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Messages - wally_wabash

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1
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: October 17, 2019, 10:19:49 pm »
Column 5 here.  I'm still bullish on Hope even though they lost in Week 1. 

I'm not bullish on John Carroll and intend to start a secret conversation with my other voters here to oust the Streaks from the NRFP permanently because we don't do that around here.   :)

2
South Region football / Re: FB: American Southwest Conference
« on: October 16, 2019, 10:26:35 pm »
The NCAA page says that UMHB got two years probation (among other things) as a result of the rules infraction.  Does that mean that UMHB football becomes ineligible to compete in the postseason for the next two years, or what?  What, exactly, does "probation" entail?

No, they are not banned from postseason. If they were, they wouldn’t be ranked #1. I think it means that if something else were to happen, another infraction, we would probably be shut down.

Additional consequences, sure, but I'm sure there are steps between the penalties currently levied against UMHB and the death penalty. 

3
East Region football / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: October 16, 2019, 06:38:14 pm »
I agree with UFanBill that teams shouldn't actively create OOC schedules in order to chase SOS.  First, as noted, you can't control what those opponents are going to do.  Maryville(TN) was a playoff team in 2018 and have not won a game yet in 2019.  I don't think Maryville's OOC opponents expected them to be an anchor, but here we are.  Additionally, the weight given to SOS w/r to at-large consideration changes from year to year and committee to committee (both regional and national).  If you set a 2021 schedule based on inferred feedback from the 2018 ranking/selection process, you're playing to an audience that isn't going to be there by the time those games are played.  That target is always moving and almost never where you think it's going to be 2-4 years down the road. 

But that doesn't make the SOS useless.  We do have to have some way to differentiate the various 9-1 teams that have to be evaluated for at-large consideration and we have to do it with very little intersecting data due to the division's highly regionalized nature.  One way is to see which 9-1 team played a more difficult schedule.  SOS as it is now, attempts to do this but certainly isn't perfect.  In fact, it often fails extraordinarily, but it's the crude and unbiased metric that everybody has agreed to.  So that's what we've got. 

4
North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: October 16, 2019, 01:44:52 pm »
I wanted to circle back to this:

On the defense: This is a unit that had 9 starters returning, plus an FBS transfer.  Never mind comparing to Hammer-era Wabash defenses which is the thing that I know most are doing, just compare to last year.  The 2018 Wabash defense- which was young and inexperienced- yielded 160 points for the season compared to 123 already this year.  But that's not the part that makes me scratch my head- in 2018, this very same defense surrendered 74 first half points for the year (just about a touchdown and a smidge per game.  This year the defense has already given up 83 points in the first half, 16.6 points per game.

in light of sigma one's excellent point that Wabash's 2019 schedule is going to feature the six best offenses that Wabash will play in the first six weeks.  My year-over-year stats comparison included (struggling) teams that Wabash hasn't played yet.  So I did the same comparison just with the Wabash's five common opponents so far in 2018 and 2019. 

Vs. UWSP, ALL, DEN, OWU, and WOO in 2018 Wabash allowed 43 first half points, just about 8.6 points per first half.  So, that's unsurprisingly above the 2018 average of 7.4 points per first half, but not alarmingly so.  By contrast, Wabash gave up a total of 84 points in those five games last year, and have given up 83 points in the first halves against these five teams this year.  And that's the alarming part.  By points surrendered, Wabash is half as good as they were last year, which hasn't been good enough by half. 

Looking ahead to Saturday, I don't think this Wittenberg offense is fantastic- not nearly as good and experienced as they were last year, BUT, they'e settled on a QB, Jaheem Washington is really breaking out for them, and they seem to be figuring some stuff out.  That said, this Tiger offense is one that should be able to be adequately fenced in, which makes this week a pretty significant gut check for the hard hats. 

5
But man, that would be sweet if this gives them the freedom to do something more creative.  I would love to have that surprise on Selection Sunday.
But Wabash has two losses. ;)

Correct?  Not sure how that relates to this good news about the island teams and how it may lead to better, more balanced brackets. 

6
The rhetoric about island teams is interesting.  Are they working to get different first round opponents for the SCIAC and NWC?  Instead of each other or MHB?

I think it would be fantastic if they went in that direction, but I'm not banking on it.  I'd still bet on a NWC/SCIAC/ASC pod, just one that doesn't pit two teams from the same conference together in the first round. 

But man, that would be sweet if this gives them the freedom to do something more creative.  I would love to have that surprise on Selection Sunday. 

7
Thanks Wally! We're looking forward to both LINFIELD and Redlands finishing 9-1 - so Redlands can travel to McMinnville for the first round

Redlands @ Linfield in Round 1 seems extremely unlikely given this year's Redlands-Linfield head to head result.  I haven't thought much about how a bracket might look, but my initial thought is that the NWC champ comes back to the IE for Round 1 with Redlands going off to who knows where.  Or, and this is indicative of how strong I think Redlands' position is at the moment, I don't automatically rule out a Redlands Round 1 home game. 

8
QB did not check, the play was called by the OC. Redlands does not check much as a rule. Chapman was the better team, I doubt UR goes to the play offs. I am really ticked off at the some play calling. Did anyone see the replay of the game, did the kid get one foot in bounds from Chapman for the TD at the end of the first half. thanks

So right now Redlands has the #2 SOS in the division and, unless Linfield goes in the tank, are going to have a win against a regionally ranked opponent, possibly a fairly highly ranked opponent at that if Linfield runs the table.  Linfield winning is going to buoy Redlands in the regional rankings, which should guarantee them a fairly favorable spot in the West region's at-large pecking order, depending on how much the MIAC and WIAC non-champs beat each other up over the next month, it definitely isn't unreasonable for Redlands to be the top ranked at-large team in the West region.  That #2 SOS is going to recede a bit through the duration of the regular season, but they'll be in a good position with respect to the selection criteria as long as they stay clean through Nov. 16. 

