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Messages - Matthew Webb

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1
Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: Yesterday at 08:31:55 pm »
 Episode II

It's like a queen sacrifice that sets up an endgame so subtly crushing no one can yet see it.

2
Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: Yesterday at 10:50:08 am »
Seems like Hobart put it's back to the wall tripping up in the last week. I'm guessing they either have to win the ECACW tourney (no easy feat) or they're done, right?

Tough call, though we'll know more after today's regional rankings come out. As of last week Hobart was still in via Pool C and now has won twice so it may still be ok. I do suspect Point is still in front for Pool B, but we'll see how tonight's Bracketology transpires...

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Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 16, 2017, 10:45:58 pm »
Another thing I've yet to hear mentioned: Oswego's position and numbers are eerily similar to where Plattsburgh was last year. Nearly identical set-up. And we all know how that one ended...

As an Oswego fan I'm not too worried as long as we beat Buff state and Fredonia this weekend we're in.  There are 4 pool C bids this year which increases our odds, because at that point any other team vying for a pool C would also have a loss(outside of ECAC-W and WIAC). Our SOS will go up facing off against 0.7174 Buff State and 0.5714 Fredonia. who would get in over us? Norwich and Endicott, that would still leave 2 Pool C bids,   We have Hobart on COP (9-1-1 Us to 8-2 Them assuming they beat Elmira 2X), win% by alot, and presumably RNK, they have SOS, but we'll get a boost and they'll drop alot playing 2X against 0.3696 Elmira.  SNC we're tied for win%, COP, we lead in SOS. which they'll get a slight boost against MSOE whose 0.5870, but we'll get a bigger boost and will still be ahead of them, they have us in RNK which might put them ahead of us, all depends on whose ranked who isn't, (I could see Manhattanville getting ranked by the east to help Utica hurt SNC) but lets say SNC gets that Pool C Bid, that would still leave one left, Stevens point will get the pool B over Hobart so they're not a worry.  If they drop enough where Hobart gets it over them then they're still not a worry. Babson beats us in SOS and we beat them in everything else. So worst case scenario would be Plattsburgh beating Geneseo tomorrow and then beating Oswego again in the tournament and getting ranked, knocking Geneseo out of the rankings, we'd lose 1-0-1 in Geneseo and gain 1-2-0 from a ranked Plattsburgh.  But for that to be a worry Norwich, Endicott, SNC would all have to lose and Hobart would have to win out their Tournament.

But if we lose a game this weekend all bets are off, we still would have a great shot at a pool C even then.

All mostly true, though none of it will matter if Wego gets tanked in the East rankings. It's happened before for strange reasons when the numbers didn't seem to back it up (Trinity). Just saying that Wego is in a rather similar spot to where Platty was last year. It's at least something worth being mindful of. That's all...

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Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 16, 2017, 10:43:20 pm »
Since I am one of the ones stating the "CCC isn't any good" .....

I am not disputing the numbers the NCAA is using. It is what it is. However, the CCC is 13-23-2 vs non MASCAC/DII/Independent ect teams. That's a .368 and probably more reflective of the league as a whole.

A 15-5-2 (.727) Plymouth State team is not the same as a 15-5-3 (.717) Geneseo team and or a 13-6-3 (.659) Williams team on the ice. By the numbers yes, but that is the clear issue here with these two conferences playing each other.

Only 8 of the 38 CCC NC games have been against teams who are 1st or 2nd in their respected conferences.

Only 9 of the 38 CCC NC games have been against teams who have a .650 or higher winning %...of which they were 1-7-1......

Maybe I am missing a game or two here....but 1-7-1 speaks for itself.

Again, I understand the Committee has the use the data given to them by the NCAA Championship Selection rules, however it's a perfect example for what we will continue to see unless the formulas are tweaked. It's actually appeasing to see the Committee is using the numbers and not using our "fan math" to make the list. Endicott worked the system to a T and will probably be rewarded for it which will cause a lot of heads to spin.

But again, I (as well as many others) could be way off on Endicott and the CCC in general, but I don't think we are that far off. I think they are a good team (probably mid to upper mid pack in the SUNYAC, NEHC, and ECAC W) but worthy of a Top 2 seed....or even a Pool C bid....not sure.  We've seen how much the SoS carrys weight in the selection process, and their .500 RNK (a mind blowing 0-0-1 *rollseyes*) Just keeps adding up. The numbers might drop slightly for sure with upcoming opponents, but will it be enough. I don't think we will see a major drop (or large enough) to drop them from contention from either the #2/#3 seed or a Pool C seed if they happen to lose.

I do find it funny that a certain poster who went on rant after rant about how the CCC and MASCAC bids were a complete joke, now all of a sudden has a change of heart because a CCC/MASCAC school is high up in his KRACH ranking lol. One year must make a huge difference in his eyes.

People better hope they take care of the CCC tournament....let the fun begin..

We're talking in different contexts here :)

I'm not contending the CCC could go toe-to-toe with the NESCAC across the board. The numbers do back up the perception that it's not one of the top leagues. However, the numbers also back up that the league did well enough in non-conference play that its collective record is not serving as a SOS crusher. Not great, but well enough. In that context the league actually outperformed the likes of the NCHA and MIAC and is only a few games off the pace of the ECACW; it doesn't matter who those NC games came against.

As far as all the annual jawjacking about KRACH, if people want to argue over which ranking system is most credible that's fine and can be a good discussion, but why some goof repeatedly brings it up in already haphazard discussions about NCAA selection is beyond me. It's as relevant to the topic as are the DI football rankings.

