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Topics - wally_wabash

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1
General football / Pool C - 2017
« on: October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 am »
Feels like a good week to drop the first eliminator table of the season and thinking about those at-large bids.  Plenty of interesting results through the first half of the season that have shaken things up a bit.  I'll have the first table up this evening. 

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General football / Pool C in 2016
« on: October 13, 2016, 10:25:03 pm »
I'm going to spin up the eliminator analysis again this year.  It was a fun exercise last year and I think people found it interesting.  If you didn't see this last year, here's what I'm doing:
- Basically all of these teams can still technically win their league and qualify through Pool A.  That's not what this is.  This is an at-large eliminator.  What I've tried to do here is identify teams that are out of consideration for Pools B and C. 
- My methodology here has tried to err on the side of inclusion, even if the odds for some of these teams putting together a Pool B/C profile are already very slim.  So you'll see some teams down here in green and say "come on...they aren't making it in".  You're probably right.  But we'll eliminate those teams as it happens. 

Here's what I've got through last Saturday's games:





Basically at this point, I've only eliminated teams with three losses and teams that lost twice out of conference (meaning that in order to get into the at-large pool they would have to lose a league game, which would be a third loss and a de facto disqualifier).  Next week I plan to do a deeper dive into the various standings in the leagues and identify some more teams that meet the following criteria: low SOS without future opportunities for RRO wins, two-loss teams with games left against league leaders (basically teams that are in win out and qualify automatically or lose a third game and be eliminated).  There are some teams that probably fit this bill already, but enough of them that I'd prefer to wait one more week and have some of them get knocked out on their own and lessen the analysis time I need to spend. 

We'll get around to talking about who is IN the tournament more in a couple of weeks.  Hopefully taking a look at who is out will tide us over until then.   :)

3
General football / Pool C -- 2015
« on: September 29, 2015, 08:59:25 pm »
Ok, let's try something new.  In a few weeks, we'll start talking about who might be going to be IN the tournament.  Between now and then, I thought it would be interesting to see who's already OUT of the tournament.  Some caveats:
- Basically all of these teams can still technically win their league and qualify through Pool A.  That's not what this is.  This is an at-large eliminator.  What I've tried to do here is identify teams that are out of consideration for Pools B and C. 
- My methodology here has tried to err on the side of inclusion, even if the odds for some of these teams putting together a Pool B/C profile are already very slim.  So you'll see some teams down here in green and say "come on...they aren't making it in".  You're probably right.  But we'll eliminate those teams as it happens. 
- There were plenty of teams riding the fence here and thumbs up/thumbs down broke different ways for different reasons.  I'll try to highlight some of them in a later post. 

Thanks to ExTartanPlayer and Bombers798891 for extra eyes on this and making sure I'm reasonably consistent.  That's a lot of teams and lot of leagues to sort through and this is probably a mess without the extra help.  And with that, I present the first Pool B/C Eliminator table, arranged by region and conference.  Teams that I believe are out of at-large contention are in red, teams that I believe are still alive are in green, and Pool B eligible teams are marked with an asterisk(*), all as of Week 4 results.

   CCIW      HCAC      MIAA      NACC      NCAC      OAC   
   Carthage      Earlham      Hope      Cocnordia(Wis)      Allegheny      Muskingum   
   Augustana      Hanover      Alma      Aurora      Hiram      Marietta   
   North Park      Bluffton      Kalamazoo      Wis Lutheran      Wooster      Heidelberg   
   Millikin      Anderson      Adrian      Benedictine      Oberlin      Wilmington   
   North Central      Defiance      Trine      Lakeland      OWU      B-W   
   Elmhurst      MSJ      Olivet      CUC      Kenyon      Otterbein   
   Wheaton      Manchester      Albion      Rockford      Witt      Capital   
   IWU      Franklin                  Denison      ONU   
         RHIT                  Wabash      Mount Union   
                           DePauw      John Carroll   

   IIAC      IND      MIAC      MWC      NWC      SCIAC      UMAC      WIAC   
   BVC      Finlandia*      St. Olaf      Lawrence      L&C      Redlands      IWC      Eau Claire   
   Dubuque      Maranatha*      Carleton      Macalester      Willamette      Chapman      Martin Luther      River Falls   
   Loras            Hamline      Carroll      PLU      Whittier      Greenville      La Crosse   
   Coe            Augsburg      Ripon      UPS      P-PC      Crown      Stout   
   Simpson            C-MC      Beloit      Pacific      CMS      MacMurray      SP   
   Luther            St. John's      Grinnell      George Fox      Laverne      Eureka      Oshkosh   
   Central            Bethel      Lake Forest      Whitworth      Occidental      Minn-Morris      Platteville   
   Wartburg            St. Thomas      IC      Linfield      Cal Lutheran      SSC      Whitewater   
               Gustavus Adolphus      Cornell                  Westminster         
                     Knox                  Northwestern         
                     Monmouth                           
                     St. Norbert                           

