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Messages - AndOne

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1
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: August 17, 2017, 06:38:38 pm »
nescac1,

I think when you base an analysis of something current on "how they finished last year," you might need to differentiate between how they finished with regard to what their total record was and how they fonished playing at the end of the year. North Central finished 18-11. Not that impressive overall. However, to only consider those numbers in assessing this season's team is, I believe, a bit shortsighted. Because equally important is how they finished playing near the end of the year. And, in NCC's case, they were playing some of their best basketball at season's end. Over the last 12 games they finished 9-3 with the 3 losses being a 6 point overtime loss to the national champion runner up (Augie), a 4 point overtime loss to the CCIW tourney #1 seed (Carthage), and a 1 point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover. Incidentally, they beat both Carthage and Augie in the conference tourney.
So, if you're asking if last year's record should be the primary factor in this year's assessment, my answers is no. I think how they were actually playing over the final part of the season is more important than their final record.

Lastly, just to be clear. There is no way in hell I was suggesting NCC should be the pre-season #1-3 team.
I agree with you that 4-7 is about right. The main thing is that, given the last time they played NCC won, the Cardinals shouldn't be more than one or two spots behind wherever Augie is placed.


Based off of this post, where do you have carthage?  As you referenced they were the CCIW #1 seed. Have majority of key contributors back and as you pointed out is important, had a very successful finish to the year. They went 7-1 in the back half of the CCIW round robin Including wins vs Augie and their 2nd win against north central.

I could see north central 4-7 as well, but you would have to really convince me how they could be far ahead of Carthage.

First of all, I think that the failure of Carthage to finish in last season's final Top 25, or even in the ORV, will hurt their chances of being included in either category in this year's pre-season rankings, if that's what you're asking.

You mentioned that they were the #1 seed in the conference tourney, have several key contributors back, and finished well including a 2nd win against NCC before losing to them in the conference tournament. However, keep in mind that two other schools won as many conference games as they did, that they lost both their leading scorer and their (very underrated) leading assist guy, and that the game they really needed in the conference tourney got away (to NCC).

Pluses for the upcoming season include the possible further development of Brad Perry, the emergence of Kienan Baltimore as a future all-conference player, the all-around play of Brad Kruse, and the big shot making ability of Jordan Thomas. Questions needing consideration include who will assume the top scorer position, who will QB the team and get the ball to the shooters/scorers mentioned above, and did they recruit any newbie who will emerge as a significant contributor. Disappointment should reign if CC doesn't finish in the top four of the conference and qualify for the tournament. I can see CC and IWU being top contenders for the 3rd and 4th spots. If they can get into the national tourney and win a game there, final Top 20-25 or ORV ranking is possible.

Lastly, as a direct comparison between CC and NCC heading into this season, keep in mind that in addition to what they had last year NCC gets Connor Raridon back, adds a D2 transfer, adds another transfer who led his team in scoring and was 5th in conference scoring, and adds, among others, a super athletic freshman who is both explosive on the offensive interior and plays a smothering brand of defense, along with another freshman who finished second in scoring in DuPage County, a great provider of top level D3 talent. IDK what noteworthy additions CC is making which helps lead me to the conclusion that there is a rather large gap between where NCC is likely to be ranked pre-season, and where CC may be ranked.
Hope that answers your question.

2
Catching footballs won't be a problem for the Cardinals. The coaches have borrowed the baseball team's pitching machine, and are using it to fire fastballs to the Cardinal receivers during practice.

3
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: August 16, 2017, 07:20:40 pm »
As all of us who know the difference between a 🏀 and a hole in the wall know, even very good teams sometimes have very stinky games.
Last season, in the next to the last CCIW game, NCC beat IWU (probably the CCIW's #3 team) by 2 points in OT. Three nights later, with Augustana playing to try to host the conference tourney, IWU basically obliterated Augie by 30! It was Augie's third loss in a row. Two games later NCC beat Augie in the conference tourney final. Augie then reignited and rode a hot streak to the national title game.
Sometimes you just don't know what you're gonna get. 🤔

