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Messages - jknezek

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1
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: Yesterday at 09:10:46 am »
That was a tale of two halves last night.  Just some random thoughts, Graham Zusi continues to impress and is executing well from is midfield position.  Altidore is in top form...finally.  The commentators didn't say much, but Mike Bradley was solid.  I haven't been a fan of his, but thought he looked very good last night.  Finally, what do you do with Jermaine Jones?  He is a maddening player to watch- one moment he is brilliant and the next moment he is brilliantly bad. 
Second half US squad played with pace and executed well.  Klinsmann had them playing up top with high pressure and a quick tempo...I liked it.
Its worth noting that in the first half the U.S. looked lethargic and tentative.  It might have been the heat or lack of confidence.  In any event,  the second half was much better.

It was an interesting game and you've got some great points. Zusi does look good, though his delivery last night was not as good as it has been. Some of the corner kicks, especially, looked off. But I'd say that for the whole team. Not sure if it really was a case of having a problem trying to unlock a team with 10 behind the ball, but I saw more "junk" from the U.S. than I had seen in a while. Too many backheels to no one, dummies that didn't find a tuck in runner, and there was a stretch from the mid first half to a few minutes into the second where I felt like I was watching England play a Route 1 game. Long balls up the middle that were easily choked out.

I've always been a Bradley fan, so I'm coming at this from the other side. The charges of nepotism were just junk when his dad was in charge, but he did need to mature and has done so. I think that frustrating 1/2 season at Villa was really good for him, and he has come into his own as the most indispensible player on the field for the Americans. Jones has had some great games, and some bad ones. Last night was one of the latter. I prefer Cameron in that role right now, but it is a trade off. With Jones on the field Bradley and Jones have a good understanding and split the defensive and offensive responsibilities, with Cameron on the field Bradley takes a more forward role and they become a bit more predictable. But Cameron seems more steady if not quite as athletic. In qualifying I think Cameron is a better asset. If you have to win on an explosive counter, Jones might be of better benefit. Although Cameron's long passes have been very, very good.

The player that really concerns me is Gomez. I know he is young, and inexperienced especially at this level, but he just seems to fall asleep every game. He needs to be able to concentrate for 90 minutes, and I still haven't seen that out of him except for the Mexico game. In these games where the U.S. is dominant, he seems to lapse out, and that is no good for a centre back. Bessler on the other hand, has been a revelation. I do worry about the outside backs as well. F. Johnson is wasted in that role, much better than E. Johnson as a winger and not as good a positional defender as Beasley, but Beasley is too small. And Evans... well, we'll see. I don't want to pass judgement on him since he has been in an unusual position and playing well, but he doesn't strike me as a natural in that position. Just a step slow and without the experience to make it up positionally. Dolo is too old for me to want to rely on him, though he has more than paid his dues in an American uniform.

13 points is great at this stage. Leading the group is great at this stage. The U.S. definitely looks good to qualify for Brazil without taking it to the nail-biting wire. The team looks to have much more cohesiveness and understanding of the roles Klinsmann wants them to play. I think a lot of that is the month long camp they have gotten out of this. Not playing in the Confed Cup is a real downer, as another week or two together would really help this team and it is clear we are not taking a first choice team into the Gold Cup.

On the other hand, I'm hoping the Gold Cup helps bring a bit more depth into the fullback and centre back positions. We could also use another striker or two, though Landon, Dempsey, E. Johnson can all fill that role. Terrance Boyd, as he showed with an amazingly bad decision against Germany, simply isn't tactically ready. 

2
South Region football / Re: Center of Attention
« on: June 18, 2013, 12:30:16 pm »
Josh Willis of McDowell County (NC) HS commits to Guilford:

http://www.hickoryrecord.com/mcdowell_news/sports/article_76902428-b9af-11e2-bc6c-0019bb30f31a.html?mode=image&photo=0

It always throws me off when they say signed...
I know.  There's still some confusion, even among sports reporters, about the nuances of DIII - especially at the small town paper/website level.  Anyway, he says he's going to be a Quaker.  :)

In theory I suppose someone in his family signed the first of many checks...

