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Messages - jknezek

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1
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2014
« on: Yesterday at 04:29:16 pm »


Trust us, non-East guys, we get it. There's a reason we all groan at Hobart's unwillingness to schedule a quality team OOC and Fisher's inability to figure out how a ****ing triple option works.

+K. That got a chuckle out of me

2
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2014
« on: Yesterday at 04:04:13 pm »
An East team will earn a #1 seed when an East team is considered one of the top 4 teams in the country. Until then, it won't, and shouldn't, happen. It's pretty simple.

I don't disagree, and neither do a lot of East posters. And I wouldn't consider an unbeaten Hobart to even be in that discussion. In fact, I wouldn't have even considered a 10-0 Fisher to automatically be in the discussion, considering I wrote several posts on the E8 about what the teams on Fisher's schedule would need to do to help them earn that recognition if they did go 10-0.

That said, if people are going to write "That would be a good first step" posts about East teams, they could at least take them time to get their facts straight. It's one thing to be patronizing, but lecturing a region to do something they've already done—twice—is pretty insulting

True. And we were in agreement on the E8ish pages if I recall.

3
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2014
« on: Yesterday at 03:23:19 pm »
An East team will earn a #1 seed when an East team is considered one of the top 4 teams in the country. Until then, it won't, and shouldn't, happen. It's pretty simple.

4
I looked at CoF's schedule. They didn't score in any of the first 3 games against real college programs. The did beat UNC 35-10, which seems really impressive until your common sense sets in and you realize it was UNC's club football team. I wasn't able to get any info about the NGSA game, but you can probably get a feel for NGSA by asking a Methodist guy. Apparently NGSA played Methodists' JV team earlier in the fall and then were beaten by Point University 48-0. Then CoF went right back to getting stoned by Clarke-Atlanta. Finally, no info that I found on the OC Tech game.

Suffice to say, CoF isn't a good team. That won't be a game. It should just be a glorified scrimmage with a mercy rule...

5
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 02:16:05 pm »
consequences of opposing players/teams placing a bounty on certain players via social media ?

I don't know, but they should be massive...

I'll just leave this here: https://twitter.com/ThePayneTrain99/status/524681972854304769 no actual bounty or anything, but this kid needs to be shut the hell up. Although I have my reservations about the physicality of HSC's O-line, someone needs to step up and make this guy eat his words

Maybe something was taken down but I don't see much here. Just a single ill-advised post. It IS the d-line's job to sack the qb. Now if there really was talk about a bounty or injuring someone, that would be upsetting. But I don't really see any of that in the one post that is up there. This is just putting a marker on your own back. Not real smart, but not real bad either in my opinion. Of course if I was a coach and it was one of my guys, I'd be irritated.

6
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 01:15:31 pm »
consequences of opposing players/teams placing a bounty on certain players via social media ?

I don't know, but they should be massive...

7
Given the current landscape of division III football in the south, without traveling to Chicago, California, Oregon, Delaware, etc. is there really any chance of them ever making that jump from ranked 20 - 30 to 12 - 20 without playing UMHB tight and/or winning?

The answer is yes. The solution is making the playoffs. If TLU hadn't gotten shellacked by a mediocre at best HSU team last year they would have had a chance to prove they belong. An undefeated TLU probably earns a "B" last year. But they didn't. So the reason they haven't had top tier competition is because they didn't play any last year. That is a function of not playing UMHB and a truly bad loss costing them the chance to really prove themselves. This year they have the chance to rectify those problems. It will be interesting to see if they take it. Don't get creamed Saturday and win out and there is probably a decent chance of getting that second B. U of Chicago and possibly the MASCAC champion are the main competition for it. MASCAC depending on their A/B status. U of Chicago lost by 31 to a very good Bethel team. Do better than that against UMHB and TLU might be in the running.

8
I am not looking forward to either VUL or CoF games.  They will be torrid affairs and will do Wesley no favors in keeping the players sharp for the end of the season Charlotte game as well as the playoffs.  It is games like these that I thank the stars for the NJAC!!!  I hope Coach Drass can keep the players focused until then......  That said, Wesley has had poor competition in the past and it didn't seem to have a big impact on key games.

