Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - jknezek

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 106
1
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Today at 04:23:10 pm »
Remove the best team from EVERY SINGLE conference (which includes Mount Union, Whitewater, UMHB, Linfield) and play the season, then we'll figure out who the power conferences would be.

So true.  What some forget is while Whitewater has been the gold standard in D3 is that before UWW when on their run starting in 2005, the WIAC struggled mightily in the playoffs.  Struggled badly. 

In fact if you take UWW's 37-3 (wow) playoff record out of the total the WIAC sits at 9-12 in the playoffs.  If UWW didn't figure out their formula I wonder what our perception of the WIAC would be today?

9-12 isn't really that bad in the AQ era. And again, in a bunch of those years you are dealing with a team that was blocked from a better seed by losing to Whitewater, so it's possible a few more wins after 2005 would have been added in. Certainly 2006, the year UWW wiped out their very good conference mate UW La Crosse, that La Crosse team might have won a game or two more. A lot of those first round losses came pre-2005. In fact, 4 first round losses came in 99-02, so in the last 10-12 years the WIAC non UWW has done pretty well. It's hard to say they aren't a power conference now, even if they weren't all that close until the early naughts.

2
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Today at 03:44:31 pm »
One of the places where this whole argument breaks down is when looking at the "second team" in each conference's playoff record. Those teams were seeded lower because they were the "second team" in many cases, creating a less desirable match up. The second team in the WIAC, OAC, NWC, ASC, MIAC and CCIW all would have better playoff records if the top team wasn't in the conference handing them a loss every year. So it's hard to say that those teams are 1-3 and compare OK to the ODAC champs 1-3 when the second teams probably would have had easier match ups in the first round, and theoretically better records, without the top team blocking them every year.

It's all academic, and you can argue until you keel over, but there are better and worse conferences in D3. How you define them is a similar argument to how inclusive you make "elite". Although I do find it interesting that HSCTigerFan wants a broader definition to include HSC's offense last year as "elite" but a narrower definition of the same term when it comes to conferences.  :)

I will say I agree there are only two truly elite conferences in D3, the WIAC and the MIAC, but much like I'm willing to say HSC's offense was very, very good but not elite I'm willing to include the NWC, ASC (most years. last year maybe not so much), CCIW, and OAC in the next tier. Then there is a very good listing, average, below average, and poor. Bell curves exist everywhere, and the elite happens only at the one tail and is a very small grouping...

3
North Region football / Re: Ohio Athletic Conference
« on: Today at 01:22:47 pm »
Exactly.    Unless the D-line gets MUCH better, it won't matter who's on offense.

Probably matter all the way up to the semis or finals. I know by UMU's lofty standards that's not much consolation, but for the rest of the D3 universe....

4
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Today at 08:23:02 am »
After reading the last couple of pages, I'm put in mind of Mark Twain's take on the subject.   ;)

To be fair Mark Twain never had to suffer through a very long D3 offseason!  ;D

5
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 09:56:04 pm »
Hey now, jk. Let's be fair. MC might have ranked 93rd in total defense last season, and the USAC might not be a power conference, but they did have some dang good offenses.

Total offense
1. Methodist
2. Huntingdon
38. LaGrange (LaGrange had number one passing offense)

OK, here's my question because, again, these stats don't exist in a vacuum. We know the USASC is a middle of the road conference, right? There just isn't much debate about that.

Actually --- middle of the road is a stretch. There is some debate as to whether they actually make it to middle of the road.


I'm willing to give the conference a couple steps up from two or three years ago. Maryville and Methodist are much improved, Huntingdon is no joke, and CNU might have taken a step or two back but they are a quality team as well. Lagrange isn't bad either. There isn't a power team so far, but the conference is better than I remember it ever being in the last 5 or so years. There are more than a few conferences I'd put behind the USASC at this point.

6
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 08:30:52 pm »
Hey now, jk. Let's be fair. MC might have ranked 93rd in total defense last season, and the USAC might not be a power conference, but they did have some dang good offenses.

Total offense
1. Methodist
2. Huntingdon
38. LaGrange (LaGrange had number one passing offense)

OK, here's my question because, again, these stats don't exist in a vacuum. We know the USASC is a middle of the road conference, right? There just isn't much debate about that. So what is more likely, 3 of the most potent offenses in the country exist in a single mediocre conference, or that mediocre conference has three pretty good offensive teams and a whole lot of bad defense? Because if the offenses for these three teams were really top tier for D3, why would these three teams have gone 4-4 in out of conference games?