3
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: June 18, 2013, 11:40:03 am »
Big game tonight. Win gives the U.S. a very good shot at going to Brazil. Honduras is missing a lot of key parts and the game is in the U.S. This should be a good opportunity for the USMNT to get some payback for that first hex game.

U.S. will be missing DaMarcus Beasely but otherwise should be a complete team with Jones back from his concussion and Zusi cleared of his yellows. However, 9 other U.S. players are sitting on yellows, meaning if this game gets chippy the U.S. could be short-handed for the first game in September.

A win puts the U.S. in clear control of the group, but depending on the outcome of Costa Rica hosting Panama, the U.S. could be as much as 4 points ahead of the next team in the hex (Panama win or tie). A loss could put the U.S. team 1 point behind Costa Rica (Costa Rica win), who hosts the remaining game between the two teams. It doesn't seem like much, but there is a massive difference between winning and not winning this game.

Every team but Jamaica in the hex is pulling for Honduras tonight to muddy the waters. Five of the six teams still have a good chance at being in the top 3, let alone in the do or die 4th spot. Jamaica is not mathematically eliminated yet, but sitting on 2 points with 6 games played leaves them in very bad shape and hoping that Panama and Honduras lose so they are still within realistic striking distance of the 4th spot.

4
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 14, 2013, 08:51:03 am »
losing to BC is one thing; losing to CU is something VERY different and disappointing !!!! Lets hope those types of games are behind us and the W&L vs. HSC game features two undefeated teams, both ranked in top 15. I might be asking for too much, but what the heck !!!

I think you are asking a lot of the Generals this year. They have RMC on the road before getting to the Tigers and I think that will be one hurdle too many. Personally I'm hoping to sweep the OOC schedule, but I haven't looked at what F&M brings back. That could be W&L's first home loss in a long team if they bring back most of the team that was playing so well at the end of last season. We'll see.

5
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 13, 2013, 01:04:13 pm »
that is a very friendly way to say the Tigers stunk that particular day. It was so bad I left after three quarters and never saw the attempt at a comeback, too little too late, however.

Sounds like the same turd the Generals left at Bridgewater. It happens.

6
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: June 12, 2013, 08:45:29 am »
Final:  Costa Rica 0, Mexico 0.   (El Tri sees another opportunity to gain more than one point at home slip through the fingers).

More importantly the U.S. takes care of business at home beating Panama easily 2-0. Panama had a few opportunities down the U.S. right side early with Eddie Johnson and Evans struggling to find the defensive form Zusi shared with Evans, but overall the U.S. did real well until some late game lapses as Panama pushed everyone forward. A nice game for the U.S. where they could have gotten 2 or 3 more (hit the posts twice and the crossbar once), but 3 points puts the U.S. top of group. Certainly there is still a lot of room for defensive improvement, but offensively that was one of the more creative displays for 75 minutes I've seen out of a U.S. squad.

16 points usually assures qualification from the hex. The U.S. has 3 remaining home games, including one against bottom feeder Jamaica. While playing in Costa Rica and Panama won't be easy, both those games could yield points. The Mexico game could be way more interesting for El Tri than for the U.S. I still expect Mexico to get it in gear, they have too much talent vis a vis the competition, but the pressure mounts if they have a bad showing at the Confederations Cup. Chepo probably won't survive them not progressing past the group stage...

7
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 11, 2013, 11:16:48 am »
I'm pretty sure Guilford's OOC schedule the past few years has been dictated by lower travel costs and rivalries that are hard to change.   Let's face it, Greensboro is 5 miles away, Averett is right across the state line in Danville, Methodist is a couple of hours away in Fayetteville and trips to Buena Vista (SVU) did not require overnight stay.  Besides, during the last decade, Guilford was looking for a chance to win, not a decimation by a top team. :)

With that said, I have heard some rumblings of another opponent in the AU slot after this season.

Hasa -- I did note that those were Guilford's traditional opponents. Sometimes you are at the mercy of those traditions. W&L certainly is, but it's been working out better recently. All that being said, traditional or not, those are some unimpressive opponents and it's hard to group them anywhere but where I did. It would be nice if they replaced AU with someone not from the USASC, but that's just my preference. With some new teams coming into the SAA from the deep south, perhaps there will be more openings for the southern ODAC members.

