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Messages - jknezek

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W&L's defense is good enough to stop an awful RMC offense.

I don't think RMC defense will stop W&L; but they will slow u down. This could be a 21 to 10 W&L victory

That's in line with my thoughts, but I think it will take 24 or 25 points. Helps the game is in Lexington.

If ever there was a chance ESPN's GameDay attends the Tommie/Johnnie rivalry, this would seem to be it.

Their aren't too many major college conference schedules released yet, but the SEC schedules are. The only decent game in the SEC for 9/23 is Arkansas-Texas A&M. The rest is pure garbage.  So that gives a small boost to the idea. Notre Dame does play at Michigan State that day, but given the seasons both are having that may not be GameDay worthy.

You can use this link to play around if you are interested in how looking at schedules to try and determine the low probability of it happening.

There is but only one truly PERFECT judgment call for AQ's in the instance of a tie -- Battle Royale. Wabash, Witt, and Denison each choose one player to enter the octagon. Three men enter, one man leaves... with a playoff spot.

It should be the head coaches. The players did their part during the season. 3 coaches enter, first to the golden envelop gets the AQ. Ensures we always have a fresh supply of head coaches as no one would want to risk an old man in this situation. Plus it would give the coaches a good incentive to work hard during those pre-season 2 a days!

South Region football / Re: FB: Centennial Conference
« on: Today at 11:33:12 am »
Excuse me friend but Norwich was 6 and 4 and gained entrance n last year's tournament.I may have landed on my head a few times but I still have some degree of recall. Have a nice day.

That's because you don't understand how the playoffs work. There are 26 conferences (I think, might be 25) where the champion qualifies automatically, regardless of record. There is one spot (this year) reserved for teams in non-automatic qualifying conferences. And there are 5 spots reserved for at-large bids, in other words teams who don't win their AQ. If Muhlenberg does not win the CC AQ, then they need one of those 5 spots, which have NEVER gone to a team with 3 losses. They have, on rare occasions, gone to teams with 2 losses, but typically they go to 1 loss conference runner-ups.

So yes, a team can get in with a 6-4 type record, but not because they were "selected" over a 9-1 Muhlenberg. They get in because they are part of an Automatic Qualifying Conference, just like the CC teams.

Men's soccer / Re: 2016 South Atlantic
« on: Today at 10:40:34 am »
Noke @ W&L on Wednesday.  Big ODAC Tourney seeding implications in this one.  Wish I could make it.

Yep. W&L really dropped the ball losing to RMC. They need to beat Noke. Shame the game against Lynchburg won't count for ODAC purposes.

South Region football / Re: FB: Centennial Conference
« on: Today at 10:39:06 am »
F and M will not beat Hopkins unfortunately Even if the Mules run the table and finish 9 and 1,they probably will not get into the tournament. There is not a great deal of respect for the Centennial Conference.You wil probably see a 7 and 3 team get in but not Muhlenberg.It will not make this old Mule happy but that 's the way it is.Have a great day and Airborne All The Way.

A 7-3 team has never gotten an at-large bid in the AQ era. Muhlenberg got one not too long ago at 9-1 and put up a good showing. It's certainly not a guarantee that a 9-1 Muhlenberg would get a bid, but depending where in the South Region Rankings they fall it is possible. However, with few At-Larges to give out, and HSU playing UMHB tough last weekend, Muhlenberg will most likely not be the first South Region team on the table.

I posted my thoughts on RMC-W&L above. I think it's going to be absolutely fascinating as two of the statistically best units in the country clash. Yeah, not calling them the best units in the country. W&L isn't rushing for 420+ yards in the WIAC and RMC isn't one of the best defenses in the country playing in the MIAC. But statistically, and on a peer basis, this is an epic match up.

If you don't control the line of scrimmage you don't win; HSC 47 rushing yds. vs. W&L 566. Nothing else matters.
Those numbers make no sense at all. How in the he** is it possible to be totally dominated ? I expected W&L to win and I thought a good result for HSC would be 42 to 21, never expected what I saw in Sunday's paper.

