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Messages - Mid-Atlantic Fan

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1
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: June 16, 2020, 01:09:56 pm »
Nice reminder on the changes coming to the MAC this fall. 

I'd imagine that the omission of Stevens was an unintentional oversight on MAF's part.  Heck, it almost appeared like he might have been listing the Commonwealth and Freedom  teams in the order he expects them to finish which would mean having Stevens ahead of Lyco.  Now, since Lycoming is his team and have pushed Messiah over the past stretch of years, I can see MAF rating Lyco ahead of Stevens, but it's hard to imagine he also thinks all those other teams, especially the honorable mentions, are in front of the Ducks. I imagine that, like me, it's hard to get used to Stevens being a Mid-Atlantic team after decades of them being in other regions (Metro, then East).

Great catch! Yes I should have included Stevens in the HM section for the preseason poll. I'd favor them over Scranton, LVC and Stevenson in that section although I do not think they will crack the top 10. Stevens had a great record last year but played a weak schedule both non-conference and conference. This caused them to have little consideration for a top 10 regional ranking by the NCAA committee due to low SOS. They do return a boatload of talent from a strong team last season and will certainly be a favorite alongside Lycoming and Kings in the Freedom conference. But they got bounced in the semifinals at home as the 1 seed. They played a weak schedule and did well with that part but when they faced their first true tests of the season they crumbled. The 5 game stretch prior to conference and at the start of MAC play saw them go 0-3-2 and only one of those teams was regionally or nationally ranked. So it's hard for me to have them in the top 10 based on last year's performance against top/above average quality coupled with being knocked from the first round. Historically they have been very good and I think they will have another fantastic year this fall, but that doesn't warrant a top 10 finish at the moment. I think the Freedom ultimately will come down to either Stevens or Lycoming but Kings has always been pesky and shouldn't be overlooked as Stevens knows all too well now. .527 SOS and 1-1-0 RvR isn't going to cut it so I am intrigued to see if they have made any adjustments to the 2020 schedule to help bolster that SOS. The addition of Lycoming will certainly help but the non-conference schedule will determine how much of a boost they will get. 

2
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: June 16, 2020, 09:49:01 am »
MID-ATLANTIC REGION
1.   Johns Hopkins
2.   Franklin and Marshall   
3.   Messiah
4.   Swarthmore   
5.   Gettysburg
6.   Catholic   
7.   Dickinson   
8.   Haverford   
9.   Lycoming   
10.   Elizabethtown   

Here is how the final NCAA rankings shaped up last season. I think we will see these familiar faces in the mix again this upcoming season. Some others to throw in the mix are Scranton, Stevens, Eastern and Muhlenberg. All had solid years but were just on the outside looking in.

Some items to watch and note as we head into the fall are conference realignments and coaching changes. The most notable change in the region is the departure of Eastern's HC Jeremy Payne who headed to the west coast. He is replaced by former Elmira HC Kevin Brenner. Eastern has been rather successful in recent years under Wagner and Payne and only time will tell if Brenner can have the same success. But it will be difficult as Eastern swaps conferences as they jump from the MAC Freedom to the MAC Commonwealth. York will also tag along with Eastern making the Commonwealth even more competitive. In what looks like an attempt to balance the 2 divisions of the MAC, Arcadia and Lycoming are leaving the MAC Commonwealth and headed to the MAC Freedom. From a soccer perspective, I don't think Arcadia or Lycoming will miss facing off with Messiah in the postseason anymore, but Stevens and some others in the Freedom are no joke. Another change include Juniata finding a new HC in Brendan Grady who most recently assisted at Swarthmore.   

So here is how the new MAC looks:
Commonwealth
Messiah
Eastern
York
LVC
Alvernia
Stevenson
Albright
Widener
Hood

Freedom
Stevens
Lyco
Arcadia
Kings
Misericordia
DeSales
Del Val
FDU Florham
Wilkes


My way too early predictions include many familiar names for the region but it's worth a shot!

