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Messages - jknezek

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1
Men's soccer / Re: NCAA South Atlantic Region
« on: Yesterday at 04:23:00 pm »
Wow! Compare that to NSCAA:

1.     Christopher Newport University
2   Salisbury University
3   Roanoke College
4   Emory University
5   Montclair State University
6   Rutgers University-Newark
7   Birmingham-Southern College

What's used for NCAA tournament seeding, hosting, etc.?

The Regional Rankings are used. All other polls are just for fun...

2
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 02:37:08 pm »
Thank you, narch, for looking up the actual numbers.  +1  You are the best non-QB poster in d3 who actually looks up the stats.

I do concede opening with Greensboro at home in 2014 is not the same as opening at Wabash, but MU and CNU appear to fairly evenly matched as evidenced by their classic OT game.   And CCA ... I'm confident several QB/WR tandems could score big stats against the Bears.

With all this said, the proof is on the field head-to-head ... and the sad truth is HSC has beaten my alma mater 14 years in a row.  HSC is the better team until someone else proves they can match up and play.
I think it's laughable that someone must have taken offense to this.  I don't think I could have been more fair and balanced.  Nance is great ... I've seen him play, but is he the best?  Others with a broader knowledge of D3 than me seem to think not.

Someone dinged you for that? That's hilarious. I think discussions about Nance over the last 18+ months have driven more negatives for me than anything else. Amusing how protective people get. And I really haven't seen anyone say anything but good things, but for some people there simply aren't enough platitudes you can give him...

Either way, here's a +K for you Hasa...

3
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2014
« on: Yesterday at 10:27:00 am »
Mark Emmert visited UChicago yesterday when he was in town. I should have asked him when I met him. Maybe he would have known the status of the MASCAC.

I would be interested if he knew what the MASCAC was without prompting...

4
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 08:46:21 am »
Sorry narch didn't mean to hurt your feelings about your QB. I never meant to slight Reber I just stated my opinion.  I'm sure all the coaches in the ODAC know how good Nance makes HSC . You seem to be consumed with stats and that is a good indicator but too many variables are in stats only to say whose better. A lot of the D3 offenses post crazy offensive stats but Favret seems to be protective of Nance until the Conference heats up.   I've seen a lot of D3 QB's and personally I think Nance is a notch above. You rarely see  his size , strength , speed , arm strength and most importantly Wins in a D3 QB. Certainly no disrespect to Reber. IMO if Nance were playing for Mt Union Burke would be his backup. But , ...... we will never know.
[/b]

This is what happens when you drink and post. Don't let it happen to you! ;D


+K. hilarious

5
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2014, 10:13:40 pm »
IMO if Nance were playing for Mt Union Burke would be his backup. But , ...... we will never know.

Bold. Very bold. Considering Burke was the First Team AA last year and preseason first team AA and he is killing the OAC and living up to the hype this year, that is a bold, bold statement.

6
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2014, 04:03:54 pm »
I think it's important to use total offense rather than passing yards when looking at a quarterback's numbers.

Maybe, but I'm not a big fan. I prefer to look at passing and rushing yards by the QB. I understand the argument for total offense, but I've never really thought of it as the primary stat for comparing QBs. For comparing offenses? Absolutely, but QBs are trickier as is any single player stats in a team game.

If I was really being picky I'd say when comparing QBs I prefer yards per attempt for both passing and rushing. And when I occasionally play fantasy football I look for passing stats like yards before first contact and, although rarely useful at the pro level, rushing stats like yards after first contact for a QB. But that is really getting feisty and rarely available at the D3 level.

Lots of ways to dice the numbers. Any way I've looked at them, Nance comes out looking very, very good. But not significantly better than the other top echelon D3 QBs. Of course being in that top echelon is ridiculously good to begin with.

7
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2014, 03:01:15 pm »
I will be interested to see if Nance comes up in the Gagliardi talk, or where he falls in All-America status at the end of the season. While the Gagliardi isn't exactly purely performance based, if you are the best QB in the country, or close to it, you are going to be seriously considered. Same thing with the All-America teams.

