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Messages - Colby Hoops

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1
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 20, 2020, 01:28:03 pm »

So what does the assemblage believe Amherst and Williams need to do in order to get an NCAA playoff bid?

Win the NESCAC tournament.

If Amherst wins two games and loses in the finals, and there are very few upsets elsewhere, maybe they sneak in.

Right now D3Bubble on Twitter has Midd as a Pool C lock, Colby as very safe, Tufts as safe and Amherst  as the 9th team out.

2
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 19, 2020, 02:53:54 pm »
If the season were to end today, and thankfully it doesn't, then Tufts would get a Pool C before Colby if they both weren't a Pool A selection.  Six losses vs two losses, that is hard to believe.

I actually think these rankings are good for Colby, despite being passed by WPI and staying behind Tufts. Both New England College and Ramapo jumped into the regional rankings, which would give Colby two extra wins against regionally ranked opponents (moving from 1-2 to 3-2). The NCAA (somewhat strangely) uses the previous week's rankings to calculate wins verse regionally ranked opponents, so this won't be reflected until the next regional rankings. Colby needs to hope Ramapo and NEC finish the season well.

It isn't strange that they use the previous week's. The RACs and national committee start from a clean slate each week. Not the previous week's rankings. So, they are looking at all the data (like we all can, somewhat, using the data sheets provided). The vRRO data shows what the teams have per the rankings that are technically current. They rank from there.

There is no way to retabulate that data and rerank without going through countless versions and having to find a stopping point - and even then the rankings will still not reflect the actual vRRO data for the current rankings because teams move in and out of the rankings each time they retabulate.

The only time the vRRO data is retabulated is at the very end ... when the very last rankings are compiled. You can find that in the Pool C chat board in the Multi-Regional grouping.

Good point, I didn't really consider that. Just seemed weird looking at the rankings and then the vRRO and them not matching up.

3
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 19, 2020, 02:15:59 pm »
If the season were to end today, and thankfully it doesn't, then Tufts would get a Pool C before Colby if they both weren't a Pool A selection.  Six losses vs two losses, that is hard to believe.

I actually think these rankings are good for Colby, despite being passed by WPI and staying behind Tufts. Both New England College and Ramapo jumped into the regional rankings, which would give Colby two extra wins against regionally ranked opponents (moving from 1-2 to 3-2). The NCAA (somewhat strangely) uses the previous week's rankings to calculate wins verse regionally ranked opponents, so this won't be reflected until the next regional rankings. Colby needs to hope Ramapo and NEC finish the season well.


4
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 17, 2020, 08:53:12 pm »
Makeup game that was snowed out against Southern Maine is coming back to bite Colby. They didn't come ready to play and are down 3 with 7 minutes to play.

Mules escape with a 93-91 win. Colby played well offensively led by Matt Hanna and Noah Tyson, but could not get a stop for basically the entire night. Jaire Roberts for USM was dominant -- made some really tough shots down the stretch. Relieved to escape with a win! 22-2 ain't too shabby.

5
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 17, 2020, 08:30:52 pm »
Makeup game that was snowed out against Southern Maine is coming back to bite Colby. They didn't come ready to play and are down 3 with 7 minutes to play.

6
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 17, 2020, 01:08:27 pm »
Thought it was fun to look at some of the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers from Matt Snyder: http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

They're pace adjusted, so much better than just looking at which teams scored or gave up the most points. Parentheses is the national rank. Also, these take into account the entire season, not just conference play.

A few things that jump out -- Amherst comes out favorably in these ratings (actually ranked second among NESCAC teams in overall efficiency rating). They've played better in stretches than the record indicates. Trinity is the complete opposite of past teams -- excellent offensively and pretty poor defensively. Colby's defense is underrated, they force a lot of turnovers and rarely foul, so they might look worse on eye test than they actually are. Bates is much worse on offense than I would've guessed, but they do have the worst fg% of any Nescac team. They're also higher on defense than I would've expected.