MAF Preseason Poll
1. Messiah
2. Hopkins
3. Haverford
4. F&M
5. Lyco
6. Dickinson
7. Gettysburg
8. Etown
9. Swarthmore
10. Catholic
HM: LVC, Scranton, Stevenson

3
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:43:58 pm »
Oglethorpe, Roanoke, Ithaca, ONU, Trinity, Colorado, Central and Hope all making the committee look a little rough...most notably Oglethorpe, Roanoke and Hope. All were bubble teams who got thrashed in the first round. 2 goals combined by the 3 teams and that team being Roanoke who scored both. Gave up 9 goals combined. Hope faced a tough OWU team but looked rough to say the least especially considering they were hosting. Oglethorpe never stepped off the bus and Roanoke at least put up a fight but lost to a team that couldn't make their conference playoffs and hadn't played a game in 14 days. And sure you can argue that Swarthmore is now in the Sweet 16 but they bounced 2 South Atlantic teams in the process...not a good look for the at-large surprises that were awarded to this region. With that said, the top of the region has been strong in W&L, Centre and Rowan but no one argued that. Montclair with a nice run as well to demolish the beaten down East region. RPI is all that remains? The Mid-Atlantic had a great opening day but faltered in the second round. Most games were competitive and hard fought which speaks to the strength of the region but tough to see F&M and JHU both bow out so early. New England is always tough and have proven so once again. 3 teams remain from the top of their region and I don't think anyone is surprised by that. GL looking okay but John Carroll once again hosts and disappoints. Kenyon and OWU look like the cream of the crop from that region and can make nice runs to the finish line. Luther, Calvin and North Park all look beatable but will be tough outs. Claremont is a mystery but bounced a questionable Trinity with ease. The West not well represented outside of Claremont. F&M and JC just aren't tourney teams despite their continued regular season success. Always a disappointment to the many that pick them. ONU maybe biggest disappointment as the SOS and ranked wins looked great but the first round performance did not.   

Region Breakdown:
NE: 3
East: 1
MA: 2
SA: 4
GL: 2
Cen: 2
North: 1
West: 1

Toughest Sectionals:
Swarthmore
Amherst
North Park
Kenyon

4
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:15:40 pm »
Messiah and Swat all that remain in the Sweet 16. The region had a nice opening day showing but faced some tough teams in the second round and didn't perform as well.

Round 1: (5 wins & 4 losses)
Messiah wins
Keystone loses
F&M wins
PSU Harris loses
JHU wins
Eastern loses
Getty wins
Swat wins
Catholic loses

Round 2: (2 wins & 3 losses)
Messiah wins
F&M loses
JHU loses
Swat wins
Getty loses

Swat gets to host and Messiah gets to play on grass. Can see both advancing another game or two. Hoping one can make the final 4!

5
Men's soccer / Re: 2019 South Atlantic Region
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:09:30 pm »
Did this entire region lose?

W&L moves on.

Montclair, Rowan and Centre also advanced correct? But a rough opening weekend for this region outside of the NJAC...

6
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:06:37 pm »
MAF NCAA Picks

Round 32
Amherst
Keene
Mary Wash
Rowan
RPI
Midd
Messiah
Oneonta
JC

KZoo
Claremont
Trinity
F&M

Hobart
Behrend

UR
JHU
Conn
CNU
Swat
Tufts
WPI
W&L

Oglethorpe
Chicago
OWU
Luther

Central
Calvin
ONU
NP
GA


Sweet 16
Amherst
Rowan

Midd
Oneonta
Kzoo
Trinity
F&M
UR
JHU
CNU

Tufts
W&L
OWU
Luther
Calvin

GA

Elite 8
Amherst
Oneonta
Trinity
F&M
JHU

W&L
Luther
Calvin

Final 4
Amherst
F&M
W&L
Calvin

Final
Amherst
Calvin

Champion
Calvin (2-1)

 ::) ::) ::)

7
Men's soccer / Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
« on: November 12, 2019, 10:36:21 am »
MAF Pool C Projections
1. F&M
2. Amherst
3. RPI
4. Conn Coll
5. OWU
6. CNU
7. Rowan
8. ONU