Stats have to be thought about in their context, not just in their absolutes. That is extremely important when dealing with D3 with so little crossover. For example, W&L had the #2 rushing attack in the country. Pretty good right? Umm... not that great when you consider they never throw. Springfield had the #1 rushing attack. They must be a power right? We know rushing leads to opening up defenses right? Not really, they hardly ever throw either. That stat, like others that have been tossed around here, just aren't relevant without context.

As for HSC being an elite offense last year, it's just a stretch for me. You can be very good and not be elite, which HSC was. Against an elite defense that finally played the last 42 minutes of the Linfield game HSC literally went nowhere. It's right there in the game stats. That's not a knock on HSC being very good, but you can't go 42 minutes of a game against an elite team and get less than 100 yards and say you have an elite offense. It's just common sense. Was HSC good? Very good? Yes to both. Were they the top 2 or 3% offense in D3? The top 10 teams? No. Gaudy stats against mediocre competition doesn't confer elite status. Elite stats against very good and elite competition gives you elite status.

If you want to play with stats, HSC finished 31st in total offense. Very, very good. Top 10% of D3. Teams above them that played better competition consistently? Mount, Heidelberg, Morrisville St, Johns Hopkins, Wis-Platteville, North Central, Linfield, UMHB, Bethel, Hardin-Simmons, Gettysburg, ETBU, Augsburg, and John Carroll. All 14 of these teams played in a better conference and had more total offense. HSC finished 75th in 3rd down conversions. That's behind 3 teams in the ODAC alone. 39th in passing completions. Yeah, they throw a lot and they are good at it, but are they top 10 good? No. Did you know HSC tied for 216th for interceptions? They throw a lot, so in context it's understandable, but is it elite to finish that low in an offensive stat?

How about flat out passing offense? That's what the Tigers are known for so they must be top 10, right? No. They are an extremely good 18th, but not top 10. Teams like Wis-Platteville, John Carroll, Dubuque, and ETBU all ranked higher against consistently better competition.

What is the point of all this? Not much. HSC is incredibly good offensively. Are they elite? I think there is ample evidence to suggest they weren't one of the 10 best teams in the country last year. Will they be this year? Don't know, but they have an awfully good shot. At the end of the year we can revisit, but you have Tiger blinders on if you ignore the losses to CNU and Shenandoah and you don't realize what actually happened in the Linfield game. Does that take away from HSC's brilliant season and the huge win against Maryville? No. But it doesn't make them elite either unless you make elite large enough to be a distinction without meaning.

Elite teams are truly special across all of D3. I just don't believe HSC is there. Last year they were the best in the ODAC and got a very favorable match up for a 2 loss team. We probably aren't having this conversation if they travel to Hobart, Wesley, UMU, JHU, UMHB or any of the other places a 2 loss team from the ODAC has typically gone. A very good team and a dash of luck, it made for a great season.

7
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 04:27:33 pm »
We've discussed the Linfield game. HSC fans take full game stats view and that is what I would do as well if I was a Tigers fan. However, it's hard not to consider that game in two pieces. The first 18 minutes where Linfield laid a ridiculous egg and HSC took advantage, and the next 42 minutes where Linfield was in complete control and stoned HSC while orchestrating a large comeback. Yes, while Linfield looked like the Keystone Cops HSC racked up a lot of yards, but as soon as Linfield got their heads out of their rears, HSC went pretty much nowhere and scored no points.

If HSC was really that offensively talented, a purely D3 elite offensive team, they wouldn't have spent 2/3rds of the game without scoring a point. HSC's last 10 drives went for a total of 98 yards! They didn't average a first down! In the last 3 drives, when HSC needed something, anything, they went for a total of -5 yards. HSC was very, very good, but the fact remains that once Linfield decided they were going to play actual football, HSC never scored again and truly struggled to move the ball. You are hard pressed to say HSC looked like an elite offense against Linfield outside those first 18 minutes.

Maryville is a very good team. Playoff caliber certainly. But they ranked 93rd in total defense playing a mostly USASC schedule. A little better than mid-pack defense in a little worse than mid-pack conference. Sure HSC put 70 more yards on them then their season average, but HSC was also playing at home. It's not like the game was a huge statistical anomaly. Good D3 teams routinely put up 400 yards on opponents.

Again, HSC was very, very good. But were they elite in D3 on offense? Not in my mind.