Best Adjusted Offense:
1. Colby (14)
2. Amherst (15)
3. Midd (18)
4. Trinity (19)
5. Hamilton (40)
6. Tufts (46)
7. Williams (83)
8. Wesleyan (153)
9. Bowdoin (156)
10. Bates (177)
11. Conn (329)

Best Adjusted Defense

1. Tufts (14)
2. Williams (18)
3. Wesleyan (22)
4. Bates (27)
5. Amherst (33)
6. Colby (35)
7. Midd (66)
8. Hamilton (102)
9. Trinity (154)
10. Bowdoin (296)
11. Conn (384)

7
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 16, 2020, 02:53:53 pm »
Wesleyan comes back from 12 down to beat Bowdoin---meaning Hamilton will be the final team in to the NESCAC tournament. Cruel reward for Tufts---Kena Gilmour coming to your gym for the NESCAC quarterfinals.

I think Hamilton has a real shot against Tufts. They're coming off a very dominant win over a good Trinity team, and they shot really poorly in their road loss at Tufts earlier this year.

Some really great matchups in this first round. Think the tournament is wide open. Only team I can't really see winning the whole thing is Bates, but I could certainly see them beating Colby (especially if Jefferson is still out).

8
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 15, 2020, 06:59:29 pm »
Colby Hoops, are you a Williamstown local??

Yup, moved to Billsville from Boston about 3 years ago. Root for the Ephs in any non-Colby games. Didn’t get to as many games in person this year, the 7 month old has to go to bed too early for the weeknight games!

9
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 15, 2020, 06:24:50 pm »
Either way, it will be a fun rivalry game in the 2-7 matchup. I'm hoping for a Bowdoin win -- they've been a pretty bad team for much of the year in the non-conference slate, including a loss on Wednesday to a bad Anna Maria team. Still, beating a team three times in one season is tough and that will be the case with either Bates or Bowdoin.

Wild end to that Bates-Midd game. Omar Sarr is so impactful when he stays out of foul trouble -- staying out of foul trouble is a major issue though. And cool for seniors Nick Gilpin and Jeff Spellman to end their regular season Nescac careers with such strong games in a big win.

Attended Tufts-Williams. Williams is such a good defensive team. If they can ever make a few from the outside they'd be really good. They really just can't score. Rogers outplayed Karp for the first 30 minutes of the game, and then Karp really dominated down the stretch. Impressive play from him. Don't usually comment on officiating, but there were a lot of very suspect calls in that game (both ways).

Also, credit to Conn College. They didn't get a win, but they played some competitive basketball this last weekend. They play hard and have some decent young talent. I do think they're headed in the right direction long term.

10
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 14, 2020, 10:16:17 pm »

Who among you is going to lay out the scenario for tomorrow's games impact on the opening round of the conference tourney?

Assuming Amherst, Trinity, and Middlebury all finish at 7-3, I think it will be Middlebury who gets the three seed because of their win against Tufts, followed by Trinity at 4 and Amherst at 5 due to head to head. This is obviously very unlikely but if Amherst loses to Conn and Williams beats Tufts, it will be the Ephs at 5 and Amherst at 6 because they’ll both be 6-4.

If you want to see in depth breakdown on the 7-10 seeding I posted one on Wednesday night. But basically if all 4 finish at 3-7, which is not all that unlikely, Bates and Bowdoin go through.

Trinity will have beaten both Amherst and Midd, so the first tiebreaker is h2h amongst the group. Trinity will be 2-0 and get the #3 seed I believe. Amherst is 1-1 so will get the #4 seed.

11
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 14, 2020, 10:09:40 pm »
Okay, I'm going to take a shot at some of the most likely scenarios... bear with me, there may be errors. I'm only doing the four scenarios which seem most likely. I didn't do any scenarios with Conn or Bates winning, although Bates is in if they beat Midd. I didn't include the Tufts-Williams game because that doesn't matter for seeding unless Amherst loses to Conn.