Congrats to W&L. Time for HSC to rethink a lot of stuff and to regroup.

I was shocked TFA2. I haven't seen an H-SC team that helpless since I was in college in the 90s. Nothing worked for H-SC except kick coverage. Six turnovers doesn't help either, though W&L tried to help by giving three back. 

I'm going to chalk this one up to a rebuilding year for H-SC. Lot of underclassmen playing, so that should bode well for next year and beyond. Though the QB situation looked a bit grim. I don't know if he just had a bad day or what, but averaging less than 4.5 yards per pass play is not good, especially paired with 4 picks. W&L usually plays a bit soft on pass coverage, so giving up the screens and underneath balls is not unusual. Most teams can take advantage of that with a guy that can beat the first tackle. H-SC didn't seem like they had the guys to make that happen, let alone a QB or a game plan that let them test downfield throws.

Defensively H-SC was a mess. No ability to tie up the offensive line so W&L's guys were holding off the linebackers and just letting Hollerith and Hinckle get 5 yards before they were touched up the middle. We hardly ran the option at all. I think Nelson just had 3 or 4 carries. Hard to stop anyone if you are going to let them average 7+ with 2 different guys up the gut.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: Yesterday at 06:02:46 pm »
Here's the thing about next week's RMC at W&L matchup that should have everyone stand up and take notice. It is the #1 rushing offense in DIII versus the #3 rushing defense in DIII. RMC is holding opponents to 1.55 yards per rush, 42.1 rushing yards per game on the season, and only 3 rushing TDs. W&L averages 427 rushing yards per game, 6.15 yards per carry, and has scored 30 rushing TDs this season, more on average per game than RMC allowed all season.

Has there been a strength on strength match up like this in DIII this year? You have to think something about this looks very good for RMC. They almost seem built to stop W&L, kind of odd in a conference that has so many passing teams, but there you have it. Last year they held W&L to tie for the Generals' second lowest point total of the season, 21. And it took a fourth quarter 11 play, 97 yard drive for W&L to leave with a win. To be fair, W&L racked up 347 yards rushing and 5.3 yards per carry, but they still punted 8 times.

I can't help but feel the first team to 24 wins this game. If W&L gets 400 yards rushing, they win easy. If RMC holds them to less than 300, the Jackets should leave Lexington with a win. In the middle, where I expect the game to be decided, is a toss up. Turnovers and penalties will probably tell the tale.

No I don't really fear the Jackets' offense. Unless they've been saving a lot of wrinkles, there just isn't much there to fear. They have yet to score 25 points against an ODAC opponent, and while they rank 79th in YPG in DIII, they only average 365 YPG against ODAC foes, closer to 140th in DIII. In terms of scoring, they are 86th in DIII, but if you look at ODAC foes only they would be closer to 171st at about 21 points per page.

As for W&L, the offense has caught fire in 3 of the last 4 weeks. They are averaging more yards and scoring more points against ODAC foes than they did against their OOC slate. They've averaged over 40 points per game in conference, and over 540 ypg of total offense, besting their total averages of 51st in scoring (around 35) and 21st in ypg (489). In fact the ODAC average of ypg would put them 5th in DIII.

So that leaves W&L's defense. Which has been a lot better since conference play started. Playing Guilford and H-SC the last two weeks has given them balanced offensive opponents. Forcing opponents to play from behind has improved the pass defense. That was seriously lacking when C-M-S came all the way back from a huge deficit in week 3 by throwing the ball all over the field in the second half. At 149th in total defense, W&L isn't going to scare anyone away from their offensive game plan. Allowing over 400 yards per game overall, and about the same in conference, but with only 21 touchdowns allowed, and only 10 in 4 conference games, the Generals have been tougher where it matters.

So in the end, strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. W&L's rushing offense has been brutal to ODAC foes, RMC's rushing defense has killed game plans. RMC's offense can't find the endzone, W&L's defense doesn't stop teams from racking up yards.