Sadly I won't get to a W&L game live this year so I'm thinking of adopting Huntingdon or BSC as my secondary team. BSC has a ludicrous schedule, I think they play 3 or 4 first year teams, so I'm leaning toward Huntingdon.  I think Huntingdon is going to slaughter the USASC, though I notice that conference was careful not to set up a CNU vs Huntingdon game this year. I can only think that is a blatent attempt to get 2 teams into the playoffs. But Hungtingdon vs La Col could be a great game to go see!

8
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: June 08, 2013, 05:55:43 pm »
Reading the post-game commentary, sounds like USMNT's recurring problem is putting opponents away.  They take the lead and can't hold it.  If they are going to play a more open game, they probably need to upgrade the back line.

JKnezek, any thoughts on Donovan's exile from/return to the team?  Graham Zusi may have been the man of the match last night and he plays the same spot at Donovan.  Do you move Donovan to the other side and would he be willing to go there?  Back when LD took his brief turn in the Bundesliga, Kinsmann was a big supporter, but now its an icy relationship.  Do you see a spot for "America's Greatest Player"?

Couple of points here. The problem is scoring. Every team will tell you they would like more. We had a few more chances last night to score, but it's not like we had 10 good opportunities and got two. We had maybe 5 or 6 and got 2, which isn't great but it's something Mexico would kill for right now!

As for problems with the back line there are really two solutions. As you suggest, better players would help, but really some experience would help. Our back line last night was Gonzalez (under 10 caps), Besler (under 8 caps), Beasley (well capped but under 10 caps in a wing back role), and Brad Evans (under 10 caps and only 2 or 3 on the back line). In front of them we had the well capped Bradley and Jones, and they were both stellar, until Jones went down and in came Cameron, who is on his 14th cap. So really, we have a good young back line, but it is very inexperienced especially with each other. So we may have the players and we're just short of teamwork.

The other problem is we're just not real good at the possession game that Klinsmann wants to play. We aren't bad at it, considering it's relatively new for a U.S. style, but we had only 57% of the possession. A good possession game will have 60+. There were whole 10 and 15 minute stretches where Jamaica had 75% of the possession, and that just isn't what we are trying to make happen. So the guys are playing forward, they are pressing, they are moving forward in possession, but if they give it away it leaves the back line exposed and we give up goals. The foul that led to Jamaica's goal last night was a prime example of this. Doing better on the set piece, of course, would have solved the problem as well. Having 5 plus the goalie behind the ball is different from the 8-9 plus the goalie we have typically played. So our defense may actually be better (not sure that is true, but it's hard to tell across the philosophies), but they are under so much more pressure that we are leaking goals.

Now, on to Donovan. His exile will end at the Gold Cup if he wants it to end. Klinsmann has preached that you have to be playing, you have to be playing to your ability, and you have to be challenging yourself in your league. Taking time off from MLS meets none of those criteria and it really irritated Klinnsman. But Donovan is a veteran playmaker who is still very talented compared to our player pool. He'll be back in some role, but it will interesting where. I see him and Dempsey playing underneath Altidore with F. Johnson, Zusi, Bradley and Jones filling in behind somehow. Just remember, Zusi is out for the next game due to yellow card accumulation and I'm sure Klinnsman wishes he had Donovan available to fill in. Our pool isn't deep enough to ignore Donovan, though I think his days as an automatic starter are coming to a close. He will be around for a while as an option to spell or rotate some of the other playmakers, something that the U.S. has not had a deep enough pool to do in the past.

9
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: June 07, 2013, 11:40:00 pm »
U.S. beats Jamaica 2-1. That's 4pts from 3 road qualifiers. Only Costa Rica and Panama to go on the road. Not bad, not great. Game had some moments, but the inability to keep a clean sheet is going to hurt at some point. The two goals late, one by both teams, made it more interesting than it needed to be. Losing Jones to a concussion could be a problem, losing Zusi to yellow accumulation is a problem for the home game against Panama.