Scenario #1
Amherst beats Conn
Trinity beats Hamilton
Midd beats Bates
Wesleyan Beats Bowdoin

1. Tufts 2. Colby 3. Trinity 4. Amherst 5. Midd 6. Wiliams 7. Bowdoin 8. Bates

Scenario #2
Amherst beats Conn
Hamilton beats Trinity
Midd beats Bates
Wesleyan beats Bowdoin

1. Tufts 2. Colby 3. Amherst 4. Midd 5. Trinity 6. Williams 7. Hamilton 8. Wesleyan

Scenario #3

Amherst beats Conn
Trinity beats Hamilton
Midd beats Bates
Bowdoin beats Wesleyan

1. Tufts 2. Colby 3. Trinity 4. Amherst 5. Midd 6. Williams 7. Bowdoin 8. Bates

Scenario #4
Amherst beats Conn
Hamilton beats Trinity
Midd beats Bates
Bowdoin beats Wesleyan

1. Tufts 2. Colby. 3. Amherst 4. Midd 5. Trinity 6. Williams 7. Bowdoin 8. Hamilton
 

12
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 14, 2020, 09:13:34 pm »
Really impressive wins by Middlebury and Trinity tonight. Wouldn't have guessed a comfortable Midd win if you told me Jack Farrell scored just 6 points. But looks like he impacted the game in other ways and the rest of the Midd team played very well. Trinity diced up an Amherst defense that looked impenetrable last week at Colby. That loss probably eliminates Amherst from Pool C, or at least makes it very unlikely.

So the only seeds that are locked in right now are Tufts #1 and Colby #2. Williams is very likely for #6, but could move up if Amherst some how lost to Conn. Will leave all the tiebreaker scenarios to the smarter people. I'll be rooting for Trinity against Hamilton tomorrow though, as I'd love to avoid a 2/7 matchup with the Conts.

Will be going to the Williams-Tufts game tomorrow -- not a ton on the line for either team, but Karp vs. Rogers should be really fun. Both put up very nice numbers tonight, but Rogers was an ugly 1-9 from the stripe.

13
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 14, 2020, 08:50:52 pm »
Absolutely wild game in Waterville, as Colby prevails 85-82 on a Wallace Tucker three with 4 seconds to go. Crazy last minute of the game as Colby took a 4 point lead with 45 seconds to go on a Tucker three. Matt Hanna nearly steals the ball on the ensuing possession and Tucker fouls Antone Walker in the dive for the loose ball. Walker makes the first, misses the second which is rebounded by Wesleyan and kicked out for a three by Gabe Ravetz -- a 4 point possession to tie the game! Was shocked that Strahorn didn't bring in Dean Weiner to rebound on that free throw. Then Colby clears the floor for Tucker to isolate and he pulls up to nail the game winner. Tucker took over the last few minutes of the game for Colby.

Gritty effort by the Mules in the second half. There were a couple of other wild sequences in that second half including a steal followed by an and one for Matt Hanna. Will King was superb in the second half after a slow start finishing with 17 pts and 8 assists.

Colby launched 45 threes in the game, and looked in serious trouble at many points. Wesleyan's hot outside shooting dried up in the second half, but I was impressed by them overall. A lot of length and talent. Jordan James was excellent in the second half after a quiet first half. Certainly a game that could have gone either way.

With that win, I think Colby is in very good shape for a Pool C bid regardless of how they do in the conference tournament. Obviously, if they're looking to make a run in either the NESCAC or the NCAA tournament, they need Jefferson back.

14
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 14, 2020, 07:38:37 pm »
It's a good thing Colby is building a new athletic center because I'm pretty sure Sam Peek just burned this one down. 23% from deep heading into this game and 6-6 in the first half including one off the glass!

Fun first half, as Wesleyan leads by 6. Incredibly fast pace and both teams shooting well.

King and Weiner are back for the Mules, but the big news continues to be Sam Jefferson, who is on the bench in street clothes once again.


15
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: February 13, 2020, 11:54:40 am »
Kind of a pointless conversation, but I'll chime in. I played for Whitmore, and I can assure you that Strahorn is not in his league when it comes to getting on the refs. The Tufts game is Strahorn's only technical of the year (on an egregious missed call), and maybe one of 3 or 4 in his tenure at Colby. Whitmore averaged at least 2-3 per year in my time there, and based on what I've heard that was down a lot from the '90s.

I have plenty of great sideline Whitmore stories. Great coach, great person, wouldn't say he was always "totally in control" on the sidelines. And interestingly, both Whitmore and Strahorn are extremely laid back guys off the court.

I'd still put Cosgrove at Trinity at the top of the list in the league currently, although he's mellowed a lot from his first few years.

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