We can only play the teams in front of us, and the ODAC just doesn't have that top tier rep. So Nance's big chance to make a national splash came week 1. 24-37, 247 yards, 2 tds, 2 ints, -40 yards rushing (yeah, the sacks were UGLY) was pretty good, but it just isn't going to make anyone's jaw drop. On the other hand, it's the best anyone has done, BY FAR, against Wabash so far this season. Week 2 would also be a good OOC test, and 23-31, 204 yards, 4 tds, 1 int, 60 yards rushing looks efficient but also not jaw dropping. Also 3 teams already this season dropped more points on CNU than HSC did. Not all of that is Nance's responsibility of course.

Bottom line? Nance is good. I think he's best in the conference followed by Pawlowski, whose numbers are aided by a significantly softer OOC schedule than the Tigers. But I wouldn't crown him the best in D3. He might be the best in the South, but even there I see some significant competition. I expect him to make an All America team. I very much doubt it will be first team national All American.

8
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 03:47:58 pm »
GC2005

Best of luck and congrats !!!

I've missed one HSC game since my son has been playing and that was due to a family wedding, so I understand but don't understand why a football fan would plan an October wedding !!!!

I was a groomsman in a family wedding this weekend. I compromised with my wife. She could have my phone during the ceremony so I wasn't tempted to sneak peeks, but I got to have it during the reception. I also agreed to do all the dancing she wanted (less gimmicky and irritating things like the macarena) so long as after the wedding was over my brother in law and I could find a bar to watch football until midnight.

I won't say it was a good compromise, but since we were both marginally unhappy I think it was as good as we were going to get. Weddings during football season are not good...

9
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 02:48:32 pm »
Last year GC was 4-0 in the ODAC with 3 games to play. They lost 2 of those games. Point is at 3-0 HSC has only locked up a .500 season. Their are a lot of games to be played.

  Not to be picky, but at 3-0 HSC has only locked up a 3 win season. They could still lose their last four games and finish 3-4, although I very strongly doubt that would happen.

We're all having fun with the nitpicking lately. CUA and CAU, CMR's math (yep, that was me with an assist from Hasa), and now HSCTiger's math. It's all in good fun...

10
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 09:35:57 am »
Nice to see the Generals get a win. Wish I could have seen the game, but I was stuck at a wedding. I thought the team might be maturing, and I think they will be competitive with everyone going forward. We will see. At Bridgewater isn't a good omen. Always a bad place for W&L.
Bridgewater is a good team ... not great ... but very solid.  Even at 4-2 (1-2), I will not be surpised if they still go 4-3 in the ODAC.

Going 4-3 in the ODAC?  Who are they playing in the seventh game?   ;)

Well, Bridgewater's seventh conference game is Catholic the last week of the season. Are they not going to play one? The ODAC has 8 football members and a seven game conference season since Shenandoah joined.

11
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 09:33:37 am »
Nice to see the Generals get a win. Wish I could have seen the game, but I was stuck at a wedding. I thought the team might be maturing, and I think they will be competitive with everyone going forward. We will see. At Bridgewater isn't a good omen. Always a bad place for W&L.
Bridgewater is a good team ... not great ... but very solid.  Even at 4-2 (1-2), I will not be surpised if they still go 4-3 in the ODAC.

At this point I don't see much difference between Bridgewater, RMC, E&H and Shenandoah. Home team wins. Guilford might have fallen back into that grouping. W&L might be climbing into that grouping, but I'm not convinced of either yet. Catholic looks like the real straggler and HSC is probably the clearest favorite we've seen in the ODAC in a fair few years.

My big surprise so far this season is Guilford not being as strong as I thought. Yeah, only 1 loss and playing hard, but just not as convincing as I thought in a couple wins and certainly surprised by the loss. E&H is also a bit better than I thought they'd be, but other than that 14-13 win over Maryville I don't see much that makes me really think they are a player. The Wasps only have a road trip to Lexington left, so they look favorable for second place. I suppose that would be a surprise in Coach Newsome's first year.