Panama and Honduras at home coming up before the long break to September (as far as qualifiers, there is the endless joy of a meaningless Gold Cup in July, at which we should be heavily favored since Mexico will send a B team while the A team comes off the Confederations Cup). Anyway, picking up 6 home points in the next 2 qualifiers should be expected and, more importantly, put us in decent qualifying shape. 

Remember top 3 automatically go through and number 4 gets New Zealand in a home and home winner qualifies. Jamaica is on early life support, so that just means one more to fall down the ladder and the remaining 4 can fight for who doesn't have to play the life and death matches with Oceania's chip-on-the-shoulder champion.

10
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 07, 2013, 02:02:12 pm »
JK

We'll have to agree to disagree on the OOC deal, give me one really good OOC game and than bring on the ODAC.
As I said, will not happen for several reasons.

Fair enough. The ODAC is pretty much tapped out in terms of members for most sports. Football is a bit low, but I think you'll only see another football member added if Catholic leaves for some reason.

11
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 06, 2013, 06:24:42 pm »
I have no desire to see a 10 team league and 1 OOC. Having a variety of OOC games gives your team and your league a chance to ramp up to conference play, a good idea of how good you are outside your league, and a better chance of being correctly seeded come playoff time. It also lets you look at other game plans that you may not see in your league but might want to borrow. Plus playing games that spread out your footprint are a good way of expanding your recruiting areas and allowing potential recruits and player families to come see a game every few years. Personally I think it's one of the downfalls of scheduling 3 VA OOC games, or 3 USASC games, is that you limit the potential benefits of OOC competition.

When W&L plays Sewanee just about every player parent from the deep South comes and has a big tailgate and forms a close bond. The same happens in reverse when W&L plays in PA. Those northeastern parents get a chance to come and see. We don't draw as well from West of VA, but the few we get can come see the Generals play in Centre.

When done right, having a couple of OOC games is really beneficial. It can be a challenge to schedule, but there are plenty of 8 team leagues and tons of D3 schools within driving distance. Putting together a good OOC schedule shouldn't be hard for ODAC teams. Other conferences, those in the South and West, have my sympathy.


12
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: June 05, 2013, 09:54:21 am »
jknezek, great analysis. 

I had great hopes for Klinsmann, but now wonder if he is up to the task.  I've always thought Americans needed to open up and play more creatively with the ball, but it doesn't seem we have quite enough skill to do that yet.

As for Dempsey,  I hope the best for him.  He left Fulham to get on a Champion's League team, only to have the Spurs not qualify.  I am wondering if he might not have better success at Dortmund, where they don't have a bulging bank account and will be probably be without their star striker...I guess its all idle speculation at this point. 

Anyway,  thanks for the insights...

Don't write off Klinsmann. He is attempting to transform the team, and that is not a simple or quick process. I'm not sure it will be completed in his tenure, but I hope that even if he ends on a sour note, as I think is possible in Brazil, I hope the coach that follows will not revert to our previous philosophy. We have to keep moving forward, even if it is painful at times.

The other thing to remember is that Klinsmann is not a "tactical" coach. His run with Germany was propped up by the tactical genius of Joachim Low, the current German coach. Without Low Klinsmann had a very mediocre (at best) run as a club coach, from which he learned he needs tactical help. Klinsmann is a motivational coach, he deals with players needs and how to train and focus them, but he hasn't shown that he knows how to position them and get them to play team soccer specific to each opponent. Basically Klinsmann needs to have a strong tactical second and I'm not sure Martin Vasquez is good enough at the level we want to play.

If you look at the current players on the USMNT this is, by far, the most talented group we have ever seen. So either they are not gelling well together, or they are being asked to do something they aren't yet capable of doing, or they aren't being set up to succeed. I think it is somewhere between the three, but I do think they are too talented to go back to parking the bus. Klinsmann has the right idea, we are just missing a few pieces. Objectively, the team is probably somewhere between 20 and 40th best in the world. So we should play straight up against 10 through 50, dominate below that and bunker above it (obvious exceptions for road versus home, friendly versus important, etc). The key then becomes, "know how good your opponent is" so you know what style to play.

Here's hoping Klinsmann can figure it out


13
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: June 04, 2013, 04:11:47 pm »
Anyone have any thoughts on the sorry performance of USMNT in the friendly against Belgium in Cleveland the other night? 

