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Messages - jknezek

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South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 17, 2017, 11:10:26 am »
Time will tell if they are good enough to play and/or if W&L is the right fit academically.
I know their HS coach well and he indicates all three to be legitimate prospective D3 Student-Athletes.
I've seen them play on several occasions and I would agree with coaches projection. Would love to have the QB and MLB at HSC, both could play early in their career.

That's great news. But my comment about sticking around isn't really related to fit, it's simply the nature of DIII sports. Even W&L, which has a very good retention rate, brings in between 25 and 35 FYs and ends up with between 10 and 17 seniors. Not always because the young men can't play at the level, but just because they decide it is not worth it.

I was, very minimally, recruited to play soccer at W&L. I showed up for the fall practices and, as the coach was quite honest in telling me, learned that I would probably play some as a junior or senior if I stuck it out. I was good enough, if I kept at it, to play eventually in some role, I just didn't have the drive. So after a couple weeks of fall practice we had an amicable parting and I quite happily at various times instead played club soccer, club rugby, worked as a student athletic trainer, reported and edited one of the student newspapers, did the Mock Convention program and magazine, was a dorm counselor, was house manager of my fraternity and probably a few other things I'm forgetting. There is a lot to do on a college campus, and quite often that sport we loved just falls, quite understandably, to a lower priority.

That's why I'm always happy to welcome the FYs. I love to see where they are from and hope they do well. But it really doesn't get me excited until they are on the field.  ;D

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 17, 2017, 10:18:18 am »
They are the ones I mentioned in an earlier post. Good kids/players, one is a kicker so not really a "player" the other two QB & MLB. QB would have been 3rd generation at VMI put choose another, more expensive, path !!!

I hope they stick around so I can enjoy rooting for them.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 16, 2017, 04:34:43 pm »


Does the commitment info you saw include the HS the kids are attending ? If so, how many from Douglas S. Freeman in Richmond ?

3   Trey Laughlin, Sam Murphy, and Andrew Ryan

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 16, 2017, 12:27:06 pm »
W&L posted 17 "Early Decision" commits today on their instagram. Mostly VA kids, but GA, NC (2), MD (2), TN, and NY showing up. Given most W&L FY classes in camp are in the high 20s to mid 30s, that's a significant chunk if they all decide to play ball.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 16, 2017, 09:50:48 am »
In 2014 HSC ranked 144th and that ranking, as bad as it may sound, was good enough to win the ODAC.

Yeah, but the HSC offense that year was strong. I don't think another Nash Nance is sitting on the bench or transferring in before this season. We'll see. As it stands, I expect HSC to be mid-pack in the ODAC this year. That's just my way too early thoughts. But as we've seen, the difference between mid-pack and the top is generally just a few players.

South Region football / Re: FB: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: February 15, 2017, 09:49:40 am »
Welcome to the boards.

I'm looking forward to seeing Brevard's schedule as well. I see on their website they will be releasing it soon--that will tell us if we are going 8 conference games or 7. Wouldn't be surprised if it's 8 this year and 7 next year.

No need to wait for that part:

Ask and ye shall receive, huh?

Little surprised Methodist has released their schedule already. Little early than usual for USAC teams, isn't it?

If you have it done, why hide it? It's not like there is some big media day celebration around DIII schedule releases.

I hope you are right. I hope he is given enough time to succeed. But this year was an unmitigated disaster. Next year has to be better.

Right now LL needs him more. LL is going to have to do something this year, cause his seat is getting hot. He'd probably have more time if the AD that hired him had stuck around, but without him, the new AD isn't going to want someone else's guy having another year like this year dragging him down.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 12, 2017, 09:23:41 pm »
JK liked RMC in preseason last year. I don't know if he thought they'd win it. But I remember he liked them. I trust a guy like JK more than a guy like Hansen to make accurate ODAC predictions. JK at least keeps up with ODAC on a regular basis.

I post a lot. Some of them have to be right.  ;D  Hansen does a good job. It's just a math model. Especially this early in the year it's all based on past years. Most times last year (and the 5 before that) are important, occasionally it's not. Even in the ODAC up until the last 2 years you had more than a decade where you could count on HSC being in the top 2 essentially. You could also almost always count on Catholic being terrible. In a 7 team league you had basically 2 gimmes based on history, so a historical model is going to do real well on balance. Given Guilford was pretty awful until 3 years ago you had either 3 of 7 or 3 of 8. Then Shenandoah was pretty bad, so while Guilford might have tripped up the model, Shenandoah provided a gimme. So it becomes easy to hit the high value best and worst teams (what ruins the model score is when your 1 becomes a 5 or your 6 becomes a 2, not when your 6 becomes a 4), then slot everyone else in essentially low value middle spots, and historical models work well.