4
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:27:55 pm »
nescac1,

I think when you base an analysis of something current on "how they finished last year," you might need to differentiate between how they finished with regard to what their total record was and how they fonished playing at the end of the year. North Central finished 18-11. Not that impressive overall. However, to only consider those numbers in assessing this season's team is, I believe, a bit shortsighted. Because equally important is how they finished playing near the end of the year. And, in NCC's case, they were playing some of their best basketball at season's end. Over the last 12 games they finished 9-3 with the 3 losses being a 6 point overtime loss to the national champion runner up (Augie), a 4 point overtime loss to the CCIW tourney #1 seed (Carthage), and a 1 point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover. Incidentally, they beat both Carthage and Augie in the conference tourney.
So, if you're asking if last year's record should be the primary factor in this year's assessment, my answers is no. I think how they were actually playing over the final part of the season is more important than their final record.

Lastly, just to be clear. There is no way in hell I was suggesting NCC should be the pre-season #1-3 team.
I agree with you that 4-7 is about right. The main thing is that, given the last time they played NCC won, the Cardinals shouldn't be more than one or two spots behind wherever Augie is placed.


5
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: August 16, 2017, 02:25:29 pm »
Add Junior Pierson Wofford to the discussion on Augustana. Wofford was removed from last year's team by the college (not a coaching decision) in late January, so he wasn't part of the playoff run.  Circumstances of the dismissal were a bit hazy, but he is now listed on the 2017-2018 roster. Wofford was the team's number 2 rebounder and was averaging over 10 points per game at the time of his dismissal.  The return of the highly athletic Wofford will be a significant addition for this year's Viking roster.

That's all and good... but I think this actually raises more questions than it answers... especially, how long until Wofford potentially gets into trouble again and is off the roster. I will take this news with a grain of sand and wait a bit before it peaks my interest.

Its highly curious why an offense serious enough for the school to remove a player from the team didn't elicit the same measure of action from the head coach, Grey Giovanine.
What was Giovanine looking at? Or, evidently, not looking at even though it was apparently obvious to the school administration.  :-\   :o

6
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: August 16, 2017, 02:10:58 pm »

But, the argument for Augustana is that (1) they are a more balanced team in terms of positional talent and (2) they were a team heavily featuring a ton of guys who were new to the team (or at least their roles) that naturally took some time to come together last year.   I was really impressed by their three frosh who played in the Final Four, who have a very high upside and should be a lot better next year.  The two frosh big man, in particular Micah Martin, are going to grow a ton as players -- Martin is going to be a truly fearsome rim protector even next season and will emerge on offense over time.  Very, very talented.  Nolan Ebel seemed to really grow in confidence and impact in the NCAA tourney as well.   Lucas Simon will make a much bigger impact (just looks like a future star down the line) and Chrishawn Orange is already an all-American talent despite being an underclassman last year.  Williams also had no answer for Brett Benning who was also in his first year in the program and should be a much bigger factor; I see him as an upgrade over the lone graduating senior --himself a very good player -- who I presume he will replace in the lineup.  Of the CCIW teams I've seen, their overall size, speed and athletic talent really stood out, and those are things you can't teach.  All of those guys are just scratching the surface.  I just think Augustana has more guys with a lot more unrealized upside potential than Whitman. 


As for North Central, their record last year (and I know injuries played a role) seems pretty weak for a preseason number 3 team.  All of the candidates have big question marks.  I think Williams will probably get that spot, deservedly, based on its post-season run, although I'd rather actually see the Ephs start a bit lower to temper expectations ... as great as they played in the NCAA tourney, they weren't even a top-25 caliber team until, really, the NESCAC tournament last year, and they do lose their star to graduation.  So it's unclear just how good Williams will be to start the season (and honestly, like Augustana I see Williams as likely peaking in 2018-19).  Williams on the other hand benefits from a much weaker New England region this year.  Last year, New England was just absolutely loaded -- four elite 8 teams (note, the Ephs went 3-2 in games vs. those teams), two final four squads, and of course the national champion (whose only full-stregth loss came to yet another talented New England team).  This year I'd be stunned if there were any more than 2 elite 8 teams (if that) and one final four squad emerging from the region.  A HUGE number of talented guys (including of course the national POY) graduated from the region in 2017.

A role? Make that a BIG role. Especially, considering the injury was to a pre-season All-American.