9. Williams
10. Gettysburg
11. Central
12. Kalamazoo
13. Rochester
14. Middlebury
15. Swat
16. Hope
17. WPI

18. Loras
19. Otterbein
20. Colorado
21. Lycoming
-------------------------------
22. Brandeis
23. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is ahead of the other in region)
24. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is behind the other in region)
25. Haverford
26. North Central (Ill)
27. Oglethorpe
28. Wheaton (Ill)
29. Mt. Union
30. Trinity (Tx)
31. St. Thomas
32. Dickinson
33. Ramapo/Roanoke

Slots #18 thru #30 are a complete toss up as I can see any of those teams battling for the last 4 places of #18-#21.

17/21 (as mentioned 18-30 were toss ups  ;) )  Trinity getting to 3 ranked wins makes more sense now. Still perplexed that Otterbein got left out.

8
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance
« on: November 12, 2019, 10:22:58 am »
MAF NCAA Picks

Round 32
Amherst
Keene
Mary Wash
Rowan
RPI
Midd
Messiah
Oneonta
JC
KZoo
Claremont
Trinity
F&M
Hobart
Behrend
UR
JHU
Conn
CNU
Swat
Tufts
WPI
W&L
Oglethorpe
Chicago
OWU
Luther
Central
Calvin
ONU
NP
GA

Sweet 16
Amherst
Rowan
Midd
Oneonta
Kzoo
Trinity
F&M
UR
JHU
CNU
Tufts
W&L
OWU
Luther
Calvin
GA

Elite 8
Amherst
Oneonta
Trinity
F&M
JHU
W&L
Luther
Calvin

Final 4
Amherst
F&M
W&L
Calvin

Final
Amherst
Calvin

Champion
Calvin (2-1)


9
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: November 12, 2019, 10:14:26 am »
MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Johns Hopkins
16-2-1
0.627
6-2-1
16-2-1
1
2.
Franklin and Marshall
16-3-0
0.611
6-2-0
16-3-0
2
3.
Messiah
16-2-2
0.579
5-2-0
16-2-2
3
4.
Swarthmore
11-3-3
0.589
2-3-1
11-3-3
4
5.
Gettysburg
11-7-1
0.629
4-5-1
11-7-1
6
6.
Catholic
18-2-1
0.542
4-1-1
18-2-1
7
7.
Dickinson
10-8-0
0.631
4-7-0
10-8-0
8
8.
Haverford
9-6-3
0.621
2-4-2
9-6-3
5
9.
Lycoming
13-7-0
0.580
1-5-0
13-7-0
9
10.
Elizabethtown
11-6-2
0.582
1-5-0
11-6-2
10

I am not surprised with the top 6 or to even see Haverford ahead of Lycoming, as that was a toss up, but I am surprised to see Dickinson ahead of both Haverford and Lycoming. I did not see that coming with them being 1 game away from being a .500 record and Lycoming having the H2H result. The SOS and 4 ranked wins outweighed the win % and blemishes. 

10
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: November 11, 2019, 01:25:53 pm »
How many at large bids does the centennial conference get? Gettysburg, Haverford, Swat, and Dickinson all serious bubble teams.

F&M, Gettysburg and Swat safely in.

Fords on the bubble. Dickinson no chance. Think Lycoming can sneak in if they are ahead of the Fords. They will certainly jump Dickinson in the final rankings.

11
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: November 11, 2019, 10:23:35 am »
We are just over five and a half hours away from knowing for sure, but who do you think hosts in the mid-Atlantic for the first two rounds this weekend? Seems like Hopkins will host and I could see catholic being sent up to Baltimore with two weaker teams and F&M hosting with messiah and two weaker teams.