-Ski

Best to think of it as a way to get some experience for the younger guys. Or more experience anyway. Probably got some at Menlo as well. The CoF game is going to be really, really bad.

9
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 10:17:19 am »
Wabash was #3 in week 10 of 2008. Which was silly. They lost the next week.

One of those "duh" things that I didn't really think of til I looked at a few of those rankings is how much the season-before results are going to dictate that season's rankings.  A team that had a good playoff run in year X is going to start ranked pretty high in X + 1 and will keep floating upwards if they keep winning the following year (regardless of the real quality of that season's results), because of some of the dumb rankings bias that we've been kicking around for a few months now on various message boards.  People just won't drop someone until they lose because they're anchored to the preseason expectations for each team.

Oh god. Why did you open that can of worms again? I'm going to give you the same advice I give my daughter, you keep picking at this scab it's going to scar!  ;D

10
I agree completely. If I was a UMHB fan I wouldn't have posted it. Wouldn't want to jinx it. But... for those of us without a dog in the fight inside 20 points will be surprising. Of course we've all been surprised before.

And I'm not implying that TLU at essentially 26 is over-rated. I think they are about where they should be. They are doing good things and playing good football. But those of us who have been around D3 and the boards for a while know the score when it comes to the elite teams and everyone else.

UWW has lost 4 regular season games in 10 seasons. UMU has lost 0 regular season games in 10 seasons. UMHB has lost 6 regular season games in 10 seasons, none since 2009. Linfield has lost 1 regular season game since the 2008 season. Wesley has lost 6 regular season games in 9 seasons.

It is a very rare event for these teams to lose in the regular season. TLU fans have reason to be excited, but the rest of us have reasons to be very, very skeptical.

FYI -- I think UMHB has had 3 games in the last 3 regular seasons inside 14 points. None so far this year, an 11 point win over LC in 2013, a 7 point win over Wesley and a 13 point win over HSU in 2012. Yeah, only one single possession regular season game in 2.5 regular seasons. Will TLU add to that? We will see.

11
On the flip side of the coin, however, here we are talking about TLU having a legitimate chance of competing with and/or defeating UMHB.  If this truly is the sentiment, how do you justify TLU's lack of ranking nationally? 

Obviously a win changes everything immediately.  But what if TLU competed and lost by, say 14, would that actually increase perception of their ranking in voters' minds?


I don't think there are too many neutral observers who think TLU stands very much of a chance. Within 14? Maybe. The game is at home and if UMHB is up by 17 or 21 in the fourth I could see backups getting scored on late. But I don't think too many people not associated with either program would take TLU with UMHB giving 14.

Could we all be surprised? Of course. But TLU really hasn't done anything to make people believe they can compete at that level. TLU hasn't faced a real playoff caliber team over their run. They won some close games against some mediocre teams in 2013, Trinity (5-5) by 4, MC (4-6) by 3, and got creamed by HSU (4-6) by 29. They did beat 7-3 LC by a couple, and that is where TLU is hanging their hat. This year TLU is looking better, only ETBU (3-3) and LC (2-4 on a BRUTAL schedule) have come within a TD, but there still isn't much of a signature win.

So lets look at the other teams in the bottom of the Top 25. Most have 1 loss, so it looks like TLU should be ahead. But Chapman lost to an elite Linfield by 7, H-SC lost to a top 10 Wabash by 13, Del Val is undefeated with wins over Lycoming and Montclair State (both 5-1), St. Thomas lost to ranked St. Johns by 10, St. Johns lost to ranked Concordia-Moorhead by 9, Concordia-Moorhead lost to top 11 Bethel by 10, and UW-SP who lost to ranked UW-P beat ranked NCC by 7.