Also, exactly what relevance does last year's "pretty weak" record carry as far as how a team is expected to do this season? Especially when they will get the All-American back, and have added a D2 transfer who was ranked as the #41 player in Illinois two years ago, and another transfer who led his (D3) team and was 5th in the conference in scoring last season.

Lastly, keep in mind that last year's pretty weak record included a win over Augustana in the CCIW conference tournament, a win over a consistently strong Wooster team in the first round of the national tournament, and a one point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover (at Hanover) in the second round.   

Augustana is a great team. But remember, they had 9 losses last year. They got hot at the right time. I fully expect them to carry their excellence throughout this campaign. However, North Central ain't too bad either.  :)

7
Central Region / Re: MBB: Midwest Conference
« on: August 16, 2017, 01:36:03 pm »
For whatever it is worth Lawrence has ten first-year players coming to school this fall. On top of nine last year one wonders if they have enough uniforms...

They may not need as many uniforms as you might think.
I don't know if LU follows the policy, but some schools have only a certain number of varsity uniforms. Let's say its 15. If there are 23 kids on the team, the top 15 are designated as the varsity, and the remaining 8 as the JV team. When the JVs play, they wear the team's old uniforms-the set the varsity wore before they got their new (current) uniforms.
Its nice when every kid on the team has a new uniform. But, some schools might be reluctant to spend money on an extra 7-12 new uniforms just so the JV team can look dazzling in front of the 50 or so people who might show up for a JV game.

8
I think the coaches had a blue Kool-Aid beverage at lunch. I would love to see Elmhurst finishing where they poll,  I just don't see that happening.   Agree, the LBB game is going to (most likely) decide the conference championship.

Nope, not Kool-Aid.
Just prior to the voting, Ron Planz announced he was springing for mass quantities of post meeting adult beverages at one of the area's well known watering holes! 🍻  :o  ;)

9
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: August 12, 2017, 07:07:06 pm »
My understanding is:
1. The 546,428 figure for HS players is all players, not just seniors.
2. All (NCAA) college players are included, both varsity and JV.
3. If roughly 25% of the HS players are seniors, thats 136,607.
4. Yes, I think we're just talking NCAA as far as the 3.4%.
5. So, 3.4% of HS players go on to play NCAA basketball. But,
6. The total percentage of kids playing in HS that go on to play any level of college basketball is prob a little higher than 3.4%


10
Did you know? (Per the NCAA)

There were 1,083,308 players on high school football teams across the country n 2015-2016.

Of those, only 6.8% went on to play NCAA football in 2016-2017.

2.6% in Division I
1.8% in Division II
2.4% in Division III

11
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: August 12, 2017, 04:56:23 pm »
Did you know? (per the NCAA)

In 2015-2016 there were 546,428 players on high school basketball teams across the country.

Only 3.4% went on to play NCAA basketball in 2016-2017.

1.0% in Division I
1.0% in Division II
1.4% in Division III

12
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: August 12, 2017, 04:36:45 pm »
WHATEVER HAPPENED TO:

Former IWU star Andrew Ziemnik...........

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/d262384bb14e4e928910741ea8fddf0bad832cd8/c=49-0-1096-787/local/-/media/SiouxFalls/SiouxFalls/2014/10/31/635503664623890108-Farniok08.jpg

Grad school at Iowa State and a switch to playing a year of football?  ;)

13
What's happening at North Park these days?

Bracing for an invasion from Samoa?  :D

14
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: August 10, 2017, 11:46:32 pm »
On another subject............

It's going to be interesting to see which players, if any, who were expected to return to the various conference teams, don't. Especially, those who were expected to be at least somewhat meaningful contributors to their respective squads.

15
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: August 10, 2017, 10:55:48 pm »
If that's what Dave meant, I missed the signal and apologize.

Admittedly, I don't often criticize things NCC. But, over the years I've been perplexed several times by both always having the reported attendance figure ending in a 5 or 0, and at some reported totals with didn't seem to coincide very closely with the percentage of the stands that were filled vs the Hangar's 2,478 seats. 🤔

If anything, I think NCC figures are more often under estimated/reported as opposed to some schools which often seem to report inflated numbers.

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