8
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 03:31:01 pm »
No you didn't. I quoted you but the root goes back to BashGiant's post. No big deal. #1 in total defense definitely means a lot, regardless of opponent. To be fair, I wonder about HSC's offensive stats the same way I wonder about Wabash's defensive ones. In my opinion neither unit really proved itself elite versus the rare elite competition they faced last year. However, both units proved themselves very, very good versus their regular competition. It should be an interesting game. Still too far away for me to care too much about, especially since I don't really have a dog in the fight...

9
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 02:13:28 pm »
Bashgiant and Tigerfanalso

Wabash finished first in several defensive categories not just for Division 3, but all of NCAA football last season.

In the end stats are stats.  I know that we are all looking forward to September 6th and seeing Hampden Sydney in C'Ville.

As you said, stats are stats. Would Wabash's stats have been so good if they had played in the WIAC or are the dominant stats a function of playing who they played? The only playoff caliber team Wabash faced last year they gave up 35 points and over 400 yards of offense at home. That's pretty typical yardage for a match up between two good teams in D3, not really indicative of a team with a defense that would stand out at the top level of D3, as the absolute best defense in D3 should.

Now compare that to the team who really did have the best defense in D3 in my opinion, UWW. UWW played 5 playoff caliber teams, giving up 205 yards and 7 points to Washington U, 169 yards and 7 points to St. Norbert, 301 yards and 3 points to Franklin, 398 yards and 17 points to Linfield, 241 yards and 15 points to UMHB, and 338 yards and 14 points to UMU. Only once did UWW give up anything approaching the yardage that Wabash gave up to Witt, and that was to Linfield. Even then, they never conceded more than 1/2 as many points.

It's just common sense to understand that in the small schedule large universe of D3 football, the absolute "best in D3" stat is less than meaningful since there is so little crossover. Not saying Wabash doesn't have a strong defense, they do, but it's always important to keep these kinds of stats in perspective...

10
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:40:22 am »
So probably at least 1/3 of D3 80-90 teams, have had a season in the last 14 years that merited a Top 25 position toward the end of the year. That's better than I would have thought to be honest.

11
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:06:47 am »
Rather than looking for teams that made it ever year, I'd be more interested in all the teams that made the top 25 at least once in the last 5 polls of any given year. Those should be the best teams of each season, and I'm curious as to how many of the 300+ D3 teams rotate through that category. My thoughts are not many...

If you're talking about how many teams have been ranked in one of the last five polls of a season for each season since 2003, I think that list is UWW, UMU, UMHB.  Full stop.  And UWW just barely made the cut- ranked in the Week 8 poll in 2012 before falling out.  2004 got Wabash, 2005 got Wheaton, and 2008 got Linfield.

No, I'm not interested in teams that were in ALL of the last 5 polls of the years, I'm thinking for teams appearing in ANY of the last 5 polls of the year. In other words, how many teams total out of the D3 universe, at the end of any of the seasons, were considered a top 25 team. It is clearly a number larger than 25, but is it less than 75? I'm really curious over the last 14 years or so, how many teams total had a season that put them in consideration for the top 7.5% or so of D3.

We know at the very top end of D3 it is extremely top heavy and consistent, does the same hold down the chain to the next two tiers. And I'm interested in polls at the end of the season, rather than the beginning, because a lot of the early polls are reputation or previous year based. By the end of the year you are rewarding primarily those teams that have had a good singular season...

12
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 04:58:16 pm »
Rather than looking for teams that made it ever year, I'd be more interested in all the teams that made the top 25 at least once in the last 5 polls of any given year. Those should be the best teams of each season, and I'm curious as to how many of the 300+ D3 teams rotate through that category. My thoughts are not many...

13
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 01:00:09 pm »
We hit Cades Cove in the Smokies as well. Got an amazing picture of the meadow backed up by the mountains wreathed in "smoke" (rain clouds...). Had a blast. If you can't have fun with a family in Gatlinburg you should just give up. Didn't much enjoy going over 321N to Pigeon Forge in the motor home towing my car, one switchback had me a little unhappy, but live and learn. The Lost Sea was neat, not something I need to do again...

14
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 08:52:13 am »
Scots fans... passed through your campus on Wednesday on my way up to Gatlinburg. Family trip and we stopped off at The Lost Sea Adventure (I'm a sucker for 50s style roadside attractions!) and then the GPS took us up through Maryville. My wife got annoyed when I jumped off route to take a quick peak at the campus, but who knows when I'd get a chance again? Very nice campus from what I saw out the motor home windows.

15
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 08:48:00 am »
I think W&L might have made a 24 or 25 ranking at some point in the last couple years. Not 100% positive and don't care enough to check.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 106