If you take off your TLU blinders, TLU doesn't have anything to justify moving over teams that have all played someone important, and either won or played them tough. Now at some point the MIAC trio will bathe each other in blood and so will the UWW trio. That may open up room for TLU, if they play UMHB well and win the games they are supposed to win. Or any of the other close to the bottom teams could lose, opening up space for essentially number 26 TLU. But there just isn't a reason right now to move TLU into that grouping, and certainly not into the SJF, Witt, Bethel, Wabash, JHU, Hobart tier.

TLU has won 15 of 16? SJF ran to the final 8 last year. Witt is 25-5 in the last 3 years. Of those 5 loses, 2 are to D1 Butler, 2 are playoff loses, and one was to a ranked Wabash team. Bethel is 26-5. Of those loses, 2 are playoff loses, one was to national runner-up St. Thomas in conference, one was to a 7-3 St. Olaf team, and one is to the currently ranked Wartburg team. Wabash is 23-3. Two of those loses aren't great, one was to playoff team Witt last year. This year they own a win over currently ranked H-SC. Over the last four seasons, JHU is 36-4. 3 of those loses came in the playoffs, one to a 7-4 F&M team. Hobart over the last 3 seasons is 28-2. Both loses came in the playoffs.

What's the point of all this data? 16-1 with no playoff caliber teams on the schedule is not going to get you up a few tiers. There are a bunch of teams that have similar outcomes including playoff caliber teams.

TLU is doing well. They have come a long way from the 2007-2012 teams that couldn't break .500. But the proof is in winning big games, something TLU over the last season and a half hasn't played. This weekend is a big game for TLU. Give UMHB a good run for their money and you'll enter the Top 25 eventually (if the Bulldogs keep winning). Get blown out and you still have nothing to hang your hat on.

12
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 09:39:31 pm »
making my annual trip to Bridgewater this weekend for their homecoming.  I get to see W&L for the first time.  I think it will be a good game as W&L looks to be improving each week and Bridgewater has played pretty well so far.  Always enjoy the trip as the area is very nice and my friends at Bridgewater are even better.  The weather should be nice too.

Not really the year I want you seeing my Generals, but such is life. They are improving, but they have been really bad on the road. Hopefully last week gave them a little confidence to see out the season. Keep the word "young" in the back of your head while you watch!

JK, the game is an afterthought for the trip.  Friendship is the top priority.  I will keep in mind that they are young, but will let you know what I see that I like and dont like compared to the national scene (Wesley).  I have always enjoyed the odac games I have seen and this is my first view of W&L.

I know that feeling. We tend to go to a game or two at Birmingham Southern every year. Don't really care about the game, especially last year when Wesley ended it in the first quarter, but it's just a great place to tailgate with the family. I also try and get down to Huntingdon for a big game every year, although haven't made it yet in 2014.

Neither of these teams is likely to compare to the national scene at this time. I do have a lot of hope for the Generals based on their youth and potential to compete in the ODAC in the next couple years, but they aren't going to be national competitors. I don't know Bridgewater anywhere near as well but I suspect they are in much the same boat.

Enjoy the game. I think it will be competitive and entertaining regardless of the lack of ODAC impact.

13
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 04:01:21 pm »
JK,

Either you've had history writing about sports (W&L newspaper, maybe?) or it's just the W&L ejukashun, but I've enjoyed your predictions over the past couple of years.  Thanks for the thoughts.

Well I'm glad you appreciate them. It was a long time ago now but I was sports editor for an on campus paper, got a degree in print journalism, and spent some summers as a reporting intern. None of that is useful in my current career.

14
South Region football / Re: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 03:25:43 pm »
Took a skim through the pick'em boards and didn't see anyone taking TLU. Not the most scientific, but it gives you an idea of how big an upset it would be. Then again, that goes for any of the big 5 teams during the regular season (UWW, UMU, UMHB, Wesley and Linfield). NCC loses a bit more in the regular season, and Wesley every now and then, but the other 3... well... it's a rare, rare event.

15
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: October 23, 2014, 01:52:01 pm »
+k.  Well researched. Well written. Interesting. Outstanding post. I have no connection to Messiah, Navy and only a limited interest in D3 soccer, but I thoroughly enjoyed that post.

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