5
Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 16, 2017, 12:33:32 pm »
Another thing I've yet to hear mentioned: Oswego's position and numbers are eerily similar to where Plattsburgh was last year. Nearly identical set-up. And we all know how that one ended...

6
Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 16, 2017, 12:32:39 pm »
I haven't run the individual numbers, but I'm pretty sure it has to do with them playing teams with good records from the CCC and MASCAC that beat up on bottom-feeders: Nichols, Salve, Curry, Plymouth, Salem, etc., as well as Norwich and Neumann (whose OOWP numbers are probably pretty good). Endicott's SOS number will most likely drop after their next three games against bottom-half CCC competition. It'll be very interesting to see how it all plays out in the end. The previously-mentioned Trinity example of a team falling drastically with one loss leads me to think that Endicott will not get in without the auto-bid.

Sorry I didn't get back to you earlier on this, but...it's OWP and not OOWP that's driving Endicott's SOS. OWP is top ten in the nation and somewhere in the ballpark of .5500 while OOWP is pretty mediocre at ~.5050. Endicott's NC schedule is sort of a perfect storm. Norwich, Neumann, two against Salem (13-6-3 for SOS purposes) and Plymouth (15-4-2).

The other contributor, which is amusing as I keep seeing people say "but the CCC isn't any good!" is that from a SOS standpoint...that's not really true this year. The league is 32-29-8 out of conference, which becomes 22-25-4 if we look only at DIII games (related: the claim that all it does is play the MASCAC is also off-base as only 13 of those 51 games came against the MASCAC). Anyway, the CCC isn't lighting things up at a .700 clip like we see some other leagues do from time to time, but it's NC record is barely under .500 and thus won't be much of an anchor. Even less of one once you strip losses to Endicott out of CCC teams' records for SOS calculations and you're looking at a .500 baseline. Not great but good enough not to hurt it. Pair it up with those NC games, and you've got yourself a .5380. So it makes sense, but you're right...it's going to come down from here on out. I bet it's down around .5250 next week. I wrote a desktop app that estimates these things things but don't have it handy at the moment. I'll give it a run later and we'll see what it says.

Anyway, I wrote that while on a conference call so hopefully it makes sense, but simply put, Endicott's high SOS makes sense because 1) its NC schedule is helping big time, and 2) the CCC is not serving as a SOS anchor.

7
Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 15, 2017, 08:45:16 am »
Quote
the committee has spoken and the number one team in a region isn't going to sit at home.

Tell that to Trinity a few years ago

Trinity was #1 the Tuesday prior and not at the time of selection, though. Was a strange occurrence, but in this instance we're dealing with a team that is #1 in region at time of selection.

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Men's hockey / Re: 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 14, 2017, 09:03:37 pm »

9
Men's hockey / 2017 Bracketology....it's here.
« on: February 14, 2017, 08:18:14 pm »
First edition pending...

10
Men's hockey / Re: NCHA Hockey
« on: June 21, 2016, 12:14:29 pm »
The NCHA added another member today, as Trine University will join the league starting in 2017-18...

http://www.uscho.com/2016/06/14/new-trine-d-iii-mens-womens-teams-to-join-ncha-conferences/

Yeah we had it on our front page hours prior.

11
Men's hockey / Re: WIAC expansion
« on: March 18, 2016, 01:29:01 pm »
I know that the WIAC is pursuing two NCHA schools quite hard.

Better hope those schools don't improve too much, or the WIAC will yank the rug out from under them, too.

Sounds about right. :p

12
Men's hockey / Re: WIAC expansion
« on: March 15, 2016, 01:30:35 pm »
Has anyone else heard that two teams might be moving to the WIAC?

Sounds about right.

13
Men's hockey / Re: 2016 Bracketology
« on: March 08, 2016, 05:05:22 pm »
I figured that didn't get by you!  ;D  I'm betting you're right and the sheets weren't supposed to have been posted.

I was disappointed they got out there. The projected final rankings we came up with after Trinity won ended up being perfect. Would have looked like geniuses popping Geneseo to 2E and then been right about it!

14
Men's hockey / Re: 2016 Bracketology
« on: March 08, 2016, 04:22:52 pm »
P.S. Webb - I  hope I speak for the few of us that still follow D3 ... we really appreciate your time, effort and expertise.

Thanks to you and the handful of others who have expressed similar sentiments over the past week. I'm just glad someone is reading this stuff. These days it's really fun again and I'll keep doing it until it is no longer. On my end it really helps that I'm not the head guy anymore as I'd have ended up dying from lack of sleep or something but that means I'm all fresh and ready to go come late February these days, which sure beats what happened in 2013 when I had a headache for the final six weeks of the season. Ray deserves an enormous amount of credit for the work he puts in, too. He's probably the only guy in the country who could have taken it over and done as well as he has. Now if we could just get him to post here...

15
Men's hockey / Re: 2016 Bracketology
« on: March 08, 2016, 04:17:45 pm »
Hobart with a first place vote in the poll this week(must be the first time, ever ,for the program) .Hope that doesn't jinx the Statesman.  Looks like the likely path to the Championship will be last years Champs, #2 and #1…hopefully the one voter that gave them a #1 is right. Looks like some great match ups in the tourney.

Hobart also had one first vote in our January 25 and February 1 polls. Can't recall if it has gotten any votes in recent years. I'm going to be really excited to see whoever it is that comes out of that Hobart trio in Placid, but if it is indeed Hobart that semi will be way up there on my all-time most anticipated list (if SNC wins). Absolutely loved the way Hobart played there in '09. It was the best team there that weekend, by so much that I voted it #1 in final poll. They lost that semi but were still the best team. Granted my ballot was tossed out, I think, but I stand by that vote.

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