It really should be a fascinating game.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 22, 2016, 08:25:42 pm »
Offense wins games, defense wins championships?
The football version of an old wives' tale!

True. It works better for soccer.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 22, 2016, 04:42:08 pm »
Wow does next week set up large in Lexington.  W&L's ferocious offense against R-MC's fearsome defense. Offense wins games, defense wins championships?  Likely we test that theory next Saturday. Though Shenandoah 's win against Guilford keeps them in the mix as well.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 22, 2016, 03:28:52 pm »
That was not a HSC team I am used to seeing. Just not good in all phases of the game. Wondering, even in the outside of a hurricane, how they beat Guilford.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2016, 03:19:28 pm »
I believe HSC has hosted 2 times. I remember playing JHU and Montclair St in the first round at HSC.

That is true. But H-SC was not an undefeated ODAC champion when they hosted Montclair St. They were 9-1 and ended up second fiddle to W&L in the ODAC. Of course W&L was 8-2, so they got shipped out while H-SC stayed home.

I believe the ODAC is something like 5-3 in first round home playoff games in the era. E&H lost at home before Bridgewater's run, maybe McDaniel back in the day?, and H-SC has lost twice at home in the first round, JHU in their breakout year and the aforementioned Montclair St game. Bridgewater won 4 first round home games and H-SC has won 1 I think. I don't know about total playoff home games. Bridgewater won 3 on their way to the Stagg, they won 2 twice I think as well. But I think those are the only second round and beyond games an ODAC team has won.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2016, 02:40:20 pm »
I agree with one exception, if RMC finishes 9-1 and several other teams are upset in the final weeks, RMC might have an opportunity to host, not likely but maybe. Certainly I'm not pulling for RMC to run the table. In reality, if W&L did not host last year not sure if odac will ever host again.

Part of the reason W&L didn't host was that W&L was hosting the DIII final four in field hockey.  I believe there were concerns by the NCAA on hosting two NCAA events at the same location (in sight of one another but different fields) at the same time.  Pretty sure that W&L would not have hosted even without field hockey but that certainly played a factor last year.

I suspect an undefeated ODAC champion would host better than 50% of the time. The problem is we so rarely get an undefeated ODAC champion. There are conferences where it happens more often than not. In the ODAC it has happened 7 times in 44 years. 45 now, since no one can go undefeated this year. Of the 4 times it's happened in the D3 era, Bridgewater hosted all 3 rounds on their way to the Stagg 2001, Bridgewater hosted both games they played in 2002, H-SC hosted in 2009, and W&L got shafted in 2015.

So officially the ODAC has only been shafted with an undefeated champion once, and I think a lot of that had to do with SOS. W&L's two D3 OOC opponents went 3-16 between them, and then they played Apprentice, who went 1-4 against D3 opponents. So 4-20 for OOC opponents against D3 opposition.

South Region football / Re: FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2016, 01:50:13 pm »
The week eight matchup against 1-loss Washington University at St. Louis is beginning to look increasingly interesting.

Yes, but it's actually the least important game remaining for CWRU.  Spartans will have to beat CMU and Westminster to secure a share of the PAC title.  And, make no mistake, those teams are every bit as dangerous as WashU.

Although...winning the WashU game would be a critical piece of an at-large resume if TMC would win the tiebreaker (it's hard to imagine an undefeated team ever being left out in Pool C; but a 9-1 CWRU with zero wins over regionally-ranked opponents would be very vulnerable).  10-0 matters, and holding a win against a regionally-ranked WashU team would be a nice thing to have in your back pocket.  Which means that you need WashU to otherwise run the table and share/win the SAA title, too.


Question for EXTP or Pat - has there ever been a 10-0 non auto qualifier?  I don't think its happened in the D3 era.

 I think we looked at this a few years ago when Centre went 10-0 against a very weak schedule and decided it hadn't happened.

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