ah, young at heart fans weren't present on either night.  I expect that this impacted the gate.  I don't know how early the bus would typically arrive if the Titans had the late game (or, how quickly it would leave if they had the early game), but there was zero spillover to count in the gate of a non-Titan game that year because they were *all* non-Titan games.

The dichotomy between 1500+ fans when the Titan did play and less than 400 when it was Augie versus Elmhurst makes me wonder just how much home court advantage there was at Carver when the Vikes played IWU those other years.

Augie's spring beak is usually that week so almost no students and less college affiliated fans too. Throw in the lack of IWU and that explains it all.

Good luck to the 3 teams in the tourney.  Now that I live in ODAC country, I hope to see at least one CCIW team in Salem.

I don't really see anything wrong with IWU being ranked ahead of Chicago, its just that someone screwed up and posted the uncorrected regional rankings.  Why they didn't post the regional rankings that were corrected by the national committee is beyond me.  Well, it was probably just an administrative thing and no one thought to make sure the correct one got posted.

Don't the baseball teams usually end up taking a chartered flight with maybe 2 teams sharing a flight if possible.  Even if there were cheap tickets from one destination to another, have you ever tried getting 30 some tickets on 2 days notice?  Probably not cheap when trying to do that.

Easily could charter 2-3 teams on a flight out of the chicago area to the central regional and leave the midwest mostly intact

Here are the updated numbers:

Team Name                Tourney           Host
Augustana                    72.8%           16.3%
Carthage                       1.0%             0.0%
Elmhurst                      69.5%            23.6%
Illinois Wesleyan           65.0%            16.4%
Millikin                          0.0%              0.0%
North Central                42.1%            2.3%
North Park                    82.6%            36.9%
Wheaton                       67.0%            4.6%

Some real bad baseball being played in Decatur today.  Carthage losing 11-7 going to the top of the 9th.  Each team has 5 errors in this 2nd game alone.

I wrote a little computer program last night that simulates all the possible outcomes of the remaining series and then figures out the standings and tiebreakers.  This way we can see what the chances are that a team can make the tourney and also host the tourney.  These are probably slightly off because some of the tiebreakers get pretty complicated and I didn't have time to fully implement everything but it should be pretty close.  It'll have some inconsistencies with the 5 and 6 way ties..yes, there were 7 instances of 6 way ties possible.

These are calculated after Friday's 3 games and also I simplified the simulation by assuming Millikin will only win 0 or 1 games in each of their remaining series (against Cathage & Augustana).  I'll re run this after this weekend when there will only be 4^4 = 256 possible outcomes.


Team Name              In Tourney            Host
Augustana                   64.9%               7.2%
Carthage                     20.3%               0.2%
Elmhurst                     63.4%               19.8%
Illinois Wesleyan          78.9%               30.7%
Millikin                         0.0%                 0.0%
North Central               61.6%               15.6%
North Park                   80.0%               25.8%
Wheaton                     31.0%                0.7%

Quote from: onetinsoldier on March 12, 2012, 10:55:51 am

Quote from: pjunito on February 29, 2012, 12:26:35 pm

Tournament Odds


https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/tourney-odds

Hey pjunito

this site was a great help in filling out the bracket.  Amazing fun comparing original odds to what actually happened.  do you know if one is/was done for the D1 tournament as well?

Those rankings were done by a poster on these boards, augie_superfan, so you could email him directly to ask him.

Ken Pomeroy has his tournament odds up....http://kenpom.com/blog/