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Messages - jknezek

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1
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 25, 2017, 01:06:58 pm »
ok, good points and I stand corrected. Again, have no clue what to expect from the 2017 Tiger squad. Hoping TigerFan optimism plays out. For some reason he is feeling good about the season. Either way, season can't get here soon enough.

Eh... 95/5  or 75/25 isn't a huge difference. I just don't think it's quite a guaranteed win. Or at least it wasn't for the Eagles last year! But I don't have much of an idea about HSC this year either and even less for NNA.

2
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:04:14 am »
Jk

That is a tough OOC schedule but that could easily help W&L in the long run.
HSC OOC is not easy;

Averett  --  50/50
at CNU   --- 25/75
UWP ----   10/90
Apprentice  -- 95/5

I have no idea what to expect from the Tigers, but hoping for a better result.

I think you are being somewhat optimistic on the Apprentice odds. It's so hard to tell, because they have so much turnover year to year, but last year's squad wasn't bad. They went 3-1 against DIII teams, losing to Methodist but beating Bridgewater. That's opposed to the couple years before when they were lucky to win a game against DIII opponents.

It's hard to tell what will show up, but I'd be more 75/25 than 95/5.

3
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 25, 2017, 09:26:20 am »
just don't take the frustrations of no home games in September out on HSC when they arrive first weekend in October.

3 of W&L's 4 OOC games are at home, so regardless of only playing 2 home conference games, they still have a 5-5 split. 4 of those home games come before traveling to Farmville, so I don't think that will be an issue. With 3 of our last 4 on the road, including RMC and Shenandoah, the Generals need to have a running start. The front half of the schedule, however, does not look easy. This will be a challenging year for W&L.

Hosting JHU -- definitely not favored
Hosting Sewanee -- favored
At CMS -- not favored thanks to last year's collapse and the long road trip
At E&H -- toss up?
Hosting Wash U -- maybe toss up, probably not favored
Hosting Guilford -- probably favored

That's not an easy stretch. The OOC is as brutal as I've ever seen for W&L. I've advocated for these tougher games, but staring down the gun at them is not real pretty.

4
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 24, 2017, 09:34:49 am »
Well... that was not how I expected a Jamaica upset could occur. Didn't think they'd get it off a free kick that the Mexico goal completely choked setting himself. Figured if Jamaica did win, they'd catch a counter. The U.S., as it failed to do 2 years ago, will have to be very careful of Jamaica's speed.

Still, here we see the peril of sending a B or C team to an international tournament, even one as lightly contested as the Gold Cup. Mexico has failed to reach the finals 2 of the last 3 tournaments and, of course, the U.S. failed in 2015. It also shows the stupidity of holding the Gold Cup every 2 years, though that will probably improve if this was the last edition of the Confederations Cup.

5
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:31:55 pm »
Well there you go. The best game they've played in the tournament so far. Did Costa Rica squander some chances? Absolutely, but we squandered a few as well, including Morris in the first 30 seconds. Scoring that fast would have changed the game. Regardless, the team made the finals, as we should in the Gold Cup. We also have won our last 3 games 7-0 combined, which is interesting considering how ragged the defense has been. Last night was much better. Gonzalez and Besler at least look like they can work together, and Bradley marshalling in front of them definitely helps.

It's still not a very good US team, but they are winning and that is what matters. I assume we'll face Mexico in the finals, though their C team hasn't really been much prettier than ours. But Jamaica is capable of pulling an upset as well. There speed is always dangerous on a counter. Hopefully the US will finish the tournament strong. For all our complaining, there isn't much more we can ask than that. Being pretty isn't as important as winning at that the ultimate levels.

6
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 20, 2017, 09:37:16 am »
Uggh. The defense. I don't see what Arena sees in Morrow and Hedges. I just don't get it. Lichaj looked lost at times defensively, though better going forward. Frankly the whole back line beside Gonzalez looked like they'd never played defense before, and even Gonzalez seemed to have trouble communicating with the rest of the line making him indecisive.

I thought Arriola was OK last night. Better than Zardes who seems to have bricks where his feet are supposed to be. I liked Nagbe and Bradley together. That seemed like one of the few things that worked.

The refs were pathetic. Zardes was onside, though having goals called back for that hardly seems like an oddity these days. El Salvador should have been playing with 8 by the end of the game. Ridiculously dirty and the Canadian ref was much too timid about throwing cards until midway through the second half.

Regardless, the Americans need to get some practice in how to play as a team. That way they aren't screwing up simple passes and positioning because they don't know where each other are going to be or want each other to be. There was some seriously sad teamwork last night.

On the upside, through to the next round. We've scored 9 goals and let in 3, none in the last 2 games. Pretty sure a lot of that goal differential is opponent incompetence, but the ratio stands. Win the group, check, win the trap game, check, win the two games against quality opponents? We will see.