12
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 08:52:24 am »
Nice to see the Generals get a win. Wish I could have seen the game, but I was stuck at a wedding. I thought the team might be maturing, and I think they will be competitive with everyone going forward. We will see. At Bridgewater isn't a good omen. Always a bad place for W&L.

13
East Region football / Re: Empire 8
« on: October 15, 2014, 11:26:23 am »
I think Fisher ... [will sneak out] a Pool C bid, resulting in them being overlooked and winning two playoff games.

I agree with everything you said except this. Given Fisher's recent success, there is no team in the country that would overlook a 9-1 SJF team, regardless of whether or not they are in as a Pool C team. I still think they will win at least one game as a Pool C , but not because they were overlooked.

If things shake out this way, it would be a totally different playoff entrance for Fisher than the previous 2 trips. In each of the last two trips to the NCAA for Fisher they snuck in with 2 losses and had to go on the road and 'upset' higher seeds (JCU and Hobart last year, Johns Hopkins and Del Val a few years back).

If Fisher gets a pool C with a 9-1 record and their only loss coming in overtime to a Salisbury team that is 8-2, the E8 AQ, and only has losses to Wesley and a 2 loss Buff State team, I would guess Fisher would be a much higher seed and may get a home game or two. That resume would look much more like the 2006 version of Fisher that was 9-1 with its only loss coming to a really good option team in the middle of the season. That year I think Fisher was a 2 seed, and played home against Union, at Springfield, and home against Rowan before facing UMU.

Playing lower seeds at home would contribute more to wins in the tournament than any overlooking by others.

What are the chances that the E8 would get three teams?

almost 0

14
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 15, 2014, 11:05:38 am »
So if your predictions hold true RMC, W&L, BC are basically eliminated unless what happened in 2008 playes out again.
It appears playoffs begin in week 7. Any team losing going forward will be at peril of missing the playoffs. Still lots of football to be played and I see all kinds of possible outcomes. The team that approaches each game with the "one play at a time" mentality and avoids turnovers will find themselves in the drivers seat. As always, odac is in yet another fist fight.

I don't much worry about it. The ODAC winner will be the ODAC winner at the end. Who is in and out as of week 3 doesn't really interest me. I don't expect W&L or BC to be contenders, and RMC certainly hasn't convinced me they will be there yet.

15
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 15, 2014, 09:55:42 am »
Let's start with the less important games. I think W&L has a chance to pick up their first win of the season. At home, against an unconvincing RMC team. The Generals seem to be starting to gel on offense, but they have to do better on defense. I don't think RMC is as powerful offensively as Guilford or HSC, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Generals win this by a couple so long as they can hold RMC under 30 points. Again, the Generals have to get out front. It hasn't really happened this season, so the key will be a good start.

Shenandoah at Catholic. Catholic isn't good. Shenandoah is better. Coming off the big win, I expect Shenandoah to get their first ODAC two game winning streak. It's Shenandoah's shortest road trip and I expect them to come through. Shenandoah by 10.

Guilford gets Bridgewater at home. This should be a good chance for Guilford to bounce back. One thing we all missed last week was Shenandoah was the first away game for the Quakers and they did not respond well. They played SVa in a neutral site and labored heavily, so the warning signs were there that the Quakers could have some road jitters they still need to work on. Bridgewater at home should be more like business as usual as I don't think Bridgewater, despite the easy h2h comparison with Shenandoah, is good enough to stop the Quakers. Guilford by 14.

HSC hosting E&H. You'd think this game would be more interesting if it was at E&H, but the Wasps have 4 of their 5 wins coming on the road so far. Only RMC has visited Selfe so far this season. Despite that, I think E&H is in trouble. HSC's offense is just better than anyone else they have faced. This ODAC season is in HSC's hands. If they beat themselves, then they deserve to lose. But no one has more talent or ability than HSC. I expect a good game, but HSC will be the first team to hang 30+ on the Wasps and win by 10.

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