Also, thoughts on where Dempsey will play in '14?  Sounds like Tottenham is looking to dump him.

The USMNT is suffering an ideology problem. The team has grown passed the stage where it needs to be a park the bus counter-attack team against anything but the best opponents. However, learning to be the full-time aggressor, while still playing good defense, is proving to be a problem. I still think the team lacks the creativity to create chances from a possession oriented run-of-play offense, so set pieces and breakawys are going to remain the bread and butter scoring ops for the team, regardless of what Coach Klinsman would prefer.

Sadly, our current coach doesn't seem capable of always distinguishing between when we need to play a defense oriented game against a superior opponent (he got it right versus Italy and in Mexico but wrong versus a superior Belgium and a road qualifier in Honduras) and when we can and should be able to go on the attack. He still wants to partially bunker in away Concacaf qualifiers while playing free at home. Against Germany's B team the U.S. could play even up or better than the opponent, same with Scotland last year. With Belgium's A team we couldn't play that style and he didn't recognize it and we got shelled.

When it comes to the upcoming qualifiers, we should be able to dominate. There isn't a team in Concacaf, except Mexico, that can match the U.S. talent. The lack of confidence we showed in Honduras was a problem, and the general poor play the last time in Jamaica can not be repeated. If the U.S. plays up to potential it should be able to go without losing through the rest of qualifying. I don't think it will happen, but it should. Mexico away was a lucky point, as we were thoroughly dominated, but I'll take it and expect it to happen to us going forward. Now lets move forward with confidence.

Hopefully some of the creative talent that is promised in F. Johnson, Boyd, Holden, Dempsey, Altidore, Bradley, Zusi and a few others can come to the forefront. More importantly, hopefully we can settle in a backline and give them some confidence and experience. Gonzalez, for all his mistakes in the last couple games, is still full of potential and just needs seasoning. To my surprise Evans played well at back as did Beasley and Besler was ok in the center. I think adding some seasoning with Goodson will help. I'd like to see Goodson paired with Gonzalez simply to help Gonzalez along. We will see who else steps up to the plate to settle that back line.

As for Dempsey, he doesn't match Tottenham's needs. It's not that he isn't good enough to play for Spurs in the role he was assigned, and he did play well even if he didn't score as much as hoped, but he isn't flashy enough for Spurs ambition. That is a team that wants to be top 3 or 4 in the EPL, and a "hardworking" player like Dempsey just isn't going to help them move the needle in a playmaking position. Plus, a "playmaking" American just isn't going to cut it with the top European fanbases. They need that position to generate revenue, tickets, shirts and goals, and Dempsey isn't going to do it.

14
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 04, 2013, 02:05:38 pm »
JK

I'm afraid I have agree with your post. I don't understand why HSC wants to spend the time and money to travel to the CGA, that said there are not many good D3 teams to schedule unless you want to travel. Salisbury use to fill that role but they did not renew the contract, Huntingdon is too far (trust me, I made that drive). JH would be a great team to play but I doubt they would schedule both RMC and HSC OOC.  I also wonder if schools are really looking for difficult OOC games given playoff implications.  If I were the AD I'd open with Mt. Union every year so I guess it's good I'm not the AD !!!!

Sometimes you just have to fill a hole. And for a one off it can be difficult. Alma came from Michigan to play W&L 2 years ago because they both had a hole. I'm assuming this is the same. HSC probably set up the Wabash deal but it couldn't start until 2014. So they had to take what they could find. Still, it's not good for HSC's ambition for this year. On the other hand it is only one year and the home/home with Wabash should be something special given the nature of those 2 schools. And yes, living in Birmingham I know how far it is to ODAC country. Not a lot of fun to make those drives so I rarely do. Thank goodness W&L comes to Sewanee every other year!

JHU actually can't schedule 2 OOC games. They are a 10 team conference so they only get 1 OOC. Makes getting on a good Centennial team's schedule pretty hard, which is why I'm thankful for F&M who is good more years than they are not. As for opening with UMU, it just depends on your ambition. Someone has to do it and I applaud those that do.