7
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 04:22:30 pm »
We can all go laugh about this later but I did an interesting exercise. I just looked at the conference schedule and realized how big home and away could be if we have a lot of parity this year.


Home vs Away games
RMC  4 (SU, E&H, W&L, H-SC)  2  (BC, GC)
SU     3 (E&H, BC, W&L),           3 (RMC, GC, HSC)
W&L   2 (GC, BC),                     4 (E&H, HSC, RMC, SU)
E&H   3 (W&L, BC, HSC),           3 (SU, RMC, GC)
BC     2 (RMC, GC),                   4 (HSC, SU, E&H, W&L)
HSC   3 (BC, W&L, SU),             3 (GC, E&H, RMC)
GC    4 (HSC, SU, RMC, E&H)    2 (W&L, BC)


What does this mean? I'm downgrading W&L's and BC's chances, upgrading RMCs, and a whole lot depends on how good GC is this season. RMC having 4 home games is huge. Having them against 2 or 3 of the teams I think could be in the top half of the standings is even better. Unless GC surprises, RMC looks like going to BC is their only tough road game. Huge, huge advantage.

BC has the opposite problem. They get RMC at home, a chance to prove themselves, but road trips to SU, E&H, and W&L, plus HSC, could be trying. GC at home is a variable.

If you consider my three teams as RMC, SU, and E&H as challengers, GC gets them all at home. Plus HSC. Trips to W&L and BC might be challenging. Really makes GC the wildcard.

Teams having 4 home games, and others having 2 conference home games, is one more reason I'm looking forward to Ferrum joining the conference.

Having looked at this, I'm going to give RMC a decent chance at going 5-1 in conference.

8
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 03:23:31 pm »
This is probably the toughest year I can remember. It doesn't really feel like any school has too many stars coming back. RMC and W&L lose a lot. I know that.

I am going to go out on a limb and say Shenandoah will not be the worst team in the league this season. I think they will be in the top 4 actually. Bauserman is a good qb and he's coming back for his jr season. Losing Delaney hurts, but their stud receiver also comes back. Last year the threat of Delaney opened up the passing game for Bauserman. I think Bauserman is good enough this year that the threat of his arm and Ashwell running patterns will be enough to open up the running game for whoever replaces Delaney. Defensively.... eh, not sure. But the offense should win them a few games.

With Hoy and Frederick back I think RMC's running game will be good. They bring back Castle on the O line as well. They graduate a lot, but that's a good enough base for the offense if its similar to what they ran last year. I think the defense will be good again. Maybe not as good as last year as they lose 4 first team and 2 second team All-Odac selections, but good enough though they maybe won't be able to rely on it quite so much.

W&L needs to rebuild the offense. Don't get me wrong, they have a lot of guys that have played and played well in spots, but all the big producers from last year basically graduated. One first team All-Odac O lineman back. Defensively I think W&L will be ok. They lose Dyson and Delk, all-ODAC guys, but a lot comes back. Freeman and Garrison should be a good tandem leading the DB/LB areas respectively.

I feel like BC and E&H will be bringing back a lot. I think BC is a legit threat to win the conference this year, just a gut feeling based on how they ended the season, and so is E&H if you don't have my tendency to see them as head cases.

I have no idea on Guilford. Not one clue. I have a ton of faith in Coach R. What he did rebuilding that program was amazing. Last year was ugly. Coach R showed he can take young guys and coach them through a lot of playing time to be really, really good. The question is can he transform the guys that have been waiting a turn to be ready to be starters. Last year didn't look so good, and sometimes coaches need to get that concept figured out. I think he will, but I have no idea what Guilford has.

HSC -- no bloody clue. The last 3 years have had a trend that isn't pretty. I didn't watch a lot of the Tigers last year except for the W&L game, and that was pitiful. 3 of the last 5 seasons have been 3 or more losses, something that only happened in the very first rebuilding years of Coach Favret's reign. Coach Favret hasn't forgotten how to coach, but something has happened to the talent level relative to the rest of the ODAC. I just don't know if that can be corrected in one off season.

I also have a feeling that this isn't a season of a 6-0 team and an 0-6 team and it's pretty clear in the middle. This seems more of a nasty ODAC muddle at this point. In other words, I'm thinking more 2008 or 2014 than 2016 or 2011.

9
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 02:18:49 pm »
Well this has been fun. I mean, what else do we have to discuss in mid July? I like all the viewpoints and I think really we are separated by degrees. Terms like "big upset", "huge upset" and "upset" just aren't quantified or at least don't have an agreed definition. I think that almost all of us will agree that H-SC beating UWP is an upset. I'm not going to touch on W&L vs JHU. There is no doubt that would be an upset.