Messiah can't host since Messiah women host first weekend. But you will not see F&M playing Messiah the first weekend I doubt. They are both top 3  in the regional rankings so I don't think they would meet until sweet 16 if both are still alive. Perhaps a team like Eastern plays one of them first weekend. Messiah may end up in upstate NY which is common in recent years. Rochester, Hobart, Ithaca. Would be nice to get a crack at any of these teams given first weekend of the year losses to Hobart and Ithaca and last year elite 8 loss to Rochester. We will see soon enough.

Yes they may get sent to NY but doubt they would play a team they already played this year in the opening round. I believe the committee does their best to avoid pairing teams who have already played until at least the second weekend. Definitely not in the first round game and rarely in the second round games but usually for the regions out west.

I have never heard or read of any attempt to avoid re-matches of regular season games.  They try to avoid pairing members of the same conference in the first round.  In fact, and I'd have to look up if it was approved and for what time-frame, but their was a proposal for a pilot to not just try, but to guarantee that conference members do not play in round one.  Obviously out west, absolutely not allowing conference members to meet in the first round could potentially increase travel costs, but I think that is what they want to see in the pilot.

Not sure if there is a rule or not and come to think of it I think we have seen teams play in the second round games who may have played one another in the regular season. But I feel that you almost never see teams play against each other in the first round if they have played one another in the regular season. There might not be a rule so it's possible they could but I would be interested to see what you find if you dig for this info  ;D  It might not be a rule so it could happen but I feel like we rarely see teams playing each other in round 1 who played during the regular season until at least round 2. The more west the region though the better the chance that could happen I guess just due to the number of teams and bids etc. I do like the conference rule though but also understand it may not always be possible the more west you go as discussed already.

12
Men's soccer / Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
« on: November 11, 2019, 10:15:16 am »
First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Couple things...I think Lyco will jump both Dickinson and Haverford in the MA. Also, North Central IL is in the Central Region aren't they? You have them coming from the North Region. Just checking as they could switch things for your picks maybe? Maybe not?  :D  Also think you are undervaluing Rowan's resume a bit IMO. Also don't think we will see both Ithaca and Clarkson. Maybe 1. Maybe none. But not both IMO.

13
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: November 11, 2019, 10:10:43 am »
Final NCAA Predictions
1. JHU
2. F&M
3. Messiah
4. Gettysburg
5. Swat
6. Catholic
7. Lyco
8. Haverford
9. Dickinson
10. Etown or Eastern (probably Etown)

Understandably giving centennial teams a lot of respect and wisely since the committee seems to really value strength of schedule,  but in terms of the best teams in the mid-Atlantic my rankings are:
1. JHU
2. F&M
3. Messiah
4. Catholic
5. Swat
6. Gettysburg
7. Lycoming
8. Haverford
9. Dickinson
10. Eastern

I actually agree with your rankings if I was selecting them. Eastern only in as they won the Freedom but I can see an argument for them or Etown at the 10 slot. I think you hit the nail on the head with your rankings though. +K

14
Men's soccer / Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
« on: November 11, 2019, 10:09:05 am »
MAF Pool C Projections
1. F&M
2. Amherst
3. RPI
4. Conn Coll
5. OWU
6. CNU
7. Rowan
8. ONU
9. Williams
10. Gettysburg
11. Central
12. Kalamazoo
13. Rochester
14. Middlebury
15. Swat
16. Hope
17. WPI
18. Loras
19. Otterbein
20. Colorado
21. Lycoming
-------------------------------
22. Brandeis
23. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is ahead of the other in region)
24. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is behind the other in region)
25. Haverford
26. North Central (Ill)
27. Oglethorpe
28. Wheaton (Ill)
29. Mt. Union
30. Trinity (Tx)
31. St. Thomas
32. Dickinson
33. Ramapo/Roanoke

Slots #18 thru #30 are a complete toss up as I can see any of those teams battling for the last 4 places of #18-#21.

15
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
« on: November 11, 2019, 09:22:20 am »
Final NCAA Predictions
1. JHU
2. F&M
3. Messiah
4. Gettysburg
5. Swat
6. Catholic
7. Lyco
8. Haverford
9. Dickinson
10. Etown or Eastern (probably Etown)

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