   ASC      CC      ODAC      PAC      SAA      SCAC      USAC   
   LC*      McDaniel      Randolph-Macon      Grove City      Sewanee      Southwestern*      Averett   
   Bellhaven*      Juniata      Catholic      Thiel      Millsaps      Austin*      Ferrum   
   HPU*      Dickinson      E&H      Waynesburg      Hendrix      TLU*      NCWC   
   SRSU*      Ursinus      Bridgewater      CMU      Rhodes      Trinity*      LaGrange   
   McMurry*      Susquehenna      H-SC      Bethany      WashU            Greensboro   
   ETBU*      Muhlenberg      W&L      St. Vincent      B-SC            Huntingdon   
   UMHB*      Moravian      Shenandoah      Westminster      Centre            Methodist   
   H-SU*      Gettysburg      Guilford      Geneva      Berry            Maryville   
         F&M            CWRU      Chicago               
         Johns Hopkins            Thomas More                     
                     W&J                     

   ECFC      Empire 8      IND      LL      MAC      MASCAC      NEFC      NJAC   
   Mount Ida      Buffalo St.      Alfred St.*      Union      Misericordia      Worcester State      Curry      So Virginia   
   Anna Maria      Hartwick            St. Lawrence      Wilkes      Plymouth State      Nichols      TCNJ   
   Norwich      SJF            RPI      Leb Valley      Westfield State      Maine Maritime      Montclair St.   
   Gallaudet      Utica            USMMA      Lycoming      Bridgewater St.      Salve Regina      Salisbury   
   Husson      Morrisville St.            Springfield      King's      Western Conn.      MIT      WPU   
   Castleton      Brockport St.            WPI      FDU-F      Mass-Dartmouth      Endicott      CNU   
   Becker      Alfred            Hobart      Widener      Mass-Maritime      Coast Guard      Frostburg St.   
   SUNY-MC      Ithaca            Rochester      Del Valley      Framingham St.      Western NE      Rowan   
         Cortland St.                  Albright      Fitchburg State            Kean   
                           Stevenson                  Wesley   

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General football / Pool C -- 2014
« on: October 14, 2014, 04:07:07 pm »
Coming soon to this space...playoff projections! 

Something new this year that I'm going to do is that I'm going to use the regional fan rankings as a substitute for regional rankings.  We've got a lot of really smart people putting time and thought into those things so I think it'll be good to pull that input in between now and November when we get official NCAA regional rankings.  The exception being the West which doesn't have any fan balloting/rankings on Post Patterns so that will continue to be left up to my own whims. 

I'll try to have something out here sometime tomorrow.  Just a quick overview- the Pool breakdown is 24/2/6 (A/B/C) this year pending the SAA's AQ status.  I know Pat had mentioned that he has a question in to the home office in Indy about whether or not the SAA gets an auto bid or not.  This is significant because if the SAA goes to Pool A, I believe Pool B shrinks to 1 (if my math is correct) and this is significant because it's not just a matter of moving the SAA champ from B and A with a zero net change to the field.  The SAA champ may not stack up in Pool B- as such, moving that at-large spot from Pool B to the SAA champ makes life really, really difficult for teams out there like Chicago, TLU, and the MASCAC champ because that one Pool B bid is going to Wesley and without a second Pool B slot, the door is more or less going to be slammed shut on these other teams. 

5
General football / Pool C -- 2012
« on: August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 am »
Never too early to worry about this, right?   :)

Just for fun (and maybe, just maybe, because I have an unhealthy obsession with Pool C selection), I leafed through the projections in Kickoff '12 (get it if you haven't yet...my guess is that most Pool C nuts have it) just to see what the selection pools might look like.  I'm not going to spoil Kickoff content by laying out what I've found here, but a couple of interesting things stick out...

- Pool C will be very, very tough.  Some really really good teams from really really good AQ leagues may well be sitting at home...
- ...because Pool B got a lot stronger this year.  I believe there will be just one Pool B selection (more next year I think), which is going to bump 1-2 really strong (as in slam dunk strong) candidates  and maybe two more very good candidates to Pool C.  Mark it down: there's going to be an independent stealing an at-large bid from a Pool A league runner up for the first time this year. 

Should clarify...I believe there is only one Pool B selection available, which isn't clear from above.  I believe there will likely be more than one Pool B-eligible teams that get selected. 

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