9
Has a top 25 team ever not made the playoffs?

Absolutely.  This happens pretty frequently. 

10
North Region football / Re: FB: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: October 14, 2019, 11:02:01 am »
On the defense: This is a unit that had 9 starters returning, plus an FBS transfer.  Never mind comparing to Hammer-era Wabash defenses which is the thing that I know most are doing, just compare to last year.  The 2018 Wabash defense- which was young and inexperienced- yielded 160 points for the season compared to 123 already this year.  But that's not the part that makes me scratch my head- in 2018, this very same defense surrendered 74 first half points for the year (just about a touchdown and a smidge per game.  This year the defense has already given up 83 points in the first half, 16.6 points per game.  That's putting maximum pressure on Wabash's offense to be great to either keep pace with the first half shootout or chase down a deficit in the final 30 minutes.  That's hard to do, especially when...

On the offense: Wabash is decidedly green at QB and WR and while those positions have very nice players, they were supposed to be complimentary pieces to the defense (already discussed) and a backfield that now features two 2,000 yard career rushers.  Two!  The career #11 and #12 all time rushers at the same time and Wabash seems to have an incredibly hard time having either of them pick up 3 yards when they absolutely have to have one or two.  How many times has Wabash lost on 3rd and 1 or 2 or 4th and 1 or 2?  Ike James is pure diesel hemi and he has to use it all just to get back to the LOS on half of his carries.  The running game this season has been limited when Wabash has needed it most, and they've really just got to do better in the front five.  Have to.  Because while Liam Thompson is fantastic, he's going to have a game here and there where he's just ok and not great.  Wabash shouldn't have to put it all on his individual talent every week to pull a win out of the hat.  But that's what's happening with a defense that doesn't start well and an OL that isn't adequately run blocking for the two of the best the program has ever had.  Wooster has some good players in their front 7 and Brown is a beast, but they looked like UMHB on Saturday and some of that is on Wabash. 

I think the first tie breaker is head to head. So if (a big IF) Wabash beats Witt and wins out, they would get the automatic bid.  Two big tasks.  I guess that's something the coaches can use to buck up the troops this week.

There's also still a chance Denison and OWU (theoretically) could get it too, right

Wooster and Wittenberg, I believe, are the only teams at the moment that control their own fates.  This will clean up a bit in the next couple of weeks now that Wittenberg has reached the meaningful portion of their league schedule. 

11
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: October 12, 2019, 12:49:33 am »
The change in syntax is significant though, yes?  I mean, why change that language in that way if you’re still resigned to pairing ASC teams in the first round?  This feels deliberate and something done with an understanding between the national committee and whoever gives their suggested bracket the green light. 

12
Quote
A vacation of records is appropriate in this case because ineligible competition occurred and the head coach was directly involved in violations. In this and other similar cases, the vacation of records serves the exact purposes for which the penalty is intended: to foster accountability, restore fairness and deter future violations

I know the COI has to ride by this stuff but the penalty is supposed to:

1- Foster accountability: I mean, I guess.  I think Fredenburg has taken responsibility for this on the record several times and served a self-imposed suspension.  They did that without the vacation of records. 

2- Restore fairness: I don't think anybody actually questions whether or not UMHB's results were the result of unfair play.  Do they?  None of this is about on-field play, right? 

3- Deter future violations: I just don't think the vacation of past records has one ounce of impact on future conduct.  Not any more so than the steps UMHB and Coach Fredenburg took when owning the violation in the first place. 

13
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« on: October 10, 2019, 05:22:03 pm »
Is there not still subjectivity to the selection process or do they go strictly off of what the RAC submits?  If not do they just look at the highest ranked teams from each region that didn't get an AQ then make selections straight down the line or do they re-rank them for lack of a better term?  For example if they re-ranked the pool C teams:
South RR #1, 2, 3, 5, 6, & 8 get AQs then #4, 7, 9, & 10 go to pool C
East RR #1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, & 9 get AQs  then #2, 8, & 10 go to pool C
Pool C S #4, E #2, E #8, S #7, S #9, E #10, & S #10

I know there are 2 more regions but is this what the National Committee is charged to do?  I see the criteria from the link you posted last night but I didn't see this specifically.

The national committee takes the rankings from the regional committees, scrubs out the AQs (as you have done) then evaluate just the top remaining team from each region against one another using the published criteria.  So it's not automatic that, using your example, E2 would be selected before S4.  They would be evaluated against one another and the committee would select the one they feel is the best, based on the published criteria. 

Here's a really early projection I did last year where I explain the mechanics of selection.  I'll probably start up with this exercise again after Week 7.  Maybe 8.  We'll see how it goes. 

... but all the South RAC would have to do is the put such a miscreant football program as UMHB behind a Centennial one-loss team and the five rounds would come and go.

Which would be a shame.  If the NCAA felt the penalties needed to include a postseason ban, they would have said so.  The South RAC needn't go vigilante here. 

14
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: October 10, 2019, 04:29:51 pm »
It would be nice to see something like NWC travels to SCIAC 1 and SCIAC 2 travels to UMHB.

Nice for who?  ;D

15
South Region football / Re: FB: American Southwest Conference
« on: October 10, 2019, 03:20:05 pm »
To me this is another case of Punish the mighty, win one for the little guy syndrome.

I think the penalty is silly, but this sentiment has literally never been the NCAA's modus operandi

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