But they will never catch the outlier. So 2006 W&L, 2010 W&L, 2014 Guilford (somewhat), 2015 W&L, 2016 RMC to some extent, just a bitch on those models. You'll never catch them because they don't fit history... That being said, it's not like the coaches or anyone else do a great job predicting those outliers either. That's why they are outliers.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 09, 2017, 01:29:58 pm »
W&L just wasn't as good on offense as expected. Whether that was the loss of a lineman or two or not I won't say but I don't think so. Simply put, the expectations were higher for the offense than what was realized, especially given how much experienced and senior leadership returned.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 08, 2017, 04:59:33 pm »
I'm not a big fan of preseason predictions as HansonRatings and I found out in our discussion at the beginning of last year. Especially in DIII where you don't know what's coming back. It's ok for the really elite teams. They have clear 1st, 2nd, 3rd string that you can see the progression year to year. There just isn't much surprise in the roster. But for the ODAC type teams, or even the vast majority of DIII in general, where people don't always come back or an impact player literally can come from nowhere, it's really hard to do. There's just too many holes that need to be filled every year and almost no way to predict how they will be filled and with what quality. Let alone what happens with injuries. The drop off between the #1 and 2 running backs, and instead having to use the #2 and 3 running backs, let alone the difference at 1 and 2 QB sometimes, is just massive.

Can you do it for the top 10 or 15 teams and be reasonably close? Yes. You can probably do it for the bottom 40 teams as well. Those teams hardly move regardless. But teams 20 through 200? Pretty much impossible to be all that accurate.

South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Athletic Association
« on: February 07, 2017, 05:01:58 pm »
Agreed.    Made even more odd when one notes that our Board of Regents was on the Mountain up through Monday.   Of course, people accuse me of being a latent conspiracy theorist.  :)

Our administration likes to get as much marketing capital out of our program's history as they can without putting any real investment into the product produced by the current generation.  Result: our last wining season was in 2000.

The other thing I hear quite often is that you can't recruit players with talent into a school like Sewanee without sacrificing academic standards.  That one, I always point them at W&L, Centre, and WashU and ask why are kicking our tails in football and staying ahead us in the many academic rankings.

I think there is a limit. For example, Wash U, CMU, and JHU are significantly larger schools. This goes back many years, but I graduated with a guy who went to JHU to play football. He was in the top 1/3 of the class of 300 seniors, but nothing really special academically. He was a pretty good football player and I know he played for at least 2 or 3 years for the Blue Jays. I knew a girl who was in the top 10% of my graduating class who was rejected from JHU the same year. Academically special, but few extra curriculars. I think it is easier to do that kind of thing at JHU, CMU, Wash U and the other 5000+ enrollment high ranking schools than W&L, Centre, Sewanee and the other non-NESCAC small elite liberal arts schools. If you do that with too many athletes, it doesn't take much to show up in a class of 300 or 400 students in a way it doesn't show up in a class of 1000.

All that said, however, Sewanee can certainly do better. There really isn't an excuse, but it probably will take some money and some grace on the admissions side. says the average net cost of attending Centre in 2014/15 was $24,885. W&L was $20,700. And Sewanee was $25,414. Both Centre and Sewanee had sticker prices of around 45K, W&L's sticker was closer to $60K, but it didn't seem to be calculated exactly the same. Regardless, as you can see, what the kids pay, on average, is a lot less than the sticker, though Sewanee is still the highest. That might be part of the impediment.

Sewanee's numbers are in line with Rhodes, 28K net, and Berry, 24K net. However, Millsaps at 21K net and BSC at 22K net plus Hendrix, which is not in the same format, all appear less than Sewanee and more in line with W&L's net number.

I suspect money isn't the whole problem though. A pervasive losing culture simply makes it hard to recruit. I suspect the 16 years of futility has created a self-fulfilling kind of problem.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 06, 2017, 07:36:27 pm »
Sure hope so. That was an awful post full of nonsense. +k

South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Athletic Association
« on: February 06, 2017, 07:35:36 pm »
Huh. Strange time to resign. Wonder if recruiting was not going well or he got an escape from a situation that wasn't improving.  Release sounds like the latter.

South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: February 06, 2017, 02:12:39 pm »
It all goes along with my theory that star players generally make lousy coaches. It all comes naturally and easy to them, meaning they didn't have to learn it, so they don't have an ingrained idea of how to teach it. Certainly they can learn to teach, but for the most part, that middling guy who had to think about everything to make the roster one year, then think about everything even more to improve to make the field the next year, then learn and think about even more to become a starter the next year... that's the guy that makes the transition to coach. He didn't have the talent, he had to learn the skills, so he will already have a head start on knowing how to teach them.

Of course it is all relative. The guy that starred in DIII might have been the guy that had to work for it in FCS. And the guy that starred in FCS, might have been the guy that worked for it in FBS. And the pro that barely got off the practice squad, even though he starred in FBS, might become one of the best coaches of all time. So in the end, it's all relative.

Sadly this is the kind of thing that I end up typing in the off-season...

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