15
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: June 04, 2013, 01:24:34 pm »
I've said it before and I'll say it again. The ODAC OOC schedules for this year are... sad. I'm going to put these schedules into 3 tiers, although I'm not ranking inside of the tiers. Three teams have somewhat respectable schedules, with Shenandoah arguably being the most challenging, especially given the state of the Shenandoah program.

ODAC TOP TIER

Shenandoah was the worst team in the conference, but is looking respectable for their OOC schedule! Gallaudet is coming off a good year in the ECFC, 7-3, Ferrum went 7-3 in the USAC (can't get over that CNU hump!), and CNU.  Christopher Newport is coming off what might be a down year (6-5), until you realize they have been 6-5 or worse for 3 of the last 4 seasons. The class of the USAC isn't exactly a power program recently, although annual games against Salisbury and Wesley do provide some cover for those records. Not a "bad" team in the bunch, but they are missing a really strong team. Still, on paper, one of the better OOC schedules in the ODAC.

I actually think W&L is a decent OOC schedule this year with F&M coming off a good year, Center at least going above .500, and Sewanee showing some improvement (although dropping to 3-7 from 5-5 the previous year isn't great, at least they are better than the 2 or fewer wins they had from '06-'10). It doesn't look as good on paper versus Shenandoah, but F&M, Centre and Sewanee all play in what are considered tougher conferences than the ECFC and USAC.

Finally in the top tier you'd have to look at RMC who has a quality game against Johns Hopkins before facing a weak Averett squad (1-9 in USAC) and a lower tier PAC team in Bethany (3-7). Hey, at least there is one high quality opponent. In fact, for all intents and purposes, this might be the only ODAC OOC game against a top 25 team. Is it better to have one high quality opponent and two bad ones (RMC), or 2 mid-quality opponents and one bad one (W&L), or three teams that have good results but play in weaker leagues (Shenandoah)?

ODAC SECOND TIER

In the second tier you have to start with HSC, which is odd since the Tigers usually get at least one really good opponent per year recently. Instead this year they have the joy of facing Averett (along with half the ODAC seemingly), following up with the previously discussed CNU, and finally, what can only be described as a "filler" game with the Coast Guard Academy. CGA gets my admiration for what they do, but not really on the football field. Playing in the much maligned NEFC, they have one winning record since the good years of '06 and '07. Tiger fans should really be looking forward the Wabash games in the future, because this year is not up to recent standards.

The next team in the second tier is E&H. E&H picks up Ferrum, Maryville and Methodist. Three teams from the USAC, but all finished .500 or better. These teams aren't exactly powerhouses, but they have at least shown an ability to win consistently.

The final team in the second tier is Bridgewater. The Eagles open with a winless St. Vincent, a Greensboro team that went an improving 5-5 in the USAC, and Ferrum. Ferrum falls under CNU, and the other two opponents aren't going to put the fear into to many teams. But Ferrum and Greensboro are at least both above .500 possibilities for the year.

ODAC THIRD TIER

In the bottom tier we can start with Catholic who has two complete mellons on their schedule, winless McDaniel (Centennial) and winless (in the ECFC!) Anna Maria. But they also schedule Carnegie Mellon, a reputable program who started strong before falling to 6-5 last year. Of course, that is CMU's best record since 2007, but they are generally a .500 program recently that schedules tough. Does one mediocre opponent save this OOC schedule? Not really with two teams that went a combined 0-20 on the other side of the scale.

That just leaves Guilford who plays their traditional opponents. Greensboro, Methodist and Averett with 2 of 3 showing they can finish .500 in the USAC. Still, no CNU or Ferrum put this USAC heavy schedule below the other USAC OOC schedules found in the ODAC. While there may not be an 0 fer in this group, there also isn't much redeeming.


CONCLUSION

In the end, I give props to Shenandoah for scheduling up given their results, W&L's traditional opponents are on the upswing so that looks good if lucky, and RMC has the only stand out opponent. I have to think HSC and Bridgewater have scheduled under their ambitions for the year, Guilford as well if they are aiming to climb the ODAC ladder. Catholic and E&H should be able to maximize their games to go 4-2 or 5-1 combined to start the season, but I doubt it will do them any favors when they face the ODAC's best teams.

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