App State beating Michigan was an upset. UWW losing to Buff State was an upset. Upsets happen. Here's hoping our ODAC teams pull off a few when they face Huntingdon, JHU, UWP and TMC...

10
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:25:03 pm »
JK many "upsets" might turn out not to be upsets. Buster Douglas over Tyson for example. But at the moment it was shocking. Same as App v. Michigan. App was at the time of the game the two time defending national champs.  ASU had never beaten a FBS team not named Wake Forest. Michigan's tradition, 85 scholarship players vs 63, opening day of what was supposed to be a championship season for Michigan, Mike Hart, Jake Long, Chad Henne, Mario Maningham, heck there was not even a betting line on the game. Michigan scheduled App  because they ran the spread. They wanted to play the game because they thought they'd be playing for the national championship against Florida (another spread team). So even their coaches who wanted this game thought this was a good tune up. Playing Michigan on opening day in front of 109000 people certainly was daunting.  It is widely regarded as the greatest college football upset of all time. Google it. Every article I looked at agrees. Even with hindsight it is still the great upset of all time.

I know. Don't disagree with any of your info. I just think the conclusion is wrong. UM wasn't that good and App State was much better than expected. We proclaim it is the greatest upset of all time by looking at the game in a vacuum instead of in context. I don't expect that to change. I just like to point out the reality sometimes. That is 100% a week 1 phenomenon. Had the pundits gotten a look at UM for a few weeks before the game happened, they never would have been ranked that high and it wouldn't have been a "greatest of all time" type thing. Just a big upset.

And I'd take Temple over VTech in 1998 any time. It's just not as flashy. Temple was a team that ended up as 106th in the Massey Ratings beating a team that ended up 23rd. Temple only won 2 games that year. VT won 9. It was orders of magnitude larger an upset than 2 time FCS champion App State beating Michigan in week 1 of a season in which App State won another National Title and Michigan lost 4 or 5 games.

11
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 South Atlantic
« on: July 19, 2017, 12:19:43 pm »
What kind of previews? The coaches' poll usually comes out the last week in August.

12
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 12:18:04 pm »
How cool would that be if HSC upsets UWP and W&L upsets JH in the same year. obviously dreaming; if it were to happen odac would certainly earn respect. So with that in mind, I'll put you in charge of the JH upset and TigerFan in charge of the UWP upset !!!! I can't wait to see UWP play and how our guys match up/hold up.
That's good delegation...

13
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 11:26:37 am »
so I go back to my original statement; HSC over UWP would be a bigger upset than the one we are beating to death. Michigan's reputation is driving the degree of the upset and I get that; App was a very good team that could have beaten many D1 schools in 2007; I can't say the 2017 edition of HSC football is going to be great, could be good, certainly better than last year, so if they pull the upset, it will be huge in the D3 world.

I would agree it will be a really big upset. And I really hope it happens!

14
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 11:16:11 am »
Ok. Just because I got bored. At the end of the 2007 season, Massey had Michigan at 16, surrounded by TN and BC, and App State at 44, surrounded by Virginia and TCU. For example, Wisconsin shellacked Michigan that year, and they finished in the Massey ratings at 34, only 10 spots ahead of App State... How come that isn't one of the great upsets of all time?

15
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 09:46:26 am »

I do. But even if you assume this happens once a year for teams 10-15, that's 5 teams, 10 games a year. 50 games a year, you are looking at 13 seasons of data, that's 650 games. So yeah, it happens about 2% of the time. Not quite fat tail territory on a distribution graph, but pretty far out there...

But the 10th-15th ranked team in the country isn't going to play 10 games a year against that level of competition (or worse).

2008 Wartburg played 7-3 St. Norbert, 7-3 Simpson, 7-3 Buena Vista, 6-4 Loras, 6-4 Central
2010 Alfred played 9-2 Fisher, 9-2 Alfred, 6-4 Ithaca, 6-4 RPI.
2011 Kean: 12-2 Wesley, 9-2 Cortland, 7-3 TCNJ, 8-2 Montclair

(I'm using 2 games over .500 as a quick and dirty line of "Better than HSC might be considered" I understand someone has to be above .500 in these conferences, but I need a shorthand way to determine "meh" vs "better than meh")

So I bet it's more frequent than the 1-in-50 you're giving. Which is to say, it's a big upset, but it's not this sort of spit take "Is this the biggest upset ever?" sort of upset. Which, even after readjusting for the rest of Michigan's season, that game probably was.

See I just disagree with this. You not only have to adjust for Michigan being an around # 20 team, but you have to adjust for App State being the FCS National Champion. The BEST team in FCS. Where would that put them in FBS? About mid-pack likely. So really you have an inside the top 60 FBS team beating about the 20th ranked FBS team. It's an upset. It's just not that big. It's only that big because everyone severely over ranked Michigan that year and no one really concerns themselves with how good App State really was.

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